Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the July inflation data, highlighting the unexpected performance of PPI and CPI, and suggests that PPI may have reached its bottom with potential for recovery in the coming months [3][6][11]. Group 1: PPI Analysis - PPI in July decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, which was below market expectations, primarily due to the impact of "anti-involution" policies and a lag in response to high-frequency price increases [3][11]. - The decline in PPI was influenced by seasonal factors and international trade uncertainties, which affected prices in several industries, leading to a 0.24 percentage point drag on PPI [5][34]. - The article anticipates that the PPI year-on-year decline cycle, which began in October 2021, may have ended, with a potential second recovery phase starting next month due to favorable low base effects from last year [6][16][18]. Group 2: CPI Insights - CPI showed a year-on-year growth of 0% in July, aligning with the five-year average, while core CPI increased by 0.8% [4][22]. - Key contributors to CPI included a seasonal increase in housing rental demand, with rents rising by 0.1%, and improvements in durable goods prices, particularly in transportation and household appliances [4][25]. - The core service prices rose approximately 1.1%, driven by increased travel and medical service costs during the summer season [4][27]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - The economic cycle indicator, "the difference in growth rates between corporate and household deposits," has been rising for six consecutive months, suggesting improved consumer sentiment and economic recovery, which may positively influence PPI [7][17]. - The article notes that while PPI may not turn positive this year, the ongoing "anti-involution" policies are expected to gradually improve market conditions and pricing [8][19]. Group 4: Price Trends and Market Dynamics - The proportion of CPI items experiencing price increases rose seasonally, indicating a recovery in price dynamics [38]. - The proportion of industries with rising PPI prices slightly increased, reflecting a gradual improvement in market conditions [39][42]. - The article emphasizes that the ongoing optimization of domestic market competition is contributing to a narrowing of price declines in several sectors, including coal, steel, and solar energy [5][35].

Core Viewpoints - In July, China's export growth rate exceeded Bloomberg's consensus expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 7.2%, slightly below the company's forecast of 7.5% but higher than the previous value of 5.9% [2][4] - The resilience of exports is supported by low base effects and driven by three key regions: ASEAN, EU, and Africa, which may continue to provide unexpected strength against US tariff pressures [4][6] - Import growth in July significantly surpassed expectations, primarily driven by raw materials and intermediate goods, including crude oil and integrated circuits, indicating potential future pressures on import demand [4][11] Group 1: Trade Data Observations - July's export data aligns closely with the company's expectations, with a year-on-year increase supported by a low base from the previous year, while the month-on-month figure fell below the historical average [6][12] - The resilience of exports is notable given the backdrop of significant US tariff increases, with cumulative export growth remaining robust despite potential "export rush" factors [6][16] - The overall external demand may face downward pressure in the second half of the year, compounded by the potential for a decline in import demand [9][10] Group 2: Regional Export Performance - Exports to the EU, ASEAN, and Africa have shown strong growth, contributing significantly to the overall export performance in July [7][17] - The recovery in EU exports aligns with the manufacturing cycle in the Eurozone, while ASEAN exports may be influenced by transshipment trade dynamics [20][23] - African exports have been particularly strong, driven by vehicle and parts exports, indicating a divergence from trends seen in other regions [26][29] Group 3: Export Outlook - Short-term export resilience is expected to face adjustments due to external demand slowing and high base effects in the fourth quarter [9][34] - Leading indicators suggest that export growth may range between 3%-4% for the year, with potential declines in the second half [10][34] Group 4: Import Performance - July's import growth rate of 4.1% significantly exceeded expectations, driven by various categories including crude oil and integrated circuits [38][60] - The contribution to import growth primarily came from unlisted other goods, indicating a potential reliance on specific categories for sustained growth [11][39] - Future import growth may face challenges due to declining commodity prices and ongoing pressures in the manufacturing sector [39][63]

