Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of professional investment analysis and the need for specialized insights in the current financial landscape [1]. Group 1 - The research team at Huachuang Securities is positioned to provide timely exchanges of viewpoints aimed at professional investors [10]. - The materials are intended solely for recognized professional investors and should not be shared with the general public [7][10]. - The analysis and opinions presented may change without notice based on subsequent reports from Huachuang Securities [11].

Core Viewpoints - The contraction of corporate loans does not affect the judgment that the worst period of the economic cycle is passing [4][6] - Overall corporate financing scale is still growing, with improvements in equity and bond financing compared to the same period last year [4][6] - The level of loans does not necessarily correspond to the health of the economy, as the ongoing recovery of the corporate-resident deposit gap indicates continuous improvement in the economic cycle [4][6] - Current market policies have reduced stock volatility, enhancing risk-adjusted returns for equities, making them more attractive compared to bonds [4][6] Group 1: Understanding Corporate Loan Contraction - In July, corporate short-term loans decreased by 550 billion, and medium to long-term loans decreased by 260 billion, indicating a seasonal factor as July is traditionally a low month for credit [13][14] - The reduction in corporate loans may benefit the Producer Price Index (PPI) by controlling the flow of loans to the manufacturing sector, which has been a focus of recent supply-side reforms [16][19] - Corporate financing is not limited to loans; direct financing has shown strong performance, indicating a shift in economic structure towards more suitable financing methods for high-tech and innovative enterprises [19][23] Group 2: July Financial Data and Its Impact on Investment Judgments - In July, non-bank deposits increased by 2.1 trillion, marking the third highest value for the year, indicating ample liquidity in financial institutions [30][31] - The ratio of resident deposits to the market value of stocks remains high, suggesting significant potential for market growth as the economic cycle improves [30][31] - The Sharpe ratio for stocks compared to bonds is increasing, indicating a reversal in the attractiveness of equities over bonds, driven by clear market stabilization policies [31][36] Group 3: July Financial Data Overview - In July, the total social financing increased by 1.16 trillion, with a year-on-year growth of 9%, while corporate loans decreased significantly [37][38] - The M2 money supply grew by 8.8% year-on-year, reflecting a healthy increase in liquidity, while new M1 also showed a positive trend [38][39] - The overall corporate financing scale continues to recover, with improvements in direct financing methods such as corporate bond and equity financing [37][39]

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人：付春生 （18482259975） 报告摘要 7月CPI的"按下葫芦浮起瓢" 美国CPI同比持平于2.7%，预期2.8%；核心CPI同比从2.9%升至3.1%，预期3.0%；超级核心服务CPI同比从 3.0%回升至3.2%。CPI环比0.2%，预期0.2%，前值0.3%；核心CPI环比0.3%，预期0.3%，前值0.2%。CPI 通胀宽度有所回落，核心CPI通胀宽度则小幅回升。从环比变化来看，CPI涨幅回落，主要受食品和能源价 格的拖累，而核心CPI涨幅有所扩大。核心CPI中，核心商品和房租的涨幅持平上月，超级核心服务价格的 涨幅扩大。 7月份CPI呈现"按下葫芦浮起瓢"的情况。第一 ，虽然因食品和能源拖累，CPI同比小幅低于预期、并未上 行，但核心CPI同比上行幅度却小幅超预期，时隔四个月再度回到3%以上。 第二，关 税的价格效应在7月 数据中继续温和呈现，核心商品价格环比持平于上月的0.2%。但超级核心服务价格环比出现了加速现象， 环比从0.21%升至0.48%，高于过去两年同期均值的0.3%，这可能也 ...

始出现紧张。 从2023Q3国债供给恐慌的复盘来看,今年三季度如果 美债收益率因为国债供给增加、流动性收紧等因素出现 快速走高,可能成为倒逼美联储加速宽松的诱因,届时 可能进一步明确美联储在9月重启降息以对冲利率走高 对经济的冲击、同时美联储可能退出量化紧缩。 2025Q3财政部计划再融资规模1.007万亿美元 7.50 7.00 1.50 1 00 0.50 nt.ill.hillil. (0.50) 2018-09 2019-03 2017-09 2018-03 2019-09 2020-03 60 Too 012-09 014-05 015-03 2016-09 2017-03 023-03 023-09 013-03 013-09 014-03 2015-09 2016-03 2024-03 2024-09 011-09 012-03 025-03 025-09 ■财政部实际融资金额(2025Q2-Q3为预测值,万亿美元) Q3中长期国债净发行4700亿美元,短期国债净发行5370亿美元 0.80 3.00 7 40 0.60 0.40 0.20 023-12 020-12 021-09 023-03 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article presents five key judgments regarding the current economic situation in China, indicating that the worst period of economic circulation is likely over, and emphasizes a shift away from reliance on extraordinary policies and the loosest monetary policy phase [2][18]. Group 1: Economic Circulation - The worst period of economic circulation is likely passing, with a GDP growth rate of 5.3% in the first half of the year and leading indicators showing objective improvement [2][3]. - Key indicators of economic circulation include the difference in growth rates between corporate and household deposits, M1 growth, and various measures of household savings behavior, all of which have shown signs of recovery over the past 6-9 months [3][4]. Group 2: Policy Changes - The reliance on extraordinary policy measures is diminishing, with a focus on the effectiveness of existing policies rather than new ones, as evidenced by a 8.9% increase in fiscal spending in the first half of the year [7][8]. - The potential for new incremental policies in the second half of the year is significantly reduced, with a focus on monitoring the release of household deposits and leading indicators [7][8]. Group 3: Monetary Policy - The period of the most accommodative monetary policy is likely coming to an end, as indicated by the current state of household deposits and the relationship between deposit behavior and monetary policy [9][12]. - The total household deposits have reached 160 trillion, with a significant portion being precautionary savings, suggesting a shift in monetary policy dynamics [9][12]. Group 4: Investment Landscape - The relative attractiveness of bonds compared to stocks is changing, with a notable increase in the Sharpe ratio for stocks, indicating a potential shift in asset allocation from bonds to stocks [12][14]. - The capital market's stability and attractiveness are being reinforced by policy interventions, which have reduced volatility and downside risks in the stock market [12][14]. Group 5: Competition and Market Dynamics - The current phase of intense competition driven by unfair practices is likely coming to an end, with ongoing efforts to regulate and optimize market competition [14][16]. - The government is focusing on enhancing market order and addressing issues related to unfair competition, which may positively impact economic circulation and pricing [16][17].

