文 ： 华创证券首席经济学家 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 袁玲玲（微信 Yuen43） 报告摘要 受假期天数增加影响，元旦出行、零售数据或实现较高增长，出入境、免税退税景气度更高。往后看，今年将经历最长"元旦+春节"假期（共12天，较去年增 加3天），或需关注其对宏观数据环比读数的影响。 一、假期天数增加，推动出行数据高增 今年元旦假期共3天，去年仅为1天，且部分游客选择"请3休8"的超长拼假模式，进一步放大了差异。据交通运输部数据，假期3天，全社会跨区域人员流动量 同比增长19.62%。 分出行方式看 ：1）游客或更多为中短途出行。民航增速相对较低为10%。2）中长途出行中，出入境景气度更高。国家移民局数据显示，出入境人数增长近 3成。 二、商品零售高增，但地区冷暖不均 从地区数据看，假期商品零售高增，但地区间差异明显。北京、河北、湖北武汉、湖南（双位数增长）>江苏南京苏州、山东青岛（8%-10%）>上海、四川 （分别为2.5%、0.9%）。（注：上海、河北、四川为前两日数据、其他为假期三天） 免税退税商品实现更高增长。据海口海关统计，假期三天，海南离岛免税购物金额同比+128 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the escalating conflict between the United States and Venezuela, focusing on Venezuela's natural resources and export situation [2]. Group 1: Population and Geography - Venezuela is located in the northern part of South America, covering an area of 916,400 square kilometers, with an estimated population of approximately 28.4 million in 2024 [3][10]. - The country shares borders with Guyana to the east, Brazil to the south, Colombia to the west, and has a northern coastline along the Caribbean Sea. Major ports include Cabello Port, La Guaira Port, and Maracaibo Port, with José Port and Maracaibo Port being the main oil export ports [3][10]. Group 2: Political and Military Overview - Venezuela operates under a presidential system, with the president serving as the head of state, government, and armed forces for a term of six years without term limits [4][13]. - The country has approximately 200,000 active military personnel and around 8 million militia reservists [4][14]. Group 3: Major Natural Resources - Venezuela holds the world's largest proven oil reserves, estimated at about 300 billion barrels, accounting for approximately 17% of global reserves [5][14]. - The country ranks eighth globally in proven natural gas reserves, with about 201 trillion cubic feet, representing around 2.9% of the world's total [5][17]. - The official gold reserves are approximately 53 tons, with an additional 31 tons held in the Bank of England since 2018. However, estimates of untapped gold reserves vary significantly [5][21]. - Iron ore reserves are reported to be between 2.2 billion to 4 billion tons, constituting about 1-2% of global reserves, though the U.S. Geological Survey does not include Venezuela's iron ore data [6][24]. - Other mineral resources include bauxite (34.8 billion tons), titanium (39 million tons), diamonds (4.1 billion carats), coal (730 million tons), and nickel (490,000 tons), with respective global shares of approximately 4.4%, 7%, 0.1%, 0.4% [6][26]. - Venezuela has abundant hydropower and forest resources, with a forest coverage rate of about 52%, significantly higher than the global average of 32% [7][27]. Group 4: Major Export Situation - The primary export destinations for Venezuela are the United States, China, and Spain, with total exports in 2023 amounting to approximately $7.63 billion. Exports to the U.S., China, and Spain were about $3.81 billion, $740 million, and $670 million, respectively [8][28]. - Key export products include oil and its derivatives (60% of total exports), basic metals (iron and aluminum), and nitrogen fertilizers [8][28]. - As of November 2025, Venezuela's oil production is projected to be around 934,000 barrels per day, with an estimated export volume of 656,000 barrels per day in 2024 [8][31].

