根据《证券期货投资者适当性管理办法》及配套指引，本资料仅面向华创证券客户中的金融机构专业投资者，请勿对本资料 进行任何形式的转发。若您不是华创证券客户中的金融机构专业投资者，请勿订阅、接收或使用本资料中的信息。本资料难 以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。感谢您的理解与配合。 文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人：殷雯卿（19945767933） 法律声明 华 创 证券研究所 定 位 为 面 向 专 业 投 资 者的研究团队，本资料仅适用于经认可的 专 业 投 资 者 ， 仅 供 在 新 媒 体 背景下研究 观 点 的 及 时 交 流 。 华 创证券不因任何订阅本资料的行为而将订 阅 人 视 为 公 司 的 客 户 。 普 通 投资者若使 用 本 资 料 ， 有 可 能 因 缺乏解读服务而对报告中的关键假设、评 级 、 目 标 价 等 内 容 产 生 理 解 上的歧义， 进 而 造 成 投 资 损 失 。 本资料来自华创证券研究所已经发布的研究报告，若对报告的摘编产生歧义，应以报告发布当日的完整内容为 准。须注意的是，本资料仅代表报告发布 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article focuses on recent employment policies in China, highlighting four key areas: increased investment in labor-based relief projects, enhanced unemployment insurance, expanded one-time employment subsidies, and the reintroduction of social insurance deferral policies [2][14]. Group 1: Labor-Based Relief Projects - The central government has significantly increased investment in labor-based relief projects, with a total of 29.5 billion yuan allocated for 2025, compared to 11.5 billion yuan in 2024 and 5.6 billion yuan in 2020 [5][18]. - The policy aims to provide employment opportunities for over 700,000 disadvantaged individuals by participating in infrastructure projects [5][21]. - The proportion of labor remuneration in central project funding has been raised from over 30% to over 40% [5][18]. Group 2: Unemployment Insurance - The unemployment insurance policy aims to stabilize employment by refunding a certain percentage of the previous year's unemployment insurance contributions to companies [7][22]. - The refund cap for large enterprises has been increased from 30% to 50%, while for small and medium-sized enterprises, it has risen from 60% to 90% [7][22]. - The estimated refund amount for 2024 could range from 39.4 billion to 59.1 billion yuan, based on the increased refund ratios [8][25]. Group 3: One-Time Employment Subsidies - The one-time employment subsidy has been expanded to include social organizations, with a subsidy of up to 1,500 yuan per person for hiring unemployed youth aged 16-24 [9][30]. - The target group for this subsidy has shifted from recent graduates to include all unemployed youth aged 16-24 [9][32]. - The youth unemployment rate reached 14.9% in May 2025, indicating ongoing challenges in youth employment [9][32]. Group 4: Social Insurance Deferral Policies - The reintroduced social insurance deferral policy allows companies facing operational difficulties to defer their contributions to social insurance, including pension and unemployment insurance [11][36]. - The specifics of the deferral period have not been clarified, but it aims to alleviate cash flow pressures for struggling businesses [11][39]. - The potential financial relief from deferring pension contributions could amount to approximately 21.2 trillion yuan if applied broadly [11][40].

