Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that while the liquidity in the real economy is improving, the pace of this improvement has significantly slowed down, and the liquidity in the financial market is facing challenges [2][11][12] - The analysis indicates that the enterprise-resident deposit scissors difference, which serves as a leading indicator for profits, shows a trend of improvement but at a slower rate compared to earlier months [2][12] - The article forecasts that the growth rate of M2 will continue to decline due to weak effective financing demand in the real economy, and the trend of residents moving deposits will persist but may slow down marginally in 2026 [2][7][20] Group 2 - The article discusses the impact of M2 growth on liquidity, noting that the current effective financing demand is weak, which affects the ability of banks to expand their balance sheets [21][22] - It highlights that the trend of residents moving deposits is influenced by the comparison of financial asset returns to deposit returns, with a noted decline in new deposits since the third quarter [23][26] - The report indicates that the social financing scale has shown improvement, particularly in corporate bond financing, while the overall M2 growth has decreased, reflecting a complex liquidity environment [32][34] Group 3 - The financial data for November shows that RMB loans increased by 390 billion, with a notable decrease in resident loans, indicating a weak demand for credit [30] - The social financing scale increased by 24,885 billion, with corporate bond financing continuing to improve, suggesting a positive trend in corporate financing despite challenges in other areas [32] - The M2 growth rate for November was 8%, reflecting a 0.2% decline from the previous month, indicating a continued downward trend in money supply growth [34]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced the initiation of the Reserve Management Purchases (RMP) tool starting December 12, with a plan to purchase $40 billion of short-term Treasury securities in the first month, maintaining a high level of purchases in subsequent months. This RMP is expected to inject approximately $150 billion in reserves into the market, lasting until Q2 2026, primarily focusing on ultra-short-term Treasury securities [2][5][25]. Group 1: Actions by the Federal Reserve - The RMP is a significant highlight of the December FOMC meeting, aimed at maintaining adequate reserve levels and addressing seasonal fluctuations in the Treasury General Account (TGA) [5][6]. - The RMP will primarily purchase short-term Treasury securities, with 75% of purchases targeting securities with maturities of 1-4 months [25][26]. - The RMP is expected to last at least until Q2 2026, with a target reserve balance of around $3 trillion, requiring an injection of approximately $150 billion in reserves [6][28]. Group 2: Economic Implications of RMP - The RMP is expected to improve short-term liquidity, benefiting the stock market by facilitating "loose trading" conditions. However, it is not equivalent to quantitative easing (QE) and may have limited effects on long-term interest rates and financing costs for the real economy [7][35]. - The RMP's operational scale is designed to counteract seasonal liquidity pressures, particularly during tax payment periods, which can tighten market liquidity [6][29]. Group 3: Current Liquidity Conditions - The current reserve levels are slightly below the reasonable range, with the reserve balance to nominal GDP ratio at 9.5% and the reserve balance to total bank assets ratio at 11.8% [8][45]. - Maintaining adequate reserve levels is crucial for the effective implementation of the Federal Reserve's "floor system" monetary policy framework, which relies on sufficient reserves to control market interest rates [9][51]. - The liquidity conditions are tighter than desired, but the situation is better than during the previous QT phase, reducing the risk of a liquidity crisis [41][60].

Group 1 - The external environment is showing signs of improvement, with exports maintaining a growth rate of 5.4% from January to November, indicating resilience in external demand [2] - The government is shifting from extraordinary to more conventional counter-cyclical policies, emphasizing the effectiveness of existing policies rather than relying on new stimulus measures [3] - Risk management pressures have eased, with significant risks in real estate and hidden debts being largely controlled, allowing the government to focus on other areas such as reform and opening up [4] Group 2 - Fiscal support may see a reduction, with projected budget growth rates for 2023-2025 at 3.3%, 5.1%, and 5.1%, aligning closely with economic targets [6] - The fiscal deficit is expected to remain around 4% in 2026, indicating a stabilization rather than an increase in deficit levels [7] - The economy is transitioning from a state of insufficient demand to a situation characterized by strong supply but weak demand, with a focus on resolving these issues through supply-side measures [8] Group 3 - The midstream manufacturing sector is expected to remain the most stable and promising area, benefiting from resilient external demand and domestic supply constraints [10]

