点击上图▲立即收听 " 本分，本是初心，分是边界，初心如磐石，边界随能力慢慢扩展。 " 文 / 巴九灵（微信公众号：吴晓波频道） "在科学史、艺术史和商业史上，当一个流派或国家正处于鼎盛的上升期时，便会在某一年份集束式地诞生一批伟大的人物或公司。" 《激荡三十年》这样写道。 但对 1978年以来的中国而言，命运的齿轮几乎年年启动。今天，我们把时间定格在1995年。 在 1995年的东莞长安镇，挤满了20多岁 、 刚从信息与电子专业毕业的年轻人，他们中的 7个人此时正蜗居在一间两室两厅的小房子里埋头搞研 发，未来三十年，他们的命运，将和另外四个字母深度绑定：vivo。 —— 吴晓波 2025年是vivo企业成立三十周年。在这家公司诞生的前一年，伴随着第一个省级数字移动通信网在广东省开通，中国正式迈入"2G手机时代"。 从功能机到智能手机，手机行业曾有过 "十年一G"的断代标准，中国在3G时代崛起，在4G时代逼近一流，在5G时代领先，如今正引领着6G时代 的到来。 vivo三十年的故事，是中国手机品牌崛起的缩影。 三十年， vivo从一个7人小队，成长为研发人员超过1.3万人，并服务于全球60多个国家和地区超5亿 ...

点击上图▲立即报名 你的企业现在处于哪个发展阶段？该激进扩张还是收缩聚焦？是存量升级还是增量开拓？答案全在周期里。 9 月 19 日— 21 日，" 2025 ·吴晓波激荡讲堂"秋季课之《周期与中国企业战 略范式》在辽宁大连精彩开讲。 伴随着潮 汐的起伏，吴老师以诸多新鲜企业经营案例为引，推演中国企业发展战略范式，通过对三大周期的逐一拆解，探讨行之 有效的应对法门。 我们特别邀请到张伟俊老师，他是中国大陆首位把提升企业一把手领导力作为全职工作的"总裁教练"。 他以沉浸式案例 演练的方式，带领同学们解析经济底层逻辑和规律，共同探寻企业的发展之路。 这次课程 是 激荡讲堂开办 三年 以 来 听讲同学 人数最多的一 次。除了有连续三年打卡的 "资深同学"，邀请亲友、伴 侣共同进步的"团体型同学"，我们还迎来了多位热情向学的 95 后，更有同学专程从澳大利亚飞到大连上课。 跨越年龄、跨越地域，同学们在这次美好的相遇中邂逅同频、同价值的同行人，激发出诸多感悟： "我跟着吴老师去了很多地方，他是能让我牢牢坐在位置上耐心听课的老师。这次来到大连，我又收获良多，两个字总 结：真香！" "这次我是从澳洲专程回国来参加激荡讲堂， ...

Economic Indicators - In September, the US manufacturing PMI fell to 52, while the services PMI dropped to 53.9, indicating a slight slowdown in economic expansion [2] - The composite PMI also decreased to 53.6, marking the lowest level since June 2025, with new orders and employment indices declining [2] - Despite the slowdown, consumer spending remains resilient, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts may help prevent a recession [3] Regulatory Developments - The State Administration for Market Regulation in China has released a draft for public consultation on the basic requirements for food delivery platforms, focusing on service management and fee transparency [4] - The draft aims to regulate platform fees and promotional behaviors to prevent unfair competition and ensure food safety [4][5] Energy Consumption - In August, China's total electricity consumption reached 10,154 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 5.0%, with the manufacturing sector showing the highest growth at 5.5% [6] - The electricity demand growth reflects a robust economic recovery, although supply challenges remain due to mismatches in demand and supply timing [7] Computing Industry Initiatives - Hubei Province plans to develop a computing industry cluster, aiming for a total computing power of 25 EFLOPS by 2027, with a focus on integrating computing with optical communication and chip industries [8] - The measures encourage the development of a diverse computing infrastructure and aim to avoid homogeneous competition among cities [9] Labor Market Concerns - A survey indicates that 24% of young employees in the US and Europe are very concerned about potential job loss due to AI, compared to only 10% of older workers [10] - The rise of AI technology presents both challenges and opportunities for young workers, who may leverage AI to enhance their skills and productivity [11] Agricultural Sector Trends - The price of live pigs has dropped significantly, with a 10.4% decrease from early September and a 24.4% decline from the peak in February, reflecting an oversupply in the market [12] - Despite short-term measures to control production, the long-term outlook for the pig farming industry suggests a need for reduced production capacity to balance supply and demand [13] Stock Market Performance - On September 24, the stock market saw a broad increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.83% and the ChiNext Index reaching a three-year high [14] - The semiconductor sector continued to perform strongly, driven by developments in AI and chip demand, while consumer sectors like tourism showed weakness [15]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is currently the preferred choice for "deposit migration," while the attractiveness of the real estate sector has significantly diminished, except for necessary demand and improvements [2][39]. Group 1: Market Reactions and Historical Context - The market was eagerly awaiting a significant policy announcement, similar to the "9·24 New Policy" from a year ago, which had previously ignited a strong rally in the A-share market [3][5]. - The "9·24 New Policy" led to a rapid increase in the A-share index, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising from 2748 points to 3489 points within six trading days, a gain of 26.95% [10][11]. - Over the year following the "9·24 New Policy," the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 