Overall Situation: Low-Level Bottoming - In December 2025, the price indicators continued to improve, with CPI year-on-year rising from 0.7% to 0.8%, and PPI narrowing from -2.2% to -1.9% [2][11] - For the year 2025, CPI is expected to be 0%, slightly lower than the 0.2% in 2023 and 2024, while PPI is projected at -2.6%, lower than -2.2% in 2024 [12][11] CPI: From General Weakness to Structural Improvement - CPI was reclassified into categories: food (approx. 19% weight), competitive goods (approx. 26%), competitive services (approx. 19%), rent (approx. 15%), and government-controlled goods and services (approx. 21%) [15][18] - The cumulative CPI growth for 2023-2024 averaged -0.1%, indicating a general price weakness influenced by production capacity cycles and domestic supply-demand imbalances [19][18] - In 2025, CPI cumulative growth is expected to be 0.8%, showing structural improvement, driven by rising prices in food (1.1%) and gold jewelry (68.5%) [20][21] PPI: Accelerated Decline Followed by Stabilization - In the first half of 2025, PPI showed a month-on-month decline of -0.3%, while in the second half, it stabilized with a month-on-month average of 0% [5][23] - The price of various industry chains, particularly in non-ferrous metals, is expected to improve due to macroeconomic factors and domestic capacity management [24][23] Outlook for 2026: Mild Year-on-Year Recovery - CPI and PPI are expected to see mild year-on-year recoveries, with CPI projected at approximately 0.8% and PPI at around -1% [26][27] - Potential drivers for CPI improvement include rising prices in food and competitive goods, particularly gold jewelry, and healthcare services [27][28] December 2025 Inflation Data Review - CPI rose from 0.7% to 0.8%, with food prices increasing from 0.2% to 1.1%, while energy prices fell from -3.4% to -3.8% [29][30] - Core CPI remained stable at 1.2%, with significant increases in gold jewelry prices and household goods [29][30]

Key Points - The article discusses recent economic data from the US, Japan, and the Eurozone, highlighting mixed signals in employment, inflation, and consumer confidence [2][5][15] - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring economic indicators such as the ADP employment numbers, JOLTs job openings, and ISM manufacturing and services PMIs to gauge economic health [5][15] - The article notes that while US consumer confidence has reached a four-month high, employment figures have shown signs of weakness, indicating potential economic challenges ahead [5][15] Group 1: Important Data Review - US December ADP employment numbers were below expectations, with a growth of 41,000 jobs compared to an expected 50,000 [15] - The US trade deficit narrowed to $29.4 billion in October, significantly lower than the expected $58.5 billion [15] - The ISM services PMI rose to 54.4 in December, exceeding expectations, while the manufacturing PMI fell to 47.9, indicating continued contraction [15] Group 2: Economic Activity Index - The US WEI index fell to 2.13% for the week ending January 3, down from 2.49% the previous week, indicating a decline in economic activity [19] - The German WAI index increased to 0.07% for the week ending January 4, up from 0.05% the previous week, suggesting a slight improvement in economic conditions [19] Group 3: Demand - The US Redbook retail sales year-on-year growth rate decreased to 7.1% for the week ending January 3, down from 7.6% the previous week [23] - The US mortgage rates increased slightly to 6.16% for a 30-year fixed mortgage, while mortgage applications rose, with the MBA market composite index reaching 270.8, a 0.3% increase from the previous week [26][27] Group 4: Employment - The ADP weekly employment numbers showed a decline, with a four-week cumulative increase of 46,000 jobs, down from 70,000 the previous week [32] - Initial jobless claims rose to 208,000 for the week ending January 3, up from 200,000 the previous week [33] - The INDEED job vacancy index increased to a weekly average of 104.8, indicating a rise in job openings [36] Group 5: Prices - The RJ/CRB commodity price index rose to 301.47, reflecting a 1.2% increase from the previous week [42] - US gasoline retail prices fell to $2.68 per gallon, a decrease of 0.3% from the previous week [42] Group 6: Financial Conditions - Financial conditions in the US and Eurozone remain loose, with the Bloomberg financial conditions index for the US rising to 0.863 from 0.795 the previous week [47] - Offshore dollar liquidity showed improvement for the yen against the dollar, while the euro against the dollar deteriorated [49] - The 10-year US-EU government bond yield spread widened to 