Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the improvement in inflation data for November, highlighting the trends in CPI and PPI, and outlines key macroeconomic price clues for the upcoming year [2][4][9]. Group 1: November Inflation Data - CPI year-on-year increased from 0.2% to 0.7%, meeting expectations, while core CPI remained stable at 1.2%, maintaining a high level since 2022 [2][9]. - PPI year-on-year decreased from -2.1% to -2.2%, with expectations of -2%, indicating a continued decline influenced by high base effects [2][9]. - The GDP deflator for November is estimated at around -0.4%, slightly better than the previous month's estimate of -0.5% [2][9]. Group 2: Key Factors Influencing CPI - The significant rise in CPI is primarily driven by food prices, which increased by 0.5% month-on-month, contrasting with a decline of -2.7% in the same month last year [2][9]. - Seasonal factors have positively impacted fresh vegetable prices, which rose by 7.2% due to adverse weather conditions affecting production and transportation [2][9]. - Core CPI's stability is attributed to the continuous rise in medical service prices, which have increased for eight consecutive months, and the impact of rising gold prices [2][9]. Group 3: PPI Trends - PPI increased by 0.1% month-on-month for two consecutive months, driven by seasonal demand in coal and gas industries [3][30]. - The input factors have led to a decline in domestic oil-related industry prices while prices in the non-ferrous sector have risen [3][30]. - The equipment manufacturing sector shows signs of marginal improvement, with computer and communication electronics prices rising by 0.1% [3][30]. Group 4: Macroeconomic Price Clues for Next Year - CPI is expected to show a confirmed upward trend next year, with projections indicating a year-on-year increase of approximately 0.7% [4][10]. - PPI is also anticipated to recover, although the timing for a positive shift remains uncertain, with a projected year-on-year average of -1.4% [4][10]. - The improvement in the supply-demand relationship in the midstream equipment manufacturing sector is crucial for stabilizing PPI [4][15]. Group 5: Potential Risks and Opportunities - The potential upward risk for CPI includes improvements in service sector price increases, particularly if consumer subsidy policies expand to service consumption [5][12]. - The midstream equipment manufacturing sector's supply-demand dynamics are critical, as historical patterns suggest a lag of 6-7 quarters before PPI prices stabilize after supply growth falls below demand growth [4][15].

Core Viewpoint - In November, China's exports in USD terms increased by 5.9% year-on-year, exceeding expectations of 3.8% and rebounding from a previous decline of -1.1% [2][46] Group 1: Export Strength in Midstream - The export growth rate rebounded significantly in November, with a 7 percentage point increase compared to the previous month, influenced by base effects and resilient demand [4][13] - The manufacturing PMI new export orders showed a substantial recovery across all industries, indicating improved export demand [4][14] - The overall growth momentum has marginally recovered to seasonal averages, with a three-month moving average of 1.1% in November, slightly below the historical average of 1.4% [4][14] Group 2: Category Analysis - Exports are strong in electromechanical products, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 7.9% from January to November, contributing 87% to the overall export growth [8][20] - The "three main electromechanical products" (cars, ships, integrated circuits) have seen export growth rates exceeding 15% [8][21] - Labor-intensive products, in contrast, showed a cumulative year-on-year decline of -4.3% from January to November, negatively impacting overall export growth [8][20] Group 3: Regional Analysis - Exports to emerging markets are strong, while exports to the US are weak, with a year-on-year decline of -28.8% in November [29][56] - The share of exports to the US has decreased by 3.4 percentage points to 11.3%, while ASEAN's share increased by 1.1 percentage points to 17.5% [30][63] - If US import demand stabilizes, China's exports to the US may rebound significantly due to low base effects [30][31] Group 4: Future Export Resilience - In December, the elevated base may lead to a 2-3 percentage point adjustment pressure on year-on-year readings [4][37] - Leading indicators suggest a stable external demand environment, with the electronic supply chain likely to continue supporting growth [4][37] - The cumulative effects of monetary easing are expected to maintain a stable external demand environment, supporting strong resilience in electromechanical exports [4][38]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of AI technology on the employment market, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding its effects on job creation and job displacement, especially in light of the recent government shutdown that disrupted data reporting [2][4]. Group 1: New Employment Trends - Policymakers are focusing on the "dual effect" of AI, which may boost economic output while potentially suppressing employment. Fed Chair Powell noted that AI and automation allow companies to achieve more with fewer workers, leading to a weaker labor market [4][17]. - Research from various Federal Reserve branches indicates that the net impact of AI on the job market is currently limited, but the future remains uncertain. For instance, a survey by the New York Fed showed that businesses expect layoffs and hiring reductions due to AI [19]. - Academic studies have not reached a consensus on AI's impact on employment, with some confirming job displacement effects, particularly for low-skill jobs, while others suggest that AI could create new job opportunities [28]. Group 2: New Employment Indicators - Two key indicators for tracking new employment numbers are the ADP Employment Report and the Revelio Labs Employment Report. The ADP report shows a downward trend in job additions, with figures of 24,000, 3,000, and -4,000 for September, October, and November respectively [34]. - The Revelio Labs report also indicates a decline in job additions, with numbers of 38,000, -15,000, and -90,000 for the same months, reflecting a weakening hiring trend [40]. - Three indicators for tracking unemployment rates include the Challenger Job Cut Report, which shows an increase in announced layoffs, initial and continuing unemployment claims, and Google search trends related to unemployment, which have risen recently [43][45][49].