Core Conclusion - The article highlights that the initial and continuing unemployment claims in the U.S. have decreased and are better than expected. It also notes the decline in overseas commodity prices and the continuous drop in U.S. gasoline prices. Upcoming important economic data includes December non-farm payrolls, ISM manufacturing PMI, and ISM services PMI [2]. Group 1: Upcoming Economic Data - Key economic data releases for the week of January 5-9 include the U.S. December ISM manufacturing PMI on January 5, ISM services PMI on January 7, and non-farm payrolls on January 9. In the Eurozone, the December CPI preliminary data will be released on January 7, followed by November PPI and unemployment rate on January 8, and November retail sales on January 9 [3][4]. Group 2: Weekly Economic Activity Index - The U.S. economic activity index remains stable, with the WEI index at 2.23% for the week ending December 27, 2025, compared to 2.21% the previous week. In Germany, the WAI index has shown an upward trend, rising to 0.14% for the week ending December 21, 2025, from 0.1% the previous week [5][18]. Group 3: Demand - U.S. Redbook commercial retail sales year-on-year growth has rebounded to 7.6% for the week ending December 26, 2025, up from 7.2% the previous week. Additionally, the mortgage loan rate in the U.S. has slightly decreased, with the 30-year mortgage rate at 6.15% as of December 31, 2025, down from 6.18% the previous week [6][20][23]. Group 4: Employment - Initial unemployment claims in the U.S. fell to 199,000 for the week ending December 27, 2025, better than the expected 218,000. Continuing claims also decreased from 1.913 million to 1.866 million, against an expectation of 1.902 million [7][25]. Group 5: Prices - Commodity prices have declined, with the RJ/CRB commodity price index showing a week-on-week decrease of 0.9% as of January 2. U.S. gasoline prices also continued to drop, reaching $2.69 per gallon for the week ending December 29, 2025, down 1.1% from the previous week [8][31]. Group 6: Financial Conditions - Financial conditions in the U.S. and Eurozone have marginally tightened. The Bloomberg financial conditions index for the U.S. was 0.795 on January 2, down from 0.807 the previous week. In the Eurozone, the index decreased to 1.619 from 1.651 [14][33]. Group 7: Fiscal - The U.S. federal funding expenditure for the calendar year 2025 is approximately $7.765 trillion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.8%. This is an increase from $7.34 trillion in 2024, which had a growth rate of 3% [10][45].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of global asset classes in 2025, highlighting significant trends and shifts in investment dynamics, particularly focusing on the impact of geopolitical events, monetary policy changes, and emerging market conditions. Group 1: Global Asset Performance - In 2025, global asset performance ranked as follows: global stocks (21.20%) > global bonds (8.17%) > RMB (4.44%) > 0% > commodities (-0.20%) > USD (-9.37%) [2] - Precious metals experienced a historic bull market, with gold and silver prices increasing by 64.58% and 147.95% respectively, driven by central bank purchases, geopolitical tensions, and concerns over USD credit [4][12] - The MSCI Emerging Markets index outperformed the MSCI Developed Markets index by 6.2 percentage points, indicating a favorable environment for emerging markets amid a weaker USD [6][50] Group 2: U.S. Market Dynamics - The U.S. stock market showed resilience, with the S&P 500 index rising over 16% in 2025, marking the third consecutive year of double-digit returns [6][48] - Concerns over an "AI technology bubble" led to significant volatility among major U.S. tech stocks, with a 27.37% drop in their price-to-earnings ratios early in the year [5][21] - Fund managers expressed expectations of rising interest rates and favored high-quality earnings, with 75% anticipating a steepening yield curve in the next 12 months [4][41] Group 3: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - The announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" by the Trump administration led to market volatility, with gold prices surging by 14.8% in two weeks, contributing to the decline of the "American exceptionalism" narrative [4][17] - Japan's stock index and long-term bond yields reached historical highs, with the Nikkei 225 index increasing by over 25% due to a combination of wage-inflation spirals and monetary policy normalization [7][53] - The oil market remained weak, with WTI crude oil prices fluctuating between $55 and $80 per barrel, reflecting cautious global demand and supply pressures [8][64] Group 4: Currency and Crypto Trends - The offshore RMB exchange rate fell below 7.0 against the USD, with a 9.4% decline in the USD index throughout the year, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards the RMB [8][66] - The "Genius Act" led to extreme volatility in the cryptocurrency market, with Bitcoin's price soaring from approximately $80,000 to $158,000 before experiencing a significant drop, ending the year down 6.5% [8][60]

Core Viewpoint - The current phase of macro liquidity being the most accommodative may be coming to an end, with expectations of a marginal decline in government debt growth and loan growth in the short term, potentially leading to a continued decline in M2 year-on-year in the first quarter [2][3] Group 1: Understanding Liquidity - Liquidity assessment includes two dimensions: the liquidity of the real economy and the liquidity of the financial market, where the former affects future price and profit trends, and the latter influences current capital market transaction volumes [6][14] - The two main factors affecting liquidity are the growth scale of M2 and the scale of residents' deposit migration [8][16] Group 2: Changes in Liquidity Conditions - M2 year-on-year growth may be declining due to the "escape from extraordinary" policy, with expectations that the marginal increase in government debt in 2026 may be less than in 2025, and a potential decrease in loan growth could further drag down M2 [9][22][23] - The recent increase in market volatility suggests that the probability of accelerated migration of residents' deposits is low, which may lead to a decline in macro liquidity [2][25] Group 3: Differences in Current Liquidity Conditions - The current phase of liquidity contraction differs from historical patterns in three key aspects: 1. The impact on corporate profits is different, as the midstream sector is currently the most stable, with its demand less sensitive to domestic liquidity conditions [3][32] 2. The relationship between stocks and bonds has changed, with current indicators suggesting that stocks have a relative advantage in allocation compared to bonds [3][39] 3. The policy response may differ, as the current economic dynamics are more aligned with high-tech innovation and direct