Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current economic trends in China, highlighting both positive and negative indicators in various sectors, including macroeconomic activity, real estate, consumer goods, infrastructure, trade, and commodity prices. Group 1: Economic Activity - The Huachuang Macro WEI index increased to 8.15% as of January 18, up from 5.28% the previous week, indicating a recovery in economic activity, potentially influenced by the timing of the Spring Festival [2] - The weekly container throughput at Chinese ports showed a slight recovery, with a 0.6% increase week-on-week and a 7.6% year-on-year increase as of January 19 [22] - Movie box office revenues improved significantly, with a year-on-year decline of only 23% as of January 18, compared to a 55.3% decline in early November [8] Group 2: Real Estate and Consumer Goods - The sales area of commercial housing continued to decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 39% in 67 cities as of January 24, worsening from a 35% decline earlier in the month [3] - Retail sales of passenger cars remained negative, with a year-on-year decline of 22% as of January 18, although this was an improvement from a 32% decline previously [3] - The average land premium rate in 100 cities was 1.59% as of January 18, showing low volatility [12] Group 3: Infrastructure and Production - Infrastructure activity remains weak, with the cement dispatch rate falling to 26.4% as of January 23, down 2.3 percentage points from the previous week [18] - The operating rate of asphalt plants slightly decreased to 26.8% as of January 22, down 0.4 percentage points week-on-week [18] - Coal throughput at Qinhuangdao port showed a year-on-year decline of 4% as of January 16 [18] Group 4: Trade - Container throughput at Chinese ports showed a slight recovery, with a year-on-year increase of 7.6% as of January 19 [22] - The number of cargo ships from China to the U.S. decreased by 28.8% year-on-year as of January 23 [23] - South Korea's exports increased by 14.9% year-on-year in early January, with semiconductor exports rising significantly [21] Group 5: Commodity Prices - Commodity prices have generally risen, with gold prices reaching $4936 per ounce, up 7.5%, and oil prices increasing to $61.6 per barrel, up 2.7% [41] - Agricultural product prices have also increased, with egg prices rising by 7.2% and pork prices by 2.3% [42] - The lithium carbonate price surged by 14.9%, reflecting strong demand in the market [44] Group 6: Interest Rates and Fiscal Policy - As of January 23, the funding rates showed slight increases, with DR001 at 1.3983% and DR007 at 1.4935% [4] - The fiscal policy for 2026 aims to increase total spending while optimizing the structure and improving efficiency, with a focus on boosting consumption and ensuring financial stability [45][46]

文 ： 华创证券首席经济学家 张瑜 执业证号：S0360518090001 联系人： 李星宇（18810112501） 核心观点 通过对全球主要市场过去二十年来夏普比率的复盘，我们发现：1）2025年中国股市以1.72的夏普比率位居主要市场首位，而且2025年的高夏普比率是建立在年 化波动率大幅收敛的基础上，这种"低波稳进"的特征，使中国市场在横向对比中极具配置吸引力。2） 对比中美股市，过去二十年间中国和美国股市夏普比率 均值分别为0.20和0.85，中国股市夏普比率历史中枢显著长期低于美国股市；但2025年中美夏普比率分别为1.72和0.72，中国股市夏普比率自2020年之后首 次超越美国 。3）过去二十年来全球股市夏普比率均展现出均值回归属性，但是中国、越南等新兴市场股市夏普比率的波动率普遍大于韩国、欧洲等发达市 场。4）跨国经验表明，居民金融资产持股比例与市场的长期夏普比率高度正相关，市场的夏普比率越高，居民金融资产持股比例越高。5）如果中国股市在 2025年呈现的"高效率、低波动"特征能够成为趋势，那么这种"新常态"将对重塑居民端对于权益资产的信心具有重要意义。 报告摘要 全球视野下的夏普比率复盘与 ...

文 ： 华创证券首席经济学家 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 李星宇（18810112501） 前言 《 黄金"狂想曲"——五种极端情形下的金价推演 》（2025.3.31） 美国既袭委内瑞拉、又图格陵兰岛之际，丹麦养老基金宣布将退出美国国债市场，加拿大总理卡尼访华时称已准备迎接"世界新秩序"…… 当今全球，"安全"、"撕裂"和"秩 序"风声鹤唳，旧秩序正逐渐式微，而新秩序建立仍挑战重重 。 而正如我们在2023年12月发布的报告《金：百年，十年，明年》中指出的，" 只要 秩序 、经济、政治、军事变局任一发酵，黄金就可能有新逻辑， 战略级别趋势看多 "；2025 年3月，我们在报告《黄金"狂想曲"——五种极端情形下的金价推演》中再次提示： "全球秩序重构的路径依然可见度较低，中期（5-10年）需战略重视黄金的上涨脉冲"，并 对 新兴市场增储、加密资产崩塌、储备货币易主、地缘冲突升级、全球金本位复辟等五大极端情形 展开想象。 不到一年，当初的"狂想"正在一步步变成今天的"现实"、不断印证着我们这篇报告的想法， 我们再次推荐、并重发这篇八个月之前的报告 ，以期给投资者更多启发： 【十年战 ...

