摘要周三(2月4日)亚洲时段，贵金属止跌反弹，美联储释放降息信号、美国政府停摆结束及美印贸易协 议推进，叠加交易所调整风控措施，共同提振贵金属市场情绪，推动金银价格上涨。现货金银持续走 高，日内均涨超2%。现货白银站上88美元上方，现货黄金突破5070美元/盎司。 周三(2月4日)亚洲时段，贵金属止跌反弹，美联储释放降息信号、美国政府停摆结束及美印贸易协议推 进，叠加交易所调整风控措施，共同提振贵金属市场情绪，推动金银价格上涨。现货金银持续走高，日 内均涨超2%。现货白银站上88美元上方，现货黄金突破5070美元/盎司。 周二，美元指数震荡下行，盘中虽有反弹，但随后迅速回吐全部涨幅，最终收跌0.22%，报97.39；基准 的10年期美债收益率收报4.267%，对美联储政策利率敏感的2年期美债收益率收报3.578%。金银在连续 两个交易日大幅下跌后强劲反弹，现货黄金开盘后迅速上涨，并冲回4900美元大关上方，欧美盘时段均 在4950美元上下震荡，盘中一度创下逾320美元的历史最大单日涨幅，最终收涨6.15%，创2008年11月 以来最大单日涨幅，报4945.74美元/盎司；现货白银盘中一度大涨超10%，并重回8 ...

尽管特朗普及其在美联储的盟友一直在呼吁进一步降息，但该央行内部始终存在更担心通胀顽固风险的 阵营。 里士满联储主席汤姆巴尔金(Tom Barkin)周二表示，去年的降息举措为劳动力市场提供了支撑，而目前 美联储官员的核心目标，是将通胀率拉回到2%的政策目标。 周三(2月4日)亚市盘中，现货黄金价格持续上涨，目前交投于5084.46美元/盎司附近，现货黄金价格在 最近的盘中交易中持续上涨，最终突破了5000美元的关键心理阻力位，这预示着金价将继续积极尝试收 复之前的损失。然而，金价随后触及了50日均线阻力位，这构成了短期内扩大涨幅的障碍。 美联储理事斯蒂芬米兰(Stephen Miran)周二在接受福克斯商业频道采访时继续为其唿吁今年大幅降息的 立场辩护。 米兰表示，当前美国经济中并未出现强劲的价格压力，这意味着目前处于限制性水平的利率，今年需要 再次下调。他重申，"我预计，今年全年的降息幅度大概率会超过1个百分点。" 走势偏向轻微上行，因为50期SMA的初步上升支持回调，价格走势在其上方构建。动能改善，MACD 保持正值，直方图扩大，而RSI保持在50以上，强化了恢复的立场；然而，头部的斐波那契阻力抑制了 跟 ...

里奇蒙联储主席巴尔金周二的表态进一步印证了这一点，他表示美联储的降息举措有助于维护就业市场 健康，同时生产率提升正帮助企业缓解成本压力，助力通胀回归2%目标。 周三(2月4日)亚洲时段，现货黄金价格延续反弹态势，截至发稿，现货黄金暂报5080.28美元/盎司，上 涨2.72%，最高触及5082.14美元/盎司，最低下探4908.40美元/盎司。黄金短暂下跌之后重回5000美元上 方，基本面上美伊紧张局势升温支撑避险需求，但美联储人事变动强化鹰派预期，对金价构成压制，因 此短期波动率并未有效降低之前，维持高位震荡为主。 另外，据NBC新闻报道，美国众议院周二通过了一项规模庞大的资金法案，以结束自周六开始的部分 政府停摆局面，该法案现将送交总统特朗普签署成为法律。据悉，投票结果是217票赞成，214票反对。 特朗普曾表示，他将"立即"签署该文件。这一事件暴露了国内政治的不稳定性。民主党人借机推动对特 朗普移民政策的限制，这可能引发更多分歧。 美联储政策的微调一直是黄金市场的重要风向标，而Warsh的提名无疑为这一领域注入了新的变量。尽 管市场普遍预期Warsh不会急于推动快速降息，但他对资产负债表的收缩态度可能导 ...

Group 1 - The main contract for styrene futures experienced a rapid increase, peaking at 7842.00 yuan, with a current price of 7743.00 yuan, reflecting a rise of 2.11% [1] Group 2 - According to Ruida Futures, the short-term EB2603 is expected to fluctuate with strong oil prices, while the domestic styrene supply is anticipated to recover from low levels as two major 90,000-ton units are expected to restart [2] - Galaxy Futures noted that some styrene units are scheduled to restart in February, indicating a return of supply, while the demand for styrene is expected to seasonally decline as the Spring Festival approaches [2] - The overall supply-demand balance for styrene in February is projected to shift from tight to loose, influenced by the seasonal decrease in demand for EPS, PS, and UPR [2]

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in international gold prices have been characterized by extreme volatility, with prices experiencing a "roller coaster" effect, dropping to $4,400 per ounce and then rebounding to $5,000 per ounce shortly after [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - On February 2, gold futures fell sharply to $4,400 per ounce, reflecting the market's vulnerability amid high volatility [2]. - The surge in gold prices since January has led to a historical peak in volatility, with a significant increase in trading activity among short-term bullish traders [2]. - The nomination of a hawkish Federal Reserve chair by Trump was identified as a trigger for the price drop, but the primary cause was attributed to forced liquidations and margin increases [2][3]. Group 2: Institutional Behavior - Major financial institutions, including JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs, have reduced their net long positions in gold from 35% to 22% since January 23, indicating a significant sell-off [2]. - Retail investors continued to buy at high prices, creating a scenario where institutions were "harvesting" profits while retail investors were left holding positions [2]. - Institutions sold off high-risk assets, including gold, to meet margin calls, further exacerbating price volatility [2]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Key support levels for gold prices are identified between $4,600 and $4,700 per ounce, which is crucial for maintaining market stability [4]. - If prices fall below this support range, further declines could target $4,400 to $4,500 per ounce, which is viewed as a strong support level by market participants [4]. - As the Chinese New Year approaches, physical demand for gold is expected to increase, potentially leading to a technical rebound if prices reach the identified support levels [4].

