Workflow
Qi Huo Ri Bao
icon
Search documents
中期协:11月全国期货市场成交量和成交额同比分别增长13.54%和7.11%
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-12-05 03:33
中国金融期货交易所的金融期货期权成交量为2576.52万手,占全国市场的3.35%;成交额为22.24万亿 元,占全国市场的33.39%。成交金额排名前三的品种分别是中证1000股指期货、中证500股指期货、沪 深300股指期货。 期货日报网讯12月5日,中国期货业协会发布的最新统计资料表明,以单边计算,11月全国期货市场成 交量为7.7亿手,成交额为66.61万亿元,同比分别增长13.54%和7.11%。1—11月全国期货市场累计成交量 为81.17亿手,累计成交额为675.45万亿元,同比分别增长14.74%和20.19%。 其中,按照成交额统计,排名各商品期货交易所前三的品种分别为上期所的黄金、白银、铜期货,郑商 所的玻璃、纯碱、甲醇期货,大商所的焦煤、棕榈油、豆粕期货,广期所的碳酸锂、多晶硅、工业硅期 货;按照成交量统计,排名各商品期货交易所前三的品种分别为上期所的白银、螺纹钢、燃料油期货, 郑商所的玻璃、纯碱、甲醇期货,大商所的豆粕、焦煤、聚氯乙烯期货,广期所的碳酸锂期货、碳酸锂 期权、工业硅期货。 截至2025年11月底,我国共上市期货期权品种164个。 ...
破立并举 期货市场运行量质齐升|非凡“十四五” 护实体远行
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-12-05 02:38
Core Viewpoint - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period is crucial for the high-quality development of China's futures market, which has achieved significant progress in price discovery, risk management, and resource allocation, contributing positively to rural revitalization, industrial upgrading, and green development [1][2]. Regulatory Framework - The legal and regulatory foundation is essential for the healthy development of the futures market, with the Futures and Derivatives Law implemented on August 1, 2022, enhancing the top-level design of the market's basic systems [2]. - The continuous improvement of the regulatory framework supports the stable and innovative development of the futures market, ensuring its core function of serving the real economy [2]. Market Performance - The futures market has shown steady progress over the past five years, maintaining a stable development trend despite various risks, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and U.S. tariff increases [3]. - As of August 2025, the average daily trading volume, open interest, and total funds in the futures market increased by 46.54%, 97.88%, and 131.69% respectively compared to 2020 [3]. Investor Structure - The investor structure has significantly improved, with institutional clients' holdings increasing, indicating a trend towards institutionalization and professionalism in the market [4][5]. - By mid-2025, the number of institutional clients in the futures market grew by approximately 90% compared to 2020, with the proportion of corporate clients' holdings reaching 65.34%, up by 7.94 percentage points [4]. Product Development - The number of futures and options products has surpassed 160, enhancing the market's ability to discover prices and manage risks, benefiting numerous enterprises and households [6]. - The introduction of new products and tools has provided more refined risk management options for enterprises, contributing to the stability of China's industrial and supply chains [7]. Future Outlook - The futures market is expected to focus on continuous innovation of new products and tools, particularly in alignment with national strategies such as the "dual carbon" goals [8]. - Future developments will also emphasize upgrading business models of futures companies, leveraging financial technology to enhance service efficiency and risk management capabilities [8].
