Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI data for July indicates a slight decline, reflecting ongoing challenges in demand and business expectations, with price transmission facing resistance despite some improvements in raw material costs [2][20]. Group 1: Price Transmission Challenges - The purchasing price index for major raw materials rose above the critical point for the first time since March, but terminal prices remain weak, as evidenced by the PMI output price index continuing to stay below the expansion threshold [10][21]. - The BCI consumer price forecast index decreased to 40.14% from 43.84%, while the BCI intermediate goods price forecast index fell to 31.14% from 36.55%, indicating a lack of significant improvement in terminal prices [10][21]. Group 2: Demand Weakness - The manufacturing PMI new orders index fell to 49.4% in July from 50.2%, suggesting a decline in demand compared to previous months [4][20]. - The BCI enterprise sales forecast index also dropped to 51.08% from 54.63%, reflecting a weakening outlook for sales [4][14]. Group 3: Weak Business Expectations - Business activity expectations across manufacturing, construction, and services remain low, with the manufacturing expectation index slightly rising to 52.6% from 52.0%, but still below previous highs [5][17]. - The BIC enterprise recruitment forecast index decreased to 44.5% from 49.1%, indicating reduced hiring intentions among businesses [5][17]. Group 4: Manufacturing PMI Data - The July manufacturing PMI registered at 49.3%, down from 49.7%, with specific indices showing declines in production, new orders, and export orders [2][20]. - The PMI production index fell to 50.5% from 51.0%, while the new export orders index decreased to 47.1% from 47.7% [20][22].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the market's expectation for interest rate cuts has significantly cooled following the July FOMC meeting, with indications that a rate cut in September is unlikely [2][4][8] - The FOMC has maintained the federal funds target rate at 4.25%-4.50% for the fifth consecutive meeting, which aligns with market expectations, but internal divisions within the Fed have increased, with two members supporting a 25 basis point cut [2][15][16] - The statement regarding economic growth has softened, indicating a slowdown in economic activity during the first half of the year, contrasting with previous assessments of robust expansion [2][16][17] Group 2 - Powell's press conference reflected a relatively neutral stance, acknowledging a slowdown in consumer spending while indicating that consumer conditions remain healthy [3][18][20] - The labor market is described as stable, with wage growth approaching sustainable long-term levels, although the unemployment rate's stability is partly due to synchronized declines in labor supply and demand [3][18][20] - Inflation dynamics have shifted, with service sector inflation decreasing while goods inflation is rising, influenced by tariffs and the gradual impact of restrictive monetary policy [3][20][21] Group 3 - Market expectations for rate cuts have decreased, with implied cuts for the year dropping from 1.848 to 1.445 times, and the probability of a September cut falling from 68% to 47% [4][21] - The dollar index has risen, and the yield on ten-year U.S. Treasury bonds has increased, reflecting a market interpretation of Powell's statements as leaning towards a hawkish stance [4][21] - The article suggests that political pressure is not a significant factor influencing the Fed's decisions, as Powell has maintained the Fed's independence despite external pressures [5][11][12]

Core Viewpoint - The economic transition from technical recession to unexpected growth in the first half of 2025 is primarily influenced by tariff-induced import rushes, with underlying demand growth showing signs of weakening [4][6]. Group 1: Economic Growth and Demand - In the first half of 2025, the U.S. economy experienced fluctuations due to tariff impacts, transitioning from an import rush to inventory depletion, resulting in significant GDP growth variations [6][12]. - The GDP growth rate for Q2 2025 was +3% (expected +2.6%), with a year-on-year growth of +2% (expected +1.8%) [2][29]. - Internal demand growth, excluding inventory, slowed to a year-on-year rate of +2.3%, down from +2.7% in the second half of 2024, indicating a weakening trend [4][15]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Consumer spending in the first half of 2025 showed strength, particularly in automobiles and clothing, likely due to preemptive purchases ahead of tariff implementations [7][17]. - The year-on-year growth rate for automobile and parts consumption was +6.6%, significantly higher than the 2024 average of -0.8% [7][17]. - Concerns arise that this preemptive consumption may lead to a slowdown in consumer spending in the latter half of 2025 [7][17]. Group 3: Business Investment Trends - Business investment showed a divergence from durable goods orders, with non-residential investment growing by +3.2% year-on-year, while durable goods orders surged by +11.2% [8][22]. - The strong growth in durable goods orders was primarily driven by transportation equipment, particularly aircraft, while other sectors remained subdued [8][26]. - Boeing's increased production capacity and foreign orders driven by trade negotiations are expected to sustain the structural strength in aircraft orders [8][26]. Group 4: GDP Data Analysis - The second quarter of 2025 saw a notable improvement in GDP, with internal demand slightly improving to a year-on-year growth of +1.7% [29][35]. - Consumer spending remained robust, with goods consumption showing a year-on-year increase of +3.5% [35]. - Government spending continued to show a mild decline, with a year-on-year growth of +2.3% in the first half of 2025 [37].

