Core Viewpoint - The July non-farm payroll data showed disappointing results, with job additions falling below expectations and significant downward revisions to previous months' data, raising concerns about the U.S. labor market and potential recession risks [2][9][21]. Group 1: July Non-Farm Payroll Overview - The July non-farm payroll added 73,000 jobs, below the expected 104,000, marking the lowest three-month average since October 2010, excluding the pandemic impact [2][21]. - The revisions for May and June were substantial, with May's job additions revised down from 144,000 to 19,000 and June's from 147,000 to 14,000, totaling a downward revision of 258,000 jobs [2][21]. - Employment growth was concentrated in three sectors: education and health services (+79,000), retail (+15,700), and financial activities (+15,000), with education and health services contributing 108% of the new jobs [2][23]. Group 2: Unemployment Rate and Labor Participation - The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.2%, up from 4.1%, aligning with market expectations, while the labor participation rate decreased from 62.3% to 62.2% [25][26]. - The decline in labor participation contributed approximately 0.1 percentage points to the unemployment rate, suggesting that if labor supply had not decreased, the unemployment rate would be around 4.3% [25][26]. - The youth unemployment rate (ages 16-19) increased significantly, with a total decrease in the labor force population and an increase in unemployment among this demographic [25][26]. Group 3: Wage Growth and Working Hours - Hourly wage growth met expectations, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of 3.9%, indicating stable wage growth [32]. - Average weekly hours worked rose from 34.2 to 34.3, which is beneficial for household income, with weekly earnings increasing by 0.6% [32]. Group 4: Market Reactions and Interest Rate Expectations - Following the non-farm report, market expectations for interest rate cuts surged, with the probability of a September rate cut rising from 47.4% to 87.2% [3][35]. - The market reacted negatively to the report, with significant declines in U.S. stock indices and a drop in long-term Treasury yields, indicating a shift towards recession pricing rather than a "bad news is good news" sentiment [3][35].

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人：夏雪 （SuperSummerSnow） 行政令公布了对69个经济体的额外加征税率（这 69个经济合计占美国2024年进口的52.9%），水 平从10%~41%不等，其余经济体仍征收10%基准 关税。 ■ 三、值得关注的变化? □ 1、欧盟的15%并非额外加征税率,而是最低税率 水平。即,第一栏税率（美国的最惠国税率）不 足15%的商品,关税率加征15%-第一栏税率到 15%，第一栏税率超过15%的商品，不加征关税。 □ 2、明确对转运货物适用40%关税。 □ 3、原版对等关税的232行业关税及其他商品豁免 应该仍然适用,并非完全独立相互叠加征收。新 版对等关税是在4月2号旧版对等关税第14257号 行政令基础上作出修改,并未如关税信函中表述 特别提及独立于行业关税。 ■ 四、谁不在此次调整中?墨西哥、加拿大、中国 □ 墨西哥在未来90天内仍适用25%关税,加拿大关 税率由25%上调至35%,符合美墨加协定的商品 继续豁免。墨西哥、加拿大原本就不在4月2号对 等关税加征名单上,其被加征的关税为芬太尼和 非法 ...

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI data for July indicates a slight decline, reflecting ongoing challenges in demand and business expectations, with price transmission facing resistance despite some improvements in raw material costs [2][20]. Group 1: Price Transmission Challenges - The purchasing price index for major raw materials rose above the critical point for the first time since March, but terminal prices remain weak, as evidenced by the PMI output price index continuing to stay below the expansion threshold [10][21]. - The BCI consumer price forecast index decreased to 40.14% from 43.84%, while the BCI intermediate goods price forecast index fell to 31.14% from 36.55%, indicating a lack of significant improvement in terminal prices [10][21]. Group 2: Demand Weakness - The manufacturing PMI new orders index fell to 49.4% in July from 50.2%, suggesting a decline in demand compared to previous months [4][20]. - The BCI enterprise sales forecast index also dropped to 51.08% from 54.63%, reflecting a weakening outlook for sales [4][14]. Group 3: Weak Business Expectations - Business activity expectations across manufacturing, construction, and services remain low, with the manufacturing expectation index slightly rising to 52.6% from 52.0%, but still below previous highs [5][17]. - The BIC enterprise recruitment forecast index decreased to 44.5% from 49.1%, indicating reduced hiring intentions among businesses [5][17]. Group 4: Manufacturing PMI Data - The July manufacturing PMI registered at 49.3%, down from 49.7%, with specific indices showing declines in production, new orders, and export orders [2][20]. - The PMI production index fell to 50.5% from 51.0%, while the new export orders index decreased to 47.1% from 47.7% [20][22].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the market's expectation for interest rate cuts has significantly cooled following the July FOMC meeting, with indications that a rate cut in September is unlikely [2][4][8] - The FOMC has maintained the federal funds target rate at 4.25%-4.50% for the fifth consecutive meeting, which aligns with market expectations, but internal divisions within the Fed have increased, with two members supporting a 25 basis point cut [2][15][16] - The statement regarding economic growth has softened, indicating a slowdown in economic activity during the first half of the year, contrasting with previous assessments of robust expansion [2][16][17] Group 2 - Powell's press conference reflected a relatively neutral stance, acknowledging a slowdown in consumer spending while indicating that consumer conditions remain healthy [3][18][20] - The labor market is described as stable, with wage growth approaching sustainable long-term levels, although the unemployment rate's stability is partly due to synchronized declines in labor supply and demand [3][18][20] - Inflation dynamics have shifted, with service sector inflation decreasing while goods inflation is rising, influenced by tariffs and the gradual impact of restrictive monetary policy [3][20][21] Group 3 - Market expectations for rate cuts have decreased, with implied cuts for the year dropping from 1.848 to 1.445 times, and the probability of a September cut falling from 68% to 47% [4][21] - The dollar index has risen, and the yield on ten-year U.S. Treasury bonds has increased, reflecting a market interpretation of Powell's statements as leaning towards a hawkish stance [4][21] - The article suggests that political pressure is not a significant factor influencing the Fed's decisions, as Powell has maintained the Fed's independence despite external pressures [5][11][12]

