Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing influx of foreign tourists to China due to relaxed visa policies, highlighting both the opportunities and challenges in accommodating these visitors effectively [2][3][28]. Visa Policy Impact - The National Immigration Administration reported that in the first eight months of this year, the number of foreign visitors entering China under visa exemptions reached 15.89 million, a year-on-year increase of 52.1%, accounting for 62.1% of total foreign arrivals [3]. - Projections suggest that by 2025, the total number of foreign visitors could exceed 35 million, approaching Japan's anticipated 37 million [3]. Challenges Faced by Foreign Tourists - Foreign tourists often encounter difficulties related to accommodation, ticket booking, and payment systems, which can detract from their overall experience [5][6]. - Issues such as the requirement for specific types of identification photos (49mm x 35mm) can lead to confusion and inconvenience for foreigners [8]. - The lack of multilingual guides and the cultural gap in communication further complicate the experience for foreign visitors [9][10]. Systemic Barriers - Foreign residents in China face significant challenges due to the reliance on local identification systems, which limits their access to various services [19][20]. - The payment systems in China are primarily designed around local banking and mobile payment solutions, creating barriers for foreigners who do not have local credit histories [19][20]. Government Initiatives - Recent government policies aim to enhance the travel experience for foreigners, including the introduction of integrated social security cards for foreign workers in Shenyang and innovative products like "Chuangyoutong" and "Mifang Card" in Beijing [26][27]. - The Ministry of Commerce has also expanded the "immediate refund" tax policy to facilitate easier tax refunds for foreign tourists [28]. Conclusion - While there are significant challenges for foreign tourists and residents in China, ongoing improvements in policies and services indicate a commitment to creating a more welcoming environment [22][28].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant political implications of the U.S. government shutdown, emphasizing that it reflects deep partisan divides and the strategic maneuvers of President Trump [2][30][28] - The shutdown is a result of the failure to pass the federal budget due to disagreements between the Republican and Democratic parties, particularly over healthcare funding and immigration policies [11][22][28] - Historical context is provided, noting that the U.S. government has experienced 14 shutdowns in the past, with durations ranging from one day to a record 35 days [9][43] Group 2 - Trump's attitude towards the shutdown has shifted from trying to avoid it to seemingly welcoming it, indicating a strategic use of the situation to achieve political goals [30][32][36] - The article discusses the potential consequences of the shutdown, including economic losses estimated at $400 million per day and significant impacts on federal employees and public services [43][44][42] - The financial markets appear to have absorbed the initial shock of the shutdown, with major indices showing resilience, although concerns may arise if the shutdown extends beyond two weeks [57][58]

中国9月制造业PMI升至49.8% 9月30日，国家统计局公布数据显示，9月份，制造业采购经理指数为49.8%，比上月上升0.4%。从分类指数看，在构成制造业PMI的5个分类指 数中，生产指数和供应商配送时间指数均高于临界点，新订单指数、原材料库存指数和从业人员指数低于临界点。从企业规模看，大型企业PMI 为51.0%，比上月上升0.2%；中型企业PMI为48.8%，比上月下降0.1%；小型企业PMI为48.2%，比上月上升1.6%。 非制造业商务活动指数为50.0%，比上月下降0.3%。分行业看，建筑业商务活动指数为49.3%，比上月上升0.2%；服务业商务活动指数为 50.1%，比上月下降0.4%。综合PMI产出指数为50.6%，比上月上升0.1%。（国家统计局官网） ｜点评｜ 9月国内制造业略有修复，主要是生产端带动，需求端修复依旧缓慢，库存水平有所提升。9月制造业出口低位修复，展现出部分韧 性。制造业生产经营活动预期维持在高位，预期向现实转化的速度偏慢。在反内卷相关政策影响下，制造业原材料购进价格走势持续强于出厂 价格，压缩了企业利润空间。 商务合作▲点击图片 ｜点评｜ 中央支持消费品以旧换新政策的资 ...

