Core Insights - The 2026 National Energy Work Conference was held to summarize the energy work of 2025 and the 14th Five-Year Plan, while deploying key tasks for 2026 [1] Group 1: Energy Security - The conference emphasized achieving a higher level of energy security in 2026 [1] - It aims to strengthen the coal supply guarantee, enhance electricity supply levels, and improve oil and gas production and supply capabilities [1] - The optimization of energy backbone channel layout and enhancement of the inherent safety level of energy infrastructure were also highlighted [1] Group 2: Green and Low-Carbon Transition - The conference outlined the need to advance the green and low-carbon transition in the energy sector [1] - There is a continuous effort to increase the proportion of renewable energy supply, with a target of adding over 20 million kilowatts of wind and solar power capacity throughout the year [1] - The orderly promotion of major hydropower projects and the safe and orderly development of nuclear power were also discussed, alongside the emphasis on the clean and efficient utilization of fossil energy [1]

12月16日，广期所铂、钯期价延续前一日的强势，均创下上市以来新高。其中，铂期货2606合约报收 485.75元/克，上涨2.46%，盘中最高升至505.60元/克；钯期货2606合约报收423.85元/克，上涨4.73%， 盘中最高升至432.05元/克。 中信期货分析师王美丹认为，基本面和情绪共振，推动铂、钯期价上涨。"全球流动性宽松预期给予 铂、钯价格较强支撑，同时基本面趋紧进一步拉动铂价上行。"王美丹解释称，从宏观层面来看，美联 储12月如期降息25个基点，扩表政策超市场预期，且市场对未来美联储独立性存在一定担忧，流动性宽 松预期有利于铂、钯价格进一步上行。 中信建投（601066）期货分析师王彦青认为，铂、钯期价上涨是多方面因素共振的结果。一方面，受黄 金牛市带动，铂、钯投资需求增加。铂、钯供给集中度高，主要来自南非与俄罗斯，且近年来行业产能 扩张停滞，供给增长受限。另一方面，美国关税担忧令现货向美国市场集中，市场可流通库存减少，特 别是伦敦现货市场库存偏紧，租赁利率上升，这是现货紧张的侧面体现。此外，美联储在12月议息会议 上决定启动扩表，压制美元指数，对铂、钯的金融属性形成利多，刺激铂、钯价格上 ...

Group 1 - A-shares experienced a collective decline on December 16, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 1.11%, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 1.51%, and the ChiNext Index down by 2.1%, with a total market turnover of approximately 1.74 trillion yuan [1] - Aerospace electronic stocks surged, with Aerospace Electronic (600879) hitting the daily limit and achieving a turnover exceeding 10 billion yuan, closing with over 180,000 hands of orders [1] - Aerospace Electronic announced a cash capital increase of 727.5 million yuan for its subsidiary, Aerospace Changzheng Rocket Technology Co., aiming to enhance its comprehensive capabilities and address funding needs for key technology research and development [1] Group 2 - The recent strengthening of the RMB against the USD is attributed to several factors, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts leading to a weaker dollar and a robust current account surplus in China, which supports the RMB's fundamentals [2] - The RMB has been considered undervalued since 2017, with a potential systemic undervaluation of approximately 6% compared to the weakening of the USD index, suggesting a significant appreciation of the RMB against the USD in the next 6 to 12 months [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Commerce of China has announced the final ruling on the anti-dumping investigation against imported pork and pig by-products from the European Union, confirming the existence of dumping and substantial damage to the domestic industry, leading to the imposition of anti-dumping duties starting December 17, 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Investigation and Findings - The investigation was initiated on June 17, 2024, in response to requests from the China Animal Husbandry Association, due to significant operational difficulties faced by the domestic industry [1]. - The final ruling confirmed that imported pork and pig by-products from the EU were found to be dumped, causing substantial harm to the domestic industry, with a causal relationship established between dumping and the damage [2]. Group 2: Anti-Dumping Duties - The anti-dumping duties will range from 4.9% to 19.8% for EU companies, effective from December 17, 2025, for a period of five years [1][3]. - Importers will be required to pay the anti-dumping duties based on the customs-determined taxable price of the imported goods [9]. Group 3: Product Scope and Description - The products under investigation include various forms of pork and pig by-products, such as fresh, chilled, frozen pork, and edible offal, among others [6][7]. - The specific product categories are classified under multiple tariff codes in the Chinese import-export tariff system [7]. Group 4: Review and Appeals - New exporters from the EU who were not involved during the investigation period may apply for a review under the anti-dumping regulations [10]. - Stakeholders can request a review of the anti-dumping duties during the enforcement period, and there are provisions for administrative review and litigation against the final ruling [10].