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 袁玲玲（微信 Yuen43） 根据《证券期货投资者适当性管理办法》及配套指引，本资料仅面向华创证券客户中的金融机构专业投资者，请勿对本资料 进行任何形式的转发。若您不是华创证券客户中的金融机构专业投资者，请勿订阅、接收或使用本资料中的信息。本资料难 以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。感谢您的理解与配合。 法律声明 华 创 证券研究所 定 位 为 面 向 专 业 投 资 者的研究团队，本资料仅适用于经认可的 专 业 投 资 者 ， 仅 供 在 新 媒 体 背景下研究 观 点 的 及 时 交 流 。 华 创证券不因任何订阅本资料的行为而将订 阅 人 视 为 公 司 的 客 户 。 普 通 投资者若使 用 本 资 料 ， 有 可 能 因 缺乏解读服务而对报告中的关键假设、评 级 、 目 标 价 等 内 容 产 生 理 解 上的歧义， 进 而 造 成 投 资 损 失 。 本资料来自华创证券研究所已经发布的研究报告，若对报告的摘编产生歧义，应以报告发布当日的完整内容为 准。须注意的是，本资料仅代表报告发布当 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that the worst phase of economic circulation is likely passing, with a positive evaluation of the first half of the year and a focus on the preparation for the "15th Five-Year Plan" [2][9] - Key indicators such as the growth rate of corporate deposits and the difference in year-on-year growth rates of household deposits are showing signs of recovery, indicating a shift from excessive saving to normal spending [2][9] - The political bureau's recent meetings reflect a shift from emphasizing external risks to focusing on domestic economic preparations and the effectiveness of existing policies [2][8] Group 2 - The report highlights that the reliance on extraordinary policies is diminishing, with a focus on maximizing the effects of existing policies rather than introducing new ones [8][9] - The GDP growth rate for the first half of the year was 5.3%, easing the difficulty of achieving the annual target of around 5% [9] - The upcoming months are critical for validating economic trends, particularly in the absence of extraordinary policies [9][10] Group 3 - The emphasis has shifted from total monetary easing to structural monetary policy, with a focus on supporting specific sectors such as technology innovation and consumption [12][14] - The current household deposits amount to 160 trillion, with a significant portion being excess savings, which influences monetary policy decisions [14] Group 4 - The political bureau's stance on capital markets has evolved from merely stabilizing to actively enhancing attractiveness and momentum [18][20] - The report notes a significant divergence in the Sharpe ratio between stocks and bonds, indicating a potential shift in asset allocation favoring equities [20] Group 5 - The focus has shifted towards optimizing competitive order rather than administrative capacity reduction, with measures to combat unfair competition being emphasized [22][23] - The report outlines a three-phase approach to countering "involution," starting with controlling new projects and potentially leading to industry consolidation [24][26]

法律声明 华 创 证券研究所 定 位 为 面 向 专 业 投 资 者的研究团队，本资料仅适用于经认可的 专 业 投 资 者 ， 仅 供 在 新 媒 体 背景下研究 观 点 的 及 时 交 流 。 华 创证券不因任何订阅本资料的行为而将订 阅 人 视 为 公 司 的 客 户 。 普 通 投资者若使 用 本 资 料 ， 有 可 能 因 缺乏解读服务而对报告中的关键假设、评 级 、 目 标 价 等 内 容 产 生 理 解 上的歧义， 进 而 造 成 投 资 损 失 。 本资料来自华创证券研究所已经发布的研究报告，若对报告的摘编产生歧义，应以报告发布当日的完整内容为 准。须注意的是，本资料仅代表报告发布当日的判断，相关的分析意见及推测可能会根据华创证券研究所后续发 布的研究报告在不发出通知的情形下做出更改。华创证券的其他业务部门或附属机构可能独立做出与本资料的意 见或建议不一致的投资决策。本资料所指的证券或金融工具的价格、价值及收入可涨可跌，以往的表现不应作为 日后表现的显示及担保。本资料仅供订阅人参考之用，不是或不应被视为出售、购买或认购证券或其它金融工具 的要约或要约邀请。订阅人不应单纯依靠本资料的信息而取代自身 ...

National Level: Regulating Government and Enterprise Behavior - The legal tools for regulating internal competition include five key laws: the Anti-Unfair Competition Law, the Anti-Monopoly Law, the Price Law, the Fair Competition Review Regulations, and the Guidelines for the Construction of a Unified National Market (Trial) [4][11] - The revised Anti-Unfair Competition Law, effective from October 15, 2025, prohibits platform operators from forcing or indirectly compelling platform operators to sell products below cost, disrupting market order [12][4] - The Anti-Monopoly Law, revised in 2022, aims to prevent monopolistic practices and includes provisions against selling below cost without justification [13] - The Price Law revision focuses on regulating unfair pricing behaviors, including low-price dumping and coercive pricing practices [14] - The Fair Competition Review Regulations, effective from August 1, 2024, aim to ensure equal market access and prevent discriminatory practices [15] Industry Level: Adjusting Industrial Structure and Regulating Development - The "Industrial Structure Adjustment Guidance Catalog (2024)" categorizes projects into encouraged, restricted, and eliminated, with strict investment prohibitions on restricted and eliminated projects [5][18] - The "Cement and Glass Industry Capacity Replacement Implementation Measures (2024)" prohibits new capacity for cement and flat glass projects unless a capacity replacement plan is established [20] - The "Network Transaction Platform Rules Supervision Management Measures (Draft for Comments)" aims to prevent unreasonable restrictions on platform operators' pricing and operational autonomy [6][21] Product Level: Promoting the Exit of Outdated Capacity through Standards - National mandatory standards are being raised to facilitate the exit of outdated production capacities, focusing on energy consumption limits and equipment efficiency standards [7][22] - By 2025, 25 products, including coal, glass, and cement, must complete upgrades or eliminations, while 11 products, including urea and titanium dioxide, are targeted for 2026 [22][24] - New mandatory national standards have been issued for various industries, including chemicals and automotive manufacturing, although specific compliance timelines are not yet established [26]

