Core Viewpoint - The document emphasizes that the research material is intended solely for professional investors associated with Huachuang Securities, highlighting the importance of appropriate investor suitability management [1][3]. Group 1 - The research team at Huachuang Securities is positioned to provide timely exchanges of viewpoints specifically for professional investors in the context of new media [3]. - The material is derived from previously published research reports by Huachuang Securities, and any discrepancies should refer back to the complete content of the original reports [4]. - The opinions and analyses presented may change without notice based on subsequent reports from Huachuang Securities, indicating a dynamic approach to investment research [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the understanding of Supply-Side Reform 3.0, emphasizing its integration with domestic demand expansion and the differences from previous reforms in 2015 and 2016 [2][3][5]. Top-Level Design - The core deployment of the current economic strategy is to combine the implementation of the domestic demand expansion strategy with deepening supply-side structural reforms [3]. - A new framework called "BBT" has been introduced, focusing on three aspects: supplementing shortages, transformation, and improvement [3][4]. - Industries are categorized based on supply-demand matching: supplementing shortages, improving efficiency, and transformation for future needs [4]. Historical Comparison - The external environment differs significantly from 2015-2016, with higher contributions from exports and greater external pressures [6]. - The current reform focuses on midstream manufacturing with a more complex range of industries compared to the previous focus on state-owned enterprises and fewer product categories [6]. - The goals of the current reform emphasize long-term industrial upgrading rather than immediate economic recovery [6]. - The methods of implementation have shifted from administrative to market-oriented and legal frameworks, which may result in slower effects [7]. - The duration of the current reform is expected to be longer, potentially lasting 1-3 years, as it relies on market and institutional changes [7]. Three Stages of Reform - The current supply-side reform may progress through three stages: controlling new projects, promoting industry mergers and restructuring, and potentially implementing mandatory capacity reduction measures if necessary [9]. - The process is not urgent and will adapt to the specific conditions of different industries, with some like the photovoltaic sector possibly moving faster [9]. Historical Review of Previous Reforms - The article identifies five similarities between the supply-side reforms of 1998 and 2015, including similar reform backgrounds and common industry focus [11][12]. - The approach to reform has been consistent, involving setting targets, monitoring progress, strict enforcement, and maintaining employment [13][14]. - The effectiveness of past reforms shows long-term improvements in industry profitability, although short-term impacts varied [16]. Current Assessment of Supply-Side Pressure - A quantitative assessment of supply-side pressures indicates that the current industrial pressure index has not yet reached the levels seen in 2015, suggesting a slower approach to capacity reduction [18]. - The photovoltaic industry currently exhibits the highest pressure index, indicating it may be prioritized in the reform process [18].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the economic performance in the second quarter, highlighting the need for a rebalancing of quantity and price in GDP growth, with a focus on consumer spending and investment control measures [1][5]. Group 1: Economic Growth Analysis - In Q2, GDP growth was 5.2%, slightly down from 5.4% in Q1, while the cumulative growth for the first half of the year was 5.3% [3][19]. - The nominal GDP growth rate for Q2 was 3.9%, with a significant contribution from quantity at 132% and a negative contribution from price at -30.6% [3][19]. - The contribution rates to GDP growth were as follows: final consumption expenditure at 52.3%, capital formation at 24.7%, and net exports at 23% [22]. Group 2: Investment and Consumption Trends - Fixed asset investment growth in June was -0.1%, with manufacturing and infrastructure investment showing declines [4][51]. - Consumer spending in June grew by 4.8%, down from 6.4% in May, with notable declines in restaurant and online shopping growth rates [4][40]. - The average monthly income for migrant workers in Q2 increased by 3.0%, but this was lower than the 3.3% growth in Q1 [31]. Group 3: Rebalancing Measures - The article outlines three key measures for addressing the imbalance between quantity and price: controlling incremental investments, improving corporate cash flow, and enhancing consumer spending willingness [5][12][18]. - The first measure involves strict control over new investments, particularly in the manufacturing sector, where investment growth has been declining [12][13]. - The second measure focuses on improving cash flow for enterprises, with recent data indicating a recovery in corporate deposits [15][6]. - The third measure aims to boost consumer spending through various policies, with consumer inclination slightly increasing to 68.6% in Q2 compared to 68.5% in the previous year [18][25].

