点击上图▲立即收听 " 这场发布会背后，是处于分水岭之年的苹果。发布会的主题是 ' 燃 ' ，今年最适合苹果的形容词，可能是 ' 难 ' 。 " 文 / 巴九灵（微信公众号：吴晓波频道） 北京时间 9 月 10 日凌晨 1 点，一年一度的苹果新品发布会全 球直播 ，主题是"燃"。 观摩完 2 个小时的发布会， 朋友圈蹲守的果粉，给出的评价大都是：无聊、鸡肋等，很难与"燃"关联到一起。 资本市场的反应也隐含了态度，苹果股价随着发布会进入介绍 iPhone 环节开始一路下跌，发布会结束后直线跳水，盘中跌幅接近 2% 。 发布会一共推出了 3 款 iPhone 、 3 款 A pple Watch 和一款新 耳机。 延续 " 延续单数微调，双数突破的"不成文规定"， 这次发布的 iPhone17 标配和 pro 版本基本是在上一代基础上的微调。 虽然没有太多创 意， 但如部分网友所言，苹果确实拿出了诚意。 年初以来一度被传要涨价，但这次 iPhone 17 标准版"加量不加价"，起售价不 变的同时换上了更大的内存和高刷屏幕。 年年挤牙膏的苹果，这次算是"把牙膏挤爆了"。 苹果中国官网显 示， iPhone 17 国 ...

点击上图▲立即收听 "2020 年以来，目前全国打着 ' 债务咨询 '' 法律咨询 '' 暂停贷款 '' 个人债务重组 ' 等名义的企业已超过万家。 " 文 / 巴九灵（微信公众号：吴晓波频道） 2020 年以来，目前全国打着 " 债务咨询 "" 法律咨询 "" 暂停贷款 "" 个人债务重组 " 等名义的企业已超过万家。 一辆汽车后挡风玻璃上的八个大字，引起了小巴的注意。 上面额外醒目地写着 " 个人债务优化重组 " ，底下是一串电话号码，不禁令人联想起了十多年前满大街的 " 办证小广告 " 。 图源：小巴拍摄 形迹可疑的 " 援手 " 近三年来，媒体陆续报道了一出怪象。 与大马路上的简单粗暴相比，社交平台上，它们显得直白、热心且专业： # 信用卡 / 网贷逾期别划走，教你这个办法 # # 负债逾期还不上别担心， 24 小时法律服务咨询 # 图源：抖音、小红书 这些所谓的 " 化债人 " 是谁？他们对谁喊话？因何而生？ 一些银行称收到了多份投诉信，信中，用户指控银行进行了不合理催收，要求银行提供高额赔偿，并对原有债务免息、免本金。 催收是一个专有名词，特指债权人或其委托的第三方机构，通过合法、合规的手段向债务 ...

点击按钮▲立即报名 中国8月出口同比增长4.8% 9月8日，海关总署公布数据显示，按美元计，中国8月出口同比增长4.4%，进口同比增长1.3%。按人民币计，中国8月出口2.3万亿元，同比增长 4.8%；进口1.57万亿元，同比增长1.7%。进出口总值3.87万亿元，同比增长3.5%。出口、进口连续3个月实现双增长。 具体来看，前8个月，中国与美国贸易总值为2.73万亿元，下降13.5%，占中国外贸总值的9.2%，出口同比下降14.6%，8月单月出口同比下降 33.1%。稀土出口虽然在数量上环比下降3.4%，但出口价值从7月的3640万美元跃升至5500万美元，增幅超过51%，反映出稀土产品价格的显著 上涨。中国8月大宗商品进口呈现全面回升态势，原油、铁矿石、铜和大豆均实现同比增长。（海关总署官网） ｜点评｜ 中国8月出口增速有所放缓。8月美国开始对转运商品征收40%额外关税，对中国转口贸易产生了一定影响。前期美国"抢出口"效应走 弱，透支了部分需求，再加上关税影响，中美贸易额快速下滑，成为中国出口中的主要拖累项。稀土出口量减价增，表明中国在稀土产业链上 的话语权。不过，稀土单一产品出口值较低，难以对整体出口表 ...

