Core Viewpoints - The article presents a dual perspective on the investment landscape for 2026, focusing on both financial conditions ("who holds the deposits") and economic realities ("spring water flows to the midstream") [3][4][5][6] - The year 2026 is anticipated to be a pivotal year for awakening the investment value of the Chinese stock market, breaking the stereotype of short-lived bull markets [6][8] Economic and Policy Outlook for 2026 - The nominal GDP growth rate for 2026 is projected to be around 4.5%, slightly higher than the estimated 4% for 2025 [15] - Fixed asset investment is expected to remain low, between 0% and 1%, with a neutral expectation of around 1% [16] - Consumption is anticipated to align with nominal GDP growth, while exports are expected to show resilience with a growth rate of around 5% [16][18] - The fiscal budget expenditure growth rate is likely to be set at around 5%, with an increase in government debt expected [17][18] Price Trends for 2026 - CPI year-on-year growth is expected to turn positive, but its investment significance may be limited [19][20] - PPI year-on-year growth is anticipated to show an upward trend, with the potential for a positive turnaround depending on economic conditions in the first half of 2026 [21][22] - Housing prices remain uncertain, with a focus on the relationship between mortgage rates and rental yields as a potential indicator for price stabilization [23][24][27] Midstream Economic Outlook - The midstream sector is expected to outperform in the next 3-6 months, with notable changes in profit margins for midstream companies, particularly in overseas markets [30][34] - The supply-demand dynamics in the midstream sector are shifting, with policies aimed at reducing internal competition benefiting this segment [35][36] - The midstream sector is seen as having strong potential due to its differentiation from upstream and downstream sectors, which are currently facing challenges [39][40] Financial Conditions and Deposit Distribution - The distribution of deposits will significantly influence market valuations and investment styles in 2026 [47][48] - M2 growth is expected to decline, impacting stock market valuations and the relative performance of different market segments [48][49] - The transfer of deposits from residents to enterprises or non-bank financial institutions will be crucial for driving economic activity and stock market engagement [52][53][60] Investment Insights and Conclusions - The article emphasizes a cautious yet optimistic outlook for the stock market, with a focus on safety margins and profit improvements [50][51] - The potential for a bull market in stocks is acknowledged, but the pace of growth may slow compared to previous years [87] - The article suggests that the investment landscape will require careful monitoring of economic indicators and policy developments to identify key turning points [51][88]

Group 1 - The article discusses the current economic landscape, highlighting a "policy intensive period" followed by a "data vacuum period" in the upcoming months [2][3] - The first phase involves a series of important policy meetings starting in December, including the Political Bureau meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference, which will accelerate policy implementation [2] - The second phase will see a lack of key economic data, leading to increased market activity but uncertainty about the economic outlook [3] Group 2 - The article identifies three major macroeconomic divergences: the divergence between export price index and domestic PPI, the contrasting performance of exports and real estate, and the stock market's reliance on valuation rather than earnings growth [4] - The core judgment is that the most certain economic recovery is likely to occur in the midstream manufacturing sector over the next 3-6 months, supported by four key changes in this sector [5] Group 3 - The four changes in midstream manufacturing include: a recovery in ROE for midstream manufacturers, overseas gross margins surpassing domestic margins, a significant proportion of overseas gross margins in midstream manufacturing, and the ongoing technological wave benefiting certain sectors [5][11] - The stability of midstream manufacturing is supported by two main factors: the stability of export demand and the robust performance of key product categories such as high-tech machinery and electronics [11][12] - The article concludes that the current cycle is unique, with midstream manufacturing potentially benefiting from overseas markets, leading to an independent recovery in profits and prices [12]

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 核心观点 展望 11 月，基数及政策前倾影响下，预计社融与 M2 增速回落，固投、地产同比或依然偏低，社零受补贴 类商品增速回落影响或依然偏弱。相对而言，预计出口与生产韧性较强。需要特别提示的是， CPI 或继续 上行，这或将营造良好的物价回升的氛围。 预计 CPI 同比从 0.2% 回升至 0.7% 左右。首先 ，本月 CPI 同比读数大幅回升，主因是食品价格扰动。去 年 11 月食品项环比为 -2.7% ，是过去十年最低；今年 11 月环比预计为 1.1% 。 其次，食品价格的波动 主要源于天气影响下的菜价 ，今年 10 月中下旬以后气温偏低、秋雨增多，局部地区遭受低温冷冻灾害或 暴雨洪涝灾害，导致部分蔬菜市场供应偏紧。这一情况并不具备持续性，据国家气候中心预测，今年冬季 我国大部地区气温接近常年同期到偏高，天气条件总体上有利于蔬菜生长和运输。 最后，最近两个月食品 价格偏高有利于提升明年 CPI 同比中枢。 今年 10-11 月份食品环比强于季节性，叠加今年二三季度 ...