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人：夏雪（微信SuperSummerSnow） 核心观点 1 、美国经济： 1 ）景气向上的有 WEI 指数、消费、初请失业金人数、职位空缺数； 2 ）景气下行的有 ADP 新增就业、房贷申请数量、汽油零售价。 报告摘要 海外重要数据回顾及高频数据跟踪 （一）未来一周重要经济数据及事件 北京时间 12 月 11 日凌晨， FOMC 会议。 （二）过去一周重要数据回顾，详见图表 2 美国： 11 月 ADP 新增就业人数不及预期，挑战者企业裁员数降低； 9 月核心 PCE 物价指数不及预期， 12 月密歇根大学调查一年期通胀预期意外回落； 11 月 标普全球制造业 PMI 偏强（高于荣枯线）， ISM 制造业 PMI 意外回落。 （三）周度经济活动指数 美国经济活动指数中枢反弹 。 11 月 29 日当周，美国 WEI 指数 2.33 （四周移动平均为 2.2 ），上周为 2.18 （四周移动平均为 2.18 ）。 德国经济活动指数趋 势回升 。 11 月 30 日当周，德国 WAI 指数回升至 0.32 附近（ ...

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 韩港（微信 HGK1366） 核心观点 本文聚焦各能级城市的社零表现。整体看仍是一线偏弱，二三线偏强。但一线内部，北京上海社零增速明 显背离，今年前 10 个月，北京社零同比仍为 -3.2% ，上海则升至 4.8% 。二者背离或与统计因素有关： 社零按"企业注册地"统计，若企业迁移，则对应社零也会跟随迁移。据北京统计局，近期北京企业设立跨区 域经营主体明显增加，此前计入北京的社零迁移至外地，进而拖累北京社零。但上海或在推动社零制度改 革，即从此前的"企业注册地"统计切换至"活动发生地"，在这一制度下，企业设立异地经营主体对上海社零 影响不大，这或是北京、上海社零分化的重要原因之一。当然，抛开统计因素回归基本面来看，上海市的 居民消费、企业消费确实在改善，社零读数回升有基本面支撑。 报告摘要 "不变"：仍是一线偏弱，二三线偏强 2024 年，我们曾分析为何一线社零偏弱、三四线社零偏强，参见报告《一线城市消费为何走弱？》、《三 四线城市消费为何偏强？》，目前来看，这一趋势仍在 ...

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 报告摘要 景气向上 1 、外贸：港口集装箱吞吐量同比维持高位。 截至 11 月 30 日，我国港口集装箱吞吐量环比 -0.3% ，上周环比为 +5.4% ，四周同比微幅回落至 9.6% ，上周为 10% ， 10 月 26 日四周同比 为 6.6% 。 2 、耐用品消费：乘用车零售周度增速转正，但月度增速转负。 截至 11 月 30 日当周，乘用车零售 同比增速 +2% ，前值 -7% 。乘联分会发布初步统计数据， 11 月全国乘用车市场零售同比 -7% 。 10 月全月同比为 +5.8% 。 3 、地产：住宅销售降幅缩窄，二手房价格暂时止跌。 我们统计的 67 个城市， 12 月前 5 日，商品 房成交面积同比为 -26% 。 11 月同比为 -34% 。 10 月同比为 -26% 。 11 月 24 日当周，二手 房挂牌价，一线和全国均持平。今年以来，一线城市二手房挂牌价累计下跌 5.1% ，全国累计下跌 5.5% 。 4 、价格：国内外大宗品价格普涨，农产品价格普涨 ...

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 报告正文 一、 篇幅"短"——篇幅非常短，往往意味着经济工作会议大概率几天内召开 核心内容篇幅极短： 本次政治局会议通稿与经济相关的核心内容仅 934 字，接近历史最低水平（ 2024 年为 924 字）。 会议召开的时间预判 ：根据以往经验，政治局会议先开定调，经济工作会议后开部署。通稿篇幅越短，通常意味着经 济工作会议有可能将在 2-4 天内召开。 政策细节披露时间 ：预计更多政策细节将在几天后的经济工作会议通稿中公布（篇幅通常为 4000-5000 字）。 信息解读建议： 政治局通稿信息颗粒度较粗，属于定调性质，不宜过度解读。 二、 "优化供给"——反内卷进入"弱化提法，强化做法"的务实阶段 （一）政策提法变化： 本次通稿强调"持续扩大内需、优化供给，做优增量、盘活存量，因地制宜发展新质生产力， 纵深推进全国统一大市场建设"。 （二）反内卷进入务实阶段： "优化供给"是大方向，核心之一是"反内卷"。 当前"反内卷"已从强化提法转向强化做法，进入务实阶段。 （三）具体举措： 1 、 统一大市场建设 。 2 、 ...