financing rather than traditional real estate and local financing platforms [3][41]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for a "good start" in the Chinese economy for 2026, emphasizing the need for careful evaluation of fiscal income, debt issuance, and project investments as indicators of economic performance [2][3]. Group 1: Income "Good Start"? - The logic states that fiscal expenditure equals fiscal income plus debt, and the assessment of fiscal income's upward momentum at the beginning of 2026 is crucial [4][21]. - The conclusion indicates that fiscal income at the beginning of 2026 may not show significant upward movement, particularly for land sales revenue, which is expected to face downward risks [5][23]. - The analysis highlights that the "income tail effect" from 2025 may not be significant, leading to insufficient upward momentum for Q1 2026 income [6][24]. Group 2: Debt "Good Start"? - The logic reiterates that fiscal expenditure equals fiscal income plus debt, focusing on the issuance scale of government bonds at the beginning of 2026 [8][31]. - The conclusion suggests that the scale of new government debt issuance at the beginning of 2026 may not be significantly high [9][33]. - The analysis indicates that new local government debt issuance in Q1 2026 is unlikely to exceed that of Q1 2025, based on the disclosure of local debt issuance plans [10][36]. Group 3: Project "Good Start"? - The logic emphasizes that "funds follow projects," and the performance of local projects at the beginning of the year is a key reference for fiscal efforts [12][44]. - The conclusion presents a pragmatic qualitative assessment, with quantitative indicators from central authorities showing moderate expectations, while major provinces' project confirmations are pending until mid-January [13][45]. - The analysis focuses on whether there will be significant net expansion in major provinces' budgets in January and whether the investment growth rate of major projects in 2026 can improve [16][47].

Core Viewpoint - The December PMI data shows a rebound in manufacturing activity, driven by year-end factors, seasonal effects, and external demand, indicating resilience in the manufacturing sector [4][5][8]. Group 1: PMI Data Overview - The manufacturing PMI for December is reported at 50.1%, up from 49.2% in the previous month [2][21]. - The production index increased to 51.7%, a rise of 1.7 percentage points from 50.0% [21]. - The new orders index rose to 50.8%, compared to 49.2% previously, while the new export orders index improved to 49.0% from 47.6% [21]. - The employment index slightly decreased to 48.2% from 48.4%, and the supplier delivery time index remained stable at 50.2% [21]. - The raw material inventory index was reported at 47.8%, up from 47.3% [21]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - **Year-End Factors**: Anticipation of next year's investments has led to increased funding allocations, boosting the construction PMI to 52.8% from 49.6% [5][12]. The consumer goods manufacturing sector also saw a year-end rebound, with December figures at 51.4% for 2024 and 50.4% for 2025 [12]. - **Quarter-End Effects**: The production index typically peaks at quarter-end, with December's production index at 51.7%, reflecting a seasonal increase [6][14]. - **External Demand**: The new export orders index rose to 49.0%, indicating strong external demand, supported by a 7.2% increase in port container throughput [8][18]. Group 3: Additional Insights - **Price Trends**: The purchasing price index remains high at 53.1%, while the factory price index is low at 48.9%, indicating ongoing pricing pressures [22]. - **Inventory Trends**: There are signs of inventory replenishment, with the purchasing index at 51.1%, up from 49.5% [22]. - **Sector Performance**: The construction sector's business activity index rose significantly, while the service sector index was slightly below the neutral mark at 49.9% [22].

Core Viewpoint - The article outlines key policy directions and developments in China's economic and financial landscape as the year comes to a close, focusing on fiscal, monetary, and industrial strategies for 2026. Fiscal Policy - The National Fiscal Work Conference emphasized expanding fiscal spending to ensure necessary expenditure levels, optimizing government bond tools, and enhancing fiscal-financial collaboration to amplify policy effectiveness [3][27]. - The report on the 2025 fiscal budget indicated a focus on directing new special bond quotas towards regions with well-prepared projects and high investment efficiency, while also addressing local government hidden debt issues [3][11]. - The Ministry of Finance and other regulatory bodies are committed to strict measures against the creation of new hidden debts, reinforcing accountability for local governments [3][15]. Monetary and Capital Markets - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) highlighted the importance of integrating incremental and stock policies to support key sectors such as domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and medium enterprises [4][15]. - The PBOC's Financial Stability Report for 2025 aims to create a favorable environment for long-term investments in the A-share market, enhancing the scale and proportion of various long-term funds [4][29]. Industrial Development - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) called for optimizing traditional industries, particularly in steel and petrochemicals, by balancing supply and demand and promoting structural reforms [5][26]. - The NDRC's recent initiatives include fostering innovation in emerging sectors like new energy vehicles and lithium batteries, while addressing issues of "involution" in competition to maintain a fair market environment [5][26]. - The Industrial and Information Technology Conference outlined strategies to stabilize manufacturing investments, enhance industrial chain resilience, and promote technological innovation [5][22]. Encouragement of Foreign Investment - The updated Encouragement Directory for Foreign Investment aims to attract more foreign capital into advanced manufacturing, modern services, and high-tech sectors, particularly in central and western regions of China [17][19]. - The 2025 version of the directory includes 1,679 entries, with a net increase of 205 entries compared to the previous version, reflecting a strategic focus on sectors like smart manufacturing and modern service industries [18][19]. Infrastructure Development - The NDRC's article on modern infrastructure emphasizes the need for high-quality construction of strategic transport corridors and energy networks, as well as enhancing safety measures for critical infrastructure [21][26]. - The focus on developing a comprehensive infrastructure system includes promoting low-altitude and hub economies, as well as ensuring robust safety protocols for major energy projects [21][26].

