本周，全球基准的布伦特原油价格一度暴跌至每桶60美元以下，投资者正试图理清美国总统特朗普推动结束俄乌冲突、逼迫委内瑞拉总统尼 古拉斯·马杜罗（Nicolas Maduro）下台这两件事的影响。 然而，未来数月油价的真正驱动因素可能远比这平淡得多：全球原油供应激增。 在俄乌冲突全面爆发近四年后，市场对和平协议达成的乐观情绪日益升温。受此影响，布伦特原油跌至2021年初以来的最低水平。 周三，特朗普在其"真实社交"（Truth Social）平台发文称，随着美国加大对马杜罗的施压，他已下令封锁所有进出委内瑞拉的受制裁油轮， 油价随后反弹约2%。 海上原油库存飙升 石油市场是地缘政治压力的可靠晴雨表，因此油价对各类事件做出反应并不令人意外。但无论是俄乌和平协议还是美国全面封锁委内瑞拉油 轮，对实际原油供应的影响都可能十分有限。 相反，未来数月油价的真正决定因素可能是一个单一数据点：据克普勒（Kpler）数据显示，全球"海上原油"（即储存在海上的原油）储量达 13亿桶。 这一储量创下2020年4月以来的最高水平（当时新冠疫情封锁导致石油消费暴跌），较8月水平高出约30%。 海上原油库存激增，部分原因是对俄罗斯的制裁收 ...

期货下午茶·每日复盘 2025年12月19日 星期五 黑色 大商所调整焦煤唐山、天津交割库升贴水;Mysteel数据：日均铁水产量 同比减少2.86万吨，港口铁矿库存环比增加114万吨。 | 市场情绪仪表盘 ● 弱势 强势 ● ● 震荡 ® 震荡偏强 锂电化工领涨 | 油脂玻璃回调 | 今日关键词 7 碳酸锂两连阳 8 PTA巨量增仓 盘 马士基返红海 | ▽ 今日焦点 (多头明星) 碳酸锂2605 +3.86% GFEX Ic2605 Home Holly Home 光大期货:采矿证的注销更多是锂矿合规性开采问题的后续,并非对锂资源供给 的收缩。从近期市场情况来看,周度社会库存延续去化,库存周转天数周环比下 降0.5天至26.5天，近期本身海外资源扰动,视下窝矿山复产预期亦有转弱,导致 预期的利空因素并未如期体现。后续来看,如果江西锂矿项目复产叠加季节性淡 季因素，可能会导致去库速度放缓或至累库，届时价格仍有回调概率,但在强需 求预期下,下游备货意愿或也将表现相对较强,总体价格表现或易涨难跌,关注 复产节奏、排产环降幅度以及明年强需求是否能够得到验证。 | 今日热点资讯 航运 马士基一艘船舶近两年来首次穿越 ...

周四，低于预期的11月通胀数据公布后，美国总统特朗普倍感"沉冤昭雪"。这一数据强化了他在抑制物 价方面取得进展的说法——物价问题曾是他最棘手的政治包袱。 10月消费者价格指数（CPI）报告被完全取消。周四公布的11月数据，依赖于当月下旬收集的信息—— 而这段时间恰逢"黑色星期五"促销，物价被人为压低。因此，此次发布的数据中存在不完整条目和估算 数据。 11月份，主要CPI报告中因数据不足而无法发布的系列数量从9月份的17个跃升至45个。 这一事件进一步加剧了美国主要经济机构核心层面的动荡感：美联储内部分歧严重、一系列官方报告中 断、进口关税大幅波动，以及特朗普对"已解决国家可负担性危机"提出毫无根据的主张。 笼罩在这个全球最大经济体上空的阴霾，正影响着从商业、投资到政府政策的方方面面决策。 今年8月，在一份平淡的就业报告发布后，特朗普解雇了麦肯塔弗，导致这家编制核心通胀和劳动力数 据的机构陷入临时负责人主导的状态。 该机构还长期受资金短缺困扰，导致人员流失严重，并被迫缩减CPI数据收集工作——而CPI数据支撑 着价值数万亿美元的金融工具以及对美国老年人的社会保障支付。 但华尔街对美国劳工统计局（BLS）公布的 ...