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 付春生(18482259975) 增加的企业中,约有四分之三的企业通过提高价格 将至少部分成本转嫁给了客户。 大多数企业都传递了部分或全部关税成本 Share of businesses 50 40 30 20 10 0 26% - 50% 51% - 75% 76% - 99% 0% 1% - 25% 100% Pass-through rate Manufacturers | Service firms Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Regional Business Surveys, May 2025. Note: Figures are based on businesses that reported an increase in the cost of their imported goods owing to tariffs over the past six months. 调查结论二:超过一半的制造商和服务公司表示, 他们在经历与关税 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implementation of personal consumption loan interest subsidy policies in various regions of China, highlighting the differences in subsidy targets, standards, processes, funding sources, and effects of these policies [1][10]. Group 1: Subsidy Targets and Types - Three regions (Sichuan, Chongqing, and Hangzhou's Yuhang District) have implemented interest subsidies for personal consumption loans, but with different conditions: Sichuan limits eligible products to automobiles, electronics, home renovations, and household appliances; Chongqing restricts eligible merchants to specific home improvement and appliance sectors; Yuhang District targets low-income households with a maximum annual disposable income of 100,000 yuan [2][11]. Group 2: Interest Subsidy Standards - The interest subsidy rates are generally around 1.5%, with Sichuan and Chongqing initially at 1.5% and later raised to 2% in Chongqing. Yuhang District's rate does not exceed 1.5%. Current consumer loan rates are above 3%, indicating that the subsidies provide a significant reduction in borrowing costs [3][12]. Group 3: Loan Application Process - The process for obtaining the subsidy involves several steps: residents sign a loan contract with a bank, make a purchase, submit documentation for the subsidy, and undergo a review process before the subsidy is disbursed [3][13]. Group 4: Funding Sources - Funding for the subsidies primarily comes from local government finances. For instance, in Sichuan, the funding is shared between provincial and municipal governments at an 80:20 ratio. In Yuhang District, the provincial government covers 60% and the district government 40% of the subsidy, with the remaining portion covered by local banks [4][15]. Group 5: Ensuring Fund Usage - To ensure that the funds are used appropriately, applicants must provide documentation proving the intended use of the loan. Banks are required to conduct thorough reviews and maintain records for audits, while multiple levels of regulatory oversight are in place [5][16]. Group 6: Policy Effects - In Sichuan, as of April 2025, nearly 60 million yuan in subsidies have been disbursed, impacting over 40 billion yuan in consumer loans and benefiting approximately 27,000 individuals. The net increase in consumer loans in 2024 was 133.5 billion yuan, suggesting that the subsidy has a relatively small impact on overall loan growth, although there was a noticeable increase in loan growth rate from 7.2% to 8.1% in the first month of policy implementation [6][17].

Global Monetary Policy Tracking - The major central banks of the US, Eurozone, and Japan have maintained their interest rates unchanged as of July 2025, with the Federal Reserve holding rates at 4.25%-4.5% [2][12] - The expectation for rate cuts in the US has decreased, with the anticipated number of cuts dropping from nearly 3 in early July to less than 2 by the end of July, and the probability of a September cut falling from 90% to about 40% [3][19] - In the Eurozone, the expectation for a rate cut has also cooled, with the probability of a September cut decreasing from 42% to approximately 10% [3][19] - Japan's central bank has maintained its policy rate unchanged for the fourth consecutive time, with inflation expectations being revised upwards [3][15] Global Liquidity Tracking - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet has contracted, with reserves shrinking by $57.7 billion since the beginning of the tapering process, and a monthly reduction of $47.6 billion in July 2025 [4][27] - The liquidity in the non-bank sector is tightening, as indicated by the frequent positive spread between SOFR and EFFR rates, reflecting a significant liquidity squeeze in non-bank institutions [4][30] - The liquidity premium in the US dollar market remains elevated, with the Libor-OIS spread maintaining a high level, indicating that liquidity is still ample despite some tightening [6][40] Credit Risk Premium - Since July 2025, the OAS of US high-yield credit bonds and the CDS prices for high-yield and investment-grade bonds have seen a slight increase, indicating a rise in credit risk premium [9][45] - In contrast, CDS prices for credit bonds in Europe, Japan, and Asia remain low, suggesting a relatively stable credit environment outside the US [9][45]

