Core Viewpoint - The United States and Iran are attempting to resolve tensions through diplomatic negotiations, but significant differences remain in their positions regarding the scope of discussions, particularly on nuclear issues and sanctions [1][4]. Group 1: Diplomatic Efforts - Iranian President Pezeshkian has ordered the initiation of nuclear talks, with high-level negotiations expected to occur soon between U.S. Special Envoy Wittekopf and Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif in Istanbul [1][3]. - The upcoming meeting in Istanbul will include foreign ministers from Turkey, Qatar, Egypt, Oman, UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan, indicating a broad international interest in the negotiations [1][3]. - U.S. Defense Secretary Esper has warned that if Iran refuses to negotiate on its nuclear program, the U.S. is prepared to take action [2][4]. Group 2: Divergent Positions - The core disagreement lies in the negotiation agenda, with the U.S. insisting on a comprehensive agreement that includes Iran's nuclear, missile, and regional proxy issues, while Iran is focused solely on nuclear discussions [4][5]. - Iranian officials emphasize that the lifting of sanctions is a critical demand for their participation in negotiations, asserting that any agreement must be mutually beneficial [2][4]. Group 3: Regional Dynamics - Regional countries, including Jordan and Saudi Arabia, have expressed neutrality and will not support any military actions against Iran, indicating a cautious approach to the escalating tensions [7]. - The U.S. has significantly increased its military presence in the Gulf region, with the Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier strike group positioned to respond quickly if necessary [2][6].

美国政府停摆致1月就业报告推迟发布，市场面临关键数据空窗期。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 1月30日，美国参议院通过拨款法案，将为国防部、教育部、卫生与公众服务部、劳工部、交通部以及 住房与城市发展部在内的多个联邦机构提供资金，但修改后的方案仍需获得众议院批准。美国东部时间 1月31日0时起，美国联邦政府多个部门陷入"技术性停摆"。 众议院共和党籍议长迈克·约翰逊当地时间2月1日表示，共和党人准备"单干"，以推动给多部门拨款的 法案尽快获批。美国联邦政府多部门的"技术性停摆"将至少持续至3日。 风险提示及免责条款 当地时间2月2日， 美国劳工统计局表示，由于联邦政府部分"停摆"，原定于6日发布的美1月就业报告 将不会按时公布。美劳工统计局分管官员艾米丽·利德尔在一份声明中表示： 该报告将在政府资金恢复后重新安排发布时间。 ...

市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 风险提示及免责条款 2月2日，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体平台"真实社交"上发文称，他于当日上午与印度总理莫迪进行了交 谈。 特朗普表示，双方达成了一项美印贸易协议，美国对印度的"对等关税"将从25%降至18%。印度也 将相应地降低对美国的关税和非关税壁垒，直至降至零。特朗普还称，莫迪承诺将大幅增加对美国产品 的采购，包括价值超过5000亿美元的美国能源、技术、农产品、煤炭以及其他许多产品。（央视） ...

特朗普提名凯文·沃什担任下任美联储主席，引发市场对美联储与财政部关系或将调整的关注。 沃什长期批评美联储资产负债表规模过大，主张大幅缩减当前6.6万亿美元的债券持有量，并提出应与 财政部达成类似1951年"美联储-财政部协议"的新契约，以重新界定央行与财政的政策边界。 财长斯科特·贝森特持有相似立场。对冲基金投资者斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒上周向英国《金融时报》表示， 他对二人即将展开的合作感到振奋，称双方若能达成协议"将是理想局面"。德鲁肯米勒曾是贝森特与沃 什的雇主。 然而沃什的主张显然更为彻底。他呼吁推动美联储资产负债表回归2008年金融危机前的规模，实质上要 求央行大幅收缩当前因多年量化宽松而膨胀的资产持有。 缩表面临的现实障碍 据路透社分析，大幅缩减美联储持有的债券规模将面临显著结构性制约。金融现实强烈表明，这一过程 可能缓慢而艰难，甚至难以彻底实现。 然而，分析指出，大幅缩减美联储资产负债表面临多重现实挑战。历史经验表明，美联储此前任何一次 缩表尝试均引发货币市场紧张。2013年，仅暗示将逐步减少购债规模便引发了全球市场剧烈波动的"缩 减恐慌"。此外，激进缩表还可能直接推高长期利率，而贝森特此前明确将此视 ...

