Group 1 - The egg-laying chicken farming industry has entered a capacity clearing cycle, but the process will be prolonged due to the enhanced risk resistance of large-scale farming entities [1] - Since 2017, the egg-laying industry has experienced two significant phases of excessive culling, occurring in 2017 and 2020, driven by profit pressures [1] - In 2025, the level of losses in the egg-laying industry is expected to be comparable to that of 2020, with cumulative reductions in culling age approaching levels seen in 2017, yet the stock remains high [1] Group 2 - The market's supply and demand expectations influence the shape of the term structure, transitioning from a steep Contango to a flat Contango and eventually to a Back structure as prices reverse from the bottom [2] - The current egg futures market is in a Contango state, with the steepening trend due to hesitance in the culling process, and this low-near, high-far structure is expected to continue until supply-demand rebalancing occurs [2] - The overall industry is in a slow clearing phase, influenced by multiple factors including culling pace, restocking willingness, and market expectations, which require ongoing monitoring [2]

加拿大油菜籽出口疲软中国市场缺失 12月以来，ICE油菜籽期价持续承压下行，国内菜系中菜粕和菜籽油期价同样承压，虽然在持续下探过 后迎来小幅反弹，但整体呈现出明显的反弹乏力特征。 全球油菜籽产量预期上调供应压力加剧 目前加拿大油菜籽产业深陷"丰产滞销"的结构性困境，核心矛盾在于创纪录的产量与极度疲软的出口需 求形成鲜明对比。具体来看，加拿大统计局的最新报告确认，2025/2026年度加拿大油菜籽产量达到 2180万吨，这不仅创下历史最高纪录，而且显著超出市场此前预期的2125万吨，较9月份的预估大幅上 调了177万吨，同比更是增长了256万吨，增幅高达13.3%。无独有偶的是，美国农业部在12月供需报告 中也同步将加拿大2025/2026年度油菜籽产量预估上调至2200万吨，进一步强化了加拿大油菜籽供应宽 松的预期。加拿大油菜籽超预期的产量增长主要得益于有利的天气条件和增加的种植面积，这从根本上 改变了加拿大油菜籽的供需平衡表，为ICE油菜籽价格带来明显压力。此外，俄罗斯和澳大利亚的产量 上调进一步夯实了全球油菜籽供应宽松的基调。美国农业部在12月的供需报告中，将2025/2026年度全 球油菜籽产量预测值上 ...

Group 1: Market Dynamics - The price of aluminum futures has entered a high-level oscillation pattern after reaching a peak of 22,395 yuan/ton on December 5, with market dynamics influenced by macroeconomic expectations and industrial realities [1] - The aluminum market is characterized by a balance of supply and demand, with prices currently in a tug-of-war as the market awaits new driving factors to break the deadlock [1] Group 2: Production and Supply - In November, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 3.6366 million tons, a slight year-on-year increase of 1.47% but a month-on-month decrease of 2.82% [2] - The aluminum water ratio decreased slightly to 77.3%, with expectations for a further decline to 76.6% in December due to marginal weakening of downstream demand [2] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory remained at a relatively low level of 596,000 tons as of December 15, supported by stable demand despite the traditional off-season [4] Group 3: Cost and Profitability - In November, the average cost of the domestic electrolytic aluminum industry decreased slightly by 0.14% to 16,057 yuan/ton, while profits surged by 10.7% to approximately 5,433.03 yuan/ton [5] - By December 12, the immediate profit for domestic electrolytic aluminum had risen to 5,715.47 yuan/ton, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase [5] Group 4: Import Trends - From January to October, China imported approximately 2.211 million tons of primary aluminum, a year-on-year increase of 21.2%, with October imports reaching 248,400 tons, a substantial increase of 42.08% year-on-year [3] - The concentration of import sources remains high, with Russia as the largest supplier and Indonesia showing rapid growth [3] Group 5: Automotive Industry Performance - The Chinese automotive industry showed steady growth in November, with production and sales reaching 3.532 million and 3.429 million units, respectively, marking a year-on-year increase of 2.8% and 3.4% [6] - New energy vehicles (NEVs) performed particularly well, with production and sales exceeding 1.88 million units, representing a year-on-year growth of over 20% [6] Group 6: Economic Outlook - The overall domestic economy is showing signs of recovery, but structural issues such as insufficient effective demand remain prominent [8] - The aluminum market is characterized by stable supply, resilient demand, and weakening cost support, with expectations for continued high-level oscillation in prices [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the benchmark interest rate, aligning with market expectations, bringing the total cuts for the year to 75 basis points, indicating a potential slowdown in rate cuts for the following year [1][2] Interest Rate