38.97%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and CSI 300 both rose by 40.13% [13]. Group 2: A-share Market Dynamics - The total market capitalization of A-shares grew from 70.6 trillion to 103.2 trillion RMB, an increase of 46.2% [15]. - The trading volume remained robust, with daily trading exceeding 2 trillion RMB and reaching a peak of over 3 trillion RMB [14]. - The number of new accounts opened in the Shanghai Stock Exchange reached 17.21 million in 2025, a 47.9% increase compared to the previous year [15]. Group 3: Real Estate Market Trends - The real estate market experienced a brief resurgence during the "Golden September and Silver October" period, with a 23.4% week-on-week increase in daily transactions of second-hand homes [17]. - However, the recovery in the real estate market is slower compared to the A-share market, with only five cities showing year-on-year price increases in August [18][22]. - Real estate development investment from January to August 2024 was 60,309 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 12.9% [21]. Group 4: Policy Impacts and Future Outlook - The "9·24 New Policy" provided significant short-term liquidity to the A-share market through measures such as a 0.5% reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and a 0.2% cut in the 7-day reverse repurchase rate [25][26]. - Long-term funding strategies were also implemented, aiming to channel substantial amounts of capital into the A-share market, with estimates suggesting that insurance companies could inject 526.6 billion RMB annually [27]. - In contrast, the real estate sector's policies focused on reducing burdens on existing loans, easing new purchase requirements, and providing support to struggling developers [28][31]. Group 5: Investor Sentiment and Market Behavior - The sentiment among investors has shifted significantly, with a growing preference for the A-share market as a destination for capital, driven by the expectation of higher returns compared to real estate [39]. - The differences in market liquidity and investor psychology between the A-share and real estate markets contribute to the contrasting recovery trajectories observed [24][36].

Group 1: International Trade and Logistics - The closure of the Polish port has disrupted the China-Europe Railway Express, forcing goods to seek alternative shipping routes, primarily by sea, which will extend transport times by approximately 40 days [2] - In 2024, China is projected to be the largest source of imports for the EU, accounting for about 21.3% of total EU imports, while being the third-largest export market for the EU at 8.3% [2] - The Christmas export season from Yiwu has significantly advanced, with a reported over 90% year-on-year increase in exports in May, indicating a shift in logistics strategies due to geopolitical factors [2][3] Group 2: Financial Support for Argentina - The U.S. Treasury has committed to providing comprehensive stabilization options for Argentina amid severe market sell-offs, including currency swap lines and direct purchases of Argentine pesos [4] - Following the announcement of U.S. support, Argentina's stock and bond markets experienced significant gains, with the Merval index rising over 8% [4] - Despite some improvements in inflation and fiscal conditions under President Javier Milei, challenges such as declining real wages and high unemployment remain pressing issues [5] Group 3: Nvidia and OpenAI Investment - Nvidia plans to invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI to build large-scale data centers, marking its largest investment commitment to date [6] - The investment will be phased with the deployment of at least 10 gigawatts of AI data centers, equivalent to 4 to 5 million GPUs, which is double Nvidia's total shipments from the previous year [6] - The partnership aims to create increased demand for Nvidia's AI chips, although concerns about a potential bubble in AI investments persist [7] Group 4: CATL's New Business Ventures - CATL has established a new company focused on the sales of electric vehicles, indicating a strategic move to expand its business beyond battery manufacturing [8] - The new company, fully owned by CATL, aims to integrate various aspects of the energy ecosystem, including battery supply and charging infrastructure [8][9] - CATL's strategy appears to be aimed at gaining more influence in the automotive market and enhancing its position in the supply chain [9] Group 5: Alibaba's Stake in Suning - Alibaba