Core Viewpoints - The central bank's statement of "strong supply and weak demand" aligns with previous remarks from the Central Economic Work Conference, indicating potential restrictions on loans for production purposes [4][8] - The emphasis on "optimizing supply, improving increment, and revitalizing stock" suggests that credit growth in real estate and local financing platforms may not significantly improve in the short term, while financing for high-tech innovative enterprises is expected to expand [4][11] - The central bank highlighted the importance of timing in policy implementation, suggesting that during periods of accelerated fiscal debt issuance, the central bank may adopt a more accommodative stance [4][12] - The removal of the phrase "preventing fund idling" indicates that the central bank may have more flexibility to adjust monetary policy in response to significant economic downturns [4][13] - Overall, the fourth quarter meeting did not alter expectations for a decline in loan growth and M2 growth, suggesting that the most accommodative phase of macro liquidity may have passed, making it difficult for valuations to rise further [4][5] Economic Outlook - The central bank emphasized the current economic situation as "strong supply and weak demand," indicating ongoing challenges despite some progress in high-quality development [8][12] - The previous statement regarding economic performance has shifted from a focus on "insufficient domestic demand" to a more nuanced view of supply-demand imbalances [8][12] Policy Framework - The central bank's focus on "optimizing supply" suggests a shift towards structural adjustments in monetary policy, with an emphasis on improving the efficiency of fund utilization [11][12] - The central bank's approach may lead to a decrease in credit demand from the real estate sector and local financing platforms, while financing for innovative sectors is likely to grow [11][12] Policy Implementation - The timing of monetary policy implementation is crucial, with the central bank indicating that it will adjust its approach based on fiscal debt issuance and economic conditions [12][13] - The central bank's flexibility in monetary policy may increase if significant economic pressures arise, allowing for potential adjustments to support economic stability [13] Market Implications - For equity assets, the current supply-demand balance is improving, and the stock-bond comparison indicates that stocks may offer better allocation advantages [5] - In the bond market, the ten-year government bond yield may face upward pressure unless unconventional monetary easing occurs, as the fourth quarter meeting did not signal such measures [5]

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 韩港（微信 HGK1366） 报告摘要 前言： 本文关注外资对 2026 年中国经济的观点，整体而言，外资认为中国仍处于新旧动能转换、供需再 平衡的过程中，在此背景下，预计 2026 年经济增速中枢在 4.5% 附近（回溯来看外资预测普遍偏低估）， 通胀温和回升， CPI 转正， PPI 降幅收窄。 （一）经济增长：中枢 4.5% 左右 一致预期： 多数机构认为， 2026 年中国实际 GDP 增速 4.5% 左右（小摩、德银、瑞银、 OECD 、 IMF ），详见正文。 观点分歧： 大摩的预期相对乐观（ 4.8% ），一方面对出口的判断更为积极，预计 2026 年净出口对 GDP 的贡献在 1.3 个百分点（瑞银为 0.7 个百分点），另一方面，预计政府消费将有所提速。美银的预期同样 乐观（ 4.7% ），主要支撑在投资，预计增速回升至 3.5% ，结构上，基建在 5000 亿新型政策性金融工具 + 政府债扩容背景下维持高增，制造业低个位数增长，地产投资降幅收窄。巴克莱 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates a mixed economic outlook, with some indicators showing improvement while others reflect ongoing challenges in various sectors [2][3][20]. Group 2 - The Huachuang Macro WEI index has shown a slight increase to 5.17% as of December 14, up 1.05% from December 7, indicating a recovery in economic activity [2][8]. - Retail sales of passenger cars have seen a narrowing decline, with a year-on-year decrease of -17% in the second week of December, compared to -32% previously [2][13]. - The prices of three major new energy products have risen significantly, with industrial silicon up 3.1%, polysilicon up 6.4%, and lithium carbonate up 16.4% [2][36]. Group 3 - Most industries are experiencing a decline in operating rates, with only a few exceptions like Tangshan's blast furnaces showing stability [3][17]. - The average listing price of second-hand homes has dropped significantly, with first-tier cities down 0.6% and a cumulative decline of 6.2% for the year [3][38]. - The construction sector shows signs of weakness, with asphalt operating rates declining to an average of 27.8% from 34.4% earlier [9][17]. Group 4 - The port container throughput has increased year-on-year by 10.6%, although it has decreased by 0.9% compared to the previous week [2][20]. - The export container throughput from Chinese ports has shown a recovery, with a year-on-year increase in the number of outbound vessels [20][21]. - The overall import situation in the U.S. has rebounded, but imports from China remain weak, with a year-on-year decrease of -27.6% [22][23]. Group 5 - The current stock-bond Sharpe ratio difference stands at 2.65, indicating a favorable allocation value for stocks compared to bonds [11]. - The interest rates for various financial instruments have shown slight fluctuations, with DR001 at 1.2706% and DR007 at 1.4413% as of December 19 [48][49]. - The government is expected to maintain necessary fiscal deficits and debt levels while enhancing the precision and effectiveness of fiscal policies [41][42].