Core Viewpoints - The article presents a dual perspective on the investment landscape for 2026, focusing on both financial conditions ("who holds the deposits") and economic realities ("spring water flows to the midstream") [3][4][5][6] - The year 2026 is anticipated to be a pivotal year for awakening the investment value of the Chinese stock market, breaking the stereotype of short-lived bull markets [6][8] Economic and Policy Outlook for 2026 - The nominal GDP growth rate for 2026 is projected to be around 4.5%, slightly higher than the estimated 4% for 2025 [15] - Fixed asset investment is expected to remain low, between 0% and 1%, with a neutral expectation of around 1% [16] - Consumption is anticipated to align with nominal GDP growth, while exports are expected to show resilience with a growth rate of around 5% [16][18] - The fiscal budget expenditure growth rate is likely to be set at around 5%, with an increase in government debt expected [17][18] Price Trends for 2026 - CPI year-on-year growth is expected to turn positive, but its investment significance may be limited [19][20] - PPI year-on-year growth is anticipated to show an upward trend, with the potential for a positive turnaround depending on economic conditions in the first half of 2026 [21][22] - Housing prices remain uncertain, with a focus on the relationship between mortgage rates and rental yields as a potential indicator for price stabilization [23][24][27] Midstream Economic Outlook - The midstream sector is expected to outperform in the next 3-6 months, with notable changes in profit margins for midstream companies, particularly in overseas markets [30][34] - The supply-demand dynamics in the midstream sector are shifting, with policies aimed at reducing internal competition benefiting this segment [35][36] - The midstream sector is seen as having strong potential due to its differentiation from upstream and downstream sectors, which are currently facing challenges [39][40] Financial Conditions and Deposit Distribution - The distribution of deposits will significantly influence market valuations and investment styles in 2026 [47][48] - M2 growth is expected to decline, impacting stock market valuations and the relative performance of different market segments [48][49] - The transfer of deposits from residents to enterprises or non-bank financial institutions will be crucial for driving economic activity and stock market engagement [52][53][60] Investment Insights and Conclusions - The article emphasizes a cautious yet optimistic outlook for the stock market, with a focus on safety margins and profit improvements [50][51] - The potential for a bull market in stocks is acknowledged, but the pace of growth may slow compared to previous years [87] - The article suggests that the investment landscape will require careful monitoring of economic indicators and policy developments to identify key turning points [51][88]

Group 1 - The article discusses the current economic landscape, highlighting a "policy intensive period" followed by a "data vacuum period" in the upcoming months [2][3] - The first phase involves a series of important policy meetings starting in December, including the Political Bureau meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference, which will accelerate policy implementation [2] - The second phase will see a lack of key economic data, leading to increased market activity but uncertainty about the economic outlook [3] Group 2 - The article identifies three major macroeconomic divergences: the divergence between export price index and domestic PPI, the contrasting performance of exports and real estate, and the stock market's reliance on valuation rather than earnings growth [4] - The core judgment is that the most certain economic recovery is likely to occur in the midstream manufacturing sector over the next 3-6 months, supported by four key changes in this sector [5] Group 3 - The four changes in midstream manufacturing include: a recovery in ROE for midstream manufacturers, overseas gross margins surpassing domestic margins, a significant proportion of overseas gross margins in midstream manufacturing, and the ongoing technological wave benefiting certain sectors [5][11] - The stability of midstream manufacturing is supported by two main factors: the stability of export demand and the robust performance of key product categories such as high-tech machinery and electronics [11][12] - The article concludes that the current cycle is unique, with midstream manufacturing potentially benefiting from overseas markets, leading to an independent recovery in profits and prices [12]

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 核心观点 展望 11 月，基数及政策前倾影响下，预计社融与 M2 增速回落，固投、地产同比或依然偏低，社零受补贴 类商品增速回落影响或依然偏弱。相对而言，预计出口与生产韧性较强。需要特别提示的是， CPI 或继续 上行，这或将营造良好的物价回升的氛围。 预计 CPI 同比从 0.2% 回升至 0.7% 左右。首先 ，本月 CPI 同比读数大幅回升，主因是食品价格扰动。去 年 11 月食品项环比为 -2.7% ，是过去十年最低；今年 11 月环比预计为 1.1% 。 其次，食品价格的波动 主要源于天气影响下的菜价 ，今年 10 月中下旬以后气温偏低、秋雨增多，局部地区遭受低温冷冻灾害或 暴雨洪涝灾害，导致部分蔬菜市场供应偏紧。这一情况并不具备持续性，据国家气候中心预测，今年冬季 我国大部地区气温接近常年同期到偏高，天气条件总体上有利于蔬菜生长和运输。 最后，最近两个月食品 价格偏高有利于提升明年 CPI 同比中枢。 今年 10-11 月份食品环比强于季节性，叠加今年二三季度 ...