Core Viewpoint - The December FOMC meeting resulted in a 25 basis point rate cut to a target range of 3.5%-3.75%, aligning with market expectations, while the Fed's tone remained neutral to slightly hawkish [2][20] Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - The Fed's decision to cut rates by 25 basis points was anticipated, with 3 out of 12 FOMC members opposing the cut, indicating internal dissent [20] - The dot plot indicates only one rate cut is expected next year, which is below market pricing of two cuts [3][12] - The Fed's economic outlook is described as "Goldilocks," with upward revisions to GDP growth forecasts for 2025-2028 and downward revisions to inflation forecasts for the same period [6][21] Group 2: Economic Projections - GDP growth forecasts for Q4 of 2025, 2026, 2027, and 2028 are now projected at 1.7%, 2.3%, 2.0%, and 1.9% respectively, compared to previous estimates of 1.6%, 1.8%, 1.9%, and 1.8% [21] - Core PCE inflation forecasts for the same periods are adjusted to 3.0%, 2.5%, 2.1%, and 2.0%, down from 3.1%, 2.6%, 2.1%, and 2.0% [21] Group 3: Balance Sheet Management - The Fed is restarting "Reserve Management Purchases" (RMP) to maintain adequate reserve levels, with a purchase scale of $40 billion per month starting this December [14][35] - RMP is distinct from quantitative easing (QE), as it involves purchasing short-term Treasury securities to manage liquidity rather than a broad monetary policy shift [15][16] Group 4: Market Reactions - Following the FOMC meeting, the stock market saw gains, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 1.05%, and the S&P 500 increasing by 0.67% [38] - The dollar index fell by 0.6% to 97.24, while yields on 10-year and 2-year Treasury bonds decreased [38]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the improvement in inflation data for November, highlighting the trends in CPI and PPI, and outlines key macroeconomic price clues for the upcoming year [2][4][9]. Group 1: November Inflation Data - CPI year-on-year increased from 0.2% to 0.7%, meeting expectations, while core CPI remained stable at 1.2%, maintaining a high level since 2022 [2][9]. - PPI year-on-year decreased from -2.1% to -2.2%, with expectations of -2%, indicating a continued decline influenced by high base effects [2][9]. - The GDP deflator for November is estimated at around -0.4%, slightly better than the previous month's estimate of -0.5% [2][9]. Group 2: Key Factors Influencing CPI - The significant rise in CPI is primarily driven by food prices, which increased by 0.5% month-on-month, contrasting with a decline of -2.7% in the same month last year [2][9]. - Seasonal factors have positively impacted fresh vegetable prices, which rose by 7.2% due to adverse weather conditions affecting production and transportation [2][9]. - Core CPI's stability is attributed to the continuous rise in medical service prices, which have increased for eight consecutive months, and the impact of rising gold prices [2][9]. Group 3: PPI Trends - PPI increased by 0.1% month-on-month for two consecutive months, driven by seasonal demand in coal and gas industries [3][30]. - The input factors have led to a decline in domestic oil-related industry prices while prices in the non-ferrous sector have risen [3][30]. - The equipment manufacturing sector shows signs of marginal improvement, with computer and communication electronics prices rising by 0.1% [3][30]. Group 4: Macroeconomic Price Clues for Next Year - CPI is expected to show a confirmed upward trend next year, with projections indicating a year-on-year increase of approximately 0.7% [4][10]. - PPI is also anticipated to recover, although the timing for a positive shift remains uncertain, with a projected year-on-year average of -1.4% [4][10]. - The improvement in the supply-demand relationship in the midstream equipment manufacturing sector is crucial for stabilizing PPI [4][15]. Group 5: Potential Risks and Opportunities - The potential upward risk for CPI includes improvements in service sector price increases, particularly if consumer subsidy policies expand to service consumption [5][12]. - The midstream equipment manufacturing sector's supply-demand dynamics are critical, as historical patterns suggest a lag of 6-7 quarters before PPI prices stabilize after supply growth falls below demand growth [4][15].

Core Viewpoint - In November, China's exports in USD terms increased by 5.9% year-on-year, exceeding expectations of 3.8% and rebounding from a previous decline of -1.1% [2][46] Group 1: Export Strength in Midstream - The export growth rate rebounded significantly in November, with a 7 percentage point increase compared to the previous month, influenced by base effects and resilient demand [4][13] - The manufacturing PMI new export orders showed a substantial recovery across all industries, indicating improved export demand [4][14] - The overall growth momentum has marginally recovered to seasonal averages, with a three-month moving average of 1.1% in November, slightly below the historical average of 1.4% [4][14] Group 2: Category Analysis - Exports are strong in electromechanical products, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 7.9% from January to November, contributing 87% to the overall export growth [8][20] - The "three main electromechanical products" (cars, ships, integrated circuits) have seen export growth rates exceeding 15% [8][21] - Labor-intensive products, in contrast, showed a cumulative year-on-year decline of -4.3% from January to November, negatively impacting overall export growth [8][20] Group 3: Regional Analysis - Exports to emerging markets are strong, while exports to the US are weak, with a year-on-year decline of -28.8% in November [29][56] - The share of exports to the US has decreased by 3.4 percentage points to 11.3%, while ASEAN's share increased by 1.1 percentage points to 17.5% [30][63] - If US import demand stabilizes, China's exports to the US may rebound significantly due to low base effects [30][31] Group 4: Future Export Resilience - In December, the elevated base may lead to a 2-3 percentage point adjustment pressure on year-on-year readings [4][37] - Leading indicators suggest a stable external demand environment, with the electronic supply chain likely to continue supporting growth [4][37] - The cumulative effects of monetary easing are expected to maintain a stable external demand environment, supporting strong resilience in electromechanical exports [4][38]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of AI technology on the employment market, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding its effects on job creation and job displacement, especially in light of the recent government shutdown that disrupted data reporting [2][4]. Group 1: New Employment Trends - Policymakers are focusing on the "dual effect" of AI, which may boost economic output while potentially suppressing employment. Fed Chair Powell noted that AI and automation allow companies to achieve more with fewer workers, leading to a weaker labor market [4][17]. - Research from various Federal Reserve branches indicates that the net impact of AI on the job market is currently limited, but the future remains uncertain. For instance, a survey by the New York Fed showed that businesses expect layoffs and hiring reductions due to AI [19]. - Academic studies have not reached a consensus on AI's impact on employment, with some confirming job displacement effects, particularly for low-skill jobs, while others suggest that AI could create new job opportunities [28]. Group 2: New Employment Indicators - Two key indicators for tracking new employment numbers are the ADP Employment Report and the Revelio Labs Employment Report. The ADP report shows a downward trend in job additions, with figures of 24,000, 3,000, and -4,000 for September, October, and November respectively [34]. - The Revelio Labs report also indicates a decline in job additions, with numbers of 38,000, -15,000, and -90,000 for the same months, reflecting a weakening hiring trend [40]. - Three indicators for tracking unemployment rates include the Challenger Job Cut Report, which shows an increase in announced layoffs, initial and continuing unemployment claims, and Google search trends related to unemployment, which have risen recently [43][45][49].

