Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current economic trends in China, highlighting both upward and downward indicators in various sectors, including consumer behavior, production, and trade dynamics, while also addressing the impact of external factors such as tariffs and commodity prices [2][3][4][5]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - Durable goods consumption shows a recovery in retail sales of passenger cars, with a year-on-year growth of 6% in September compared to 3% in August [2][15]. - The OECD composite leading indicator for G7 countries rose to 100.49 in September, indicating a continued recovery in external demand [3][24]. - The macroeconomic activity index from Huachuang Securities declined to 6.26% as of October 5, down from 6.65% the previous week [3][9]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - The real estate market is experiencing a significant decline, with a 33% year-on-year drop in residential property sales in 67 cities during the first ten days of October, compared to a 1.2% decline in September [3][15]. - Non-durable goods consumption growth has slowed, with express delivery volume growth dropping to 4.5% as of October 5, down from 12% in the previous month [3][15]. - Service consumption, particularly subway ridership, has turned negative, with a 4.8% decline in the first ten days of October compared to a 3.8% increase in September [3][13]. Group 3: Production and Trade - The apparent consumption of rebar remains weaker than the previous year, with a 10% year-on-year decline as of October 9 [3][17]. - The OECD leading indicator for external demand continues to rise, suggesting potential improvements in trade dynamics, although direct trade with the U.S. is showing signs of decline [3][24]. - The prices of gold and copper have increased, with gold reaching $3986.2 per ounce (up 2.7%) and copper at $10,765 per ton (up 1.9%) [4][38]. Group 4: Policy and Financial Environment - Long-term bond yields have decreased, with the 10-year government bond yield at 1.8206%, down 3.99 basis points from September 30 [5][57]. - Recent developments in U.S.-China trade relations indicate an escalation in tariff tensions, with a proposed 100% tariff on all Chinese imports starting November 1 [4][26]. - New policy measures are being implemented to support various industries, particularly in the non-ferrous sector, with recommendations for price adjustments to alleviate industry losses [4][22].

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人：付春生 （18482259975） 报告摘要 美国当地时间10月10日，特朗普在社交媒体宣布，将从11月1日起对华加征100%的额外关税，并对所有关键软件实施出口管 制。当日美股大幅下跌。我们对当前与4月份时的中美关税摩擦升级的环境进行对比，供投资者参考。 一、中美权益市场环境的差异 二、关税环境的差异 复盘4月初的中美股市场波动及后续走势，中美股票市场差异性十分明显：A股越贵跌的越多（股息率低、估值分位数高），跌 的越多后续补涨越多，整体而言无论是"跌"还是"回涨"都比较"价值"；美股下跌时呈现普遍式恐慌下跌（跌幅与估值和股息率 几乎都没关系），后续涨的时候反而是越贵的涨的越多，整体而言跌是普跌，涨是风偏极高的涨。美股风险偏好的两极图谱都 更极端。对当下的启示： 4月份和当前，中美关税摩擦升级的幅度都明显超市场预期。但不同的是，其一， 在经历过4月份近乎贸易脱钩的情景之后，此 次再大幅加征关税，市场的心理承受能力更强。 其二， 4月份时市场完全不清楚后续关税的发展方向，且更为悲观（博彩市场 数据显示，彼时 ...

