文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 报告正文 一、 篇幅"短"——篇幅非常短，往往意味着经济工作会议大概率几天内召开 核心内容篇幅极短： 本次政治局会议通稿与经济相关的核心内容仅 934 字，接近历史最低水平（ 2024 年为 924 字）。 会议召开的时间预判 ：根据以往经验，政治局会议先开定调，经济工作会议后开部署。通稿篇幅越短，通常意味着经 济工作会议有可能将在 2-4 天内召开。 政策细节披露时间 ：预计更多政策细节将在几天后的经济工作会议通稿中公布（篇幅通常为 4000-5000 字）。 信息解读建议： 政治局通稿信息颗粒度较粗，属于定调性质，不宜过度解读。 二、 "优化供给"——反内卷进入"弱化提法，强化做法"的务实阶段 （一）政策提法变化： 本次通稿强调"持续扩大内需、优化供给，做优增量、盘活存量，因地制宜发展新质生产力， 纵深推进全国统一大市场建设"。 （二）反内卷进入务实阶段： "优化供给"是大方向，核心之一是"反内卷"。 当前"反内卷"已从强化提法转向强化做法，进入务实阶段。 （三）具体举措： 1 、 统一大市场建设 。 2 、 ...

Core Viewpoints - The article presents a dual perspective on the investment landscape for 2026, focusing on both financial conditions ("who holds the deposits") and economic realities ("spring water flows to the midstream") [3][4][5][6] - The year 2026 is anticipated to be a pivotal year for awakening the investment value of the Chinese stock market, breaking the stereotype of short-lived bull markets [6][8] Economic and Policy Outlook for 2026 - The nominal GDP growth rate for 2026 is projected to be around 4.5%, slightly higher than the estimated 4% for 2025 [15] - Fixed asset investment is expected to remain low, between 0% and 1%, with a neutral expectation of around 1% [16] - Consumption is anticipated to align with nominal GDP growth, while exports are expected to show resilience with a growth rate of around 5% [16][18] - The fiscal budget expenditure growth rate is likely to be set at around 5%, with an increase in government debt expected [17][18] Price Trends for 2026 - CPI year-on-year growth is expected to turn positive, but its investment significance may be limited [19][20] - PPI year-on-year growth is anticipated to show an upward trend, with the potential for a positive turnaround depending on economic conditions in the first half of 2026 [21][22] - Housing prices remain uncertain, with a focus on the relationship between mortgage rates and rental yields as a potential indicator for price stabilization [23][24][27] Midstream Economic Outlook - The midstream sector is expected to outperform in the next 3-6 months, with notable changes in profit margins for midstream companies, particularly in overseas markets [30][34] - The supply-demand dynamics in the midstream sector are shifting, with policies aimed at reducing internal competition benefiting this segment [35][36] - The midstream sector is seen as having strong potential due to its differentiation from upstream and downstream sectors, which are currently facing challenges [39][40] Financial Conditions and Deposit Distribution - The distribution of deposits will significantly influence market valuations and investment styles in 2026 [47][48] - M2 growth is expected to decline, impacting stock market valuations and the relative performance of different market segments [48][49] - The transfer of deposits from residents to enterprises or non-bank financial institutions will be crucial for driving economic activity and stock market engagement [52][53][60] Investment Insights and Conclusions - The article emphasizes a cautious yet optimistic outlook for the stock market, with a focus on safety margins and profit improvements [50][51] - The potential for a bull market in stocks is acknowledged, but the pace of growth may slow compared to previous years [87] - The article suggests that the investment landscape will require careful monitoring of economic indicators and policy developments to identify key turning points [51][88]

Group 1 - The article discusses the current economic landscape, highlighting a "policy intensive period" followed by a "data vacuum period" in the upcoming months [2][3] - The first phase involves a series of important policy meetings starting in December, including the Political Bureau meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference, which will accelerate policy implementation [2] - The second phase will see a lack of key economic data, leading to increased market activity but uncertainty about the economic outlook [3] Group 2 - The article identifies three major macroeconomic divergences: the divergence between export price index and domestic PPI, the contrasting performance of exports and real estate, and the stock market's reliance on valuation rather than earnings growth [4] - The core judgment is that the most certain economic recovery is likely to occur in the midstream manufacturing sector over the next 3-6 months, supported by four key changes in this sector [5] Group 3 - The four changes in midstream manufacturing include: a recovery in ROE for midstream manufacturers, overseas gross margins surpassing domestic margins, a significant proportion of overseas gross margins in midstream manufacturing, and the ongoing technological wave benefiting certain sectors [5][11] - The stability of midstream manufacturing is supported by two main factors: the stability of export demand and the robust performance of key product categories such as high-tech machinery and electronics [11][12] - The article concludes that the current cycle is unique, with midstream manufacturing potentially benefiting from overseas markets, leading to an independent recovery in profits and prices [12]