立即点击 ▲ 观看视频 吴晓波： 好莱坞电影《加勒比海盗》 里的 杰克船长，自由，浪漫，永远冒险，而宋坤跟我 说，没有好船长，只有老船长。 宋坤： 这是我们水手间的一句话。不管你是一个多么好的船长，虽然你能跑得比别人快，能优 秀的 组织管理 你的船员，但是如果你没有活下去，你就不是一个好船长，只有那个活到老的船 长才是真正的好船长。 吴晓波 ： 企业也一样，能够活得久，能够不下牌桌就是一个好的企业。因为企业会经历无数的 周期，经历无数的挑战。 这个创新是来源于我过去丰富的航行经验，我可能没有遇到过这样的事件，但我可能看过其他 船长用类似的方法解决这样的情况。所以我认为在船上所有的创新都是源于自己的经验，更多 的经验会让你有更多的能力去创新。 吴晓波 ： 在我们这个行业叫做"所有的创新都是遭遇的结果"。 吴晓波： 你觉得创新和经验在你的成长经历中，他们分别扮演怎么样的一个成分和角色呢？ 宋 坤 ： 创新其实是源于经验的。我打个比方，假设今天正在航行，突然之间我的主帆缭绳崩 断了，我的横杆飞出去在风中抖，也没有人教过我应该怎么办，我现在就想，我要怎么把这个 问题解决掉？ 那么，我现在一定要找一根绳子，把它从最后面 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the recent food delivery war on small and micro businesses, highlighting the decline in profit margins and the challenges faced by local eateries amidst aggressive competition from major platforms [2][3][7]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The food delivery market has significantly expanded, with daily orders from major platforms reaching 250 million, up from 80 million before the competition intensified [4]. - Major platforms like Meituan, JD, and Alibaba reported a combined profit drop of over 20 billion yuan in the second quarter, with net profits down 89%, 50.8%, and 18% respectively [3][5]. - The competition has led to a substantial increase in user engagement, with Taobao's flash purchase orders peaking at 12 million daily and Meituan maintaining a dominant market share with over 15 million daily orders [5]. Group 2: Impact on Small Businesses - Small and micro businesses, particularly those with low average transaction values, have seen profit margins decline by 7.2% overall, with those under 20 yuan experiencing a 12.61% drop [7][10]. - Community-based eateries, often family-run, are struggling as consumer preferences shift towards cheaper delivery options, leading to a decrease in foot traffic and profitability [12][13]. - Many small business owners report that participation in delivery services often results in losses, as they are forced to subsidize delivery costs while receiving only half the profit compared to dine-in orders [15][16]. Group 3: Survival Strategies - Some small businesses have adapted by focusing on enhancing the dine-in experience, using delivery as a supplementary channel rather than a primary revenue source [21][26]. - Successful examples include eateries that maintain a strong local presence and customer loyalty by offering unique dining experiences and quality service, which helps convert delivery customers into dine-in patrons [26][31]. - The article suggests that the future of small eateries may involve either enhancing dine-in experiences or embracing retail trends, similar to successful models seen in Japan and Singapore [34][39][43].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses seven emerging cultural trends among the younger generation, highlighting their shift away from traditional career paths and societal expectations towards a more self-defined lifestyle and values [5][11][48]. Group 1: Career and Work Trends - A significant portion of the younger workforce is rejecting traditional management roles, with 59.7% of post-95 employees unwilling to take on management positions, a 31 percentage point increase since 2018 [6][8]. - Many young individuals are prioritizing work-life balance over salary increases, with a growing sentiment that promotions do not justify the additional responsibilities and stress [7][9]. - The trend of pursuing side hustles, freelancing, and entrepreneurship is on the rise, with nearly 40% of respondents preferring to become entrepreneurs or freelancers [10][11]. Group 2: Social and Identity Trends - Young people are increasingly adopting "fake identities" as a coping mechanism for excessive social interactions, allowing them to navigate social situations with more ease [12][15]. - The concept of "self-love" has evolved into a positive cultural phenomenon, with over 90% of respondents viewing self-love favorably, emphasizing personal well-being and social relationships [16][20]. - The rise of AI companionship products reflects a growing trend of self-exploration and emotional support, with the AI emotional companionship market projected to grow significantly, reaching over 595 billion by 2028 [21][22]. Group 3: Parenting and Education Trends - A new approach to parenting, termed "苦难育儿" (hardship parenting), is emerging, where parents focus on teaching children practical survival skills rather than traditional academic achievements [39][41]. - This shift is driven by a recognition of the changing landscape of education and the need for children to develop resilience and adaptability in an AI-driven world [39][40]. Group 4: Consumption and Lifestyle Trends - Young people are redefining value in their consumption choices, gravitating towards community-based services and public facilities that offer affordable and multifunctional spaces [41][45]. - The nostalgia trend is becoming a significant consumer behavior, with brands increasingly tapping into this sentiment to drive sales, as seen in the rise of "nostalgia marketing" [29][30].

