Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Commerce of China has announced the final ruling on the anti-dumping investigation against imported pork and pig by-products from the European Union, confirming the existence of dumping and substantial damage to the domestic industry, leading to the imposition of anti-dumping duties starting December 17, 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Investigation and Findings - The investigation was initiated on June 17, 2024, in response to requests from the China Animal Husbandry Association, due to significant operational difficulties faced by the domestic industry [1]. - The final ruling confirmed that imported pork and pig by-products from the EU were found to be dumped, causing substantial harm to the domestic industry, with a causal relationship established between dumping and the damage [2]. Group 2: Anti-Dumping Duties - The anti-dumping duties will range from 4.9% to 19.8% for EU companies, effective from December 17, 2025, for a period of five years [1][3]. - Importers will be required to pay the anti-dumping duties based on the customs-determined taxable price of the imported goods [9]. Group 3: Product Scope and Description - The products under investigation include various forms of pork and pig by-products, such as fresh, chilled, frozen pork, and edible offal, among others [6][7]. - The specific product categories are classified under multiple tariff codes in the Chinese import-export tariff system [7]. Group 4: Review and Appeals - New exporters from the EU who were not involved during the investigation period may apply for a review under the anti-dumping regulations [10]. - Stakeholders can request a review of the anti-dumping duties during the enforcement period, and there are provisions for administrative review and litigation against the final ruling [10].

Group 1: Market Trends and Price Movements - The price spread between M2601-M2605 and M2603-M2605 has significantly widened, with M3-M5 rising above 330 CNY/ton, while M1-M5 is consolidating around 250 CNY/ton [1] - The Brazilian basis remains strong, particularly for the near months, while domestic sentiment is supported by extended customs clearance times for soybeans and relatively high auction prices [1] - The recent auction of imported soybeans on December 16 is expected to maintain strong cost support, with an average transaction price of 3950 CNY, indicating a shift from concentrated to dispersed ownership of soybean rights [1] Group 2: U.S. Soybean Market Analysis - As of last Friday, U.S. soybean futures closed at 1086.14 cents/bushel, down nearly 87 cents/bushel from late November's 1172.5 cents/bushel, reflecting a lack of positive factors for U.S. soybeans [2] - The USDA's December report did not adjust the domestic supply-demand balance, and favorable weather conditions in South America suggest a high likelihood of abundant soybean production for the 2025/2026 season, putting pressure on U.S. exports [2][3] - The EPA's proposal for biofuel blending volumes for the next two years is still under consideration, with a final decision unlikely to be announced this year [2] Group 3: South American Crop Conditions - The significant drop in CBOT soybean prices has led to a stronger Brazilian basis, with a weekly increase of 21 cents for February FOB prices, despite a slight overall price decline [4] - Brazil's northern early planting regions are entering the harvest phase, and favorable rainfall forecasts in the southern regions are beneficial for soybean growth [4] - Argentina has completed 58.6% of its soybean planting, with core areas achieving 60%-80% completion, although high soil moisture has slightly delayed operations [4] - Argentina has announced a reduction in soybean export taxes, lowering rates from 26% to 24% and from 24.5% to 22.5%, which may impact market dynamics [4]

2025年11月25日，在上海期货交易所(以下简称上期所)和西盟佤族自治县(以下简称西盟县)政府的支持 和指导下，国信期货有限责任公司(以下简称国信期货)及其风险子公司国信金阳资本管理有限公司(以下 简称国信金阳)联合中国太平洋财产保险股份有限公司云南分公司，在西盟县成功举办了天然橡胶"保险 +期货"专题培训会并开展联合党建活动，这已是国信期货连续四年为西盟注入金融活水，为当地天然 橡胶种植户构筑起风险保障屏障。 西盟县位于云南省普洱市，天然橡胶作为当地农户增收的支柱产业，其市场价格波动频繁让胶农面临增 收困境，"割胶辛苦却收益不稳"一度影响了胶农的生产积极性。自上期所推出"保险+期货"项目以来， 西盟县积极开展试点，借助此金融工具帮助胶农抵御价格市场风险，有效保障了橡胶生产的稳定性。此 次项目国信期货承保规模为4000吨，若市场价格低于保险约定的目标价格，可获得相应的差额赔付。 培训会上，各方围绕深化期货、保险与政府多方协作，探索以党建共建为抓手，推动橡胶产业高质量发 展等专题内容进行了深入交流，西盟县政府领导介绍了当地农业发展状况，并对往年"保险+期货"项目 的成果给予了高度的肯定，国信期货项目负责人围绕 ...

