证券研究报告 | 2025年12月25日 | 晨会纪要 | | --- | | 数据日期:2025-12-24 | 上证综指 | 深证成指沪深 | 300 指数 | 中小板综指 | 创业板综指 | 科创 50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘指数（点） | 3940.94 | 13486.41 | 4634.05 | 14415.35 | 3911.33 | 1352.12 | | 涨跌幅度（%） | 0.53 | 0.87 | 0.28 | 1.15 | 1.21 | 0.90 | | 成交金额（亿元） | 7739.28 | 11063.39 | 4063.75 | 3992.53 | 5025.69 | 510.88 | 【常规内容】 宏观与策略 策略快评:国信资配体系概览-低利率时代资产配置攻略 行业与公司 电子行业周报：电子上游通胀趋势延续，业绩预告期继续推荐存力+算力 农业行业快评:牧业大周期更新点评-重视牧业大周期反转，肉奶联动有 望打开成长空间 滔搏(06110.HK) 海外公司快评:三季度流水下滑高单位数，折扣同比加 深幅度 ...

摘要 2026 年全球手机市场预计小幅下滑，中低端安卓手机承压，但 AI 手机 新品值得期待；PC 市场受存储涨价影响，AI PC 升级周期或启动，需关 注其对市场的影响。 服务器需求持续旺盛，预计 2025 年全年资本开支增长 60%-70%，企 业收入同比双位数增长，此趋势预计持续。AI 相关功率半导体市场潜力 巨大，2030 年市场规模预计达 80-120 亿欧元。 DRAM 和 NAND 资本开支在 2026 年预计分别增长 14%和 5%，但受 洁净室空间限制，出货量增长有限。国内存储原厂持续扩产，市占率有 望提升，将受益于存储原厂扩展周期和算力需求增加。 全球晶圆代工行业资本开支预计同比增长 13%，台积电先进制程产能贡 献较大，中芯国际和华虹也将释放新增产能。台积电预计 2026 年底 COBOS 月产量达 12.7 万片，英伟达预定一半以上产能。 四季度 DRAM 和 NAND 现货价格持续上涨，DSI 指数创历史新高，对 手机、PC 等终端产品成本构成挑战，可能导致规格配置缩减或暂缓升级。 存储价格上涨将增加手机与 PC 成本压力。 Q&A 存储和逻辑产能持续扩张，把握设备及算力芯片自主可控 ...

南方财经 21世纪经济报道记者胡慧茵 吉隆坡报道 11月，马来西亚半导体产业发展迎来关键进展——由马来西亚政府和雪州资讯科技及数码经济机构共同 推动的第二个半导体集成电路设计园正式开幕，这是马来西亚发展半导体战略的又一重要落点。 近年来，马来西亚持续推动国家传统优势产业向高端化方向发展。2024年，马来西亚总理安瓦尔公布了 国家半导体产业战略，为产业发展设置了目标与路线图，要将马来西亚打造成全球半导体中心。 《21世纪》：11月，由雪兰莪州政府与雪兰莪信息技术与数字经济公司（SIDEC）联合打造的半导体集 成电路（IC）设计园二期正式落成启用。为什么要建立集成电路设计的二期园区？园区在吸引科研人 才与创新力量方面有哪些规划？ 杨凯斌：去年8月，我们推动的半导体设计园一期园区正式运营。17个月后，我们又迎来了二期园区落 成。该项目旨在推动马来西亚集成电路产业从过去的代工制造向自主设计与品牌化转型，因此我们引入 并建设集成电路设计园区，以支持本土集成电路设计公司发展壮大。 目前，两个园区共吸引了约17家企业入驻，其中约半数为马来西亚本土集成电路设计公司，另一半为国 内外合资或联营企业。另外，园区已吸引了约200名 ...

但中国在硅产业领域的绝对优势，成为破解技术封锁的关键底气。工信部 2025 年 2 月披露数据显示， 2024 年中国多晶硅产量达 182 万吨，同比增长 23.6%，全球占比稳定在 90% 以上，硅锭、硅片产量分 别突破 800GW 和 753GW，产能占比均超 85%。质量层面，中国光伏级硅料纯度已实现 99.9999% 以 上，电子级多晶硅通过台积电、三星认证，完全满足 14nm 以下先进制程芯片生产需求。 《硅和平宣言》的落地面临多重现实挑战，其 "技术脱钩" 目标难以实现。首先是产业链融合的不可逆 转性，全球半导体产业已形成 "你中有我、我中有你" 的格局：中国是全球最大的半导体消费市场，占 全球需求的 35%，同时掌控稀土加工、电子元器件等关键环节，美国盟友若完全 "去中国化"，将导致 供应链断裂与成本飙升。 面对美方的战略围堵，中国采取 "自主创新 + 开放合作" 的双重应对策略。在自主可控领域，中国加速 推进半导体设备国产化，2024 年光刻机、蚀刻机等关键设备国产化率突破 30%，中芯国际 14nm 制程 产能稳步提升，华为海思推出新一代 AI 芯片，打破外部封锁。在开放合作层面，中国持续扩 ...

