Core Viewpoint - The USD/CAD exchange rate is experiencing narrow fluctuations, influenced by international oil prices, divergent monetary policies, and geopolitical risks [1] Group 1: Currency Fluctuations - The USD/CAD exchange rate closed at 1.3696, with a slight increase of 0.09%, and reached a peak of 1.3700 during the day [1] - The Canadian dollar, as a commodity currency, is highly correlated with oil prices, which have stabilized around $57.80 per barrel [1] - Geopolitical risks, including conflicts in Venezuela and Ukraine, are providing support for the Canadian dollar [1] Group 2: Oil Prices and Economic Indicators - WTI crude oil prices rose by 1.6% the previous day, but there are concerns about OPEC+ increasing production, which could lead to a decline in oil prices and weaken support for the Canadian dollar [1] - The Canadian economy shows positive indicators with a November CPI of 2.2%, an addition of 53,000 jobs, and a GDP growth of 2.6% in Q3, supporting the Canadian dollar [1] Group 3: Monetary Policy Divergence - The Federal Reserve has cumulatively cut interest rates by 75 basis points in 2025, with expectations for continued easing in 2026, which diminishes the dollar's interest rate advantage [1] - The Canadian central bank has maintained a benchmark interest rate of 2.25%, with a cautious neutral tone, and there are market expectations for a potential rate cut in Q1 2026 [1] Group 4: Technical Analysis - The exchange rate is in a high-level consolidation phase, trading within the range of 1.3620 to 1.3800, with the 50-day moving average providing medium-term support [2] - Key support levels are identified at 1.3650 to 1.3620, with potential declines to 1.3550 to 1.3580 if these levels are breached [2] - Resistance levels are noted at 1.3720 and 1.3800, with analysts suggesting that the exchange rate may continue to oscillate within this range [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) has strengthened significantly, reaching a 14-month high against the US dollar (USD) due to a combination of hawkish signals from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), expectations of US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts, and favorable commodity prices driven by China's recovery [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - As of December 31, 2025, the AUD/USD exchange rate reached 0.6700, reflecting a daily increase of 0.12% and an annual rise of over 7% since the low of 0.6420 in mid-November [1]. - Australia's inflation rate in October was reported at 3.8%, exceeding the RBA's target of 2%-3%, with December inflation expectations rising to 4.7% [1]. - Market pricing indicates a nearly 50% probability of an interest rate hike by March 2026, with mainstream forecasts suggesting a potential increase to 3.85% in the first meeting of the year [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The RBA's hawkish stance is a key driver of the AUD's strength, while the Fed's easing expectations have contributed to a decline in the USD index by over 10% for the year [1][2]. - The Fed has implemented three rate cuts since September 2025, with current rates at 3.50%-3.75%, and further cuts are anticipated next year [1]. - The AUD benefits from rising commodity prices and improved trade balances due to recovering exports of iron ore and coal, alongside positive expectations from China's targeted investment plans [1]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The AUD/USD has formed an upward trend from 0.6420, currently consolidating around 0.6700, with resistance at 0.6727 and support at 0.6650 [2]. - The MACD indicates that bullish momentum remains, although it is slowing, while the RSI (14) is at 66.4278, suggesting that the market is not yet overbought [2]. - Institutions are optimistic about the AUD's future, with target prices ranging from 0.72 to 0.92 USD, although risks such as global economic slowdown and trade tensions may limit gains [2].