Core Viewpoint - High-income economies maintain continuous growth in total factor productivity (TFP), which is crucial for sustained economic growth and transitioning from middle-income to high-income status. Key factors include structural transformation, technological advancement, and efficient factor allocation [2][4]. Group 1: Characteristics of High-Income Economies - Characteristic 1: High-income economies generally sustain continuous growth in total factor productivity. According to the Solow model, the ultimate factor for long-term economic growth is the improvement of TFP. Traditional high-income and catching-up economies experience a slowdown in TFP growth when GDP per capita approaches $10,000, yet still maintain positive growth. In contrast, middle-income economies see negative TFP growth when GDP per capita reaches $2,000 to $3,000 [4][16]. - Characteristic 2: Structural transformation factors—service sector leads, while industry maintains a dominant position. Mature deindustrialization occurs in high-income economies, characterized by a significant increase in service sector productivity, which approaches that of the industrial sector. This transition does not harm overall productivity. Conversely, middle-income economies face challenges due to premature deindustrialization, where service sector productivity lags behind industrial productivity [5][19]. - Characteristic 3: Technological advancement—catching-up economies invest heavily in research and education. R&D expenditure per capita is positively correlated with economic growth, with catching-up economies outspending traditional high-income economies. Education investment also correlates with economic growth, with catching-up economies outperforming traditional high-income economies in educational metrics [7][54]. Group 2: Export and Government Efficiency - Characteristic 4: The enhancement of export value-added is key to sustained export growth. High-income economies can maintain increasing per capita export values alongside economic growth, with a focus on higher value-added products. The Economic Complexity Index (ECI) indicates that high-income countries tend to export more complex products, which correlates with higher GDP per capita [8][59]. - Characteristic 5: Traditional high-income economies exhibit strong government intervention. Despite emphasizing "big market, small government," these economies rely on government regulation during early development stages. Government spending as a percentage of GDP stabilizes after GDP per capita exceeds $10,000. In contrast, catching-up economies show lower government intervention, with government spending around 25% of GDP [9][63]. Group 3: Population and Immigration - Characteristic 6: In the post-demographic dividend phase, immigration optimizes population factors. Net immigration contributes to labor force replenishment and alleviates aging issues. High-skilled immigrants enhance labor productivity and overall economic growth. Studies indicate that net immigration can permanently increase GDP per capita and reduce unemployment rates [10][71].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent economic data from the US, Eurozone, and Japan, highlighting that most data points are below expectations, indicating potential economic weakness and areas to monitor in the upcoming weeks [2][3][5]. Group 1: US Economic Data - November non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations, but other key economic indicators such as October retail sales, November CPI, and Michigan consumer confidence index fell short [2][11]. - Upcoming data to watch includes October durable goods orders, November industrial output, and December consumer confidence index [2][11]. - Weekly economic activity index in the US remained stable, while the German index showed a rising trend [17]. Group 2: Eurozone Economic Data - Eurozone data released this week, including the December monetary policy meeting results and October industrial output, met expectations, while December PMI for manufacturing and services fell short [3][12]. - No significant data releases are scheduled for the upcoming week in the Eurozone [4][12]. Group 3: Japanese Economic Data - Japan's economic indicators, including the quarterly manufacturing index and November CPI, aligned with expectations, while the December PMI showed improvement