IBM 商业价值研究院 | 中国洞察 致胜硅之赛局 三大战略护航 AI 领先优势 中国洞察 IBM 如何提供帮助 在当今各行各业中，AI 战略已处于核心地位，而确保由高 性能半导体所支撑的计算能力稳定供给，对于 AI 体系的韧 性至关重要。IBM 提供成熟且经过市场验证的 CIM/MES 解 决方案，帮助客户实现稳定高效的晶圆、芯片的制造和封装。 在半导体运营方面，IBM 运用 AI 技术来提升产品开发效率 并优化制造流程。通过结合先进的数据分析与预测性维护， IBM 助力客户提升产品良率并保障运营的可靠性。 如 需 了 解 更 多 信 息， 请 访 问：https://www.ibm.com/ consulting SEMI 如何提供帮助 随着 AI 需求激增、供应链承压，SEMI 正在为行业构建韧 性平台。我们通过会员主导的系列倡议，聚焦四大关键优 先领域：智能数据与 AI、供应链韧性、人才发展与可持 续发展。SEMI 拥有超过 30 个技术社区⸺从先进封装到 晶圆厂业主协会⸺促进专业知识共享，推动下一代技术 创新。 SEMI 的全球性活动与专题会议，正在积极促成这份报告中 所强调的供应商与买家的关键合作 ...

Core Viewpoint - The CEO of Nvidia, Jensen Huang, stated that China will win the AI competition, highlighting the advantages of China's regulatory environment and lower energy costs as key factors in this assertion [5][6]. Group 1: China's Key Advantages - China benefits from a more favorable regulatory environment, which is described as "efficient and agile," providing certainty for AI industry development. In contrast, Western countries are mired in skepticism and regulatory hurdles that may stifle innovation [8]. - Lower energy costs in China are a significant advantage for AI development, as data centers, which are crucial for AI operations, incur high energy expenses. Huang emphasized that Chinese tech giants can maintain AI operations at lower costs due to substantial energy subsidies [8][9]. Group 2: Timing and Industry Landscape - Huang's comments came at a critical time following a recent summit between US and Chinese leaders, where discussions on Nvidia's latest Blackwell chip sales to China were not included in the agenda, complicating Nvidia's market strategies [10]. - The rise of China's AI capabilities is evident, with local labs like DeepSeek producing advanced language models that challenge the technological edge of companies like OpenAI and Anthropic [10]. Group 3: Nvidia's Market Dilemma and Interests - Nvidia, which holds over 80% of the global AI chip market, has seen its market share decline from 27% in China to a complete exit due to escalating US export controls [12]. - The company has faced challenges in adapting its product offerings for the Chinese market, including the introduction of downgraded chips and special versions for China, but these efforts have been met with obstacles [12]. - Huang's statements reflect a recognition of China's AI strength and serve as a message to the US government that market openness is essential for mutual benefit, as policies that harm China may ultimately hurt the US [12].

