摘要 自 2023 年以来，TOKEN 使用成本显著下降，大幅降低企业使用大模型 的成本，提升经济回报，为 AI 应用的大规模启动奠定基础。中美两国自 2025 年 4 月起在 AI 领域加速发展。 2025 年一、二季度，OpenAI 发布 Deepseek R1 模型引发全球震撼， 加速应用端发展，国内推理和算力板块表现突出，芯片和 IDC 等领域涨 幅明显，应用端也出现显著行情。 科技产业投资遵循"硬三年、软三年、商业模式优三年"规律，目前正 处于从硬件向软件过渡的关键节点，大模型能力提升解锁更多应用场景， 预示 2026 年将是 AI 应用投资元年。 大模型能力显著提升，解决了诸多生活和生产力场景问题，算力使用成 本显著下降，产品成熟度提高，预计 2026 年底中美公司 AI 业务收入占 比将突破 10%，达到关键拐点。 中国大模型厂商如字节跳动、快手、阿里巴巴等在全球形成影响力，阿 里巴巴通过开源模式获得广泛认可，智谱和 Minimax 等创业公司表现 出色，中国大模型技术已具备国际竞争力。 Q&A 2026 年方正证券计算机组的年度投资策略是什么？ 2026 年方正证券计算机组的年度投资策略明确聚 ...

自9月中旬高点以来，甲骨文股价经历了-41%的剧烈回调。这不仅仅是一次技术性修正，更是市场对"OpenAI复合体"信心崩塌的直接映射。投资 者目前极为焦虑：OpenAI能否兑现其万亿美元级别的承诺？甲骨文高达880亿美元的净债务是否会压垮其资产负债表？ OpenAI信仰充值：资金到位与GPT-6的"救赎" 债务黑洞还是高明财技？表外融资与BYOC将拯救资产负债表 除了OpenAI的风险，投资者最担心的是甲骨文自身的资产负债表。截至2025年11月季度末，甲骨文净债务高达883亿美元，净债务/EBITDA比率 为2.8倍（若计入租赁负债，S&P评级视角下可能接近4倍）。为了维持投资级评级，甲骨文必须在巨额资本开支和债务之间走钢丝。 据追风交易台，瑞银在1月4日的最新研报中，对此给出了鲜明的反向观点，重申 "买入" 评级。瑞银认为，市场过度定价了OpenAI的违约风险和 甲骨文的融资压力。只要OpenAI完成新一轮融资、GPT-6在Q1如期发布，以及甲骨文通过"表外融资"手段缓解资本开支压力，市场叙事将在2026 年上半年发生根本性逆转。 对于投资者而言，目前甲骨文基于2026年预期收益的市盈率为29倍，基于20 ...

2025 年 AI 大模型行业迎来结构性变革，竞争从单纯的能力竞赛转向可持续性比拼，技术范式、市场格局、应用形态与全球治理四大维度的深刻转变，共同 重塑行业发展轨迹。 技术层面实现多重突破性演进。训练范式从依赖主观反馈的 RLHF 全面转向客观可验证的 RLVR，模型通过自我检验实现推理能力飞跃，成为年度最关键技 术拐点。混合专家（MoE）架构强势回潮，以稀疏激活模式平衡参数规模与计算成本，实现性价比极致追求。多智能体自我博弈与合成数据微调成为常态， 模型摆脱对人类标注的依赖，同时检索增强生成（RAG）成为企业级应用标配，有效解决幻觉与知识时效性问题。此外，模型呈现 "锯齿化" 能力结构，在 数学、编程等形式化智力领域突飞猛进，却在常识推理上仍存短板。 新王登基: 京 谷歌Gemini 3全面 国模型以惊人的成 市场格局呈现集中化与民主化双重张力。谷歌 Gemini 3 凭借自研 TPU v5 芯片与多模态优势，终结 OpenAI 长期领先地位，中国模型以成本效益实现弯道超 车。市场向头部集中，Anthropic 等顶尖初创企业获巨额融资，二三线玩家面临出清，但开源浪潮形成制衡，阿里通义千问、01.ai Yi ...

Core Insights - OpenAI officially released the GPT-5.2 series model on December 11, showcasing significant advancements in reasoning, professional knowledge work, financial modeling, and productivity tools like PPT/Excel, surpassing previous generations and leading in multiple reasoning benchmark tests against Google's Gemini 3 [1] - The global AI arms race is intensifying, with OpenAI being pressured by competitors like Google and Anthropic, prompting accelerated development of large models [1] - The recent approval of NVIDIA's H200 chip for export to China, which has nearly six times the performance of the previous H20 chip, is expected to alleviate the domestic high-end computing power shortage and accelerate AI computing infrastructure development in China [1] Industry Implications - The breakthroughs in large model speed and stability will drive increased demand for AI training and inference computing power, impacting the global supply chain for core hardware components such as servers, specialized chips, optical modules, advanced packaging, high-speed interconnects, high-bandwidth storage, liquid cooling, and copper cables [1] - Despite the easing of restrictions on the H200 chip, the U.S. strategy to maintain long-term control over core computing power in China remains unchanged, emphasizing the urgency for domestic self-sufficiency in computing power [2] - The acceleration of AI computing infrastructure in China is expected to benefit various segments related to computing power, including server manufacturing, high-bandwidth memory (HBM), optical modules, PCBs, copper cables, and liquid cooling, highlighting potential investment opportunities in leading companies within these sectors [2]

