Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Commerzbank expects copper and aluminum prices to continue rising next year, reaching $12,000 and $3,200 per ton respectively [1] - Commerzbank forecasts zinc prices to be around $3,000 per ton next year [1] - The bank anticipates a moderate long-term increase in nickel prices, projecting a price of $16,000 per ton by the end of 2026 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Glencore has reduced its stake in Century Aluminum by 10% to 33%, benefiting from increased profits in local aluminum smelting due to U.S. import tariffs on aluminum, resulting in several million dollars in gains [1] Group 1: Company Actions - Glencore is the largest shareholder of Century Aluminum and supplies alumina to the company while purchasing nearly all of its North American aluminum products for U.S. customers [1] - The reduction in Glencore's stake comes after the U.S. government raised aluminum import tariffs to 50% on June 4, aimed at encouraging domestic aluminum production [1] Group 2: Industry Context - Century Aluminum is the largest primary aluminum producer in the U.S., with a production of 690,000 tons of aluminum in 2024 [1] - According to Trade Data Monitor, U.S. aluminum imports are projected to be 3.94 million tons in 2024, indicating a significant market size [1] - Producers must ensure that their product prices cover the tariffs to continue shipping aluminum to the U.S. [1]

Group 1 - LME copper prices continued to decline, with three-month copper down 0.50% to $10,725 per ton, and Shanghai copper down 790 yuan or 0.88% to 85,650 yuan per ton [1] - The strong US dollar, benefiting from reduced expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut next month, has made dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for investors using other currencies [1] - Analysts noted that the labor market signals are becoming increasingly sensitive as investors reassess the Federal Reserve's recent path due to the delayed September employment data [1] Group 2 - Nickel prices also showed weakness, with three-month nickel down 0.58% to $14,565 per ton, testing the lowest levels since April [1] - LME nickel inventories rose to 252,090 tons, indicating a potential oversupply in the market [3] - Other metals such as aluminum, zinc, lead, and tin also experienced price declines, with three-month aluminum down 0.68% to $2,794.50 per ton [3] Group 3 - The battery raw material nickel sulfate is showing signs of weakness as of November [2] - The price of ferrosilicon is currently slightly above 900 yuan per nickel point, down from over 950 yuan per nickel point in mid-October [1]

Core Insights - China's copper production in October 2025 reached 200.4 thousand tons, showing a month-on-month decline of over 10% [1] - From January to October, China's copper production totaled 2,012.4 thousand tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.9% [1] - In October, copper prices continued to rise, reaching historical highs, which significantly suppressed downstream demand, leading to a decline in copper production [1]

Core Insights - China's refined copper (electrolytic copper) production in October 2025 reached 1.204 million tons, marking an 8.9% year-on-year increase. Cumulative production from January to October was 12.295 million tons, reflecting a 9.7% year-on-year growth [1][2]. Group 1: Metal Production Data - Alumina production in October was 7.865 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 5.8% and a cumulative increase of 8.0% for the year [2]. - Non-ferrous metals production totaled 6.954 million tons in October, showing a 2.9% year-on-year increase and a cumulative increase of 3.1% [2]. - Zinc production in October was 0.665 million tons, with a significant year-on-year increase of 15.7% and a cumulative increase of 8.5% [2]. - Aluminum production in October was 0.645 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 2.4%, while cumulative production showed a slight increase of 0.3% [2]. - Copper products production was 2.004 million tons in October, down 3.3% year-on-year, but cumulative production increased by 5.9% [2]. - Aluminum alloy production reached 1.682 million tons in October, with a notable year-on-year increase of 17.2% and a cumulative increase of 15.7% [2].

Core Viewpoint - The European Commission plans to impose restrictions on the export of scrap aluminum to prevent significant outflow and ensure the availability of materials necessary for decarbonization in the industry [1] Group 1: Export Trends - The export volume of scrap aluminum from the EU is projected to reach a record 1.26 million tons in 2024, an increase of approximately 50% compared to five years ago, with most exports directed to Asia [1] - The situation has worsened due to the U.S. imposing a 50% import tariff on aluminum while only charging 15% on scrap, leading to increased U.S. imports of scrap aluminum and reduced exports from the EU [1] Group 2: Regulatory Actions - The European Commission began monitoring exports in July and is evaluating the necessity of taking action regarding scrap aluminum exports [1] - A new measure to address the issue of scrap aluminum outflow is being prepared, which is expected to be implemented in spring 2026, aiming for a balanced approach that considers the interests of producers, recyclers, and downstream industries [1] Group 3: Industry Impact - Scrap aluminum plays a crucial role in the decarbonization efforts of the industry, as recycling aluminum consumes 95% less energy compared to producing aluminum from bauxite ore [1] - The European Recycling Industries Confederation (EuRIC) opposes the restrictions, arguing that the export of scrap aluminum is a result of low regional demand and insufficient capacity for processing mixed waste within the EU [1]