Group 1 - The global asset performance in September shows that global stocks outperformed other asset classes, with a return of 3.31%, followed by global bonds at 0.65%, and commodities at 0.05% [2] - The international spot gold price has recently continued its strong upward momentum, breaking through $3,800 per ounce at the end of September, driven by multiple systemic factors and market sentiment [4][12] - Despite the U.S. government shutdown, the stock market showed resilience, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 reaching historical highs, buoyed by optimistic market sentiment and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut [4][17] Group 2 - The credit spread for U.S. high-yield corporate bonds narrowed to a historical low of 2.67% by the end of September 2025, indicating high investor confidence in corporate credit quality [5][20] - Global fund managers increased their allocations to stocks, pharmaceuticals, communications, consumer discretionary, and technology, while reducing exposure to the UK, utilities, energy, Eurozone, and emerging markets [6][23] - The Indian stock market has underperformed the MSCI Asia-Pacific index for five consecutive months, reflecting a divergence between foreign and domestic investor sentiment [6][28] Group 3 - Speculative net positions in Japanese yen have decreased to 79,500 contracts, indicating a waning bullish sentiment towards the yen [6][31] - The volatility ratio of emerging market currencies to G7 currencies has continued to decline, reaching a low of 0.76, improving the risk-return profile for carry trades [6][36] - The scale of reserves held by banks at the Federal Reserve has fallen below $3 trillion, the lowest level since the beginning of the year, due to large-scale Treasury issuance and ongoing quantitative tightening [6][39] Group 4 - The S&P 500 index and the MOVE index (a measure of U.S. Treasury market volatility) have shown a strong correlation, suggesting that the current stock market rally is supported by low interest rate volatility [6][42] - The overnight interbank offered rate in Hong Kong surged to 5.35%, the highest level in nearly a year, highlighting short-term funding market tensions [6][45] Group 5 - From a fundamental perspective, the weekly economic activity index has shown signs of recovery, indicating a potential divergence between asset prices and economic fundamentals [6][47] - From a sentiment perspective, the market sentiment index has rebounded, reflecting improved investor confidence [6][63]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses how the Federal Reserve's monetary policy impacts emerging market stock markets, categorizing the external macro environment into four scenarios that influence market performance [2][4]. Group 1: Scenarios of Emerging Market Stock Performance - Scenario 1: During global monetary policy switching periods (e.g., initial or final stages of rate hikes/cuts), market expectations regarding the Fed's stance (hawkish/dovish) are crucial, with emerging market economic strength being less significant [5][24]. - Scenario 2: In periods of stable rate hikes/cuts, the sensitivity of the market to monetary policy decreases, and the economic expectations of emerging markets compared to the U.S. become key factors [9][25]. - Scenario 3: During global economic recessions or when recession expectations exist, emerging markets generally perform poorly [13][54]. - Scenario 4: In times of excessive liquidity, emerging market stocks typically perform well [15][62]. Group 2: Historical Review of Emerging Market Stock Performance - The article reviews emerging market stock performance from 2008 to 2025, highlighting key periods and their corresponding MSCI Emerging Markets Index movements [23][26]. - For instance, from January 2008 to February 2009, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell by 59.9% due to the global financial crisis, while from February 2009 to April 2010, it rebounded by 92.6% during a period of excessive liquidity [26]. - The performance during the stable rate hike period from February 2016 to January 2018 saw a 69.0% increase in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, driven by improving global economic conditions [46][48]. Group 3: Future Outlook for Emerging Markets Post-September Rate Cut - Following the September rate cut, three potential macro scenarios for emerging markets are outlined: 1. Continued mild economic cooling with no inflation rise, allowing for a sustained rate cut cycle [73]. 2. A rapid economic recovery post-rate cut, leading to a potential shift back to a hawkish stance by the Fed, which could pressure emerging markets [73][76]. 3. Risks of stagflation due to fluctuating tariffs impacting inflation, which could lead to downturns in both emerging markets and U.S. stocks [73][76]. - The article suggests that the likelihood of scenario 2 is higher, indicating that the best time for emerging market stock performance may have passed, while U.S. stocks could remain strong [76].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes a strategic bullish outlook on gold, driven by a restructured global financial and political order, rather than traditional macroeconomic factors [4][9]. Research Context - The company initiated a strategic bullish view on gold at the beginning of 2023, with a report titled "Gold: A Century, A Decade, Next Year" released in December 2022 [5]. - Subsequent reports in May 2024, March 2025, and May 2025 further explored gold pricing logic and the dynamics driving gold price increases [5]. Latest Research Findings - The latest research focuses on what gold is pricing, introducing the "Implied Order Reconstruction Index" to address the limitations of traditional factors like real interest rates, inflation expectations, and the US dollar index in explaining gold's price surge [6]. - The "unconventional momentum" identified in the index reflects investor expectations regarding the restructuring of the global financial and political order, which has been the primary driver of gold prices since 2023 [7]. Future Outlook - The "Implied Order Reconstruction Index" remains the core driver of recent gold price increases, challenging the notion that traditional factors like central bank gold purchases or Federal Reserve rate cuts are responsible for the price rise [9]. - Recent geopolitical and economic instability, such as unrest in Indonesia and political turmoil in Nepal and Argentina, has contributed to fluctuations in the index, reinforcing the view that the core force driving gold prices is the expectation of order reconstruction [9]. - The index has approached and surpassed historical highs last seen in 1980, indicating potential for further price increases if it stabilizes above this level [9]. Asset Allocation Perspective - Gold's allocation value is significant, as even a 5% allocation can optimize the risk-return profile of a diversified asset portfolio [10]. - Gold is uniquely positioned to have low correlation with both US-dominated financial assets and commodities driven by Chinese demand, enhancing its appeal as a strategic asset [10]. - The company maintains a bullish stance on gold, asserting that the recent price breakthrough of $4,000 per ounce does not signify the end of the upward trend [10].