Group 1: Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in trading activity for key themes, particularly in commercial aerospace, energy independence, AI applications, and domestic consumption, driven by improved market risk appetite and supportive macroeconomic policies [2][3][5]. Group 2: Commercial Aerospace - The upcoming launch of the Long March 12 reusable rocket and the completion of ground tests for the Tianlong 3 rocket are significant milestones, with China's StarNet completing a network of 127 low-orbit satellites, accelerating its deployment [3][20][25]. - The National Space Administration's action plan for commercial aerospace emphasizes the development of new technologies and products, predicting a tenfold increase in satellite launch demand by 2030 compared to 2024 [3][20][25]. - Investment recommendations include focusing on rocket manufacturing, satellite communication, and new technologies such as reusable rockets [21][25]. Group 3: Energy Independence - The central government emphasizes accelerating the construction of a new energy system and expanding green electricity applications, with a target of 25% non-fossil energy consumption by 2030 [5][22][35]. - The share of clean energy in total installed capacity has reached 60%, with 84% of new capacity in the first ten months of 2025 coming from clean sources [22][35][39]. - Investment directions include smart grids, new energy storage solutions, and nuclear fusion energy [22][35]. Group 4: AI Applications - The report notes significant growth in AI applications, with Alibaba's Qianwen app experiencing a 149.03% increase in monthly active users, leading globally [23][41]. - The government aims for over 70% penetration of new-generation intelligent terminals and systems by 2027, with a target of over 90% by 2030 [23][41]. - Investment opportunities are identified in internet applications across various sectors, including finance, gaming, and government services, as well as in data center power equipment [23][41]. Group 5: Domestic Consumption - The central government is focused on boosting domestic consumption through various initiatives, including enhancing the supply of quality goods and services [5][47]. - New consumption scenarios, such as sports events and winter tourism, are emerging, with the ice and snow sports market projected to exceed 187.5 billion yuan in the 2024-2025 season, reflecting a 25% year-on-year growth [47][48]. - Investment recommendations include sectors benefiting from consumption promotion measures, such as tourism, hotels, and sports equipment [47][48].

Group 1 - The executive order signed by President Trump aims to limit state regulations on artificial intelligence (AI) and establish a national framework to maintain the U.S.'s leadership in the global AI sector [1][2] - The order directs the formation of an "AI Litigation Task Force" to challenge state laws that conflict with the administration's vision for light regulation of AI [1][2] - The order also requires the identification of state laws that impose burdensome requirements on AI models, which aligns with previous efforts to prevent what the administration terms "woke AI" [1][2] Group 2 - The executive order follows the failure of Congress to pass similar policies, highlighting the administration's push for a unified federal standard over state regulations [2][3] - Critics argue that the order may hinder meaningful AI regulation and express skepticism about Congress's ability to replace existing state laws with national standards [3][4] - The political debate surrounding AI regulation has intensified, with calls for effective laws addressing various concerns, including corporate power and consumer protection [4][5] Group 3 - The order reflects a broader trend among Republicans to prioritize federal AI legislation, especially as states like California and New York implement their own regulations [6][7] - Key figures in Silicon Valley, including Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang, have expressed concerns that disparate state regulations threaten U.S. technological advancement [7][8] - The executive order is part of a series of initiatives by the Trump administration aimed at reducing regulatory burdens and enhancing investment in AI [8][9] Group 4 - The "Genesis Plan," launched by the Trump administration, aims to significantly enhance U.S. scientific research capabilities in AI, drawing comparisons to historical initiatives like the Manhattan Project [8][9] - The implementation of the executive order could lower compliance costs for tech companies and accelerate their expansion in the AI sector, potentially benefiting stocks of companies like Nvidia and Google [9]

