华联期货：鸡蛋主力合约或延续区间宽幅震荡 短期来看，蛋鸡生产成本及养殖环节的惜售心理对蛋价形成底部支撑，市场交投氛围好转，各环节库存 持续消化，现货回暖。前期蛋价走势依旧不及预期，叠加行业持续亏损，老鸡淘汰加速，加之补栏积极 性不足，在产蛋鸡存栏量及新开产量或继续下降，不过中期鸡蛋供应压力并未缓解，主力合约或延续区 间宽幅震荡，压力位参考3100~3150，期权方面，可轻仓买入远月合约的看涨期权。 建信期货：鸡蛋近月合约低位震荡小幅偏强 1月15日盘中，鸡蛋期货主力合约遭遇一波急速上涨，最高上探至3085.00元。截止发稿，鸡蛋主力合约 报3067.00元，涨幅2.27%。 鸡蛋期货主力涨超2%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 机构 核心观点 华联期货 鸡蛋主力合约或延续区间宽幅震荡 建信期货 鸡蛋近月合约低位震荡小幅偏强 格林大华期货 短期蛋价仍有上涨预期 期货方面，本周近月合约低位震荡小幅偏强，远月合约有一定下跌，近月走势偏强还是比较好理解的， 主要也是现货的拉动作用，而远月则是由于前期过早打入存栏拐点的预期，当前蛋价上涨又对补栏持续 减少的预期有所动摇，当前有一定回调。未来操作层面上，02、03 ...

Group 1 - The main contract for 20 rubber futures experienced a sharp decline, reaching a low of 12,715.00 yuan, with a current price of 12,765.00 yuan, reflecting a drop of 2.18% [1] Group 2 - Zhongcai Futures indicates that recent rubber prices are primarily influenced by macroeconomic factors, showing a wide fluctuation after breaking out of a converging range. There may still be production pressure in January, with domestic inventory levels potentially exceeding last year's high points. However, a long-term supply-demand gap may gradually manifest during this year's destocking cycle, suggesting that rubber is suitable for low long positions and spread trading under favorable macro conditions [2] - Guangzhou Futures notes that while supply from Southeast Asia is increasing during the high production season, cooler temperatures in northeastern Thailand may lead to a temporary halt in production. The inventory accumulation of natural rubber is slowing down, but the finished product inventory for semi-steel tires remains high, indicating limited downside potential for rubber prices [2]

Group 1 - Silver futures are currently trading above 21,958, with a recent report indicating a price of 22,201 per kilogram, down 0.40% from the opening price of 23,488 per kilogram, and a daily high of 23,688 per kilogram and a low of 21,580 per kilogram, suggesting a short-term bullish trend in silver futures [1] - The Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari noted that the overall economy appears resilient, with lower-than-expected tariff transmission effects, while inflation remains high but is moving in the right direction [2] - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicated that economic activity in most regions of the U.S. has been recovering at a "slight to moderate pace" since mid-November, marking an improvement compared to previous reporting periods [2] Group 2 - November retail sales in the U.S. exceeded expectations, reaching $735.9 billion with a growth of 0.6%, following a contraction of 0.1% in October, surpassing the market's anticipated 0.4% increase [2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for November showed strong performance, with both overall and core indicators increasing by 3% year-on-year [2] - Analysts believe that industrial demand for silver is clearly growing in sectors such as photovoltaics, electric vehicles, and AI data centers, while supply is constrained by structural limitations and export controls, indicating a likely tight balance in the market and continued upward momentum for silver prices [2]

