Group 1 - WTI crude oil is testing both the 50-day moving average and the downward trend line of a descending wedge pattern, indicating a potential breakout [1] - Momentum indicators such as MACD and RSI are showing bullish divergence, suggesting that selling pressure is gradually weakening [1] - A confirmed breakout above the wedge's upper boundary could trigger short covering and new long positions, shifting market sentiment back to bullish [1] Group 2 - Gold mining stocks have significantly outperformed all sectors of the S&P 500 this year, reflecting typical stagflation market behavior [3] - ANZ Bank has raised its year-end gold price forecast to $3,800 per ounce from $3,600, with expectations for gold to reach nearly $4,000 per ounce by June 2026 [6] - The year-end target price for silver has also been increased to $44.7 per ounce [6] Group 3 - The CNN Fear and Greed Index is signaling a warning, with a bearish head and shoulders pattern forming, indicating potential market sentiment deterioration [8] - The neckline of this pattern is at the critical level of 50, and a breakdown could lead to increased risks for the overall market [8] Group 4 - There is an expectation for a rapid decline in gold prices in the days leading up to the FOMC decision, with specific projected pathways outlined [11]

Market Overview - The futures market shows a bullish sentiment with 51 contracts rising and 27 contracts falling, indicating increased trading activity in upward-moving varieties [2] - The top gainers include 中证2509 (+3.44%), 中证1000 2509 (+2.94%), and 沪深2509 (+2.64%), reflecting strong demand in these sectors [5] - The largest capital inflows were seen in 沪深300 2509 (1.584 billion), 中证500 2509 (1.533 billion), and 上证50 2509 (680 million), suggesting significant interest from major funds [8] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 3.17% compared to the previous month, impacting supply levels [12] - The total inventory of float glass in China decreased by 2.33%, indicating improved demand and market conditions in most regions except for 华南 and 西南 [13] - The rebar steel production has seen a decline for two consecutive weeks, with a notable increase in social inventory, suggesting a potential oversupply situation [15] Commodity Specific Insights - Industrial silicon futures are stabilizing with a short-term upward trend, driven by market dynamics and potential policy changes affecting supply [22] - Coking coal futures are experiencing limited rebound potential due to ongoing supply-demand imbalances and market sentiment [23] - The European shipping index has dropped significantly by 5.28%, attributed to seasonal demand fluctuations and competitive pricing pressures [25] Future Outlook - Upcoming data releases include Brazil's soybean and corn production figures, which are expected to show record highs, and the U.S. CPI data that may influence market expectations [18][19] - The Chinese Ministry of Agriculture is set to release its monthly supply and demand report, which may further impact agricultural commodity prices [20]

尽管这已促使几位知名人士呼吁降息，但也有少数其他人，如经济学家彼得·希夫（Peter Schiff），警告 称降息可能"只会损害劳动力市场"，理由是美元走弱、消费价格上涨以及长期利率可能上升。 根据芝加哥商品交易所集团的"美联储利率工具"，目前市场预计美联储9月份降息25个基点的可能性为 93.7%，同时10月份再次降息的可能性为76%。 白宫方面，早些时候的就业数据修正再度引爆降息呼声。"正如劳工统计局辜负美国民众，'为时已 晚'的杰罗姆·鲍威尔同样如此——他已毫无借口可言，必须立即降息，"白宫新闻秘书卡洛琳·莱维特 （Karoline Leavitt）在声明中表示。 尽管市场预计美联储将降息25个基点，但Zervos表示，进行更大幅度降息的理由是明确的。他说， 有"非常有说服力的理由"支持降息75个基点，但他不认为这能在政治上获得通过。"我认为这甚至不会 被提上议程。" Zervos说，美联储必须愿意根据不断变化的数据来改变路线。"我认为你可以提出一个论点，一个激进 的论点，那就是时候该彻底逆转，并说，'嘿，我们犯了一些错误'，"但他不认为美联储会这样做。 就业数据修正促使美联储降息 本周早些时候，美国劳 ...

Core Viewpoint - Vietnam plans to establish an online gold trading platform and allow gold imports for the first time in a decade, aiming to stabilize rapidly rising domestic gold prices and stimulate economic growth [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Background - Vietnam is focused on maintaining macroeconomic stability as one of Southeast Asia's fastest-growing economies, with concerns about rapid credit expansion potentially leading to asset price bubbles [2]. - Gold is a popular investment choice in Vietnam, viewed as a wealth preservation tool, making the stabilization of domestic gold prices a key objective for the central bank [2]. - Domestic gold prices have surged by 60% this year, remaining approximately 23% higher than international market prices as of Thursday [2]. Group 2: Potential Trade-offs - Expanding gold imports may help cool domestic gold prices and reduce the price gap with international markets, but it could also exert pressure on the exchange rate [3]. - Increased gold imports will require the use of US dollars, leading to greater outflows of the currency [3]. - The recent decree from the central bank will end its monopoly on gold bar production, aiming to enhance supply channels and market competitiveness [3]. Group 3: Regulatory Measures - The central bank will strengthen oversight of gold trading companies to prevent money laundering, speculation, smuggling, and illegal trading activities [4]. - Legal actions have been initiated against the former CEO of Saigon Jewellery, a contractor for gold bar production, for corruption and abuse of power [4].

