文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人：付春生 （18482259975） 事 项 4月，CPI同比下降0.1%，预期下降0.15%，前值下降0.1%；核心CPI同比上涨0.5%，前值上涨0.5%。PPI同比下降2.7%，预期下 降2.8%，前值下降2.5% 。 报告摘要 一、4月CPI的结构性特征 本月CPI略高于我们的预期，或因没考虑到金价上涨的影响 。CPI同比和环比均较我们的预期高0.1个百分点，预期差在核心CPI。 据统计局解读，金饰品价格上涨10.1%，拉动CPI环比约0.06个百分点，据此推算，金饰品在CPI中的权重占比大约0.6%，对本月 核心CPI环比的拉动约0.1个百分点。 本月CPI项目环比上涨或好于季节性的：1） 受需求回暖及假日因素共同影响，机票、交通工具租赁费、宾馆住宿和旅游等出行服 务价格好于季节性。 2） 在供给减少等因素影响，食品价格上涨0.2%，好于季节性。比较明显的是，牛肉价格上涨3.9%，创2019 年10月以来最高（过去两年因供给扩张牛肉价格大幅下跌），在需求淡季下鲜菜和猪肉价格跌幅偏小。 3） 房租环比 ...

Core Viewpoints - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the underlying economic conditions in both the US and China, rather than reacting to the fluctuating news about tariffs. Investors should focus on the core economic fundamentals to navigate uncertainties effectively [2][4]. Group 1: US Economic Analysis - The core issue in the US economy is whether excess wealth can absorb the inflation caused by future tariffs. If it can, profits will remain stable; if not, stagflation may occur [6][14]. - The risk premium in the US is at a historical high, which could easily trigger a liquidity crisis if it breaks [14]. - The US faces a significant challenge with a peak in corporate debt, particularly in the junk bond sector, which could be severely impacted by inflation and tariffs [10][11]. Group 2: Chinese Economic Analysis - The key question for China is whether the release of household savings can continue and whether tariffs will disrupt this recovery [15][21]. - Recent monetary policies, such as interest rate cuts, aim to prevent disruptions from tariffs and support economic recovery [19]. - The proportion of precautionary savings among Chinese households has decreased from 26% in 2022 to an expected 19% in 2024, indicating a gradual return to normal spending behavior [19][20]. Group 3: Economic Interaction Models - Three interactive models are proposed to understand the Chinese economy: what economic changes trigger policy responses, what changes yield the best profit visibility for A-shares, and what changes affect consumption upgrades and downgrades [22][30]. - Historical data shows that significant policy changes often occur when uncontrollable economic factors (red line) decline, prompting government intervention [25][26]. Group 4: Tariff Implications - The article discusses the short-term unpredictability of tariffs and emphasizes the importance of understanding the mid-term logic behind them, distinguishing between primary risks (β) and relative risks (α) [38]. - The US's role in global demand is significant, with it accounting for about 16% of total global imports and 1/3 of global final consumer goods imports [38]. Group 5: Investment Strategies - The best investment strategy in the current environment is to "respond to uncertainty with certainty," as articulated in the April Politburo meeting [39]. - China's financial market is expected to provide more certainty than the US market in the coming months, with lower volatility anticipated due to clearer challenges and policy responses [40][41]. - The focus should be on high-dividend stocks and technology investments, which are seen as stable opportunities amid the current economic landscape [41].

