August 22, 2025 12:16 PM GMT CSPC Pharmaceutical Group | Asia Pacific 2025 Guidance Recalibrated after Soft 2Q; BD Targets and Sustainability Reiterated Key Takeaways Target 5% HoH growth in 2H25 and double-digit (%) growth from 202e:6: Mingfule is on track to hit Rmb1bn in sales in 2025. NBP soft capsule sales were hurt by tightened hospital budget control in 1H. CSPC plans to strengthen its out-of- pocket retail channel to sustain Rmb2bn sales after patent expiry. EGFR ADC updates ( Exhibit 1 ): Global Ph ...

Summary of the Conference Call for Lepu Biopharma Company Overview - **Company**: Lepu Biopharma - **Industry**: Biopharmaceuticals, specifically focusing on Antibody-Drug Conjugates (ADCs) Key Points and Arguments 1. **Patent Dispute with CSPC**: Lepu Biopharma is involved in a patent dispute with CSPC following CSPC's acquisition of Jinmant. CSPC is currently seeking to invalidate Lepu's antibody patent, which could impact the commercialization of the EGFR ADC [2][3][4] 2. **Clinical Development**: Lepu's GP104 ADC is in Phase I trials and shows promise in treating second-line liver cancer, with plans to present detailed data at the SGO conference in 2026 [2][5] 3. **Revenue Growth**: Lepu Biopharma reported a revenue of 368 million RMB in 2024, a 63% increase year-on-year. The company anticipates its core product MRG003 will be launched by late 2025 or early 2026, with an expected profit of over 20 million RMB in 2025 [2][6] 4. **NDA Submission**: The EGFR ADC (MRG003) for nasopharyngeal carcinoma has submitted a New Drug Application (NDA) and received priority review status, expected to be approved in early 2026 [2][6] 5. **Platform Upgrade**: The ADC platform has been upgraded from second-generation to third-generation, enhancing its potential for international collaboration, as evidenced by licensing agreements with AstraZeneca and Arrivant totaling 1.2 billion USD [2][7] 6. **Pipeline and Market Potential**: Lepu's pipeline focuses on unmet clinical needs in major diseases such as pancreatic cancer, liver cancer, and colorectal cancer, indicating a strategic direction towards high-demand therapeutic areas [2][5][10] 7. **Clinical Data**: Recent data from the SGO conference showed that Lepu's ADC outperformed chemotherapy in terms of Objective Response Rate (ORR) and Progression-Free Survival (PFS), with a notable safety profile [3][11] 8. **Market Size**: The combined peak sales potential for nasopharyngeal and head and neck squamous cell carcinoma is estimated at 2.7 billion RMB, with head and neck cancer representing a larger market opportunity [12] 9. **Future Catalysts**: Key upcoming events include the presentation of clinical data at the ESMO conference in October 2025 and the potential for breakthrough therapy designation for the 004 drug, which would enhance its market entry prospects [9][10] 10. **Valuation**: Lepu Biopharma's valuation is based on pipeline progress and projected sales multiples, estimated at approximately 22.4 billion HKD, indicating room for growth in the current market [19] Other Important but Overlooked Content - **Acquisition Strategy**: Lepu has grown through mergers and acquisitions, integrating various small companies and collaborating on multiple projects, which strengthens its market position [10] - **Emerging Technologies**: The company is also exploring the use of oncolytic viruses, with plans for a BLA submission in the U.S. by the end of 2025, which could further diversify its product offerings [8][10] - **Competitive Landscape**: The ADC market is competitive, with several companies, including Innovent and AstraZeneca, developing similar products, highlighting the need for Lepu to maintain a strong clinical and commercial strategy [16][17] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, focusing on Lepu Biopharma's current status, future prospects, and the competitive landscape within the biopharmaceutical industry.

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Dongwu Securities has given a "buy" rating for XinNuoWei (300765.SZ) based on its performance and potential in the biopharmaceutical sector [2] - The company experienced a slight revenue growth in H1, but a significant decline in profits [2] - The EGFR ADC data presented at the AACR conference is seen as a potential "blockbuster" drug, indicating strong future prospects [2] - The company is actively increasing its investment in research and development, focusing on ADC, mRNA, and monoclonal antibody drugs [2]