文 ： 华创证券首席经济学家 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 李星宇（18810112501） 前言 美国既袭委内瑞拉、又图格陵兰岛之际，丹麦养老基金宣布将退出美国国债市场，加拿大总理卡尼访华时称已准备迎接"世界新秩序"…… 当今全球，"安全"、"撕裂"和"秩 序"风声鹤唳，旧秩序正逐渐式微，而新秩序建立仍挑战重重 。 不到一年，当初的"狂想"正在一步步变成今天的"现实"、不断印证着我们这篇报告的想法， 我们再次推荐、并重发这篇八个月之前的报告 ，以期给投资者更多启发： 《 黄金"狂想曲"——五种极端情形下的金价推演 》（2025.3.31） 【十年战略看多黄金系列报告】 黄金系列一：20231218-金：百年，十年，明年 黄金系列二：20240531-黄金的"非寻常"定价 而正如我们在2023年12月发布的报告《金：百年，十年，明年》中指出的，" 只要 秩序 、经济、政治、军事变局任一发酵，黄金就可能有新逻辑， 战略级别趋势看多 "；2025 年3月，我们在报告《黄金"狂想曲"——五种极端情形下的金价推演》中再次提示： "全球秩序重构的路径依然可见度较低，中期（5-10年）需战略重 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report discusses four macroeconomic counterforces that are expected to strengthen by 2025, potentially leading to a healthier economic environment in 2026, characterized by rising prices, improved corporate profits, and stable employment and consumption [2][4]. Group 1: Four Strengthening Counterforces - **Economic Structure**: By 2025, the new economy is projected to account for 20.1% of the economy, surpassing the old economy at 19.7%, marking the first time this has occurred [4][13]. - **Household Wealth**: Financial assets are expected to exceed residential assets by 2026, driven by growth in deposits, non-deposit financial investments, and stock market valuations [5][15]. - **Spending Willingness**: Despite a decline in household spending inclination, the combined spending willingness of three sectors is anticipated to rise from 107.2% in 2023 to 107.6% in 2025 [7][16]. - **Supply-Demand Imbalance**: The supply-demand contradiction in the midstream manufacturing sector is rapidly easing, with midstream demand growth projected at 8.4% for 2025, outperforming upstream and downstream sectors [8][20]. Group 2: Economic Data Analysis for Q4 - **GDP Growth**: In Q4, GDP growth was 4.5%, down from 4.8%, with a cumulative annual growth rate of 5.0% [10][22]. - **Investment Trends**: Fixed asset investment saw a significant decline of -13.2% in Q4, with real estate sales area decreasing by -17.0% [23][50]. - **Consumer Spending**: Retail sales growth in December was 0.9%, down from 1.3%, indicating a slowdown in consumer spending [31][38]. - **Employment Stability**: The urban unemployment rate remained stable at 5.1% in December, with a total of 30.115 million migrant workers, reflecting a slight increase of 0.5% year-on-year [36][30]. Group 3: December Economic Data Insights - **Production Strength**: December saw industrial output growth of 5.2%, with service sector production index at 5.0% [31][46]. - **Real Estate Market**: The real estate sector experienced a downturn, with a sales area decline of -15.6% in December and a significant investment drop of -35.8% [43][44]. - **Price Trends**: In December, the PPI decreased by -1.9%, while the CPI rose to 0.8%, indicating mixed price pressures in the economy [34][35].

