文 ： 华创证券首席经济学家 张瑜 执业证号：S0360518090001 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 韩港（微信 HGK1366） 报告摘要 首先，明确口径。国家电网"以投资建设运营电网为核心业务"，但国家电网主要公布电网投资数据，固定资 产投资数据仅零星公布，从 2021 年数据来看，固定资产投资、电网投资分别为 4972 、 4730 亿元，二者 近乎等价。其次，据新华社报道，十五五时期国家电网固定资产投资预计增长 40% ，作为对比，十四五时 期，电网投资约 2.77 万亿、可比增速为 16.4% （未公布固定资产投资数据）， 即十五五时期 40% 的投 资增速较十四五（ 16.4% 左右）有较大提升。 第二，可能的考量？ 参考两方面信息： 1 ） 2025 年 12 月，国家电网公司党组会议上提及"坚决把党中央 扩大内需的决策 部署 落到实处，充分发挥电网基础支撑和投资拉动作用，以更大的力度、更实的举措助力扩内需、稳增长"； 2 ） 2025 年 12 月国家发展改革委、国家能源局印发《关于促进电网高质量发展的指导意见》，提及"加大 电网投资力度。 落实国家重大战略部署，适度超前、不 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of anti-corruption measures and structural monetary policies in China, highlighting the need for strict political discipline and the promotion of economic growth through targeted financial support [2][3][4]. Group 1: Anti-Corruption Focus - The Central Commission for Discipline Inspection (CCDI) meeting underscored the need for strict adherence to political and election discipline, aiming to eliminate individuals with dual loyalties and inconsistent actions [2][9]. - Key sectors targeted for corruption eradication include finance, state-owned enterprises, energy, education, and public bidding, with a focus on new forms of corruption and hidden issues [2][14]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Adjustments - The People's Bank of China announced a 0.25 percentage point reduction in various structural monetary policy tool rates, aiming to support small and private enterprises [3][15]. - New measures include increasing the quota for agricultural and small enterprise loans by 500 billion yuan and establishing a separate quota of 1 trillion yuan for private enterprise loans [15][16]. Group 3: Financial and Capital Market Developments - The National Financial Regulatory Administration emphasized the need to improve the quality of small financial institutions and regulate industry order, while the China Securities Regulatory Commission focused on enhancing market monitoring and preventing excessive speculation [4][17]. - The minimum margin requirement for financing on three exchanges was raised from 80% to 100%, indicating a tightening of market conditions [4][11]. Group 4: Industry Initiatives - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology outlined plans for the development of the new energy vehicle sector, including the acceleration of solid-state battery technology and advanced autonomous driving [4][12]. - A plan for the high-quality development of industrial internet platforms was introduced, aiming for over 450 influential platforms and a connection of more than 120 million industrial devices by 2028 [4][12]. Group 5: National Reserve Law - The National Development and Reform Commission released a draft for the National Reserve Security Law, which includes provisions for the storage of essential agricultural products, energy, and emergency supplies [5][19].

Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the export structure of China in 2025, highlighting the significant contributions from emerging markets and the contrasting performance of developed markets, particularly the U.S. and non-U.S. regions [2][16]. Group 1: Regional Structure Characteristics - Emerging markets are showing significant contributions, while the internal dynamics of developed markets, particularly between the U.S. and non-U.S. regions, are largely offsetting each other [5][17]. - In 2025, the share of exports to emerging markets is projected to be 49.1%, an increase of approximately 2.5 percentage points from 2024. Exports to the U.S. are expected to decline to 11.1%, down about 3.5 percentage points, while exports to non-U.S. developed markets will rise to 39.8%, up about 1 percentage point [17][18]. Group 2: Commodity Structure Characteristics By Usage - Intermediate goods are expected to contribute significantly, while consumer goods are projected to have a negative contribution, and capital goods are expected to remain stable. From 2017 to the first 11 months of 2025, the share of intermediate goods in exports is expected to rise from 41.9% to 47.4%, while consumer goods will decline from 36.6% to 28.7% [6][22]. - The contribution rate of intermediate goods to export growth is expected to increase from 55.8% in 2018 to 85% in 2025, while consumer goods' contribution will drop from 24.7% to -34% [6][22]. By Category - Four types of goods are identified based on economic conditions: 1. **Sustained Growth Goods**: High export growth over the past two years, including transportation equipment, pharmaceuticals, and machinery [7][25]. 2. **Reversal Goods**: Poor performance in 2024 but better in 2025, such as non-metallic products and chemicals [7][26]. 3. **Weak Sustained Goods**: Consistently low growth, including umbrellas and toys [7][26]. 4. **Diminishing Momentum Goods**: Good performance in 2024 but poor in 2025, including furniture and textiles [7][26]. Group 3: Key Regional Export Commodity Structure - The analysis focuses on the export commodity structure to developed markets (U.S. and Europe) and emerging markets. In 2024, exports to these regions accounted for about 67% of China's total exports [28]. - In the U.S., there is an overall decline, with intermediate goods showing some resilience [29]. - In the EU, intermediate and capital goods are expected to balance each other, while consumer goods will negatively impact growth [35]. - In ASEAN, intermediate goods are expected to see significant growth, while consumer goods will contribute negatively [39]. - In Africa, there is expected to be overall growth, with capital and intermediate goods each contributing about 40% [43]. - In the Middle East, growth is expected to be balanced across all types of goods [49]. - In Latin America, intermediate goods are projected to grow by over 60%, with consumer and capital goods showing slight growth [54]. - In Central Asia (excluding Russia), the contribution of intermediate and capital goods is expected to be 7:4, with consumer goods negatively impacting growth [59].

