文 ： 华创证券首席经济学家 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 袁玲玲（微信 Yuen43） 报告摘要 自1月9日国常会部署实施财政金融协同促内需一揽子政策后，近期多项财政金融协同促内需一揽子政 策落地。 1、设备更新贴息政策： 1月19日，财政部等关于优化实施设备更新贷款财政贴息政策的通知。政策实 施期限延迟至2026年底，新增建筑和市政、用能设备、航空器材、电子信息、安全生产、设施农业、 渔船、冷链设施、粮油加工、废弃物循环利用、小水电、消费商业设施、人工智能、养老等领域。1月 22日，国家发改委公告2026年第一批936亿元超长期特别国债支持设备更新资金已经下达，支持工 业、能源电力、教育、医疗、粮油加工、海关查验、住宅老旧电梯、节能降碳环保、回收循环利用等 领域约4500个项目，带动总投资超过4600亿元。 2、消费贷贴息政策 ：1月20日，财政部等发布《关于优化实施个人消费贷款财政贴息政策有关事项的 通知》，将政策延续到2026年底，将信用卡账单分期业务纳入支持范围，扩大经办机构范围等。 3、中小企业及民间投资 ：财政部等印发《关于实施中小微企业贷款贴息政策的通知》《关于实施 ...

文 ： 华创证券首席经济学家 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 袁玲玲（微信 Yuen43） 往期重点内容 1月13日《地方两会的"信息点"》 1月15日《浙江率先开局》 1月26日《北京GDP目标维持在5%左右》 | સ્ત્રેફ્ર | | ફ્તિસ્ટે | 今年目标 | 去年目标 | 去年实际 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 调整为区间目标， 下调约0.5个点 | | 广东 | 4.5%-5%,在实际工作 中全力争取更好结果 | 5%左右 | 3.9% | | | | 浙江 | 5%-5.5%，在实际工作 中努力争取更好结果 | 5.5%左右 | 5.5% | | 下调0.5 | | 河南 | 5%左右，在实际工作 中努力争取更好结果 | 5.5%左右 | 5.6% | | 仍为点 | 个点 | 天津 | 4.5%，在实际工作中努 力争取更好结果 | 5%左右 | 4.8% | | 位目标 | 基本不变 | 河北 | 2%以下 | 5%以上 | 5.6% | | | | 北京 | 5%左右 ...

文 ： 华创证券首席经济学家 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 袁玲玲（微信 Yuen43） 往期重点内容 1月13日《地方两会的"信息点"》 1月15日《浙江率先开局》 · 1月25日，76泉台十人代云，主此七月浙江、北京网吧台计。 · 下周（1月26日-1月31日）将有20省市召开人代会，是重要观察窗口 期。其中16省市集中在1月26日-27日（周一和周二），河南、广东、 天津、河北4省在周一，山东、湖北、福建等12省在周二，这16省市 2024年GDP合计占比50%。 · 江苏、四川两个经济大省召开时间略晚，安排在2月3日。 > 北京 "十五五"时期GDP目标: 年均增速4.5%-5%、努力争取更好结果。 "十四五"时期未设置GDP年均目标。 > 北京今年GDP目标制定：今年为5%左右，去年为5%左右、努力争取更 好结果。从历史经验看，2017年至2025年，北京GDP目标持平或低于当 年全国目标，其中2024-2025年与全国目标数值一致。 > 重大项目情况： 六个经济大省中，目前已有江苏、浙江、四川三省公布 今年重大项目安排，三省合计同比增速 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent economic data and trends in the US, Japan, and the Eurozone, highlighting the mixed signals in economic activity, employment, and financial conditions [1]. Group 1: Important Data Review - The US January S&P Global Manufacturing PMI has rebounded, with the final Q3 GDP growth rate at 4.4% [11][13]. - Japan's December export growth was below expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 5.1% compared to an expected 6.1% [11][14]. - The Eurozone's January ZEW Economic Sentiment Index has improved, and the manufacturing PMI has also increased, with France's manufacturing PMI reaching a nearly four-year high of 51 [11][14]. Group 2: US Economic Activity - The US WEI index fell to 2.34% for the week ending January 17, down from 2.40% the previous week [4][16]. - The German WAI index rose to 0.06% for the week ending January 18, up from -0.03% [5][16]. Group 3: Demand - The US Redbook retail sales year-on-year growth rate has marginally decreased to 5.5% for the week ending January 16, down from 5.7% [6][18]. - The US mortgage loan rate increased to 6.09% as of January 22, up from 6.06% the previous week, while the MBA market composite index rose to 397.2, a 14.1% increase from the previous week [6][23]. Group 4: Prices - Commodity prices have rebounded, with the RJ/CRB commodity price index at 312.24, a 3.4% increase from the previous week [7]. - The US gasoline retail price rose to $2.70 per gallon on January 19, an increase of 1.3% from the previous week [40]. Group 5: Employment - The ADP weekly job additions have decreased, with a four-week cumulative total of 46,000 jobs as of December 6, down from 70,000 the previous week [8][27]. - Initial jobless claims rose to 200,000 for the week ending January 17, up from 199,000 the previous week [29]. - The INDEED job vacancy index fell to a weekly average of 105.3 for the week ending January 9, down from the previous week's average [34]. Group 6: Financial Conditions - Financial conditions in the US and Eurozone have tightened, with the Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index for the US at 0.812, down from 0.848 the previous week [9][45]. - Offshore dollar liquidity has improved for the yen against the dollar, while it has worsened for the euro against the dollar [9][48]. - The 10-year government bond yield spread between the US and Eurozone has narrowed, with the spread at 132.3 basis points as of January 22, down from 134.6 basis points [10][51].