Core Viewpoint - The audit report highlights significant issues related to fiscal management and compliance, revealing a need for enhanced oversight and corrective measures in the use of public funds [4][6][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Overview of the Audit Work Report - The audit work report is primarily focused on fiscal matters, aiming to maintain economic order, improve the efficiency of fiscal fund usage, and promote integrity in governance [4][15]. - The National Audit Office, under the leadership of the State Council, is responsible for conducting audits and reporting findings to the Premier [4][15]. 2. Key Findings from the Current Audit Work Report - The report covers eight main areas, including audit rectification, central fiscal management, departmental budget execution, and major risk assessments [6][17]. - As of March 2025, over 6,540 billion yuan has been rectified in response to issues identified in the 2023 audit, with 1,710 regulations improved and 4,120 individuals held accountable [6][21]. 3. Major Issues Identified - The report indicates that since May 2024, 430 significant violations have been discovered, involving over 1,400 individuals and 630 billion yuan, marking a notable increase in reported issues [8][21]. - Specific areas of concern include the management of special bonds, pension fund misappropriations, and the misuse of funds intended for social welfare programs [10][22][23]. 4. Detailed Observations - The audit revealed that 1,325.97 billion yuan in issues related to local government special bonds was identified, with ongoing risks of hidden debts [10][22]. - Pension funds totaling 4.14 trillion yuan were audited, uncovering 601.61 billion yuan in issues, including 414.08 billion yuan misappropriated for other expenditures [11][23]. - New findings include improper fund allocation practices, with 37.91 billion yuan reported as fraudulently claimed, and ongoing violations of central regulations [12][24]. 5. Recommendations - The report suggests enhancing macroeconomic policy coordination, deepening reforms in key economic areas, and effectively preventing major economic risks [18][21].

联系人： 付春生（18482259975） 根据《证券期货投资者适当性管理办法》及配套指引，本资料仅面向华创证券客户中的金融机构专业投资者，请勿对本资料 进行任何形式的转发。若您不是华创证券客户中的金融机构专业投资者，请勿订阅、接收或使用本资料中的信息。本资料难 以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。感谢您的理解与配合。 文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 法律声明 华 创 证券研究所 定 位 为 面 向 专 业 投 资 者的研究团队，本资料仅适用于经认可的 专 业 投 资 者 ， 仅 供 在 新 媒 体 背景下研究 观 点 的 及 时 交 流 。 华 创证券不因任何订阅本资料的行为而将订 阅 人 视 为 公 司 的 客 户 。 普 通 投资者若使 用 本 资 料 ， 有 可 能 因 缺乏解读服务而对报告中的关键假设、评 级 、 目 标 价 等 内 容 产 生 理 解 上的歧义， 进 而 造 成 投 资 损 失 。 本资料来自华创证券研究所已经发布的研究报告，若对报告的摘编产生歧义，应以报告发布当日的完整内容为 准。须注意的是，本资料仅代表报告发 ...

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 袁玲玲（微信 Yuen43） 报告摘要 近一周，政策主要聚焦产业及主题投资领域。涉及"十五五"规划、国防军工、新能源材料、黄金等。 1 ）"十五五"规划 ： 6 月 25 日，总理在第十六届夏季达沃斯论坛开幕式提到，"过去 70 多年，我 们实施了 14 个五年规划，今年还将制定第 15 个五年规划"。 2 ）新能源材料 ： 6 月 23 日至 24 日，何立峰在河北调研新能源新材料产业发展，提出"持续推动 高端装备制造、智能光伏、清洁能源、新材料等企业创新发展，并综合整治内卷式竞争"。 3 ）国防军工 ： 6 月 24 日，国新办举行新闻发布会，介绍中国人民抗日战争暨世界反法西斯战争胜 利 80 周年纪念活动总体安排。 9 月 3 日，北京天安门广场将隆重举行纪念中国人民抗日战争暨世界 反法西斯战争胜利 80 周年大会，总书记将发表重要讲话。 4 ）黄金 ： 6 月 23 日，工信部等九部门印发《黄金产业高质量发展实施方案（ 2025-2027 年）》，提出到 2027 ...