Economic Outlook - The real estate sales decline is narrowing, with residential sales area in 67 cities down by 23% year-on-year as of January 16, compared to a 33% decline earlier in the month [2] - The OECD composite leading indicator for G7 countries has slightly rebounded to 0.60% in December, indicating potential stabilization or improvement in China's export growth by May [2][25] - Commodity prices are rising, with gold at $4,590 per ounce (up 2.6%) and crude oil prices increasing to $59.4 per barrel (up 0.5%) [2][44] Economic Indicators - The Huachuang macro WEI index has decreased to 5.75% as of January 11, down 0.85 percentage points from the previous week, indicating a decline in economic activity since late September [3][9] - Retail sales of passenger cars have seen a significant decline of 32% year-on-year as of January 11, compared to a 14% decline in December [3][14] - The operating rates in most industries are weaker than the same period last year, with notable declines in construction and industrial production [3][19] Trade and Exports - The OECD leading indicator suggests a potential increase in China's export growth by May, as it typically leads export trends by about five months [25] - China's export volume has shown mixed results, with a decrease in the number of cargo ships to the U.S. by 30.2% year-on-year as of January 17 [27] Prices and Inflation - Commodity prices are generally rising, with significant increases in lithium carbonate prices (up 12.7%) and polysilicon prices (up 7.5%) [44][45] - The average land premium rate in 100 cities has decreased to 1.39% as of January 11, down from 1.64% in December [14] Interest Rates and Bonds - As of January 16, the yields on 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year government bonds are 1.2424%, 1.6099%, and 1.8424%, respectively, reflecting slight declines from the previous week [4][57] - The government is planning to issue 850 billion yuan in new local bonds, including 644 billion yuan in special bonds, to support debt clearance efforts [49][50]

Core Viewpoints - The current liquidity assessment indicates that overall liquidity remains relatively ample, supporting financial asset valuations, despite a decline in M1 and a significant drop in enterprise deposits [3][4][12] - Future liquidity is expected to face challenges due to a decrease in interbank certificates of deposit and rising loan bases, leading to a forecasted decline in M2 growth in the first quarter of 2026 [4][5] - The current monetary policy focuses on structural adjustments and timing, with an emphasis on stimulating investment in supported sectors while controlling capacity expansion in weaker demand areas [8][36][38] Group 1: Reasons for M2 Year-on-Year Growth - M2 increased by 8.5% year-on-year in December, with a monthly addition of 3.3 trillion yuan, driven by a narrowing drag from other factors and an increase in bank claims on non-financial institutions [14][15][44] - The narrowing drag from other factors is attributed to a decrease in bond issuance and a return of funds to the non-bank sector due to the maturity of interbank certificates of deposit [18][19] - The growth in bank claims on non-financial institutions is primarily from increased loans to enterprises, but this growth is expected to be unsustainable due to high base effects and weak demand [25][40] Group 2: Reasons for M1 Year-on-Year Decline - The new M1 decreased by 3.8% year-on-year in December, primarily due to a decline in the old M1, while household demand for current deposits remained stable [28][31] Group 3: Impact of December Financial Data on Liquidity Assessment - The ratio of new household deposits to new M2 remains low, indicating overall macro liquidity is still relatively ample, but there is a potential shift from real to virtual assets as enterprise deposits decline [12][32] - The increase in non-bank deposits aligns with a surge in equity market transactions, while the drop in enterprise deposits may negatively impact expectations for economic recovery [12][32] - The December M2 increase is seen as a short-term fluctuation, with a high probability of M2 decline in the first quarter of 2026, suggesting a potential marginal decrease in overall macro liquidity [12][32] Group 4: Information from the National New Office Meeting - The meeting outlined eight monetary policies to support the real economy, including a 0.25 percentage point reduction in various structural monetary policy tool rates and increased loan quotas for small and private enterprises [36][37] - The focus is on structural adjustments, with the central bank aiming to stimulate investment in supported sectors while managing supply in weaker demand areas [36][38]

