A股复盘 | 阅兵牛之后是牌照牛？ / 2025.06.25 虽然我昨天预感今天A股要大涨，但是我没预料到今天的C位是大金融！ 今天早上国泰海通国际暴涨，赶紧找消息，原来是获得了虚拟资产交易牌照。 至此，国泰君安国际成为首家可提供全方位虚拟资产相关交易服务的香港中资券 商，服务覆盖提供虚拟资产交易服务、在虚拟资产交易服务过程中提供意见，以 及发行、分销包括场外衍生品在内的虚拟资产相关产品。 最后人家股价以198.39%涨幅收盘。 | 这真的很难上车，一直到收盘，有的人还是懵逼的状态。 | | --- | 除此之外，央行等五部委联合发布《关于金融支持提振和扩大消费的指导意 见》，文件特别提到要聚焦消费重点领域加大金融支持，结合消费场景和特点创 新金融产品，持续推动消费领域金融服务提质增效，直接利好大金融板块。 再就是群友提供的"命令"！哈哈哈 固态电池主要是美股的消息。固态电池技术公司QuantumScape盘后暴涨。 QuantumScape表示，其成功将Cobra隔膜工艺整合到标准电池生产线中，这项 技术将成为其高效率连续流隔膜生产系统的基础。 我问了问AI，这项技术进步代表什么？ AI回答我，Cobra工 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the A-share market, the impact of geopolitical events, and the financial policies aimed at boosting consumption in China. Market Overview - The A-share market showed a significant increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.15%, the Shenzhen Component by 1.68%, and the ChiNext Index by 2.3% [6] - The total market turnover reached 14,483 billion, an increase of 3,013 billion from the previous day, with over 4,700 stocks rising [6] - 86 stocks hit the daily limit up, indicating strong market sentiment [6] Geopolitical Impact - The article highlights the ongoing situation in the Middle East, particularly the ceasefire between Israel and Iran, which has led to a reshuffling of current market hotspots [2][5] - The ceasefire has resulted in a decline in oil and gas stocks, while sectors like solid-state batteries and robotics have seen gains [6][7] Financial Policies - The People's Bank of China and six other departments issued guidelines to support consumption, aiming to increase disposable income for households [14] - A 3,000 billion MLF operation was announced, with a one-year term, to enhance liquidity in the market [14] - The guidelines also include measures to promote the issuance of financial products that meet household wealth management needs [14][16] Industry Performance - The solid-state battery sector has shown remarkable performance, with multiple stocks hitting the daily limit up [6][8] - The robotics sector rebounded after a period of decline, indicating a recovery in investor sentiment [6] - The gaming sector also saw activity, driven by the popularity of a newly renamed game [7] Investment Trends - The article notes a significant net inflow of 636.72 billion into the power equipment, non-bank financial, automotive, electronics, and computer sectors [21] - Conversely, there was a net outflow from the oil and petrochemical, transportation, defense, public utilities, and coal sectors [21] Company Insights - Huawei's MateBook Fold laptop utilizes a chip produced by SMIC, highlighting the challenges posed by U.S. export restrictions on China's semiconductor industry [11][12] - The laptop's use of older technology indicates that SMIC has not yet achieved mass production of more advanced chips [11][12]

A股复盘 | 反共识 / 2025.06.23 A股总是反共识的，昨晚空的有多坚定，今天涨得就有多超预期，当然你得拿对 筹码。 不过今天量能还是有点低，让人担忧明天A股的表现。 最近A股经常上演这种剧情，低开不怂，然后就是各种捡钱。高开或者震荡就突 然跳水，不让你赚钱！ 瑞银指出，霍尔木兹海峡关闭概率仍低，最新数据显示，霍尔木兹海峡的石油运 输并未受到当前局势的影响。虽然航运费率有所上升，但运输量保持稳定。伊朗 原油产量未受波及，目前维持在约330万桶/日，6月迄今出口量为约170万桶/ 日，甚至在6月中旬略有上升。 不过今天市场也没出现什么新热点，还是上周那些稳定币啊、跨境支付啊、固态 电池啊。 还有银行，真是太牛了，每次我以为它要崩了，马上给你整个新高，你不服涨到 你服！ 市场还是聚焦中东问题，伊朗可能以何种形式封锁霍尔木兹海峡？ 据WSJ，自上世纪80年代两伊战争以来一直穿越这条狭窄海峡的油轮船东和资深 船长们表示，德黑兰可能会在该水道布设水雷，用自己的一些油轮来封锁航道， 或者击沉其中几艘，从而在更长时间内完全阻断该通道。 瑞典油轮运营商Stena Bulk的首席执行官Erik Hanell说："他们 ...