技术面空头主导格局明确，汇价跌破0.79支撑与20日均线，形成"熊旗"形态，MACD处于零轴下方印证 下行。RSI接近超卖，提示短期或有反弹。阻力位集中于0.7960(20日均线)、0.8060及0.8200；支撑位 0.7860-0.7830，跌破后或下探0.7770。 经济、贸易及避险情绪进一步加剧下行压力。瑞士经济展现韧性，制造业与服务业增长对冲GDP短期收 缩，为政策稳定奠基；美元受指数全年跌9%的广谱弱势拖累。美瑞11月签署贸易协议，美国大幅下调 瑞士商品关税，缓解出口担忧。全球不确定性下，瑞郎避险需求旺盛，与美元避险属性此消彼长。需注 意的是，瑞士央行面临通缩与干预困境，市场预期可能重启负利率，但外部干预阻力较大，增加汇价不 确定性。 2026年机构普遍看空，仅认可短期技术性反弹。渣打指出反弹阻力位0.8060、强阻力0.8200，持续性有 限；瑞银强调美元结构性问题未解决，叠加政策分化，中长期下行趋势难改。短期需关注瑞士CPI、美 联储讲话及美国非农；中长期聚焦美瑞利差、瑞士央行政策转向及避险情绪，警惕央行干预冲击。 2025年末，美元兑瑞郎低位震荡，12月30日亚市早盘交投于0.7895，逼近 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the USD/CHF exchange rate is expected to remain weak, with a cumulative decline of over 10% in 2025 and a potential further drop in 2026 [1] - Divergence in monetary policy is a key driver for the downward trend, with the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 75 basis points in 2025 and a 73.3% probability of an additional 50 basis points cut in 2026, while the Swiss National Bank maintains a 0% interest rate [1] - The Swiss economy shows resilience with an expected growth rate slightly below 1.5% for the year, supported by a trade agreement that significantly reduces tariffs on U.S. exports to Switzerland [1] Group 2 - The technical outlook is bearish, with the exchange rate breaking below the 0.79 support level and the 20-day moving average, indicating a bearish MACD structure [2] - Institutions have mixed short-term views, with Standard Chartered expecting a potential rebound to 0.8060, while UBS maintains a bearish outlook extending into the first half of 2026 [2] - Key short-term data to monitor includes the Federal Reserve minutes, U.S. non-farm payrolls, and Swiss CPI, while long-term focus should be on the USD/CHF interest rate differential and global risk sentiment [2]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 528.8 billion yuan today, resulting in a net injection of 502.8 billion yuan after 26 billion yuan of reverse repos matured [1] - This week, the central bank executed a total of 1,322.6 billion yuan in reverse repos, with 152.6 billion yuan maturing, leading to a net injection of 1,171.0 billion yuan, marking the highest weekly net injection in two months [1] Group 2 - The central bank authorized the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center to announce the central parity rates for the Renminbi against various currencies as of December 31, 2025, with 1 USD equaling 7.0288 CNY and 1 EUR equaling 8.2355 CNY [2] - The exchange rates include 1 GBP to 9.4346 CNY, 1 AUD to 4.6892 CNY, and 1 NZD to 4.0520 CNY, among others, reflecting the Renminbi's value against multiple foreign currencies [2]

Group 1 - The latest price of gold futures for December 31, 2025, is 986.34 CNY per gram [2] - The opening price was 993.76 CNY per gram, while the previous closing price was 984.84 CNY per gram [2] - The highest price recorded was 993.76 CNY per gram, and the lowest was 983.06 CNY per gram [2]

北京时间周三(12月31日)亚盘时段，美元指数交投于98.230附近，现货白银今日开盘于76.23美元/盎司， 目前交投于75.23美元/盎司附近，白银t+d交投于18380元/千克附近，沪银主力交投于18345元/千克附 近。今日基本面关注美国至12月27日当周初请失业金人数。 周二(12月30日)美元指数上涨0.21%，收报98.224，现货白银收报76.18美元/盎司，上涨5.58%，由于贵 金属经历踩踏式抛售后开始收复失地，现货黄金从前一交易日的暴跌中反弹，一度重回4400美元关口， 现货白银也收复了大部分失地，盘中触及78美元关口：现货黄金上涨0.13%，报4337.29美元/盎司，现 货铂金收涨4.11%，报2189.00美元/盎司；现货钯金收跌1.23%，至1601.00元/盎司。 12月30日白银ETF持仓16455.42吨，较前一交易日上涨149.46吨； 12月30日延期补偿费支付方向：Ag(T+D)--空付多。 【要闻速递】 1、美联储会议纪要：官员分歧严重，多数人认为利率可随通胀下降而下降。 2、伊朗外交部：伊朗将加拿大皇家海军列为"恐怖组织"。 3、泰国外交部：暂不具备举行泰柬联合边 ...