文 ： 华创证券首席经济学家 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 袁玲玲（微信 Yuen43） 一 、中纪委全会的四大关注点 中国共产党第二十届中央纪律检查委员会第五次全体会议，于 2026 年 1 月 12 日至 14 日在北京举行。中共中央总书记、国家主席、中央军委主席习近平出席全会并发表重 要讲话。中共中央政治局常委、中央纪律检查委员会书记李希代表中央纪委常委会作工作报告《以更高标准、更实举措推进全面从严治党，为实现"十五五"时期目标任务提供 坚强保障》 （参考往年情况，或于 2 月下旬发布报告全文） 。 （一） 金融、国企、能源、开发区、招投标仍是重点行业 2025 年和 2026 年中纪委全会中，金融、国企、能源、开发区、招投标这五个行业，连续两年均被列为年度反腐重点行业。 其中对于金融行业， 2018 年十九届中纪委二次 全会以来，每次会议都将其列入重点行业； 2023 年，二十届中纪委二次全会首次将其放在首位，到今年已连续四年位居首位。 | 时间 | কার্যা | 重点行业 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2026年1月12日至14日 | 二十届中央纪委 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article focuses on the reform of the housing provident fund system, emphasizing the need for improvements in fund management efficiency, loan limits, and the expansion of flexible employment personnel trials [2][5][19]. Group 1: Overview of the Provident Fund - The housing provident fund system was established in 1994, with the first regulations introduced in 1999, specifying its use for purchasing, building, or renovating self-occupied housing [4][12]. - By 2024, the total balance of the provident fund exceeded 10 trillion yuan, with 176 million contributors, a 1% year-on-year increase, and a total contribution of 3.6 trillion yuan, up 4.7% year-on-year [4][12]. - The amount withdrawn from the fund reached 2.8 trillion yuan in 2024, marking a 4.1% increase year-on-year, with a notable rise in withdrawals for rental and old community renovations, growing by 33% and 147% respectively [4][13]. Group 2: Recent Policy Direction - Recent policies have emphasized the need to deepen the reform of the housing provident fund system, with the Central Economic Work Conference in December 2025 highlighting the importance of this reform in stabilizing the real estate market [5][16]. - The People's Daily has indicated that the reform aims to ensure that individuals can easily access and utilize these funds to improve their housing conditions [5][16]. Group 3: Local Adjustments - In 2025, various local governments have made adjustments to provident fund policies, including lowering down payment ratios, supporting withdrawals for down payments, and expanding the scope of fund usage [5][17]. - Specific measures include increasing loan limits, allowing fund withdrawals for property management fees, and enhancing rental withdrawal limits [5][17]. Group 4: Future Focus Areas - There is a need to improve the efficiency of fund management, particularly addressing the low interest rate of 1.5% on provident fund accounts, which may not keep pace with inflation [19]. - Increasing the withdrawal limits for the provident fund is also a priority, especially in first-tier cities where housing prices are significantly higher than the current maximum loan limits [19]. - The expansion of trials for flexible employment personnel is anticipated, with 36 cities already participating as of the end of 2024, and further efforts to broaden the usage of the provident fund for rent and property fees are expected [20].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the economic goals and major project arrangements for the 2026 provincial meetings in China, with a focus on the economic targets set by various provinces, particularly Zhejiang, which has adopted a range for its GDP growth target for the first time [3][4]. Economic Goals - Zhejiang has set its GDP growth target for 2026 at a range of 5% to 5.5%, aiming for better results in practice, compared to last year's target of around 5.5% [4][7]. - The national GDP target is approximately 5% for 2026, indicating a potential trend towards setting range-based targets among provinces [4][6]. Major Projects - Zhejiang plans to initiate 1,678 major projects with an annual investment of 1.1 trillion yuan, an increase from last year's target of over 1 trillion yuan [4][7]. - The province's focus includes significant investments in artificial intelligence, aiming for a revenue growth of over 20% in this sector [4][7]. Employment and CPI Targets - The target for urban employment in Zhejiang remains consistent with last year, aiming to ensure over 1 million new urban jobs [4][6]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) target is maintained at around 2% for the year [4][6]. Urban Development - The target for urban village renovations in Zhejiang has significantly decreased to 14,000 households from 60,000 last year, reflecting a reduction of approximately 77% [4][6]. Summary of Provincial Meetings - The article outlines the scheduled dates for the 2026 provincial