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the importance of short-term style switching in November, as it is a critical window for portfolio adjustments ahead of the spring market rally, which typically starts in December [2][3] - The report notes that the market's upward momentum is limited due to various uncertainties, with the effective breakthrough of the psychological barrier at 4000 points being challenging [1][2] - Institutional behavior in the fourth quarter often leads to profit-taking in previously strong sectors, creating a potential for style rotation [2][3] Group 2 - The report suggests a balanced allocation strategy in the short term to navigate market volatility during the style switching period, while maintaining a long-term positive outlook on technology growth stocks [3][4] - The report identifies key investment opportunities in sectors such as AI, energy storage, and environmental protection, highlighting specific companies like Dongtu Technology and Hunan Youneng [6][21][26] - The report provides a list of recommended stocks, including Dongtu Technology, Hunan Youneng, and Longjing Environmental Protection, along with their financial metrics and growth potential [7][74] Group 3 - Dongtu Technology is recognized for its advanced industrial operating system, which has achieved multiple safety certifications and is positioned to benefit from the growing demand for AI-driven solutions [13][14] - Hunan Youneng is projected to see significant profit growth, with expected net profits of 10.6 billion, 30.1 billion, and 40.3 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, driven by strong demand in the energy storage sector [21][22] - Longjing Environmental Protection is expected to benefit from its green electricity and energy storage projects, with a forecasted net profit of 12.3 billion, 15.3 billion, and 17.5 billion for the same period [26][28] Group 4 - The report highlights the potential for macroeconomic factors to influence market dynamics, with a focus on the impact of U.S. interest rate cuts and global liquidity conditions on growth stocks [3][4] - The report indicates that the technology sector remains a key area for investment, with a continued emphasis on growth despite short-term market fluctuations [3][4] - The report outlines the financial forecasts for various companies, indicating a positive outlook for sectors such as chemicals, automotive, and internet media, with specific earnings projections provided [60][63][68]