Core Viewpoint - The central theme of the report emphasizes the need for a shift in monetary policy focus from merely supporting high prices to managing low prices and fostering high-quality development, while addressing the challenges of excessive competition in certain sectors [4][10]. Group 1: Price Changes - The central bank identifies a persistent imbalance between supply and demand in the real economy, with major price indicators operating at low levels, leading to increased attention on price stability [4][10]. - Demand recovery is acknowledged, with consumption and investment growth accelerating since the fourth quarter of last year, but overall demand remains weak due to global growth slowdown, structural economic transitions, and consumer sentiment [4][10]. - On the supply side, excessive competition is noted in certain industries, characterized by inefficient supply, homogeneous competition in emerging sectors, and prolonged inventory clearance cycles in real estate [4][10][11]. - The relationship between money supply and prices is complex, with the central bank suggesting that merely increasing money supply may exacerbate supply-demand imbalances, thus hindering price recovery [4][11]. Group 2: Policy Framework - The report indicates a gradual shift in the role of the Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) from a policy interest rate tool to a liquidity provision instrument, with a focus on the 7-day reverse repurchase rate as the primary policy rate [5][10]. - Structural monetary policy tools are being explored to enhance low-cost funding support for key consumption sectors, indicating a proactive approach to stimulate consumer spending [5][13]. - The central bank highlights the sustainability of government debt expansion in China, given the substantial state-owned assets and low government debt levels, which is crucial for social welfare and economic transformation [5][16]. Group 3: Bond Market Insights - The central bank warns of interest rate risks associated with government bonds, particularly long-term bonds, which are sensitive to market rate changes and can amplify investor gains or losses [6][17]. - The report points out the need for improved pricing efficiency and risk management capabilities in the bond market, with a significant portion of trading volume concentrated among smaller financial institutions [6][17]. - Tax policies affecting the bond market are discussed, noting that tax exemptions on government bond interest can influence market pricing and yield volatility [6][17].

Core Viewpoint - The future downward and upward pressures on the U.S. economy's internal demand are identified, with downward pressures stemming from tariffs, wealth effect deterioration, and potential financial market contagion, while upward pressures are linked to private investment and Fed rate cuts [2][12]. Group 1: Tariffs as a Downward Uncertainty Source - Tariffs are the largest source of uncertainty for economic downturns, significantly impacting U.S. import demand and consequently global trade [4][14]. - The U.S. accounts for 16% of global imports (excluding intra-EU trade) and approximately one-third of global final consumption goods imports, indicating its critical role in global trade dynamics [4][14]. - A negative growth of over 5% in U.S. import growth could exert substantial pressure on the global economy, necessitating close monitoring of the impact of tariffs on U.S. imports [4][19]. Group 2: Consumer Spending Risks - The wealth effect of U.S. residents is highly sensitive to stock market performance, with a potential decline in consumer spending resilience if the stock market continues to fall [6][26]. - A 10.4% drop in the Nasdaq index in Q1 2024 could lead to a reduction in excess wealth by 27%-61%, with further declines potentially exacerbating this effect [6][26]. - The outlook for disposable cash flow is bleak, with a projected 4.5% year-on-year increase in wage income for 2025, slightly below 2024's 4.8% [7][30]. Group 3: Financial Market Risks - The U.S. financial market is currently facing multiple risks, including liquidity issues and high leverage, which could amplify market volatility and impact the economic fundamentals [8][36]. - Political uncertainties, such as tariffs, may further exacerbate financial market fluctuations, posing additional risks to economic growth [8][36]. Group 4: Private Investment as an Upward Risk - Following the Fed's rate cuts, real estate investment is expected to stabilize within 1-2 years, typically leading economic recovery [9][40]. - Major U.S. tech companies are increasing their capital expenditures, with a 19% upward revision in 2025 capital spending expectations compared to earlier forecasts [9][46].

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 袁玲玲（微信 Yuen43） 报告摘要 节前一周，政策出台不多，主要关注以下内容。 （一）全国人大动态 ： 4 月 30 日，全国人大常委会表决通过民营经济促进法，该法将于 5 月 20 日 正式实施。 （二）总书记重要行程 ： 1 ） 4 月 29 日， 总书记在上海考察，并在上海"模速空间"大模型创新生 态社区调研，对上海积极发展人工智能取得的实效给予肯定。 2 ） 4 月 30 日，总书记主持召开部分 省区市"十五五"时期经济社会发展座谈会，强调谋划"十五五"时期经济社会发展，要"要坚定不移办好 自己的事，坚定不移扩大高水平对外开放"，"更加注重统筹发展和安全"，"把因地制宜发展新质生产 力摆在更加突出的战略位置"，"稳步推动共同富裕"等。 （三）发改委及财政部政策吹风 ： 1 ） 4 月 28 日 ， 国新办就稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展政策措 施有关情况举行发布会，发改委表示，" 提振消费方面 ，近期我们已经下达了今年第二批消费品以旧 换新资金，前两批一共下达超过 ...