Core Viewpoint - The "valuation-dividend" quadrant analysis framework indicates that industries with low valuation (P/E percentile < 50%) and high dividend yield (> 3%) (Quadrant II) exhibit significant excess returns, while high valuation and low dividend yield industries (Quadrant IV) face notable correction risks. The food and beverage industry has transitioned from a high valuation trap (Quadrant IV) in 2021 to a low valuation and high dividend yield zone (Quadrant II) after four years of valuation digestion, enhancing its investment attractiveness and safety margin due to a low valuation level (12.0% historical percentile) and a relatively high dividend yield (3.6%) [2][6]. Group 1: Valuation-Dividend Quadrant Model - The "valuation-dividend" quadrant model is constructed using valuation and dividend dimensions to assess industry allocation value. The horizontal axis represents the P/E percentile, calculated using dynamic historical percentiles from the past 20 years, while the vertical axis represents the rolling dividend yield from the past 12 months. Quadrant I includes high valuation (historical percentile > 50%) and high dividend yield (> 3%) industries, Quadrant II includes low valuation (historical percentile < 50%) and high dividend yield (> 3%) industries, Quadrant III includes low valuation (historical percentile < 50%) and low dividend yield (< 3%) industries, and Quadrant IV includes high valuation (historical percentile > 50%) and low dividend yield (< 3%) industries. Historically, industries in Quadrant II tend to have better risk-return ratios and allocation value, while Quadrant IV industries require caution [4][15]. Group 2: Historical Validation - As of the end of 2023, the banking industry was in Quadrant II, with a dividend yield of 6.0% and a P/E percentile of only 0.3%. This configuration highlighted the industry's allocation value, leading to a significant outperformance of the banking sector, which rose by 52.83% from early 2024 to August 8, 2025, outperforming the broader market by 30.64 percentage points [18]. - In contrast, during the market peak in Q3 2021, the food and beverage and power equipment industries were in Quadrant IV, with dividend yields of 1.1% and 0.4%, and P/E historical percentiles of 78.0% and 82.3%, respectively. These industries subsequently underperformed the market, with returns from Q4 2021 to August 8, 2025, being -34.82% and -34.75%, lagging the broader market by approximately 35 percentage points [19]. Group 3: Food and Beverage Industry Transition - The food and beverage industry has transitioned from a risk zone to a value zone, entering Quadrant II as of August 8, 2025, with a P/E percentile of 12.0% and a dividend yield of 3.6%. This shift signifies a qualitative change, as the current low valuation level and relatively high dividend yield enhance the industry's allocation cost-effectiveness and safety margin [22]. Group 4: Weekly Economic Observation - The Huachuang Macro WEI index rose to over 7%, reaching 7.28% as of August 3, 2025, up from 6.35% on July 27, 2025. The increase is primarily driven by infrastructure (asphalt operating rate) and durable goods consumption (passenger car sales) [7][25]. - In real estate, the decline in residential sales has narrowed, with a year-on-year decrease of -17% in the first week of August across 67 cities, compared to -22% in July [8][29]. - The operating rate of asphalt facilities was 31.7% as of August 6, 2025, showing a year-on-year increase of 5.2%, while cement dispatch rates were at 39.2%, slightly down from the previous week but better than the same period last year [33].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights recent policy developments in China, focusing on education, financial support for industrialization, and rural infrastructure improvements, indicating a strategic push towards enhancing social welfare and economic resilience [2][3][11][12]. Group 1: Education Policy - On August 5, the State Council issued an opinion to gradually implement free preschool education, starting from the autumn semester of 2025, which will exempt public kindergarten fees for approximately 12 million children, resulting in an estimated increase in national fiscal expenditure of about 20 billion yuan for the upcoming semester [11]. - The policy aims to reduce family expenses by an equivalent amount and will be funded jointly by central and local governments, with the central government covering a larger share [11]. Group 2: Financial Support for Industrialization - On August 5, the People's Bank of China and seven other departments released guidelines to support new industrialization, emphasizing the need for financial institutions to provide long-term financing for key manufacturing sectors such as integrated circuits, medical equipment, and advanced materials [12]. - The guidelines encourage financing for emerging industries like new energy, high-end equipment, and biomedicine, while also stressing the importance of risk management to prevent misuse of funds [12]. Group 3: Rural Infrastructure Development - On August 6, the Ministry of Transport announced a new round of rural road improvement plans, aiming to complete the construction and renovation of 300,000 kilometers of rural roads by 2027, with 130,000 kilometers targeted for completion in 2024 [3].

