从销售净利率来看，A股部分行业存在费用控制与需求不足并存的现象 。多数行业销售毛利率下降反映出终端需求弱、价格传导不畅的问题，而销售净利率的回升 则得益于期间费用优化，尤其是财务费用和销售费用。从资产周转率和资产负债率来看，A股行业运营效率有所企稳，同时杠杆维持稳健。资产周转率过去一年整 体回落但Q3边际改善，与产能利用率的回升一致。 文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 李星宇（18810112501） 核心观点 我们聚焦2025Q3万得全A的盈利分析，通过杜邦分解和供需格局等视角，寻找上市公司盈利数据背后的宏观线索，以辅助宏观经济的跟踪与研判，可以发现：1） ROE的企稳主要靠销售净利率提升（费用控制）支撑，但销售毛利率持续承压，说明宏观需求偏弱的背景下企业更多依赖"节流"而非"开源"来稳定盈利；此外，从 资产周转率和资产负债率来看，上市公司运营效率有所改善，同时杠杆水平维持稳定。2）我们通过产能利用率与资本开支/折旧摊销来观察行业供需格局，观察到 17个行业中有10个行业处于产能利用率低且资本开支/折旧摊销低的状态，在宏观上意味着多数行 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state and future outlook of China's fiscal revenue and expenditure, emphasizing the importance of tax revenue growth and the government's fiscal policies in supporting economic stability and growth [4][7][12]. Group 1: Fiscal "Cross-Cycle" Support - The central economic work conference has reiterated the concept of "cross-cycle" fiscal policies, with the Ministry of Finance emphasizing the need to align with these directives for the upcoming year [7][8]. - The revenue side is identified as a crucial source of support for fiscal stability, with a shift in focus from increasing debt to maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and total debt levels [8][9]. - Tax revenue has shown a significant recovery this year, with the budget execution situation for broad fiscal revenue being the best since 2022, indicating a potential budget surplus for the first time in years [9][12]. Group 2: Future Revenue Support Logic - Three main factors are expected to support revenue growth in the coming year: the tax effects of a bull market, corporate responses to internal competition, and government measures to enhance actual tax rates [12][16][18]. - The bull market is projected to contribute approximately 310 billion yuan in incremental tax revenue, accounting for about 2% of the expected tax revenue for 2024 [12][16]. - The government's focus on standardizing tax incentives and subsidies is anticipated to raise actual tax rates, addressing the current low effective tax rates due to inter-governmental tax competition [18][22]. Group 3: November Fiscal Data Review - In November, fiscal revenue showed a year-on-year decline of 5.2%, while fiscal expenditure decreased by 1.7%, reflecting ongoing challenges in the fiscal landscape [2][40]. - Tax revenue continued to grow despite high base effects, with significant contributions from value-added tax and personal income tax, while non-tax revenue continued to decline [22][23]. - The government’s land sales revenue experienced a substantial drop of 26.8%, indicating volatility in this revenue source, which is critical for local governments [40][48].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the recognition of the Huachuang Macro team, led by Zhang Yu, as the second-best macro analyst team in the 2025 Securities Times New Wealth Awards, reflecting their consistent performance and dedication to macroeconomic research [1][3]. Group 1: Team Achievements - The Huachuang Macro team has achieved notable rankings over the years, being fifth in two years, third in three years, and second this year, showcasing their continuous improvement and commitment to excellence in macroeconomic analysis [3]. - The team scored 41,109.579 points, placing them second overall, just behind the first-place team from GF Securities, which scored 43,316.423 points [8]. Group 2: Team Composition - The team consists of experienced analysts, including Zhang Yu as the Vice Director and Chief Macro Analyst, along with other senior analysts such as Lu Yinbo, Wen Ruoyu, and Yin Wenqing, each specializing in various aspects of macroeconomic research [10][11]. - The analysts have diverse backgrounds, with expertise in macro policy, economic growth, financial rates, liquidity analysis, overseas macroeconomics, and global trade, contributing to a well-rounded research capability [11][12][13].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the shift from "extraordinary measures" to a more balanced approach in economic policy, focusing on both counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments to stabilize growth while transitioning to long-term reforms [3][4] - The economic work meeting indicates a more stable and slightly positive judgment on external conditions, suggesting that China has gained an advantage in trade disputes, with exports maintaining a growth rate of 5.4% over the past 11 months [4] - The pressure to prevent financial risks has significantly decreased, with the focus on risk prevention being moved to a lower priority in the agenda, indicating a shift in policy focus towards reform and opening up [4][5] Group 2 - Fiscal support is expected to remain stable with a slight decrease, aligning budget expenditure growth with economic growth targets, and maintaining a fiscal deficit rate around 4% for 2026 [5][7] - The policy focus has shifted from "insufficient domestic demand" to "strong supply and weak demand," indicating a dual approach to manage both supply and demand sides, with an emphasis on price stability [8] - The judgment on economic conditions for 2026 suggests a decline in M2 growth due to various factors, making it more challenging to boost valuations in the capital market [9][10] Group 3 - The investment strategy remains bullish on stocks while being cautious on bonds, driven by improving supply-demand balance and lower market volatility, indicating a preference for equities over fixed income [11]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of major economic provinces in supporting national economic growth, specifically