compared to the previous month [5][13]. - Key upcoming data includes December Tokyo CPI, November unemployment rate, and November industrial output [5][14]. Group 4: Employment and Demand - Initial jobless claims in the US decreased to 224,000, slightly better than expected, while continuing claims rose but remained below forecasts [24]. - The commercial retail sales growth in the US showed a year-on-year increase of 6.2%, indicating a recovery in consumer demand [20]. Group 5: Price and Financial Conditions - Commodity prices have declined, and US gasoline prices continued to drop, with the average price at $2.77 per gallon [32][33]. - Financial conditions in the Eurozone improved slightly, while those in the US remained stable [35]. - The spread-to-worst for high-yield US corporate bonds remained largely unchanged, indicating stable credit conditions [41]. Group 6: Fiscal Spending - As of December 18, total federal spending in the US reached approximately $7.537 trillion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6%, compared to 3% in the same period last year [46].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of implementing the Central Economic Work Conference's decisions to stabilize and promote economic growth, highlighting the need for effective actions and collaboration among various departments to ensure a strong start to the 14th Five-Year Plan [2][8]. Policy Implementation - On December 19, the Premier chaired a State Council meeting to arrange the implementation of the Central Economic Work Conference's decisions, stressing the need for proactive efforts to consolidate and expand the economy's positive momentum [2][8]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) conveyed the importance of enhancing market stability and encouraging quality companies to increase dividends and buybacks [2][11]. - The Central Financial Office detailed the 2025 economic work priorities, focusing on boosting service consumption in areas like culture, tourism, and elderly care, while addressing infrastructure needs [2][11]. Anti-Competition Measures - The Central Financial Office announced a commitment to address "involution" in competition, emphasizing the need for capacity regulation in key industries and monitoring to ensure the orderly exit of outdated capacities [3][11]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology highlighted that the photovoltaic industry will enter a critical governance phase by 2026, focusing on capacity control and project management [3][11]. - The National Development and Reform Commission introduced standards for clean and efficient coal utilization, mandating upgrades and timelines for projects to meet benchmark levels [3][11]. Training and Development - A seminar for senior officials on the spirit of the 20th Central Committee was held, with plans for five training sessions from December 2025 to April 2026 to deepen understanding and implementation of the committee's directives [4][9]. Economic Strategy - An article in "Qiushi" magazine by the General Secretary emphasized that expanding domestic demand is a strategic move for economic stability and security, advocating for a balanced approach between supply and demand [8][11]. - The article also pointed out the need to enhance consumer demand supported by income, promote effective investment, and improve the income distribution structure to foster a middle-income group [8][11]. Employment and Investment - The government aims to stabilize employment by supporting labor-intensive industries and enhancing vocational training, especially for the record number of graduates expected in 2026 [12][13]. - Investment strategies will focus on addressing existing gaps in technology, infrastructure, and public services, with an emphasis on high-quality urban renewal and effective investment expansion [11][12].

从销售净利率来看，A股部分行业存在费用控制与需求不足并存的现象 。多数行业销售毛利率下降反映出终端需求弱、价格传导不畅的问题，而销售净利率的回升 则得益于期间费用优化，尤其是财务费用和销售费用。从资产周转率和资产负债率来看，A股行业运营效率有所企稳，同时杠杆维持稳健。资产周转率过去一年整 体回落但Q3边际改善，与产能利用率的回升一致。 文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 李星宇（18810112501） 核心观点 我们聚焦2025Q3万得全A的盈利分析，通过杜邦分解和供需格局等视角，寻找上市公司盈利数据背后的宏观线索，以辅助宏观经济的跟踪与研判，可以发现：1） ROE的企稳主要靠销售净利率提升（费用控制）支撑，但销售毛利率持续承压，说明宏观需求偏弱的背景下企业更多依赖"节流"而非"开源"来稳定盈利；此外，从 资产周转率和资产负债率来看，上市公司运营效率有所改善，同时杠杆水平维持稳定。2）我们通过产能利用率与资本开支/折旧摊销来观察行业供需格局，观察到 17个行业中有10个行业处于产能利用率低且资本开支/折旧摊销低的状态，在宏观上意味着多数行 ...