Core Viewpoints - The current liquidity easing is primarily driven by the relocation of household deposits, leading to a market logic that favors equities over bonds, rather than a simultaneous bull market in both [3][5][6] - Unlike previous instances where household deposit relocation occurred after economic expectations improved, this time it is policy-driven, with the underlying fundamentals still in a bottoming phase, resulting in strong market expectations for further central bank easing [3][6][19] - Continuous relocation of household deposits may raise concerns for the central bank regarding idle funds, and the necessity for further loans to stimulate investment is decreasing, unless specific adverse economic events occur [3][7][19] Financial Data Summary - In June 2025, new social financing increased by 4.20 trillion yuan, up from 2.29 trillion yuan previously, with a year-on-year growth of 8.9% [2][25] - M2 money supply grew by 8.3% year-on-year, while new M1 increased by 4.6%, indicating a shift in liquidity dynamics [2][28] - The increase in corporate loans was significant, with a total of 2.24 trillion yuan in new loans, reflecting a strong demand for credit [21][27] Analysis of Liquidity Dynamics - When household deposit relocation is the main driver of liquidity, the market logic tends to favor equities, creating a seesaw effect between stocks and bonds [5][12] - The current environment suggests a preference for equities over bonds, as household deposit relocation is not linked to improved economic expectations but rather to policy initiatives [6][15] - The central bank's future actions may focus more on structural adjustments rather than broad monetary easing, aiming to stabilize liquidity in both equity and bond markets [9][19]

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人：夏雪（微信 SuperSummerSnow） 事项 6 月我国以美元计算出口同比 5.8% ，彭博一致预期 5% ，前值 4.80% ；以美元计算进口同比 1.1% ，彭博一致预期 1.3% ，前值 -3.40% 。 核心观点 2 、后续出口怎么看？ 对于 7 月出口，从高频跟踪指标来看，或仍具韧性，增速可能边际放缓。区域结构上，美国的拖累或再度加剧，而东盟出口或仍保持较高景 气。再往后看，出口下行风险或在积聚 。 报告摘要 一、关税影响中国出口价格了吗？ 近期市场关注到日本汽车出口价格大幅下跌， 6 月乘用车出口价格指数相比 3 月跌 7.3% ，引发市场思考出口商是否在关税压力下主动降价出口美国，本文聚焦近 期中国的出口价格变化，主要关注四个问题： 1 ）整体来看，关税压力下中国出口价格下滑了吗？ 2 ）美国进口视角来看，从中国进口价格是否有明显下滑？ 3 ） 分行业来看，关税压力越大的行业中国出口降价越多吗？ 4 ）后续出口价格变化如何跟踪？ （一）整体来看：中国出口价格降幅在收窄 中国出口价格指数同 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent Central Urban Work Conference marks a significant moment in China's urbanization strategy, reflecting both continuity and change compared to the 2015 conference, particularly in urbanization rates and real estate policies [1][4][5]. Comparison with 2015: Two Constants - High-level attendance remains consistent, with all seven members of the Politburo Standing Committee present, indicating the central government's strong coordination on urban issues [3][12]. - The timing of the conference aligns with the initiation of new five-year plans for both national and urbanization strategies, serving as a critical starting point for future urban development [4][14]. Comparison with 2015: Four Changes - **Shift in Urbanization Assessment**: The assessment of urbanization has shifted from rapid growth to stable development, with the current urbanization rate at 67% and a target of nearly 70% by 2029, suggesting a potential slowdown in growth as per international trends [5][20]. - **Focus on High-Quality Urban Renewal**: The emphasis has shifted to "high-quality urban renewal" rather than the aggressive "shelter improvement" plans of 2015, indicating a long-term approach to urban development with a focus on existing infrastructure rather than expansion [6][17]. - **Increased Attention to Urban Safety**: The conference introduced a new focus on urban safety, emphasizing the need to maintain safety standards and enhance urban resilience through infrastructure improvements and social stability measures [7][23]. - **Identification of New Industrial Opportunities**: The conference highlighted new opportunities in urban renewal, service industries, and pollution reduction initiatives, indicating a shift towards sustainable urban development practices [8][25][26]. Future Tracking - Key follow-up actions include monitoring the implementation documents that will detail the conference's resolutions, tracking high-level government activities related to urbanization, and observing how urban issues are integrated into subsequent central meetings and documents [9][27].