mentioning Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shandong, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Hunan, and Beijing as key players for 2024 and 2025 [3][12] - The central economic work conference has highlighted the need for provinces to set reasonable economic development goals for the upcoming year, with variations in wording indicating a shift towards more tailored approaches [4][14] - The construction of a unified national market is a priority, with plans to develop guidelines in 2024 and regulations in 2025, focusing on reducing "involution" competition [5][17] Group 2 - There is a strong emphasis on differentiated work arrangements among provinces, including the establishment of international technology innovation centers in Beijing and Shanghai, aimed at fostering original innovation [6][19] - The article discusses the push for market-oriented reforms in resource allocation, with specific pilot projects in Guangdong and Henan [21] - The development of the marine economy is highlighted, with Shandong aiming to create a modern marine economic development hub by 2025 [22] - Urban renewal initiatives are being prioritized, with Guangdong focusing on implementing high-quality development projects in rural areas [23] - The article notes the importance of expanding openness in service sectors, with Shanghai enhancing its role in cross-border finance and global supply chain management [24]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the improvement of supply-demand contradictions in the midstream sector, indicating a potential shift from "strong supply and weak demand" to "weak supply and strong demand" in the coming years [2][3]. Group 1: Midstream Supply-Demand Analysis - The analysis method involves measuring the difference between demand growth and investment growth, where a positive difference indicates alleviation of supply-demand contradictions [2][5]. - Key indicators include upstream demand from material exports and construction investment, midstream demand from machinery exports and equipment investment, and downstream demand from labor-intensive product exports [5][12]. - In November, the midstream demand growth was 8.9%, slightly down from 10.3% in September, while midstream investment growth was 1.3%, down from 4.2% in September, leading to a demand-investment growth difference of 7.6% [6][13]. Group 2: Future Projections - Historical data suggests that the midstream demand-investment growth difference is likely to remain positive, with expectations for the midstream PPI (Producer Price Index) to stop declining and potentially rise by 2026 [3][14]. - The midstream PPI showed a month-on-month increase of 0.04% in November, marking the first positive change since June 2024, indicating a potential upward trend in midstream ROE (Return on Equity) [7][14]. Group 3: November Economic Data Overview - In November, industrial production growth was 4.8%, while service sector production index growth was 4.2%, indicating a slight weakening in supply-side performance [19]. - Consumer retail sales growth was 1.3%, down from 2.9% in October, while exports rebounded to a growth of 5.9% from a decline of 1.1% [19][21]. - Real estate sales area decreased by 17.3% year-on-year, and fixed asset investment saw a decline of 12.0% in November [19][22]. Group 4: Employment and Price Trends - The urban unemployment rate remained stable at 5.1%, with a slight decrease in the unemployment rate for migrant agricultural workers to 4.4% [23]. - The CPI (Consumer Price Index) rose to 0.7% year-on-year, while the PPI fell by 2.2%, indicating ongoing deflationary pressures in the economy [21][22].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of maintaining a proactive fiscal policy and an appropriately loose monetary policy to support economic stability and growth in China, while addressing structural issues and enhancing investment opportunities in various sectors [2][8][13]. Fiscal Policy - The Central Financial Office highlighted the need to maintain necessary fiscal deficits, total debt scale, and expenditure levels to ensure fiscal sustainability while optimizing expenditure structure to support major national strategies [2][13]. - There is a focus on enhancing local government financial autonomy and ensuring basic livelihood protections, with a call for more investment in infrastructure, which currently stands at only 20%-30% of that in developed countries [3][13]. Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China emphasized the optimization of structural monetary policy tools and the need for coordination with fiscal policy to prevent financial market risks [2][12]. - The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, utilizing various tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate adjustments to support economic growth [8][12]. Investment Opportunities - There is significant investment potential in urbanization, technological innovation, and industrial upgrades, with a call to leverage new policy financial tools for key projects under the 14th Five-Year Plan [3][13]. - The government aims to stabilize investment and consumption through various measures, including optimizing the use of local government special bonds and enhancing the effectiveness of government investment [12][13]. "Anti-Involution" Measures - Multiple government departments are addressing "involution" in competition, with initiatives to regulate market order and enhance industry governance [3][12]. - The focus is on comprehensive rectification of "involution" competition and fostering new development momentum through improved capacity governance and infrastructure regulation [3][12].

