风险提示及免责条款 据智通财经消息，据接近宁德时代人士处获悉，宜春时代新能源矿业有限公司的宜丰县圳口里-奉新县 枧下窝锂矿采矿项目，预计于春节前后复产。今年8月，宁德时代在投资者互动平台透露，宜春枧下窝 锂矿项目在采矿许可证8月9日到期后暂停了开采作业。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 ...

市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 风险提示及免责条款 英特尔美股盘前跌近1%，据报道，英伟达已暂停对英特尔18A制造工艺的测试。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The silver price surge has led to a liquidity chaos and speculative frenzy across markets, with the Guotou Silver LOF fund experiencing significant price increases and premium rates exceeding 68% [1][6]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Guotou Silver LOF fund saw its price hit the daily limit on December 24, with a trading volume exceeding 6% and a premium rate reaching a historical high of 68.16% [2]. - The extreme market enthusiasm has resulted in irrational price movements, including a "fat finger" incident where a similarly named fund, Guotou Ruiying LOF, was mistakenly driven to a price limit due to fund misallocation [4][8]. - The fund management has issued 13 risk alerts since December 2 and raised the subscription limit to 500 yuan to stabilize the premium, warning that the high premium is unsustainable [6][15]. Group 2: Investor Behavior - The high premium has led to a surge in social media discussions about "arbitrage," with investors attempting to buy at net asset value and sell at inflated market prices, theoretically earning up to a 30% profit margin [9]. - The fund's circulating shares increased by nearly 25% in three months, with over 10 million new shares added on a single day [9]. - However, actual arbitrage execution is complicated, involving cross-system transfers and a T+2 settlement period, which can compress profit margins or lead to losses if silver prices decline during this time [13]. Group 3: Valuation Challenges - The fund's unique valuation mechanism, which relies on the settlement price of silver futures, has exacerbated tracking errors, leading to a significant divergence between the fund's performance and the underlying silver index [15]. - Over the past year, the main silver futures contract's return doubled, while the fund's return was only 88.57%, indicating a lack of fundamental support for the soaring market prices [15]. - Experts suggest that the current situation reflects a classic price distortion driven by supply-demand imbalances, with funds aggressively pursuing limited opportunities, creating a "scarcity bubble" [15].

Core Viewpoint - Sanofi has agreed to acquire US vaccine company Dynavax for approximately $2.2 billion to expand its vaccine business, which is currently focused on flu vaccines. This acquisition comes alongside an unexpected FDA rejection of Sanofi's experimental drug for multiple sclerosis, tolebrutinib [1][4]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - Sanofi will purchase Dynavax for $15.50 per share in cash, enhancing its position in the adult immunization market with Dynavax's existing hepatitis B vaccine and an experimental shingles vaccine currently in early human trials [1][3]. - The shingles vaccine has demonstrated commercial potential, as evidenced by competitor GlaxoSmithKline's significant revenue increase from a similar product. Additionally, research suggests a possible link between the vaccine and reduced dementia incidence [3]. Group 2: Market Challenges - The global vaccine market is facing challenges, including a decline in flu vaccine sales, increased price competition in Europe, and a decrease in vaccination rates in the US. The Secretary of Health and Human Services has been disrupting long-standing vaccine guidelines, particularly for childhood vaccines [4]. - Sanofi's CFO noted a general decline in global vaccination rates, attributing it to post-COVID vaccine fatigue and negative sentiments towards vaccines [4]. Group 3: Impact of FDA Rejection - The FDA's rejection of tolebrutinib represents a significant setback for Sanofi, with previous forecasts estimating peak annual sales of the drug at $17 billion. The development process has been challenging, with prior trials indicating potential liver damage risks [4][6]. - Analysts have expressed concerns regarding management's judgment and credibility due to the substantial investment in tolebrutinib's development. The likelihood of the drug receiving FDA approval has now significantly decreased [5][6].

