报告摘要 美元还会继续弱吗？——基于两个背离下的美元叙事修正 近期市场各种关于美元的宏大叙事（比如"去美元化"）大行其道，但宏大叙事难以提供对短期市场走势的有效指引。本文不谈长期宏观叙事，而是希望从我们观察 到的美元指数与其历史规律"锚"的两大背离出发，结合具体数据，重新审视当下流行的美元叙事。 （一）思辨之一：如何理解美元指数长期趋势与美国经济占比反向 1 、现象：美国经济占比下，但美元指数上 文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人：夏雪 （微信 SuperSummerSnow） 核心观点 基于美元指数两个背离 ( 长期与经济占比"脱钩"，短期与十债利率反向 ) 的思辨，我们认为，需要重新审视并修正"美元将开启持续单边下跌向 70-80 年代看齐"的 叙事。实际上，中期视角而言，考虑到美国相对欧日经济增速差或仍然占优、当下全球养老资管机构因美元波动率上行补美元空仓的交易 或 已比较极致，美元下 跌最快的时候或已过去，未来半年到一年或难言美元持续下行，反而可能需要警惕因仓位演绎较为充分带来的美元反弹风险 。 后金融危机时代，美国经济占比与美元指数 ...

法律声明 华 创 证券研究所 定 位 为 面 向 专 业 投 资 者的研究团队，本资料仅适用于经认可的 专 业 投 资 者 ， 仅 供 在 新 媒 体 背景下研究 观 点 的 及 时 交 流 。 华 创证券不因任何订阅本资料的行为而将订 阅 人 视 为 公 司 的 客 户 。 普 通 投资者若使 用 本 资 料 ， 有 可 能 因 缺乏解读服务而对报告中的关键假设、评 级 、 目 标 价 等 内 容 产 生 理 解 上的歧义， 进 而 造 成 投 资 损 失 。 文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 袁玲玲（微信 Yuen43） 根据《证券期货投资者适当性管理办法》及配套指引，本资料仅面向华创证券客户中的金融机构专业投资者，请勿对本资料 进行任何形式的转发。若您不是华创证券客户中的金融机构专业投资者，请勿订阅、接收或使用本资料中的信息。本资料难 以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。感谢您的理解与配合。 本资料来自华创证券研究所已经发布的研究报告，若对报告的摘编产生歧义，应以报告发布当日的完整内容为 准。须注意的是，本资料仅代表报告发布当 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of appropriate investor management and the need for professional investors to interpret research reports accurately to avoid potential investment losses [1][2]. Group 1 - The research team at Huachuang Securities is positioned to provide insights specifically for professional investors, highlighting the necessity of understanding the context of the reports [2]. - The materials are intended solely for recognized professional investors and should not be used by ordinary investors due to the risk of misinterpretation [2]. - The article notes that the opinions and analyses presented may change without notice based on subsequent reports from Huachuang Securities [2].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need to analyze the impact of external environment changes on corporate profitability, particularly in the industrial sector, and the necessary policy responses to stabilize profits [2][3]. Group 1: External Demand Exposure - The estimated external demand exposure for industrial revenue is approximately 16.2% [5][20]. - The calculation of external demand exposure is defined as the total export value of industrial enterprises divided by total revenue, with 2024 total exports projected at 25.5 trillion and industrial revenue at 156 trillion [5][20]. Group 2: Export Profit Elasticity - Two pathways are used to estimate the elasticity of industrial profits to export changes: one focusing on revenue and profit margins, and the other on total output [6][8]. - The elasticity of industrial profits to exports is estimated to be between 0.41% and 0.43%, meaning a 1% change in exports could lead to a 0.41% to 0.43% change in industrial profits [21][23]. Group 3: Domestic Demand Elasticity - The elasticity of industrial profits to final consumption is estimated at 0.54%, while to capital formation it is 0.70%, indicating that changes in domestic demand have a significant impact on industrial profits [31][32]. - A 1% increase in final consumption is estimated to increase industrial profits by approximately 0.05 trillion, while a similar increase in capital formation could raise profits by about 0.06 trillion [32]. Group 4: Policy Response Requirements - To stabilize industrial profits, a 1% decline in exports may require a 0.76% increase in final consumption growth or a 0.59% increase in capital formation growth [35][36]. - The required policy response is greater for consumption than for investment, reflecting the broader impact of consumption across various sectors [36]. Group 5: Industry-Level Insights - Industries with high export elasticity include textiles and metal smelting, while those with high elasticity to final consumption include food and tobacco, and paper and education [45][49]. - Industries that could benefit from increased investment include non-metallic products and metal smelting, which have high elasticity to capital formation [49].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the progress and future expectations regarding the clearance of government debts owed to enterprises, highlighting the allocation of special bonds for this purpose [1][11][19] - In 2024, the Ministry of Finance allocated a debt limit of 1.2 trillion yuan to support local governments in resolving hidden debts and clearing overdue payments to enterprises [1][11] - By 2025, the government plans to use newly issued special bonds, amounting to 4.4 trillion yuan, to address overdue payments and support investment projects [1][11][19] Group 2 - Recent developments show that several provinces have announced budget adjustments, with Yunnan Province allocating 356 billion yuan for debt clearance, while Hunan Province allocated 200 billion yuan, representing 14% of its annual special bond limit [13][14] - The total amount of special bonds confirmed for debt clearance currently stands at 556 billion yuan, with expectations that it may exceed 1 trillion yuan for the year [18][19] - The overall trend indicates that the use of special bonds for debt clearance may limit the funds available for project construction [2][19] Group 3 - Observations of the effectiveness of debt clearance can be gauged through the accounts receivable situation of enterprises, with significant increases in the average collection period for both industrial enterprises and A-share listed companies [20] - As of the first quarter of 2025, the average accounts receivable turnover days for A-share listed companies reached 52.6 days, indicating a longer collection period compared to previous years [20] - Industries with traditionally longer accounts receivable turnover days include water conservancy and environmental protection, which averaged 185 days [20] Group 4 - The Huachuang Macro WEI index has shown an upward trend, reaching 7.94% as of June 15, 2025, driven by factors such as asphalt operating rates and retail sales of passenger vehicles [25][26] - Retail sales of passenger vehicles increased by 21% year-on-year in mid-June, continuing a positive trend from previous months [28] - The construction sector is experiencing a decline in asphalt plant operating rates and cement dispatch rates, indicating potential challenges in infrastructure development [36] Group 5 - The issuance of new special bonds is expected to increase significantly, with plans to issue over 400 billion yuan in a single week, marking a new high for 2024 [62][63] - The downward trend in funding rates is evident, with the DR001 rate at 1.3742% as of June 20, 2025, reflecting a decrease from the previous week [74]