印度政府近日宣布，将为使用本土数据中心服务全球客户的超大规模云服务商提供长达20年的税收豁 免，旨在将人工智能（AI）驱动的关键业务引入印度。 此项税收优惠预计将使印度数据中心在吸引国际投资方面，比新加坡、阿联酋和爱尔兰等传统枢纽更具 竞争力。根据现行规则，外国云服务巨头在印数据中心的利润被视作常设机构所得，需缴纳35%的企业 所得税及附加费。新政策将使相关企业在2047年前实现利润完全免税。 印度财政部长西塔拉曼在预算演讲中明确表示，此项豁免将"促进对数据中心的投资"。政策宣布前，产 业已有先兆：微软与亚马逊在去年12月于24小时内相继承诺对印度云与AI基础设施投资超500亿美元， 谷歌亦与AdaniConneX合作，在印度南部启动价值150亿美元的数据中心项目。 分析指出，此举是印度寻求在全球AI竞争中占据更关键地位的战略举措。尽管该国目前在基础模型、 先进芯片制造及大规模数据中心容量方面存在短板，但专家认为，此项定向激励政策有望复制本世纪初 印度IT服务外包行业的成功，为该国云与数据中心生态带来结构性变革。 税收豁免扫清最大投资障碍 行业专家普遍认为，印度为超大规模云服务商提供的20年税收豁免，将显著提 ...

Core Viewpoint - Disney reported a 5% year-over-year revenue growth for Q1 FY2026, reaching $25.98 billion, but net income decreased by 6% to $2.40 billion, primarily due to rising entertainment content costs, increased sports rights fees, and one-time tax adjustments [1][2]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - The "Experience" segment, which includes theme parks, resorts, and cruise lines, remains the core profit engine, with revenue increasing by 6% to $10.01 billion and operating profit also rising by 6% to $3.31 billion, accounting for over 70% of the company's overall segment operating profit [3][7]. - The "Entertainment" segment saw a significant operating profit decline of 35% to $1.10 billion, while the "Sports" segment's operating profit decreased by 23% to $191 million, negatively impacting overall profitability [3][6]. Cost and Expense Overview - Content production and costs increased by 15% to $6.31 billion, driven by costs related to theatrical releases and streaming content [5]. - Selling, general, and administrative expenses rose by 14% to $2.63 billion, primarily due to increased marketing expenditures for theatrical and streaming businesses [5]. Cash Flow and Capital Expenditure - Operating cash flow dropped significantly to $735 million from $3.21 billion year-over-year, attributed to concentrated tax payments and increased content spending [9]. - Capital expenditures for the quarter were $3.01 billion, up from $2.47 billion the previous year, with expectations for FY2026 capital expenditures to rise to approximately $9 billion [9]. Shareholder Returns and Debt Management - The company repurchased 18.46 million shares for a total of $2.03 billion and announced a dividend of $0.75 per share, up from $0.50 the previous fiscal year, with total declared dividends for the quarter amounting to approximately $2.65 billion [10]. - Total debt at the end of the period was $46.64 billion, with $10.82 billion classified as current liabilities, indicating a notable increase [10]. Strategic Transactions and Integrations - The Fubo transaction, completed on October 29, 2025, contributed approximately $300 million in revenue but also resulted in a $307 million non-cash tax expense, significantly impacting earnings per share [11]. - ESPN's recent asset transaction with the NFL is expected to alter its equity structure and strengthen the company's position in sports content distribution [11].

风险提示及免责条款 美国1月ISM制造业指数 52.6，预期 48.5，前值 47.9。 美国1月ISM制造业就业指数 48.1，预期 46，前 值 44.9。 美国1月ISM制造业新订单指数 57.1，前值 47.7。 美国1月ISM制造业物价支付指数 59，预期 59.3，前值 58.5。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 ...

