Core Insights - The World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) reported a global refined copper surplus of 46,500 tons in June 2025, with production at 2,173,500 tons and consumption at 2,127,000 tons [2] - For the first half of 2025, global refined copper production reached 13,043,800 tons, while consumption was 12,715,100 tons, resulting in a surplus of 32,8700 tons [2] - In June 2025, global copper concentrate production was 1,530,300 tons, and for the first half of 2025, it totaled 8,950,000 tons [2]

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper prices experienced fluctuations due to fund selling, with a closing increase observed before the upcoming speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell [1][4]. Group 1: Copper Market - On August 20, LME three-month copper rose by $28.5, or 0.29%, closing at $9,720.5 per ton, after hitting a low of $9,670.50, the lowest since August 7 [1][2]. - Concerns over demand have led to spot copper trading at a discount of nearly $100 per ton compared to three-month copper, marking the deepest discount since February [4]. Group 2: Other Base Metals - Three-month aluminum prices closed at $2,576.5 per ton, up $13 or 0.51%, after earlier touching a two-week low of $2,558 per ton [2][4]. - The International Aluminium Institute (IAI) reported that global primary aluminum production in July was 6.373 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, with a daily average production of 205,600 tons [4].

Core Insights - In July 2025, China's refined copper imports totaled 335,969.236 tons, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 0.32% but a year-on-year increase of 12.05% [1][3]. Import Data Summary - The Democratic Republic of the Congo was the largest supplier, with imports of 142,798.87 tons, showing a month-on-month increase of 20.72% and a year-on-year increase of 20.83% [2][3]. - Russia ranked second, with imports of 30,590.119 tons, which decreased by 32.25% month-on-month but increased by 20.76% year-on-year [2][3]. - Other notable suppliers included: - Zambia: 20,206.62 tons, up 28.99% month-on-month and 469.51% year-on-year [2]. - Chile: 19,232.32 tons, up 11.73% month-on-month but down 32.64% year-on-year [2]. - Netherlands: 16,841.56 tons, up 221.99% month-on-month [2]. - China: 13,156.07 tons, down 65.17% month-on-month but up 6398.49% year-on-year [2]. - Kazakhstan: 11,604.99 tons, down 33.21% month-on-month and down 42.41% year-on-year [2]. - Japan: 11,386.95 tons, down 24.67% month-on-month and down 39.51% year-on-year [2]. - Serbia: 7,381.33 tons, up 36.69% month-on-month and 145.39% year-on-year [2]. - Morocco: 6,611.97 tons, down 11.63% month-on-month but up 30.99% year-on-year [2]. - Australia: 6,399.56 tons, down 38.21% month-on-month and down 61.17% year-on-year [2]. - Peru: 6,031.50 tons, up 12237.90% month-on-month but down 37.29% year-on-year [2]. - South Korea: 5,929.16 tons, down 48.82% month-on-month and down 28.04% year-on-year [2]. - Uzbekistan: 5,285.00 tons, up 88.54% month-on-month but down 6.98% year-on-year [2]. - Pakistan: 4,667.68 tons, up 52.57% month-on-month and up 7.75% year-on-year [2]. - Poland: 3,503.60 tons, down 18.26% month-on-month and down 36.65% year-on-year [2]. - South Africa: 2,878.90 tons, down 0.65% month-on-month and down 22.55% year-on-year [2]. - Myanmar: 2,813.13 tons, up 107.15% month-on-month and 988.21% year-on-year [2]. - Indonesia: 2,648.80 tons, down 41.73% month-on-month and up 1.25% year-on-year [2]. - Iran: 1,998.54 tons [2]. - UAE: 1,929.54 tons, up 49.64% month-on-month but down 53.38% year-on-year [2]. - Mongolia: 1,664.43 tons, up 4.37% month-on-month and 23.55% year-on-year [2]. - Malaysia: 1,643.05 tons, up 82.30% month-on-month and 94.50% year-on-year [2]. - Qatar: 1,221.70 tons, down 16.69% month-on-month and down 33.43% year-on-year [2]. - Thailand: 874.12 tons, down 8.31% month-on-month and down 48.04% year-on-year [2]. - India: 840.01 tons, up 12.99% month-on-month and 227.26% year-on-year [2]. - Total imports included data from other unspecified origins [5].

海关统计数据在线查询平台公布的数据显示，中国2025年7月锌矿砂及其精矿进口量为501,424.966吨， 环比增长51.97%，同比增加37.65%。 | 原产地 | 2025年7月(吨) | 环比 | 同比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 澳大利亚 | 118,780.25 | 242.61% | 73.71% | | 秘鲁 | 92,672.67 | 30.89% | 24.94% | | 俄罗斯 | 59.797.00 | -3.09% | 110.13% | | 南非 | 28,516.67 | 39.98% | 154.97% | | 玻利维亚 | 27.454.47 | 99.17% | -22.81% | | 哈萨克斯坦 | 23,060.97 | -5.91% | -34.39% | | 墨西哥 | 23,011.11 | 300.70% | 115.51% | | 厄立特里亚 | 20,127.91 | 117.30% | 100.09% | | 阿曼 | 15.904.41 | -13.99% | -20.76% | | 刚果民主共和国 | 15,105.60 ...

