文/刘佳 1月15日，在国新办新闻发布会上，中国人民银行新闻发言人、副行长邹澜表示，关于降准降息，从今 年看还有一定的空间。 四是做好预期引导，持续健全可置信、常态化、制度化的政策沟通机制，多元化多渠道做好政策解读与 信息公布，不断提升货币政策的透明度。 编辑：冯樱子 谈及2026年人民银行在落实中央经济工作会议的决策部署上，邹澜表示，继续实施适度宽松的货币政 策，发挥存量政策和增量政策的集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，为经济稳定增长和高质量发 展创造适宜的货币金融环境。具体来讲： 一是根据国内外经济金融形势和金融市场运行情况，把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策 的重要考量，灵活高效运用包括降准降息在内的多种政策工具，保持流动性充裕，保持社会融资条件相 对宽松，引导金融总量合理增长、信贷均衡投放，使社会融资规模、货币供应量增长同经济增长和价格 总水平预期目标相匹配。 二是发挥好货币政策总量和结构双重功能，加快落地近期推出的一系列结构性货币政策工具，引导金融 机构加力支持扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域，扎实做好金融"五篇大文章"。同时，加强 与财政政策协同发力，放大政策激励效能。 三是 ...

Core Viewpoint - Ping An Fund predicts a "slow bull" market for A-shares in 2026, driven by profit recovery taking over from valuation repair, with technology and cyclical sectors as the main investment themes [2][4]. Investment Themes - The technology sector, particularly the domestic computing power industry, is expected to enter a capital expenditure acceleration phase, marking 2026 as a "year of capital expenditure" [2][6]. - The cyclical sector is anticipated to evolve into a "blooming" market, supported by global monetary easing and domestic supply-side optimization policies [3][4]. Economic Projections - Assuming a GDP growth target of 5% for 2026 and a PPI recovery to approximately -0.4%, industrial revenue and profit growth are projected to rise to 5.6% and 8.4%, respectively [2][4]. Market Dynamics - The market's momentum is shifting from valuation repair to profit-driven growth, with structural opportunities becoming more pronounced [4][5]. - The liquidity environment remains favorable, with increased retail participation and stable long-term capital inflows from institutional investors [5]. AI and Technology Investment - The AI sector is identified as a core investment theme, with significant potential for capital expenditure growth, potentially reaching $3 trillion by 2030 [6][7]. - The shift in AI models towards a "computing power, storage, and interconnection" system is expected to create new investment opportunities in the storage industry [7]. Cyclical Sector Insights - The cyclical sector is expected to see diverse growth, with metals like gold and copper showing strong potential due to supply constraints and changing demand dynamics [8][9]. - The chemical industry is highlighted as a promising area due to declining capital expenditure and improving supply-demand dynamics [9]. Financial Services Outlook - The insurance sector is favored due to reduced liability costs and improved investment returns, while brokerage firms are expected to benefit from valuation recovery and increased leverage [10].

近日，财政部、税务总局发布了一项新政策，自2026年4月1日起，取消光伏等产品增值税出口退税。这 意味着，我国光伏行业自2013年首次获得这项出口支持政策以来，将正式告别出口退税红利。 不过，为了给企业留出适应时间，政策对电池类产品设置了"缓冲期"。2026年4月1日到2026年12月31日 期间，将电池产品的增值税出口退税率由9%下调至6%;2027年1月1日起，取消电池产品增值税出口退 税。 SMM光伏分析师陈家辉告诉《华夏时报》记者，本次取消出口退税事件的影响将不亚于去年"531"事 件。2026年1至3月，电池组件出口量或将呈翻倍增长，光伏企业将利用这段窗口期合法取得退税。 市场出现抢货 值得关注的是，此次出口退税取消，具体包括四个商品名称：一是直径在15.24厘米以上，厚度在220微 米以上的经掺杂用于电子工业的单晶硅切片;二是直径在15.24厘米以上，厚度在220微米及以下的经掺 杂用于电子工业的单晶硅切片;三是未装在组件内或组装成块的光电池;四是已装在组件内或组装成块的 光电池，波及硅片、电池片、组件等产品。 另外，如果这些产品涉及征收消费税，出口消费税政策不作调整，继续适用消费税退(免)税政策 ...

