份有限公司 ESECURITIES CO.,LTD. 2025 年 11 月 24 日 资讯晨报 | 新闻 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 近一交易日% 近20交易日% | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 道琼斯工业 | 45,809 | 46,245 | 1.08 | -2.04 | | 纳斯达克 | 22,163 | 22,273 | 0.88 | -4.02 | | 标普500 | 6,556 | 6.603 | 0.98 | -2.78 | | 高时100 | 9.528 | 9.540 | 0.13 | -1.10 | | 日经225 | 49.251 | 48,626 | -2.40 | -0.03 | | 上证清数 | 3.897 | 3.835 | -2.45 | -2.92 | | 深证指数 | 12,753 | 12,538 | -3.41 | -5.65 | | 科创50 | 1.300 | 1,286 | -3.19 | -12.06 | | 恒生指数 | 25,460 | 25,220 | -2.38 | -2.88 | | 主要市场股指表现 | ...

【数智产业周报整合近一周最重要的数字化技术和AI领域的前沿趋势、重磅政策及行研报告。】观点瑞银：继续交易AI叙事合理，维持超配中国 瑞银全球新兴市场股票首席策略师Sunil Tirumalai近日发布年度策略称，全球经济增长将从2026年初开始回升，发达市场财政扩张的全部益处可能会显现， 美联储资产负债表扩张和稳定币的积累使长端收益率处于可控范围。由于开展巨额投资的企业资产负债表空间充足，科技/AI投资可能持续。"现在是科 技/AI周期的早期阶段，整体环境接近见顶前1.5—2年。"他认为，当前微观情况是健康的，AI投资资金来自现金流，开展巨额投资的企业的杠杆率较低，估 值不高于其余市场。在新兴市场，确定AI受益者约占指数的23%，贡献2025年回报率的42%以上。预计2026年AI股票的每股收益增长可能保持20%以上， 2027年恢复常态。总的来说，继续交易AI叙事是合理的。 Sunil Tirumalai还提到，"我们更看好中国公司（相较于韩国）。它们是新兴市场独有的、面向消费者的AI股票，而且估值并未回升太多。MSCI中国仍是我 们在较大市场中的主要超配市场。" 又有大佬看空美国股市，"新债王"Gundl ...

11月24日，A股市场走势分化，硬科技板块延续回调，截至10:38，科创芯片50ETF（588750）探底回升，涨0.14%，早盘走出V字型态势。 科创芯片50ETF（588750）标的指数成分股涨跌不一，芯原股份、华虹公司一度跌超4%，随后跌幅收窄，中芯国际跌逾2%，拓荆科技、源 杰科技跌超1%；涨幅方面，海光信息涨超1%，天岳先进领涨超6%，峰岹科技、安集科技一度涨超3%，中微公司飘红。 【科创芯片50ETF（588750）标的指数前十大成分股】 | 序号 名称 | | 现价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交额▼ | 成交量 | 换手率 市盈率 | 总市值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 中不国际 | 110.01 | -2.65% | 35.62亿 | 3229万 | 1.61% | 183 5843亿 | | 2 | 寒武纪-U | 1256.59 | 0.61% | 34.73亿 | 280万 | 0.67% | 282 5299亿 | | 3 | 海光信息 | 209.10 | 1.36% | 16.69亿 | 806万 | ...

点击按钮▲立即预约 前10个月广义财政支出增速放缓至5.2% 11月20日消息，根据财政部最新数据测算，今年前10个月，广义财政（即全国一般公共预算和全国政府性基金预算）收入约22.1万亿元，同比 增长约0.2%；广义财政支出约30.7万亿元，同比增长约5.2%；广义财政支出超过收入约8.6万亿元，同比增长约21%。 尽管前10个月广义财政支出保持一定增长，不过第三季度支出增速持续放缓，其中10月份广义财政支出增速出现两位数下滑。根据今年初中央 与地方预算报告数据，2025年全年广义财政支出增速预计约9.3%，这一目标明显高于前10个月5.2%的增速。 业内人士认为 ，如需完成年初预 算，11至12月，全国一般公共预算支出需要达到同比增长12.9%，政府性基金支出同比增速需达到40.3%。（第一财经） ｜点评｜ 今年财政支出力度远超收入增长，为国内经济平稳运行提供了重要支撑。社会保障与就业支出是今年财政支出的主要增量方向，养 老、就业等领域的专项政策频出。同时，教育、科学技术方面的支出也保持了较高增速。中国前三季度GDP增速录得5.2%，与全年5%左右的目 标相近，只从数据上看，四季度经济增长压力不大。财政支 ...