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 李星宇（18810112501） 核心观点 11月全球大类资产总体表现为：人民币（0.65%）>全球债券（0.23%）>全球股票（0.06%）> 0%>大宗商品（-0.33%）>美元（-0.35%）。 报告摘要 十张图速览全球资产脉络 1、美元指数与VIX指数的90日滚动相关系数转入负区间 。美元指数与VIX指数之间的正相关性在过去一年多的时间里出现了脱钩的现象。过去VIX指数的上升往往 伴随着美元走强，然而过去一年多的时间里，美股波动率的增加反而频繁伴随美元走软，两者的90天滚动相关系数跌入了负区间。截至2025年11月底，美元指数 与VIX指数的90天滚动相关系数为-0.11，这一变化体现了美元在应对权益资产波动时的防御属性正在下降。 2、全球主要股票市场的估值与其盈利能力基本正相关 。全球主要股票市场的估值通常与盈利能力呈正相关。然而，美国股市表现出极高的估值溢价，其18.2%的 ROE水平获得了超过5倍的市净率，远超趋势线。相比之下，中国、韩国等地的股市估值则与其盈利能力基本匹配，处于趋势线附近。 ...

Group 1: Short-term Outlook - The midstream sector is expected to show better performance due to several new changes [2][3] - Static observation indicates that both potential and performance in the midstream sector are superior [2] - Dynamic observation suggests that machinery and electrical exports may experience high growth [2][3] Group 2: Mid-term Focus - The distribution of deposits is a key focus, with significant changes anticipated for 2026 [2][3] - CPI is expected to trend positively, while PPI's timing for turning positive remains uncertain [2][3] - Real estate prices are likely to experience low-level fluctuations, requiring further support [2][3] Group 3: Long-term Transformation - Enhancing consumption rates is crucial, with a focus on service consumption [2][3] - The export sector has considerable upward potential, driven by various factors [2][3] - The manufacturing sector needs to consider a "reasonable proportion" in the economic structure [2][3] Group 4: Investment Insights - The overall judgment on major asset classes suggests a preference for equities over bonds, continuing the rebalancing trend [3] - The internal structure of asset classes indicates opportunities and risks within equities and bonds [3] - International comparisons of asset classes highlight the value of stock allocations [3] Group 5: Potential Variables - The possibility of a tech bubble, particularly in the U.S. AI sector, is under consideration [3] - U.S. monetary policy may face dual variables, with inflation risks potentially halting rate cuts [3] - Infrastructure investment in China is expected to remain weak, with uncertainties surrounding policy changes [3] Group 6: Data Estimation - The macroeconomic outlook for key indicators suggests improvements in nominal GDP and consumer spending [3] - Export resilience and investment trends are critical for future economic performance [3] - Real estate and retail sectors are projected to remain weak, impacting overall economic growth [3]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of the midstream sector, highlighting four positive changes: recovery in profitability (ROE), focus on reducing supply through "anti-involution," increased overseas revenue and profit share, and benefits from the ongoing technological revolution [29][30][33][37] - The recovery of ROE in midstream manufacturing is noted, with a significant increase observed from Q1 to Q3 of 2025, indicating improved corporate profitability [29][30] - The midstream sector's investment growth is lagging behind demand growth, suggesting a potential balance in supply and demand dynamics [30][38] Group 2 - The article discusses the macroeconomic outlook, predicting a nominal GDP growth rate of 4.8-5.0% for 2026, with retail sales growth around 4.0% and exports maintaining a growth rate of approximately 5% [7][8] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to turn positive, with a projected annual growth rate of about 0.7% for 2026, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) is anticipated to remain negative but show signs of recovery [8][9] - The article highlights