Group 1 - The article highlights the recent focus of the Chinese government on economic recovery through infrastructure, trade, and innovation, emphasizing the importance of high-quality development in major economic provinces like Jiangsu [2][11][12] - The government is actively promoting the "old for new" consumption policy to stimulate demand and is closely monitoring the performance of foreign trade and international market expansion [2][3] - There is a strong emphasis on technological innovation and regulatory measures in the platform economy, with specific attention to the logistics sector and the need for improved oversight to combat unfair practices [3][13] Group 2 - The article discusses the significant outcomes from the Lujiazui Forum, including the establishment of a digital RMB international operation center and the promotion of offshore financial services in Shanghai [5][15] - Key financial reforms are being introduced, such as the creation of a new tier in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the launch of new financial products to support technology companies [5][18][19] - The government is committed to enhancing the international financial center status of Shanghai, with plans to attract more financial institutions and improve the regulatory framework [20][21]

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人：付春生 （18482259975） 报告摘要 本轮伊以冲突以来，伊朗再次发出封锁霍尔木兹海峡的威胁。本篇报告主要梳理霍尔木兹海峡的贸易重要 性以及封锁威胁的"前车之鉴"。 一、霍尔木兹海峡的能源贸易战略地位 霍尔木兹海峡介于伊朗与阿拉伯半岛的阿曼角之间。海峡北岸是伊朗，海峡南岸是阿曼；东接阿曼湾，西 连波斯湾， 是波斯湾通往印度洋的唯一出口 。 霍尔木兹海峡是全球能源贸易的咽喉要道 。2024年全球石油和其他液体燃料的消费量大约102.7百万桶/ 天，其中大约75.5百万桶/日是通过海运运输，占比约74%。而 流经霍尔木兹海峡的石油和其他液体燃料的 贸易量大约20.3百万桶/天，占全球消费量约20%，占全球海运贸易量约27% 。此外，2023年全球天然气消 费约3.96万亿立方米，其中贸易量占比约32%。在天然气贸易中，LNG贸易量占天然气贸易量的比例约 46%。 2024年流经霍尔木兹海峡的LNG贸易量约占全球LNG贸易量的20%，即约占全球天然气贸易量的 9% 。 二、封锁海峡，哪些地区受影响最大？ 从 ...