Group 1: Policy Insights - Recent high-level inspections focused on technology and industrial transformation, local finance, and economic operations, with key visits by top officials in various provinces [1][5][6] - The State Council emphasized the need for innovation in agriculture and the expansion of cultural tourism and elderly care services during recent inspections [1][6] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) issued notifications to support the construction of zero-carbon parks, encouraging funding and policy support for such initiatives [2][8] Group 2: Economic Measures - The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security announced a 2% increase in basic pensions for retirees in 2025, reflecting a commitment to improving social welfare [3][9] - The State Council issued a notice to enhance employment stability policies, increasing unemployment insurance refunds for small and medium enterprises from a maximum of 60% to 90% of their previous contributions [3][9] - The National State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) called for a focus on strategic emerging industries and the acceleration of innovation and technology development [2][10] Group 3: Financial Regulations - The Ministry of Finance introduced a new long-cycle assessment mechanism for state-owned insurance companies, adjusting the weight of net asset return rates and capital preservation rates over different time frames [2][11] - The new assessment framework includes a combination of current year, three-year, and five-year indicators, aiming to promote long-term stable investments [2][11]

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人：付春生 （18482259975） 报告摘要 关税、减税以及移民政策可称为特朗普2.0任期的"三板斧"，市场对关税和减税政策更为熟悉，但对移民政 策了解相对较小。本篇周报简要梳理今年以来特朗普政府驱逐移民的进度以及美国社会对移民态度的变 化。 美国有多少非法移民？ 从两个角度估算，截至2024年底，美国非法移民人数约为1280-1520万人，假设非法移民的劳动参与率与所 有移民群体一致（2025年上半年为66.3%），则非法移民贡献了约850-1000万的劳动力。 今年以来驱逐了多少非法移民？ 特朗普承诺要实施美国史上最大规模的非法移民驱逐行动，但并未设定具体目标。并且美国移民和海关执 法局（ICE）驱逐出境的人数也不会定期公开发布。但综合现有信息来看，今年以来美国移民驱逐人数相比 存量规模很少。 第一，今年2月至6月，驱逐人数不到10万，不到存量非法移民的0.7-0.8% 。根据NBC新闻获取的ICE内部 数据，今年2-6月份，月度驱逐出境人数在1-2万左右，2、3、5月的驱逐人数不足1.5万。 第二，特 ...

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人：陆银波（15210860866） 报告摘要 一、景气向上： 1 ）华创宏观 WEI 指数：上行至 7% 以上。 截至 7 月 6 日，该指数为 7.08% ，较 6 月 29 日（ 6% ）上行 1.08% 。 4 月以来，该指数上行的主要驱动是沥青开工率和乘用车批零。 2 ）服务消费：国内航班略有回升。 7 月前 5 日，国内航班执行数为 1.44 万架次，同比 +3% 。 6 月为 1.28 万架次，同比 +0.8% 。 3 ）基建：石油沥青装置开工率上行。 截至 7 月 9 日当周，石油沥青装置开工率为 32.7% ，同比 +4.7% ， 环比前一周 +1% ； 6 月前四周平均为 31.2% 。 4 ）物价："反内卷"带动资源品价格续涨。 山西产动力末煤 (Q5500) 秦皇岛港平仓价、京唐港山西主焦煤 库提价、螺纹钢上海现货价、铁矿石价格指数 :62%Fe:CFR 中国北方、 南华玻璃指数分别上涨 1.4% 、 9.8% 、 1.9% 、 3.0% 、 5.8% 。 5 ）外贸：我国港口吞吐量反弹 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the performance of gold has consistently exceeded market expectations, characterized by an upward direction and significant volatility, indicating a shift in pricing logic beyond traditional cycles [2][4]. Group 1: Understanding Gold's New Cycle - Breaking the traditional cycle perception is essential to comprehend the evolution of gold's new paradigm and to dynamically position gold within asset allocation frameworks [3]. - The analysis from 2020 to 2023 highlights that gold has been trading around $2000 per ounce for nearly three years, with the market not giving it sufficient attention, still viewing it through a box-like mindset [4]. - A significant qualitative judgment is that a once-in-a-century global order restructuring pulse is likely to commence, driven by rising geopolitical tensions and a decline in inter-country trust [4]. Group 2: Price Movements and Market Reactions - In early 2024, gold attempted to break upwards, reaching a plateau of $2400-$2500 per ounce, while the market continued to rely on traditional analytical frameworks to predict limited future price increases [4]. - A report published in May 2024 identified that traditional pricing models could no longer fully explain gold prices, suggesting that non-traditional factors are increasingly influencing gold trading [4]. - By early 2025, gold prices reached $3000 per ounce, with the market generally believing that prices had peaked at this integer level [5]. Group 3: Extreme Scenarios and Future Projections - In March 2025, a report explored five extreme scenarios that could lead to significant price increases for gold, helping the market to break free from rigid thinking [5]. - Following this, gold prices surged to $3500 per ounce, with the market attributing the rise to tariff issues, while a report in May indicated that the price deviations from traditional factors had reached peak levels not seen since the 1970s [5]. - The "Gold Implied Order Restructuring Index (GIORI)" was introduced to capture trading signals related to global order restructuring, suggesting that future index movements could indicate a markedly different trajectory for gold prices [5]. Group 4: Educational Resources - The article introduces the "Gold Beyond Guide," which includes a condensed PPT, four detailed reports, and a course video aimed at helping investors maintain a leading understanding in an unusual gold bull market [7]. - The guide is designed to provide a comprehensive overview and facilitate a deeper understanding of gold's positioning