Core Viewpoint - Multiple economic data from the US exceeded expectations last week, including new home sales, existing home sales, retail sales month-on-month, New York Fed manufacturing PMI, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, industrial production month-on-month, initial and continuing unemployment claims. Inflation data was generally in line with expectations, including CPI and PPI [2][4]. Group 1: Recent Economic Data and Events - In the US, several data points exceeded expectations, including new home sales, existing home sales, retail sales month-on-month, New York Fed manufacturing PMI, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, and industrial production month-on-month. Inflation data, including CPI and PPI, was generally in line with expectations [4][14]. - In the Eurozone, industrial production month-on-month for November and the January Sentix investor confidence index exceeded expectations, while the final inflation values for France, Italy, and Germany in December met expectations [5][14]. - In Japan, the current account surplus exceeded expectations, and the PPI year-on-year was in line with expectations [5][14]. Group 2: Upcoming Economic Data and Events - Key upcoming economic data to watch includes the Japanese manufacturing PMI to be released on January 23 at 8:30 AM, the Bank of Japan's policy decision around noon to afternoon, the Eurozone manufacturing PMI at 5:00 PM, and the S&P US manufacturing PMI at 10:45 PM on January 23 [6][16]. Group 3: Weekly Economic Activity Index - The US economic activity index remained stable, with the WEI index at 2.45% for the week ending January 10, compared to 2.08% the previous week [7][18]. - The German economic activity index showed a downward trend, with the WAI index at 0.03% for the week ending January 11, compared to -0.01% the previous week [8][18]. Group 4: Demand - In consumption, the US Redbook commercial retail year-on-year growth rate declined, with a reading of 5.7% for the week ending January 9, down from 7.1% the previous week [9][21]. - In real estate, US mortgage rates have decreased, with the 30-year mortgage rate at 6.06% on January 15, down from 6.16% the previous week. Mortgage applications rebounded, with the MBA market composite index at 348 for the week ending January 9, reflecting a 28.5% increase week-on-week [9][24]. Group 5: Employment - Initial and continuing unemployment claims in the US decreased, with initial claims falling to 198,000 for the week ending January 10, down from 208,000 the previous week, and continuing claims dropping from 1.914 million to 1.884 million [10][28]. - The number of job vacancies remained stable, with the INDEED job vacancy index averaging 105.34 as of January 9, slightly below the December average of 105.55 [11][29]. Group 6: Prices - Commodity prices showed a volatile recovery, with the RJ/CRB commodity price index increasing by 0.2% week-on-week as of January 16, following a 1.2% increase the previous week. US gasoline prices continued to decline, averaging $2.67 per gallon for the week ending January 12, down 0.6% week-on-week [12][31]. Group 7: Financial Conditions - US financial conditions have marginally eased, with the Bloomberg financial conditions index at 0.848 as of January 16, compared to 0.863 the previous week. In contrast, Eurozone financial conditions have tightened, with the index at 1.671 [38]. - Offshore dollar liquidity has marginally eased, with the three-month swap basis for the yen against the dollar at -15.4 pips, improving from -17 pips the previous week [40]. - The spread-to-worst for high-yield dollar corporate bonds has narrowed, with the J.P. Morgan global BB&B rated dollar corporate bond spread at 243 basis points as of January 16, down from 247.8 basis points the previous day [43]. Group 8: Fiscal - As of January 15, cumulative federal funding expenditures in the US were approximately $319.4 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 2.5% compared to $327.6 billion during the same period last year [50].

文 ： 华创证券首席经济学家 张瑜 执业证号：S0360518090001 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 韩港（微信 HGK1366） 报告摘要 首先，明确口径。国家电网"以投资建设运营电网为核心业务"，但国家电网主要公布电网投资数据，固定资 产投资数据仅零星公布，从 2021 年数据来看，固定资产投资、电网投资分别为 4972 、 4730 亿元，二者 近乎等价。其次，据新华社报道，十五五时期国家电网固定资产投资预计增长 40% ，作为对比，十四五时 期，电网投资约 2.77 万亿、可比增速为 16.4% （未公布固定资产投资数据）， 即十五五时期 40% 的投 资增速较十四五（ 16.4% 左右）有较大提升。 第二，可能的考量？ 参考两方面信息： 1 ） 2025 年 12 月，国家电网公司党组会议上提及"坚决把党中央 扩大内需的决策 部署 落到实处，充分发挥电网基础支撑和投资拉动作用，以更大的力度、更实的举措助力扩内需、稳增长"； 2 ） 2025 年 12 月国家发展改革委、国家能源局印发《关于促进电网高质量发展的指导意见》，提及"加大 电网投资力度。 落实国家重大战略部署，适度超前、不 ...