摘要 / A股震荡下跌原因大揭秘 周末热点之一，美国打击伊朗核设施，还真是下场了！明天油气是不是又有得炒 了！ 据TankerTrackers.com的数据显示，从6月13日袭击开始后的5天内，伊朗原油 日均出口量达到了233万桶，比6月14日之前的年均水平高出44%。 东吴证券指出，前期量化资金抱团微盘股已显现出一定的瓦解迹象，若存量博弈 格局延续，量化资金仍将占据主导地位，但其配置策略上会减少市值暴露，需警 惕小微盘的短期回调风险。 配置上，东吴证券指出，创新药、新消费等热门主题短期可能已经到达阶段性顶 部。后续配置方面，建议关注业绩预期明朗，筹码、位置更具优势的泛科技方 向。 主要聊下A股周四、周五为什么下跌吧！ 看了好多策略周报，除了外围压制风险偏好外，内部宏观叙事走弱、资金止盈新 消费、微盘股等，导致赚钱效应变差，资金进一步流出。 国泰海通直接说，看似是中东，更合理的解释在于前期创新药、新消费等主题交 易已较为拥挤，市场借利空调整优化交易结构。 我再贴下申万宏源的全面分析： 1. 市场担心国内经济主要矛盾切换，可能有支撑力空窗期：6月港口数据率先回 落，"抢出口"提前走弱(市场基准预期是持续到7月) ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of potential military actions by the United States against Iran on global and A-share markets, highlighting the volatility and investor sentiment in response to geopolitical tensions. Group 1: Market Reactions - A-shares experienced significant declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.79%, the Shenzhen Component down 1.21%, and the ChiNext Index down 1.36% [9] - The total market turnover reached 12,810 billion, an increase of 591 billion from the previous day, indicating heightened trading activity amid market uncertainty [9] - Over 4,600 stocks in the market were in the red, reflecting widespread selling pressure [9] Group 2: Sector Performance - Oil and gas stocks saw a surge due to the potential for reduced Iranian supply, with companies like Shandong Molong and Zhun Oil achieving five consecutive trading limits [10] - Conversely, the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sectors faced the most significant outflows, with a net outflow of over 700 billion [6][20] - The gaming sector showed resilience, with short drama game stocks leading gains, as Tencent launched a new short drama mini-program [10] Group 3: Geopolitical Context - Reports indicated that U.S. President Trump approved plans for military action against Iran, which could escalate tensions in the region [1] - Iranian officials warned against U.S. intervention, stating that all military options were being considered [5] - Market predictions suggest a 65% probability of U.S. military action against Iran by July, while the likelihood of a nuclear agreement by 2025 stands at 50% [6]

Group 1 - The article discusses the potential military involvement of the US in the Middle East, particularly regarding Iran, as President Trump considers options to prevent Iran from developing nuclear capabilities [1] - The article mentions the recent Lujiazui Forum, where the market did not respond positively despite the presence of major industry leaders, focusing instead on infrastructure construction [1] - The article highlights the introduction of new policies for unprofitable companies to list on the ChiNext and Sci-Tech Innovation Board, indicating a shift in market dynamics [1] Group 2 - The article promotes a new foreign research report library that includes reports from major financial institutions like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley [3] - The People's Bank of China emphasized the steady progress of RMB internationalization and proposed eight financial policies to further open the financial system and promote RMB usage [3] - The article notes a significant phenomenon in the market where both ends of the "dumbbell" are simultaneously contracting, indicating extreme market conditions [3] Group 3 - The A-share market showed slight increases across major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.04% and the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.24% [4] - AI hardware-related stocks led the market, with several companies experiencing significant gains, driven by strong demand for ASIC chips [4] - Military stocks surged due to ongoing tensions in the Middle East, with companies like New Light Optoelectronics and North China Long Dragon hitting their upper limits [5] Group 4 - The article presents data from a Bank of America fund manager survey indicating a strong consensus among managers to short the US dollar, reflecting a significant market sentiment shift [9] - Investor sentiment has reportedly returned to levels reminiscent of a "golden girl bull market," with concerns over trade wars and recession fears easing [11] - The survey also reveals that 54% of respondents believe international stocks will perform best over the next five years, with a notable shift away from US assets [12]

A股复盘 | 又跌了 / 2025.06.17 一大早，看到华尔街日报的报道， 中东和欧洲官员表示，伊朗一直在发出紧急信 号，表明其寻求结束敌对行动并恢复有关其核项目的谈判，并通过阿拉伯中间人 向以色列和美国传递信息。 这些官员称，在以色列猛烈的空袭行动中，德黑兰已 告知阿拉伯官员，只要美国不加入攻击，伊朗方面就愿意重返谈判桌。 心想着，今天油气、核污染防治该消停消停了吧！ 结果又是霍尔木兹海峡起火、特朗普提前结束加拿大之行、警告撤离德黑兰啊， 一些资金又回到油气去了！ 这剧情真是扑朔迷离啊 伊朗现在骑虎难下， 被打得真落花流水， 必须得把核武器亮出来了！ 刚写完发现一条新闻，国际原子能机构：已发现伊朗纳坦兹铀浓缩设施遭受直接 打击。 里外一锅端了！ 再说说今天的行情，一个是创新药和新消费大跌，明星股泡泡玛特、蜜雪集团、 老铺黄金集体杀跌超5%。 说实话，涨了那么多，该调整调整了！ 虽然昨天周报里写了那个创新药临床试验审批流程提速30日的消息， 但是这段 时间不少机构都在写新消费和创新药交易热度太高！ 周报写了东吴的， 昨天华安也指出， 创新药当前交易拥挤度当前处于2022年以 来的极致水平。 将申万二级行业 ...