Core Viewpoint - Nickel prices have recently hit five-year lows after a prolonged period of fluctuation around the 120,000 yuan mark, primarily due to oversupply and weakening demand in the market [1] Supply and Demand Factors - Nickel has been in a state of oversupply for over two years, with production capacity in Indonesia and domestically slowing down, yet still releasing excess capacity [2] - LME refined nickel inventories have surpassed 200,000 tons, with a recent increase of over 5,000 tons, indicating growing industry pressure [2] - Demand from the downstream sector, particularly for nickel sulfate used in electric vehicles, has shown signs of slowing, contributing to market pressure [2][3] Price Dynamics - The recent decline in nickel prices is attributed to both fundamental and financial factors, including a slight decrease in benchmark prices for nickel ore and weak demand from stainless steel and new energy sectors [3] - LME nickel inventory reached 257,694 tons, with domestic SMM social inventory exceeding 50,000 tons, indicating significant inventory pressure [3] - Nickel and stainless steel prices are expected to remain in a bearish trend, with prices recently breaking below the 120,000 yuan support level [4] Cost Support Logic - Recent price adjustments in Indonesian nickel ore have shown a slight decline, with domestic benchmark prices dropping by 0.14-0.39 USD per wet ton [5] - The cost support for nickel may become more pronounced as the profitability of nickel iron is squeezed by both upstream and downstream pressures [5] - Current price levels have fallen below the cost of fire refining, suggesting that cost support may hinge on wet refining costs [5][6] Future Price Trends - High inventory levels are expected to suppress prices in the short term, but potential cost support may emerge as nickel iron prices approach production cost levels [7] - Future price movements will depend on whether domestic primary nickel production shows signs of slowing and if Indonesia implements new industrial policies [7] - Recent reports indicate that Indonesia may limit new smelting plant licenses and adjust nickel production targets, which could impact future supply dynamics [7][8]

Core Point - The Democratic Republic of Congo has extended the ban on trading minerals from conflict-affected artisanal mining sites in North and South Kivu provinces for an additional six months, increasing compliance pressure on the global supply chain for tin, tantalum, and tungsten, which are critical raw materials for the electronics, automotive, and aerospace industries [1] Group 1 - The ban was originally implemented in February and is based on evidence that illegal supplies from these mines are funding armed groups in the eastern region [1] - The order, signed by Mining Minister Louis Watum Kabamba on November 3, applies to 38 mining sites in Masisi (North Kivu) and Kalehe (South Kivu) that produce coltan, tin, and tungsten ores [1] - The extension of the ban highlights ongoing challenges in ensuring ethical sourcing of minerals in conflict zones [1]

Core Points - LME copper prices fell for the second consecutive day, influenced by a slight strengthening of the US dollar, diminished hopes for further Fed rate cuts, and various macroeconomic concerns [1][4] - The three-month LME copper price decreased by $73.5, or 0.68%, closing at $10,778.5 per ton [1][2] Group 1: Market Overview - Basic metal fundamentals remain unchanged, with the market awaiting delayed US economic data and more clues regarding monetary policy [4] - The strengthening US dollar makes metals priced in dollars more expensive for investors holding other currencies, impacting market sentiment [4] - Current demand outlook is limited, with copper prices constrained within a narrow range and other signals appearing to deteriorate [4] Group 2: Specific Metal Performance - LME spot copper is trading at a $29 per ton discount to the three-month copper, indicating weak short-term demand [4] - LME zinc shows a $100 per ton premium for spot zinc over three-month zinc, highlighting tight supply with LME zinc inventories below 40,000 tons [5] - LME three-month aluminum fell by $45, or 1.57%, closing at $2,813.5 per ton, reaching its lowest since October 23 [5]

瑞银（UBS）重申了其对铜的建设性立场，认为即使市场在短期内经历了供需疲软期，铜的结构性紧缩 状况仍然未改。 以Daniel Major为首的瑞银分析师团队认为，现货市场"平衡但并不紧张"，一些细分市场的需求疲软， 以及与关税相关的预购积压，打压了市场情绪。 然而，矿山生产中断、评级下调和投资者对硬资产重新燃起的兴趣使投机性头寸居高不下。 瑞银团队认为，铜的配置在2026年仍然有利。他们预计需求将增长约3%，而矿山和精炼供应增长不到 1%，他们认为这将导致供应短缺、库存减少和基本面更加稳固。 然而，该团队警告称，目前的环境不太可能在短期内支撑铜价持续突破每吨11,000美元。 "由于需求不太可能在短期内产生影响，精炼产量保持不变，LME净头寸上升，我们认为，基本面收紧 不太可能为LME铜在短期内持续突破11,000美元提供催化剂。" 在精炼铜方面，尽管精矿供应紧张，且废铜可用性有限，但产量仍保持惊人的韧性。据中国国家统计局 发布的数据显示，1-9月中国精炼铜产量同比增加10.0%。 SMM联合制作联系人 刘明康 156 5309 0867 包括菲律宾、纳米比亚和智利在内的其他国家的减产不足以抵消这一增长。瑞银 ...