Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of major economic provinces in supporting national economic growth, specifically mentioning Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shandong, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Hunan, and Beijing as key players for 2024 and 2025 [3][12] - The central economic work conference has highlighted the need for provinces to set reasonable economic development goals for the upcoming year, with variations in wording indicating a shift towards more tailored approaches [4][14] - The construction of a unified national market is a priority, with plans to develop guidelines in 2024 and regulations in 2025, focusing on reducing "involution" competition [5][17] Group 2 - There is a strong emphasis on differentiated work arrangements among provinces, including the establishment of international technology innovation centers in Beijing and Shanghai, aimed at fostering original innovation [6][19] - The article discusses the push for market-oriented reforms in resource allocation, with specific pilot projects in Guangdong and Henan [21] - The development of the marine economy is highlighted, with Shandong aiming to create a modern marine economic development hub by 2025 [22] - Urban renewal initiatives are being prioritized, with Guangdong focusing on implementing high-quality development projects in rural areas [23] - The article notes the importance of expanding openness in service sectors, with Shanghai enhancing its role in cross-border finance and global supply chain management [24]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the improvement of supply-demand contradictions in the midstream sector, indicating a potential shift from "strong supply and weak demand" to "weak supply and strong demand" in the coming years [2][3]. Group 1: Midstream Supply-Demand Analysis - The analysis method involves measuring the difference between demand growth and investment growth, where a positive difference indicates alleviation of supply-demand contradictions [2][5]. - Key indicators include upstream demand from material exports and construction investment, midstream demand from machinery exports and equipment investment, and downstream demand from labor-intensive product exports [5][12]. - In November, the midstream demand growth was 8.9%, slightly down from 10.3% in September, while midstream investment growth was 1.3%, down from 4.2% in September, leading to a demand-investment growth difference of 7.6% [6][13]. Group 2: Future Projections - Historical data suggests that the midstream demand-investment growth difference is likely to remain positive, with expectations for the midstream PPI (Producer Price Index) to stop declining and potentially rise by 2026 [3][14]. - The midstream PPI showed a month-on-month increase of 0.04% in November, marking the first positive change since June 2024, indicating a potential upward trend in midstream ROE (Return on Equity) [7][14]. Group 3: November Economic Data Overview - In November, industrial production growth was 4.8%, while service sector production index growth was 4.2%, indicating a slight weakening in supply-side performance [19]. - Consumer retail sales growth was 1.3%, down from 2.9% in October, while exports rebounded to a growth of 5.9% from a decline of 1.1% [19][21]. - Real estate sales area decreased by 17.3% year-on-year, and fixed asset investment saw a decline of 12.0% in November [19][22]. Group 4: Employment and Price Trends - The urban unemployment rate remained stable at 5.1%, with a slight decrease in the unemployment rate for migrant agricultural workers to 4.4% [23]. - The CPI (Consumer Price Index) rose to 0.7% year-on-year, while the PPI fell by 2.2%, indicating ongoing deflationary pressures in the economy [21][22].

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 袁玲玲（微信 Yuen43） 报告摘要 近一周，主要关注中央政治局会议及中央经济工作会议，详见点评 《等待进一步信息——政治局会议 极简学习》 《摆脱"超常规"——六句话学习中央经济工作会议》 。会议结束后，国务院各部委等相 关方就会议作出解读或学习，要点如下： 1、财政政策： 12月13日，中央财办分管日常工作的副主任、中央农办主任韩文秀在中国经济年会上 发言，"保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量，既着眼当前， 用好用足政策空间，也为应对 未来风险留有余地，确保财政可持续 "；"要优化支出结构，强化国家重大战略的财力保障，推动更多 资金资源投资于人"。 2、货币金融政策 ：12月12日，央行学习会议中提到，"优化结构性货币政策工具运用，加强与财政 政策的协同"，"综合平衡防范金融市场的道德风险 ，建立在特定情景下向非银金融机构提供流动性的 机制性安排"。 3、投资 ：12月13日，中央财办分管日常工作的副主任、中央农办主任韩文秀在中国经济年会上发 言，"中国的城镇化、科技创新、产业升级、民生改善等 ...