and future potential [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the inflation data for June, highlighting the changes in CPI and PPI, and their implications for the economy, particularly in terms of GDP growth and price pressures across various sectors [3][14][25]. Group 1: June Price Data Summary - In June, the CPI increased by 0.1% year-on-year, while the core CPI rose by 0.7%, indicating a slight improvement in inflation after four months of negative values [3][18]. - The PPI decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, which is a larger decline than the previous month's 3.3%, reflecting ongoing pressures in the manufacturing sector [3][25]. - The nominal GDP growth rate for the second quarter is estimated to be around 4.4%, slightly down from 4.6% in the first quarter [3][16]. Group 2: CPI Analysis - The CPI's year-on-year increase was driven by a narrowing decline in food and energy prices, with food prices improving from -0.4% to -0.3% and energy prices from -6.1% to -5.1% [18][19]. - The rental market saw a seasonal increase in demand, with rents rising by 0.1%, which is lower than the average increase of 0.25% during the same period from 2015 to 2019 [4][19]. - Medical service prices have risen for three consecutive months, indicating potential ongoing inflationary pressures in healthcare [4][27]. Group 3: PPI Analysis - The PPI's month-on-month decline of 0.4% was influenced by seasonal price decreases in domestic raw materials and increased green energy supply, which reduced energy prices [5][26]. - Specific sectors such as coal and electricity production experienced significant price drops, contributing to the overall PPI decline [5][26]. - The article notes that industries with high export ratios are facing price pressures due to a slowdown in global trade, impacting PPI negatively [5][27]. Group 4: Inventory Perspective on PPI - The actual inventory levels in various industries are crucial for understanding PPI trends, with high inventory levels typically exerting downward pressure on prices [6][9]. - As of May, the actual inventory growth rate in the mining and manufacturing sectors has decreased, which historically correlates with a potential upturn in PPI [6][9]. - The current inventory pressure is slightly higher than last year but significantly lower than in the first half of 2015, indicating a more favorable pricing environment for some sectors [7][12].

Core Viewpoint - The TBAC committee has submitted materials to the Treasury Department regarding stablecoins, addressing their impact on Treasury demand, dollar hegemony, the expansion of dollar-backed payment stablecoins, and potential effects on deposit-holding institutions [2][10]. Group 1: Development of the Stablecoin Market - Stablecoins are digital assets designed to maintain price stability by anchoring their value to reserve assets like fiat currencies [3][12]. - The stablecoin market has evolved rapidly, driven by institutional interest, regulatory frameworks, and broader on-chain applications, experiencing significant events over the past four years, including the collapse of Terra (UST) in May 2022 and the regional bank crisis in March 2023 [3][20]. - The market is projected to reach a valuation of approximately $2 trillion by 2028, influenced by evolving market dynamics and incentive mechanisms [28]. Group 2: Legislative Framework for Stablecoins - The GENIUS Act, passed by the U.S. Senate in 2025, aims to establish the first federal regulatory framework for payment stablecoins, significantly impacting the future of dollar-pegged stablecoins [4][31]. - Key provisions of the GENIUS Act include defining stablecoins, reserve requirements, disclosure and auditing mandates, and consumer protection measures [35]. Group 3: Impact on Bank Deposits - The design of stablecoins will determine their potential impact on bank deposit flows, with non-interest-bearing stablecoins likely leading to a shift towards tokenized money market funds for yield capture [5][37]. - If stablecoins offer interest, they may attract funds from traditional deposits, enhancing their global appeal, especially among existing on-chain holders [5][37]. Group 4: Impact on U.S. Treasury Market - Stablecoin issuers currently hold over $120 billion in short-term U.S. Treasury bills, with projected incremental demand for U.S. Treasuries reaching approximately $900 billion by 2028 due to stablecoin growth [6][43]. - The transition of funds from bank deposits to stablecoins may lead to increased demand for U.S. Treasuries, potentially exacerbated by trust crises or de-pegging events [6][43]. Group 5: Impact on Money Supply - The growth of stablecoins may catalyze a shift of funds from traditional bank deposits to stablecoins, influencing the movement of money from M1/M2 to stablecoins without significantly altering the total money supply [7][49]. Group 6: Market Structure Implications - Historical de-pegging events have highlighted the need for more robust market access mechanisms for stablecoin issuers, akin to banking regulations [8][52]. - The GENIUS Act's stringent reserve requirements aim to prevent "breaking the buck" scenarios, drawing lessons from past money market fund reforms [8][53].