沪镍 维持逢高沽空思路
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-12-05 02:29
Core Viewpoint - Nickel prices have been on a downward trend, with the Shanghai nickel main contract hitting a nearly five-year low of 113,980 yuan/ton on November 21, driven by revised Federal Reserve interest rate expectations, accelerated accumulation of refined nickel inventories, and ongoing supply-demand imbalances [1] Demand Structure - In the nickel industry demand structure from January to October 2025, stainless steel, power batteries, alloys, and electroplating accounted for 78.2%, 13.4%, 5.6%, and 1.6% of nickel consumption, respectively, totaling 98.6% [1] - The demand for stainless steel is significantly affected by the real estate sector, which has not shown substantial improvement, leading to continued pressure on stainless steel demand [1] - In the power battery sector, the market share of ternary materials has decreased to around 20% due to the cost advantages of lithium iron phosphate materials, while solid-state batteries are expected to become a key growth driver for nickel demand, although large-scale commercialization is not anticipated until 2030 [1] Alloy and Electroplating Demand - In the alloy sector, nickel consumption is projected to reach approximately 156,000 metal tons in 2025, an increase of 13,000 metal tons from 2024, but the overall contribution to total nickel demand remains limited [2] - Nickel demand in the electroplating sector has remained stable, averaging between 50,000 to 60,000 metal tons annually over the past five years [2] Supply and Production Trends - The supply of nickel intermediate products (MHP) has been growing significantly faster than high-grade nickel due to economic advantages, better raw material adaptability, and superior environmental compatibility [3] - As of October 2025, the profit margins for producing nickel sulfate and refined nickel using MHP are significantly higher than those for high-grade nickel, indicating a shift in production profitability [3] Inventory and Market Outlook - Domestic refined nickel supply is expected to continue increasing in 2025, with accelerated accumulation of inventories observed since the third quarter of this year [5] - Major refined nickel producers, particularly those with their own nickel mines or integrated projects in Indonesia, are likely to maintain profitability and market share despite challenges faced by smaller firms [5] - The overall supply-demand landscape for 2026 suggests that refined nickel demand will not see significant growth, while the continued release of low-cost MHP capacity will keep supply high, leading to a projected nickel price range of 100,000 to 125,000 yuan/ton [5]
铅价 下行空间有限
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-12-05 02:21
Core Viewpoint - The lead market is experiencing a mixed situation with a decline in lead prices leading to improved downstream purchasing activity, while tight raw material supply continues to restrict smelter operations [1][4]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Lead ingot supply has gradually recovered since mid-November, but high lead prices have suppressed downstream purchasing, resulting in a price decline from previous highs [1]. - The lead concentrate market remains tight, with processing fees at historically low levels. Domestic smelters have begun winter stockpiling, but the import window for lead concentrate has not fully opened [2]. - Domestic lead concentrate resources are nearly sold out due to rising silver prices, leading to sparse market quotes and low processing fees. However, the arrival of previously contracted imports has alleviated some raw material shortages [2]. Group 2: Market Behavior and Trends - The willingness of traders to sell has improved as many domestic recycled lead smelters have shifted to a multi-raw material production model, reducing their reliance on waste batteries [3]. - Despite a decline in processing fees, the prices of by-products like sulfuric acid and silver remain high, keeping overall profits for smelters relatively strong [3]. - The downstream market for electric bicycle batteries is experiencing a downturn, while the automotive battery market is entering a peak replacement season, leading to increased production rates among larger enterprises [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The lead market is expected to see a regional tightening of supply as primary lead smelters enter maintenance phases, while recycled lead smelters maintain stable operating rates if raw material arrivals remain consistent [4]. - The recent decline in lead prices has led to a recovery in downstream purchasing enthusiasm, with lead ingot inventories decreasing [4]. - The tight supply of raw materials is unlikely to improve significantly, which will continue to restrict smelter operations and limit the downward potential for lead prices [4].
