Core Viewpoint - The document emphasizes that the research material is intended solely for professional investors associated with Huachuang Securities, highlighting the importance of appropriate investor suitability management [1][3]. Group 1 - The research team at Huachuang Securities is positioned to provide timely exchanges of viewpoints specifically for professional investors in the context of new media [3]. - The material is derived from previously published research reports by Huachuang Securities, and any discrepancies should refer to the complete content of the original reports [4]. - The opinions and analyses presented may change without notice based on subsequent reports from Huachuang Securities [4].

Core Viewpoint - The significant divergence between the stock-bond Sharpe ratio and price trends indicates a notable recovery in the attractiveness of equities compared to bonds, although the price response has been lagging [2][6][22]. Group 1: Key Indicators - Over the past two years, equity assets have underperformed compared to bond assets, with the ten-year government bond yield hitting record lows while the dividend yield of the Wande All A index has reached new highs [6][14]. - The decline in the equity-bond yield spread suggests a growing preference for bond assets, as investors demand higher dividend returns from equity assets [6][14]. - The underperformance of equity assets is attributed to their higher volatility and drawdown compared to bonds, leading to a preference for lower-risk bond investments [6][19]. Group 2: Underlying Logic - The recovery in the stock-bond Sharpe ratio is primarily driven by policy measures that have mitigated risks, limiting downward expressions in the stock market and reducing volatility [3][8][26]. - Economic indicators, such as the scissors difference between corporate and household deposits, have shown signs of recovery since September 2024, suggesting that profit growth may be nearing its bottom [3][9][26]. Group 3: Investment Insights - The "highlight moment" for equities may occur earlier than expected, as the current environment shows a significant increase in the stock Sharpe ratio despite economic bottoming [4][10]. - The relationship between stocks and bonds in China is shifting towards favoring equities, with expectations that bonds may decline while stocks rise [4][11][30]. - Given the macroeconomic conditions, there is a need to emphasize the allocation value of equities compared to bonds [4][11].

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人：夏雪 （微信 SuperSummerSnow） 目前，从已经披露的 28 个经济体的新定税率来看 ，巴西最高，为 50% ，其次是缅甸和老挝，为 40% ，泰国、柬埔寨、加拿大税率位列第三档，税率分别定 为 36% 、 36% 、 35% ，欧盟税率则为 30% ，日本、韩国税率定为 25% ，而越南、印尼、英国，与美国达成贸易协议（越南并未最终敲定），税率最低， 分别定为 20% 、 19% 、 10% 。 一、美国贸易谈判进展跟踪 （一）对等关税 2.0 概况 1 、新关税率是多少？详见图 1 7 月 7 日，特朗普签署行政令，将互惠对等关税暂停期延长至 8 月 1 日，并陆续向数十个贸易伙伴发送函件，宣布新的关税率将于 8 月 1 日生效，新的关税 率与 4 月 2 号对等关税率大体相同，在 10%-50% 之间。此外， 7 月 17 日，特朗普接受采访时表示，将向 150 多个国家发送关税信函，关税率可能是 10% 或 15% ，还没有最终决定。 核心观点 1 ） 7 月 7 日，特朗普签署行政令， ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of observing industrial concentration at both regional and industry levels to avoid "involution" and promote healthy industrial development [2][4]. Regional Perspective: Core Industries of Each Province - The average revenue share of the top-ranked industry in 30 provinces is 19.7%, with notable provinces exceeding 20%: Jilin (42.3% in automotive), Shanxi (38.7% in coal mining), Hebei (29.6% in black metal smelting), Beijing (28.4% in electric heat), Guangdong (25.7% in electronic equipment manufacturing), Hainan (25.6% in fuel processing), Shanghai (20.9% in automotive), Inner Mongolia (20.7% in coal mining), and Chongqing (20.6% in electronic equipment manufacturing [4][10]. - The combined revenue share of the top five industries in each province averages 54.9%, with higher concentrations