Key Points - The article discusses recent economic data and trends in the US, Japan, and the Eurozone, highlighting significant changes in unemployment claims, trade deficits, and GDP growth [2][4][15][16][17]. Group 1: Important Data Review - The number of initial unemployment claims in the US rose significantly to 236,000, exceeding expectations of 220,000, while the previous week's figure was 192,000 [15]. - The US trade deficit narrowed to $52.8 billion in September, the smallest since mid-2020, with exports increasing by 3.0% and imports rising by 0.6% [15]. - Japan's GDP for Q3 was revised down, showing a contraction of 0.6% quarter-on-quarter, compared to an expected decline of 0.5% [16]. Group 2: Economic Activity Index - The US WEI index increased to 2.37% from 2.07% the previous week, indicating a rebound in economic activity [5][20]. - The German WAI index also rose to 0.19% from 0.18%, suggesting a similar trend in Germany [5][20]. Group 3: Demand - US retail sales growth slowed, with the Redbook commercial retail index dropping to 5.7% year-on-year from 7.6% the previous week [6][25]. - Mortgage rates in the US increased slightly to 6.22%, while mortgage applications rose, with the MBA market composite index climbing to 327.9, up 4.8% week-on-week [6][28]. Group 4: Prices - Commodity prices fell, with the RJ/CRB commodity price index decreasing by 2.5% week-on-week [7][46]. - The average retail price of gasoline in the US dropped to $2.82 per gallon, down 1.2% from the previous week [7][46]. Group 5: Employment - The ADP weekly employment change showed an increase, with a total of 19,000 new jobs added over the past four weeks, compared to a loss of 54,000 jobs the previous week [8][33]. - Initial unemployment claims rose to 236,000, while continuing claims fell to 1.838 million from 1.937 million the previous week [8][37]. - The INDEED job vacancy index remained stable at a weekly average of 104.6, indicating low fluctuations in job openings [9][41]. Group 6: Financial Conditions - Financial conditions in the US and Eurozone tightened, with the Bloomberg financial conditions index for the US dropping to 0.716 from 0.732 [10][49]. - Offshore dollar liquidity worsened, with the basis for the yen against the dollar widening to -32.8480 basis points [10][53]. - The 10-year bond yield spread between the US and Eurozone narrowed, while the spread between the US and Japan widened [10][56].

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 报告摘要 景气向上 1、外贸：港口集装箱吞吐量同比维持高位 。截至12月7日，我国港口集装箱吞吐量环比-1.8%，上 周环比为-0.3%，四周同比9.5%，上周为9.6%。 2、价格：铜价、金价上涨 。COMEX黄金收于4302.7美金/盎司，上涨2.5%；LME三个月铜价收于 11795美元/吨，上涨1.5%。 景气向下 利率： 期限利差加大 。截至12月12日，1年期、5年期、10年期国债收益率分别报1.3879%、 1.6279%、1.8396%，较12月5日环比分别变化-1.37bps、-0.43bps、-0.84bps。 风险提示： 高频数据更新不及时。 报告目录 | 每周经济观察 | | --- | | (一)华创宏观 WEI 指数有所回落 | | (二)资产:股债夏普比率差仍在高位 | | (三)需求:乘用车零售增速明显回落 : | | (四)生产:基建高频仍偏弱 . | | (五)贸易:出口集装箱吞吐量维持高位 | | (六)物价:海外油价和国内地产相关价 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the frameworks for analyzing the ten-year government bond yield, emphasizing its relationship with nominal GDP growth, dividend yield, supply-demand dynamics, and monetary policy [2][3][4]. Group 1: International Experience Framework - The ten-year government bond yield represents the risk-free rate of a country and should correspond to its economic growth and investment returns [2]. - Before unconventional monetary policies are implemented, a nominal GDP growth of 4%-5% typically corresponds to a ten-year bond yield of 2%-5% [2][22]. - Currently, China's nominal GDP growth is approximately 4.2%, while the ten-year bond yield is around 1.85% [7][22]. Group 2: Supply-Demand Perspective - The "scissors difference" between corporate and household deposits indicates strong demand for funds in the real economy, leading to upward pressure on bond yields [10][11]. - Over the past year, this scissors difference has increased by 9%, suggesting a higher probability of rising ten-year bond yields in the coming year [11][30]. - The non-bank investment gap has been trending upward since October 2024, indicating a higher risk appetite among financial institutions [13][34]. Group 3: Policy Perspective - The ten-year bond yield has declined more than the policy rate in recent years, with a difference of 12 basis points in 2022, 38 basis points in 2023, and 30 basis points in 2024 [3][37]. - Given the current strong equity market and the central bank's focus on preventing fund idling, the downward space for the ten-year bond yield is relatively limited [3][39]. - The expectation for unconventional monetary policy in 2025 has cooled, suggesting that the ten-year bond yield may gradually return to a normal range [4][39].