10 作者 | 王小娟 编辑 | 黄昱 全球AI竞赛已进入白热化阶段，字节通过一场"史无前例"的薪酬改革，将AI竞争推向新的高度。 近日，字节向全球员工发布内部邮件，宣布启动近年来最大规模的薪酬体系变革：奖金投入提升35%，调薪投入增加1.5倍，并首次提出要确保薪酬竞争力 在全球各个市场"领先于头部水平"。 显然在这新一轮技术革命中，字节的野心不止于国内，而是意在全球。回顾过往，字节总是在寻求增长的阶段"不计代价"招揽人才。 从创业初期的创始人张一鸣的亲自面试，到移动互联网时代以"pay top of the market"横扫人才市场，再到AI时代重启高烈度激励，字节的人才战略始终是其 业务冲锋的号角。 当然，字节跳动此次的薪酬改革，不仅是一场人才争夺战，更是对中国互联网行业未来走向的一次重要预演。随着马云、张一鸣、刘强东等互联网大佬纷纷 重返一线，AI人才争夺战才刚刚开始。谁能在这场竞争中占据先机，谁就有可能定义互联网的下一个十年。 01 字节加码AI竞争 一年前，外界对于字节AI的描述还是"掉队"，字节自己也感受着这种差异。 2025年初，字节CEO梁汝波在全员会上对公司的AI业务进行了深度反思。 他坦 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs' stock strategy team indicates that global equity markets are in a typical "optimism phase," with the bull market expected to broaden by 2026, despite lower expected returns compared to 2025 [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance and Predictions - The weighted price return for global equity markets is projected to be 13% in 2026, with a total return of 15% including dividends, building on a strong performance in 2025 [1]. - The market has shown significant recovery since April, with major U.S. indices rebounding nearly 45% from their lows [1][6]. - The current bull market is shifting from valuation-driven to earnings-driven, with geographic diversification becoming evident as most major stock markets are expected to outperform U.S. equities in 2025 [4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Risks - The market is currently characterized by record concentration at national, industry, and individual stock levels, making diversification particularly urgent for 2026 [4][8]. - Historical patterns suggest that the final year of a market cycle often sees significant price surges, raising the risk of a bubble, especially if speculative behavior is driven by AI narratives [5]. - The report highlights that the recovery path has been tumultuous, with significant downturns earlier in the year due to tariff concerns and the "DeepSeek" effect on the tech sector [5][6]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Goldman Sachs emphasizes the necessity of diversification across regions, styles, and sectors to optimize risk-adjusted returns [8][11]. - Suggested strategies include focusing on emerging markets, combining growth and value stocks, and leveraging capital expenditures in traditional sectors benefiting from AI developments [11].

"完美的"资产负债表游戏 硅谷巨头历来以现金流充裕、债务极低著称，这赋予了它们极佳的信用评级和投资者的信任。然而，争 夺先进AI算力的竞赛迫使这些科技集团背负了前所未有的借贷压力。为了不在资产负债表上展现过高 的杠杆率，从而保护信用评级并美化财务指标，通过表外结构引入私募资本成为首选。 据报道，一位大型融资机构的高级主管表示，由于拥有优良的信用状况，科技行业能够比其他任何行业 获得更多的资本。这种结构的基本逻辑是：科技公司不直接借款，而是通过SPV筹资建设数据中心，随 后再与其签署租赁协议。在违约情况下，贷款人的追索权通常仅限于SPV名下的资产——数据中心、土 地及芯片，而非管理这些站点的科技母公司。 巨头们的具体操盘路径 为了在这场昂贵的人工智能（AI）军备竞赛中保持领先，同时维持完美的财务报表，硅谷科技巨头正 通过复杂的金融工具，将巨额基础设施支出转移至资产负债表之外。 据英国《金融时报》24日分析，包括Meta、xAI、甲骨文以及数据中心运营商CoreWeave在内的科技公 司，已利用特殊目的载体（SPV）将超过1200亿美元的数据中心融资债务转移给华尔街投资者。这一策 略在保护科技巨头信贷评级的同时， ...