Core Viewpoint - The economic outlook for November indicates a decline in social financing and M2 growth rates, with fixed asset investment and real estate remaining low year-on-year. Consumer spending is expected to be weak, influenced by the decline in subsidy-related goods, while exports and production show resilience. CPI is anticipated to rise, creating a favorable environment for price recovery [2][3]. Group 1: Price Trends - CPI is expected to rise from 0.2% to around 0.7% year-on-year, primarily due to fluctuations in food prices, which are influenced by weather conditions affecting vegetable supply [3][10]. - The recent increase in food prices is likely to elevate the CPI baseline for next year, with the expected CPI tail effect for next year around 0%, higher than this year's -0.4% [3][11]. Group 2: Production and Exports - Industrial production is projected to grow at a rate of approximately 5.3% in November, supported by external demand [4][12]. - Exports are expected to increase by around 5% year-on-year in November, driven by a low base effect and resilient external demand, with manufacturing PMI new export orders showing improvement [4][13][14]. Group 3: Fixed Asset Investment and Real Estate - Fixed asset investment is anticipated to decline by about 2.4% year-to-date, with manufacturing investment down to 1.7% and real estate investment down to 15.5% [4][17]. - Real estate sales are expected to decrease by around 20% in November, with cumulative sales area down by 8.1% year-to-date [4][18]. Group 4: Consumer Spending - Retail sales growth is projected to be around 2.6% in November, with essential consumption growing at 4.0% and subsidy-related items declining by 3.0% [4][22]. - The automotive sector is showing weakness, with retail sales down by 11.6% year-on-year in November [4][23]. Group 5: Financial Indicators - New social financing is expected to be around 1.6 trillion yuan in November, a decrease of 650 billion yuan compared to the same period last year, with the growth rate of social financing stock expected to fall to about 8.3% [4][24]. - M2 growth is projected at around 8.0%, while M1 is expected to grow by approximately 5.6% [4][24].

Core Viewpoints - The overall performance of major asset classes in November shows that the Chinese Yuan (0.65%) outperformed global bonds (0.23%), global stocks (0.06%), commodities (-0.33%), and the US Dollar (-0.35%) [2] Group 1: Global Asset Overview - The correlation coefficient between the US Dollar Index and the VIX Index has turned negative, indicating a decoupling phenomenon where increased volatility in US stocks is now often accompanied by a weakening dollar [4][12] - Global stock market valuations are generally positively correlated with profitability, but the US market shows a significant valuation premium with an ROE of 18.2% corresponding to a price-to-book ratio exceeding 5 times, while markets like China and South Korea align more closely with their profitability [5][15] - The proportion of equity allocation in household financial assets across countries is positively correlated with stock market Sharpe ratios, with a regression indicating that a 0.1 unit change in Sharpe ratio leads to a 1.56 percentage point increase in equity allocation [6][16] Group 2: Fund Manager Behavior - Global fund managers have increased their allocations to defensive sectors such as healthcare, bonds, and essential consumer goods, while reducing exposure to discretionary sectors and regions like the UK and Eurozone [7][18] - The yield on UK government bonds is closely related to the relative performance of large-cap versus small-cap stocks, with rising yields favoring large-cap stocks due to their resilience in uncertain economic conditions [8][21] Group 3: Market Volatility and Trends - Nvidia's historical volatility has exceeded the average of Russell 2000 constituents, reflecting significant uncertainty in large-cap tech stocks amid concerns over an "AI bubble" and competition from self-developed chips by clients like Google [9][25] - Concerns over increased issuance of Japanese government bonds have driven the 40-year bond yield to a historical high of 3.745%, raising fears of worsening inflation and debt burdens [10][28] - A shortage of physical silver has driven spot silver prices to a historical high of $56.5 per ounce, with a nearly 90% increase year-to-date, exacerbated by supply constraints and geopolitical concerns [11][31] Group 4: Fund Flows and Currency Trends - Since September 2025, there has been a reversal in global fund flows into the Chinese stock market, with net inflows of $176 million, $170 million, and $125 million in September, October, and November respectively, indicating a recovery in investor confidence [12][34] - The one-year risk reversal options for offshore RMB have dropped to the lowest level since 2011, indicating a new phase in the offshore RMB options market where the costs of hedging against appreciation and depreciation risks are balanced [13][39]