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI shows a slight recovery, indicating a stabilization in the manufacturing sector, particularly in the midstream equipment manufacturing industry, which is performing better than other sectors [2][4][8]. Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Data - The manufacturing PMI for June is reported at 49.7%, up from 49.5% in the previous month [2][13]. - The production index increased to 51.0%, a rise of 0.3 percentage points from 50.7% [2][13]. - The new orders index rose to 50.2%, compared to 49.8% previously, while the new export orders index slightly improved to 47.7% from 47.5% [2][13]. - The employment index decreased to 47.9%, down from 48.1% [2][13]. - The supplier delivery time index is at 50.2%, showing stability from the previous month's 50.0% [2][13]. - The raw material inventory index increased to 48.0%, up from 47.4% [2][13]. Group 2: Sector Performance - The equipment manufacturing PMI is the highest among sectors at 51.4%, showing a significant recovery of 1.8 percentage points from April's 49.6% [4][8][9]. - The construction industry business activity index for June is at 52.8%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points from the previous month [15]. - The service industry business activity index slightly decreased to 50.1%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [15]. Group 3: Price Trends - The PMI output price index for June is at 46.2%, up from 44.7%, but remains below the neutral line for 13 consecutive months [5][14]. - The construction chain's overall price index decreased by 0.8% in June, indicating continued weakness in market activity [5][12]. - High-energy-consuming industries have a PMI of 47.8%, indicating insufficient market activity [5][12]. Group 4: Expectations and Future Outlook - The manufacturing production activity expectation index is at 52.0%, slightly down from 52.5% [15]. - The construction industry business activity expectation index increased to 53.9%, up from 52.4% [15]. - The service industry business activity expectation index is at 56.0%, down from 56.5% [15].

Core Viewpoint - The current macro asset allocation logic is primarily driven by the "look at stocks to do bonds" approach, as the main liquidity improvement is due to the migration of household deposits rather than central bank monetary easing [2][9][21]. Group 1: Macro Asset Allocation Analysis - Analyzing the stock-bond relationship is crucial in macro asset allocation, where the environment can either favor "look at stocks to do bonds" or "look at bonds to do stocks" [8][13]. - In a "look at stocks to do bonds" environment, the upward movement of stock prices influences bond trading behavior, while in a "look at bonds to do stocks" environment, falling interest rates affect stock market valuations [8][13]. - The current liquidity improvement is characterized by a significant migration of household deposits to non-bank financial institutions, with approximately 6.2 trillion yuan moving in the first five months of 2025, marking the highest level since 2009 [9][21]. Group 2: Special Characteristics of Current Liquidity - The current migration of household deposits is unique as it does not follow an improvement in economic expectations, contrasting with past trends where such migrations occurred after economic recovery [3][28]. - The "stabilize the stock market" policy from the top down has limited the extent to which risk appetite can express downward movements in the stock market [4][28]. - Financial regulations established in 2017 and 2022 have heightened vigilance against financial practices that lead to asset bubbles, impacting the current liquidity dynamics [5][28]. Group 3: Implications of Current Trends - The current environment suggests that as the stock market strengthens, the risk of systemic asset price bubbles increases, leading to tighter monetary policy and pressure on the bond market [30]. - Conversely, if the stock market weakens, the central bank's focus on stabilizing market expectations increases, potentially leading to short-term dual bullish trends in both stocks and bonds [30].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current economic trends in China, highlighting both upward and downward movements in various sectors, including consumer spending, external demand, and real estate sales. Group 1: Economic Upturn - Durable goods consumption shows an upward trend, with passenger car retail sales increasing by 24.8% year-on-year as of June 22, compared to 13.3% in May [1] - External demand is improving, as indicated by the Markit Manufacturing PMI for major overseas economies averaging around 51.1% in June, up from 50.9% in May, with contributions mainly from Japan, India, and the UK [2] - Land premium rates have rebounded from low levels, reaching 7.3% in the week of June 22, compared to an average of 3.2% over the past three weeks and 