周末特朗普关税威胁再起，今日资金面偏松，股债震荡。 早盘债市情绪偏积极，10Y国债利率微幅低开在1.6875%后最低下至1.682%附近。股市震荡，利率亦在 1.685%附近震荡。尾盘路透消息：总理表示还在研究储备新政策工具包括超常规措施，利率小幅回升 至1.69%附近。 为什么历经风雨也不一定做好？因为老手总是回头看过去，总是拿着过去的经验与现在做对比，却忘了 金融市场唯一不变的就是变。 ——笔记哥《应对》 【笔记20250526— 一年定存 30年降10%（+周末特朗普关税威胁再起+资金面均衡偏松=涨跌互现)】 资金面均衡偏松，长债收益率涨跌不一。 央行公开市场开展3820亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有1350亿元逆回购到期，净投放2470亿元。 资金面均衡偏松，资金价格平稳，DR001在1.51%附近，DR007在1.65%附近。 今天看到一组"反直觉"的数据： 1、定存利率不断下降：以一年期定存利率为例，自1996年以来，从10.98%降至0.95%； | | 年期定存利率回忆录 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 年度 | 利率 | 万元利息 | | 1996 | 10.98% | 1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of market rumors and the behavior of investors in response to these rumors, emphasizing the importance of following market trends regardless of the truth behind the rumors [1]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The central bank conducted a 1,425 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, with 1,065 billion yuan maturing today, resulting in a net injection of 360 billion yuan [2]. - The interbank funding market showed a slight increase in funding prices, with DR001 around 1.57% and DR007 around 1.59% [2]. - The morning saw a tightening of the funding environment, while the afternoon experienced a loosening, leading to mixed movements in the bond market [3]. Group 2: Bond Market Dynamics - The issuance scale of government bonds was relatively high today, with the 10-year government bond rate opening slightly higher at 1.6875% before fluctuating downwards [4]. - The 10-year government bond rate reached around 1.7% during the day, influenced by tax payments and market sentiment [4]. - The 30-year Japanese government bond yield has surged by 85 basis points to 2.96% since early April, raising concerns about potential impacts on the domestic bond market [4]. Group 3: Revenue Comparisons - From January to April, the national non-tax revenue reached 1.5 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.7%, marking a historical high for the same period [4]. - In contrast, local land transfer revenue was 934 billion yuan, which is half of the historical high in 2021 (2,138.3 billion yuan), representing the lowest level since 2015 for the same period [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in bond yields, particularly focusing on the rise in U.S. and Japanese government bond rates, and the implications for the market, including concerns about upcoming bond issuances and the performance of the banking sector [2][4]. Group 1: Bond Market Analysis - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield increased by 11.2 basis points to 4.593%, while Japan's 30-year bond yield rose by 3.5 basis points to 3.17% [4]. - The bond market is experiencing a mixed sentiment with concerns about upcoming primary issuances, leading to a cautious approach among bond traders [4]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is conducting a significant MLF operation of 500 billion yuan with a one-year term to maintain liquidity in the banking system [2]. Group 2: Banking Sector Performance - The banking sector led the gains in the A-share market, indicating a positive sentiment towards banks amidst the current market conditions [4]. - The article highlights a strong interest from investors in bank stocks, particularly in the context of recent technology and financial policy announcements [4]. Group 3: Market Liquidity and Rates - The liquidity in the banking system remains balanced, with the DR001 and DR007 rates around 1.48% and 1.57%, respectively [2]. - The weighted average rates for various repo codes indicate slight fluctuations, with R001 at 1.53% and R007 at 1.58%, reflecting the current market dynamics [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current market dynamics, highlighting the impact of interest rate adjustments on both the stock and bond markets, as well as shifts in consumer spending behavior and preferences in entertainment activities. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The trading volume indicates significant divergence in market sentiment, with low volumes suggesting indecision and high volumes indicating consensus on price levels, leading to energy accumulation and release cycles [1] - The central bank conducted a 3.57 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, resulting in a net injection of 1.77 billion yuan, contributing to a balanced and slightly loose funding environment [1][2] - The recent adjustments in deposit rates and LPR (Loan Prime Rate) led to a slight increase in stock prices and a modest rise in bond yields, with the 10-year government bond yield moving to approximately 1.666% [1][2] Group 2: Consumer Spending Trends - In 2024, the average per capita consumption in the national catering sector decreased to 39.8 yuan, a year-on-year decline of 6.6%, with the proportion of consumers increasing spending dropping from 50.0% in 2023 to 31.3% [4] - The contribution of the 20-39 age group to consumption growth has fallen from 30.3% to 19.1% since 2018, reflecting a shift in entertainment preferences towards more contemplative activities like park visits and City Walks [6] - A significant decline in traditional entertainment activities is noted, with KTV and bars experiencing a drop of 87% and 65% respectively, while activities like park visits and City Walks have seen substantial increases of 226% and 218% [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent market fluctuations and the tendency of investors to engage in "revenge trading" after experiencing losses or missed opportunities, indicating a psychological response to market volatility [1]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The central bank conducted a 1,065 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation, with 770 billion yuan reverse repos maturing today, resulting in a net injection of 295 billion yuan [2]. - The interbank funding market showed a tightening trend in the morning, with the funding rates significantly rising; DR001 and DR007 increased by 22 basis points and 11 basis points, respectively, reaching around 1.63% [2]. - The bond market sentiment was cautious, with the 10-year government bond yield opening at 1.67% and peaking at 1.685%, reflecting a weak issuance sentiment for 20-year bonds [4]. Group 2: Trading Dynamics - The trading volume in the repo market showed a decline, with R001 at 59,107.07 million yuan, down by 6,446.34 million yuan, and R007 at 7,625.09 million yuan, up by 687.90 million yuan [3]. - The overall market saw a slight decline in stock prices, with the sentiment in the bond market remaining cautious and the funding rates fluctuating throughout the day [4]. - The article notes that each "rate cut" tends to create a feeling of "rate hike," indicating a cyclical nature of market reactions to monetary policy changes [5].

