Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the announcement made by Trump regarding the imposition of new tariffs on various goods starting October 1, with rates ranging from 25% to 100% [2][4]. Group 1: New Industry Tariffs and Import Scale - Trump announced tariffs on kitchen cabinets, bathroom sinks, and related goods at 50%, upholstered furniture at 30%, patented and branded drugs at 100% (with exemptions for certain pharmaceutical companies), and heavy trucks at 25% [5][15]. - The estimated total import value for these four categories in 2024 is $125.06 billion, accounting for 3.8% of total U.S. imports, with $10.16 billion coming from China, representing 8.1% of the total [5][16]. - The effective tariff rate on U.S. imports is projected to rise from 2.3% at the end of 2024 to 9.6% by July 2025, marking the highest level since 1947 [4][11]. Group 2: Economic Data Review and Tracking - Upcoming important economic data includes the ADP employment numbers, S&P manufacturing PMI final value, and ISM manufacturing PMI on October 1, followed by the non-farm payroll report on October 3 [6][17]. - Recent economic indicators show a decline in the WEI index, while mortgage loan rates have decreased, leading to a significant increase in mortgage applications [7][25]. - The initial jobless claims in the U.S. have decreased, indicating a potential improvement in the labor market [29]. Group 3: Financial Conditions and Market Trends - Financial conditions in the U.S. have marginally improved over the past two weeks, while those in the Eurozone have tightened [35]. - The offshore dollar liquidity has shown signs of tightening, particularly in the euro to dollar exchange [37]. - The credit spreads for U.S. investment-grade and high-yield corporate bonds have widened, reflecting changing market conditions [40].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent implementation of growth stabilization plans across various industries in China, highlighting the focus on capacity management and encouraging development in safety, new technologies, and international expansion [2][10]. Group 1: Capacity Management - The photovoltaic industry is guided to orderly layout and manage capacity, emphasizing the integration of investment, finance, and safety policies [2]. - The steel industry is implementing precise control over capacity and production, revising capacity replacement measures, and continuing production reduction policies to support advanced enterprises while phasing out inefficient capacities [2]. - In the building materials sector, strict controls on cement and glass production capacity are enforced, prohibiting new capacity and requiring replacement plans for existing projects by the end of 2025 [2][20]. - The petrochemical industry is focusing on scientific control of major project construction, limiting new refining capacity, and managing the scale and timing of new ethylene and paraxylene capacities to prevent overcapacity risks [2][21]. - The non-ferrous metals sector is advised to layout projects like alumina and copper smelting scientifically to avoid redundant low-level construction [3]. - The coal power sector is advancing the renovation of coal power plants and systematically phasing out outdated capacities [4]. Group 2: Encouraged Development Directions - In the safety sector, there is a focus on the exploration and technological breakthroughs in key non-ferrous mineral resources, including a new round of mining exploration strategies [5]. - The automotive industry is accelerating the application of the Beidou system and promoting the approval of L3 level vehicle production [6]. - The electronic information manufacturing sector is pushing for breakthroughs in 5G/6G key components and supporting innovation in integrated circuits and advanced computing [6]. - The high-end petrochemical sector is supporting the development of electronic chemicals and high-performance materials [6]. Group 3: Encouragement for International Expansion - The electronic information manufacturing sector is guided to orderly expand overseas, optimizing international capacity layout [7]. - The automotive industry is encouraged to develop overseas layouts and improve export credit insurance services [8]. - The power equipment sector is actively exploring international markets [9]. - The petrochemical sector is advancing overseas resource development and expanding export channels for petrochemical products [10]. - The light industry is supporting leading enterprises in accelerating global brand development [10].