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 韩港（微信 HGK1366） 核心观点 本文聚焦各能级城市的社零表现。整体看仍是一线偏弱，二三线偏强。但一线内部，北京上海社零增速明 显背离，今年前 10 个月，北京社零同比仍为 -3.2% ，上海则升至 4.8% 。二者背离或与统计因素有关： 社零按"企业注册地"统计，若企业迁移，则对应社零也会跟随迁移。据北京统计局，近期北京企业设立跨区 域经营主体明显增加，此前计入北京的社零迁移至外地，进而拖累北京社零。但上海或在推动社零制度改 革，即从此前的"企业注册地"统计切换至"活动发生地"，在这一制度下，企业设立异地经营主体对上海社零 影响不大，这或是北京、上海社零分化的重要原因之一。当然，抛开统计因素回归基本面来看，上海市的 居民消费、企业消费确实在改善，社零读数回升有基本面支撑。 报告摘要 "不变"：仍是一线偏弱，二三线偏强 2024 年，我们曾分析为何一线社零偏弱、三四线社零偏强，参见报告《一线城市消费为何走弱？》、《三 四线城市消费为何偏强？》，目前来看，这一趋势仍在 ...

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人：夏雪（微信SuperSummerSnow） 核心观点 1 、美国经济： 1 ）景气向上的有 WEI 指数、消费、初请失业金人数、职位空缺数； 2 ）景气下行的有 ADP 新增就业、房贷申请数量、汽油零售价。 报告摘要 海外重要数据回顾及高频数据跟踪 （一）未来一周重要经济数据及事件 北京时间 12 月 11 日凌晨， FOMC 会议。 （二）过去一周重要数据回顾，详见图表 2 美国： 11 月 ADP 新增就业人数不及预期，挑战者企业裁员数降低； 9 月核心 PCE 物价指数不及预期， 12 月密歇根大学调查一年期通胀预期意外回落； 11 月 标普全球制造业 PMI 偏强（高于荣枯线）， ISM 制造业 PMI 意外回落。 （三）周度经济活动指数 美国经济活动指数中枢反弹 。 11 月 29 日当周，美国 WEI 指数 2.33 （四周移动平均为 2.2 ），上周为 2.18 （四周移动平均为 2.18 ）。 德国经济活动指数趋 势回升 。 11 月 30 日当周，德国 WAI 指数回升至 0.32 附近（ ...

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 报告摘要 景气向上 1 、外贸：港口集装箱吞吐量同比维持高位。 截至 11 月 30 日，我国港口集装箱吞吐量环比 -0.3% ，上周环比为 +5.4% ，四周同比微幅回落至 9.6% ，上周为 10% ， 10 月 26 日四周同比 为 6.6% 。 2 、耐用品消费：乘用车零售周度增速转正，但月度增速转负。 截至 11 月 30 日当周，乘用车零售 同比增速 +2% ，前值 -7% 。乘联分会发布初步统计数据， 11 月全国乘用车市场零售同比 -7% 。 10 月全月同比为 +5.8% 。 3 、地产：住宅销售降幅缩窄，二手房价格暂时止跌。 我们统计的 67 个城市， 12 月前 5 日，商品 房成交面积同比为 -26% 。 11 月同比为 -34% 。 10 月同比为 -26% 。 11 月 24 日当周，二手 房挂牌价，一线和全国均持平。今年以来，一线城市二手房挂牌价累计下跌 5.1% ，全国累计下跌 5.5% 。 4 、价格：国内外大宗品价格普涨，农产品价格普涨 ...