Market Situation - A-shares opened lower on Tuesday but rallied in the afternoon, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing down 0.0% at 3965.12 points. The Shenzhen Component rose by 0.49%, and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.63% [1] - Among individual stocks, 1840 rose (66 hitting the daily limit), while 3481 fell (19 hitting the lower limit). Notable gainers included Shuangxin Environmental Protection (+187.30%), N Qiangyi (+165.61%), and Yufan Technology (+124.36%). Major losers were *ST Dongtong (-59.27%), Guangdao Tui (-29.49%), and *ST Tianlong (-19.96%) [1] - The energy sector performed well, with oil and gas, automotive parts, and petrochemicals rising by 3.07%, 2.44%, and 1.96% respectively. Conversely, high-dividend sectors saw a collective decline, with power generation equipment, retail, and education down by 2.02%, 1.85%, and 1.75% respectively [1] Futures Market - The four major index futures contracts mostly rose, with IF2603 and IC2603 increasing by 0.36% and 0.59% respectively, while IH2603 fell by 0.03% and IM2603 rose by 0.24%. The basis for these contracts showed some recovery [2] News - The 2026 national subsidy plan was officially released, with the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance announcing a first batch of 625 billion yuan to support the replacement of old consumer goods. New products eligible for subsidies include smart glasses and smart home devices, while categories like home decoration and electric bicycles were removed [3] - For new car purchases, subsidies will be 12% or 10% of the car price, with a cap of 20,000 yuan or 15,000 yuan continuing from 2025 standards. The scope of household appliance subsidies has been narrowed to six categories, with the subsidy rate for first-level energy-efficient appliances reduced from 20% to 15% and the maximum subsidy per appliance decreased from 2000 yuan to 1500 yuan [3] - The Federal Reserve's December meeting minutes indicated a consensus on the need for interest rate cuts, although there were significant disagreements among officials regarding the timing and extent of future rate adjustments [3] Capital Market - On December 30, the A-share market maintained stable trading volume with a total turnover of 2.14 trillion yuan. Northbound capital transactions amounted to 2380.18 billion yuan. The central bank conducted a 3125 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with 593 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing, resulting in a net injection of 2532 billion yuan for the day [4] Operational Suggestions - With short-term negative factors dissipating, indices have rebounded consecutively, and broad-based ETFs have shown significant inflows. The current volatility is on the rise, and the renminbi exchange rate has notably increased, suggesting core assets may trend upward. However, there may be short-term fluctuations due to potential capital withdrawals before the holiday, recommending the continued holding of bull spread combinations and a small amount of selling near-month out-of-the-money call options for hedging [5]

【要闻速递】 据CME"美联储观察"，市场对美联储未来降息预期趋于保守：明年1月降息25基点的概率仅14.9%，维 持利率不变概率高达85.1%；到3月累计降息25基点的概率为45.2%，维持不变48.3%，累计降息50基点 仅6.5%。 摘要今日周三(12月31日)亚盘时段，现货黄金交投于4344美元/盎司附近，金价周二反弹，势将创下自 1979年以来最大年度涨幅，受益于美联储降息预期、持续的地缘政治紧张、各国央行强劲的购金需求， 以及大量资金流入黄金ETF。 今日周三(12月31日)亚盘时段，现货黄金交投于4344美元/盎司附近，金价周二反弹，势将创下自1979年 以来最大年度涨幅，受益于美联储降息预期、持续的地缘政治紧张、各国央行强劲的购金需求，以及大 量资金流入黄金ETF。 【最新现货黄金行情解析】 昨日黄金走势与10月21日高度相似：价格在暴跌后出现技术性修正，晚间于4403一线承压回落。今日金 价徘徊于5-10日均线附近，尾盘最低下探近70美元。 日线图上，大阴之后收出带长上影的小阳孕线，整体仍处于修正下跌格局，与4380前一轮下跌形成对 称，预示后市震荡后仍将进一步下探至下方支撑区域。 多周期压 ...

【要闻速递】 【最新现货黄金行情解析】 摘要今日周三(12月31日)亚盘时段，现货黄金目前交投于4549.57美元附近，截至发稿，现货黄金最新报 4353.23美元/盎司，涨幅0.36%，最高上探至4359.93美元/盎司，最低触及4328.09美元/盎司。目前来 看，现货黄金短线偏向震荡走势。 黄金4380承压可空：自4550一线开启回调后，大阴线一度下探至4300附近，当前K线反弹属正常修正， 但短期下行趋势未改。日线级别以大阴实体呈现"乌云盖顶"形态，且收出上影线，明确构成压制。 今日周三(12月31日)亚盘时段，现货黄金目前交投于4549.57美元附近，截至发稿，现货黄金最新报 4353.23美元/盎司，涨幅0.36%，最高上探至4359.93美元/盎司，最低触及4328.09美元/盎司。目前来 看，现货黄金短线偏向震荡走势。 2025年12月美联储会议纪要曝光决策层深度分歧：12月9-10日会议宣布降息25基点至3.5%-3.75%，系连 续第三次降息。决议经充分辩论达成，多数官员视其为稳定劳动力市场的必要之举——近期就业增长放 缓、失业率攀升倒逼行动，但支持者亦坦言属"微妙平衡"，部分本倾向按兵不 ...