Group 1: Service Trade Growth - In the first seven months of 2025, China's service trade exports grew significantly, with total service trade reaching 45,781.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.2%. Exports alone reached 19,983 billion yuan, growing by 15.3% [2] - Travel service exports saw the fastest growth, with a total of 12,594.6 billion yuan in travel service trade, increasing by 10.4%. Exports in this sector surged by 62.9% [2] - The share of service trade in China's overall foreign trade remains low, accounting for only 14.6% in 2024, indicating potential for future growth [2] Group 2: Sports Industry Development - The State Council recently issued 20 measures to enhance the sports industry, aiming to cultivate world-class sports enterprises and events by 2030, with the industry expected to exceed 7 trillion yuan in total scale [4] - The focus is on expanding sports product supply, stimulating consumer demand, and strengthening industry support, highlighting the potential for experiential consumption in the sports sector [4] Group 3: AI Adoption in Employment - A survey by the New York Fed revealed that about 40% of service sector firms are using AI, up from 25% last year, with expectations for further growth in AI deployment [5] - Despite the rise in AI usage, only 13% of firms anticipate layoffs due to AI, indicating that job reductions have not yet materialized significantly [5] - The impact of AI on the job market is expected to evolve gradually, with many white-collar jobs potentially at risk of being replaced by AI in the future [6] Group 4: Semiconductor Tariffs - Former President Trump announced tariffs on semiconductor companies that do not establish production in the U.S., with exemptions for those investing in U.S. manufacturing [7] - The tariffs are seen as having limited impact, as many semiconductor firms have already planned expansions in the U.S. due to previous pressures [7] - Recent court rulings suggest that many of Trump's tariff measures may be illegal, potentially leading to changes in tariff policies [8] Group 5: Real Estate Debt Settlement - Yunnan Chengtou announced a debt settlement plan involving property as collateral, with a total of 92 residential units valued at approximately 81.05 million yuan being used to offset debts [9] - The property market conditions indicate challenges in liquidating these assets, as the valuation is lower than market prices, suggesting potential difficulties in future sales [10] Group 6: Xiaohongshu's Profit Growth - Xiaohongshu is projected to triple its annual profit to 3 billion USD, surpassing competitors like Pinterest and Snap [11] - The company's valuation has surged to 31 billion USD, driven by successful monetization strategies and a growing e-commerce segment [11] - There are ongoing speculations about Xiaohongshu's potential IPO, supported by its profitability and favorable market conditions [12] Group 7: Hong Kong IPO Market - The Hong Kong IPO market saw a significant increase in financing, with a 714% year-on-year growth, reaching 14 billion USD in the first half of the year [13] - The surge in IPOs has led to increased revenues for brokerage firms, with a notable rise in underwriting and investment banking fees [13] - The favorable regulatory environment and improved listing processes have encouraged mainland companies to pursue listings in Hong Kong [14]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the investment landscape, comparing the long-term potential of A-shares with the recent surge in gold prices, highlighting the choices investors face between these two asset classes [3][5]. Group 1: A-shares Market - The Shanghai Composite Index has recovered above 3800 points, marking a significant rise over the past four months, reaching a nearly ten-year high [3]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has proposed to lower the subscription fee rates for various types of funds, signaling an effort to stabilize investor confidence in the A-share market [5][6]. - Analysts believe that the A-share market can sustain its slow bull trend, viewing recent adjustments as opportunities for investors [5]. Group 2: Gold Market - Gold prices have recently surpassed $3500 per ounce, reaching historical highs, with predictions suggesting potential increases to $3730 by the end of the year and even $4000 by mid-2026 under baseline scenarios [6][9]. - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is seen as a key factor driving gold prices higher, with market sentiment shifting towards gold as a safe haven amid economic uncertainties [7][24]. - Central banks globally are increasing their gold reserves, with gold now surpassing the euro as the second-largest reserve asset, indicating strong long-term support for gold prices [9][11]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Investment experts suggest that gold and A-shares can coexist in a diversified portfolio, with historical data showing periods where both asset classes have risen simultaneously [27][29]. - Recommendations for individual investors include allocating 5%-10% of their portfolios to gold to optimize performance and reduce volatility [27][36]. - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring gold ETF holdings and futures market positions to gauge market sentiment and potential price movements [14][24].