Core Viewpoint - The economic transition from technical recession to unexpected growth in the first half of 2025 is primarily influenced by tariff-induced import rushes, with underlying demand growth showing signs of weakening [4][6]. Group 1: Economic Growth and Demand - In the first half of 2025, the U.S. economy experienced fluctuations due to tariff impacts, transitioning from an import rush to inventory depletion, resulting in significant GDP growth variations [6][12]. - The GDP growth rate for Q2 2025 was +3% (expected +2.6%), with a year-on-year growth of +2% (expected +1.8%) [2][29]. - Internal demand growth, excluding inventory, slowed to a year-on-year rate of +2.3%, down from +2.7% in the second half of 2024, indicating a weakening trend [4][15]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Consumer spending in the first half of 2025 showed strength, particularly in automobiles and clothing, likely due to preemptive purchases ahead of tariff implementations [7][17]. - The year-on-year growth rate for automobile and parts consumption was +6.6%, significantly higher than the 2024 average of -0.8% [7][17]. - Concerns arise that this preemptive consumption may lead to a slowdown in consumer spending in the latter half of 2025 [7][17]. Group 3: Business Investment Trends - Business investment showed a divergence from durable goods orders, with non-residential investment growing by +3.2% year-on-year, while durable goods orders surged by +11.2% [8][22]. - The strong growth in durable goods orders was primarily driven by transportation equipment, particularly aircraft, while other sectors remained subdued [8][26]. - Boeing's increased production capacity and foreign orders driven by trade negotiations are expected to sustain the structural strength in aircraft orders [8][26]. Group 4: GDP Data Analysis - The second quarter of 2025 saw a notable improvement in GDP, with internal demand slightly improving to a year-on-year growth of +1.7% [29][35]. - Consumer spending remained robust, with goods consumption showing a year-on-year increase of +3.5% [35]. - Government spending continued to show a mild decline, with a year-on-year growth of +2.3% in the first half of 2025 [37].

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 袁玲玲（微信 Yuen43） 根据《证券期货投资者适当性管理办法》及配套指引，本资料仅面向华创证券客户中的金融机构专业投资者，请勿对本资料 进行任何形式的转发。若您不是华创证券客户中的金融机构专业投资者，请勿订阅、接收或使用本资料中的信息。本资料难 以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。感谢您的理解与配合。 法律声明 华 创 证券研究所 定 位 为 面 向 专 业 投 资 者的研究团队，本资料仅适用于经认可的 专 业 投 资 者 ， 仅 供 在 新 媒 体 背景下研究 观 点 的 及 时 交 流 。 华 创证券不因任何订阅本资料的行为而将订 阅 人 视 为 公 司 的 客 户 。 普 通 投资者若使 用 本 资 料 ， 有 可 能 因 缺乏解读服务而对报告中的关键假设、评 级 、 目 标 价 等 内 容 产 生 理 解 上的歧义， 进 而 造 成 投 资 损 失 。 本资料来自华创证券研究所已经发布的研究报告，若对报告的摘编产生歧义，应以报告发布当日的完整内容为 准。须注意的是，本资料仅代表报告发布当 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that the worst phase of economic circulation is likely passing, with a positive evaluation of the first half of the year and a focus on the preparation for the "15th Five-Year Plan" [2][9] - Key indicators such as the growth rate of corporate deposits and the difference in year-on-year growth rates of household deposits are showing signs of recovery, indicating a shift from excessive saving to normal spending [2][9] - The political bureau's recent meetings reflect a shift from emphasizing external risks to focusing on domestic economic preparations and the effectiveness of existing policies [2][8] Group 2 - The report highlights that the reliance on extraordinary policies is diminishing, with a focus on maximizing the effects of existing policies rather than introducing new ones [8][9] - The GDP growth rate for the first half of the year was 5.3%, easing the difficulty of achieving the annual target of around 5% [9] - The upcoming months are critical for validating economic trends, particularly in the absence of extraordinary policies [9][10] Group 3 - The emphasis has shifted from total monetary easing to structural monetary policy, with a focus on supporting specific sectors such as technology innovation and consumption [12][14] - The current household deposits amount to 160 trillion, with a significant portion being excess savings, which influences monetary policy decisions [14] Group 4 - The political bureau's stance on capital markets has evolved from merely stabilizing to actively enhancing attractiveness and momentum [18][20] - The report notes a significant divergence in the Sharpe ratio between stocks and bonds, indicating a potential shift in asset allocation favoring equities [20] Group 5 - The focus has shifted towards optimizing competitive order rather than administrative capacity reduction, with measures to combat unfair competition being emphasized [22][23] - The report outlines a three-phase approach to countering "involution," starting with controlling new projects and potentially leading to industry consolidation [24][26]