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current economic trends in China, highlighting both positive and negative indicators in various sectors, including macroeconomic activity, real estate, consumer goods, infrastructure, trade, and commodity prices. Group 1: Economic Activity - The Huachuang Macro WEI index increased to 8.15% as of January 18, up from 5.28% the previous week, indicating a recovery in economic activity, potentially influenced by the timing of the Spring Festival [2] - The weekly container throughput at Chinese ports showed a slight recovery, with a 0.6% increase week-on-week and a 7.6% year-on-year increase as of January 19 [22] - Movie box office revenues improved significantly, with a year-on-year decline of only 23% as of January 18, compared to a 55.3% decline in early November [8] Group 2: Real Estate and Consumer Goods - The sales area of commercial housing continued to decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 39% in 67 cities as of January 24, worsening from a 35% decline earlier in the month [3] - Retail sales of passenger cars remained negative, with a year-on-year decline of 22% as of January 18, although this was an improvement from a 32% decline previously [3] - The average land premium rate in 100 cities was 1.59% as of January 18, showing low volatility [12] Group 3: Infrastructure and Production - Infrastructure activity remains weak, with the cement dispatch rate falling to 26.4% as of January 23, down 2.3 percentage points from the previous week [18] - The operating rate of asphalt plants slightly decreased to 26.8% as of January 22, down 0.4 percentage points week-on-week [18] - Coal throughput at Qinhuangdao port showed a year-on-year decline of 4% as of January 16 [18] Group 4: Trade - Container throughput at Chinese ports showed a slight recovery, with a year-on-year increase of 7.6% as of January 19 [22] - The number of cargo ships from China to the U.S. decreased by 28.8% year-on-year as of January 23 [23] - South Korea's exports increased by 14.9% year-on-year in early January, with semiconductor exports rising significantly [21] Group 5: Commodity Prices - Commodity prices have generally risen, with gold prices reaching $4936 per ounce, up 7.5%, and oil prices increasing to $61.6 per barrel, up 2.7% [41] - Agricultural product prices have also increased, with egg prices rising by 7.2% and pork prices by 2.3% [42] - The lithium carbonate price surged by 14.9%, reflecting strong demand in the market [44] Group 6: Interest Rates and Fiscal Policy - As of January 23, the funding rates showed slight increases, with DR001 at 1.3983% and DR007 at 1.4935% [4] - The fiscal policy for 2026 aims to increase total spending while optimizing the structure and improving efficiency, with a focus on boosting consumption and ensuring financial stability [45][46]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights that by 2025, the Chinese stock market is expected to lead major global markets with a Sharpe ratio of 1.72, characterized by low volatility and high efficiency, making it an attractive investment option [2][4]. Group 1: Global Market Analysis - In 2025, the performance of major asset classes globally shows a significant "strong stocks, weak bonds" trend, with equity assets becoming the core source of excess returns, while bond assets are generally underperforming [4][8]. - The Chinese stock market's Sharpe ratio of 1.72 indicates a robust risk-return profile, achieving nearly 20% annual returns with a volatility of only 11.6%, reflecting a stable recovery post-macro policy adjustments [8][12]. - The bond market in China faces significant challenges, with a Sharpe ratio plummeting to -1.93 and an annual return of -4.3%, indicating a shift of funds from traditional safe-haven bonds to more efficient equity investments [8][12]. Group 2: Historical Sharpe Ratio Trends - Over the past two decades, emerging markets like China and Vietnam exhibit higher volatility in Sharpe ratios compared to developed markets, with China's Sharpe ratio volatility recorded at 1.60, the highest among the analyzed economies [5][11]. - The Sharpe ratio for China in 2025 is the highest since 2014, achieved under a low