在印尼，央行自身也面临独立性方面的压力。2024年底，该国反腐败机构突击搜查了央行。该案件目前 仍在进行中，使印尼央行持续受到公众和政治层面的密切关注。 印尼央行加入全球多家央行的行列，公开表示支持美联储主席鲍威尔，成为东南亚首个采取此举的货币 管理机构。 印尼央行行长Perry Warjiyo于周四被列入一份在线支持声明的签署者名单。但该行尚未对此做出回应。 对鲍威尔的公开支持对一些央行而言在政治层面颇为棘手。新西兰外交部长批评了该国央行行长签署声 明的行为，称央行不应涉足美国内政。 今日周四(1月15日)欧盘时段，纸白银目前交投于19.672一线上方，截至发稿，纸白银暂报19.964元/克， 下跌2.92%，最高触及20.948元/克，最低下探19.369元/克，目前来看，纸白银盘内短线偏向看涨走势。 【要闻速递】 【最新纸白银行情解析】 日图来看，纸白银价格开盘反弹至高位后再次回调，目前从低位反弹，一小时布林带向下，显现下跌风 险，一小时MACD负直方图缩短，显示下跌动能减弱，但处于零线下方，警惕再次下跌，DMI也显示空 头占据上风，纸白银走势下方关注18.50-19.50支撑，上方关注20.50-21 ...

白银价格的大幅震荡，凸显出其背后的"挤仓"风险正在发酵，市场波动性显着放大。 目前伦敦与美国白银市场的挤仓风险依然处于高位。其核心矛盾在于，未平仓合约所对应的索取权规模 高达约5.9亿盎司，而可用于实物交割的库存不足5000万盎司，覆盖率仅约7%。 今日周四(1月15日)亚盘时段，伦敦银目前交投于88.12一线下方，今日开盘于93.57美元/盎司，截至发 稿，伦敦银暂报87.28美元/盎司，下跌6.33%，最高触及93.57美元/盎司，最低下探86.37美元/盎司，目 前来看，伦敦银盘内短线偏向震荡走势。 【要闻速递】 此外，由于银价涨势持续超过黄金，金银比跌破50大关，为2012年3月以来首次。该比值的长期均值在 60左右，历史经验表明，金银比跌破50尤其是跌至40及下方，势必会引起重视，通常意味着要么黄金上 涨补上来，要么白银被拉下来。 伦敦银价格在早盘中交易中下跌，此前92.35美元阻力位的稳定，以收回之前上涨的收益，试图获得可 能帮助其恢复和回升的多头动能，试图获得可能助其恢复和再次上涨的多头动能，试图将超买状态抛售 到相对强弱指标上，同时其在EMA50上方交易所代表的动态支撑持续存在，强化了价格反弹 ...

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals is mostly in the red, with Shanghai tin futures showing a strong performance, reaching a high of 443,380.00 CNY/ton and a low of 420,000.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a price increase of approximately 6.88% [1] - The current trend for Shanghai tin is characterized by a volatile upward movement, with market sentiment driven by emotional trading rather than fundamental changes [2] - Concerns over supply disruptions from the mining sector, combined with increased demand driven by the AI wave, have contributed to the recent price surge in tin [2] Group 2 - The high tin prices are suppressing purchasing intentions among downstream enterprises, leading to a cautious approach where most companies are opting to wait and see rather than engage in significant procurement [2] - The slow recovery of tin production in Myanmar has not significantly improved the tight supply situation, maintaining high speculative interest in the market [2] - The market has experienced a significant price increase of 35.19% within the month, raising concerns about potential price corrections due to accumulated risks [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the upward trend in nickel prices due to geopolitical tensions and supply constraints, with the main contract for nickel futures reported at 144,410.00 yuan/ton, reflecting a 2.42% increase [1] Group 2 - On the macro level, the article notes a significant trend of de-globalization and frequent geopolitical conflicts, leading to a general increase in "strategic reserve" metals [1] Group 3 - In terms of industry specifics, Indonesia has drastically reduced its nickel ore production target for 2026 by approximately 34%, and 50 nickel mines are facing potential fines for illegal land use [1] Group 4 - Regarding demand, the announcement from two departments to gradually lower and eliminate the VAT refund for battery product exports is expected to positively impact nickel demand in the new energy sector [1] Group 5 - Looking ahead, the article indicates that strong policy expectations from Indonesia are driving prices upward, with a projected quota of 260 million tons for 2026 against an estimated demand of over 320 million tons, suggesting a strong expectation of overall nickel supply shortage [1]