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 欧元区：6月PMI初值（6/23） ，6月消费者信心指数终值（6/27）。 日本：6月PMI初值（6/23） ，6月东京CPI数据（6/27），5月失业率和求人倍率（6/27），5月零售销售 （6/27）。 本周海外重要经济数据和事件回顾 美国：1） 美联储6月FOMC会议维持利率不变，符合预期。 2）5月零售销售低于预期 ，环比-0.9%，预 期-0.6%，前值从0.1%下修至-0.1%，除汽车外的零售销售环比-0.3%，预期0.2%，前值从0.1%下修至0%。 3）5月工业产值低于预期 ，环比-0.2%，预期0%，前值从0上修至0.1%。 4）5月进口价格指数高于预期 ， 环比0%，预期-0.2%，前值0.1%。 5） 5月新屋开工折年125.6万套，预期135万套，前值从136.1万套上修至 139.2万套。 欧元区：5月CPI终值符合预期 。CPI同比终值1.9%，预期1.9%，初值从1.9%上修为2.2%，前值2.2%；核 心CPI同比2.3%，初值2.3%，前值2.3%。 日本：1） 日央行6月会议维持 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significant growth of individual income tax (IIT) in May, which has outperformed other tax categories, indicating a potential positive trend amidst overall fiscal challenges [4][11]. Group 1: Individual Income Tax (IIT) Insights - In May, the IIT increased by 12.3% year-on-year, leading all tax categories, following a 9% increase in April [4][11]. - From January to May, IIT is the only major tax category showing positive growth at 8.2%, significantly above the annual budget target of 3.2% [4][11]. - The growth in IIT is attributed to wage increases and dividend income, with wages accounting for 65.5% and dividends for 13.3% of IIT [5][6]. Group 2: Sustainability of IIT Growth - The growth in IIT may continue due to delayed salary adjustments for civil servants and increased trading volume in dividend stocks [5][6]. - The potential release of pent-up consumption from delayed salary adjustments could sustain IIT growth into the latter half of 2024 [5][6]. Group 3: Impact on Incremental Policies - IIT's growth could offset the scale of incremental policy measures but may not change the direction of these policies [7][22]. - If IIT maintains its growth rate, it could exceed budget expectations by approximately 700 billion [7][22]. - Future incremental policies will be influenced by fiscal needs and economic demands, with key meetings scheduled for late July and August [8][9][10]. Group 4: Fiscal Data Analysis - In May, overall fiscal revenue showed a slight increase of 0.1%, with central government revenue maintaining a positive growth of 0.4% while local revenue turned negative at -0.1% [25][27]. - The manufacturing sector, particularly in computer and communication equipment, showed double-digit growth in tax revenue [27]. - Government fund income turned negative at -8.1% in May, primarily due to declining land sales revenue [41].

法律声明 文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 李星宇（18810112501） 根据《证券期货投资者适当性管理办法》及配套指引，本资料仅面向华创证券客户中的金融机构专业投资者，请勿对本资料 进行任何形式的转发。若您不是华创证券客户中的金融机构专业投资者，请勿订阅、接收或使用本资料中的信息。本资料难 以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。感谢您的理解与配合。 本资料来自华创证券研究所已经发布的研究报告，若对报告的摘编产生歧义，应以报告发布当日的完整内容为 准。须注意的是，本资料仅代表报告发布当日的判断，相关的分析意见及推测可能会根据华创证券研究所后续发 布的研究报告在不发出通知的情形下做出更改。华创证券的其他业务部门或附属机构可能独立做出与本资料的意 见或建议不一致的投资决策。本资料所指的证券或金融工具的价格、价值及收入可涨可跌，以往的表现不应作为 华 创 证券研究所 定 位 为 面 向 专 业 投 资 者的研究团队，本资料仅适用于经认可的 专 业 投 资 者 ， 仅 供 在 新 媒 体 背景下研究 观 点 的 及 时 交 流 。 华 创 ...