经济学家们对日本央行年底利率的预测中值为0.75%，与上个月的调查持平。金融市场定价该央行年底 前加息的可能性超过50%。 日本央行副行长冰见野良三上周表示，该行应继续提高利率，但警告称全球经济不确定性仍然很高，暗 示其并不急于提高仍然很低的借贷成本。 音频由扣子空间生成 路透社的一项调查显示，多数经济学家认为，日本央行将在10-12月，即第四季度将其关键利率至少上 调25个基点，尽管这一比例已从一个月前的近三分之二有所下降。 在9月2日-9日的调查中，回答了一个额外问题的分析师中有93%表示，这（美联储降息）不会推迟日本 央行推行略微收紧的货币政策。 在接受调查的68位经济学家中，除了三位之外，所有人都预测日本央行在即将到来的9月18-19日政策会 议上不会改变利率，美联储则将于9月16-17日召开会议。 然而，66人中有55%（即36人）预计，该央行将在下个季度将借贷成本从0.50%至少提高到0.75%，这一 比例低于上个月调查的63%，但与7月份的54%持平。 伊藤忠经济研究所首席经济学家Atsushi Takeda说，"鉴于日元加速贬值和资产泡沫的风险，日本央行可 能会希望调整其当前的货币宽松立场。如 ...

疲软的就业数据与温和的生产者价格数据（PPI），让交易员认定美联储在9月16日至17日的会议上必然降息25个基 点，且年底前可能再跟进两次同等幅度的降息。 债券交易员正严阵以待一份高风险的美国通胀报告，该报告可能打乱他们的押注：即美联储本月起将开启一轮大幅 降息，并持续至2026年。 但除此之外，市场对经济风险平衡的判断已发生转变。目前的仓位布局显示，交易员认为美联储最终会将利率降 至"中性水平"以下，通过政策刺激增长以规避衰退。 这一转变堪称"巨变"：过去一年的大部分时间里，由于通胀表现顽固，交易员一直不敢押注如此大规模的宽松。在 当前格局下，周四发布的消费者价格指数（CPI）报告受到的关注度大幅提升。根据经济学家的共识预期，该报告预 计将显示核心CPI同比涨幅仍远高于美联储目标。 对美联储的降息押注已经推动美债在过去一个月反弹，其中美国2年期国债收益率跌至4月以来最低，但眼下的风险 是投资者可能已过度乐观。 "债市前端（短期债券）的定价反映的是经济疲软预期，而非对通胀的关注，"Columbia Threadneedle总回报债券基金 投资组合经理埃德·阿勒侯赛尼（Ed Al-Hussainy）表示，"若市 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain interest rates unchanged, with various banks providing insights on potential future actions and economic conditions affecting this decision [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11]. Group 1: Interest Rate Expectations - Several banks, including Scotiabank and HSBC, anticipate that the ECB will keep interest rates steady, with a cautious approach towards any future rate cuts [1][2]. - Bank of America suggests that ECB President Lagarde will mention the US-EU trade agreement while emphasizing flexibility without committing to future actions [3]. - Societe Generale predicts that the next rate cut may occur in the first quarter of next year, influenced by weakening inflation and increasing negative impacts from tariffs [4]. - UBS believes that the rate cut cycle may have ended due to large-scale fiscal stimulus measures being introduced in the EU, which are expected to support the economy starting next year [6]. - Danske Bank concludes that the easing cycle is likely over, with rates expected to remain unchanged until the end of next year due to unexpected growth and fiscal measures [7]. Group 2: Economic Conditions and ECB's Position - Monex Group indicates that if Lagarde officially announces victory over inflation and signals the end of the current easing cycle, the euro may appreciate [8]. - French Foreign Trade Bank notes that a final rate cut of 25 basis points in December is possible, contingent on a more severe slowdown in the labor market than anticipated [9]. - Berenberg Bank highlights that the market is focused on how the ECB will respond to political turmoil in France, although Lagarde is likely to remain silent on this matter [10]. - ING suggests that the current rationale for the ECB's inaction is strong, but the market may be underestimating the possibility of another rate cut this year [11].

