石药集团(01093)涨超3%，截至发稿，涨2.69%，报9.92港元，成交额3.78亿港元。 消息面上，汇丰研究发布研究报告指出，石药集团股价年初至今累计上涨约9%，在1月30日公布与阿斯 利康的合作前已升14%，目前认为其估值仍然吸引，并憧憬未来在EGFR ADC及研发平台将有更多对外 授权合作机会，计及预付款及上季销售轻微改善的预期，将2025至2027年收入预测上调3%至11%。该 行并将石药集团2025至2027年净利润预测上调7%至18%，认为对外授权收入的增长已能抵销药品集中 带量采购政策所带来的负面影响。 来源：智通财经网 里昂表示，预期石药集团目前已完成的业务拓展(BD)交易，将自今年起转化为经常性收入。该行指 出，石药集团与阿斯利康及Madrigal Pharmaceuticals达成的4项重大BD交易，预计将带来约102亿美元的 近期首付款及研发里程碑付款，从而推动2025至27年盈利大幅提升至63亿、102亿及109亿元人民币。 ...

消息面上，汇丰研究发布研究报告指出，石药集团股价年初至今累计上涨约9%，在1月30日公布与阿斯 利康的合作前已升14%，目前认为其估值仍然吸引，并憧憬未来在EGFR ADC及研发平台将有更多对外 授权合作机会，计及预付款及上季销售轻微改善的预期，将2025至2027年收入预测上调3%至11%。该 行并将石药集团2025至2027年净利润预测上调7%至18%，认为对外授权收入的增长已能抵销药品集中 带量采购政策所带来的负面影响。 石药集团(01093)涨超3%，截至发稿，涨2.69%，报9.92港元，成交额3.78亿港元。 里昂表示，预期石药集团目前已完成的业务拓展(BD)交易，将自今年起转化为经常性收入。该行指 出，石药集团与阿斯利康及Madrigal Pharmaceuticals达成的4项重大BD交易，预计将带来约102亿美元的 近期首付款及研发里程碑付款，从而推动2025至27年盈利大幅提升至63亿、102亿及109亿元人民币。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (01093) has increased by approximately 9% year-to-date, with a notable rise of 14% prior to the announcement of its collaboration with AstraZeneca on January 30. HSBC Research maintains that the company's valuation remains attractive and anticipates more licensing opportunities in the future related to EGFR ADC and its R&D platform [1][1][1] Group 1 - HSBC has raised its revenue forecasts for CSPC Pharmaceutical Group for 2025 to 2027 by 3% to 11%, considering prepayments and slight improvements in last quarter sales [1][1][1] - The net profit forecasts for the same period have been increased by 7% to 18%, indicating that growth in licensing revenue can offset the negative impacts of centralized procurement policies for pharmaceuticals [1][1][1] Group 2 - Citi expects that the business development (BD) transactions already completed by CSPC will start converting into recurring revenue from this year [1][1][1] - The four significant BD transactions with AstraZeneca and Madrigal Pharmaceuticals are projected to generate approximately $10.2 billion in upfront and milestone payments, significantly boosting profits to 6.3 billion, 10.2 billion, and 10.9 billion RMB for 2025 to 2027 [1][1][1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 19.25 [1][4]. Core Insights - The company has announced a significant overseas deal for its long-acting peptide drug metabolism AI discovery platform, involving an upfront payment of USD 1.2 billion, potential R&D milestone payments of up to USD 3.5 billion, and sales milestone payments of up to USD 13.8 billion, along with a double-digit percentage royalty on net sales to AstraZeneca [1][2]. - This transaction is noted as the largest deal in the domestic pharmaceutical sector for the year, comparable to a previous major deal between 3SBio and Pfizer [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from the upfront payment, leading to a projected rapid year-on-year growth in net profit for 2026 [1]. - The long-acting metabolism platform is considered rare globally, with only Camurus having a similar platform, which enhances the company's competitive position in the overseas weight loss market [2]. Summary by Sections Transaction Details - The deal with AstraZeneca includes an upfront payment of USD 1.2 billion, potential R&D milestones of up to USD 3.5 billion, and sales milestones of up to USD 13.8 billion, along with a royalty on net sales [2]. - The platform includes core assets such as GIPR/GLP-1R and three preclinical weight loss pipelines, with plans for collaboration on four additional projects [2]. Platform Mechanism - The company possesses a leading liposome platform, and the fluid crystal technology allows for long-term release of active ingredients, enabling monthly or longer dosing [2]. Pipeline Potential - The company has a robust pipeline including EGFR ADC, which is expected to enter Phase III clinical trials both domestically and internationally, and other oncology and autoimmune therapies [3]. - The ADC pipeline targets HER3, B7H3, DLL3, and aims to address gaps in lung squamous carcinoma treatment [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The projected net profits for the company from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at RMB 4.45 billion, RMB 8.46 billion, and RMB 5.60 billion respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 0.39, RMB 0.73, and RMB 0.49 [4][9]. - The company is assigned a PE ratio of 24 times for 2026, with a target price adjustment reflecting market conditions [4][11].