点击图片▲立即了解 文 / 巴九灵（微信公众号：吴晓波频道） "原来的好时候一去不复返了。低关税时代、全球贸易大流通的年代过去了。" 华商出海产业联盟理事长卓立在9月26日举办的中国品牌全球化大会上说。 从"把产品卖到海外" 的 "走出去"，到 "让品牌站稳脚跟" 的 "走上去"，再到 "融入本地生态" 的 "走进去"，中国品牌的全球化故事，早已告别 了最初的 "野蛮生长"，迈入了更考验内功的全新阶段。 在此背景下，数百位中国出海企业共聚一堂与宏观经济学家、国际品牌专家、深耕各国的实践企业家等 一同探讨中国品牌在全球寻找新增长的 炙热话题。 我们整理了本次论坛核心内容，带您全面洞悉中国品牌全球化的破局思路与前行路径。 ◎ 二是数字产业化和产业数字化如何协同发展，应用场景开发与原始创新鼓励如何协调推 进； ◎ 三是如何平衡新业态监管确定性与市场灵活性之间的关系； ◎ 四是如何协调新金融革命与新工业革命之间的关系； 《全球化变局中的跨境电商新趋势》 张燕生 中国宏观经济研究院研究员 在新全球化背景下，我很高兴与大家探讨企业出海及跨境电商发展的新趋势。1990年IT革命 催生了全球综合物流革命和全球供应链管理体系， ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of consumer spending as a key driver of economic growth, paralleling production efforts, and highlights a shift in consumer values towards emotional fulfillment and social sustainability in the context of the evolving consumption era in China [2][3][4]. Group 1: Consumption Era Transition - The transition to the "Fifth Consumption Era" is characterized by a shift from material ownership and external success to inner fulfillment, interpersonal connections, and sustainability [3][4]. - Japan's sociologist Miura Noboru's theories on consumption are particularly relevant to understanding China's current consumption landscape, as China exemplifies the characteristics of the "Fourth Consumption Era" more vividly than Japan [4][5]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior Trends - Young consumers are increasingly favoring unique experiences and local culture, as evidenced by rising interest in independent cafes and creative markets during the National Day holiday [6][8]. - The trend of online shopping remains strong, with significant engagement in pre-sales for events like Double Eleven, indicating a blend of online and offline shopping experiences [7][8]. Group 3: Space and Community Integration - There is a growing demand for community-oriented spaces that foster social connections, with shopping centers evolving into lifestyle hubs that offer more than just retail [12][14]. - The concept of "living centers" is emerging, where commercial spaces integrate social functions, enhancing community engagement and emotional connections [14][16]. Group 4: Vintage and Sustainable Consumption - The rise of vintage clothing and second-hand markets reflects a cultural shift towards sustainability and emotional attachment to items, with the vintage resale market expected to grow significantly [20][22]. - The increasing popularity of vintage stores and the second-hand economy indicates a broader acceptance of "slow fashion" and a desire for unique, meaningful purchases [20][24]. Group 5: Silver Economy and Intergenerational Connections - The silver economy presents significant opportunities, with over 300 million elderly individuals in China, many of whom have unmet needs and limited access to modern technology [28][30]. - Innovative intergenerational initiatives, such as children's dining programs in nursing homes, are being explored to enhance emotional connections and drive consumption among the elderly [32][34]. Group 6: Emotional Consumption and Loneliness - The concept of "loneliness economy" is gaining traction, where individuals are willing to spend on experiences that address emotional gaps, reflecting a broader societal trend [38][39]. - The rise of companionship services and emotional consumption highlights the evolving nature of consumer needs, with brands needing to respond to these deeper human desires [43][44].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of identifying wealth opportunities for ordinary individuals in the current economic climate, focusing on both entrepreneurial ventures and investment strategies [2][32]. Group 1: Online Workshops - The online workshops are designed to explore two main paths for personal wealth growth: earning through work and earning through investments [5][6]. - The first workshop, led by investor Wang Cen, discusses low-cost business opportunities suitable for ordinary people, particularly in a slowing economy [6][12]. - Key insights include the CHEES model for market scanning, which focuses on five consumer needs: affordability, health, emotional connection, entertainment, and lifestyle [7][11]. - Three high-potential business sectors are highlighted: - The "无人经济" (无人自助娱乐,无人情趣用品, and 无人自助健身房) which leverages technology for cost efficiency and convenience [9]. - The second-hand market, particularly in restaurant equipment and luxury goods, which addresses information asymmetry in high-value asset transactions [9]. - The light model for small shops, emphasizing "single product hits" and operational efficiency with investment thresholds between 150,000 to 500,000 yuan [10]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - The second workshop, led by economist Zhu Zhenxin, focuses on core investment logic and market valuation principles for the A-share market [12][17]. - Five core principles for understanding market valuation are presented: - Profitability is prioritized over asset value, with a focus on cash flow generation [13]. - Long-term stability is favored over short-term performance [14]. - Growth potential is more valuable than current performance [15]. - Macro factors should be considered over micro factors in investment decisions [16]. - Focus on leading companies with competitive advantages in a differentiated market [17]. Group 3: Offline Practical Course - An offline course held on September 20 in Hangzhou aimed to bridge theory and practice, featuring real-world case studies from successful entrepreneurs [19][21]. - Key highlights include: - Wang Cen's analysis of three high-potential sectors using the CHEES model, including the "银发经济" (silver economy) and its opportunities in senior care and health products [22]. - The "宠物经济" (pet economy) focusing on high-margin services like pet funerals, showcasing a successful case with annual revenue of 230 million yuan [22]. - The community dining model exemplified by "元气考拉," which operates as a second kitchen with a focus on efficiency and low investment [25]. Group 4: Membership Value - The membership program offers a comprehensive growth support system, combining online learning, offline engagement, and community networking [27][32]. - Members have access to over 180 courses, including ongoing updates on business insights and investment trends [28][31]. - The program aims to provide a systematic understanding of wealth generation and practical methodologies for implementation [33].