Key Points - The article discusses recent economic data and trends in the US, Japan, and the Eurozone, highlighting significant changes in unemployment claims, trade deficits, and GDP growth [2][4][15][16][17]. Group 1: Important Data Review - The number of initial unemployment claims in the US rose significantly to 236,000, exceeding expectations of 220,000, while the previous week's figure was 192,000 [15]. - The US trade deficit narrowed to $52.8 billion in September, the smallest since mid-2020, with exports increasing by 3.0% and imports rising by 0.6% [15]. - Japan's GDP for Q3 was revised down, showing a contraction of 0.6% quarter-on-quarter, compared to an expected decline of 0.5% [16]. Group 2: Economic Activity Index - The US WEI index increased to 2.37% from 2.07% the previous week, indicating a rebound in economic activity [5][20]. - The German WAI index also rose to 0.19% from 0.18%, suggesting a similar trend in Germany [5][20]. Group 3: Demand - US retail sales growth slowed, with the Redbook commercial retail index dropping to 5.7% year-on-year from 7.6% the previous week [6][25]. - Mortgage rates in the US increased slightly to 6.22%, while mortgage applications rose, with the MBA market composite index climbing to 327.9, up 4.8% week-on-week [6][28]. Group 4: Prices - Commodity prices fell, with the RJ/CRB commodity price index decreasing by 2.5% week-on-week [7][46]. - The average retail price of gasoline in the US dropped to $2.82 per gallon, down 1.2% from the previous week [7][46]. Group 5: Employment - The ADP weekly employment change showed an increase, with a total of 19,000 new jobs added over the past four weeks, compared to a loss of 54,000 jobs the previous week [8][33]. - Initial unemployment claims rose to 236,000, while continuing claims fell to 1.838 million from 1.937 million the previous week [8][37]. - The INDEED job vacancy index remained stable at a weekly average of 104.6, indicating low fluctuations in job openings [9][41]. Group 6: Financial Conditions - Financial conditions in the US and Eurozone tightened, with the Bloomberg financial conditions index for the US dropping to 0.716 from 0.732 [10][49]. - Offshore dollar liquidity worsened, with the basis for the yen against the dollar widening to -32.8480 basis points [10][53]. - The 10-year bond yield spread between the US and Eurozone narrowed, while the spread between the US and Japan widened [10][56].

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 报告摘要 景气向上 1、外贸：港口集装箱吞吐量同比维持高位 。截至12月7日，我国港口集装箱吞吐量环比-1.8%，上 周环比为-0.3%，四周同比9.5%，上周为9.6%。 2、价格：铜价、金价上涨 。COMEX黄金收于4302.7美金/盎司，上涨2.5%；LME三个月铜价收于 11795美元/吨，上涨1.5%。 景气向下 利率： 期限利差加大 。截至12月12日，1年期、5年期、10年期国债收益率分别报1.3879%、 1.6279%、1.8396%，较12月5日环比分别变化-1.37bps、-0.43bps、-0.84bps。 风险提示： 高频数据更新不及时。 报告目录 | 每周经济观察 | | --- | | (一)华创宏观 WEI 指数有所回落 | | (二)资产:股债夏普比率差仍在高位 | | (三)需求:乘用车零售增速明显回落 : | | (四)生产:基建高频仍偏弱 . | | (五)贸易:出口集装箱吞吐量维持高位 | | (六)物价:海外油价和国内地产相关价 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the frameworks for analyzing the ten-year government bond yield, emphasizing its relationship with nominal GDP growth, dividend yield, supply-demand dynamics, and monetary policy [2][3][4]. Group 1: International Experience Framework - The ten-year government bond yield represents the risk-free rate of a country and should correspond to its economic growth and investment returns [2]. - Before unconventional monetary policies are implemented, a nominal GDP growth of 4%-5% typically corresponds to a ten-year bond yield of 2%-5% [2][22]. - Currently, China's nominal GDP growth is approximately 4.2%, while the ten-year bond yield is around 1.85% [7][22]. Group 2: Supply-Demand Perspective - The "scissors difference" between corporate and household deposits indicates strong demand for funds in the real economy, leading to upward pressure on bond yields [10][11]. - Over the past year, this scissors difference has increased by 9%, suggesting a higher probability of rising ten-year bond yields in the coming year [11][30]. - The non-bank investment gap has been trending upward since October 2024, indicating a higher risk appetite among financial institutions [13][34]. Group 3: Policy Perspective - The ten-year bond yield has declined more than the policy rate in recent years, with a difference of 12 basis points in 2022, 38 basis points in 2023, and 30 basis points in 2024 [3][37]. - Given the current strong equity market and the central bank's focus on preventing fund idling, the downward space for the ten-year bond yield is relatively limited [3][39]. - The expectation for unconventional monetary policy in 2025 has cooled, suggesting that the ten-year bond yield may gradually return to a normal range [4][39].