126.8 basis points, up from 121.5 basis points the previous week [52]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current economic trends in China, highlighting both positive and negative indicators, including the performance of the macroeconomic WEI index, consumer demand, production levels, trade activities, and price movements in various commodities [2][3][4][25][36]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The Huachuang Macro WEI index has risen to 6.05% as of January 4, up by 0.46 percentage points from the previous week [2][9]. - In the first week of January, subway passenger volume in 26 cities increased by 6% year-on-year, while domestic flight operations averaged 12,400 flights per day, a decrease of 0.6% year-on-year [2][15]. - Container throughput at Chinese ports rebounded slightly, with a week-on-week increase of 6.3% as of January 5, and a year-on-year increase of 7.7% [2][25]. Group 2: Consumer Demand - Real estate sales have seen a significant decline, with a 43% year-on-year drop in transaction area for commercial housing in 67 cities during the first ten days of January, compared to a 24% decline in December [3][16]. - The average land premium rate across 100 cities fell to 0.45% as of January 4, down from 1.64% in December [3][16]. Group 3: Production Trends - Construction activity is declining, with cement shipment rates dropping to 29% as of January 2, down 2.4 percentage points from the previous week [3][18]. - The operating rate of asphalt plants also decreased to 25.4% as of January 7, down 2 percentage points week-on-week [3][18]. Group 4: Trade Activities - Container throughput at ports showed a slight rebound, with a week-on-week increase of 6.3% as of January 5, and a year-on-year increase of 7.7% [2][25]. - The number of outbound vessels from Chinese ports increased by 42.1% year-on-year in the first ten days of January [25]. Group 5: Price Movements - Prices of gold, copper, and oil have all risen, with COMEX gold reaching $4,473 per ounce (up 3.6%), LME copper at $12,990 per ton (up 3.8%), and Brent crude oil at $63.3 per barrel (up 4.3%) [2][36]. - Lithium carbonate prices surged by 15.6% in the same period [36].

Core Viewpoints - The internal demand remains weak in December due to base effects and policy timing, but it is expected to recover in early 2026 as expansionary policies are introduced [2][3] GDP - The GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter is projected to be around 4.3%, a decline from the previous quarter due to factors such as a slowdown in industrial production and construction [5][15] - Industrial production growth is expected to be 5.2% year-on-year in Q4, down from 5.8% in Q3, with December's growth at 6.0% [5][15] - The construction sector is anticipated to see a further decline in GDP growth, with projections of -3% in Q4 compared to -2.3% in Q3 [5][15] Prices - CPI is expected to rise by 0.1% month-on-month in December, with a year-on-year increase from 0.7% to around 0.8% [6][16] - PPI is projected to show a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, with a year-on-year improvement from -2.2% to approximately -2.0% [6][16] Production - Industrial production growth is expected to be around 6.0% in December, with a notable seasonal rebound observed in previous months [18] - Manufacturing investment growth is projected to decline to 1.3%, while real estate investment is expected to drop by 16.8% [7][22] External Trade - December exports are expected to grow by around 3.5% year-on-year, while imports are projected to increase by 1% [19][21] - The strong external demand is expected to support export growth despite a high base effect [19][20] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment growth is anticipated to decline to around -3.3% for the year, with significant drops in real estate and infrastructure investments [22][23] - New infrastructure projects worth over 400 billion yuan are expected to be approved, which may stabilize investment in early 2026 [22] Real Estate Sales - Real estate sales are projected to decline by around 15% in December, with a cumulative decrease of 8.6% for the year [24][23] Retail Sales - Retail sales growth is expected to be around 1.0% in December, with essential consumption showing a growth rate of 3.5% [26] - The automotive sector is anticipated to continue its decline, impacting overall retail performance [26] Financial Sector - New social financing is expected to reach 2.3 trillion yuan in December, a decrease of 470 billion yuan compared to the previous year [27] - M2 growth is projected to be around 7.9%, while M1 is expected to see a slight increase due to seasonal factors [28]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent implementation of the "Two New" subsidy policies aimed at boosting consumption and investment, highlighting changes in subsidy amounts and categories for various consumer goods and infrastructure projects [2][9]. Consumption Subsidies - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the Ministry of Finance have allocated 62.5 billion yuan for the first batch of subsidies for consumer goods recycling in 2026, with a total of 81 billion yuan planned for the year [2]. - The subsidy for home appliances has been refined to focus on six categories: refrigerators, washing machines, televisions, air conditioners, computers, and water heaters, with a subsidy of 15% of the product price and a cap of 1,500 yuan per item [2]. - The scope of digital product subsidies has been expanded to include smartphones, tablets, smartwatches, smart glasses, and smart home products, including those designed for elderly care [2]. Automotive Subsidies - The subsidy structure for automobiles has shifted from fixed amounts to percentage-based reimbursements. For new energy vehicles, a subsidy of 12% of the sales price is provided, with a maximum of 20,000 yuan, while for fuel vehicles, it is 10% with a cap of 15,000 yuan [3]. - The subsidy for vehicle replacement has also been adjusted, with new energy vehicles receiving 8% of the sales price (up to 15,000 yuan) and fuel vehicles receiving 6% (up to 13,000 yuan) [3]. Investment Initiatives - The NDRC has announced an early release of the "Two Heavy" construction project list and central budget investment plans totaling approximately 295 billion yuan, aimed at accelerating the disbursement and utilization of funds [3][11]. - Major infrastructure projects have been approved, with total investments exceeding 400 billion yuan, including transportation, water resource allocation, and energy facilities [3][11].

Core Viewpoint - The CFETS RMB Exchange Rate Index will adjust the currency basket weights based on trade shares, effective from January 1, 2026, reflecting changes in trade data from 2024 [1]. Group 1: What is the CFETS Index? - The CFETS RMB Exchange Rate Index is a nominal basket currency index calculated using geometric averaging based on the RMB's middle price against a basket of currencies, weighted by trade shares [3][12]. Group 2: How are the basket weights adjusted? - The currency weights are adjusted annually based on trade shares from two years prior, with the new weights applying to the following year [4][13]. Group 3: Changes in the 2026 New Weights - The new weights for 2026 align closely with the 2024 trade shares, with notable discrepancies for the USD and EUR being higher than their respective trade shares, while the HKD is significantly lower [5][14]. - The concentration of the top five currencies has declined for four consecutive years, with their combined weight dropping to 58.15% in 2026, averaging a decline of approximately 1.31 percentage points per year [6][20]. - The weight of developed market currencies has decreased from 76.97% in 2020 to 69.56% in 2026, while emerging market currencies have increased from 23.03% to 30.44% [7][22]. - The weight of the USD has decreased from 19.88% in 2022 to 18.31% in 2026, with an average annual reduction of about 0.51 percentage points [8][24]. - Among emerging market currencies, those from ASEAN, the Middle East, and Russia have the highest weights, collectively accounting for 19.29% of the emerging market currency weight in 2026 [8][30]. Group 4: Trade Share Changes in 2025 - The trade shares from 2025 will guide the adjustments for the currency basket weights in 2027, indicating a potential continuation of the decline in the concentration of the top five currencies [9][34]. - The share of developed market trade is expected to decline further, while emerging market trade shares are anticipated to rise [9][36]. - The significant drop in the US trade share suggests a further decrease in the weight of the USD [9][39]. - Trade shares for ASEAN and Middle Eastern currencies are expected to rise, while the share for Russian trade may decline [9][40]. Group 5: Impact of New Weights on RMB Exchange Rate - The internal and external linkage analysis framework indicates that the new weights will affect the RMB exchange rate dynamics [9][42]. - The influence coefficient of the USD index on the USDCNY middle price has decreased from 0.337 to 0.331, indicating reduced depreciation pressure on the RMB against the USD [9][45]. - Under the new weights, a 5% increase in the USD index could lead to a passive depreciation of the RMB against the USD by approximately 1.66% [9][50].