日本央行称，经济已温和复苏，尽管仍存在一些疲软迹象。工资和通胀很可能继续温和同步上升。 将从可持续、稳定实现2%通胀目标的角度出发，适时实施货币政策。即使在利率变动后，货币环境依 然宽松，支持经济。 政策声明全文 货币市场操作指引变化 SHMET 网讯：周五，日本央行将基准利率从0.5%上调至0.75%，符合市场预期。利率水平创30年 来新高，这也是2025年1月以后，日本央行11个月来再次进行加息。日本央行一致通过政策决议。 根据声明，日本央行预计实际利率将维持在显著低位，"即使在加息之后，实际利率仍处于深度负 值区间"。若经济和物价走势与预测一致，并随着经济和物价的改善，将继续上调政策利率。 在今日召开的货币政策会议上，日本央行政策委员会以全票通过，决定将会议间隔期的货币市场操 作指引设定如下： 日本央行将引导无担保隔夜拆借利率维持在约0.75%的水平。 根据货币市场操作指引的调整，日本央行以全票通过，决定调整其相关措施所适用的利率。 （1）补充性存款便利适用利率 补充性存款便利适用的利率（即金融机构在日本央行持有的往来账户余额中，扣除法定准备金后的 部分所适用的利率）为0.75%。 （2）基本贷款利率 ...

Group 1 - Bill Ackman's Howard Hughes is set to acquire Bermuda-based insurance company Vantage Risk for $2.1 billion, aiming to create a "modern-day Berkshire Hathaway" [1] - The acquisition will be financed through a combination of cash and up to $1 billion in stock investment from Ackman's hedge fund, Pershing Square, which is the largest shareholder of Howard Hughes [1] - Ackman plans to transform Howard Hughes from a real estate company into a diversified holding company, similar to Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway, by acquiring controlling stakes in operating companies [1] Group 2 - The acquisition of Vantage Risk marks a milestone in Howard Hughes' transition to a diversified holding company, with Pershing Square managing Vantage Risk's assets [2] - Berkshire Hathaway pioneered the use of "float" from insurance premiums as a low-cost funding source for diversified investments, a strategy that is becoming increasingly competitive as activist investors and private equity firms enter the space [2] - Since 2020, private equity giants like Apollo Global and KKR have fully acquired life insurance subsidiaries to leverage premiums for funding large investment projects [2] Group 3 - Some private equity firms favor the life insurance sector due to its long liability duration, which aligns well with less liquid private investment projects [3] - Vantage Risk specializes in property and casualty insurance, focusing on underwriting specific risks such as litigation, political violence, and cyber risks [3]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has returned to a quantitative easing (QE) approach, with a recent decision to purchase approximately $40 billion in short-term Treasury bills and potentially similar amounts monthly until at least April [1][2] - The Fed's interest rate cuts, totaling 1.75 percentage points since September 2024, are part of a broader strategy to manage its balance sheet and respond to liquidity needs in the banking sector [1][3] - The new "ample reserves regime" has complex implications, as high reserve balances can paradoxically hinder banks from lending to the public and affect Treasury trading [2][3] Group 2 - Concerns have arisen regarding the Fed's control over its balance sheet, as the current system allows banks to dictate the demand for reserves, potentially leading to instability in the overnight lending market [3][4] - The Fed's recent actions, framed as technical adjustments, indicate a shift back to QE despite claims of maintaining an anti-inflation stance, suggesting a need for a higher balance sheet relative to the economy [3][4] - Kevin Warsh, a candidate for the Fed chair position, is seen as eager to abandon the current ample reserves system, indicating potential for significant reform in the future [4]

Group 1 - French President Macron emphasizes the need for Europe to engage directly with Russian leaders as the US pushes for peace negotiations [1] - Macron suggests that Europe must either achieve a lasting peace in current negotiations or find a way to re-engage in dialogue with Russia, indicating that talking to Putin could be beneficial [1] - US President Trump is leading a new round of peace efforts, with a specific security guarantee proposal aimed at preventing further Russian aggression [1] Group 2 - Trump believes that negotiations to end the Ukraine conflict are nearing progress, with his envoys planning to meet with Russian representatives [1] - A recent poll indicates that few Ukrainians are willing to make territorial concessions, which remain a key condition for Russia to end the war [1] - The EU has agreed to provide €90 billion (approximately $106 billion) in loans to Ukraine over the next two years, marking a significant shift from previous funding strategies [2]