Group 1: Market Trends and Price Movements - The price spread between M2601-M2605 and M2603-M2605 has significantly widened, with M3-M5 rising above 330 CNY/ton, while M1-M5 is consolidating around 250 CNY/ton [1] - The Brazilian basis remains strong, particularly for the near months, while domestic sentiment is supported by extended customs clearance times for soybeans and relatively high auction prices [1] - The recent auction of imported soybeans on December 16 is expected to maintain strong cost support, with an average transaction price of 3950 CNY, indicating a shift from concentrated to dispersed ownership of soybean rights [1] Group 2: U.S. Soybean Market Analysis - As of last Friday, U.S. soybean futures closed at 1086.14 cents/bushel, down nearly 87 cents/bushel from late November's 1172.5 cents/bushel, reflecting a lack of positive factors for U.S. soybeans [2] - The USDA's December report did not adjust the domestic supply-demand balance, and favorable weather conditions in South America suggest a high likelihood of abundant soybean production for the 2025/2026 season, putting pressure on U.S. exports [2][3] - The EPA's proposal for biofuel blending volumes for the next two years is still under consideration, with a final decision unlikely to be announced this year [2] Group 3: South American Crop Conditions - The significant drop in CBOT soybean prices has led to a stronger Brazilian basis, with a weekly increase of 21 cents for February FOB prices, despite a slight overall price decline [4] - Brazil's northern early planting regions are entering the harvest phase, and favorable rainfall forecasts in the southern regions are beneficial for soybean growth [4] - Argentina has completed 58.6% of its soybean planting, with core areas achieving 60%-80% completion, although high soil moisture has slightly delayed operations [4] - Argentina has announced a reduction in soybean export taxes, lowering rates from 26% to 24% and from 24.5% to 22.5%, which may impact market dynamics [4]

2025年11月25日，在上海期货交易所(以下简称上期所)和西盟佤族自治县(以下简称西盟县)政府的支持 和指导下，国信期货有限责任公司(以下简称国信期货)及其风险子公司国信金阳资本管理有限公司(以下 简称国信金阳)联合中国太平洋财产保险股份有限公司云南分公司，在西盟县成功举办了天然橡胶"保险 +期货"专题培训会并开展联合党建活动，这已是国信期货连续四年为西盟注入金融活水，为当地天然 橡胶种植户构筑起风险保障屏障。 西盟县位于云南省普洱市，天然橡胶作为当地农户增收的支柱产业，其市场价格波动频繁让胶农面临增 收困境，"割胶辛苦却收益不稳"一度影响了胶农的生产积极性。自上期所推出"保险+期货"项目以来， 西盟县积极开展试点，借助此金融工具帮助胶农抵御价格市场风险，有效保障了橡胶生产的稳定性。此 次项目国信期货承保规模为4000吨，若市场价格低于保险约定的目标价格，可获得相应的差额赔付。 培训会上，各方围绕深化期货、保险与政府多方协作，探索以党建共建为抓手，推动橡胶产业高质量发 展等专题内容进行了深入交流，西盟县政府领导介绍了当地农业发展状况，并对往年"保险+期货"项目 的成果给予了高度的肯定，国信期货项目负责人围绕 ...