Core Insights - The article discusses the evolution of AI search engines, highlighting the shift from traditional link-based search to AI-driven solutions that provide direct answers and enhance user experience [3][4][6][12]. Group 1: Strategic Shift - Traditional search engines are experiencing a decline, with Google's global market share dropping below 90% for the first time in a decade [8]. - AI applications like ChatGPT and Perplexity are gaining traction, with ChatGPT reaching over 700 million weekly active users and covering about 10% of the adult population globally [8][12]. Group 2: Product Form - AI search engines are redefining user interaction through conversational interfaces, allowing for multi-turn dialogues and direct answers, which enhances the efficiency of information retrieval [14][15]. - The integration of multimodal capabilities enables AI search to process voice, images, and videos, expanding its application across various devices and contexts [15]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The AI search market is diversifying into four evolutionary paths: traditional search engine upgrades, native AI search engines, ecosystem integration, and vertical service-driven solutions [20][21][23][24]. - The global search engine market is projected to grow from $204.76 billion in 2024 to $421.42 billion by 2031, indicating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.0% [37]. Group 4: Value Chain Transformation - The demand for high-quality, structured data is increasing, leading to a revaluation of first-party data as a critical asset for AI training [27]. - Marketing strategies are shifting from Search Engine Optimization (SEO) to Answer Engine Optimization (AEO), focusing on making content more suitable for AI consumption [29][30]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The article emphasizes the need for a sustainable value distribution mechanism among platforms, brands, creators, and users to ensure long-term ecosystem prosperity [36]. - The transformation in search capabilities is driven by the necessity to address user needs more effectively, moving from mere information retrieval to actionable insights and solutions [35][37].

数据显示，截至2025年11月28日，国证通信指数前十大权重股分别为中际旭创、新易盛、中兴通讯、中 国电信、中国移动、中国联通、天孚通信、中天科技、亨通光电、闻泰科技，前十大权重股合计占比 67.58%。 通信ETF(159695)紧密跟踪国证通信指数，一键布局光通信产业链。 场外投资者可以通过通信ETF联接基金（019072）布局AI变革下的光通信投资机遇。 2025年12月8日A股三大指数高开高走，截至10:53，国证通信指数强势上涨4.30%，成分股天孚通信上 涨17.29%，光库科技上涨14.91%，致尚科技上涨13.21%，联特科技，德科立等个股跟涨。 消息面，OpenAI正计划通过即将推出的GPT-5.2，对谷歌Gemini 3作出首次回应。GPT-5.2预计将提前至 12月9日发布。12月1日，OpenAI首席执行官山姆•奥特曼曾在内部备忘录中告知员工，他将启动"红色 警报"紧急状态以改进ChatGPT。 根据中金公司预测，在头部科技企业加速部署自研AI ASIC集群的背景下，有望驱动光模块需求在2026 年继续维持高增长，其中对800G/1.6T的需求有望达到4000万/2000万只以上（25 ...

2、上周五美股三大指数小幅收涨，SanDisk涨超7%，中概指数涨1.3%； 3、纽约期银创历史新高，逼近60美元整数位心理关口； 登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 格隆汇12月8日｜国际要闻： 1、本周大事提醒(12月8日-14日)：美联储议息会议召开、国内将迎政策超级周； 4、美联储12月降息25个基点的概率为86.2%； 5、美银警告：美联储鸽派降息恐终结股市涨势； 6、花旗预计未来6至12个月铜价将涨至每吨1.3万美元； 7、重大转向！美国新版国家安全战略：将调整与中国的经济关系 以互惠平等为原则 重振美国经济自主 地位； 8、特朗普下令调查食品行业潜在价格操纵行为； 4、国家卫健委：美容院、养生馆等非医疗机构不得开展干细胞治疗活动； 5、证监会：强化信息披露监管 规范并购重组行为 加强投资者保护； 9、马斯克旗下社交平台X因违反欧盟内容法规被处以1.2亿欧元罚款； 10、OpenAI宣布"红色警报"，将于下周发布GPT-5.2应对谷歌Gemini 3竞争； 11、SpaceX估值超越OpenAI 成为美国最大非上市公司； 12、瑞银再次挥舞裁员大刀 拟在2027年前再削减万名职位； ...

本周全球金融市场重磅事件频发。国内来看，金融监管总局调降保险公司股票投资风险因子，支持稳定和活跃资本市 场；证监会将对优质机构适当"松绑"，进一步优化风控指标，适度打开资本空间和杠杆限制；国产GPU第一股"摩尔 线程在科创板上市。 海外来看，周一盘前日本央行加息预期发酵，重挫亚太股市；美国11月"小非农"创两年半来最大降幅；特朗普内 定"白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特担任美联储主席；美国9月核心PCE物价指数同比上涨2.8%，环比上涨0.2%，基本 符合市场预期。 | 证券代码 | 证券名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | 年涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | KS11.Gl | 韩国综合指数 | 4.42 | 70.87 | | RTS.GI | 俄罗斯RTS | 4.15 | 25.66 | | 399006.SZ | 创业板指 | 1.86 | 45.19 | | TWII.GI | 台湾加权 | 1.28 | 21.47 | | 399001.SZ | 深证成指 | 1.26 | 26.24 | | HSTECH.HI | 恒生科技指数 | 1.13 | 26.73 | | ...