Core Insights - The Trump Media and Technology Group (DJT) is pursuing a merger with TAE Technologies, valuing the deal at $6 billion, marking a significant move into mainstream finance and the U.S. economy since Trump's return to the political spotlight [1] - The merger aims to capitalize on the growing demand for electricity driven by AI advancements, positioning the company in a speculative yet potentially lucrative market [1] - TAE Technologies is a well-established player in the commercial nuclear fusion sector, with notable backers including Alphabet, Chevron, and Goldman Sachs [2] Company Overview - TAE Technologies has a long history in the nuclear fusion field and is recognized as one of the most prominent companies in this emerging sector [2] - The company has a strong leadership team, including former U.S. Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz and seasoned investor Michael Schwab, who will play a key role post-merger [2] - The merger will bring significant capital to TAE, which is essential for the development of nuclear fusion technology, a venture that requires billions in investment [3] Financial Aspects - Trump Media has reported operational losses in the hundreds of millions, but its stock surged over 40% following the merger announcement, despite a 56% decline year-to-date [3] - The merger is expected to create the first publicly traded nuclear fusion company in the U.S., with aspirations to achieve power generation by 2031 [3] Industry Context - Interest in nuclear fusion technology has surged, with over $7.1 billion raised by 50 startups in the sector as of July [4] - Venture capital investment in nuclear fusion has increased significantly, with $3.3 billion injected through 34 deals in Q3, a nearly 600% rise compared to the previous year [5] - The U.S. Department of Energy has announced a national strategy to accelerate nuclear fusion development, indicating strong governmental support for the sector [5]

德意志银行在上周进行的一项调查，识别了投资者对2026年最为担忧的风险。在440位资产经理的反馈 中，最令人意外的或许不是他们担心的事，而是他们不担心的事。 尽管近几年才发生过且严重冲击金融市场，但投资者并不担忧包括全球大流行病、地缘政治爆发、全球贸 易战、法国爆发重大政治或金融危机等风险。 德意志银行的年度民调由其全球经济与专题研究主管Jim Reid主持，结果非常清晰地表明了一点："AI/科 技泡沫风险压倒了一切"。事实上，Reid进一步指出，"在对来年最大风险的押注中，我们从未见过如此遥 遥领先的选项。" 2026年市场面临的最大风险调查结果 超过半数的受访者将其列为2026年的最大担忧，紧随其后的是担心新任美联储主席是否会激进降息并引发 市场动荡，或者私募资本领域是否正在酝酿危机，后两者的得票率几乎相当。 债券收益率升幅超过预期以及各国央行因粘性通胀而意外加息分别吸引了21%和15%的投票，但这或许可 以被解读为本质上是同一种风险，两者相加的权重会更加引人注目。 Reid提出了一个有趣的观点，尽管对泡沫风险的感知肯定处于高位，但它低于9月份的水平，也低于2021 年疫情后流动性泛滥带动万物普涨时期的水 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential candidates to succeed Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, highlighting their differing views on interest rate policies and the management of the Fed's balance sheet, while all agree on the need for lower interest rates and the role of artificial intelligence in boosting economic productivity. Candidate Summaries Hassett - Hassett, aged 63, holds a PhD in economics and has a history with the Federal Reserve and the American Enterprise Institute, focusing on tax policy and supply-side economics [1] - He believes there is significant room for interest rate cuts, suggesting potential GDP growth could exceed 4% due to productivity and capital stock growth [2] - Hassett has not detailed his views on the Fed's balance sheet but has called for an independent review of the entire institution, citing concerns over perceived partisan bias [2] Waller - Waller, aged 66, is the most politically distant candidate, with a background in academia and a history as a research director at the St. Louis Fed [3] - He has influenced monetary policy discussions, advocating for interest rate cuts based on weak labor market evidence, and believes there is still room to lower rates by 50 to 100 basis points [4] - Waller does not view the Fed as constrained by partisan issues and has expressed concerns about the Fed's focus on social issues [4] Walsh - Walsh, aged 55, is a lawyer and former Fed governor, known for his critical stance on the Fed's policies and has called for a "regime change" [5] - He advocates for significant interest rate reductions to make long-term mortgages more affordable, linking low rates to a potential productivity revolution [5] - Walsh criticizes the Fed's balance sheet as indicative of excessive intervention in the economy and has raised concerns about the Fed's involvement in politically charged issues like climate change [5]