Economic Data Summary - In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41,326 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.4% [2] - The retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment saw a significant increase of 53% year-on-year [2] - The "national subsidy" has been suspended, which may impact future retail sales growth [2] Real Estate Market Insights - In May, housing prices continued to decline, with first-tier cities experiencing a 0.7% month-on-month drop in second-hand housing prices, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month [4] - The investment in real estate has seen an expanded decline in the first five months of the year [4] - Recent data indicates that new home transaction volumes in 30 cities have fallen below seasonal norms, reaching new lows for the same period in recent years [4] Stock Market Performance - The A-share market showed a collective increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.35%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.41%, and the ChiNext Index by 0.66% [9] - The total market turnover was 12,438 billion yuan, a decrease of 2,603 billion yuan from the previous day [10] - Over 3,500 stocks in the market experienced gains, with notable increases in stablecoin-related stocks due to positive sentiment around policy and capital [10] Capital Flow in Hong Kong Market - Southbound funds have been the main driving force behind the Hong Kong market, with a cumulative net inflow of 151.45 billion HKD from April 8 to June 9 [14] - International intermediaries have reduced their holdings, while southbound funds have significantly increased their presence in the market [14][15] Digital Economy Trends - The digital human sector is gaining traction, with notable companies involved in AI digital human technology seeing increased market interest [19] - The launch of new digital products and services is expected to enhance the digital economy landscape [19] Financial Sector Developments - The upcoming Lujiazui Forum will focus on enhancing cooperation between Shanghai and Hong Kong as international financial centers [20] - Discussions will include global monetary policy coordination and the sustainable development of capital markets [23]

摘要 / 以伊冲突对A股有何影响？ 送走了关税，没想到又迎来了以伊战火这个黑天鹅，周五A股毫无疑问又为中东 买单了。 | 图2、伊以冲突爆发后(6月13日)全球大类资产涨跌幅 | | --- | | 股市指数&股指期货 | 1 11 1 | UNIVAL / LITT | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 大英资产 | | | 全球重要指数 | 涨跌幅,% | 债券市场 | 变动幅度,bp | | 俄罗斯MOEX | 0.6 | 美国国债收益率-2年期 | 6.0 | | 英国富时100 | -0.4 | 美国国债收益率-10年期 | 5.0 | | 巴西IBOVESPA | -0.4 | 外汇 | 涨跌幅,% | | 恒生指数 | -0.6 | 美元指数 | 0.3 | | 印度Senssex30 | -0.7 | 欧元兑美元 | -0.3 | | 上证指数 | -0.8 | 高岸人民币兑美元 | 0.1 | | 韩国综合指数 | -0.9 | 日元兑美元 | -0.4 | | 日 经225 | -0.9 | 大宗商品 | 涨跌幅, % | | 法国CAC40 | -1.0 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance of the A-share market, highlighting the role of banks and insurance companies in maintaining the Shanghai Composite Index above 3400 points, and the implications of the AH share premium index reaching a five-year low [1][5]. Group 1: A-Share Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index managed to stay above 3400 points, supported by banks and insurance companies [1]. - The AH share premium index fell to 127.84 points, indicating a narrowing discount of H-shares compared to A-shares, primarily due to better performance of H-shares [1]. - Since April 2024, the Hang Seng Index has experienced four rounds of technical bull markets, with the bottom central point continuously rising [1]. Group 2: IP Economy and Consumer Trends - The IP economy saw significant growth, driven by high demand for collectible items like LABUBU, which sold for 1.08 million yuan [5]. - Bubble Mart is expanding production to meet demand, indicating a strong market for collectible toys [5]. - The average annual return for LABUBU hidden items is over 300%, with some collaborative items seeing a resale premium of 30 times [5]. Group 3: Z Generation Consumption Behavior - The Z generation (ages 16-30) is becoming a key driver of new consumption trends, with a strong willingness to spend [9]. - Their consumption motivations include emotional value (40.1%), quality (37.1%), minimalism (36.9%), and cost-effectiveness (30.2%) [9]. Group 4: Low-Tier City Consumption Potential - The impact of real estate on low-tier cities is diminishing, leading to a release of consumption potential [10]. - The housing price-to-income ratio in mid-tier cities has decreased from 8.5 years in 2020 to 5.7 years in 2024, indicating improved affordability [10]. - Residents in lower-tier cities show less concern about future financial situations, suggesting potential for consumption upgrades [10]. Group 5: Market Trends and Sector Performance - The A-share market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.01%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.11% [13]. - The total market turnover reached 13,037 billion yuan, with over 2300 stocks rising [13]. - Key sectors like rare earths, quantum technology, and the IP economy saw significant activity, while food and beverage stocks faced net outflows [14][15].