从昨日走势看：目前上方压制在4639-41一线，其次是4627-32一线；最后是4617-18附近。 避险黄金价格也走弱，部分反映出地缘政治担忧的缓解。美国总统唐纳德.特朗普表示，有报导称与伊 朗镇压相关的杀戮正在减弱，并且没有计划进行大规模处决，尽管他并未排除潜在的美国军事行动，并 指出华盛顿将继续监测事态发展，路透社报导。 对包括黄金在内的贵金属的避险需求可能会在对美联储独立性的新担忧中进一步上升。美联储主席杰罗 姆.鲍威尔批评特朗普政府对他的传票决定，称这相当于对美联储施加压力以实施更宽松的货币政策。 特朗普在周三表示，尽管司法部对美联储主席的刑事调查，他没有计划解雇鲍威尔，但"现在说他最终 会做什么还为时尚早。" 从技术面来看，昨日开盘价格从4589附近开始一路上行至4639.5一线回落4618附近，之后价格再度上涨 至4640附近维持在4627-4640区间来回震荡；美盘价格快速下跌至4599一线后反弹4624附近进行二次下 探4601附近反弹二次冲高4642一线；之后价格再度4618附近并收盘于4626一线。 周四(1月15日)亚市盘中，现货黄金价格震荡下跌，目前交投于4589.63美元/盎司附近 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the lithium carbonate market is experiencing a downward trend, with prices fluctuating and showing weakness in performance [1][2] - The main contract for lithium carbonate futures opened at 163,840.0 yuan/ton, with a maximum of 165,000.0 yuan and a minimum of 156,180.0 yuan, reflecting a decline of 4.16% [1] - Market sentiment has diverged recently, influenced by policy benefits and expectations for energy storage demand, but profit-taking and weak fundamentals have led to a market adjustment phase [2] Group 2 - Demand for energy storage batteries has increased by 0.99% month-on-month, but there is a notable decline in the production of power batteries as the market enters a low season [2] - Inventory pressure is becoming evident, with an expected accumulation of over 5,000 tons in January [2] - Despite short-term supply and demand weakening, medium-term support is anticipated from policy tightening, high growth in energy storage demand, and increased processing fees [2] Group 3 - The current high volatility of lithium carbonate futures indicates significant market trading risks, and the sustainability of continued price increases remains uncertain [3] - There is a strong demand for spot purchases of lithium carbonate ahead of the Spring Festival, suggesting that the industry may exhibit "not dull in the off-season" characteristics [3] - Investors are advised to gradually realize profits in the short term and wait for market risks to be fully released before considering low-price entry opportunities [3]

摘要今日周四(1月15日)亚市时段，伦敦金震荡下行，一度下跌0.92%至4583美元/盎司，但仍有逢低买 盘提供支撑，目前回升至4610美元附近，日内跌幅约0.3%。美国总统唐纳德.特朗普断言，阻碍潜在和 平协议达成的主要是乌克兰，而非俄罗斯。与欧洲盟友的立场截然不同，特朗普暗示莫斯科已准备好结 束冲突，而基辅方面却仍持犹豫态度。短期看，特朗普立场变动降低了冲突升级风险，对黄金构成利 空。 今日周四(1月15日)亚市时段，伦敦金震荡下行，一度下跌0.92%至4583美元/盎司，但仍有逢低买盘提 供支撑，目前回升至4610美元附近，日内跌幅约0.3%。美国总统唐纳德.特朗普断言，阻碍潜在和平协 议达成的主要是乌克兰，而非俄罗斯。与欧洲盟友的立场截然不同，特朗普暗示莫斯科已准备好结束冲 突，而基辅方面却仍持犹豫态度。短期看，特朗普立场变动降低了冲突升级风险，对黄金构成利空。 【要闻速递】 周三，美国总统特朗普表示，俄罗斯总统普京已准备好结束持续近四年的俄乌冲突，并指责乌克兰总统 泽连斯基在达成协议上犹豫不决。特朗普称"普京已准备好达成协议"，而"乌克兰不太准备好"，当被问 及谈判停滞原因时，他仅以"泽连斯基"回应 ...