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of China's K visa marks the beginning of a global competition for technology talent between China and the United States, particularly in the context of tightening U.S. visa policies for foreign tech workers [2][23]. Summary by Sections K Visa Overview - The K visa is a new visa category introduced on August 7, 2023, and will officially take effect on October 1, 2023. It has gained significant attention following extensive coverage by Indian media [4][8]. - The K visa is designed for foreign young talents, particularly in STEM fields, and does not require employer sponsorship, making it more accessible compared to other visa types like R and Z visas [11][12]. Characteristics of K Visa - The K visa application process is simplified, allowing individuals to apply independently without needing a domestic employer's invitation [11]. - It primarily targets talents in STEM disciplines, aligning with the focus of the U.S. H-1B visa [11]. - The K visa supports various activities, including research, education, entrepreneurship, and cultural exchange, unlike the Z visa, which is limited to employment [11]. Potential Impact and Concerns - There are uncertainties regarding the specific criteria for "renowned universities" and the definition of "youth talent," which could lead to concerns about the quality and integrity of applicants [12][14]. - Predictions suggest that the K visa may attract four main groups: South Asian IT professionals, graduates from the Middle East and Africa, returning students from Western universities, and digital nomads [15]. Global Context and Competition - The K visa is seen as a potential alternative to the U.S. H-1B visa, especially as the latter's application fees have significantly increased, causing concern among Indian tech workers [17][20]. - The tightening of talent visa policies in Western countries has prompted Indian professionals to seek new opportunities, making the K visa an attractive option [19][21]. Strategic Significance - The K visa's introduction is part of China's broader strategy to attract global tech talent, particularly from the Chinese diaspora, which has been increasingly returning to China [24][36]. - The competition for STEM talent is critical for enhancing China's innovation capabilities, as the country aims to improve its standing in global technology sectors [37].