Decisions - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower the rate to a range of 3.50% to 3.75% marks the third consecutive cut this year, with a total reduction of 175 basis points since September of the previous year [2] - There was a notable dissent among the Federal Reserve officials, with three voting against the rate cut, indicating internal disagreements on the extent of the cuts [2][3] - The updated dot plot suggests a more dovish outlook, with expectations for only one rate cut in 2026 and a long-term rate forecast of 3.0% [4] Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve's economic projections have become more optimistic, raising GDP growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 1.7% and 2.3% respectively, while slightly lowering inflation expectations [4] - The labor market is showing signs of weakness, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.4%, and private sector job losses reported, particularly among small businesses [7] Inflation Trends - Inflation has remained moderate, with core service inflation decreasing from 4.3% to 3.5% over the first nine months of the year, indicating a potential for continued low inflation levels [8] - The overall inflation trend is influenced by the performance of core services, particularly rent, which lags behind housing prices [8] Future Policy Signals - The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated a pause in rate cuts but left the possibility of a cut in January open, depending on forthcoming economic data [5] - The market is currently pricing in expectations for further rate cuts, with a consensus that the Federal Reserve may lower rates to around 3% in the future [10] Global Monetary Policy Context - The global monetary policy landscape is diverging, with the Federal Reserve in a rate-cutting cycle while other major central banks are on hold or pausing [10][12] - The potential appointment of a new Federal Reserve Chair could influence future monetary policy directions, with current speculation favoring a dovish stance [10][14]

展望未来，预计2026年碳酸锂维持供需双增态势，价格中枢或整体上移，供应端和需求端的年度增速都 有望达到30%。对于储能方面能否在2026年及以后拉动总需求超预期增长，目前行业内分歧比较大。如 果根据《新型储能规模化建设专项行动方案（2025—2027）》中"2027年全国新型储能装机规模在1.8亿 千瓦（180吉瓦）以上"的总体目标来推算，30%左右的年度增速可能是储能需求增速的基准点。 为应对锂价波动，实现稳健发展，产业链企业可以基于产量、库存量等生产经营情况，运用期货进行套 期保值，稳定原料采购成本或锁定产品销售利润。矿产资源储备较充足、技术不断创新、成本控制力强 的企业可能在发展中进一步巩固自身优势。 在政策引导行业加快技术进步和转型升级发展的背景下，锂盐企业需要从技术创新、绿色发展、产业协 同等多个方面入手，着力提升产业竞争力，增强自身资源保障能力与产业链协同水平。 近期，锂电下游需求相对乐观，储能行业维持高景气度，市场对2026年一季度需求有"淡季不淡"的预 期。2026年年初需要留意下游补库需求和个别锂资源项目复产进度，关注储能需求和供需两侧政策的后 续变动。（作者单位：广州期货） 周一碳酸锂期 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in alumina futures prices, which have dropped below 2500 yuan/ton, raise questions about potential turning points in the market as prices rebounded last Friday [1]. Group 1: Production and Supply - In November, domestic bauxite production was 4.698 million tons, a slight decrease of 1.6% month-on-month and a 5.3% year-on-year decline; cumulative production from January to November reached 55.213 million tons, up 4.2% year-on-year [1]. - The total production of metallurgical-grade alumina in November was 7.4394 million tons, down 4.4% month-on-month but up 1.4% year-on-year; cumulative production from January to November was 81.897 million tons, an increase of 7.4% year-on-year [2]. - As of last Thursday, the total capacity for metallurgical-grade alumina remained at 11.032 million tons/year, with operational capacity at 8.7832 million tons/year, and the weekly operating rate slightly increased by 0.15 percentage points to 79.62% [2]. Group 2: Pricing and Market Dynamics - The alumina price index reported 2804.9 yuan/ton last Thursday, a decrease of 16.48 yuan/ton from the previous week, with a premium of 300 yuan/ton over the futures settlement price [3]. - Domestic alumina total inventory reached 5.061 million tons, continuing to rise, while electrolytic aluminum plants held 3.516 million tons of alumina inventory, indicating relatively sufficient raw material reserves [2]. Group 3: Import and Inventory Trends - In October, China imported 13.77 million tons of bauxite, a month-on-month decrease of 13.3% but a year-on-year increase of 12.3%; cumulative imports from January to October reached 170.96 million tons, up 30% year-on-year, with Guinea accounting for 74% of imports [1]. - As of last weekend, domestic bauxite port inventory was 26.4354 million tons, a significant decrease of 1.475 million tons from the previous week [1].