Core Viewpoint - The investment landscape for innovative drugs in 2025 is expected to be clear and profitable, particularly for those with overseas market potential, but selecting stocks will be challenging due to market sentiment and rapid shifts in hot sectors [2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Over 50 stocks have increased by more than 30% this year, with around 30 of these related to innovative drugs, indicating a strong correlation between stock performance and the innovative drug sector [3]. - Innovative drug assets, with clear labeling, have an average increase of 50%, with a median increase of 35% [4]. Group 2: High-Elasticity Stocks and Their Logic - Stocks like Shuyatong and Yipanghong have seen significant price increases due to their innovative drug targets and clinical progress, with Shuyatong's stock rising fourfold in two months [5][6]. - Sanofi's PD-1/VEGF dual antibody has doubled its market value due to a lucrative deal, showcasing the impact of strategic partnerships on stock performance [6]. - Yifang Bio's stock surged by 150% following positive clinical data, highlighting the importance of clinical trial results in driving stock prices [7]. - Stocks like Hot Scene Bio and Rongchang Bio have experienced substantial increases due to market sentiment and clinical data releases, with increases of 300% and 130% respectively [7][8]. Group 3: Characteristics of Innovative Drug Market - Stocks that have significantly outperformed typically have either strong clinical data or are widely recognized drugs, such as Yipanghong's gout medication and Taienkang's vitiligo treatment [10]. - The current market phase is characterized by a focus on pipeline exploration, with investors looking for promising clinical-stage products [13]. Group 4: Future Market Trends - Key events to watch for in the innovative drug sector include business development (BD) transactions, important data releases from clinical trials, and the potential for overvaluation leading to market corrections [15].

Core Viewpoint - The company is facing significant pressure from centralized procurement and medical insurance cost control in Q1 2025, but is expected to see gradual improvement starting from Q2 2025, with projections of achieving three major BD licensing deals exceeding $5 billion each in 2025 [1][2] Group 1: Q1 2025 Performance - In Q1 2025, the company's revenue decreased by 30% year-on-year, excluding BD income, with the prescription drug segment declining by 37% [1] - Key therapeutic areas experienced declines: CNS down 30% due to medical insurance cost control and a 13% price reduction from negotiations; oncology core products saw a 66% drop in sales due to centralized procurement and channel price adjustments [1] - The company recorded 720 million RMB in licensing fee income, primarily from collaborations with AstraZeneca and BeiGene [1] - Revenue from raw materials increased by 15% year-on-year, driven by demand in the VC market and rising product prices, while functional foods and other business revenues fell by 9% due to declining demand and prices for caffeine [1] - The net profit margin improved by 3.1 percentage points to 21.1% due to high-margin licensing income and cost control efforts [1] Group 2: Future Outlook and BD Transactions - The company anticipates gradual improvement in performance starting Q2 2025, driven by increased promotion of Enbip, stabilization from procurement and inventory adjustments, rapid market entry of new products, and additional BD income recognition [2] - Management expects to achieve three large overseas licensing deals in 2025, each exceeding $5 billion, including a comprehensive technology platform licensing deal [2] - The company is advancing a Phase III study for EGFR ADC in second-line EGFR+ NSCLC in China and has initiated studies for third-line EGFR classic mutation NSCLC overseas, with further discussions with the FDA planned for June [2] - Based on optimistic BD income and operating expense forecasts, the company has raised its revenue projections for 2025-2027 by 1.5-7.5% and net profit forecasts by 8-13% [2] - The DCF target price has been adjusted to 7.2 HKD, corresponding to a 14.7x P/E ratio and 1.1x PEG for 2025, indicating that the current stock price reflects the anticipated pressure on 2025 performance and future BD transactions, with limited upside potential [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant improvement in revenue and profit in Q1 2025, driven by stable core business performance and the recognition of upfront payments from Lp(a) and MAT2A small molecule BD transactions [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue reached 7.015 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decline of 21.9% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11% [1]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.48 billion yuan, down 8.4% year-on-year but up 169% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The improvement in revenue and profit was attributed to the confirmation of upfront payments from BD transactions and a stabilization in core business revenue [2]. Group 2: Business Development and Pipeline - The company is optimistic about the EGFR ADC clinical trials, with five Phase III trials expected to be conducted domestically and internationally this year [2]. - Positive data from AACR regarding lung cancer overall response rate (ORR) and safety profiles were highlighted, indicating strong potential for market entry [2]. - The company is focusing on HER2-targeted therapies and anticipates the launch of GLP-1 products by 2026 [3]. Group 3: Cost Management and Future Outlook - The company has significantly reduced sales expenses, with a sales expense ratio of 24% in Q1 2025 compared to 33% in Q1 2024 [2]. - The company expects a gradual improvement in revenue and profit throughout 2025, with a conservative estimate of approximately 4 billion yuan in core business profit for the year [2]. - The target price for the company's stock is set at 10.12 HKD, based on a 19x PE ratio for 2025 [3].