Group 1: K Visa for Young Scientific Talent - China has introduced a new K visa to promote the exchange and cooperation of young scientific talent, which will provide more convenience in terms of entry frequency, validity period, and stay duration compared to existing visa categories [2][3] - The K visa targets foreign young scientific talents who have graduated from renowned universities or research institutions in STEM fields, and it does not require applicants to have secured employment in China prior to application [2][3] Group 2: Development of Intelligent Equipment and Systems - Six Chinese government departments have released a plan to boost the mechanical industry by focusing on the development of intelligent equipment and systems, integrating emerging technologies such as AI and quantum technology [4][5] - The policy aims to create a favorable environment for innovation and collaboration between AI companies and traditional industries, enhancing productivity and market expansion [5] Group 3: Industrial Profit Trends - From January to August, China's industrial enterprises achieved a total profit of 46,929.7 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.9%, and a significant profit increase of 20.4% in August alone [6][7] - The equipment manufacturing sector showed a profit growth of 7.2%, while raw material manufacturing profits increased by 22.1%, indicating a recovery in the industrial sector [6][7] Group 4: Housing Fund Policy in Guangzhou - Guangzhou has expanded its housing fund withdrawal policy to include second-hand homes, allowing residents to use their housing fund for down payments, which is expected to stimulate the real estate market [8][9] - This policy aims to reduce the financial burden on homebuyers and promote a healthy cycle in the housing market, particularly in response to previous market adjustments [8][9] Group 5: Robotics Industry Developments - UBTECH has secured contracts worth 430 million yuan for its humanoid robots, indicating strong demand in the robotics sector, particularly from government and educational institutions [10][11] - Despite the growth in orders, UBTECH faces challenges in the consumer market due to higher pricing compared to competitors, which may affect its overall profitability [11] Group 6: U.S. Stock Market Trends - The proportion of stocks held by American households has reached a historical high of 45%, driven by rising stock prices and increased participation in the stock market [14] - The performance of the stock market is closely tied to household wealth, raising concerns about potential economic impacts if the market enters a downturn [14][15] Group 7: AI Industry Insights - The rise of AI technology has been a significant driver of the current bull market in the U.S., but there are concerns about the sustainability of this growth and the potential for a market correction similar to the dot-com bubble [15]

点击上图▲立即报名 文 / 巴九灵（微信公众号：吴晓波频道） 左右滑动 ▲ 查看更多 现将这些心得汇编，既是对大连课程的回望，也希望能为更多企业经营者提供参考，助大家读懂周期、找准方向，在浪潮中稳健前行。 付祥朋 以周期为尺 破局企业经营迷思 山东卓健医疗科技股份有限公司 董事长 吴晓波激荡讲堂 激荡班 此次大连激荡讲堂的学习，让我对企业战略与周期的关系有了全新认知。波格一般战略理论中，总成本、差异化、专一化三大方向点明企业竞争 核心选择——盲目模仿只会沦为 "鸡肋"，专一化需以技术极致与足够市场容量为支撑。 "谈战略不谈周期，就像航海不看潮汐。"9月19日—9月21日，"2025・吴晓波激荡讲堂" 秋季课《周期与中国企业战略范式》在大连开讲。 这是激荡讲堂开办三年来听课人数最多的一次，有连续三年参与的"老学员"、携伴共学的 "团体学员"，还有从澳大利亚远道而来的求知者，不 同年龄、地域的同频者相聚，碰撞思想、探寻企业发展答案。 课程由吴晓波老师主讲，他以鲜活案例拆解宏观波动、产业、企业三大周期，把复杂周期规律转化为可落地的应对方法。 张伟俊老师通过沉浸式案例演练，带领大家深度探寻周期中的战略选择，为企业穿越 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ride-hailing industry has evolved from merely transporting passengers to becoming a super infrastructure that reassembles "scattered time, vehicles, and labor" into a cohesive employment reservoir, significantly impacting various demographics and employment patterns [2][6]. Group 1: Employment Dynamics - As of 2024, the number of licensed ride-hailing drivers in China reached 7.483 million, a 159% increase from 2020 [2]. - The average age of ride-hailing drivers is around 40 years, with a notable trend of increasing participation from middle-aged and female drivers [6]. - Approximately 80% of drivers face cash flow pressures, and over 1.05 million female drivers rely solely on ride-hailing income [6][10]. Group 2: Income and Economic Impact - The average monthly income for ride-hailing drivers is 7,623 yuan, with those in first-tier cities earning an average of 11,557 yuan per month [8]. - The ride-hailing industry serves as a buffer for employment, particularly for those affected by industrial upgrades, with nearly 70% of surveyed drivers coming from traditional blue-collar sectors [6][10]. Group 3: Platform Dynamics and Challenges - The growth of drivers has outpaced the increase in ride-hailing demand, with a 38.3% rise in average monthly orders compared to the 159% increase in driver numbers since 2020 [27]. - The average daily order volume for ride-hailing drivers in cities like Suzhou and Zhuhai is low, leading to reduced earnings for many drivers [27]. - The platform's commission structure is a significant concern for drivers, with an average commission of 15.3% reported, although many drivers overestimate their commission rates [14][17]. Group 4: Future Directions and Strategies - The industry may not return to previous high-earning conditions due to increased competition and a larger number of drivers [28]. - Future strategies may involve refined operations, such as improving order efficiency and diversifying service offerings to meet consumer demands [30][35]. - Platforms are increasingly focusing on enhancing labor welfare and transparency to build trust with drivers, including initiatives like the "Transparent Bill" feature [35][36].