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 李星宇（18810112501） 核心观点 十一&中秋假期间，海外市场主要交易的是美国联邦政府"停摆"以及高市早苗在日本自民党总裁选举中胜出 。在此背景下，主要资产价格表现如下：全球主要股指 全面上涨，日股、韩股、欧股涨幅领先；全球主要10年期国债收益率上行；贵金属大幅上涨，原油价格下跌；主要货币中日元汇率跌幅较大。 报告摘要 十一&中秋假期海外六大要闻 要闻1：黄金现货价格冲击4000点关键点位 国际现货黄金价格近期延续强劲上涨势头，在10月7日亚洲交易时段，COMEX黄金期货价格史上首次触及4000美元/盎司的整数关键点位，再次刷新历史纪录 。本 轮黄金价格的迅猛上涨是由多重系统性因素和市场情绪共同推动的结果：一是美联储降息预期与实际收益率下降；二是地缘政治不确定性与避险需求；三是各国央 行持续购金。 全球进入百年一次的秩序重构期（政治、军事、经贸、法币财富），旧秩序逐渐瓦解，新秩序尚难和平成立 。所有股、债、法币等与特定国家信用相关的资产， 都面临秩序溢价还是秩序折价的不确定性。黄金对于当下的秩序主 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights three significant changes in the economic landscape for September, focusing on manufacturing investment growth, price indicators, and the current state of demand, suggesting a need for policy adjustments to stimulate demand [2]. GDP - The GDP growth rate for the third quarter is expected to be around 4.8%, with a cumulative growth rate of approximately 5.1% for the first three quarters [4][11]. - Key downward factors include a decline in industrial production, construction, real estate, and wholesale retail sectors, with retail sales growth expected to drop to around 3.2% in September [4][12]. Prices - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is projected to show a month-on-month increase of about 0.2% and a year-on-year decrease of around -0.2% in September [5][13]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to decrease by approximately -0.2% month-on-month but improve from -2.9% to -2.5% year-on-year [5][14]. Production - Industrial production growth is anticipated to be around 6.0% in September, with strong performance in the manufacturing sector driven by increased production and external demand [15]. Foreign Trade - Exports are expected to grow by about 6% year-on-year in September, supported by low base effects and resilient non-U.S. demand [16]. - Imports are projected to increase by around 1%, influenced by rising commodity prices and stable export performance [17]. Fixed Asset Investment - Cumulative fixed asset investment growth is expected to decline to around -0.2% for the first nine months, with manufacturing investment growth dropping to 4.0% and real estate investment falling to -13.2% [18]. Real Estate Sales - Real estate sales are projected to have a growth rate of approximately 0% in September, with recent policy adjustments in major cities potentially leading to a slight recovery in sales [7][19]. Retail Sales - Retail sales growth is expected to be around 3.2% in September, influenced by high base effects and changes in consumer behavior [21][22]. Financial Indicators - New social financing is estimated at 3 trillion yuan in September, with a year-on-year decrease of 610 billion yuan, while M2 growth is projected at around 8.4% [8][23].