volatility environment, contrasting with previous recoveries that relied on high volatility and index surges [11][12]. - If the "high efficiency, low volatility" characteristic of the Chinese stock market in 2025 becomes a trend, it could significantly reshape residents' confidence in equity assets, promoting a shift from short-term trading to long-term investment strategies [12]. Group 3: International Experience on Equity Allocation - Analysis of OECD countries shows a strong correlation between Sharpe ratios and the proportion of equity in residents' financial assets, with a 0.1 unit increase in Sharpe ratio leading to a 1.56 percentage point increase in equity allocation [6][15]. - The average Sharpe ratio for the Chinese stock market over the past decade is 0.17, with only 6.4% of urban residents' financial assets allocated to stocks, suggesting potential for increased equity allocation if the Sharpe ratio improves [15].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes a strategic long-term bullish outlook on gold, suggesting that the current global order is undergoing significant changes, similar to historical periods of upheaval, which could lead to substantial increases in gold prices over the next decade [5][18]. Group 1: Introduction and Context - The article discusses the current global landscape characterized by insecurity and fragmentation, indicating a shift from the old order to a new one, which presents challenges for establishing a new global order [2]. - It highlights the potential for gold to play a crucial role in this transition, as indicated in previous reports that suggest a strategic focus on gold due to the evolving geopolitical and economic conditions [5][6]. Group 2: Extreme Scenarios for Gold Price Predictions - **Scenario 1: Emerging Markets Increasing Gold Reserves** - Emerging markets are showing signs of restructuring their foreign exchange reserves, with countries like China and India significantly increasing their gold purchases [7][22]. - If emerging markets raise their gold reserve ratios to match developed markets, it could lead to an additional demand of 15,000 tons of gold, consuming approximately 4-5 years of global gold production [7][22]. - **Scenario 2: Collapse of Crypto Assets** - The potential collapse of Bitcoin due to quantum computing advancements and policy changes could lead to a significant influx of capital into gold, driving its price up [8][29]. - A hypothetical 20% drop in Bitcoin's market value could result in a daily influx of $380 billion into gold, exhausting market liquidity [8][29]. - **Scenario 3: Shift in Reserve Currency** - The dominance of the US dollar as a reserve currency may face structural challenges, leading to increased demand for gold as countries diversify their reserves [9][40]. - A projected decline in the dollar's share of global reserves could result in an additional demand for gold equivalent to 30,000 tons over the next decade [9][44]. - **Scenario 4: Escalation of Geopolitical Conflicts** - In the event of global military conflicts, gold is expected to be revalued as a safe-haven asset, with historical precedents indicating significant price increases during such crises [10][49]. - The assumption of a 10% annual increase in global debt during conflicts could lead to a gold price of approximately $28,000 per ounce [10][55]. - **Scenario 5: Return to the Gold Standard** - A potential return to a gold standard could drastically increase gold prices, as monetary systems would be tied to gold reserves, limiting currency issuance [11][57]. - Under this scenario, the price of gold could reach around $49,000 per ounce, reflecting the total global debt and monetary supply linked to available gold reserves [11][60]. Group 3: Methodology and Price Estimations - The article outlines a framework for predicting gold prices based on extreme scenarios, utilizing models that consider supply-demand dynamics and liquidity shocks [17][45]. - It employs historical data and market dynamics to estimate potential gold prices under various extreme conditions, indicating a significant upward trajectory for gold in the coming years [17][45].