4.93% in May [3] Group 2: Economic Downturn - The Huachuang Macro WEI index has slightly declined to 7.63% as of June 22, down from 7.94% on June 15 [2] - Service consumption metrics, such as subway ridership and flight numbers, are close to last year's levels, with subway ridership averaging 77.42 million daily in 27 cities, a 0.5% increase year-on-year [2] - Real estate sales are declining, with residential sales in 67 cities showing a year-on-year decrease of 16% as of June 27, compared to a 13% decline in May [2] Group 3: Special Bonds and Interest Rates - As of June 30, 2025, new special bonds issued have reached 2.16 trillion, accounting for 49.1% of the annual issuance plan, faster than last year's 37.8% [3] - Interest rates have increased, with DR001 at 1.3683%, DR007 at 1.6968%, and R007 at 1.9201% as of June 27, showing mixed changes compared to June 20 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The industrial enterprises' profits in May showed a significant decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 9.0%, compared to a previous increase of 2.9% [14][15]. Group 1: Revenue Changes - In May, the revenue growth rate for industrial enterprises was 0.8%, down from 2.6% in April, indicating a low level of growth [3][6]. - Cumulative revenue growth from January to May was 2.7%, with an expected annual growth rate of 2.1% for 2024 [3][6]. - Factors contributing to the decline include insufficient effective demand, falling industrial product prices, and fluctuations in short-term factors [3][6]. - The export delivery value growth rate fell to 0.6% in May, and the production and sales rate showed a year-on-year decline of 0.8% [3][6]. - Revenue growth varied across sectors, with mining showing a decline of 15.9%, while upstream manufacturing had a growth of 3.06% [3][6]. Group 2: Profit Margin Analysis - The profit margin for industrial enterprises in May was under pressure, with a year-on-year decrease of 9.72%, compared to a previous increase of 0.28% [10][14]. - The manufacturing sector's midstream profit margin fluctuated significantly, with a May margin of 5.38%, down from 5.74% in April [10][14]. - The midstream manufacturing profit growth rate in May was -3.18%, a stark contrast to the previous growth of 21.23% [10][14]. Group 3: Industry Performance - In May, the mining industry experienced a growth rate of -36.7%, while manufacturing saw a decline of 4.0% [17]. - The electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply sector had a growth rate of 0.95% [17]. - Within manufacturing, upstream growth was -8.82%, midstream was -3.18%, and downstream was -3.9% [17]. - Notable sectors with higher profit growth included non-ferrous metal mining (24.5%), agricultural and sideline food processing (14.9%), and transportation equipment (47.6%) [17].

Core Viewpoint - The central theme of the article revolves around the changes and consistencies in the monetary policy framework as discussed in the second quarter monetary policy committee meeting of 2025, highlighting a shift towards strengthening domestic circulation and a flexible approach to policy implementation [2][3][5]. Group 1: Changes Worth Noting - In terms of policy tone, the meeting removed the phrase "combining the strategy of expanding domestic demand with deepening supply-side structural reforms" and added "placing greater emphasis on strengthening domestic circulation while coordinating the relationship between total supply and total demand" [3][7]. - The monetary policy approach has shifted from "timely reduction of reserve requirements and interest rates" to "flexibly grasping the implementation intensity and rhythm of policies" [4][8]. - The statement regarding exchange rates has been altered, removing "strengthening market management and resolutely correcting market pro-cyclical behaviors" [4][9]. Group 2: Consistencies Worth Noting - The central bank maintained the expression of "moderately loose monetary policy" while also emphasizing the need to "smooth the transmission mechanism of monetary policy, improve the efficiency of fund utilization, and prevent fund idling" [5][10]. - The balance between moderately loose monetary policy and preventing fund idling is significantly influenced by the scale of residents' deposits moving to non-bank institutions [10][17]. Group 3: Understanding the Central Bank's Liquidity Injection - Over the past two decades, the central bank's liquidity injection methods have evolved, transitioning from buying foreign exchange (2003-2013) to using re-lending and reverse repos (2014-2023), and now incorporating more comprehensive methods such as open market operations and securities swaps [11][19]. - This change in liquidity injection strategy indicates that the central bank's current approach aims not only to support the credit expansion capacity of commercial banks but also to stabilize liquidity in the stock and bond markets [11][19].