Core Concept - The book "The Idea Flow" provides a reliable mechanism for generating innovative ideas, aiming to unleash creativity and achieve significant results in various contexts, whether for individuals, teams, or organizations [2][3]. Group 1: Innovation Skills - Innovation is not an innate talent but a skill that can be learned and mastered by anyone with the right knowledge, time, and effort [3][7]. - The emergence of innovative organizations, such as Nike and Apple, is a result of deliberate construction by leaders who understand the importance of fostering an environment conducive to innovation [4][12]. Group 2: Leadership and Innovation - Leaders who do not understand the mechanisms of innovation often struggle to cultivate it within their teams, as they may focus too much on feasibility and relevance, hindering creative thinking [5][6]. - Many CEOs recognize the importance of innovation but fail to model it or create the necessary conditions for it to thrive, often due to traditional management training emphasizing efficiency over creativity [6][19]. Group 3: Problem-Solving and Innovation - True innovation is about solving problems creatively, and every problem essentially boils down to an idea issue, which can be addressed through innovative thinking [8][10]. - The authors emphasize that the quantity of ideas generated leads to better quality outcomes, suggesting that a stable and reliable method is more effective than relying on inspiration alone [9][10]. Group 4: Practical Application and Learning - The authors have developed a system for innovation that has been adopted by top organizations globally, enabling effective problem-solving while minimizing risks and maximizing success probabilities [8][12]. - The book outlines a two-part structure: the first part focuses on building mechanisms for idea generation, while the second part provides key techniques to enhance innovative outcomes [17][18]. Group 5: Real-World Experience - The authors have extensive experience teaching innovation at Stanford University and have worked with various organizations, providing insights into effective innovation practices [11][13]. - The Launchpad incubator project has successfully raised over $1.1 billion in venture capital, demonstrating the practical value of the authors' innovation methodologies [13]. Group 6: Call to Action - Organizations are encouraged to embrace innovation actively, as the pace of technological advancement necessitates rapid adaptation and development [12][20]. - The book advocates for leaders to take initiative and model innovative behaviors, as this will inspire others to engage in the innovation process [19][20].

1月15日，中国人民银行新闻发言人、副行长邹澜在国新办新闻发布会上表示，根据当前经济金融形势 需要，人民银行将先行推出两方面政策措施，一方面是下调各类结构性货币政策工具利率，提高银行重 点领域信贷投放的积极性。另一方面是完善结构性工具，并加大支持力度，进一步助力经济结构转型优 化。 文/李凯旋 《华夏时报》记者了解到，1月14日，财政部、税务总局、住房城乡建设部联合发布《关于延续实施支 持居民换购住房有关个人所得税政策的公告》。《公告》明确自2026年1月1日至2027年12月31日，对出 售自有住房并在现住房出售后1年内在市场重新购买住房的纳税人，对其出售现住房已缴纳的个人所得 税予以退税优惠。 编辑：张蓓 其中，邹澜表示，会同金融监管总局将商业用房购房贷款最低首付比例下调至30%，支持推动商办、房 地产市场去库存。除此之外，邹澜表示，下调各类结构性货币政策工具利率0.25个百分点。各类再贷款 一年期利率从目前的1.5%下调到1.25%，其他期限档次利率同步调整。 ...