宏观面和供应面利好共振 2026年铜矿供应紧张，精铜生产放缓，供应端压力减轻，而在全球新型电力系统建设提速背景下，铜需 求增长可期。美国关税预期将持续"虹吸"全球铜库存，从而造成非美地区出现铜库存结构性短缺。基本 面支撑较强，叠加全球流动性宽松提供偏多宏观氛围，中期继续看涨。 从库存端来看，2025年以来，中国社库累积4.7万吨，保税区累库5.6万吨，LME去库10.6万吨，COMEX 累库32.4万吨，全球总库存累积32.1万吨，至81.2万吨。全球总库存增加明显，主要库存堆积在COMEX 市场，中国累库量和LME去库量相当。这一现象主要是由美国铜关税预期引发的，这一因素在2026年 将吸引全球可交割铜货源继续流向美国市场，从而导致非美地区的精铜实际可流通供应持续偏紧，形 成"全球总库存不低，但区域结构性短缺"的局面，非美地区将持续面临去库压力。 从宏观面来看，美元指数承压以及中国经济稳定增长为铜市提供支撑。美联储12月如期降息，美国财政 赤字问题与美联储主席换届预计将持续施压美元指数。中国继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的 货币政策，坚持"双碳"引领推动全面绿色转型。 综合来看，短期现货需求受到抑制， ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the benchmark interest rate, aligning with market expectations, bringing the total cuts for the year to 75 basis points, indicating a potential slowdown in rate cuts for the following year [1][2][3] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower the benchmark interest rate to a range of 3.50% to 3.75% marks the third consecutive cut this year, totaling 75 basis points for 2023 and 175 basis points since September of the previous year [2][3] - There was a notable internal dissent within the Federal Reserve, with three officials voting against the rate cut, indicating a higher level of disagreement regarding the extent of the cuts than previously anticipated [2][3] Group 2: Economic Outlook and Inflation - The Federal Reserve's economic outlook has become more optimistic, with GDP growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 raised to 1.7% and 2.3% respectively, while inflation expectations have been slightly adjusted downward [4] - The core service inflation rate has decreased from 4.3% to 3.5% from January to September, suggesting a trend of easing inflation pressures, particularly influenced by the housing market [8] Group 3: Labor Market Conditions - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of weakness, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.4%, the highest in four years, and a decline in private sector jobs reported [7] - The labor market's deterioration is raising the necessity for further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, as the overall employment situation remains fragile [7] Group 4: Future Policy Directions - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated a pause in rate cuts but left the possibility of a cut in January open, emphasizing the importance of upcoming economic data [5] - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve may continue to lower rates in the first half of 2026, contingent on the labor market's recovery and inflation trends [9] Group 5: Global Monetary Policy Context - The global monetary policy landscape is diverging, with the Federal Reserve in a rate-cutting cycle while other major central banks are in a holding pattern, reflecting varying economic conditions and inflation outlooks [10][12] - The potential appointment of a new Federal Reserve chair could influence future monetary policy directions, with current expectations leaning towards continued easing [10]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market continues to show strong performance, driven by various factors including expectations of monetary policy changes from the Federal Reserve and heightened geopolitical uncertainties [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices have recently broken through a two-week consolidation range, returning above $4,300 per ounce, with a notable increase in market support [2]. - Analysts expect gold prices to continue rising, with potential upward movement influenced by a weaker dollar and increased market risk aversion [2]. - Upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll and CPI data are anticipated to significantly impact economic outlook and precious metals market trends, with expectations of 40,000 new jobs and a stable unemployment rate of 4.4% [2][3]. Group 2: Platinum and Palladium Market Insights - Platinum and palladium prices have surged, with platinum futures rising by 7% and palladium by 4.73%, supported by favorable macroeconomic conditions and supply constraints [1][4]. - The supply side remains tight, with high leasing rates for platinum and palladium indicating ongoing supply pressure [4]. - The rise in silver prices has also positively influenced platinum and palladium, as increased demand for industrial metals drives investor interest [4]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook for Precious Metals - The long-term outlook for precious metals remains positive, supported by factors such as weakened dollar credibility and continued central bank gold purchases [4]. - Analysts predict that gold prices will experience a gradual upward trend, despite short-term fluctuations [4].