1月30日，石药集团正式宣布与阿斯利康达成研发合作协议。根据协议，石药集团将获得12亿美元的预 付款，并有权获得最高35亿美元的潜在研发里程碑付款、最高138亿美元的潜在销售里程碑付款，以及 基于相关授权产品年净销售额、最高达双位数比例的销售提成。 石药集团的一则合作，创造了两个意想不到的结果。 其中之一是其BD规模之大，超出市场预期。 12亿美元的首付款，仅次于三生制药与辉瑞的合作。 然而，与之形成鲜明反差的是其惨淡的股价表现——当日股价低开低走，最终跌幅达10.2%。这也让投 资者质疑，BD消息是否提前泄露。 无论此次股价暴跌是否与石药集团的保密工作不到位有关，这一现象都清晰指向一个核心结论：医药行 业单纯炒作BD的时代，已经彻底翻篇了。 "翻车"的石药 石药集团翻车了。 从交易规模来看，这无疑是中国创新药历史上最大的交易之一——石药集团与阿斯利康达成的研发合作 协议，潜在总交易额高达185亿美元。 尽管这笔巨额交易中，包含最高35亿美元的研发里程碑付款和最高138亿美元的销售里程碑付款，这类 款项受研发进度、市场销售等不确定因素影响较大，更像是"画饼"，但12亿美元的首付款却是实打实的 收益。 正是凭借 ...

Group 1: Industry Overview - The Chinese innovative drug industry is experiencing a significant recovery in 2025, with record high external BD totals and an increase in the number of drug approvals [1][2] - Despite the positive trends, there are concerns about the sustainability of the market, high valuations of some companies, and the potential for structural differentiation in the industry [2][3] Group 2: IPO Market - The IPO market for innovative drug companies has seen a resurgence, with many firms successfully listing on the Hong Kong stock exchange and exceeding fundraising expectations [3][4] - However, the market experienced a downturn in December, with initial public offerings facing challenges such as market sentiment cooling and stricter regulatory scrutiny [4] Group 3: Commercial Insurance and Drug Pricing - The introduction of a commercial insurance directory for innovative drugs aims to address the payment challenges associated with high-priced therapies, with 24 drugs participating in price negotiations [4][5] - The negotiated price reductions for these drugs range from 15% to 50%, but the effectiveness of this new payment model in promoting clinical use remains to be seen [5] Group 4: BD Opportunities and Challenges - The trend of significant BD transactions continues, with companies like 3SBio and Innovent Biologics leading the way, prompting speculation about the next major BD opportunities [6][7] - There is a growing concern about the legal risks associated with BD transactions, as the industry may face an increase in litigation related to these deals [8] Group 5: Future Prospects and Uncertainties - Key questions remain regarding the future of companies like Summit, including potential acquisitions and the performance of their clinical trials [9][10] - The domestic vaccine sector is struggling, with significant declines in stock prices and ongoing challenges related to product differentiation and commercialization [11] - Geopolitical factors continue to pose risks to the innovative drug sector, with ongoing uncertainties regarding regulatory policies and market access [12] Group 6: Unexpected Developments - Some biotech companies have made surprising decisions, such as the acquisition of Lixte Biotechnology by China National Pharmaceutical Group, which deviated from expectations of an independent IPO [13][14] - The sudden dissolution of Run Biotech highlights the high-risk nature of the industry and the challenges of balancing short-term financial returns with long-term innovation [15]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong innovative drug sector has experienced a significant rally this year, with the Hong Kong innovative drug index (CSI:931787) rising by 75% until October, but has since entered a cooling phase as investors digest previous gains [3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The innovative drug sector saw 23 companies listed in the Hong Kong healthcare sector this year, compared to only 8 last year [3]. - Despite the initial surge, many companies that have not yet entered the Stock Connect are experiencing a decline in stock prices, indicating a challenging path to inclusion [3][4]. Group 2: Stock Connect Mechanism - The Stock Connect allows mainland investors to trade Hong Kong-listed stocks, with significant contributions from southbound funds, accounting for 40%-50% of trading volume in some companies [3][4]. - Companies not included in the Stock Connect face liquidity challenges, as most mainland public funds cannot invest directly [4][5]. Group 3: Challenges for Inclusion - The threshold for entering the Stock Connect has increased due to rising market valuations, with the market capitalization requirement for inclusion in the Hang Seng Composite Index set at approximately HKD 9.32 billion [6]. - Companies previously included in the Stock Connect but later removed face significant hurdles to re-entry, as liquidity issues persist [7][8]. Group 4: Business Development (BD) Fatigue - The market has shown signs of "BD fatigue," where announcements of potential business developments no longer lead to significant stock price increases, as seen with recent collaborations that resulted in stock declines [9][10]. - Investors are now demanding more substantial evidence of project viability and commitment from partners before reacting positively to BD announcements [10]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The market is currently in a quiet phase, with investors waiting for clear signals of recovery before increasing their positions, reflecting a cautious sentiment as year-end approaches [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 19.89 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of 12.3%, but a growth of 3.4% year-on-year in Q3, with a net profit of 3.51 billion yuan, down 7.1% year-on-year, but a significant increase of 27% year-on-year in Q3 [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Revenue for Q3 2025 was 9.6 billion yuan, with an estimated internal profit of nearly 600 million yuan [1]. - The decline in revenue for the first three quarters was primarily due to the impact of the collection of authorized income in the drug business, which has now narrowed, and the gradual dissipation of the impact from the procurement of Duomeisu [1][2]. - The company expects continued improvement in revenue in Q4 2025, driven by the market expansion of new products such as Omaguzumab and Mingfule [1][2]. Group 2: Drug Business Outlook - The drug business revenue decreased by 17.2% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, but the decline narrowed significantly compared to Q2 [2]. - The company anticipates a return to positive growth in the drug business by 2026, supported by the absence of major products in the 14th batch of centralized procurement and the market expansion of already launched products [2]. - New products such as TG103, HER2 bispecific antibodies, and Bai Zhi II are expected to be approved in 2026, contributing to revenue growth [2]. Group 3: Clinical Development - The company is actively advancing the clinical trials for EGFR ADC both domestically and internationally, with plans for Phase III trials in the near future [3]. - The focus of the clinical trials includes NSCLC classic mutations and wild-type cases, indicating a competitive ADC pipeline with strong data quality and enrollment [3]. Group 4: Business Development and Pipeline - The company confirmed a business development (BD) revenue of 1.54 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, with four transactions completed [4]. - The company has a robust pipeline in oncology, metabolism, autoimmune diseases, and small nucleic acids, which is expected to support BD efforts in 2026 [4]. - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 4.552 billion yuan, 4.628 billion yuan, and 5.029 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS estimates [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Buy" for the company with a target price of HKD 12.75 [7]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 19.89 billion for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-over-year decline of 12.3%, but a growth of 3.4% year-over-year in Q3 [1]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for the first three quarters was RMB 3.51 billion, down 7.1% year-over-year, with Q3 profit showing a significant increase of 27% year-over-year [1]. - The revenue growth in Q3 is attributed to the narrowing decline in the prescription drug business and the gradual dissipation of the impact from centralized procurement [1][2]. - The company is optimistic about the continued market expansion of new products such as Omaguzumab and Mingfule under the backdrop of ongoing market development [1][2]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company reported a revenue of RMB 19.89 billion for 1-3Q25, with Q3 revenue showing a 3.4% year-over-year increase and a 5.7% quarter-over-quarter increase [1]. - The net profit for 1-3Q25 was RMB 3.51 billion, with Q3 profit at RMB 960 million, indicating a strong recovery in profitability [1]. Product Pipeline and Business Development - The report highlights the potential of the EGFR ADC pipeline, with ongoing clinical trials both domestically and internationally, indicating strong competitive advantages [3]. - The company confirmed BD revenue of RMB 1.54 billion in 1-3Q25, with expectations for continued BD opportunities in 2026 [4]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates a return to positive growth in prescription drug revenue by 2026, driven by new product launches and the absence of major products in the latest round of centralized procurement [2]. - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are RMB 4.55 billion, RMB 4.63 billion, and RMB 5.03 billion respectively, with corresponding EPS estimates of RMB 0.40, RMB 0.40, and RMB 0.44 [5][10].

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index opened down 0.07%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.65% [1] - China Metallurgical Group (601618) and China CNR Corporation (601766) both dropped over 3%, while Lepu Biopharma-B surged over 7% following the domestic approval of the world's first FIC drug EGFR ADC [1] - The fourth quarter is expected to see a fluctuating upward trend in Hong Kong stocks, with the "barbell strategy" being the optimal choice to respond to market changes [1] Group 2 - The barbell strategy consists of a technology sector that benefits from the AI revolution and new productivity, focusing on high-growth opportunities, while the high-dividend sectors provide stable cash flow to mitigate market risks [1] - This investment configuration aligns with the current market environment characterized by "policy support + technological breakthroughs" and matches the preferences of foreign institutions for growth leaders and high-dividend stocks [1] - For investors, positioning in Hong Kong tech stocks represents capturing the most imaginative growth opportunities in a fluctuating market, achieving a balance between offense and defense [1] Group 3 - Relevant ETFs for Hong Kong tech include the Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF (159101), which covers the entire technology industry chain, and the Hang Seng Internet ETF (513330), which focuses on internet leaders [2]