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人：高拓 （13705969808） 事项 11月广义财政收入同比-5.2%，10月同比-0.6%；11月广义财政支出同比-1.7%，10月同比-19.1%。 报告摘要 本月，税收收入在高基数上仍同比增长2.8%、7月份以来同比增幅高达6.3%； 明年，我们判断财政收入端有三大逻辑支撑—— 牛市的税收效应、企业反内卷、政 府反内卷 ，或仍将成为财政"跨周期"的重要底气： 一、财政"跨周期"的底气 （一）背景：中央经济工作会议重提"跨周期"，财政部明确对标对表 12 月 12 日，蓝部长表示 " 要对标、对表这次会议的要求，编制好明年的预算盘子，抓好政策的实施，确保党中央的方针政策落地见效 " ；财政部党组会议提出 " 按照中 央经济工作会议部署安排，明年政策取向上，要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应， 加大逆周期和 跨周期 调节力度 ，提升宏观经济治理 效能。 " （二）理解：财政"跨周期"，收入端或是重要的底气来源 不考虑结转结余等沉淀资金， 财政支出=财政收入+债务； 参考中央经济工作 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the recognition of the Huachuang Macro team, led by Zhang Yu, as the second-best macro analyst team in the 2025 Securities Times New Wealth Awards, reflecting their consistent performance and dedication to macroeconomic research [1][3]. Group 1: Team Achievements - The Huachuang Macro team has achieved notable rankings over the years, being fifth in two years, third in three years, and second this year, showcasing their continuous improvement and commitment to excellence in macroeconomic analysis [3]. - The team scored 41,109.579 points, placing them second overall, just behind the first-place team from GF Securities, which scored 43,316.423 points [8]. Group 2: Team Composition - The team consists of experienced analysts, including Zhang Yu as the Vice Director and Chief Macro Analyst, along with other senior analysts such as Lu Yinbo, Wen Ruoyu, and Yin Wenqing, each specializing in various aspects of macroeconomic research [10][11]. - The analysts have diverse backgrounds, with expertise in macro policy, economic growth, financial rates, liquidity analysis, overseas macroeconomics, and global trade, contributing to a well-rounded research capability [11][12][13].

点击查看【张瑜旬度系列】 合集 自 2024 年 7 月政治局会议以来，我们一直强调 " 加大逆周期调节力度 "" 加大超常规举措 " ，而本次会议明确为 " 加 大逆周期和跨周期调节力度 " ，这一变化标志着我们基本告别了过去一年的超常规政策周期。我们认为，经济需要逐 步摆脱对超常规政策的依赖，若能在摆脱依赖后，相关数据仍能保持良好表现，将大幅修正内外资对中国经济前景的 预期。但需明确的是，政策始终保持灵活、动态与相机抉择，若出现突发事件（例如今年 4 月 3 号对等关税冲击）， 政策将随时灵活加码，从这一点来看，经济下行风险已经被兜住。 第二， " 摆脱超常规 " 定调的背后，是经济工作会议对外部形势的判断平稳且略积极， 即 " 外部环境变化影响加深 " ，相较于去年 12 月及今年 4 月强调 " 外部冲击带来不利影响 "" 外部冲击影响加大 " ，本次并未突出外部不利因素。 而且我们能够看到，中国是唯一一个通过反制对等关税而赢得主动权的国家，且前 11 个月出口增速保持在 5.4% ， 这为我们摆脱超常规政策依赖提供了底气。 第三，防风险压力已明显减轻。 历年经济工作会议通常会部署 9-10 项重点任 ...