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 文若愚（微信 LRsuperdope） 事项 2025年11月，社融存量同比8.5%（前值8.5%），M2同比8%（前值8.2%），新口径M1同比4.9%（前值 6.2%）。 核心观点 1、11月我们研判利润的先行指标企业居民存款剪刀差改善趋势延续，但速率较1月~8月明显放缓。此外， 我们研判权益成交量的非银居民存款剪刀差11月则相对偏弱，对应金融市场的流动性改善似乎出现了波 折。 2、展望未来，影响企业和非银流动性的有两个因素，一是总量M2的增长规模，由于当下实体经济的有效 融资需求客观偏弱，我们预计后续M2同比仍将持续下行。二是居民存款的搬家规模，我们认为居民存款搬 家的趋势依旧，但由于金融流动性的波折以及十月以来上证综指下行波动率的提升，2026年居民存款搬家 的速率可能边际放缓。 3、对于权益资产而言，总量M2的回落和居民存款搬家速率的放缓会带来两个影响，一是2026年估值提升 逻辑可能会弱化，二是创业板跑赢沪深300这个风格特征2026年或也弱化，2026年股市或应更重视安全边 际与盈利改善，更 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced the initiation of the Reserve Management Purchases (RMP) tool starting December 12, with a plan to purchase $40 billion of short-term Treasury securities in the first month, maintaining a high level of purchases in subsequent months. This RMP is expected to inject approximately $150 billion in reserves into the market, lasting until Q2 2026, primarily focusing on ultra-short-term Treasury securities [2][5][25]. Group 1: Actions by the Federal Reserve - The RMP is a significant highlight of the December FOMC meeting, aimed at maintaining adequate reserve levels and addressing seasonal fluctuations in the Treasury General Account (TGA) [5][6]. - The RMP will primarily purchase short-term Treasury securities, with 75% of purchases targeting securities with maturities of 1-4 months [25][26]. - The RMP is expected to last at least until Q2 2026, with a target reserve balance of around $3 trillion, requiring an injection of approximately $150 billion in reserves [6][28]. Group 2: Economic Implications of RMP - The RMP is expected to improve short-term liquidity, benefiting the stock market by facilitating "loose trading" conditions. However, it is not equivalent to quantitative easing (QE) and may have limited effects on long-term interest rates and financing costs for the real economy [7][35]. - The RMP's operational scale is designed to counteract seasonal liquidity pressures, particularly during tax payment periods, which can tighten market liquidity [6][29]. Group 3: Current Liquidity Conditions - The current reserve levels are slightly below the reasonable range, with the reserve balance to nominal GDP ratio at 9.5% and the reserve balance to total bank assets ratio at 11.8% [8][45]. - Maintaining adequate reserve levels is crucial for the effective implementation of the Federal Reserve's "floor system" monetary policy framework, which relies on sufficient reserves to control market interest rates [9][51]. - The liquidity conditions are tighter than desired, but the situation is better than during the previous QT phase, reducing the risk of a liquidity crisis [41][60].

Group 1 - The external environment is showing signs of improvement, with exports maintaining a growth rate of 5.4% from January to November, indicating resilience in external demand [2] - The government is shifting from extraordinary to more conventional counter-cyclical policies, emphasizing the effectiveness of existing policies rather than relying on new stimulus measures [3] - Risk management pressures have eased, with significant risks in real estate and hidden debts being largely controlled, allowing the government to focus on other areas such as reform and opening up [4] Group 2 - Fiscal support may see a reduction, with projected budget growth rates for 2023-2025 at 3.3%, 5.1%, and 5.1%, aligning closely with economic targets [6] - The fiscal deficit is expected to remain around 4% in 2026, indicating a stabilization rather than an increase in deficit levels [7] - The economy is transitioning from a state of insufficient demand to a situation characterized by strong supply but weak demand, with a focus on resolving these issues through supply-side measures [8] Group 3 - The midstream manufacturing sector is expected to remain the most stable and promising area, benefiting from resilient external demand and domestic supply constraints [10]

Core Viewpoint - The December FOMC meeting resulted in a 25 basis point rate cut to a target range of 3.5%-3.75%, aligning with market expectations, while the Fed's tone remained neutral to slightly hawkish [2][20] Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - The Fed's decision to cut rates by 25 basis points was anticipated, with 3 out of 12 FOMC members opposing the cut, indicating internal dissent [20] - The dot plot indicates only one rate cut is expected next year, which is below market pricing of two cuts [3][12] - The Fed's economic outlook is described as "Goldilocks," with upward revisions to GDP growth forecasts for 2025-2028 and downward revisions to inflation forecasts for the same period [6][21] Group 2: Economic Projections - GDP growth forecasts for Q4 of 2025, 2026, 2027, and 2028 are now projected at 1.7%, 2.3%, 2.0%, and 1.9% respectively, compared to previous estimates of 1.6%, 1.8%, 1.9%, and 1.8% [21] - Core PCE inflation forecasts for the same periods are adjusted to 3.0%, 2.5%, 2.1%, and 2.0%, down from 3.1%, 2.6%, 2.1%, and 2.0% [21] Group 3: Balance Sheet Management - The Fed is restarting "Reserve Management Purchases" (RMP) to maintain adequate reserve levels, with a purchase scale of $40 billion per month starting this December [14][35] - RMP is distinct from quantitative easing (QE), as it involves purchasing short-term Treasury securities to manage liquidity rather than a broad monetary policy shift [15][16] Group 4: Market Reactions - Following the FOMC meeting, the stock market saw gains, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 1.05%, and the S&P 500 increasing by 0.67% [38] - The dollar index fell by 0.6% to 97.24, while yields on 10-year and 2-year Treasury bonds decreased [38]