风险提示：宏观经济需求和关键技术商业化进程低于预期。 >>以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已经发布的研究报 告： 聚焦内需新机遇与科技主题轮动 ， 具体分析内容（包括风险提示等） 请详见完 整版报告。 谷歌 Gemini 3 的发布标志着大模型技术进入新一轮 跃迁期。 阿里巴巴发布基于 Qwen 模型的个人 AI 助手"千问 App "。国务院办公厅印发《关于加快场 景培育和开放推动新场景大规模应用的实施意见》指出，加强人工智能领域高价值应用场景培育和开放。 模型迭代、强资本开支与国产化共振，AI应用催化 不断 。 国泰海通策略、计算机、电子、海外科技、传媒、非银等多 团队联合对AI应用进行解析。 一、研究报告 （点击标题查看报告） 二、深度报告节选 【策略】 聚焦内需新机遇与科技主题轮动 热点主题交易热度较十月降温，科技主题内部分化，消费蓝筹底部回升。看好内需消费新机遇与区域经济新格局。推荐：内需消费 / 新疆基建 /AI 应用 / 机 器人。 主题三： AI 应用。 阿里巴巴发布基于 Qwen 模型的个人 AI 助手"千问 App "。国务院办公厅印发《关于加快场景培育和开放推动新场景大规模应用的实施 意见》指 ...

Market Overview - On November 20, A-shares experienced a decline across all major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.40%, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 0.76%, and the ChiNext Index decreasing by 1.12% [1] - The overall market showed a correction trend, with only 1,453 stocks rising [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 17,082 billion RMB, slightly lower than the previous trading day [1] Index Performance - The following indices showed daily and year-to-date performance: - Shanghai Composite Index: -0.40% (YTD: +17.28%) - Shenzhen Component Index: -0.76% (YTD: +24.64%) - ChiNext Index: -1.12% (YTD: +42.06%) - STAR Market 50 Index: -1.24% (YTD: +34.30%) [2] Sector Performance - The construction materials sector led with a gain of 1.40%, followed by the comprehensive sector at 0.87% and the banking sector at 0.86% [6] - Conversely, the beauty and personal care sector saw a decline of 2.39%, coal fell by 2.10%, and electrical equipment dropped by 1.96% [6] Fund Flows - In terms of ETF categories, significant net inflows were observed in: - Hong Kong Technology (+2.954 billion) - Semiconductor Chips (+1.164 billion) - STAR Market 50 (+1.082 billion) - Notable net outflows included: - CSI 300 (-1.208 billion) - Battery Storage (-0.660 billion) - Banking sector (-0.597 billion) [7] Industry Insights - In the chemical sector, the phosphate iron lithium industry is facing significant losses, prompting the China Chemical and Physical Power Industry Association to release a notification to regulate industry development and pricing [8] - The lithium battery industry is projected to see a 26.75% year-on-year increase in exports, with a total industry output value expected to exceed 3 trillion RMB [8] - In the new energy vehicle sector, a draft for government procurement standards has been proposed to ensure fair treatment of suppliers [9] AI and Semiconductor Developments - The U.S. government is set to launch an initiative named "Genesis Mission" to advance AI development, which is considered as significant as the Manhattan Project [10] - NVIDIA plans to adopt 12-inch silicon carbide substrates in its next-generation GPU chips to enhance performance [11]

Core Viewpoint - The current performance of the U.S. stock market is not what bulls would hope for, with many stocks showing poor candlestick patterns despite high trading volumes [1] Group 1: Nvidia and AI Market Dynamics - Analyst Adam Button argues that Nvidia is in a bubble, especially after Google's Gemini 3 demonstrated the ability to create impressive large language models (LLMs) without Nvidia chips, indicating that other companies can also replicate this success [1] - Nvidia's significant market presence, accounting for 8% of the S&P 500 index, means that a potential halving of its stock value could directly reduce the index by 4 percentage points [1] - The overall AI sector is experiencing a bubble, raising concerns about a potential market correction [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Market Sentiment - Recent changes in the Federal Reserve's stance, particularly Powell's opposition to a rate cut in December, have shifted market expectations from a near-certain cut to only a 36% probability [1] - A less dovish Federal Reserve historically has not been favorable for the market, acting as a drag on performance [1] - The sentiment surrounding AI remains precarious, with the situation described as being "a fine line" [1]

Core Insights - The article highlights the rapid commercialization of AI products with significant releases from major companies like OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, Meta, and AppLovin, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards AI [1] Group 1: Key Events and Innovations - OpenAI launched Sora 2 and initiated the construction of an e-commerce ecosystem [1] - Anthropic released Claude Sonnet 4.5, showcasing advancements in AI capabilities [1] - Google introduced innovations in multimodal applications, enhancing user interaction [1] - Meta unveiled Ray-Ban Display AI glasses, integrating AI into wearable technology [1] - AppLovin developed a self-service advertising system, streamlining ad placements [1] Group 2: Market Outlook and Recommendations - CITIC Securities anticipates that as AI applications mature, the market will reconcile differences regarding AI commercialization efficiency and value creation [1] - There is an expectation for clearer long-term pricing of AI's value as commercial applications expand [1] - The focus for Q4 will be on the progress of AI-related products, particularly in advertising, e-commerce, and social media [1] - Upcoming catalysts to watch include Google Gemini 3 (expected in Q4) and Amazon re:Invent (on December 1) [1]