Core Viewpoint - The article focuses on the concept of "anti-involution" across various industries, emphasizing that the framework is still being refined and may require further input from industry associations and relevant departments [2][3]. Group 1: Historical Context of Anti-Involution - The first positioning of anti-involution is to serve high-quality development and enhance industrial competitiveness, integrating the strategy of expanding domestic demand with supply-side structural reforms [5][11]. - The second positioning is to support the construction of a unified national market, facilitating domestic circulation, with various measures already implemented to promote this goal [6][13]. Group 2: Future Outlook on Anti-Involution - The article outlines three reasons why the current anti-involution efforts are not urgent: differing goal orientations compared to previous supply-side reforms, varying employment constraints, and differing micro-profit pressures [7][17][18]. - Multiple sectors may be involved in anti-involution efforts, including new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, lithium batteries, electronics, chemicals, and civil aviation [22]. - The implementation of anti-involution is expected to occur in three phases: 1. Phase one focuses on regulating corporate and government behavior to maintain fair market competition [26][28]. 2. Phase two involves market-based methods such as mergers and acquisitions to eliminate ineffective production capacity [30]. 3. Phase three may introduce more explicit "hard targets" to resolve supply-demand conflicts if previous phases do not yield results [32][33]. Group 3: Mechanisms for Implementing Anti-Involution - The article discusses the need for corporate behavior regulation, highlighting relevant laws and regulations aimed at promoting product quality and fair competition [35][36]. - Government behavior must also be regulated, with various policies in place to ensure fair competition and prevent local protectionism [38][39]. - Supply-side measures will focus on enhancing standards to force the exit of outdated production capacity, with specific deadlines set for compliance in various industries [40].

Core Viewpoint - The global asset performance in July shows that the US dollar leads with a return of 3.19%, followed by commodities at 2.00%, global stocks at 1.30%, and the Chinese yuan at -0.50%, with global bonds declining by 1.49% [2] Group 1: Global Asset Trends - The liquidity of Japanese government bonds has deteriorated beyond the levels seen during the 2008 financial crisis, with the Bloomberg Japan Government Bond Liquidity Index surpassing the post-Lehman Brothers bankruptcy levels [4][10] - There is a divergence in the performance of cyclical stocks versus defensive stocks in the US market, closely linked to forward swap rates tied to interest rates, indicating optimism among investors regarding sustained high interest rates [12] - The relative performance of MSCI Japan bank stocks is highly correlated with the 10-year Japanese government bond yield, benefiting from rising inflation expectations [5][15] Group 2: Fund Manager Allocations - Global fund managers have increased their allocation to technology to the highest level since March 2009, while reducing positions in cash, consumer staples, banks, emerging markets, and commodities [18] - Emerging market sovereign debt has seen its yield spread over US Treasuries narrow to a 15-year low, reducing the attractiveness of this strategy despite strong performance earlier in the year [24][21] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The relative performance of European consumer staples has diverged from the gold-to-copper ratio since 2024, indicating a weakening relationship between macroeconomic conditions and defensive sectors [28] - The relative price-to-earnings ratio of European and US stock indices is closely related to the uncertainty of economic policies in both regions, with European valuations rising as US policy uncertainty increases [31] Group 4: Interest Rate Dynamics - The interest rate swap spread between China's 5-year and 1-year rates has turned positive for the first time in seven months, reflecting confidence in long-term inflation due to domestic policies and infrastructure projects [35] - The South African stock index has closely followed gold prices, with a cumulative increase of approximately 19% since 2025, outperforming other emerging market indices [38] Group 5: Market Sentiment - The volume of bullish options on the SPDR US Dollar ETF has been declining, suggesting a potential softening of the dollar, as indicated by the falling risk reversal options [41]