利空逐步消化 焦煤有望迎来阶段性反弹
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-12-05 01:36
从库存结构来看,上游煤矿与洗煤厂累库明显,下游独立焦化厂则呈现去库态势,钢厂库存小幅波动。 这种库存向上游转移的现象显示出当前市场需求承接能力不足。从现货市场的贸易情况看,煤焦也确实 处于采购情绪偏谨慎的阶段,交易活跃度不高,竞拍流拍率较高。下游企业以消化自身库存为主,刚需 补库成为主流,投机需求受到明显抑制。不过,目前现货层面的利空因素已经逐步兑现。按蒙五原煤计 算的焦煤仓单价格在1150~1180元/吨,现货已经升水焦煤2601合约,期货盘面对现货层面的利空已经 进行计价。进入12月,焦煤市场的利多因素浮现,如神火股份下属煤矿暂时停产等事件,为市场提供了 潜在的反弹契机。市场正处于"估值到位但时间未到"的状态。 展望12月行情,焦煤期货将呈现"短期承压、中期震荡偏强"的格局。短期来看,铁水产量下降、焦炭提 降落地、进口煤持续到港等因素仍将对价格形成压制,焦煤期价仍有压力,但考虑到当前估值偏低、现 货价格底部支撑较强,进一步下跌的空间有限。中期来看,随着中央经济工作会议召开和释放政策信 号,宏观预期有望持续改善。随着焦煤价格持续下跌,补库性价比逐渐显现,下游焦钢企业补库的意愿 也将增强,冬储需求在12月中旬 ...
运行逻辑切换 螺纹钢存在阶段性反弹的可能
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-12-05 00:43
Group 1 - The rebar steel market is operating weakly, with the main contract closing at 3110 CNY/ton, a monthly increase of 0.13%, while the East China spot price is at 3250 CNY/ton, up 0.69% month-on-month, indicating a potential for a short-term rebound in December [2] - The apparent consumption of rebar steel decreased from 232.18 million tons at the end of October to 216.37 million tons by mid-November, with steel mills facing losses leading to negative feedback across the industry chain [3] - The macroeconomic outlook has strengthened, with expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut rising from 63% to 87% by December, alongside positive signals in domestic PMI data, suggesting improved demand [4] Group 2 - Environmental production restrictions in Tangshan have tightened, potentially affecting daily iron output by approximately 3.91 thousand tons, with further inspections and adjustments likely due to violations found in steel production capacity [5] - Demand for rebar steel has outperformed expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 1.15% in apparent demand during the last week of November, marking the first positive growth in four months [6] - The cost support logic remains intact, with iron ore inventories at a five-year low and coking coal inventories also relatively low, indicating room for replenishment and reinforcing cost support for steel production [8]
摩科瑞被曝大举提货 铜市神经紧绷!海外减停产频发 纸浆期价“三连涨”!
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-12-05 00:30
Group 1: Gold Market - The World Gold Council (WGC) forecasts that gold prices may rise by 15% to 30% by 2026, driven by declining U.S. Treasury yields, heightened geopolitical risks, and increased demand for safe-haven assets [2] Group 2: Copper Market - Mercuria plans to withdraw a significant amount of copper from LME's Asian warehouses, with a record increase in copper withdrawal applications of 50,575 tons, reaching a total of 56,875 tons, which constitutes 35% of LME's total inventory [4] - The supply tightness in copper is exacerbated by mine disruptions in Indonesia and Chile, leading to historically low copper inventories in LME-certified warehouses, which has contributed to recent price increases [4] - Recent predictions from Mercuria's executives indicate a bullish outlook for copper prices, suggesting that the surge in shipments to the U.S. may deplete global inventories, further driving prices up [4] Group 3: Labor Market - The U.S. Department of Labor reported that initial jobless claims fell by 27,000 to 191,000, the lowest level since September 2022, which is below market expectations of 220,000 [6] - The labor market remains in a "no layoffs, no hiring" state, with the upcoming non-farm payroll report delayed due to a government shutdown [6] Group 4: Pulp Market - Pulp futures prices have rebounded for three consecutive trading days, with a recent increase of 5.73%, driven by supply disruptions from overseas pulp mills [8][9] - Domtar announced the permanent closure of its Crofton mill, reducing annual NBSK pulp production by approximately 380,000 tons, while other mills are also considering temporary shutdowns due to market conditions [8] - Despite the rebound in pulp prices, analysts suggest that the fundamental market conditions have not significantly changed, and high inventory levels may continue to pressure prices [11]
摩科瑞被曝大举提货,铜市神经紧绷!海外减停产频发,纸浆期价“三连涨”!