文 ： 华创证券首席经济学家 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 李星宇（18810112501） 前言 美国既袭委内瑞拉、又图格陵兰岛之际，丹麦养老基金宣布将退出美国国债市场，加拿大总理卡尼访华时称已准备迎接"世界新秩序"…… 当今全球，"安全"、"撕裂"和"秩 序"风声鹤唳，旧秩序正逐渐式微，而新秩序建立仍挑战重重 。 不到一年，当初的"狂想"正在一步步变成今天的"现实"、不断印证着我们这篇报告的想法， 我们再次推荐、并重发这篇八个月之前的报告 ，以期给投资者更多启发： 《 黄金"狂想曲"——五种极端情形下的金价推演 》（2025.3.31） 【十年战略看多黄金系列报告】 黄金系列一：20231218-金：百年，十年，明年 黄金系列二：20240531-黄金的"非寻常"定价 而正如我们在2023年12月发布的报告《金：百年，十年，明年》中指出的，" 只要 秩序 、经济、政治、军事变局任一发酵，黄金就可能有新逻辑， 战略级别趋势看多 "；2025 年3月，我们在报告《黄金"狂想曲"——五种极端情形下的金价推演》中再次提示： "全球秩序重构的路径依然可见度较低，中期（5-10年）需战略重 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report discusses four macroeconomic counterforces that are expected to strengthen by 2025, potentially leading to a healthier economic environment in 2026, characterized by rising prices, improved corporate profits, and stable employment and consumption [2][4]. Group 1: Four Strengthening Counterforces - **Economic Structure**: By 2025, the new economy is projected to account for 20.1% of the economy, surpassing the old economy at 19.7%, marking the first time this has occurred [4][13]. - **Household Wealth**: Financial assets are expected to exceed residential assets by 2026, driven by growth in deposits, non-deposit financial investments, and stock market valuations [5][15]. - **Spending Willingness**: Despite a decline in household spending inclination, the combined spending willingness of three sectors is anticipated to rise from 107.2% in 2023 to 107.6% in 2025 [7][16]. - **Supply-Demand Imbalance**: The supply-demand contradiction in the midstream manufacturing sector is rapidly easing, with midstream demand growth projected at 8.4% for 2025, outperforming upstream and downstream sectors [8][20]. Group 2: Economic Data Analysis for Q4 - **GDP Growth**: In Q4, GDP growth was 4.5%, down from 4.8%, with a cumulative annual growth rate of 5.0% [10][22]. - **Investment Trends**: Fixed asset investment saw a significant decline of -13.2% in Q4, with real estate sales area decreasing by -17.0% [23][50]. - **Consumer Spending**: Retail sales growth in December was 0.9%, down from 1.3%, indicating a slowdown in consumer spending [31][38]. - **Employment Stability**: The urban unemployment rate remained stable at 5.1% in December, with a total of 30.115 million migrant workers, reflecting a slight increase of 0.5% year-on-year [36][30]. Group 3: December Economic Data Insights - **Production Strength**: December saw industrial output growth of 5.2%, with service sector production index at 5.0% [31][46]. - **Real Estate Market**: The real estate sector experienced a downturn, with a sales area decline of -15.6% in December and a significant investment drop of -35.8% [43][44]. - **Price Trends**: In December, the PPI decreased by -1.9%, while the CPI rose to 0.8%, indicating mixed price pressures in the economy [34][35].