多空因素相互制衡 当前，铝市场呈现"供给平稳、需求具韧性、成本支撑减弱"的核心特征。而这背后，隐藏了怎样的交易 逻辑？ 沪铝期货价格自12月5日触及22395元/吨的高点后，上行动能减弱，转入高位震荡格局。当前走势核心 在于宏观预期与产业现实的博弈。多空因素相互制衡，使得价格在当前区间展开拉锯，市场正等待新的 驱动因素来打破僵局。 国内电解铝产量高位运行 据SMM统计，11月国内电解铝产量为363.66万吨，同比微增1.47%，环比下降2.82%，同期铝水比例环 比微降0.5个百分点，至77.3%，降幅低于预期，主要得益于铝厂周边加工产能释放以及铝棒加工费走强 支撑生产。经测算，11月电解铝铸锭量约为82.8万吨，同比下降13.4%，步入12月，预计电解铝运行产 能将环比小幅增长，部分新建电解铝项目计划于2025年年底至2026年年初起槽通电，其实际投产进度值 得关注。铝水比例方面，虽然下游需求边际转弱可能促使企业增加铸锭，但与此同时，部分利废企业因 废铝采购困难或成本过高转而采购铝水，加之个别铝厂配套加工项目投产放量，又对铝水比例形成支 撑。综合评估，预计12月铝水比例将下降0.75个百分点至76.6%。后 ...

早上好！ 先来看重要市场行情，截至收盘，COMEX黄金期货涨0.12%，报4333.30美元/盎司；COMEX白银期货 收涨3.42%，报64.13美元/盎司。 美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）数据显示，截至11月25日当周，COMEX黄金期货投机客将净多头 头寸增加11291份合约，至107976份合约；COMEX白银投机客将净多头头寸减少806份合约，至20127 份合约。 消息面上，据CME"美联储观察"，美联储明年1月降息25个基点的概率为24.4%，维持利率不变的概率 为75.6%；到明年3月累计降息25个基点的概率为43.5%，维持利率不变的概率为47.5%，累计降息50个 基点的概率为9.1%。 此外，特朗普还就对乌安全保障作简要说明，他表示，美国正在该问题上与欧洲合作。欧洲将在其中发 挥重要作用。特朗普表示，他们正在努力制定安全保障措施。 特朗普还表示，他与俄罗斯总统普京进行了多次对话，还得到了欧洲领导人的巨大支持，各方均希望结 束这场冲突。特朗普表示，必须让乌克兰和俄罗斯达成一致，他认为目前进展顺利，谈话也很有效。 泽连斯基与美国总统特使威特科夫、美国总统特朗普的女婿库什纳以及乌美两国代表 ...

Group 1 - The egg-laying chicken farming industry has entered a capacity clearing cycle, but the process will be prolonged due to the enhanced risk resistance of large-scale farming entities [1] - Since 2017, the egg-laying industry has experienced two significant phases of excessive culling, occurring in 2017 and 2020, driven by profit pressures [1] - In 2025, the level of losses in the egg-laying industry is expected to be comparable to that of 2020, with cumulative reductions in culling age approaching levels seen in 2017, yet the stock remains high [1] Group 2 - The market's supply and demand expectations influence the shape of the term structure, transitioning from a steep Contango to a flat Contango and eventually to a Back structure as prices reverse from the bottom [2] - The current egg futures market is in a Contango state, with the steepening trend due to hesitance in the culling process, and this low-near, high-far structure is expected to continue until supply-demand rebalancing occurs [2] - The overall industry is in a slow clearing phase, influenced by multiple factors including culling pace, restocking willingness, and market expectations, which require ongoing monitoring [2]

加拿大油菜籽出口疲软中国市场缺失 12月以来，ICE油菜籽期价持续承压下行，国内菜系中菜粕和菜籽油期价同样承压，虽然在持续下探过 后迎来小幅反弹，但整体呈现出明显的反弹乏力特征。 全球油菜籽产量预期上调供应压力加剧 目前加拿大油菜籽产业深陷"丰产滞销"的结构性困境，核心矛盾在于创纪录的产量与极度疲软的出口需 求形成鲜明对比。具体来看，加拿大统计局的最新报告确认，2025/2026年度加拿大油菜籽产量达到 2180万吨，这不仅创下历史最高纪录，而且显著超出市场此前预期的2125万吨，较9月份的预估大幅上 调了177万吨，同比更是增长了256万吨，增幅高达13.3%。无独有偶的是，美国农业部在12月供需报告 中也同步将加拿大2025/2026年度油菜籽产量预估上调至2200万吨，进一步强化了加拿大油菜籽供应宽 松的预期。加拿大油菜籽超预期的产量增长主要得益于有利的天气条件和增加的种植面积，这从根本上 改变了加拿大油菜籽的供需平衡表，为ICE油菜籽价格带来明显压力。此外，俄罗斯和澳大利亚的产量 上调进一步夯实了全球油菜籽供应宽松的基调。美国农业部在12月的供需报告中，将2025/2026年度全 球油菜籽产量预测值上 ...