plans to reduce its stake in Suning.com by up to 2.85%, reflecting a strategic shift as it focuses on its core business [10] - Suning has shown signs of recovery, having turned a profit after shedding non-core assets, but still faces challenges in increasing foot traffic in its stores [11] Group 6: Regulatory Changes for Cross-Border Brokers - Recent regulatory changes have led to tighter restrictions on mainland residents opening accounts with cross-border brokers, impacting firms like Futu and Tiger Brokers [12] - The new requirements necessitate extensive documentation for account opening, making it more challenging for individual investors to access international markets [12][13] Group 7: Private Equity Market Trends - The stock private equity position has risen to 78.04%, indicating a significant increase in market engagement among private equity firms [14] - A majority of private equity firms are fully invested, reflecting a positive outlook on market conditions despite potential concerns about future funding sources [14][15] Group 8: Market Performance Overview - The stock market experienced a slight decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing down 0.18%, while the ChiNext Index saw a minor increase of 0.21% [16] - The semiconductor sector remains a market leader, although many sectors are exhibiting signs of phase-specific trends rather than broad market rotation [17]

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Indicators - The LPR in China has remained unchanged for four consecutive months, with the 1-year LPR at 3.00% and the 5-year LPR at 3.50% [2] - The stability in LPR pricing is attributed to unchanged policy rates, indicating a cautious approach by the People's Bank of China [2][3] - There is speculation that the central bank may implement a slight interest rate cut in Q4 to enhance liquidity in response to weakening export growth and slowing domestic demand recovery [3] Group 2: Real Estate Market Trends - A luxury property in Shanghai sold for over 32 million yuan per square meter, with total sales reaching 98.43 billion yuan in a single day [4] - Despite an overall downturn in the real estate market, the luxury segment remains robust, driven by high-net-worth individuals and a scarcity of prime properties [4][5] - The luxury market is showing independent trends compared to the general housing market, which is more affected by policy changes and income levels [5] Group 3: Corporate Developments and Market Reactions - OpenAI is collaborating with Luxshare Precision to develop a consumer-grade hardware product, indicating a strategic move to diversify revenue streams [8] - Nvidia has established its first AI technology center in the Middle East, partnering with the Abu Dhabi Technology Innovation Institute to advance AI models and robotics [10][11] - Anta Sports' stock price fell by 2.22% following controversy over an art event in the Himalayas, highlighting the impact of environmental concerns on brand reputation [12][13] Group 4: Investment Movements - Berkshire Hathaway has completely exited its investment in BYD, which had previously yielded a 3890% return, reflecting a shift in investment strategy [14][15] - The competitive landscape in China's new energy vehicle sector has intensified, prompting Berkshire to reassess its position in the market [15] Group 5: Stock Market Performance - The Chinese stock market experienced slight gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.22% amid strong performance in the semiconductor sector [16] - Market dynamics show a clear divergence between sectors, with technology stocks gaining while consumer sectors face challenges [17]

1 物流业出海 ： 在痛点与试错中成长 立即点击 ▲ 观看视频 文 / 卓立（微信公众号：吴晓波频道） 当"出海"成为中国企业寻求增长的确定性答案，一个巨大的挑战也随之浮现：全球供应链的复 杂性。 据麦肯锡研究显示，全球供应链网络经历了数十年的优化，但其脆弱性在近年暴露无遗，促使 超过90%的企业开始重新审视其供应链布局。 而在这幅宏大的出海版图中，物流成本和效率是决定成败的生命线。 根据中国物流与采购联合会的数据，尽管中国社会物流总费用与GDP的比率已优化至14.4%， 但许多出海目的地这一比例高达20%甚至25%以上。 这意味着，每创造100元GDP，就有20多元消耗在物流环节，巨大的降本空间背后，也隐藏着巨 大的风险。 本期，我对话了一位国际物流领域的资深舵手——冠亚物流何国庆。他与其团队在十余年间完 成38个海外布点，在一次次"踩坑"与"试错"中，不仅为客户创造过单年降低40%物流成本的纪 录，也见证了无数因忽略物流细节而折戟沉沙的案例。 让我们透过他的视角，看中国出海事业最真实的波澜壮阔，获取那些用巨大代价换来的、关于 风险、成本与生存的宝贵经验。 卓立： 你们的第一桶金是如何挖到的？ 