Group 1: National Day Consumption - Travel remains resilient, but growth rate slows compared to the May Day holiday, with a 5.3% year-on-year increase in cross-regional personnel flow during the first five days of the holiday, down from 7.9% during the May Day holiday [2][4] - The growth rate for long-distance travel by rail and civil aviation is low, both below 4%, while waterway and outbound travel show higher growth rates, with waterway passenger transport up 8.7% and international flights up 11.7% [4][17] - Retail sales growth is low at 3.3% year-on-year, indicating potential pressure on October's retail sales, with significant growth in home appliances and green food consumption [5][20][22] - Food prices remain stable, while service prices show mixed trends, with airfares rising by 9.2% and hotel prices varying significantly between first-tier and third/fourth-tier cities [6][24][25] - The film box office is down 19.2% year-on-year, potentially due to scheduling issues, despite some popular films performing well in previous months [7][27] Group 2: Weekly Economic Observation - The Huachuang macroeconomic WEI index has declined to 6.65%, down 2.12 percentage points from the previous week, but remains at a high level [29] - Durable goods consumption shows a decline in passenger car retail, with a year-on-year decrease of 2% reported [10][34] - Subway passenger transport growth has turned negative, with a 9.5% year-on-year decline reported in early October [11][34] - Oil prices have dropped significantly, with WTI crude oil at $61.69 per barrel, down 6.1% [12][52] - The new policy financial tool of 500 billion yuan is being actively promoted to support project capital [54][55]

Group 1: Global Monetary Policy Tracking - The Federal Reserve has restarted its rate cut cycle, lowering rates by 25 basis points to a range of 4%-4.25% in September 2025, aligning with market expectations. The European Central Bank (ECB) has maintained its rates, while the Bank of Japan (BOJ) has signaled a more hawkish stance by opposing the current rate policy and announcing a reduction in ETF and REIT holdings [2][9][11] - Market expectations indicate that the Federal Reserve is likely to cut rates three times by the end of 2025, with a projected benchmark rate of approximately 3.75% by then. The ECB's rate cut expectations have diminished, with a current forecast suggesting no further cuts this year. The BOJ is anticipated to raise rates once by the end of the year [3][15][16] - In China, nominal interest rates have risen from 1.7% at the end of July to 1.88% by late September 2025, with real interest rates also increasing from 3.1% to 3.3% during the same period, placing China among the higher real interest rates globally [19][21] Group 2: Global Liquidity Tracking - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction has led to significant liquidity tightening, with a reduction of $357.7 billion in reserves since the start of the tapering process. The overnight reverse repurchase agreement (ONRRP) balance has dropped sharply to $29.2 billion, indicating a near exhaustion of this liquidity tool [4][23] - The SOFR-EFFR spread has turned positive, reflecting a tightening liquidity environment for non-bank institutions. The spread reached a high of 0.18%, indicating that borrowing costs for these institutions have increased significantly [5][31] - U.S. Treasury liquidity has deteriorated, with the bid-ask spread for 10-year Treasuries fluctuating between 0.19 and 0.58 basis points, while credit spreads remain low, suggesting a mixed liquidity environment across different asset classes [6][37][40]

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI for September shows a slight recovery, indicating improved production activity, with the production index rising to 51.9% from 50.8% in the previous month [2][4][11]. Group 1: Production Strengthening - The overall PMI index for September is 49.8%, up from 49.4% in August, primarily driven by a rebound in production [4][9]. - The recovery in production is attributed to stronger performance in the midstream and downstream sectors, with the midstream equipment manufacturing PMI reaching 51.9% and the consumer goods PMI at 50.6% [4][9]. - Factors contributing to this recovery include inventory replenishment and strong external demand, as indicated by a global manufacturing PMI increase to 50.9% in August and a 7.3% year-on-year growth in port container throughput in September [4][9]. Group 2: Data Insights - The September manufacturing PMI is 49.8%, with specific indices showing: production index at 51.9%, new orders index at 49.7%, new export orders index at 47.8%, employment index at 48.5%, and raw material inventory index at 48.5% [2][11]. - The price index shows a decline, with the PMI output price index at 48.2%, continuing below the neutral line for 16 consecutive months [3][12]. - The construction sector's PMI is at 49.3%, indicating a slight increase from the previous month but still below last year's level, while the service sector remains in the expansion zone with a PMI of 50.1% [3][14]. Group 3: Expectations and Comprehensive Output - The manufacturing activity expectation index rose to 54.1% in September, reflecting increased confidence among businesses, particularly in sectors like food processing and automotive [3][14]. - The comprehensive PMI output index for September is 50.6%, indicating continued expansion in production activities across sectors [3][14].