宏观面和供应面利好共振 2026年铜矿供应紧张，精铜生产放缓，供应端压力减轻，而在全球新型电力系统建设提速背景下，铜需 求增长可期。美国关税预期将持续"虹吸"全球铜库存，从而造成非美地区出现铜库存结构性短缺。基本 面支撑较强，叠加全球流动性宽松提供偏多宏观氛围，中期继续看涨。 从库存端来看，2025年以来，中国社库累积4.7万吨，保税区累库5.6万吨，LME去库10.6万吨，COMEX 累库32.4万吨，全球总库存累积32.1万吨，至81.2万吨。全球总库存增加明显，主要库存堆积在COMEX 市场，中国累库量和LME去库量相当。这一现象主要是由美国铜关税预期引发的，这一因素在2026年 将吸引全球可交割铜货源继续流向美国市场，从而导致非美地区的精铜实际可流通供应持续偏紧，形 成"全球总库存不低，但区域结构性短缺"的局面，非美地区将持续面临去库压力。 从宏观面来看，美元指数承压以及中国经济稳定增长为铜市提供支撑。美联储12月如期降息，美国财政 赤字问题与美联储主席换届预计将持续施压美元指数。中国继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的 货币政策，坚持"双碳"引领推动全面绿色转型。 综合来看，短期现货需求受到抑制， ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the benchmark interest rate, aligning with market expectations, bringing the total cuts for the year to 75 basis points, indicating a potential slowdown in rate cuts for the following year [1][2][3] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower the benchmark interest rate to a range of 3.50% to 3.75% marks the third consecutive cut this year, totaling 75 basis points for 2023 and 175 basis points since September of the previous year [2][3] - There was a notable internal dissent within the Federal Reserve, with three officials voting against the rate cut, indicating a higher level of disagreement regarding the extent of the cuts than previously anticipated [2][3] Group 2: Economic Outlook and Inflation - The Federal Reserve's economic outlook has become more optimistic, with GDP growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 raised to 1.7% and 2.3% respectively, while inflation expectations have been slightly adjusted downward [4] - The core service inflation rate has decreased from 4.3% to 3.5% from January to September, suggesting a trend of easing inflation pressures, particularly influenced by the housing market [8] Group 3: Labor Market Conditions - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of weakness, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.4%, the highest in four years, and a decline in private sector jobs reported [7] - The labor market's deterioration is raising the necessity for further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, as the overall employment situation remains fragile [7] Group 4: Future Policy Directions - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated a pause in rate cuts but left the possibility of a cut in January open, emphasizing the importance of upcoming economic data [5] - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve may continue to lower rates in the first half of 2026, contingent on the labor market's recovery and inflation trends [9] Group 5: Global Monetary Policy Context - The global monetary policy landscape is diverging, with the Federal Reserve in a rate-cutting cycle while other major central banks are in a holding pattern, reflecting varying economic conditions and inflation outlooks [10][12] - The potential appointment of a new Federal Reserve chair could influence future monetary policy directions, with current expectations leaning towards continued easing [10]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market continues to show strong performance, driven by various factors including expectations of monetary policy changes from the Federal Reserve and heightened geopolitical uncertainties [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices have recently broken through a two-week consolidation range, returning above $4,300 per ounce, with a notable increase in market support [2]. - Analysts expect gold prices to continue rising, with potential upward movement influenced by a weaker dollar and increased market risk aversion [2]. - Upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll and CPI data are anticipated to significantly impact economic outlook and precious metals market trends, with expectations of 40,000 new jobs and a stable unemployment rate of 4.4% [2][3]. Group 2: Platinum and Palladium Market Insights - Platinum and palladium prices have surged, with platinum futures rising by 7% and palladium by 4.73%, supported by favorable macroeconomic conditions and supply constraints [1][4]. - The supply side remains tight, with high leasing rates for platinum and palladium indicating ongoing supply pressure [4]. - The rise in silver prices has also positively influenced platinum and palladium, as increased demand for industrial metals drives investor interest [4]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook for Precious Metals - The long-term outlook for precious metals remains positive, supported by factors such as weakened dollar credibility and continued central bank gold purchases [4]. - Analysts predict that gold prices will experience a gradual upward trend, despite short-term fluctuations [4].

多空因素相互制衡 当前，铝市场呈现"供给平稳、需求具韧性、成本支撑减弱"的核心特征。而这背后，隐藏了怎样的交易 逻辑？ 沪铝期货价格自12月5日触及22395元/吨的高点后，上行动能减弱，转入高位震荡格局。当前走势核心 在于宏观预期与产业现实的博弈。多空因素相互制衡，使得价格在当前区间展开拉锯，市场正等待新的 驱动因素来打破僵局。 国内电解铝产量高位运行 据SMM统计，11月国内电解铝产量为363.66万吨，同比微增1.47%，环比下降2.82%，同期铝水比例环 比微降0.5个百分点，至77.3%，降幅低于预期，主要得益于铝厂周边加工产能释放以及铝棒加工费走强 支撑生产。经测算，11月电解铝铸锭量约为82.8万吨，同比下降13.4%，步入12月，预计电解铝运行产 能将环比小幅增长，部分新建电解铝项目计划于2025年年底至2026年年初起槽通电，其实际投产进度值 得关注。铝水比例方面，虽然下游需求边际转弱可能促使企业增加铸锭，但与此同时，部分利废企业因 废铝采购困难或成本过高转而采购铝水，加之个别铝厂配套加工项目投产放量，又对铝水比例形成支 撑。综合评估，预计12月铝水比例将下降0.75个百分点至76.6%。后 ...