法律声明 华 创 证券研究所 定 位 为 面 向 专 业 投 资 者的研究团队，本资料仅适用于经认可的 专 业 投 资 者 ， 仅 供 在 新 媒 体 背景下研究 观 点 的 及 时 交 流 。 华 创证券不因任何订阅本资料的行为而将订 阅 人 视 为 公 司 的 客 户 。 普 通 投资者若使 用 本 资 料 ， 有 可 能 因 缺乏解读服务而对报告中的关键假设、评 级 、 目 标 价 等 内 容 产 生 理 解 上的歧义， 进 而 造 成 投 资 损 失 。 本资料来自华创证券研究所已经发布的研究报告，若对报告的摘编产生歧义，应以报告发布当日的完整内容为 准。须注意的是，本资料仅代表报告发布当日的判断，相关的分析意见及推测可能会根据华创证券研究所后续发 布的研究报告在不发出通知的情形下做出更改。华创证券的其他业务部门或附属机构可能独立做出与本资料的意 见或建议不一致的投资决策。本资料所指的证券或金融工具的价格、价值及收入可涨可跌，以往的表现不应作为 日后表现的显示及担保。本资料仅供订阅人参考之用，不是或不应被视为出售、购买或认购证券或其它金融工具 的要约或要约邀请。订阅人不应单纯依靠本资料的信息而取代自身 ...

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 韩港（微信 HGK1366） 核心观点 2025 年 7 月，中央财经委提出"依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争"，那么当前治理反内卷有哪些法制化工 具？我们梳理，至少包含三个层面 一是在全国层面规范政府、企业的内卷行为 ，对于政府，主要是在全国统一大市场框架下引入公平竞争审 查、规范违规补贴等，对于企业，多是规范低价竞争。 二是在产业层面 ，调整产业结构、规范特定产业发展 ； 三是在具体产品层面 ，通过提高国家强制性标准来推动落后产能退出 ，目前来看，以上游的化工、煤炭等 产品为主，此外，据市场监管总局，针对新三样的标准提升正在进行中。 报告摘要 一、国家层面：规范政府、企业行为 相关的法制化工具可能至少包括 5 个 ，包括《中华人民共和国反不正当竞争法》、《中华人民共和国反垄 断法》、《中华人民共和国价格法》、《公平竞争审查条例》、《全国统一大市场建设指引 ( 试行 ) 》，前 两项法律的约束对象包括政府与企业、第三项以约束企业为主，第四、五项以约束政府为主。 以《中华人民 ...

Group 1: Capital Market Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) emphasized the importance of stabilizing the capital market and reforming it to enhance market vitality, focusing on three main tasks: consolidating market recovery, deepening reforms, and promoting long-term capital inflow [1][9] - The CSRC highlighted the need for a stable and healthy market environment, supported by the certainty of high-quality economic development and asset valuation recovery [1][9] Group 2: Hainan Free Trade Port - The Hainan Free Trade Port is set to officially start its closure operations on December 18, 2025, with a focus on implementing zero-tariff policies and optimizing tax arrangements to support diverse consumer needs [1][7] - The government plans to continue the duty-free shopping policy for Hainan, adjusting it to meet the evolving shopping demands of consumers [1][7] Group 3: Price Law Revisions - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) released a draft amendment to the Price Law, aiming to improve government pricing regulations and clarify standards for identifying unfair pricing behaviors, including low-price dumping [2][8] - The draft also seeks to enhance legal responsibilities for price violations, increasing penalties for non-compliance with pricing regulations [2][8] Group 4: Fiscal Policy Updates - The Ministry of Finance announced the allocation of 69 billion yuan in special long-term bonds to support the "old for new" consumption initiative, with additional funds to be distributed in October [2][10] - The fiscal measures aim to stimulate consumption and support economic recovery [2][10] Group 5: Energy Efficiency and Carbon Emission Regulations - The NDRC introduced new guidelines for energy efficiency reviews and carbon emission evaluations for fixed asset investment projects, establishing a dynamic adjustment mechanism for energy review authority [2][10][11] - Projects with significant energy consumption will undergo comprehensive reviews to ensure compliance with energy-saving and carbon reduction goals [2][10][11]