光大期货分析称，基本面来看镍矿、镍铁价格成交走强，或存在资源供给偏紧的担忧，边界成本支撑继 续抬升。不锈钢来看，二月春节因素影响，不锈钢周度库存累库，但供给端多有检修；新能源方面， MHP价格坚挺，硫酸镍成本支撑相对较强，但现货采销相对冷清，三元材料产量也同样预计环比走 弱。总体来看，阶段性需求环比转弱，但成本支撑依旧坚实，对价格来说预计仍有较强支撑，市场情绪 有所回暖，关注成本线附近轻仓试多机会。 混沌天成期货指出，前期镍供需核心逻辑是印尼方面传出镍矿石的生产目标预计将在2.5亿至2.6亿吨左 右这一预期引导，产量预期明显下降。印尼官员预计镍矿石产量较上年将下降10%至15%。镍供需格局 预期有显著好转。此外后续对钴等伴生资源收税，间接抬升镍成本。近期镍供应端端风险发酵相对有 限，昨日随着白银价格企稳，有色整体情绪回温，镍价小幅反弹。后续主要关注印尼政策的具体落地情 况，与其他地区镍矿复产意愿。风险主要来自印尼限矿政策力度不及预期，精炼镍现货库存压力以及宏 观降息周期预期反转。 2月4日，国内期市有色金属板块多数飘红。其中，沪镍期货主力合约开盘报135400.00元/吨，今日盘中 高位震荡运行；截至发稿，沪 ...

供给端，正信期货指出，上周国内碳酸锂产量环比减少648吨至2.16万吨。据SMM，受部分锂盐厂检修 影响，预计2月碳酸锂产量8.19万吨，环比减少16%。 2月4日，国内期市有色金属板块多数飘红。其中，碳酸锂期货盘中高位震荡运行，截至发稿主力合约报 148160.0元/吨，涨幅1.97%。 需求端，首创期货分析称，随着储能行业发展迅速，储能对碳酸锂需求仍有支撑。1月底国家发改委、 国家能源局发布《关于完善发电侧容量电价机制的通知》，《通知》首次明确容量电价机制，鼓励长时 储能的建设运营，该政策或利好储能需求，进一步影响碳酸锂价格。 展望后市，东海期货表示，社会库存持续去库，强现实维持，但春节前备货需求有较大程度释放，对节 前行情支撑减弱。预计碳酸锂在高位震荡，耐心等待企稳后逢低布局。 库存端，据光大期货介绍，周度碳酸锂社会库存环比减1414吨至107482吨，其中下游环比增加3007吨至 40599吨，其他环节减少3590吨至47880吨，上游环比减少831吨至19903吨。 ...

摘要今日周三(2月4日)亚盘时段，伦敦金最新报价为1131.77元/克，较前一交易日上涨28.69元，涨幅 2.60%，日内呈现高位震荡走势。当日开盘价报1102.94元/克，盘中最高触及1134.28元/克，最低下探至 1094.88元/克。 今日周三(2月4日)亚盘时段，伦敦金最新报价为1131.77元/克，较前一交易日上涨28.69元，涨幅2.60%， 日内呈现高位震荡走势。当日开盘价报1102.94元/克，盘中最高触及1134.28元/克，最低下探至1094.88 元/克。 【要闻速递】 若沃什领导的美联储继续缩表，康斯坦建议以国债抵押隔夜回购利率替代联邦基金利率作为关键短期基 准(效仿达拉斯联储主席洛根去年9月提议)，这需美联储更积极干预以平抑波动。此举可使资产负债表 更灵活，但操作上更趋干预主义。他还认为，应引导交易对手更多使用常备回购便利(SRF)——银行可 用国债等抵押向央行借入现金。尽管直接借款对银行仍有"污名"，但若能常态化使用，或成"缩表最有 效手段"，并与银行更愿持有国债、降低融资风险相契合。 【最新伦敦金行情解析】 瑞穗证券美国公司指出，特朗普提名的美联储主席人选凯文.沃什一贯主张缩 ...

Group 1 - The glass futures market is showing a strong upward trend, with the main contract opening at 1085.00 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 1120.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a price increase of 3.82% [1] - Market sentiment is primarily loose, with short-term price increases influenced by trading emotions and hedging activities, but there is a caution to return to fundamental risks [2] - The overall trading activity is declining as downstream processing plants approach the end of their operations before the Spring Festival, leading to a stable supply and limited demand growth [2] Group 2 - The glass market is expected to continue its oscillating trend in the short term, with the main contract price range projected between 1025-1125 CNY/ton [2] - Recent news of cold repairs from various enterprises has led to a price rebound, but the overall market lacks strong driving factors, resulting in a prevalent wait-and-see sentiment [2] - Manufacturers are primarily adopting strategies of steady pricing and inventory reduction, with limited willingness to adjust prices significantly [2]

Core Viewpoint - The latest gold futures prices in New York indicate a significant increase, with the current price reaching 5096.20 USD per ounce, reflecting a notable upward trend in the market [2]. Group 1: Price Information - The latest price for gold futures is 5096.20 USD per ounce, which is an increase from the previous closing price of 4970.50 USD per ounce [2]. - The opening price for today was 4966.10 USD per ounce, and the highest price reached during the trading session was 5097.90 USD per ounce, while the lowest was 4930.40 USD per ounce [2].