二拍 正在进行 预计明日10:00:00结束 (二拍) 常熟市通达路1号不动产及厂区内设备设 施、零配件等财产(详见附件评估报告) ITH A THE SE 图集1/8 当前价 ¥859,600,000 1人报名 924人关注 29778人围观 ( 京东资产交易 2 司法拍卖 ⑦配资服务 竞拍身份:普通竞买人 1 阅读公告 2 交保报名 3 出价竞拍 4 竞价成功 5 支付款项 > 保证金 ¥ 171,920,000 查看如何支付? 起拍价 ¥ 859,600,000 加价幅度 ¥ 1,000,000 本报（chinatimes.net.cn）记者陶炜 南京报道 15日上午10时，江苏省常熟市人民法院对观致汽车常熟工厂核心资产进行的第二次司法拍卖如期开拍。 尽管宝能集团董事长姚振华前一日通过实名举报视频呼吁叫停拍卖，但截至发稿，拍卖程序仍在推进， 仅1名竞买人报名，超2万人围观。 根据常熟市人民法院在法拍公告中展示的执行裁定书，本次拍卖源于苏州资产管理公司申请执行观致汽 车有限公司、深圳宝能投资集团有限公司金融借款合同纠纷一案，是对苏州中院（2021）苏05民初2487 号民事判决书的执行。而姚振华在举报视频 ...

1月12日，《华夏时报》记者向国都证券发送采访函，截至发稿记者未收到回复。1月14日，记者拨打客 服电话，相关客服人员表示，将会记录并转达，此后记者未收到回应。 本报（chinatimes.net.cn）记者张玫 北京报道 国都证券旗下三位基金经理接过两只总规模仅2300万的"濒危"产品，离任者以"临近退休年龄"的理由悄 然退场。 国都证券日前在公告中写道："因临近退休年龄，廖晓东已于1月4日清仓全部在管产品，且不再转任公 司其他岗位。" 这位在公司供职近22年，曾身兼基金管理部副总经理、公募投资决策委员会主席等职的金融老将，以这 一理由，完成了他在国都证券的最后一次谢幕。 老将谢幕 公告显示，廖晓东于2026年1月4日同时离任国都创新驱动（002020）与国都聚成混合（011389）两只产 品的基金经理职务。 廖晓东的卸任公告中，"临近退休年龄"的理由引人关注。一般达到法定退休年龄，基金公司会直接公 告"已到龄退休"，而"临近退休年龄"卸任在公募行业比较少见。 2025年12月25日，廖晓东因"临近退休年龄"，不再担任国都证券基金管理部副总经理（主持工作）职 务。公司于同日发布基金高级管理人员变更公告，任命 ...