文 ： 华创证券首席经济学家 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 袁玲玲（微信 Yuen43） 报告摘要 受假期天数增加影响，元旦出行、零售数据或实现较高增长，出入境、免税退税景气度更高。往后看，今年将经历最长"元旦+春节"假期（共12天，较去年增 加3天），或需关注其对宏观数据环比读数的影响。 一、假期天数增加，推动出行数据高增 今年元旦假期共3天，去年仅为1天，且部分游客选择"请3休8"的超长拼假模式，进一步放大了差异。据交通运输部数据，假期3天，全社会跨区域人员流动量 同比增长19.62%。 分出行方式看 ：1）游客或更多为中短途出行。民航增速相对较低为10%。2）中长途出行中，出入境景气度更高。国家移民局数据显示，出入境人数增长近 3成。 二、商品零售高增，但地区冷暖不均 从地区数据看，假期商品零售高增，但地区间差异明显。北京、河北、湖北武汉、湖南（双位数增长）>江苏南京苏州、山东青岛（8%-10%）>上海、四川 （分别为2.5%、0.9%）。（注：上海、河北、四川为前两日数据、其他为假期三天） 免税退税商品实现更高增长。据海口海关统计，假期三天，海南离岛免税购物金额同比+128 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the escalating conflict between the United States and Venezuela, focusing on Venezuela's natural resources and export situation [2]. Group 1: Population and Geography - Venezuela is located in the northern part of South America, covering an area of 916,400 square kilometers, with an estimated population of approximately 28.4 million in 2024 [3][10]. - The country shares borders with Guyana to the east, Brazil to the south, Colombia to the west, and has a northern coastline along the Caribbean Sea. Major ports include Cabello Port, La Guaira Port, and Maracaibo Port, with José Port and Maracaibo Port being the main oil export ports [3][10]. Group 2: Political and Military Overview - Venezuela operates under a presidential system, with the president serving as the head of state, government, and armed forces for a term of six years without term limits [4][13]. - The country has approximately 200,000 active military personnel and around 8 million militia reservists [4][14]. Group 3: Major Natural Resources - Venezuela holds the world's largest proven oil reserves, estimated at about 300 billion barrels, accounting for approximately 17% of global reserves [5][14]. - The country ranks eighth globally in proven natural gas reserves, with about 201 trillion cubic feet, representing around 2.9% of the world's total [5][17]. - The official gold reserves are approximately 53 tons, with an additional 31 tons held in the Bank of England since 2018. However, estimates of untapped gold reserves vary significantly [5][21]. - Iron ore reserves are reported to be between 2.2 billion to 4 billion tons, constituting about 1-2% of global reserves, though the U.S. Geological Survey does not include Venezuela's iron ore data [6][24]. - Other mineral resources include bauxite (34.8 billion tons), titanium (39 million tons), diamonds (4.1 billion carats), coal (730 million tons), and nickel (490,000 tons), with respective global shares of approximately 4.4%, 7%, 0.1%, 0.4% [6][26]. - Venezuela has abundant hydropower and forest resources, with a forest coverage rate of about 52%, significantly higher than the global average of 32% [7][27]. Group 4: Major Export Situation - The primary export destinations for Venezuela are the United States, China, and Spain, with total exports in 2023 amounting to approximately $7.63 billion. Exports to the U.S., China, and Spain were about $3.81 billion, $740 million, and $670 million, respectively [8][28]. - Key export products include oil and its derivatives (60% of total exports), basic metals (iron and aluminum), and nitrogen fertilizers [8][28]. - As of November 2025, Venezuela's oil production is projected to be around 934,000 barrels per day, with an estimated export volume of 656,000 barrels per day in 2024 [8][31].