根据《证券期货投资者适当性管理办法》及配套指引，本资料仅面向华创证券客户中的金融机构专业投资者，请勿对本资料 进行任何形式的转发。若您不是华创证券客户中的金融机构专业投资者，请勿订阅、接收或使用本资料中的信息。本资料难 以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。感谢您的理解与配合。 文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人：殷雯卿（19945767933） 法律声明 华 创 证券研究所 定 位 为 面 向 专 业 投 资 者的研究团队，本资料仅适用于经认可的 专 业 投 资 者 ， 仅 供 在 新 媒 体 背景下研究 观 点 的 及 时 交 流 。 华 创证券不因任何订阅本资料的行为而将订 阅 人 视 为 公 司 的 客 户 。 普 通 投资者若使 用 本 资 料 ， 有 可 能 因 缺乏解读服务而对报告中的关键假设、评 级 、 目 标 价 等 内 容 产 生 理 解 上的歧义， 进 而 造 成 投 资 损 失 。 本资料来自华创证券研究所已经发布的研究报告，若对报告的摘编产生歧义，应以报告发布当日的完整内容为 准。须注意的是，本资料仅代表报告发布 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article focuses on recent employment policies in China, highlighting four key areas: increased investment in labor-based relief projects, enhanced unemployment insurance, expanded one-time employment subsidies, and the reintroduction of social insurance deferral policies [2][14]. Group 1: Labor-Based Relief Projects - The central government has significantly increased investment in labor-based relief projects, with a total of 29.5 billion yuan allocated for 2025, compared to 11.5 billion yuan in 2024 and 5.6 billion yuan in 2020 [5][18]. - The policy aims to provide employment opportunities for over 700,000 disadvantaged individuals by participating in infrastructure projects [5][21]. - The proportion of labor remuneration in central project funding has been raised from over 30% to over 40% [5][18]. Group 2: Unemployment Insurance - The unemployment insurance policy aims to stabilize employment by refunding a certain percentage of the previous year's unemployment insurance contributions to companies [7][22]. - The refund cap for large enterprises has been increased from 30% to 50%, while for small and medium-sized enterprises, it has risen from 60% to 90% [7][22]. - The estimated refund amount for 2024 could range from 39.4 billion to 59.1 billion yuan, based on the increased refund ratios [8][25]. Group 3: One-Time Employment Subsidies - The one-time employment subsidy has been expanded to include social organizations, with a subsidy of up to 1,500 yuan per person for hiring unemployed youth aged 16-24 [9][30]. - The target group for this subsidy has shifted from recent graduates to include all unemployed youth aged 16-24 [9][32]. - The youth unemployment rate reached 14.9% in May 2025, indicating ongoing challenges in youth employment [9][32]. Group 4: Social Insurance Deferral Policies - The reintroduced social insurance deferral policy allows companies facing operational difficulties to defer their contributions to social insurance, including pension and unemployment insurance [11][36]. - The specifics of the deferral period have not been clarified, but it aims to alleviate cash flow pressures for struggling businesses [11][39]. - The potential financial relief from deferring pension contributions could amount to approximately 21.2 trillion yuan if applied broadly [11][40].

Group 1: Policy Insights - Recent high-level inspections focused on technology and industrial transformation, local finance, and economic operations, with key visits by top officials in various provinces [1][5][6] - The State Council emphasized the need for innovation in agriculture and the expansion of cultural tourism and elderly care services during recent inspections [1][6] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) issued notifications to support the construction of zero-carbon parks, encouraging funding and policy support for such initiatives [2][8] Group 2: Economic Measures - The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security announced a 2% increase in basic pensions for retirees in 2025, reflecting a commitment to improving social welfare [3][9] - The State Council issued a notice to enhance employment stability policies, increasing unemployment insurance refunds for small and medium enterprises from a maximum of 60% to 90% of their previous contributions [3][9] - The National State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) called for a focus on strategic emerging industries and the acceleration of innovation and technology development [2][10] Group 3: Financial Regulations - The Ministry of Finance introduced a new long-cycle assessment mechanism for state-owned insurance companies, adjusting the weight of net asset return rates and capital preservation rates over different time frames [2][11] - The new assessment framework includes a combination of current year, three-year, and five-year indicators, aiming to promote long-term stable investments [2][11]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the progress of the Trump administration's immigration policies, particularly focusing on the deportation of illegal immigrants and the changing attitudes of American society towards immigration. Group 1: Illegal Immigration Estimates - As of the end of 2024, the estimated number of illegal immigrants in the U.S. is approximately 12.8 to 15.2 million, with a labor participation rate of about 66.3%, contributing roughly 8.5 to 10 million workers [2][10][11]. Group 2: Deportation Progress - From February to June this year, the number of deportations was less than 100,000, accounting for only 0.7-0.8% of the total illegal immigrant population [3][11]. - The Trump administration has prioritized the arrest and deportation of criminal groups, but progress has been slow, with only 752 individuals convicted of murder and 1,693 convicted of sexual offenses arrested by ICE as of May 2025 [3][15]. - The number of illegal immigrants encountered at the southwestern border from January to May was approximately 108,700, representing a decrease of 88% compared to the same period in 2024 and a decrease of 88.6% compared to 2022-2024 [3][16]. Group 3: Changing Attitudes Towards Immigration - Over the past year, American attitudes towards immigration have become significantly more optimistic, with the percentage of people wanting to reduce immigration dropping from 55% in June of last year to 30% this June [4][19]. - A record 79% of American adults now believe that immigration is a good thing for the country, the highest level since 2001 [4][21]. - Support for providing a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants has increased, with the percentage of people supporting deportation of all undocumented immigrants falling from 47% to 38% [4][24].