Core Viewpoints - The central bank has removed the phrase "increase the implementation of incremental policies" and emphasized "ensuring the execution of various monetary policy measures to fully release policy effects," indicating that the phase of the most accommodative monetary policy has passed [3][6] - There is no strong necessity for interest rate cuts or reserve requirement ratio reductions to stimulate credit, as previous credit flows have primarily gone to the production side, exacerbating supply-demand imbalances in a context of insufficient demand [3][6] - The behavior of small and medium-sized banks is noteworthy, with their bond investment accounting for approximately 52% of total fund utilization over the past year, compared to an average of about 25% from 2017 to 2022 [3][6] Summary of Changes and Continuities in Monetary Policy - In economic assessment, the phrase "China's economic risks and challenges" has been removed, reflecting a more optimistic view [5][12] - The policy tone has shifted to emphasize "maintaining continuity and stability in policies while enhancing flexibility and predictability," contrasting with previous statements that focused on utilizing existing policies and implementing new ones [5][12] - Specific policy details have been adjusted to focus on the execution of monetary policy measures and the release of policy effects, moving away from previous language about flexibility in policy implementation [5][12] - Structural tools have been reinforced to support small and micro enterprises and stabilize foreign trade, indicating a targeted approach to monetary policy [5][12] Understanding Current Monetary Policy - The assessment that the phase of the most accommodative monetary policy has passed is supported by three reasons: a focus on releasing prior policy effects, a lack of necessity for stimulating credit through rate cuts in the context of insufficient demand, and potential regulatory constraints on leveraging in the equity market [6][14] - Attention is drawn to the process of small and medium-sized banks focusing on their core responsibilities, with a significant increase in bond investments that may pose risks if not managed properly [6][15] - Structural tools for financial support should concentrate on technological innovation, boosting consumption, stabilizing foreign trade, and supporting small and micro enterprises, indicating a shift towards more targeted financial interventions [6][15]

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 报告摘要 （一）景气向上： 1 、华创宏观 WEI 指数： 截至 9 月 21 日，该指数为 8.78% ，较前一周上行 1.23 个点。 增速回升的分 项主要是基建（沥青开工率）、耐用品消费（乘用车批零）。 2 、基建：高频数据回升 。 石油沥青装置开工率和水泥发运率均回升，两者好于去年同期。截至 9 月 24 日当周，石油沥青装置开工率为 40.1% ，同比 +11.1% ，环比前一周 +5.7% 。截至 9 月 19 日当周，水 泥发运率为 40.3% ，环比上周 +0.4% ，去年同期为 34.7% 。 3 、出口：港口集装箱吞吐量维持高位 ， 四周累计同比边际有所回落 。 9 月 21 日当周，我国监测港口集 装箱吞吐量环比 +0.2% ，上周为 +0.1% ；四周累计同比 10.4% ，上周为 10.9% 。 4 、价格：金、油价格上涨 。 COMEX 黄金收于 3734.2 美金 / 盎司，上涨 1.3% ； LME 三个月铜价收于 10190 美元 / 吨 ...

Core Viewpoint - The profit growth of industrial enterprises in August showed a significant recovery, with a year-on-year increase of 20.4%, reversing the previous month's decline of 1.5% [4][19]. Group 1: Profit Improvement in Two Types of Industries - The profit improvement is evident in two categories of industries: one benefiting from price recovery and revenue improvement, leading to enhanced gross margins, and the other benefiting from increased investment income, resulting in improved profit margins [4][10]. - In the upstream manufacturing sector, the average PPI year-on-year for eight industries was -4.4%, a narrowing from -5.7% previously, with revenue growth of 2.29% in August compared to -1.65% previously [5][11]. - The downstream manufacturing sector saw a profit growth rate of 36.3% in August, up from -5.2% previously, with a profit margin of 7.93%, significantly improved from 5.68% year-on-year [6][12]. Group 2: August Industrial Enterprise Profit Data Review (1) Overall Situation: Profit Growth Recovery - In August, the profit of industrial enterprises increased by 20.4% year-on-year, with inventory growth at 2.3% compared to 2.4% previously [2][19]. - The profit margin for industrial enterprises was 5.83%, an increase of 0.90 percentage points year-on-year, with costs per hundred yuan of revenue decreasing by 0.20 yuan, marking the first year-on-year decrease since July 2024 [20][19]. (2) Industry Situation: Profit Growth Across Sectors - The mining industry experienced a profit growth rate of -23%, an improvement from -39.24% previously, while the manufacturing sector saw a growth rate of 26.3%, up from 6.63% [22]. - The upstream manufacturing sector's profit growth was 16.08%, while the midstream and downstream sectors reported growth rates of 6.75% and 36.3%, respectively [22].

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人：付春生（18482259975） 尼特族（NEET，not in employment, education or training）是指"未就业且未接受教育或职业培训的 群体"，这一概念通常有年龄限制，专指青年群体（一般指15-24岁群体） 。该概念起源于英国，最开始的 流行伴随着个体群体的负面标签，随着其被广泛传播和研究，"污名化"逐步消去。目前多数国家或地区以及 国际组织均将其纳入青年就业监测体系，意义在于识别风险群体，即关注可能面临社会排斥、经济弱势和 未来发展受限的青年，更全面地反映青年边缘化问题，并帮助政府制定针对性措施。 一般认为尼特族的成因有如下因素：第一，经济因素 ，经济发展速度放缓，人力资源过剩；经济周期影 响，就业环境恶化。 第二，教育和社会因素 ，教育方针可能与社会发展不匹配，更完善的社保和更宽容的 社会环境降低了青年就业的紧迫性；新一代青年更注重生活品质和自由。 第三，文化因素 ，在某些文化语 境中，女性通常被期望优先承担家庭责任而非职业发展。 第四，家庭因素。第五，个人因素 ，丧 ...