Group 1: Short-term Outlook - The midstream sector is expected to show better performance due to several new changes [2][3] - Static observation indicates that both potential and performance in the midstream sector are superior [2] - Dynamic observation suggests that machinery and electrical exports may experience high growth [2][3] Group 2: Mid-term Focus - The distribution of deposits is a key focus, with significant changes anticipated for 2026 [2][3] - CPI is expected to trend positively, while PPI's timing for turning positive remains uncertain [2][3] - Real estate prices are likely to experience low-level fluctuations, requiring further support [2][3] Group 3: Long-term Transformation - Enhancing consumption rates is crucial, with a focus on service consumption [2][3] - The export sector has considerable upward potential, driven by various factors [2][3] - The manufacturing sector needs to consider a "reasonable proportion" in the economic structure [2][3] Group 4: Investment Insights - The overall judgment on major asset classes suggests a preference for equities over bonds, continuing the rebalancing trend [3] - The internal structure of asset classes indicates opportunities and risks within equities and bonds [3] - International comparisons of asset classes highlight the value of stock allocations [3] Group 5: Potential Variables - The possibility of a tech bubble, particularly in the U.S. AI sector, is under consideration [3] - U.S. monetary policy may face dual variables, with inflation risks potentially halting rate cuts [3] - Infrastructure investment in China is expected to remain weak, with uncertainties surrounding policy changes [3] Group 6: Data Estimation - The macroeconomic outlook for key indicators suggests improvements in nominal GDP and consumer spending [3] - Export resilience and investment trends are critical for future economic performance [3] - Real estate and retail sectors are projected to remain weak, impacting overall economic growth [3]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of the midstream sector, highlighting four positive changes: recovery in profitability (ROE), focus on reducing supply through "anti-involution," increased overseas revenue and profit share, and benefits from the ongoing technological revolution [29][30][33][37] - The recovery of ROE in midstream manufacturing is noted, with a significant increase observed from Q1 to Q3 of 2025, indicating improved corporate profitability [29][30] - The midstream sector's investment growth is lagging behind demand growth, suggesting a potential balance in supply and demand dynamics [30][38] Group 2 - The article discusses the macroeconomic outlook, predicting a nominal GDP growth rate of 4.8-5.0% for 2026, with retail sales growth around 4.0% and exports maintaining a growth rate of approximately 5% [7][8] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to turn positive, with a projected annual growth rate of about 0.7% for 2026, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) is anticipated to remain negative but show signs of recovery [8][9] - The article highlights the importance of monitoring the distribution of deposits among different sectors, as it significantly influences future economic trends [64] Group 3 - The article identifies the midstream sector as having superior demand and potential compared to upstream and downstream sectors, with a demand growth rate of 9.6% and potential growth rate of 9% as of October [38][42] - The article predicts strong growth in China's electromechanical exports, driven by global monetary policy easing and increased demand for technology products [42][44][46] - The midstream sector's profitability is expected to continue improving, supported by favorable macroeconomic conditions and increased investment in technology [55][59] Group 4 - The article discusses the structural changes in M2 and its impact on the stock market, indicating that M2 growth may slow down in 2026, which could affect stock valuations [10][11] - The relationship between corporate and household deposits is analyzed, suggesting that a recovery in corporate deposits could positively influence stock market performance [12][13] - The article emphasizes the need for investors to focus on sectors with low valuations and high dividend yields, particularly in the midstream sector, where ROE improvement is anticipated [25][26]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand as a strategic foundation during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, focusing on boosting consumer spending and effective investment to counter external uncertainties and enhance economic growth [2][13]. Summary by Sections 1. Boosting Consumer Spending - Current Situation: China's consumer spending rate lags behind developed countries by 10-30 percentage points, particularly in service consumption [2]. - Short-term Measures: Focus on optimizing supply, innovating consumption scenarios, and removing unreasonable restrictions in the consumption sector [2]. - Long-term Goals: Enhance residents' income and consumption capacity, ensuring that income growth aligns with economic growth and labor productivity [2][13]. 