何国庆： 第 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recruitment landscape is shifting, with companies increasingly seeking candidates who can quickly adapt and demonstrate immediate value, reflecting a change in hiring logic and expectations [28][29]. Group 1: Recruitment Trends - The demand for entry-level positions has significantly decreased, particularly for fresh graduates in the internet technology sector, with a noted drop in hiring by about 50% compared to previous years [10][12]. - The unemployment rate for the 16-24 age group reached 18.9% in August, marking a new high since the data was first published in December 2023 [9]. - Companies are focusing on high-demand roles in AI and algorithm development, with job postings for AI-related positions increasing by 153% for model development and 56% for application roles [13][19]. Group 2: Job Market Dynamics - There is a notable "two ends rise, middle empty" phenomenon in job demand, where high-skill positions in AI and sales are increasing, while mid-level roles are limited [19][18]. - The recruitment process has become more competitive, with companies raising educational requirements, often preferring candidates with master's degrees even for lower-level positions [24][26]. - The hiring process is now more stringent, with companies expecting new hires to deliver results within a short trial period, reflecting a lower tolerance for error [28][29]. Group 3: Industry-Specific Observations - The hospitality and restaurant sectors are experiencing a shift, with high-value, cost-effective dining options expanding rapidly, while traditional high-end establishments are slowing down [31][30]. - Companies in the manufacturing and service sectors are increasingly hiring based on immediate operational needs rather than long-term potential, leading to a preference for candidates with practical experience [32][35]. - The recruitment strategies vary significantly across different company sizes and sectors, with larger firms often seeking high-caliber talent while smaller companies may prioritize cost-effectiveness [36][37].

点击上图▲了解详情 文 / 巴九灵（微信公众号：吴晓波频道） 9月20号（上周六)，在杭州初秋的晨光里，吴晓波频道超级会员2025年首场线下大课拉开帷幕。 以下是这场大课的核心干货，涵盖趋势判断、行业机会、实战工具与避坑指南，未到现场的同学可以先通过本文感受一番，下一场期待你的现场光 临。 消费行业资深投资人 《当下"低成本生意"的底层逻辑与行业机会》 ▶▷宏观趋势：消费降级下的"顺周期"生意逻辑。 "我们现在面临的消费降级，不是过去几年特殊时期带来的短期波动，而是经济调速换挡的长期趋势——GDP增速放缓、产业结构调整，这种情况 在国内没有先例，只能对标日美过去100年的商业史。"有20多年消费行业投资经验的主讲老师王岑老师一开场，就点出了当下生意的核心前提。 他进一步指出，日本和美国的经济发展史已经证明了这一点。 在经济高速增长结束后，能够存活并发展的企业往往具备几个特征：极致性价比、 精准细分定位、高效率运营。 现场近百位从全国各地赶来的超级会员同学齐聚一堂。他们中有来自成都的餐饮老板，有在上海从事金融的资深投资人士，有广东的品牌代理 商……在上午9点半到下午6点这一整天的白昼里，共赴这场知识的盛宴。 从 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the increasing consumption of seafood in China, driven by rising incomes and improved supply chains, leading to a significant shift in consumer behavior towards seafood, especially in inland regions [2][3][17]. Group 1: Market Trends - From January to July 2023, the national seafood wholesale market transaction volume reached 5.35 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.36%, with western regions like Sichuan and Chongqing also experiencing growth [2][16]. - The consumption of seafood by urban residents increased by 20% from 2013 to 2023, while rural residents saw an 84% increase, indicating a growing preference for seafood across demographics [3][17]. - The opening of fishing seasons in August led to a significant increase in seafood supply, with prices for certain species expected to drop by 20% to 30% [3][5]. Group 2: Regional Consumption Patterns - Coastal provinces have a per capita seafood consumption exceeding 60 kg, while inland provinces like Tibet have consumption as low as 1.23 kg, highlighting a stark regional disparity [13]. - The trend of seafood consumption is shifting westward, with significant increases in sales in western regions during festive seasons [16][17]. Group 3: Supply Chain Innovations - The introduction of strict fishing regulations since 2017 has led to a significant recovery of marine resources, with some species seeing population increases of 20% to 80% [18]. - Technological advancements in aquaculture, such as AI and 5G, have improved the efficiency and sustainability of seafood production [21][22]. - The establishment of a national cold chain logistics network has reduced transportation losses from 20% to below 8%, enhancing the efficiency of seafood distribution [36]. Group 4: Industry Transformation - The seafood industry is evolving from a focus on primary production to a more integrated model that includes processing and value-added products, increasing profitability [26]. - New farming techniques and the development of inland aquaculture are expanding the geographic reach of seafood production, with regions like Xinjiang successfully cultivating various seafood species [23][25].