Group 1: Capital Market Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) emphasized the importance of stabilizing the capital market and reforming it to enhance market vitality, focusing on three main tasks: consolidating market recovery, deepening reforms, and promoting long-term capital inflow [1][9] - The CSRC highlighted the need for a stable and healthy market environment, supported by the certainty of high-quality economic development and asset valuation recovery [1][9] Group 2: Hainan Free Trade Port - The Hainan Free Trade Port is set to officially start its closure operations on December 18, 2025, with a focus on implementing zero-tariff policies and optimizing tax arrangements to support diverse consumer needs [1][7] - The government plans to continue the duty-free shopping policy for Hainan, adjusting it to meet the evolving shopping demands of consumers [1][7] Group 3: Price Law Revisions - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) released a draft amendment to the Price Law, aiming to improve government pricing regulations and clarify standards for identifying unfair pricing behaviors, including low-price dumping [2][8] - The draft also seeks to enhance legal responsibilities for price violations, increasing penalties for non-compliance with pricing regulations [2][8] Group 4: Fiscal Policy Updates - The Ministry of Finance announced the allocation of 69 billion yuan in special long-term bonds to support the "old for new" consumption initiative, with additional funds to be distributed in October [2][10] - The fiscal measures aim to stimulate consumption and support economic recovery [2][10] Group 5: Energy Efficiency and Carbon Emission Regulations - The NDRC introduced new guidelines for energy efficiency reviews and carbon emission evaluations for fixed asset investment projects, establishing a dynamic adjustment mechanism for energy review authority [2][10][11] - Projects with significant energy consumption will undergo comprehensive reviews to ensure compliance with energy-saving and carbon reduction goals [2][10][11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises in June has narrowed its decline, indicating a potential stabilization in the return on assets (ROA) [1][19] - In June, the profit of industrial enterprises decreased by 4.3% year-on-year, an improvement from the previous decline of 9.1% [19] - The inventory level as of June increased by 3.1% year-on-year, slightly down from 3.5% in the previous month [19] Group 2 - The overall industrial profit margin in June was 5.96%, compared to 6.33% in the same period last year [19] - The manufacturing sector showed a profit growth of 1.43% in June, a significant recovery from the previous decline of 4.05% [23] - The automotive industry experienced a remarkable profit increase of 96.8% due to promotional activities and investment returns [23] Group 3 - The ROA for industrial enterprises in June was 4.14%, down from 4.18% in the previous month, indicating a cumulative decline of 0.16% for the year [3][8] - Factors affecting ROA include a 5.1% growth in asset speed and a 1.8% decline in profit growth from January to June [3][8] - The manufacturing upstream profit margin was 4.13% in June, lower than the 4.2% recorded in the same month last year [10][11] Group 4 - The manufacturing midstream profit margin improved to 6.35% in June, compared to 6.27% in the same period last year [10][11] - The manufacturing downstream profit margin was 5.51% in June, down from 6.63% a year earlier, indicating a need for monitoring consumer behavior [11][19] - The overall revenue growth for industrial enterprises was 1.0% in June, remaining stable compared to May [10][19]

法律声明 文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人：韩港 （HGK1366） 华 创 证券研究所 定 位 为 面 向 专 业 投 资 者的研究团队，本资料仅适用于经认可的 专 业 投 资 者 ， 仅 供 在 新 媒 体 背景下研究 观 点 的 及 时 交 流 。 华 创证券不因任何订阅本资料的行为而将订 阅 人 视 为 公 司 的 客 户 。 普 通 投资者若使 用 本 资 料 ， 有 可 能 因 缺乏解读服务而对报告中的关键假设、评 级 、 目 标 价 等 内 容 产 生 理 解 上的歧义， 进 而 造 成 投 资 损 失 。 根据《证券期货投资者适当性管理办法》及配套指引，本资料仅面向华创证券客户中的金融机构专业投资者，请勿对本资料 进行任何形式的转发。若您不是华创证券客户中的金融机构专业投资者，请勿订阅、接收或使用本资料中的信息。本资料难 以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。感谢您的理解与配合。 本资料来自华创证券研究所已经发布的研究报告，若对报告的摘编产生歧义，应以报告发布当日的完整内容为 准。须注意的是，本资料仅代表报告发布当日的判 ...