"跌跌不休"的氯碱化工市场终于迎来"喘息"之机，继PVC期价跌破2015年低点、烧碱期价创上市以来新 低后，12月15日两大品种均出现反弹行情，烧碱主力合约涨幅达3.32%；PVC期货主力合约也在触及 4241元/吨的历史低位后止跌回稳。令市场关心的是，这场超预期的下跌是否已触底？此次反弹背后又 藏着哪些底部信号？ 采访中，期货日报记者了解到，此次氯碱品种的持续走弱市场早有预期，但跌幅之深却超出多数参与者 判断。两大品种的下跌逻辑虽各有侧重，但"高供应、弱需求、高库存"的共性矛盾贯穿始终。 "PVC的矛盾激化核心在供应端。"一德期货分析师张丽表示，上半年PVC还处于良性去库周期，自去年 11月开启的去库趋势延续至5月底，高库存矛盾有效缓解，西北地区企业甚至从微亏转向微盈，但6月后 形势急转直下，春检结束后存量开工同比偏高，叠加8月后135万吨新增产能兑现，形成"存量+增量"双 杀格局，供应大幅放量。 需求端则缺乏支撑。尽管2025年1—10月PVC粉出口同比增加49%，但11月后出口略有回落，而占需求 65%的地产端持续低迷，2025年1—7月全国房屋新开工面积同比下降19.4%，下游管材、型材企业开工 率仅 ...

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices have entered a new upward trend since late November, driven by macroeconomic factors and supply-side concerns, with expectations of continued support through 2026 [1] Supply Side Summary - Over 3 million tons of smelting capacity is expected to be added in 2025-2026, outpacing copper mine supply growth, which will continue to dominate refined copper supply [2] - The processing fee for imported copper concentrate is currently at -42.86 USD/ton, indicating ongoing tightness in copper mine supply [2] - Major new copper mine projects expected to contribute to supply include the second phase of the Jilong Copper Mine and the Mirador Phase II project, with a projected increase of 540,000 tons in global copper mine supply by 2026 [2] - The next significant release of copper mine capacity is not expected until 2028, maintaining a tight supply situation for copper concentrates through 2026 [2] Demand Side Summary - High copper prices have led to a decline in operating rates for refined copper products, with a notable increase in the price difference between refined copper and scrap copper, highlighting a substitution effect [3] - Despite short-term demand suppression, there is no significant pessimism in the market, as copper plays a crucial role in the global transition to green energy and electrification [3] - The demand for copper is shifting from traditional sectors to new energy systems, with significant growth expected in global grid investment and data centers, projected to increase by 20% annually from 2026 to 2028 [3] - The global energy storage market is anticipated to see explosive growth starting in 2025, further driving copper demand [3] Inventory Summary - Since 2025, total global copper inventory has increased significantly, with notable accumulations in COMEX and a structural shortage in non-US regions due to expectations of US copper tariffs [4] - The macroeconomic environment, including a pressured US dollar and stable growth in the Chinese economy, is providing support for the copper market [4] - While short-term demand is suppressed, the overall supply pressure is easing, and the construction of new energy systems is expected to drive copper demand growth, leading to a slight reduction in copper inventory by 2026 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The chemical industry is increasingly adopting hedging strategies as a standard practice, with companies actively engaging in risk management through futures and derivatives to navigate a complex market environment [1][4]. Group 1: Hedging Plans and Announcements - Companies like 佛燃能源 and 华润材料 have announced significant hedging plans, with 