meetings across various provinces, highlighting that several major economic provinces will hold their meetings in late January [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - In December, China's exports increased by 6.6% year-on-year, exceeding expectations of 3%, while imports rose by 5.7%, also surpassing the forecast of 0.9% [2][3] Group 1: December Export Performance - The increase in December exports was driven by four categories of electromechanical products: mobile phones, computers, vehicles, and integrated circuits [4][12] - Mobile phone exports improved mainly due to a low base effect from the previous year, with a year-on-year increase of 10.5% in December [14] - Vehicle exports, particularly in new energy vehicles, showed strong performance with a 119.8% year-on-year increase in December [18][19] - Integrated circuit exports surged by 48% year-on-year in December, benefiting from increased technology import demand [22] - Computer exports were mixed, with strong performance in parts and accessories, while the overall equipment export remained weak [24] Group 2: Outlook for 2025 and 2026 - The outlook for 2025 indicates sustained strength in electromechanical exports, with a projected growth of 8.4% for the year [28] - The contribution of intermediate goods to exports is increasing, while consumer goods are showing a negative contribution [34] - The profitability of midstream manufacturing has improved, with overseas gross margins exceeding domestic margins, indicating enhanced competitiveness [44] Group 3: Import and Export Data - December exports showed a significant recovery, with a month-on-month increase of 8.3%, higher than the historical averages [53] - The export quantity for major goods saw a substantial recovery, with a year-on-year increase of 17% in December [56] - The performance of major export regions varied, with the U.S. showing a decline of 30.6% in December, while non-U.S. markets performed strongly [65]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the inflation trends in the United States for 2025 and the potential risks for 2026, emphasizing that inflation may not be a precondition for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve but rather a response to economic conditions, with significant risks stemming from additional fiscal stimulus [2][3][4]. Summary by Sections 2025 US Inflation Overview - In 2025, the US inflation showed a reverse N-shaped trend with CPI year-on-year rates of 2.7%, 2.4%, 2.9%, and 2.7%, while core CPI rates were 3.1%, 2.8%, 3.1%, and 2.6% respectively [2][8]. - The CPI components include food (approximately 13.6% weight), energy (6.4%), core goods (19.3%), rent (33.7%), and super core services (27%) [8][11]. - The moderate recovery in CPI during Q2 and Q3 was primarily driven by core goods and energy, influenced by tariffs and base effects [11][12]. - The impact of tariffs on inflation was manageable, with consumers potentially bearing only 1/3 to 50% of the tariff costs due to businesses absorbing some of the costs [11][12]. - The decline in Q4 was attributed to technical issues from government shutdowns affecting data collection and a potential peak in tariff price impacts, with many tariff-affected goods seeing price declines [12][11]. 2026 US Inflation Risks - The inflation in 2026 is viewed as a potential economic feedback rather than a precursor to interest rate cuts, with the main risk being additional fiscal stimulus [3][4]. - Excluding tariff impacts, CPI year-on-year is slightly above 2%, indicating limited potential for core goods inflation to rise further [3][13]. - The likelihood of food and energy inflation rebounding is low, supported by measures taken by the Trump administration to lower food prices and a stable oil price environment [3][13]. - The main inflationary pressures will depend on the recovery of the job market, particularly in super core services and housing inflation [17][19]. - The most significant risk arises from potential fiscal stimulus driven by midterm election pressures, with Trump possibly proposing additional measures to gain voter support if current non-spending measures fail [4][19]. December 2025 CPI Data Commentary - The December CPI data showed a slight miss against expectations, with CPI year-on-year at 2.7% and core CPI at 2.6%, both aligning with Bloomberg's forecasts [22]. - Food prices contributed positively to CPI, while energy prices had a mixed impact, with gasoline prices declining [26][29]. - Core goods prices remained stable, with notable declines in prices for used cars and tariff-affected items like furniture and appliances [28][29].