文 ： 华创证券首席经济学家 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 袁玲玲（微信 Yuen43） 报告摘要 近一周，主要关注中纪委全会对全年反腐定调，参考点评 《中纪委全会的四大关注点》。 部分重点 内容包括： 1 、关注换届纪律： 总书记在全会讲话，提出" 今年地方将开始换届，要把真正忠诚可靠、表里如 一、担当尽责的好干部用起来 ……党的自我革命重在治权，把权力关进制度笼子是新时代全面从严治 党的一项重要任务"。会议公报提出，" 严明政治纪律、换届纪律，坚决清除心怀二志、言行不一 的'两面人' " ，" 坚决纠治临近换届等待观望不作为 ，换届后急功近利'翻烧饼'、搞'政绩工程'等突 出问题"。 2 、重点行业及领域 ：会议公报提出，"深化整治金融、国企、能源、教育、学会协会、开发区和招 标投标等重点领域腐败"，"对 违规吃喝 、违规收送礼品礼金等易发多发问题深化整治……"，"深挖 细查预期收益、约定代持、政商'旋转门'等新型腐败和隐性腐败"。 近一周，其他值得关注的政策： 1 、央行加码结构性货币政策 ： 1 月 15 日，央行宣布若干货币政策，以结构性为主：下调各类结构 性货币政策工具 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the export structure of China in 2025, highlighting the significant contributions from emerging markets and the contrasting performance of developed markets, particularly the U.S. and non-U.S. regions [2][16]. Group 1: Regional Structure Characteristics - Emerging markets are showing significant contributions, while the internal dynamics of developed markets, particularly between the U.S. and non-U.S. regions, are largely offsetting each other [5][17]. - In 2025, the share of exports to emerging markets is projected to be 49.1%, an increase of approximately 2.5 percentage points from 2024. Exports to the U.S. are expected to decline to 11.1%, down about 3.5 percentage points, while exports to non-U.S. developed markets will rise to 39.8%, up about 1 percentage point [17][18]. Group 2: Commodity Structure Characteristics By Usage - Intermediate goods are expected to contribute significantly, while consumer goods are projected to have a negative contribution, and capital goods are expected to remain stable. From 2017 to the first 11 months of 2025, the share of intermediate goods in exports is expected to rise from 41.9% to 47.4%, while consumer goods will decline from 36.6% to 28.7% [6][22]. - The contribution rate of intermediate goods to export growth is expected to increase from 55.8% in 2018 to 85% in 2025, while consumer goods' contribution will drop from 24.7% to -34% [6][22]. By Category - Four types of goods are identified based on economic conditions: 1. **Sustained Growth Goods**: High export growth over the past two years, including transportation equipment, pharmaceuticals, and machinery [7][25]. 2. **Reversal Goods**: Poor performance in 2024 but better in 2025, such as non-metallic products and chemicals [7][26]. 3. **Weak Sustained Goods**: Consistently low growth, including umbrellas and toys [7][26]. 4. **Diminishing Momentum Goods**: Good performance in 2024 but poor in 2025, including furniture and textiles [7][26]. Group 3: Key Regional Export Commodity Structure - The analysis focuses on the export commodity structure to developed markets (U.S. and Europe) and emerging markets. In 2024, exports to these regions accounted for about 67% of China's total exports [28]. - In the U.S., there is an overall decline, with intermediate goods showing some resilience [29]. - In the EU, intermediate and capital goods are expected to balance each other, while consumer goods will negatively impact growth [35]. - In ASEAN, intermediate goods are expected to see significant growth, while consumer goods will contribute negatively [39]. - In Africa, there is expected to be overall growth, with capital and intermediate goods each contributing about 40% [43]. - In the Middle East, growth is expected to be balanced across all types of goods [49]. - In Latin America, intermediate goods are projected to grow by over 60%, with consumer and capital goods showing slight growth [54]. - In Central Asia (excluding Russia), the contribution of intermediate and capital goods is expected to be 7:4, with consumer goods negatively impacting growth [59].

Economic Outlook - The real estate sales decline is narrowing, with residential sales area in 67 cities down by 23% year-on-year as of January 16, compared to a 33% decline earlier in the month [2] - The OECD composite leading indicator for G7 countries has slightly rebounded to 0.60% in December, indicating potential stabilization or improvement in China's export growth by May [2][25] - Commodity prices are rising, with gold at $4,590 per ounce (up 2.6%) and crude oil prices increasing to $59.4 per barrel (up 0.5%) [2][44] Economic Indicators - The Huachuang macro WEI index has decreased to 5.75% as of January 11, down 0.85 percentage points from the previous week, indicating a decline in economic activity since late September [3][9] - Retail sales of passenger cars have seen a significant decline of 32% year-on-year as of January 11, compared to a 14% decline in December [3][14] - The operating rates in most industries are weaker than the same period last year, with notable declines in construction and industrial production [3][19] Trade and Exports - The OECD leading indicator suggests a potential increase in China's export growth by May, as it typically leads export trends by about five months [25] - China's export volume has shown mixed results, with a decrease in the number of cargo ships to the U.S. by 30.2% year-on-year as of January 17 [27] Prices and Inflation - Commodity prices are generally rising, with significant increases in lithium carbonate prices (up 12.7%) and polysilicon prices (up 7.5%) [44][45] - The average land premium rate in 100 cities has decreased to 1.39% as of January 11, down from 1.64% in December [14] Interest Rates and Bonds - As of January 16, the yields on 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year government bonds are 1.2424%, 1.6099%, and 1.8424%, respectively, reflecting slight declines from the previous week [4][57] - The government is planning to issue 850 billion yuan in new local bonds, including 644 billion yuan in special bonds, to support debt clearance efforts [49][50]