2. Expanding Effective Investment - Infrastructure Investment: Maintain a moderate growth in infrastructure investment while avoiding excessive expansion [3]. - Investment Focus: Target major projects in urban renewal, strategic transportation corridors, new energy systems, and significant water conservancy projects, as well as investments in consumer-related sectors [3][13]. - Support Measures: Reform the investment and financing system, utilize new policy financial tools, and improve the pricing mechanisms in transportation and energy sectors to enhance investment returns [3][13]. 3. Recent Policy Developments - Consumption Policy: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released a plan to enhance the adaptability of supply and demand in consumer goods, aiming to establish three trillion-level consumption sectors and ten hundred-billion-level consumption hotspots by 2027 [4][11]. - Industry Meetings: The People's Bank of China held a meeting to combat speculative trading in virtual currencies, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology discussed regulations in the battery industry [4][11]. 4. National Development Goals - The article outlines the goal of achieving a high-quality development pattern where supply and consumption interact positively by 2030, with a gradual increase in consumption's contribution to economic growth [11][12]. - Specific sectors identified for growth include elderly products, smart connected vehicles, and consumer electronics, with a focus on addressing the needs of an aging population [12][13].

Economic Outlook - The macroeconomic WEI index has declined to 4.62% as of November 23, down from 5.42% the previous week, indicating a downward trend since late September [8][9] - Retail sales of passenger cars have seen a slight narrowing in decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 7% as of November 23, compared to 9% previously [2][13] - The real estate market continues to struggle, with residential sales dropping by 35% year-on-year in 67 cities as of November 29 [3][13] Trade and Exports - Port container throughput has rebounded significantly, with a 5.4% increase week-on-week as of November 23, and a year-on-year increase of 10% [22][23] - New export orders in China's manufacturing PMI rose to 47.6%, reflecting a notable increase of 1.7 percentage points from the previous month [24] Prices and Commodities - Prices of precious metals and agricultural products have risen, with COMEX gold reaching $4223.9 per ounce, up 3.4%, and LME copper at $10,985 per ton, up 2.7% [2][40] - Domestic agricultural prices have generally increased, with vegetable prices up 1.9% and egg prices up 1.2%, while pork prices fell by 0.4% [41][42] Infrastructure and Production - Infrastructure data remains weak, with cement dispatch rates at 33.4%, unchanged from the previous week and down from 36.5% year-on-year [15] - The asphalt plant operating rate has increased to 28%, up 3 percentage points from the previous week, but still down 4.7 percentage points year-on-year [15] Interest Rates and Debt - Interest rates remain relatively stable, with 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year government bond yields reported at 1.4017%, 1.6183%, and 1.8412%, respectively [55] - The issuance of special bonds to support infrastructure projects has been significant, with plans for 1.5 trillion yuan in long-term bonds to support nearly 3,000 projects [45]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recovery of the manufacturing PMI in November, highlighting improvements in export orders and construction sector indicators, suggesting a positive trend in economic activity [2][4][12]. Group 1: Changes in Exports and Construction Chain - Export orders index rose to 47.6% in November, up from 45.9% in the previous month, indicating a 1.7% increase, with overall new orders index at 49.2%, up 0.4% [5][12]. - The construction sector shows improvement in expectations, employment, and orders, with the business activity expectation index for construction rising to 57.9%, the highest since April 2024 [6][16]. - New orders index for construction was 46.1% in November, better than 43.5% in the same month last year, indicating a consistent improvement since September [7][16]. Group 2: Manufacturing PMI Data - The manufacturing PMI for November was 49.2%, slightly up from 49.0% in October, with the production index at 50.0%, indicating a recovery [2][26]. - The new export orders index was 47.6%, reflecting a positive trend in external demand, while the employment index was at 48.4%, showing slight improvement [3][26]. - The comprehensive PMI output index decreased to 49.7%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a mixed outlook for overall economic activity [29].