Core Conclusion - The article highlights that the initial and continuing unemployment claims in the U.S. have decreased and are better than expected. It also notes the decline in overseas commodity prices and the continuous drop in U.S. gasoline prices. Upcoming important economic data includes December non-farm payrolls, ISM manufacturing PMI, and ISM services PMI [2]. Group 1: Upcoming Economic Data - Key economic data releases for the week of January 5-9 include the U.S. December ISM manufacturing PMI on January 5, ISM services PMI on January 7, and non-farm payrolls on January 9. In the Eurozone, the December CPI preliminary data will be released on January 7, followed by November PPI and unemployment rate on January 8, and November retail sales on January 9 [3][4]. Group 2: Weekly Economic Activity Index - The U.S. economic activity index remains stable, with the WEI index at 2.23% for the week ending December 27, 2025, compared to 2.21% the previous week. In Germany, the WAI index has shown an upward trend, rising to 0.14% for the week ending December 21, 2025, from 0.1% the previous week [5][18]. Group 3: Demand - U.S. Redbook commercial retail sales year-on-year growth has rebounded to 7.6% for the week ending December 26, 2025, up from 7.2% the previous week. Additionally, the mortgage loan rate in the U.S. has slightly decreased, with the 30-year mortgage rate at 6.15% as of December 31, 2025, down from 6.18% the previous week [6][20][23]. Group 4: Employment - Initial unemployment claims in the U.S. fell to 199,000 for the week ending December 27, 2025, better than the expected 218,000. Continuing claims also decreased from 1.913 million to 1.866 million, against an expectation of 1.902 million [7][25]. Group 5: Prices - Commodity prices have declined, with the RJ/CRB commodity price index showing a week-on-week decrease of 0.9% as of January 2. U.S. gasoline prices also continued to drop, reaching $2.69 per gallon for the week ending December 29, 2025, down 1.1% from the previous week [8][31]. Group 6: Financial Conditions - Financial conditions in the U.S. and Eurozone have marginally tightened. The Bloomberg financial conditions index for the U.S. was 0.795 on January 2, down from 0.807 the previous week. In the Eurozone, the index decreased to 1.619 from 1.651 [14][33]. Group 7: Fiscal - The U.S. federal funding expenditure for the calendar year 2025 is approximately $7.765 trillion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.8%. This is an increase from $7.34 trillion in 2024, which had a growth rate of 3% [10][45].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of global asset classes in 2025, highlighting significant trends and shifts in investment dynamics, particularly focusing on the impact of geopolitical events, monetary policy changes, and emerging market conditions. Group 1: Global Asset Performance - In 2025, global asset performance ranked as follows: global stocks (21.20%) > global bonds (8.17%) > RMB (4.44%) > 0% > commodities (-0.20%) > USD (-9.37%) [2] - Precious metals experienced a historic bull market, with gold and silver prices increasing by 64.58% and 147.95% respectively, driven by central bank purchases, geopolitical tensions, and concerns over USD credit [4][12] - The MSCI Emerging Markets index outperformed the MSCI Developed Markets index by 6.2 percentage points, indicating a favorable environment for emerging markets amid a weaker USD [6][50] Group 2: U.S. Market Dynamics - The U.S. stock market showed resilience, with the S&P 500 index rising over 16% in 2025, marking the third consecutive year of double-digit returns [6][48] - Concerns over an "AI technology bubble" led to significant volatility among major U.S. tech stocks, with a 27.37% drop in their price-to-earnings ratios early in the year [5][21] - Fund managers expressed expectations of rising interest rates and favored high-quality earnings, with 75% anticipating a steepening yield curve in the next 12 months [4][41] Group 3: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - The announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" by the Trump administration led to market volatility, with gold prices surging by 14.8% in two weeks, contributing to the decline of the "American exceptionalism" narrative [4][17] - Japan's stock index and long-term bond yields reached historical highs, with the Nikkei 225 index increasing by over 25% due to a combination of wage-inflation spirals and monetary policy normalization [7][53] - The oil market remained weak, with WTI crude oil prices fluctuating between $55 and $80 per barrel, reflecting cautious global demand and supply pressures [8][64] Group 4: Currency and Crypto Trends - The offshore RMB exchange rate fell below 7.0 against the USD, with a 9.4% decline in the USD index throughout the year, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards the RMB [8][66] - The "Genius Act" led to extreme volatility in the cryptocurrency market, with Bitcoin's price soaring from approximately $80,000 to $158,000 before experiencing a significant drop, ending the year down 6.5% [8][60]