in provinces like Hainan (66.4%), Shanxi (71.7%), Beijing (70.6%), Jilin (69.3%), Ningxia (67%), and Qinghai (79.5%) [4][10]. Industry Perspective: Advantageous Regions for Each Industry - The top five provinces in terms of industrial revenue account for 47.4% of the national industrial revenue, with Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong, and Fujian being the largest [5][13]. - The average concentration of the top five industries across 41 sectors is 59.7%, with lower concentrations observed in sectors such as non-ferrous metal mining, food processing, and pharmaceutical manufacturing [5][13]. - In the midstream equipment manufacturing sector, notable concentration levels include electrical machinery (66.2%), electronic equipment (63.1%), and instruments (68.8%) [5][13]. Industry Presence Across Provinces - Eight industries, including electric heat, electronic equipment, and automotive, rank among the top five in revenue across more than ten provinces, indicating significant investment in these sectors [6][14]. - Conversely, industries like pharmaceutical manufacturing and specialized equipment manufacturing are only ranked in the top five in a limited number of provinces, highlighting potential areas for growth or investment [6][14].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current economic trends in China, highlighting both upward and downward movements in various sectors, including real estate, consumer goods, and infrastructure, while also noting the impact of external trade dynamics. Group 1: Economic Upturn - Land premium rates have rebounded to 7% as of July 13, with a two-week average of 5.9%, compared to 5.47% in June and 4.93% in May [2][10] - Domestic resource prices continue to rise, with significant increases in coal and steel prices, including a 1.6% rise in Shanxi thermal coal and a 6.7% increase in main coking coal prices [2][35] - Infrastructure activities are performing better than last year, with the oil asphalt operating rate at 32.8%, up 6.3% year-on-year, and cement dispatch rates at 40.1%, compared to 37.4% last year [2][16] Group 2: Economic Downturn - The Huachuang Macro WEI index has decreased to 5.96% as of July 13, down from 7.05% on July 6, indicating a decline in economic activity [3][5] - Retail sales growth for passenger vehicles has slowed, with a year-on-year increase of 6.6% as of July 13, down from 15% in June and 13.3% in May [3][9] - The decline in residential property sales has widened, with a 23.7% decrease in transaction area for 67 cities as of July 18, compared to a 17.6% decline in June [3][9] Group 3: Trade Dynamics - Port container throughput has decreased, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 3.2% as of July 13, down from 4.5% the previous week [3][20] - The number of container ships from China to the U.S. has also declined, with a 15-day year-on-year decrease of approximately 11.1% as of July 19 [3][21] Group 4: Debt and Interest Rates - The issuance of special bonds has accelerated, with 2.59 trillion yuan issued as of July 18, representing 59% of the annual target, faster than the 42% progress of the previous year [4][41] - Bond market yields have shown fluctuations, with the one-year, five-year, and ten-year government bond yields reported at 1.3490%, 1.5256%, and 1.6652%, respectively, as of July 18 [4][60]

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 袁玲玲（微信 Yuen43） 报告摘要 2 、中美关系 ： 1 ） 7 月 17 日 ，国家主席夫人彭丽媛出席 2025 年"鼓岭缘"中美青少年联谊活 动。 2 ） 7 月 18 日 ，商务部新闻发言人答记者问时提到，"中方依法审批符合条件的管制物项出口 申请，美方于 7 月上旬相应取消了会谈涉及的对华限制措施。我们注意到，美方近日又主动表示将批 准对华销售英伟达 H20 芯片"。 风险提示： 政策更新不及时。 报告正文 一、 近一周党中央及国务院⾼层重要⾏程 近一周临近 7 月中央政治局会议，我们主要关注中央及相关部委对经济形势判断、宏观政策吹风。 1 、经济形势判断 ： 7 月 15 日，国新办举⾏新闻发布会介绍 2025 年上半年国民经济运⾏情况，国 家统计局指出，"上半年……国民经济顶住压力、迎难而上，经济运⾏总体平稳、稳中向好"。 2 、货币政策 ： 7 月 14 日，国新办举⾏新闻发布会，介绍 2025 年上半年货币信贷政策执⾏及金融 统计数据情况，央⾏指出， ...