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-12-05 00:15
Group 1: Gold Market - The World Gold Council (WGC) predicts that gold prices may rise by 15% to 30% by 2026 due to declining U.S. Treasury yields, heightened geopolitical risks, and increased demand for safe-haven assets [2] Group 2: Copper Market - Mercuria plans to withdraw a significant amount of copper from LME's Asian warehouses, with a record increase in copper withdrawal applications of 50,575 tons, reaching a total of 56,875 tons, which constitutes 35% of LME's total inventory [3] - The supply tightness in the copper market is exacerbated by mine disruptions in Indonesia and Chile, leading to historically low copper inventories in LME-certified warehouses [4] - Recent data indicates a slight retreat in copper prices after a record high, as the panic over supply tightness begins to ease [6] - The U.S. government has classified copper as a critical mineral under the Defense Production Act, aiming to secure domestic copper resources [3] Group 3: Pulp Market - Pulp futures prices have rebounded for three consecutive trading days, with a recent increase of 5.73%, driven by supply disruptions from overseas pulp mills [8] - Domtar announced the permanent closure of its Crofton plant, reducing annual pulp production by approximately 380,000 tons, while other mills are also considering temporary shutdowns [8] - The international market for wood chips remains tight, contributing to rising prices for hardwood pulp [9] - Despite recent price increases, the overall supply-demand situation in the pulp market remains limited, with concerns over downstream paper demand affecting price stability [10] - The market is closely monitoring the price changes of imported softwood and hardwood pulps, as well as the acceptance of price increases by downstream sectors [11]
“豆奶大王”维维股份的期货避险之道
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-12-04 16:12
Core Insights - The article highlights how Wewei Food and Beverage Co., Ltd. utilizes futures tools to manage costs and stabilize operations in the volatile agricultural market, particularly in the soybean milk industry [1][2][4]. Company Overview - Wewei, established in 1994, has over 30 years of experience and is the largest soybean milk producer in China, focusing on the research, production, and sales of soybean milk powder, plant protein beverages, and other food products [2][3]. - The company holds a leading market position, with its soybean milk powder maintaining the highest market share for several years and cumulative sales exceeding 70 billion bags [2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Wewei achieved a revenue of 3.656 billion yuan and a net profit of 411 million yuan [2]. Risk Management Strategy - Wewei faces challenges from agricultural price fluctuations due to various factors, including planting area, climate, and market demand. The company employs hedging strategies to lock in raw material costs and mitigate risks [2][3]. - The company engages in futures trading for key raw materials such as soybeans, corn, and oils to manage price volatility effectively [3][4]. Operational Excellence - Wewei operates three designated delivery warehouses for futures trading, showcasing its industry strength and operational expertise [3]. - The company emphasizes compliance and risk control in its futures operations, ensuring that hedging activities are conducted to support core business operations rather than for speculative purposes [5][6]. Future Outlook - Wewei plans to enhance its use of futures tools by upgrading its hedging models, improving information sharing across the supply chain, and developing professional services to better predict prices and execute hedging strategies [7][8]. - The integration of traditional industry practices with financial tools is seen as a way to revitalize the company and ensure sustainable growth in a competitive market [8].
投教宣传进校园,赋能河北资本市场发展
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-12-04 10:45
Group 1 - The event "Hebei Capital Market University Tour" aims to enhance financial literacy among university students and strengthen the influence of Hebei's capital market [1][2] - The Hebei Securities Regulatory Bureau highlighted the achievements of the capital market over the past 30 years and emphasized its role in supporting national strategies and modernization [1] - The collaboration between the Hebei Securities Regulatory Bureau, China Securities Association, and financial institutions aims to cultivate young talents who understand policies and maintain professional standards [1] Group 2 - A memorandum of cooperation was signed to establish long-term collaboration in investor education, curriculum development, internship opportunities, and resource sharing [2] - The event included a lecture on "Capital Market Reform and Development" and a recruitment drive involving nearly 40 market entities, receiving positive feedback from students and faculty [2] - Future plans include ongoing "Capital Market Lectures" at local universities to enhance students' financial literacy and risk identification skills [2]