Group 1 - The "old-for-new" policy has been adjusted in at least 19 provinces and cities since July, primarily to smooth the use of subsidy funds, with a total of 690 billion yuan allocated for the third batch of subsidies [2][10][12] - Most provinces and cities have implemented limit management on subsidy amounts, with 16 out of 19 provinces mentioning this, such as Shanxi's daily allocation for various categories [3][11] - Some provinces have reduced subsidy standards, like Guizhou, which lowered the subsidy for purchasing new energy vehicles from 16% to 10% [3][11] Group 2 - The Huachuang Macro WEI index remains high at 7.53% as of September 14, indicating an upward trend in economic activity [4][16] - Real estate sales have shown an increase, with a 15% year-on-year growth in housing transactions in 67 cities as of September 19 [4][23] - Retail sales of passenger cars have maintained low growth, with a year-on-year increase of only 1% in the second week of September [5][23] Group 3 - The construction sector shows fluctuations, with asphalt plant operating rates at 34.4%, up 8.5% year-on-year [5][26] - The average land premium rate remains low at 3.75% for the first two weeks of September [5][23] - The port container throughput remains high, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 10.9% as of September 14 [5][35] Group 4 - The central government is addressing "involution" issues, emphasizing the need to regulate low-price competition among enterprises [5][27] - The automotive industry has introduced a stable growth plan, focusing on controlling payment terms [5][27] - Various industries, including coal and steel, are under scrutiny for capacity management and compliance with regulations [5][27]

1 ）外部形势判断： "十五五"时期相较于以往的五年规划期， 最突出的特征就是外部环境的不确定性。 2 ）经济增速要求： 大国战略竞争的核心是综合实力的较量 ，必须着力提升自身经济实力、科技实力和综 合国力，才能赢得战略主动。在这样的背景下， 要把经济较快增长放在更为重要的位置，设定明确的经济 增长目标， 以此引导市场、增强信心，也为高质量发展创造条件。 3 ）安全 ： 统筹发展与安全，加强粮食、能源、金融等领域风险防控；修改国家安全法。 文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 袁玲玲（微信 Yuen43） 报告摘要 近一周，主要关注"十五五"规划相关的新信号。 9 月 12 日，全国人民代表大会常务委员会办公厅关于"十 五五"规划纲要编制工作若干重要问题专题调研工作情况的报告（以下简称调研报告），要点如下： 4 ）科技与产业 ： 科技创新和产业创新是发展新质生产力、实现高质量发展的战略基点，也是有效应对国 际竞争新形势和美西方国家围堵打压的根本途径……我国未来发展的潜在增长率取决于全要素生产率的提 升…… 建议"十五五"规划中构建全要素生产率 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the current macroeconomic situation, focusing on a simplified model of the economy divided into four sectors: households, enterprises, government, and overseas [4] - The household sector is characterized by high precautionary savings, with savings as a percentage of nominal GDP rising from around 80% (2008-2018) to approximately 120% in recent years, indicating a liquidity accumulation issue [5] - The government sector faces challenges due to declining fiscal revenues, driven by falling PPI and increased local protectionism, which has led to a drop in tax revenues and a structural imbalance in land sales [9][10] Group 2 - The enterprise sector has seen production investment growth outpacing demand, with manufacturing investment growth averaging 8.3% from 2022 to 2024, while nominal GDP growth is around 4.7% [14] - There is a persistent trend of production credit growth exceeding terminal demand credit, with production credit increasing by nearly 5 trillion compared to 2019, while terminal demand credit has decreased by a similar amount [15] - The overseas sector shows signs of a mild recovery in global industrial production, with six out of eight leading indicators trending upwards, suggesting resilient external demand in the coming months [19] Group 3 - The article outlines two potential policy paths: the optimal path of "suppressing supply + boosting demand" and a reliance path that returns to "production investment" as a support for economic data [20][23] - The optimal path involves maintaining anti-involution measures, addressing local protectionism, and implementing policies to stimulate domestic demand, which could lead to a narrowing of PPI declines [23] - The company maintains a positive outlook on gold and suggests a strategy of "buying stocks like bonds," indicating a favorable macro environment for equities and a potential reversal in stock-bond dynamics [24]

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