Core Viewpoint - Kamala Harris criticizes the decision-making process regarding Joe Biden's potential re-election, deeming it reckless and overly reliant on personal ambition rather than a collective decision [1]. Group 1: Harris's Reflections on Biden's Decision - Harris expresses that the decision for Biden to run again should not have been made solely by him and Jill Biden, highlighting the high stakes involved [1]. - She questions whether the decision was made for the sake of appearances or out of recklessness, ultimately leaning towards the latter [1]. - Harris emphasizes that such choices should transcend personal ego and ambition, advocating for a more holistic approach to decision-making [1]. Group 2: Harris's Loyalty and Critique - After losing the Democratic nomination in 2020, Harris was selected as Biden's running mate, becoming the first female Vice President in U.S. history [3]. - She reflects on her past criticisms of Biden during the 2019 debates, noting that she felt compelled to repeatedly prove her loyalty to him afterward [3]. - Harris contemplates whether she should have encouraged Biden to step aside, acknowledging the potential perception of her suggestion as disloyalty [3]. Group 3: Evaluation of Biden's Capabilities - Despite questioning Biden's decision to run again, Harris defends his intelligence and capability to fulfill presidential duties, asserting that his knowledge and empathy surpass those of Donald Trump [3]. - She acknowledges that Biden's age has become a concern, noting signs of fatigue and errors in his physical and verbal expressions [3]. - Concerns regarding Biden's age and suitability for office have been prevalent since the 2020 campaign, peaking after poor debate performances against Trump [3]. Group 4: Internal Conflicts within the Biden Administration - Harris describes conflicts with Biden's team, indicating that they often undermined her, particularly when she faced Republican attacks [4]. - She points out that the White House did not adequately defend her against claims of being a "diversity hire" [4]. - Harris also mentions a lack of support from the administration when addressing issues related to Central American immigration [4]. Group 5: Zero-Sum Mentality in Biden's Team - Harris believes that Biden's core team fears her success could overshadow Biden, reflecting a zero-sum mentality where her achievements are seen as a threat to his image [5]. - She argues that her success should be viewed as a shared victory rather than a competition for attention [5].

特朗普政府将大量时间与精力投入两大外交领域，而在不到24小时内，这两个领域各出现了一项重大挑 战。 以色列空袭多哈的哈马斯办公室，以及俄罗斯无人机深入波兰领空，这两件事给白宫带来了两大难题 ——可以说，这是对特朗普权威的两大公然挑战。 在这两起事件中，他眼中"虽有分歧但属天然盟友"的领导人——俄罗斯总统普京与以色列总理内塔尼亚 胡——都给白宫的和平努力添了大麻烦。 以色列空袭多哈：打乱加沙外交架构 毕竟，对于乌克兰和加沙这两场冲突，这位美国总统曾表示会迅速、果断地解决。 先看时机：特朗普政府刚提交旨在结束加沙战争的最新提案两天，多哈空袭就发生了。 特朗普在社交媒体上告诉哈马斯，这是他们的最后机会。 "我已警告哈马斯，不接受（提案）将面临后果，"他上周日在"真相社交"上写道，"这是我的最后通 牒，不会再有下一次！" 哈马斯高层在多哈集会，商议如何回应提案，但以色列没有等待结果。这次空袭不仅彻底推翻了美国的 最新提案，还可能摧毁特朗普政府严重依赖的、脆弱的加沙外交架构。 关于美国"何时、如何得知以色列空袭计划"，以及"是否本可采取更多措施阻止"，争议不断。卡塔尔境 内有美国在全球最重要的空军基地之一（乌代德基地） ...

SHMET 网讯：特朗普为争夺美联储控制权发起的史无前例行动，于周三迎来充满悬念的阶段性结 局。两场平行推进的博弈将共同决定谁有权参与下周至关重要的美联储利率会议。 周二深夜，联邦法官批准了美联储理事莉萨·库克（Lisa Cook）的禁制令申请，暂时阻止了特朗普 罢免其职务的企图。这项裁决不仅是库克个人的重要法律胜利，更广泛意义上也是央行独立性的胜利 ——它确保库克至少目前得以留任，并为她参加下周美联储会议扫清道路。届时官员们很可能做出今年 首次降息决定。 周三上午，焦点转向参议院银行委员会。共和党人正全力推动特朗普顾问斯蒂芬·米兰（Stephen Miran）填补美联储理事会另一个空缺席位，这意味着参议院最快本周进行全院表决，使其有望参与同 一场会议。 在今夏一连串疲软就业数据公布后，市场普遍预期下周会议将降息25个基点。库克在政策决策上与 美联储主席鲍威尔始终保持一致。由于米兰未透露具体政策倾向，其是否会支持更大幅度降息尚不可 知。 除即时投票权外，参会资格之所以关键，在于官员们将提交新季度经济预测，这些展望将塑造市场 对美联储后续行动的预期。 为绕开美联储理事长期享有的职务保障，特朗普上月以所谓"房贷欺 ...