the importance of monitoring the distribution of deposits among different sectors, as it significantly influences future economic trends [64] Group 3 - The article identifies the midstream sector as having superior demand and potential compared to upstream and downstream sectors, with a demand growth rate of 9.6% and potential growth rate of 9% as of October [38][42] - The article predicts strong growth in China's electromechanical exports, driven by global monetary policy easing and increased demand for technology products [42][44][46] - The midstream sector's profitability is expected to continue improving, supported by favorable macroeconomic conditions and increased investment in technology [55][59] Group 4 - The article discusses the structural changes in M2 and its impact on the stock market, indicating that M2 growth may slow down in 2026, which could affect stock valuations [10][11] - The relationship between corporate and household deposits is analyzed, suggesting that a recovery in corporate deposits could positively influence stock market performance [12][13] - The article emphasizes the need for investors to focus on sectors with low valuations and high dividend yields, particularly in the midstream sector, where ROE improvement is anticipated [25][26]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand as a strategic foundation during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, focusing on boosting consumer spending and effective investment to counter external uncertainties and enhance economic growth [2][13]. Summary by Sections 1. Boosting Consumer Spending - Current Situation: China's consumer spending rate lags behind developed countries by 10-30 percentage points, particularly in service consumption [2]. - Short-term Measures: Focus on optimizing supply, innovating consumption scenarios, and removing unreasonable restrictions in the consumption sector [2]. - Long-term Goals: Enhance residents' income and consumption capacity, ensuring that income growth aligns with economic growth and labor productivity [2][13]. 2. Expanding Effective Investment - Infrastructure Investment: Maintain a moderate growth in infrastructure investment while avoiding excessive expansion [3]. - Investment Focus: Target major projects in urban renewal, strategic transportation corridors, new energy systems, and significant water conservancy projects, as well as investments in consumer-related sectors [3][13]. - Support Measures: Reform the investment and financing system, utilize new policy financial tools, and improve the pricing mechanisms in transportation and energy sectors to enhance investment returns [3][13]. 3. Recent Policy Developments - Consumption Policy: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released a plan to enhance the adaptability of supply and demand in consumer goods, aiming to establish three trillion-level consumption sectors and ten hundred-billion-level consumption hotspots by 2027 [4][11]. - Industry Meetings: The People's Bank of China held a meeting to combat speculative trading in virtual currencies, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology discussed regulations in the battery industry [4][11]. 4. National Development Goals - The article outlines the goal of achieving a high-quality development pattern where supply and consumption interact positively by 2030, with a gradual increase in consumption's contribution to economic growth [11][12]. - Specific sectors identified for growth include elderly products, smart connected vehicles, and consumer electronics, with a focus on addressing the needs of an aging population [12][13].