2、会议声明重点强调不确定性上升。 相比于3月，在经济依然稳健的基调上，着重体现了不确定性加剧的 变化。对于经济，虽然 "净出口的波动影响了数据"，但经济活动继续以稳健速度扩张。对于经济前景的不 确实性，从"增加（increased）"修改为"进一步增加（increased further）"，并且新增"高失业率和更高通胀 的风险已经上升"的判断。 3、鲍威尔的会后表态，一句话总结就是"现在很好，未来不知道，先等等看" ： 对于目前经济 ：1）净出口拖累1季度GDP，但不含库存和政府的私人国内最终购买（表征私人部门需求） 依然强劲。2）劳动力市场仍然稳固，大致处于平衡状态。3）受关税预期影响，短期通胀预期、消费者和 企业信心等软指标走弱，但与消费者支出等硬数据之间不是"强有力的联系"。 文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人：付春生 （18482259975） 报告摘要 一、5月FOMC会议："现在很好，未来不知道，先等等看" 1、暂停降息，符合预期。 FOMC维持联邦基金目标利率区间在4.25%-4.50%不变，符合市场预期。所有 FOMC票委 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that in April, economic indicators will reflect changes influenced by external demand, with a potential state of "stable volume and weak price" expected in the economy [2][4]. Group 1: Export and Import Trends - Export resilience is indicated by a 7.3% year-on-year increase in container throughput at monitored Chinese ports as of April 27, compared to 8.9% in March [4] - Container shipping capacity from China to the U.S. shows a year-on-year increase of approximately 5% in April, down from 19.1% in March, suggesting some downward pressure on direct exports to the U.S. [4] - U.S. imports are expected to rise, with a 5.3% year-on-year increase in overall import value as of April 24, compared to 0.1% at the end of March [4][11] - Vietnam's imports in early April increased by 16.1% year-on-year, reflecting a "import grabbing" effect [4][11] Group 2: Consumer Spending and Investment - Retail sales growth is projected at around 5.3% in April, supported by the "trade-in for new" policy, with specific growth rates of 5.0% for dining and automotive sectors [5][13] - Fixed asset investment growth is expected to be 4.0% for January to April, with real estate investment declining by 10.5% and manufacturing investment increasing by 9.0% [5][14] Group 3: Financial Indicators - New social financing in April is expected to be around 660 billion, an increase of 1 trillion compared to the same period last year, with a social financing stock growth rate of approximately 8.6% [6][17] - M2 money supply is projected to grow by 7.2% year-on-year, while new M1 is expected to grow by 2.1% [6][17] Group 4: Price Trends - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is anticipated to be around -3% year-on-year in April, influenced by declining prices of major commodities such as copper and crude oil [7][19] - Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to be around -0.2% year-on-year, with food prices projected to rise by 0.1% month-on-month [8][18]

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 文若愚（微信 LRsuperdope） 事项 2025 年 5 月 7 日"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"新闻发布会上： 央行潘行长公布了十项货币政策措施：①降低存款准备金率 0.5 个百分点；②阶段性将汽车金融公司、金 融租赁公司的存款准备金率从目前的 5% 调降为 0% ；③下调政策利率 0.1 个百分点；④下调结构货性货 币政策工具利率 0.25 个百分点；⑤降低个人住房公积金贷款利率 0.25 个百分点；⑥增加 3000 亿元科技 创新和技术改造再贷款额度；⑦设立 5000 亿元"服务消费与养老再贷款"；⑧增加支农支小再贷款额度 3000 亿元；⑨将证券基金保险公司互换便利和股票回购增持再贷款的额度合并使用；⑩创设科技创新债券 风险分担工具。 国家金融监督管理总局李局长公布了八项政策措施：①加快出台与房地产发展新模式相适配的系列融资制 度；②进一步扩大保险资金长期投资试点范围；③进一步调降保险公司股票投资风险因子，支持稳定和活 跃资本市场；④尽快推出支持小微企业、民营企业融资一揽子政策；⑤制定实 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of global asset classes in April, highlighting the impact of U.S. tariff policies and market sentiment on various financial instruments [2][4]. Summary by Sections Global Asset Performance - In April, global bonds outperformed other asset classes with a return of 2.94%, followed by global stocks at 0.98%, while commodities saw a decline of 8.79% [2]. Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators - The ratio of discretionary to staple consumption in the S&P 500 has rebounded, indicating a recovery in market sentiment, influenced by Trump's tariff announcements and subsequent negotiations [4]. - Following the announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" on April 2, the U.S. dollar index fell to its lowest level since March 2022, dropping over 10% from its peak earlier in the year [4][11]. Dollar Liquidity and Credit Concerns - Dollar liquidity concerns in April 2025 were noted, but the situation was significantly better than during the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in March 2023, with specific credit spreads remaining lower [5][14]. Investment Preferences - A survey indicated that 42% of global fund managers expect gold to be the best-performing asset in 2025, followed by cash and government bonds [6][16]. - The Bloomberg Federal Reserve sentiment index has declined, suggesting a potential easing of upward pressure on U.S. Treasury yields [6][20]. Economic Activity Indicators - The copper-to-oil ratio has been rising, which may positively impact the CSI 300 index, reflecting stronger industrial activity in China [7][26]. - Speculative positions in Japanese yen futures reached a 20-year high, indicating strong bullish sentiment towards the yen [8][28]. Currency Fluctuations - The Chinese yuan experienced significant volatility in April, initially depreciating due to tariff fears but later recovering as market expectations for U.S.-China tariff negotiations improved [9][31]. - Concerns over U.S. dollar credit led to a spike in gold prices, which reached a critical level of $3,500 per ounce [10][35]. Economic Activity Index - The weekly economic activity index from Huachuang Securities showed a rebound, indicating a positive correlation with asset prices and economic fundamentals [39]. Market Sentiment and Valuation - The article notes that the copper-gold ratio serves as a leading indicator for U.S. Treasury yields, reflecting market preferences for risk assets [41]. - The sentiment index, which combines various market indicators, has shown a decline, suggesting a shift in market mood [53]. Asset Class Performance Overview - A detailed table outlines the performance of various asset classes, with notable declines in the S&P 500 (-0.76%) and the CSI 300 (-3.00%) for the month [67].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the collective appreciation of Asian currencies during the May Day holiday, primarily driven by the significant appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar, which rose by 6.8% [2][8]. - The appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar is attributed to exporters selling US dollars and insurance companies' foreign exchange hedging operations, which may have intensified the currency's rise [11][12]. - The article suggests that the appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar may not be an isolated case, as a weakening US dollar could lead to a repatriation of foreign assets, further driving local currency appreciation [11][12]. Group 2 - During the May Day holiday, global asset performance leaned towards a "risk-on" sentiment, with major stock markets experiencing gains, particularly the Nasdaq index, which rose by 3% [4][18]. - The US non-farm payrolls for April exceeded expectations, with an increase of 177,000 jobs, indicating a robust labor market and alleviating recession concerns [5][29]. - The US GDP for Q1 turned negative for the first time since Q3 2022, recording a -0.3% growth rate, primarily due to a significant decline in net exports [5][35]. Group 3 - The Bank of Japan decided to pause interest rate hikes, maintaining the policy rate at 0.5%, citing uncertainties related to tariff policies as a key factor [5][36]. - The OPEC+ meeting on May 3 agreed to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June, which is three times the original planned increase, leading to a significant drop in oil prices [6][41]. - Warren Buffett announced his retirement at the end of the year during the Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting, emphasizing the importance of not using trade as a weapon and expressing optimism about the US economy [7][42].