Core Insights - The importance of optimism in the AI era is emphasized, suggesting that believing in a better future is crucial for innovation and progress [1][2][7] - The concept of "Protopia" is introduced, indicating a gradual improvement in society rather than a perfect utopia [2][6] AI Development and Future - The development of artificial intelligence (AI) is seen as a slow process, requiring new approaches beyond merely increasing the size of language models [2][3] - AI is expected to create a vast ecosystem of intelligent agents that will perform various tasks and interact with each other, potentially leading to an economy larger than that of humans [3][4] Human-AI Collaboration - AI is viewed as a tool for empowerment rather than replacement, enhancing human capabilities in various fields such as customer service and complex problem-solving [4][5] - The future workforce will depend on the ability to collaborate with AI, with new job roles emerging in AI maintenance and emotional support [4][5] China's Role in AI and Innovation - China is predicted to transition from a "student" to a "teacher" in the global innovation landscape, leading in areas such as gaming, autonomous vehicles, and AI chip manufacturing [5][6] - The educational system in China needs to adapt to foster critical thinking and creativity, preparing students for jobs that do not yet exist [5][6] Embracing Failure and Continuous Learning - Embracing failure is highlighted as essential for innovation, with a call for educational systems to teach resilience alongside success [6][7] - Lifelong learning is emphasized as a necessity for future job markets, where adaptability will be key [6][7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not explicitly provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Despite short - term market volatility, the expectations of corporate profit improvement and policy support are clear. In the short - term, the domestic demand sector may take the lead, while the technological revolution and manufacturing recovery form the long - term investment mainlines. A - shares are currently reasonably undervalued and attractive to foreign investors. The technology sector remains the most promising and certain area in the long - run, and short - term fluctuations do not hinder long - term optimism. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Thursday, the value - cycle indices of the two markets were consolidating, and the growth indices were adjusting. The total trading volume of the two markets was 1.93 trillion yuan, showing a shrinking volume and a continued decrease in selling pressure. The CSI 300 index closed at 4,618 points, up 12 points or 0.26%; the SSE 50 index closed at 3,019 points, up 17 points or 0.59%; the CSI 500 index closed at 7,231 points, down 62 points or - 0.86%; the CSI 1000 index closed at 7,401 points, down 81 points or - 1.09%. Among industry and theme ETFs, coal ETF, communication equipment ETF, energy ETF, bank ETF, and dividend state - owned enterprise ETF led the gains, while rare earth ETF, steel ETF, and robot 50ETF led the losses. Among the sector indices of the two markets, coal mining, insurance, national banks, coke processing, and oil and gas extraction indices led the gains, while rare metals, forestry, metal new materials, precious metals, and wind power equipment indices led the losses. The net inflow of settled funds in the SSE 50 index stock index futures was 1.5 billion yuan. [1] 3.2 Important Information - As of the end of September, China's M2 balance was 335.38 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.4%, 0.4 percentage points lower than at the end of last month. The balance of narrow - sense money (M1) was 113.15 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%, indicating accelerated monetary activity. - An investment fund AIP jointly established by BlackRock, NVIDIA, and Microsoft announced a $40 billion deal to acquire Aligned, a data center giant under Macquarie Asset Management, one of the largest data center transactions in history. - The demand for AI chips remains strong. TSMC's Q3 net profit reached a record high, exceeding expectations by 39%. TSMC's CEO said that AI demand remains strong and will be robust throughout 2025. - Morgan Stanley pointed out that high - quality electric vehicles have become the industry standard, and the real innovation opportunities in the automotive industry lie in the breakthrough of the AI ecosystem, proposing the "3A" opportunities of autonomous driving, AI embodiment, and AI data centers. - Goldman Sachs' chief global equity strategist said that although the valuation of the technology sector has risen, it has not reached the level of a historical bubble. The current rise of technology stocks is mainly driven by fundamental growth. - As of October 14, the total scale of gold - themed ETFs, including commodity - type and stock - type, was close to 210 billion yuan, attracting over 80 billion yuan of funds this year. Since October 9, the net inflow of gold - themed ETFs has exceeded 10 billion yuan. - The Fed's Beige Book showed that the employment level generally remained stable, but most regions reported that more employers were reducing their workforce through layoffs or natural attrition due to weak demand, economic uncertainty, and increased investment in AI. - Options trading linked to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) showed that traders are betting that the Fed will cut interest rates by at least 50 basis points at its meeting later this month or in December. - The Fed's Standing Repurchase Facility (SRF) was suddenly used for $6.75 billion, the highest non - quarter - end level since the pandemic, exposing a rapid market funding gap and raising concerns about the next liquidity crisis. [1][2] 3.3 Market Logic - On Thursday, the value - cycle indices of the two markets were consolidating, and the growth indices were adjusting. On October 10, the net subscription amount of equity - type ETFs totaled 31.488 billion yuan, second only to April 7 and 8 this year. On October 13, over 20 billion yuan of funds entered the market, and the net subscription amount of equity - type ETFs was 24.614 billion yuan. Many securities firms said that despite short - term market volatility, the expectations of corporate profit improvement and policy support are clear. In the short - term, the domestic demand sector may take the lead, while the technological revolution and manufacturing recovery form the long - term investment mainlines. Many foreign institutions believe that the current valuation of A - shares is reasonably low, which is attractive for global diversified allocation and hedging against US dollar asset risks. [2] 3.4 Market Outlook - On Thursday, the value - cycle indices of the two markets were narrowly fluctuating, and the growth indices were adjusting, with the market in a defensive mode. The Fed chairman hinted at a normal interest rate cut in October, and the market is betting on a 50 - basis - point cut in December. The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was raised to 7.10 yuan, indicating a continuous inflow of foreign capital into RMB assets. In the future, the technology sector remains the most promising and certain area, and short - term fluctuations do not hinder long - term optimism. Stock index futures long positions should be mainly allocated to the CSI 300 index. [2] 3.5 Trading Strategies - Stock index futures directional trading: The Fed chairman hinted at a normal interest rate cut in October. The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was raised to 7.10 yuan, indicating a continuous inflow of foreign capital into RMB assets. The market is in a defensive state, and stock index futures long positions should be mainly allocated to the CSI 300 index. - Stock index option trading: Seize the opportunity to buy far - month deep - out - of - the - money call options on the CSI 300 index. [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][39] Core Views - The global AI infrastructure construction is entering an accelerated phase, with significant investments from major companies like NVIDIA and Alibaba [1][4] - The semiconductor sector is experiencing high growth, particularly in AI-related applications, with a focus on domestic chip supply chains [4][19] - The report highlights the importance of AI and semiconductor industries as transformative technologies for the next decade, predicting a tenfold increase in total computing power by 2035 [4][19] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The electronic sector saw a weekly increase of 3.51% from September 22 to September 26, with the semiconductor equipment sector leading at 15.56% [7][8] - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index experienced a slight decline but remains in a rebound channel since April 2025 [12][17] Key Company Updates - NVIDIA plans to invest up to $100 billion in AI infrastructure for OpenAI, with a deployment of at least 10 GW of systems expected by late 2026 [4] - Micron Technology reported Q4 FY2025 revenue of $11.32 billion, a 46% year-over-year increase, with DRAM revenue at $9 billion, up 69% year-over-year [4] - Alibaba is advancing its AI infrastructure with a planned investment of $380 billion, aiming for a tenfold increase in data center energy consumption by 2032 [4] Price Trends - DRAM prices are on the rise, with DDR5 prices increasing from $6.927 to $7.475 between September 22 and September 26 [23] - TV panel prices are expected to remain stable in September, with adjustments in production to balance supply and demand [19][20] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the entire domestic chip supply chain, including companies like SMIC, Huahong, and Cambrian [4] - Continued attention is recommended for the AI PCB industry chain, with key companies including Shenghong Technology and Huadian Technology [4]