Core Viewpoint - The document emphasizes that the research material is intended solely for professional investors associated with Huachuang Securities, highlighting the importance of proper interpretation of the information provided [3]. Group 1 - The research team at Huachuang Securities is positioned to serve professional investors, providing timely exchanges of viewpoints in the context of new media [3]. - The material is not intended for general investors, as they may lack the necessary interpretative services to understand key assumptions, ratings, and target prices, potentially leading to investment losses [3]. - The content is derived from previously published research reports by Huachuang Securities, and any discrepancies should refer to the complete report from the publication date [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the performance of global asset classes in June, with global stocks leading at 4.40%, followed by commodities at 3.52%, and global bonds at 1.89%, while the US dollar showed a decline of 2.47% [2]. Group 1: Global Asset Performance - In June, global stocks outperformed other asset classes, with a return of 4.40% [2]. - Commodities followed with a return of 3.52%, while global bonds returned 1.89% [2]. - The US dollar experienced a decline of 2.47%, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [2]. Group 2: Oil Price Volatility - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East led to significant fluctuations in oil prices, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, which is crucial for global oil trade [4][12]. - In June, oil prices surged due to heightened geopolitical tensions but quickly retreated as concerns over supply disruptions eased [4][12]. Group 3: US Market Dynamics - The divergence between the performance of the seven major US tech stocks and the 2-year Treasury yield indicates a shift in market sentiment from recession fears to expectations of interest rate cuts [4][14]. - The decline in the 2-year Treasury yield, previously interpreted as a recession signal, did not deter the rise of tech stocks in June [4][14]. Group 4: Emerging Market Strategies - A successful arbitrage strategy involving dollar financing and investment in six emerging market currencies yielded a return of 8% since 2025, outperforming similar strategies using yen or euro financing [4][17]. - The reduced correlation between the dollar and the S&P 500 index enhances the attractiveness of the dollar for arbitrage trading [4][17]. Group 5: Fund Manager Allocations - Global fund managers have increased their allocations to emerging markets, stocks, energy, banks, and communications, while reducing exposure to euros, utilities, cash, and bonds [4][21]. - The survey indicates a significant overweight in eurozone and emerging market assets compared to US dollar assets [4][21]. Group 6: Money Market Fund Growth - The total assets under management in US money market funds reached a record high of $7 trillion in 2025, driven by their attractive yields and investor preference for safety amid market uncertainties [4][26]. - Despite the Federal Reserve entering a rate-cutting cycle, money market funds maintained yields around 4%, appealing to risk-averse investors [4][26]. Group 7: Dollar Index and Foreign Investment - The dollar index serves as a leading indicator for net foreign investment in US equities, with a notable correlation observed over a 12-month period [4][29]. - An increase in the dollar index typically leads to higher foreign capital inflows into US assets [4][29]. Group 8: Correlation Between Dollar and Oil - The correlation between oil prices and the dollar index has shifted from negative to positive over the past two decades, reflecting changes in global economic dynamics and energy demand [4][32]. Group 9: Historical Gold-Oil Ratio - The historical analysis of the gold-oil ratio from 1920 to 2025 shows a significant decline in its central tendency post-1970s, attributed to the decoupling of the dollar from gold and the strengthening of oil's financial attributes [4][37]. Group 10: Currency Sensitivity to Oil Prices - The Indian rupee's performance is highly sensitive to oil price fluctuations, with rising oil prices leading to increased import costs and inflationary pressures [4][40]. - The Reserve Bank of India may intervene in the forex market to stabilize the rupee amid these external pressures [4][40]. Group 11: New Taiwan Dollar Hedging Costs - The New Taiwan Dollar experienced an 11% appreciation in Q2 2025, leading to significant foreign exchange losses for Taiwanese life insurers [4][42]. - The hedging costs for the New Taiwan Dollar reached nearly 15%, reflecting heightened market volatility and increased demand for currency protection [4][42].