Group 1 - The article discusses the costs associated with doing business and investing, emphasizing that every transaction has an acceptable maximum loss rather than just the principal investment [1] - The central bank conducted a 645 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, with a total net withdrawal of 2,191 billion yuan due to maturing reverse repos and MLF [1][2] - The interbank funding rates remained stable, with DR001 around 1.41% and DR007 around 1.52% throughout the day [1] Group 2 - The overnight risk assets saw a slight increase, while the bond market remained stable with the 10-year government bond yield hovering around 1.67% [3] - The central bank has been net withdrawing funds for three consecutive days, and the recent reserve requirement ratio cut has led to a weak performance in the stock market [3] - The article notes that the recent performance of the 2-year treasury futures has been weak, attributed to market uncertainty regarding the sustainability of monetary easing [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of establishing a personal investment system to navigate market emotions effectively and maintain a strategic focus without being swayed by market fluctuations. Group 1: Market Conditions - The financial market is currently characterized by a balanced and loose liquidity environment, with the central bank conducting a 920 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1,035 billion yuan due to 1,955 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing [1]. - The stock market is showing strength, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3,400 points, while the 10-year government bond yield has seen slight fluctuations, peaking at 1.675% before settling at 1.669% [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The overnight U.S. April CPI data came in below expectations, contributing to a positive sentiment in overseas risk assets [3]. - The latest data from the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security indicates that the unemployment insurance fund expenditure reached 46.5 billion yuan in the first quarter, marking a significant year-on-year increase of 22%, approaching the peak levels seen during the pandemic in 2020-2021 [3]. Group 3: Shipping Industry Insights - Recent reports indicate a "container explosion" in U.S. maritime shipping, primarily attributed to the clearance of previously accumulated cargo rather than an increase in trade volume with the U.S. [3]. - The article notes that the impact of tariffs may become more pronounced after June, and uncertainties remain regarding potential changes in trade policies, particularly with the unpredictability of political figures [3].

Core Viewpoint - The market is currently in a sideways consolidation phase, indicating a balance of power between bulls and bears, with an uncertain direction. A significant catalyst is needed to break this equilibrium [1]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The funding environment is balanced and loose, with long-term bond yields showing a noticeable decline. The central bank conducted a 1.8 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation, with 4.05 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing today, resulting in a net withdrawal of 2.25 billion yuan [1]. - The overnight risk assets were boosted by the US-China tariff negotiations, but the stock market opened high and then declined, reflecting a loose funding environment and fluctuating interest rates [2]. Group 2: Interest Rates and Trading Volume - The weighted rates for various repo codes are as follows: R001 at 1.43% (up 9 basis points), R007 at 1.53% (down 7 basis points), and R014 at 1.58% (down 1 basis point). The total transaction volume for R001 was 64.57 billion yuan, an increase of 4.91 billion yuan, while R007 had a transaction volume of 8.73 billion yuan, up by 2.52 billion yuan [2]. - The bond market sentiment is stable, with the 10-year government bond yield opening at 1.6775% and fluctuating down to approximately 1.662%. This stability is attributed to three main factors: a loose funding environment, the stock market's habitual high open and low close, and the persistent high tariffs compared to pre-April 2 levels [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of execution over the perfection of systems in trading, suggesting that even flawed rules can become profitable if executed strictly [1]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The April inflation data met expectations, and the joint statement from the US-China trade talks exceeded expectations, leading to a strong stock market performance and a significant rise in bond yields [4]. - The central bank conducted a 430 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, resulting in a net injection of 430 billion yuan into the market [1]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the joint statement, US and Hong Kong stocks surged, while bonds and gold prices fell, indicating a positive market sentiment [4]. - The 10-year government bond yield rose sharply to approximately 1.6775% after the announcement of reduced tariffs from both the US and China [4]. Group 3: Interest Rates - The interbank funding rates showed a downward trend, with DR001 falling over 7 basis points to 1.41% and DR007 dropping below 1.5% [2]. - The weighted average rates for various interbank funding instruments were reported, with R001 at 1.46%, R007 at 1.55%, and R014 at 1.60%, reflecting a general decline in rates [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the dynamics of market sentiment and interest rates, emphasizing the impact of external events on investment behavior and market fluctuations. Group 1: Market Dynamics - When market conditions are favorable, investors tend to be greedy, hoping for further gains, but during market corrections, they may panic and exit positions to secure profits [1] - The recent April import and export data exceeded expectations, contributing to cautious market sentiment amid U.S.-China trade discussions and a meeting in Switzerland [2][6] - The central bank's decision to resume government bond trading operations is seen as a potential factor influencing interest rates [6] Group 2: Interest Rate Movements - The central bank conducted a 770 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, resulting in a net injection of liquidity into the market [3] - The funding environment remains balanced and loose, with the DR001 rate dropping below 1.5% to 1.49% and DR007 decreasing to 1.54% [4] - The weighted average rates for various repo codes showed a decline, with R001 at 1.52% (down 5 basis points) and R007 at 1.58% (down 7 basis points) [5]