Core Viewpoint - The weakening support of real estate for the economy in recent years and the uncertainty of exports as a future factor, especially for major economic provinces, necessitates a focus on the economic uncertainty factors related to real estate and exports, as well as the corresponding policy countermeasures [2][12]. Group 1: Economic Uncertainty Factors - The economic uncertainty factor is constructed by merging real estate and export factors, with specific indicators measuring the reliance of local economies and finances on these sectors [12][15]. - The correlation coefficients for economic uncertainty factors and policy factors with GDP national share are 0.70 and 0.72, indicating that larger provinces face greater economic uncertainty and have larger policy factors [3][15]. - Provinces are categorized into three groups based on their economic uncertainty and policy factors: 1. Economic uncertainty factor > Policy factor (14 provinces, 48% of national GDP share) 2. Economic uncertainty factor < Policy factor (16 provinces, 48% of national GDP share) 3. Economic uncertainty factor ≈ Policy factor (1 province, Beijing) [3][16]. Group 2: Real Estate Factor - The real estate industry chain's contribution to GDP and land finance dependency are key indicators, with major economic provinces showing higher reliance [5][21]. - In 2024, the real estate industry chain's GDP contribution for major provinces is 14.1%, compared to the national average of 13.5%, indicating a higher concentration in major provinces [5][19]. - Land finance dependency for major provinces is 41%, significantly higher than the national average of 24.3%, with provinces like Jiangsu and Sichuan exceeding 40% [21][23]. Group 3: Export Factor - The export factor is more pronounced in eastern provinces, with major provinces accounting for 65% of national exports while only representing 44% of national GDP [6][26]. - The export-to-GDP ratio for eastern provinces is significantly higher than the national average, with Zhejiang at 43.3% and Guangdong at 41.6% [6][27]. - Some central and western provinces also show notable export dependencies, particularly in exports to the U.S., with Shanxi at 27.9% and Henan at 22.1% [7][29]. Group 4: Policy Factor - The policy factor is linked to economic strength, with major provinces receiving lower shares of fiscal resources compared to their GDP contributions [8][34]. - In 2024, the total fiscal resources for major provinces amount to 5.62 trillion yuan, accounting for 30.3% of the national total, which is lower than their GDP share of 44.4% [9][38]. - Financial resources for major provinces are substantial but have seen a decline in national share, dropping from 53% in 2022 to 48% in 2024 [40][42].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses various macroeconomic trends and investment strategies, emphasizing the importance of understanding global economic shifts and their implications for investment decisions [3][4]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Analysis - The report highlights the "restructuring of global order" as a significant theme, suggesting that investors should capture trading signals related to this shift [3]. - It notes the contrasting economic styles of Guangdong and Jiangsu, indicating regional differences in economic performance and investment opportunities [3]. - The article analyzes the impact of U.S. tariffs on inflation, presenting five key reflections on how these tariffs influence the economic landscape [3]. Group 2: Financial Data Insights - The report provides insights into industrial profits, indicating that corporate pressures may be transmitted to the asset side, affecting overall financial stability [3]. - It discusses the dual mission of consumption in the economy, reflecting on how consumer behavior influences economic data [3]. - The article examines the reasons behind unexpected increases in economic indicators, particularly focusing on PMI data [3]. Group 3: Policy Tracking - The report tracks fiscal support for the real estate sector, providing insights into government policies aimed at stabilizing this critical industry [4]. - It discusses the expansion of supervisory laws, indicating a broader regulatory environment that may impact investment strategies [4]. - The article emphasizes ongoing reforms and opening-up policies, suggesting that these will continue to shape the investment landscape [4]. Group 4: Annual and Semi-Annual Reports - The report includes projections for 2025, indicating a focus on long-term investment strategies and market outlooks [4]. - It discusses mid-term strategies for 2024, emphasizing the importance of pricing strategies in investment decisions [4]. - The article reflects on the macroeconomic environment of 2023, providing insights into potential growth areas [4].