Core Insights - In July 2025, China's imports of copper ore and concentrates reached 2,560,072.316 tons, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 8.96% and a year-on-year increase of 18.45% [1][2][3] Import Data Summary - Chile remains the largest supplier, with imports of 754,439.976 tons, showing a month-on-month increase of 11.90% but a year-on-year decrease of 6.97% [1][2] - Peru is the second-largest supplier, with imports of 593,819.612 tons, marking a month-on-month increase of 13.49% and a year-on-year increase of 44.84% [1][2] - Other notable suppliers include: - Mongolia: 178,697.13 tons, down 5.85% month-on-month, up 42.50% year-on-year [2] - Kazakhstan: 135,204.89 tons, down 6.60% month-on-month, up 0.99% year-on-year [2] - Spain: 92,322.17 tons, year-on-year increase of 50.68% [2] - Russia: 90,896.43 tons, up 12.74% month-on-month, up 185.18% year-on-year [2] - Democratic Republic of the Congo: 83,090.40 tons, up 42.39% month-on-month, up 78.50% year-on-year [2] - Indonesia: 82,645.81 tons, down 8.97% month-on-month, up 690.66% year-on-year [2] - Ecuador: 72,147.72 tons, up 55.45% month-on-month, up 9.35% year-on-year [2] - Australia: 68,914.48 tons, up 121.06% month-on-month, up 130.13% year-on-year [2] - The total import volume includes contributions from various other countries, with significant fluctuations noted in several regions [3]

以下为根据中国海关总署官网数据整理的2025年7月精炼锌进口分项数据一览表： | 同在曲 | 2025年7月(吨) | 环比 | 同比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 哈萨克斯坦 | 12,252.06 | -14.27% | 44.21% | | 澳大利亚 | 2.762.54 | -39.92% | -55.97% | | 印度 | 1.476.56 | -70.36% | | | 西班牙 | 774.95 | -89.13% | 157.42% | | 印度尼西亚 | 472.33 | 225.52% | | | 加拿大 | 78.27 | -- | -70.82% | | 韩国 | 48.39 | -82.19% | 582.72% | | 秘鲁 | 28.81 | -43.00% | | | 日本 | 10.00 | 1841.17% | -97.50% | | 总计 | 17.903.91 | -50.35% | -2.97% | 澳大利亚是第二大供应国，当月从澳大利亚进口精炼锌2,762.539吨，环比减少39.92%，同比下降 55.97%。 海关统计数据在线查询平 ...

海关统计数据在线查询平台公布的数据显示，中国2025年7月铝土矿（铝矿砂及其精矿）进口量为 20,062,990.002吨，环比增长10.75%，同比增加52.64%。 以下为根据中国海关总署官网数据整理的2025年7月铝土矿进口分项数据一览表： | 原产地 | 2025年7月(吨) | 环比 | 同比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 几内亚 | 15,941,897.97 | 19.65% | 72.74% | | 澳大利亚 | 3,133,603.59 | 3.85% | -9.79% | | 塞拉利昂 | 225,784.65 | -40.09% | -- | | 田 | 189,357.67 | 75.35% | 84.39% | | 牙买加 | 130.058.99 | 181.10% | -- | | 三来西亚 | 127,750.46 | 47.73% | 34.85% | | 科特迪瓦 | 99,178.60 | 103.22% | 96.09% | | 老挝 | 98,367.99 | -24.22% | 329.93% | | 圭亚那 | 47.589.00 | ...

海关统计数据在线查询平台公布的数据显示，中国2025年7月原铝进口量为248,331.362吨，环比增加 29.07%，同比增长91.17%。 俄罗斯是第一大供应国，当月从俄罗斯进口原铝190,834.322吨，环比上升17.46%，同比增加119.24%。 | 日本市 | 2025年7月(吨) | 环比 | 同比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 俄罗斯 | 190,834.32 | 17.46% | 119.24% | | 印度居西亚 | 38,072.64 | 235.52% | 223.65% | | 印度 | 10,735.90 | 24.24% | 387.81% | | 澳大利亚 | 3,234.82 | -33.64% | -11.00% | | 阿曼 | 1,987.40 | -- | -- | | 三来西亚 | 1,885.47 | -49.16% | -12.57% | | 新四兰 | 582.84 | 211.00% | 55.60% | | 阿联酋 | 298.28 | -- | -85.16% | | 沙特阿拉伯 | 200.58 | 99.64% | - ...

Group 1 - Recent domestic copper concentrate processing fees have rebounded, indicating a significant easing of supply tightness due to additional concentrate supply entering the market [2][3] - The domestic refined copper supply for the first half of the year was approximately 7.75 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.56%, driven by production growth [5] - The overall refined copper supply in China is expected to remain sufficient, with domestic smelters maintaining high production levels despite seasonal maintenance [6] Group 2 - Domestic copper social inventory has shown signs of recovery, primarily due to increased imports, while U.S. copper inventory continues to rise [7][8] - The copper price is expected to experience a downward adjustment in the short term, but the long-term outlook remains positive due to underlying support factors [9][10] - The demand for copper in the second half of the year is anticipated to remain strong in China, while overseas demand may follow a high-low trend [7]

Group 1 - LME tin inventory has decreased to 1,630 tons, marking a two-year low [2] - Shanghai Futures Exchange reported a weekly decrease in tin inventory by 0.17% to 7,792 tons, remaining at a relatively high level for two months [2] - Generally, declining inventories in both domestic and international exchanges provide support for tin prices, while increasing inventories may exert downward pressure [2] Group 2 - Comparison of LME and Shanghai Futures Exchange tin inventory shows a downward trend in LME inventory from 1,950 tons on August 1 to 1,630 tons on August 19 [4] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory remained stable around 7,792 tons during the same period [4] - The data indicates a significant divergence in inventory trends between LME and Shanghai Futures Exchange [4]