Group 1 - The article reviews the history of U.S. presidential visits to China since the normalization of relations in 1972, noting that there have been 10 official visits by U.S. presidents, with George W. Bush having the most visits [2][8] - It highlights that apart from Carter and Biden, all U.S. presidents since Nixon have visited China, with Biden having a video meeting with Xi Jinping in 2021 [2][8] - The tone of official reports regarding these visits has generally been positive and constructive [3][9] Group 2 - The article categorizes U.S. presidential visits as either "special" or "bundled," indicating that only Nixon, Reagan, and Clinton made special trips without other travel arrangements, while most visits since the 21st century have been part of broader Asia-Pacific itineraries [4][11] - It outlines significant upcoming international meetings in the Asia-Pacific region, including the ASEAN Summit in Malaysia and the APEC Leaders' Meeting in South Korea [12] Group 3 - The article provides a summary of key economic data from the U.S., including a Q2 GDP growth rate of 3%, which exceeded expectations of 2.6% [13] - It notes that July's non-farm payrolls were below expectations, with an increase of 73,000 jobs compared to an expected 104,000 [13] - The article also mentions that the ISM Manufacturing PMI for July was recorded at 48, below the expected 49.5 [13]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the recent political bureau meeting's focus on macroeconomic policies, fiscal tightening, and the promotion of consumption and investment, while addressing issues related to local government debt and market competition. Macroeconomic Policy - The meeting highlighted the need to implement more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies to fully release policy effects, moving away from the previous emphasis on extraordinary counter-cyclical adjustments [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) announced ongoing measures to stabilize employment and the economy, with a focus on policy research and timely implementation based on actual needs [2] Fiscal Policy - The meeting indicated a tightening stance on fiscal policy, emphasizing the need to actively and prudently resolve local government debt risks and prohibit new hidden debts [2] - The Ministry of Finance reiterated its commitment to accountability for hidden debt cases, emphasizing the importance of preventing and resolving hidden debt risks as a political task [2][5] Monetary Policy - The meeting did not mention "timely interest rate cuts," but emphasized maintaining ample liquidity in monetary policy to promote a decline in overall financing costs [2] Consumption - The meeting stressed the importance of enhancing service consumption and implementing special actions to boost consumption, particularly in cultural tourism and healthcare services [3] Investment - The meeting called for high-quality promotion of "two重" construction, with the NDRC planning to expedite the establishment of new policy financial tools and improve investment return levels in key sectors [4] Market Competition - The meeting outlined detailed plans to advance the construction of a unified national market, optimize market competition order, and regulate chaotic competition among enterprises [4][5] Capital Market - The meeting expressed support for enhancing the attractiveness and inclusiveness of domestic capital markets, aiming to consolidate the positive momentum in the capital market [6] Emerging Industries - Recent policies focus on emerging industries such as artificial intelligence, humanoid robots, and low-altitude economy, with the government promoting large-scale commercial applications of AI [7][19] Childcare Subsidies - The implementation of a childcare subsidy system was announced, providing annual subsidies of 3,600 yuan per child until the age of three, with an initial budget of approximately 90 billion yuan for 2025 [17][18] Bond Market - Starting August 8, the Ministry of Finance will resume the collection of value-added tax on interest income from newly issued government bonds [8]

Economic Outlook - The Huachuang Macro WEI index has slightly increased to 6.35% as of July 27, up from 5.84% on July 20, indicating a recovery in infrastructure and durable goods consumption [2][8] - The land premium rate has risen for three consecutive weeks, reaching 9% as of July 27, with a four-week average of 6.9%, compared to 5.47% in June [2][12] Consumption Trends - Service consumption has shown a decline, with subway ridership remaining stable at an average of 81.53 million daily in 27 cities, and domestic flight numbers increasing by only 0.8% year-on-year [3][12] - Retail sales of passenger vehicles have decreased, with a year-on-year growth of 5% as of July 27, down from 17% previously [3][12] - The sales of commercial residential properties have seen a significant drop, with a 22% year-on-year decrease in July compared to 17.6% in June [3][12] Production Insights - Infrastructure activity is performing better than last year, with asphalt plant operating rates at 33% as of July 30, up 6.7% year-on-year [3][16] - Coal throughput at Qinhuangdao port has shown a year-on-year growth of 11.8% in July, down from 24.4% in June [3][19] Trade Developments - Port container throughput has experienced a seasonal decline, with a week-on-week decrease of 6.5% as of July 27, while the four-week cumulative year-on-year growth is 5.6% [3][21] - The U.S. import figures have shown a significant drop, with a year-on-year decrease of 20.5% in July [3][22] Price Movements - A decline in commodity prices has been observed, with the South China index down 2.5% and the RJ/CRB commodity price index down 2.3% [3][37] - Prices for upstream solar and lithium carbonate have significantly decreased, with polysilicon futures down 3.1% and lithium carbonate futures down 13.7% [3][38] Debt and Interest Rates - The issuance of special bonds has exceeded the pace of the previous year, with a total of 2.82 trillion yuan issued, representing 64% of the annual target [4][43] - Interest rates have decreased, with the one-year, five-year, and ten-year government bond yields reported at 1.3734%, 1.5686%, and 1.7059%, respectively [4][51]