据彭博报道，甲骨文已于周一正式开启美元债券发行，预计发债规模在200亿至250亿美元之间。受融资路径进一步清晰的提振，甲骨文股价在美 股盘前交易中一度涨超3%，市场对该公司解决资本支出资金来源的担忧暂时得到缓解。 根据声明，甲骨文计划通过单次债券发行筹集本年度所需的一半资金，并承诺年内不再发行额外票据，剩余资金缺口将通过股权相关工具及普通 股发行填补。评级机构惠誉已确认甲骨文的长期发行人违约评级为BBB。 然而，这一举动也将其资产负债表置于聚光灯下。作为除金融板块外最大的企业债券发行人之一，甲骨文目前的未偿债务已高达约950亿美元。在 利率高企的背景下，如此大规模的举债扩张引发了华尔街对公司现金流压力及财务结构脆弱性的审视。 八部分发债锁定长期资金 据知情人士向彭博透露，此次债券发行将分为八个部分，期限从3年到40年不等。其中，期限最长的40年期债券的初步价格指引显示，其收益率将 较美国国债高出约2.25个百分点。 此次发行由美国银行、花旗集团、德意志银行、高盛集团、汇丰控股、摩根大通等华尔街大行负责管理。 为了抢占人工智能算力的高地，软件巨头甲骨文正式启动了规模宏大的融资计划，拟通过债券和股权组合筹集最高达 ...

美银证券预计Alphabet四季度营收与每股收益将双超市场预期，并指出其资本开支上调幅度可能成为本次财报的关键变量。谷歌母公司Alphabet美 东时间2月4日盘后披露2025财年第四季度业绩。 美银分析师将四季度营收预测上调至959亿美元（市场预期952亿美元），每股收益预期调至2.65美元（市场预期2.64美元）。支撑业绩超预期的核 心因素包括：Meta强劲财报显示四季度广告市场保持稳定，而Gemini 3发布后使用量加速有望推动搜索业务增长至15%-16%（高于市场预期的 13%），YouTube增速亦可能达14%-15%（市场预期13%）。四季度运营费用预计为280亿美元，同比增长13%，运营利润率或同比提升119个基 点。 受Meta大幅上调资本开支指引的影响，美银将Alphabet 2026年资本开支预期上调14%至1390亿美元，显著高于市场预期的1190亿美元。 四季度业绩预期上调，广告业务有望超预期 美银证券上调了Alphabet第四季度营收预期。其中，搜索业务营收预期从615亿美元上调至619亿美元，同比增长15%，增速与三季度持平； YouTube广告营收预期从118亿美元上调至120亿 ...

Core Insights - 2026 is projected to be a pivotal year where AI inference workloads may surpass training workloads, with inference expected to account for the majority of AI capital expenditures by 2030, potentially reaching 75% of the estimated $1.2 trillion [1][4]. Group 1: AI Capital Expenditure and Market Performance - Despite concerns regarding funding, valuations, and interest rate fluctuations, the continuous growth in AI capital expenditures is driving strong performance in the semiconductor sector [1]. - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) has risen approximately 13% year-to-date, marking the second-best January performance in the past 20 years, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 1% increase [1]. - The recent surge in semiconductor stocks is primarily led by storage chip manufacturers, semiconductor equipment suppliers, and analog chip producers, rather than major players like NVIDIA and Broadcom [1]. Group 2: Differentiated Opportunities for Chip Suppliers - The shift towards inference workloads will create differentiated opportunities for various types of chip suppliers, including GPUs, CPUs, and ASICs, while also impacting storage and semiconductor equipment suppliers [3]. - NVIDIA maintains a leading position with a comprehensive product lineup across both training and inference domains, supported by supply assurance advantages [5]. - AMD is viewed as a reliable second supplier of general-purpose chips, with recent stock price fluctuations attributed to market concerns over TSMC's 2nm process, which is still on track according to analysts [5]. Group 3: Optical Connectivity and Market Dynamics - Demand for optical connectivity is real, but recent price increases may be excessive; optical transceiver and component suppliers are among the strongest performers after storage chips [6]. - The necessity for optical connections is underscored by the expanding scale and bandwidth requirements of AI clusters, with NVIDIA's upcoming photonic switch expected to act as a potential catalyst [6]. - However, evidence of interest in co-packaged optics (CPO) from major cloud service providers is limited, primarily due to operational complexities and control over the bill of materials shifting to NVIDIA and Broadcom [6].