Core Viewpoint - The global manufacturing sector is likely to experience a moderate slowdown, but there are structural highlights, particularly in ASEAN countries and Africa, where manufacturing sentiment remains high. Short-term positive trends may also be observed in ASEAN countries and the Eurozone manufacturing PMI [2][22]. Group 1: Global Manufacturing Cycle Status - The global manufacturing cycle is closely linked to global trade growth, analyzed through hard indicators like industrial production and soft indicators like manufacturing PMI [4][12]. - From the global industrial production index, there has been a decline in year-on-year growth from 3.6% in March to 3.1% in May, still above last year's average of 1.7% [5][14]. - The main contributors to growth are China, the Eurozone, developed Asian economies (excluding Japan), Africa, and the Middle East, with the top four regions contributing 2.8% to the global industrial production index [5][14]. - The Eurozone is leading in growth, while emerging Asian economies (excluding China) are experiencing declines, indicating a recovery in Eurozone industrial demand [5][14]. Group 2: Global Manufacturing PMI Analysis - The global manufacturing PMI has dropped below the expansion threshold to 49.7% in July from 50.4% in June, indicating a weakening manufacturing cycle [6][20]. - Factors suppressing manufacturing activity in the second half of the year include significant order front-loading in the first half, leading to a decline in new export orders and a reduction in inventory levels in the U.S. [6][20]. - Emerging markets are performing better than developed markets, but the gap is narrowing, with July manufacturing PMI for emerging markets at 50.5% and developed markets at 49.1% [7][20]. - Among 22 sample economies, only five had manufacturing PMI above the expansion line in July, with India leading at 59.1% [7][21]. - Notably, 14 economies saw an increase in manufacturing PMI from June to July, with Vietnam showing the largest increase of 3.5 points [7][21]. Group 3: Key Data Review and Tracking - Upcoming key economic data includes the U.S. July CPI on August 12 [29]. - Recent data shows the U.S. composite PMI exceeded expectations, while the Eurozone's performance was below expectations [30]. - The U.S. retail sales growth rebounded, with a year-on-year increase of 6.5% reported [34].

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Core Viewpoint - The article focuses on five recent consumer stimulus policies and their impact on the economy, highlighting the potential benefits and scale of these initiatives [2][3]. Group 1: Policy Summaries - **Reduction of Burden: Kindergarten Fee Exemption** The policy aims to exempt public kindergarten fees starting from the 2025 autumn semester, benefiting approximately 12 million children and reducing household expenditures by about 40 billion annually [4][14]. - **Increase in Income: Pension Standard Enhancement** The pension for retirees will be raised by 2% in 2025, affecting around 147 million urban retirees, with an estimated financial impact of approximately 135.3 billion [5][16]. - **Cost Reduction: Consumer Loan Interest Subsidy** A consumer loan interest subsidy policy is being implemented, with a pilot in Sichuan showing a 1.5% subsidy rate. The first month of implementation saw a rise in consumer loan growth from 7.2% to 8.1% [6][19]. - **Renewal: Consumer Goods Trade-In Program** A total of 300 billion in special bonds will support a trade-in program for consumer goods, with over 280 million people benefiting and sales exceeding 1.6 trillion, surpassing the total for 2024 [7][23]. - **Scene Creation: Summer Consumption Season Activities** The Ministry of Culture and Tourism organized a summer consumption season with over 4,300 events and 5.7 billion in subsidies, leading to increased travel and spending [9][26][27]. Group 2: Impact Assessments - **Kindergarten Fee Exemption Impact** The exemption is expected to lead to a consumption increase of approximately 272 billion, representing 0.06% of the projected 48.8 trillion in retail sales for 2024 [4][14]. - **Pension Increase Impact** The pension adjustment will result in an additional 135.3 billion in expenditures from the urban employee pension fund, reflecting a significant financial commitment [5][16]. - **Consumer Loan Subsidy Impact** The pilot program in Sichuan has shown positive effects on consumer behavior, particularly in durable goods sectors, indicating a potential for broader economic improvement [6][19]. - **Trade-In Program Impact** The trade-in program has already exceeded expectations, with sales figures indicating a robust consumer response and a significant contribution to the economy [7][23]. - **Summer Activities Impact** The summer consumption season has led to increased travel and spending, with notable growth in passenger numbers for rail and air travel [9][26][27].