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the Inflation Reduction Act has resolved the U.S. debt ceiling issue, leading to market concerns about a significant increase in U.S. Treasury supply in Q3, potentially repeating the rapid interest rate rise seen in 2023Q3. The net issuance of Treasuries in Q3 may reach approximately $1.12 trillion, second only to 2020Q2, indicating substantial supply pressure. However, historical analysis suggests that this increase is already anticipated by the market, and a rapid rise in rates would require sustained economic growth to support it, making a repeat of the 2023Q3 scenario unlikely. If Treasury rates rise significantly in 2023Q3, it could prompt the Federal Reserve to accelerate its easing cycle [2][9]. Group 1 - The estimated net issuance of Treasuries for 2025Q3 is approximately $1.12 trillion, which is only second to the peak in 2020Q2 and exceeds the actual financing amount of $1.01 trillion in 2023Q3 [4][10][18]. - The net issuance of Treasuries is calculated as the sum of the fiscal deficit and changes in the Treasury General Account (TGA) balance, with the fiscal deficit for 2025Q3 estimated at $0.6 trillion and TGA net growth at $0.52 trillion [4][10][18]. - The actual quarterly financing amount from the Treasury is expected to be around $1.12 trillion, slightly higher than the financing amount during the supply panic in 2023Q3 [19]. Group 2 - The supply panic in 2023Q3 was primarily due to the actual quarterly financing amount significantly exceeding expectations, with a financing amount of $1.01 trillion compared to an expected $0.85 trillion [5][23][25]. - The TGA balance at the beginning of 2023Q3 was lower than anticipated due to the debt ceiling issue, which contributed to the supply panic [5][25][26]. - For 2025Q3, the expected Treasury supply is anticipated to align with market expectations, reducing the likelihood of a repeat of the 2023Q3 panic [26][28]. Group 3 - The pressure from maturing Treasuries in Q3 is not expected to be significant, with a total maturity amount of approximately $7.2 trillion for 2025Q3, which does not represent a substantial increase compared to historical data [6][33]. - The total maturity amount for medium- and long-term Treasuries in 2025 is estimated at $3.3 trillion, with $0.85 trillion maturing in 2025Q3 [6][33]. Group 4 - The total issuance of Treasuries for 2025 is estimated at $30.6 trillion, with $8.32 trillion expected in 2025Q3, indicating a high issuance pressure [7][36]. - Adjusting the debt issuance structure by increasing the proportion of short-term debt could alleviate some pressure on long-term debt issuance, but it cannot fully offset the issuance pressure in Q3 [7][45]. - The historical trend shows that the proportion of medium- and long-term debt issuance has decreased, with the current structure potentially leading to excessive short-term debt issuance that the market may struggle to absorb [7][42][44].

Core Viewpoint - The cross-border capital flow pattern in Q1 2025 is similar to that of Q4 2023 to Q3 2024, with foreign capital continuing to net inflow while domestic capital experiences a net outflow, reaching the highest level since Q1 2021 [2][4] Group 1: Cross-Border Capital Flow Overview - In Q1 2025, cross-border capital continued to net outflow, amounting to $316.7 billion, with domestic capital outflow reaching $481.1 billion, the highest since Q1 2021 [4][11] - The main drivers of the domestic capital outflow include domestic investors purchasing overseas stocks and investment funds through channels like "Hong Kong Stock Connect," leading to a securities investment outflow of $164.5 billion [4][11] - Domestic direct investment outflow was $143.6 billion, reflecting a proactive "going out" strategy by Chinese enterprises [4][11] Group 2: Domestic Securities Investment - The outflow of domestic securities investment in Q1 2025 reached a historical record since 2011, totaling $164.5 billion, while foreign securities investment saw a net inflow of $121.8 billion [5][13] - The outflow included $125.1 billion from equity investments and $39.4 billion from bond investments, with the main channels being "Hong Kong Stock Connect" and Qualified Domestic Institutional Investor (QDII) programs [5][13][14] - Foreign equity investment shifted from a net outflow of $85.7 billion in Q4 2024 to a significant net inflow of $121.8 billion in Q1 2025, driven by positive market expectations for Chinese technology stocks [5][14] Group 3: Domestic Direct Investment - Domestic direct investment outflow reached $143.6 billion in Q1 2025, the highest since Q1 2021, with total direct investment net outflow at $110.3 billion [6][18] - The increase in domestic direct investment outflow is attributed to the restructuring of global supply chains and the deep integration of the Chinese market with global markets [6][18] Group 4: Trade Credit - Trade credit net outflow in Q1 2025 reached $44.2 billion, the highest since Q4 2015, with domestic trade credit outflow of $18.3 billion [7][23] - The outflow was influenced by market expectations of RMB appreciation and changes in import and export settlement rates [7][23] Group 5: Monetary Gold Growth - Monetary gold increased by $38.3 billion in Q1 2025, marking a record since 2011, with the central bank accumulating a total of 11.26 million ounces of gold since November 2022 [8][29] - This increase is part of the fifth round of gold accumulation by the central bank since 2000, reflecting a strategic move in response to global economic conditions [8][29] Group 6: Capital Flow Breakdown - In Q1 2025, total capital outflow was $512.1 billion, a 58.8% increase from the previous quarter, primarily driven by increased overseas investments by domestic investors [42][43] - The capital outflow was significantly influenced by a $30.5 billion increase in overseas investments and a $78.3 billion increase in reserve assets [42][43] Group 7: Capital Inflow Breakdown - Total capital inflow in Q1 2025 was $195.4 billion, with foreign investors contributing $153.5 billion through domestic asset investments [45][46] - The inflow was supported by a $12.1 billion increase in direct investments and a $121.8 billion increase in securities investments [45][46]

Core Viewpoint - The report emphasizes that "quantity" is more important than "price" this year, focusing on the impact of inflation risks on the U.S. economy and its implications for exports and employment [2][11]. Group 1: Impact of Inflation on U.S. Economy - Inflation may erode the real income and consumption capacity of U.S. consumers, particularly among low- and middle-income groups, negatively affecting their purchasing power and increasing wealth disparity [3][12]. - A significant rise in inflation could suppress risk appetite, leading to a decline in U.S. stock markets, which would adversely affect the wealth effect for high-income groups and consequently impact service consumption [3][18]. - Rising inflation, combined with tax cuts, may raise concerns about the sustainability of U.S. public debt, potentially keeping long-term U.S. Treasury yields high and constraining fiscal expansion [4][26][27]. - If inflation rises significantly, it could limit the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates, reducing the effectiveness of monetary policy in countering potential economic and employment downturns [4][32]. Group 2: Observing Short-term Inflation Risks - Various dimensions indicate short-term inflationary pressures, particularly in price expectations and surveys, while actual prices and economic indicators suggest a more stable inflation trajectory [5][35]. - Consumer inflation expectations tend to synchronize with U.S. CPI year-on-year changes but may lead actual inflation trends by 1-2 quarters during significant inflationary periods [5][36]. - Price surveys from businesses generally lead U.S. CPI changes by 2-5 months, indicating potential inflation trends [5][37]. - Financial market indicators, such as implied inflation rates from U.S. Treasury bonds, also lead CPI changes by about 2 months [5][46]. Group 3: Constructing a Leading Index for U.S. Inflation - A comprehensive leading index for U.S. inflation has been constructed using various dimensions, showing a correlation with U.S. CPI changes, leading by approximately 2 months [8][61]. - The leading index indicates that inflationary pressures are primarily driven by cost factors, with other dimensions showing limited upward pressure [8][68]. - The recent rise in the comprehensive leading index suggests a potential increase in U.S. CPI, with predictions indicating a possible rise to around 3.2% in July [8][69].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of tariffs on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the United States, highlighting how tariff increases have contributed to inflationary pressures in recent months [2][3][4]. Group 1: Tariff Impact on CPI - The inflation effect of tariffs is evident in the June data, with notable increases in prices for furniture (1%), clothing (0.4%), and entertainment goods (0.8%) [3][8]. - It is estimated that tariffs have already been reflected in the CPI, with a potential impact of 14% if core goods prices remained at February levels, or 40% if they followed last year's declining trend [4][14]. - The overall effective tariff rate in the U.S. increased by approximately 8.3 percentage points from March to June, with the latest estimate suggesting it could rise to 17.3% [10][19]. Group 2: Remaining Tariff Effects - If the overall tariff rate reaches 17.3%, the remaining unreflected tariff impact on core goods prices could contribute an additional 0.5 to 0.54 percentage points to the overall CPI [19]. - Projections indicate that if the remaining tariff effects are realized gradually over the next three months, the CPI year-on-year could be 3.2% and 3.3% for the third and fourth quarters, respectively [19][29]. Group 3: June CPI Data Analysis - The June CPI rose to 2.7% year-on-year, slightly below expectations, while the core CPI increased to 2.9% [20][29]. - The breadth of CPI inflation has widened, with the proportion of items with year-on-year increases exceeding 2% rising from 40.8% to 44.1% [20][24]. - Core goods prices saw a significant increase, with the CPI for core goods rising from 0% to 0.2% month-on-month, driven by higher prices in imported goods [24][26]. Group 4: Market Reaction - Following the CPI report, market expectations for interest rate cuts have slightly cooled, with the anticipated number of cuts decreasing from 1.93 to 1.76 [29]. - The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.53% to 98.63, and the yield on ten-year U.S. Treasury bonds increased by 4.8 basis points to 4.481% [29].