12月24日，现货白银强势上攻，不仅一举突破每盎司70美元的关键心理关口，更最高触及72美元/盎司，其涨势迅速成为市场焦点。这一走势，印 证并延续了此前数日市场对白银日益高涨的看涨预期。 就在12月19日，Clocktower首席策略师王凯文在"Alpha峰会"上明确将白银列为当前"最高确信度交易"，并做出大胆预测：全球央行未来将不得不 介入白银市场，将其纳入储备资产。 王凯文指出，尽管黄金价格屡创新高，但在剔除通胀因素后的实际价格对比中，白银目前的估值极具吸引力。他分析称，实际黄金价格已远超 1979年的峰值，而实际白银价格才刚刚突破长期的下行通道。与此同时，金银比近期也突破了长达15年的上行通道，这一技术面信号表明，在当 前的贵金属牛市中，白银的表现大概率将优于黄金。 针对市场关于"央行不储备白银"的传统观点，王凯文提出了颠覆性的反驳。他认为，随着西方发达国家债券市场面临前所未有的动荡，全球数百 万亿美元的存量财富迫切需要寻找新的承载体。在黄金交易拥挤、铂金与钯金市场容量过小的现实下，白银成为唯一能够承接巨额资本流出的实 物资产。这并非央行的主观意愿，而是在法定货币信用体系动摇时的"必然选择"。 此外，王 ...

为加快西部陆海新通道建设的重大决策部署，完善西部陆海新通道金融服务体系，近日，中国人民银 行、国家发展改革委、财政部、交通运输部、商务部、金融监管总局、中国证监会、国家外汇局联合印 发《关于金融支持加快西部陆海新通道建设的意见》（以下简称《意见》）。 《意见》从完善金融组织协作体系，构建高质量资金融通体系，推进制度性改革创新，建设数字金融服 务平台，完善金融开放合作体系，深化跨省跨境金融监管协作等方面提出21条重点举措，推动发挥 好"融资"和"结算"两项金融核心功能，支持西部陆海新通道高质量发展。 《意见》提出，在有条件地区开展高低版本的跨国公司本外币一体化资金池业务试点。简化资本项目外 汇登记手续，在有条件地区允许符合条件的非金融企业外债业务外汇登记直接在银行办理，支持外商投 资企业境内再投资免于登记。 加强与东南亚、中亚地区国家的双边货币合作，为人民币跨境使用创造支持条件。深入推进更高水平贸 易投资人民币结算便利化试点，支持外经贸企业更多使用人民币进行结算。支持东盟国家投资者以人民 币投资、境内再投资。鼓励大宗商品交易人民币计价结算。支持银行业金融机构跨境调运人民币现钞。 支持银行开展跨境融资、跨境担保、 ...

风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 12月24日，北京市住房城乡建设委、市发展改革委、人民银行北京市分行、北京住房公积金管理中心等 4部门联合印发《关于进一步优化调整本市房地产相关政策的通知》（以下简称《通知》），自2025年 12月24日起施行。《通知》明确，为更好满足居民刚性住房需求和多样化改善性住房需求，进一步优化 调整住房限购政策。一是放宽非京籍家庭购房条件。将非京籍家庭购买五环内商品住房的社保或个税缴 纳年限，由现行的"3年"调减为"2年";购买五环外商品住房的，由现行的"2年"调减为"1年"。二是支持多 子女家庭住房需求。二孩及以上的多子女家庭，可在五环内多购买一套商品住房，即：京籍多子女家 庭，可在五环内购买3套商品住房；在京连续2年缴纳社保或个税的非京籍多子女家庭，可在五环内购买 2套商品住房。《通知》明确，进一步优化个人住房信贷政策，银行业金融机构根据北京地区市场利率 定价自律机制要求和本机构经营状况、客户风险状况等因素，在利率定 ...