Core Viewpoint - Multiple economic data from the US exceeded expectations last week, including new home sales, existing home sales, retail sales month-on-month, New York Fed manufacturing PMI, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, industrial production month-on-month, initial and continuing unemployment claims. Inflation data was generally in line with expectations, including CPI and PPI [2][4]. Group 1: Recent Economic Data and Events - In the US, several data points exceeded expectations, including new home sales, existing home sales, retail sales month-on-month, New York Fed manufacturing PMI, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, and industrial production month-on-month. Inflation data, including CPI and PPI, was generally in line with expectations [4][14]. - In the Eurozone, industrial production month-on-month for November and the January Sentix investor confidence index exceeded expectations, while the final inflation values for France, Italy, and Germany in December met expectations [5][14]. - In Japan, the current account surplus exceeded expectations, and the PPI year-on-year was in line with expectations [5][14]. Group 2: Upcoming Economic Data and Events - Key upcoming economic data to watch includes the Japanese manufacturing PMI to be released on January 23 at 8:30 AM, the Bank of Japan's policy decision around noon to afternoon, the Eurozone manufacturing PMI at 5:00 PM, and the S&P US manufacturing PMI at 10:45 PM on January 23 [6][16]. Group 3: Weekly Economic Activity Index - The US economic activity index remained stable, with the WEI index at 2.45% for the week ending January 10, compared to 2.08% the previous week [7][18]. - The German economic activity index showed a downward trend, with the WAI index at 0.03% for the week ending January 11, compared to -0.01% the previous week [8][18]. Group 4: Demand - In consumption, the US Redbook commercial retail year-on-year growth rate declined, with a reading of 5.7% for the week ending January 9, down from 7.1% the previous week [9][21]. - In real estate, US mortgage rates have decreased, with the 30-year mortgage rate at 6.06% on January 15, down from 6.16% the previous week. Mortgage applications rebounded, with the MBA market composite index at 348 for the week ending January 9, reflecting a 28.5% increase week-on-week [9][24]. Group 5: Employment - Initial and continuing unemployment claims in the US decreased, with initial claims falling to 198,000 for the week ending January 10, down from 208,000 the previous week, and continuing claims dropping from 1.914 million to 1.884 million [10][28]. - The number of job vacancies remained stable, with the INDEED job vacancy index averaging 105.34 as of January 9, slightly below the December average of 105.55 [11][29]. Group 6: Prices - Commodity prices showed a volatile recovery, with the RJ/CRB commodity price index increasing by 0.2% week-on-week as of January 16, following a 1.2% increase the previous week. US gasoline prices continued to decline, averaging $2.67 per gallon for the week ending January 12, down 0.6% week-on-week [12][31]. Group 7: Financial Conditions - US financial conditions have marginally eased, with the Bloomberg financial conditions index at 0.848 as of January 16, compared to 0.863 the previous week. In contrast, Eurozone financial conditions have tightened, with the index at 1.671 [38]. - Offshore dollar liquidity has marginally eased, with the three-month swap basis for the yen against the dollar at -15.4 pips, improving from -17 pips the previous week [40]. - The spread-to-worst for high-yield dollar corporate bonds has narrowed, with the J.P. Morgan global BB&B rated dollar corporate bond spread at 243 basis points as of January 16, down from 247.8 basis points the previous day [43]. Group 8: Fiscal - As of January 15, cumulative federal funding expenditures in the US were approximately $319.4 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 2.5% compared to $327.6 billion during the same period last year [50].