Market Overview - In 2025, most assets performed positively, with global stock indices, industrial and precious metals, and US Treasuries entering a bull market, despite some pressures from trade disputes in April [1][2] - The weak performance of the US dollar, domestic bonds, energy, and agricultural products was noted, with domestic bonds underperforming expectations due to various factors including economic data volatility [2] Economic Factors - The bull market was supported by several fundamental factors: the decline of the "American exceptionalism" narrative, ongoing de-dollarization, a soft landing for the global economy, and continued investment in technology sectors like AI [2] - The interplay of these factors suggests that without strong capital expenditure in technology and TACO transactions, achieving a soft landing would be challenging [2] 2026 Market Outlook - For 2026, a moderate economic slowdown is expected, with developed economies like the US and Europe maintaining stable growth [3] - AI-related investments in the US are anticipated to continue supporting economic growth, potentially mitigating recession risks [3] - Fiscal policies in major economies are expected to be expansionary, providing additional support to economic growth [3] Asset Allocation - US Treasury yields are expected to have limited room for decline in 2026, with a neutral scenario predicting a slight decrease in yields [7] - The outlook for US equities remains cautiously optimistic, with a strategy of buying on dips being recommended due to ongoing AI developments and supportive monetary policies [7] - Gold is viewed positively due to long-term trends like de-dollarization and central bank purchases, despite recent price fluctuations [8] - Industrial metals like copper are also favored due to limited supply and demand from new economic sectors [8] Domestic Market Insights - In China, inflation trends will be crucial for the performance of stocks and bonds in 2026, with expectations of gradual recovery in corporate earnings and return on equity (ROE) [6] - The A-share market is expected to see a bullish trend, driven by improving corporate fundamentals and increasing demand for equity investments from residents [6][12] - Key sectors to watch include midstream manufacturing benefiting from PPI improvements and stable growth companies with potential for valuation recovery [22][24] Bond Market Outlook - The bond market is expected to face challenges in becoming a bull market, with limited upside potential for yields [9] - The overall economic environment suggests that while nominal growth may improve, the risks to the bond market remain skewed to the downside [9][36] - The strategy for bond investments should focus on maintaining liquidity and considering short-duration assets to navigate potential volatility [36]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese yuan is expected to appreciate against the US dollar in 2026, with predictions suggesting it could reach 6.8 or even 6.6 due to anticipated US interest rate cuts and a decline in the dollar's global reserve share [2][11][12]. Group 1: Predictions on Yuan and Dollar Exchange Rates - Economists predict the yuan will reach 6.8 this year, with some suggesting it could go as low as 6.6, driven by expectations of three US interest rate cuts [2][11]. - The dollar's share in global reserves is projected to decrease from approximately 58% to 40% over the next decade, supporting the yuan's appreciation [3][12]. - Predictions vary, with some economists suggesting a more conservative outlook, indicating that while the yuan may appreciate in the short term, it could revert to around 7 by year-end due to seasonal factors and fundamental economic conditions [4][13]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Currency Movements - The recent appreciation of the yuan is attributed to seasonal factors, such as exporters converting currencies before the Chinese New Year, and a general trend of dollar depreciation [3][13]. - The offshore yuan has been trading below the onshore rate for several weeks, indicating foreign investors' expectations of yuan appreciation [14]. - High inflation in the US is showing signs of a rapid decline, similar to historical patterns, which may influence the Federal Reserve's decisions on interest rates [12]. Group 3: Impact on Dollar Deposits and Investment Strategies - If the yuan appreciates by 3%, dollar deposits may face risks of diminished interest returns due to currency fluctuations [16]. - Exporters have begun converting significant amounts of dollar deposits into yuan, with expectations of over $200 billion in conversions by early 2026 [17][18]. - Investors are advised to reconsider their strategies, focusing on managing currency risk rather than solely pursuing interest rate differentials, especially in light of potential yuan appreciation [19][20].

Core Viewpoint - The logistics industry is facing challenges such as slowing revenue growth and intensified competition, prompting companies like SF Express and Jitu Express to seek strategic changes to adapt to potential crises and shifts in the market [2]. Group 1: Strategic Partnership - SF Express and Jitu Express announced a strategic mutual shareholding agreement, involving a total investment of HKD 8.3 billion [2]. - Jitu Express will issue 822 million Class B shares to SF Express at HKD 10.10 per share, while SF Express will issue 226 million H shares to Jitu Express at HKD 36.74 per share [2]. - Post-transaction, SF Express will hold 10% of Jitu Express, and Jitu Express will hold 4.29% of SF Express [2]. Group 2: Complementary Strengths - The partnership aims to leverage both companies' strengths to build a more efficient and resilient global integrated logistics network, enhancing service for Chinese enterprises and the global e-commerce landscape [3]. - SF Express will utilize its core resources in cross-border logistics, while Jitu Express will contribute its localized operations across 13 countries, enhancing end-to-end logistics solutions [3]. - Both companies have significant complementary synergies in domestic operations, which will help expand their service boundaries [3]. Group 3: Historical Context - This is not the first collaboration between the two companies; in 2023, Jitu Express acquired SF Express's economy express business for CNY 1.183 billion, which improved Jitu's last-mile delivery capabilities and increased daily order volume to 50 million [3]. - The previous acquisition laid the groundwork for Jitu Express's successful entry into the capital market [3]. - SF Express has optimized its resources to focus on high-end express and comprehensive logistics business restructuring [4].