佛燃能源 planning to invest up to 4.17 billion yuan for commodity hedging and natural gas price locking [1]. - 中国海油 has also disclosed a hedging plan involving a guarantee of 350 million USD, indicating a trend of proactive risk management among chemical enterprises [1][2]. Group 2: Characteristics of Hedging Activities - Recent hedging announcements from chemical companies show a strong alignment with industry needs, with hedging amounts closely tied to actual business operations, reflecting a deep understanding of the essence of hedging [2]. - There is a notable diversification in the types of hedging instruments used, with companies focusing on core product categories and employing various derivatives such as futures, forwards, swaps, and options [2][3]. Group 3: Risk Management Framework - Companies are establishing comprehensive risk management systems that cover all stages of the hedging process, including position limits, trading authorization mechanisms, and credit evaluations of trading partners [3]. - This full-chain risk prevention mechanism aims to mitigate potential risks from extreme market conditions, defaults, and operational errors, thereby ensuring the stable execution of hedging activities [3]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Demand for Hedging - The surge in hedging enthusiasm among chemical companies is driven by changes in the operating environment and improvements in market tools, with increased uncertainty due to fluctuating raw material prices and competitive pressures [4][5]. - The geopolitical situation, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict, has intensified these pressures, leading to a decline in profit margins for companies as costs rise and selling prices fall [4]. Group 5: Evolution of Hedging Practices - The domestic futures market's development has provided a solid foundation for chemical companies' hedging activities, with a growing array of futures and options available for risk management [5]. - Data indicates a clear trend in the hedging wave, with a significant increase in the number of companies announcing hedging activities, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 153% [5]. Group 6: Strategic Shift in Business Models - Chemical companies are evolving their use of futures from mere risk hedging to innovative business models and gaining pricing power within the industry [6][7]. - Leading companies are transitioning from "using futures for hedging" to "using futures for business operations," with the ability to manage risks across the entire supply chain becoming a distinguishing factor between industry leaders and average participants [7].

深入一线，夯实工作根基。2025年11月底，东证期货联合中国太保（601601）产险云南分公司，赴孟连 县勐马镇天然橡胶林实地勘察。作为当地重要支柱产业，孟连县天然橡胶种植面积达30.33万亩、从业 人员逾1.9万，覆盖人口2.8万余人。然而近年来橡胶价格波动剧烈，胶农收入不稳，种植意愿骤减，严 重制约产业可持续发展。 为深入贯彻落实国家关于巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果、全面推进乡村振兴的决策部署，2025年10月底，在上 海期货交易所的大力支持下，东证期货天然橡胶"保险+期货"项目再次顺利落地云南省孟连傣族拉祜族 佤族自治县(以下简称"孟连县")。 党建引领，凝聚发展合力。自2018年起，东证期货与孟连县开启乡村振兴战略合作。2024年，东证期货 党委与孟连县茶叶和特色生物产业发展中心党支部签订党建共建协议，连续2年开展实地调研与共建交 流，以"项目推进+党建引领+知识培训"组合拳，总结经验、优化方案、凝聚合力，推动"保险+期货"业 务扎实落地，助力孟连县天然橡胶产业发展实现新突破。 金融护航，激发产业活力。2025年，东证期货携子公司东证润和，与太保云南分公司通力合作，采取增 强亚式看跌结构期权方案，实现投保面积 ...