Core Viewpoint - The article focuses on the recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) and challenges the prevailing narrative that links the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts to RMB appreciation and subsequent damage to export competitiveness [2][3]. Group 1: Current RMB Exchange Rate Narrative - The popular narrative suggests that the Federal Reserve's likely interest rate cuts will lead to a weaker USD, thus causing the RMB to appreciate and harming China's export competitiveness. This narrative is based on several assumptions that require validation [3]. - The relationship between the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and the USD's weakness is not necessarily direct, as historical data shows a low correlation between the two [4]. - The assumption that narrowing interest rate differentials between China and the US will lead to RMB appreciation is flawed, as the correlation between funding rate differentials and the USD/CNY exchange rate is weak [5]. Group 2: RMB Appreciation Analysis - The article divides the RMB appreciation observed this year into two phases: the first phase from mid-April to November, driven primarily by policy support, and the second phase from late November to the present, driven by market supply and demand [9][10]. - In the first phase, the RMB middle rate appreciated from 7.21 to 7.08, largely due to policy interventions, while in the second phase, market dynamics took over, leading to a different adjustment mechanism [14]. - Factors contributing to the recent market-driven appreciation include the release of previously held foreign exchange reserves and seasonal trends in net settlement of foreign exchange by enterprises [16]. Group 3: Future Outlook for RMB Exchange Rate - The article anticipates that the RMB will maintain stable fluctuations against the USD through 2026, with limited potential for significant appreciation [17]. - Current valuation metrics indicate that the RMB is reasonably priced, with deviations from expected levels being minimal [18]. - The central bank's policy appears to be aimed at preventing excessive appreciation of the RMB, as indicated by recent trends in the counter-cyclical factor [22]. - The supply-demand dynamics suggest that while there may be short-term volatility, the underlying support for sustained appreciation is not strong enough at this time [24][27]. - External factors, particularly the USD index, are expected to limit the pressure for a prolonged decline in the USD [28]. - Overall, the RMB's future trajectory will depend on complex factors, with a preference for stable two-way fluctuations rather than significant appreciation [29].

Economic Overview - The Huachuang Macro WEI index has shown a slight recovery, reaching 5.22% as of December 21, up 0.06 percentage points from the previous week [2] - Real estate sales are improving, with the year-on-year decline in residential property transaction area narrowing to -19% for the week ending December 26, compared to -34% in November [2][3] - Infrastructure construction is seeing improvements, with the operating rate of asphalt plants rising to 31.3%, an increase of 3.7 percentage points from the previous week [2][3] Price Trends - Prices of major commodities have increased, with COMEX gold closing at $4546.2 per ounce (up 4.6%), LME copper at $12218 per ton (up 4.1%), and Brent crude oil at $60.6 per barrel (up 1.4%) [2][34] - The price of second-hand homes has decreased by 0.2% in first-tier cities and nationwide, with a cumulative decline of 6.3% in first-tier cities this year [37] Consumer Demand - Retail sales of passenger cars remain low, with a year-on-year growth rate of -11% in the third week of December, compared to -17% previously [13] - The average land premium rate across 100 cities was 1.6% in December, down from 2.7% in November [13] Production Insights - The operating rates in various industries are weak, with notable declines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving machines and full-steel tires [15] - The asphalt plant operating rate has improved, indicating a slight recovery in infrastructure [15] Trade Dynamics - Port container throughput has decreased by 5.9% week-on-week as of December 21, with a year-on-year increase of 9.1% [19] - The shipping market is showing positive trends, with the Shanghai export container freight index rising by 6.7% [20] Interest Rates - The yield on 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year government bonds are reported at 1.2872%, 1.5948%, and 1.8376% respectively, with mixed changes compared to the previous week [47]