Core Viewpoint - The 9.3 military parade serves as a "preview" of China's future industries, highlighting the importance of developing future industries as a driver for high-quality economic growth and a factor in a country's global competitiveness and influence [2][8]. Group 1: Military Equipment and Technological Advancements - 84% of the equipment showcased in the parade was revealed for the first time globally, including advanced weapons like the J-20S and DF-61 [4]. - The rapid development of "sci-fi" military equipment over six years reflects the integration of cutting-edge technologies from civilian sectors, such as AR glasses in tanks and advanced radar systems [6][8]. Group 2: Future Industries Strategy - The concept of "future industries" was first introduced in the 14th Five-Year Plan, emphasizing the need for strategic layout in areas like brain-like intelligence, quantum information, and hydrogen energy [7]. - By 2024, six major battlegrounds for future industries have been identified: future manufacturing, information, materials, energy, space, and health, encompassing 78 key tracks [7][8]. Group 3: Investment and R&D Growth - During the 14th Five-Year Plan, China's total R&D investment reached 3.6 trillion yuan, a nearly 50% increase from the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan, solidifying its position as the second-largest R&D investor globally [8][15]. - The focus of R&D investment is shifting towards foundational fields and strategic emerging industries, with expectations that basic research funding will exceed 8% by 2025 [16][17]. Group 4: Production Services and Industry Competitiveness - The development of productive services is crucial for enhancing industrial competitiveness and resilience, with China's productive services accounting for about 31% of GDP, still below the EU average of 40% [18][24]. - Recommendations include fostering numerous small and medium-sized enterprises in productive services and developing leading firms in this sector to enhance overall industrial efficiency [25]. Group 5: Global Competitors and Strategic Focus - Countries like the U.S., Germany, Japan, and South Korea are focusing on strategic areas such as AI, manufacturing, and renewable energy, with each country having its unique industrial emphasis [28][30]. - China's competitive landscape shows strengths in areas like renewable energy and quantum communication while striving to catch up in critical technology sectors like AI [34]. Group 6: Market Projections for Future Industries - By 2030, the market size for key future industries in China is projected to reach approximately 10 trillion yuan, with specific sectors like future intelligence expected to grow to 5 trillion yuan [43]. - Other sectors, such as quantum information and low-carbon energy, are also anticipated to see significant market growth, with projections of 300 billion yuan and 1.6 trillion yuan, respectively [44][46]. Group 7: Emerging Technologies and Innovations - Technologies such as general artificial intelligence, humanoid robots, and controllable nuclear fusion are highlighted as key areas for future growth, with significant market potential and advancements expected in the coming years [51][54][55]. - The new energy storage sector is experiencing rapid growth, with China's new energy storage installations expected to exceed 73.7 GW by 2024, representing over 40% of the global total [56].

Group 1: Trade and Regulatory Developments - China has initiated its first anti-circumvention investigation against U.S. imports of specific optical fibers, aiming to address evasion of anti-dumping measures that have been in place since 2011 [2][3] - The investigation is a response to evidence that U.S. exporters altered product types to bypass existing tariffs, highlighting ongoing trade tensions in the global fiber optics market [2][3] Group 2: Economic Insights from the Federal Reserve - The latest Federal Reserve Beige Book indicates economic concerns, with businesses hesitant to hire due to weak sales and trade uncertainties, while inflation pressures from tariffs are described as moderate [4][5] - The report suggests a stable but weakening labor market, with companies increasingly using AI to replace jobs and manage workforce levels cautiously [4][5] Group 3: Local Government Financing and Debt Issuance - In August, local governments issued 977.6 billion yuan in bonds, exceeding previous plans, with a significant portion directed towards government investment funds to support technological innovation and future industries [7][8] - The shift in bond allocation reflects a response to limitations in traditional financing sources, aiming to stimulate local economic growth through new investment strategies [7][8] Group 4: Housing Market and Banking Sector - The six major state-owned banks reported a decline of 107.8 billion yuan in personal mortgage loans in the first half of the year, continuing a downward trend for three consecutive years [9][10] - Despite the overall decline, some banks remain optimistic about future mortgage applications, indicating a potential recovery in housing demand in key urban areas [9][10] Group 5: Technology Sector Developments - Apple is reportedly collaborating with Google to enhance Siri's search capabilities with a new feature called "World Knowledge Answer," which aims to provide AI-generated summaries rather than simple links [11] - This move reflects Apple's need to catch up in AI technology, as the company has faced criticism for a lack of innovation in recent years [11] Group 6: Market Reactions and Stock Performance - The stock of Cambricon Technologies saw a significant drop, losing over 800 billion yuan in market value due to index adjustments and concerns over its reliance on a few major clients for revenue [14][15] - The overall market experienced a downturn, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 1.25%, driven by declines in technology and military sectors, while consumer stocks showed resilience [16][17]