Economic Outlook - The macroeconomic WEI index has declined to 4.62% as of November 23, down from 5.42% the previous week, indicating a downward trend since late September [8][9] - Retail sales of passenger cars have seen a slight narrowing in decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 7% as of November 23, compared to 9% previously [2][13] - The real estate market continues to struggle, with residential sales dropping by 35% year-on-year in 67 cities as of November 29 [3][13] Trade and Exports - Port container throughput has rebounded significantly, with a 5.4% increase week-on-week as of November 23, and a year-on-year increase of 10% [22][23] - New export orders in China's manufacturing PMI rose to 47.6%, reflecting a notable increase of 1.7 percentage points from the previous month [24] Prices and Commodities - Prices of precious metals and agricultural products have risen, with COMEX gold reaching $4223.9 per ounce, up 3.4%, and LME copper at $10,985 per ton, up 2.7% [2][40] - Domestic agricultural prices have generally increased, with vegetable prices up 1.9% and egg prices up 1.2%, while pork prices fell by 0.4% [41][42] Infrastructure and Production - Infrastructure data remains weak, with cement dispatch rates at 33.4%, unchanged from the previous week and down from 36.5% year-on-year [15] - The asphalt plant operating rate has increased to 28%, up 3 percentage points from the previous week, but still down 4.7 percentage points year-on-year [15] Interest Rates and Debt - Interest rates remain relatively stable, with 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year government bond yields reported at 1.4017%, 1.6183%, and 1.8412%, respectively [55] - The issuance of special bonds to support infrastructure projects has been significant, with plans for 1.5 trillion yuan in long-term bonds to support nearly 3,000 projects [45]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recovery of the manufacturing PMI in November, highlighting improvements in export orders and construction sector indicators, suggesting a positive trend in economic activity [2][4][12]. Group 1: Changes in Exports and Construction Chain - Export orders index rose to 47.6% in November, up from 45.9% in the previous month, indicating a 1.7% increase, with overall new orders index at 49.2%, up 0.4% [5][12]. - The construction sector shows improvement in expectations, employment, and orders, with the business activity expectation index for construction rising to 57.9%, the highest since April 2024 [6][16]. - New orders index for construction was 46.1% in November, better than 43.5% in the same month last year, indicating a consistent improvement since September [7][16]. Group 2: Manufacturing PMI Data - The manufacturing PMI for November was 49.2%, slightly up from 49.0% in October, with the production index at 50.0%, indicating a recovery [2][26]. - The new export orders index was 47.6%, reflecting a positive trend in external demand, while the employment index was at 48.4%, showing slight improvement [3][26]. - The comprehensive PMI output index decreased to 49.7%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a mixed outlook for overall economic activity [29].

Group 1: Key Economic Data Review - In the US, September durable goods orders were revised up to 3% from 2.9%, with a preliminary month-on-month value of 0.5% [12] - September retail sales increased by 0.2%, below the expected 0.4%, and the previous value was 0.6% [12] - The Consumer Confidence Index for November was reported at 88.7, significantly lower than the expected 93.3 [12] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for September showed a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, matching expectations, while the year-on-year figure was revised up to 2.7% [12] Group 2: Upcoming Economic Data - Key upcoming US economic data includes the November ISM Manufacturing PMI on December 1, and the November ISM Services PMI on December 3 [14] - In the Eurozone, the October unemployment rate and November CPI preliminary value are set to be released on December 2 [14] Group 3: Weekly Economic Index - The US Weekly Economic Index (WEI) decreased to 2.1% from 2.33% in the previous week, indicating a slight economic slowdown [17] - Conversely, Germany's Weekly Activity Index (WAI) increased to 0.23%, showing continued economic recovery [17] Group 4: Demand Insights - The US Redbook retail sales year-on-year growth slightly declined to 5.9% from 6.1% in the previous week [20] - Global flight numbers showed a year-on-year growth of 3.3%, down from 8.5% the previous week [22] - The US mortgage rate for a 30-year fixed loan decreased to 6.23% from 6.26% [25] Group 5: Employment Data - Initial jobless claims in the US were reported at 216,000, better than the expected 225,000 [28] - Continuing claims rose to 1.96 million, up from a previous value of 1.953 million [29] Group 6: Price Trends - Global commodity prices increased, with the RJ/CRB commodity price index rising by 1.3% [30] - US gasoline retail prices slightly decreased to $2.94 per gallon, down 0.1% from the previous week [30] Group 7: Financial Conditions - Financial conditions in the US and Eurozone showed marginal easing, with the Bloomberg financial conditions index for the US rising to 0.629 [32] - Offshore dollar liquidity improved slightly, with swap points for USD/JPY and USD/EUR increasing [34] - Long-term bond spreads narrowed, with the 10-year bond spread between Italy and Germany decreasing to 71.4 basis points [36]