吴晓波频道
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 iPhone Air在华首发遇冷,金价创12年来最大单日跌幅 | 财经日日评
 吴晓波频道· 2025-10-23 00:30
 Economic Indicators - In the first three quarters of 2025, the national per capita disposable income reached 32,509 yuan, with a nominal growth of 5.1% and a real growth of 5.2% after adjusting for price factors [2] - Urban residents had a per capita disposable income of 42,991 yuan, with a nominal growth of 4.4% and a real growth of 4.5%, while rural residents had 17,686 yuan, with a nominal growth of 5.7% and a real growth of 6.0% [2] - The income gap between regions remains significant, with high-income provinces like Shanghai and Beijing exceeding 65,000 yuan, while provinces like Gansu and Xinjiang are below 21,000 yuan, indicating a disparity of over three times [3]   Gold Market - On October 21, international gold prices experienced their largest single-day drop in 12 years, with spot gold falling by 5.31% to $4,124.36 per ounce [4] - The decline in gold prices is attributed to a lack of support for the previous rapid increase, driven more by market sentiment than fundamentals, as geopolitical tensions ease and trade relations improve [4][5] - Short-term volatility in gold prices is expected to remain high, while the long-term outlook will depend on the global economic recovery or recession [5]   Apple iPhone Launch - The launch of iPhone Air in mainland China saw a lukewarm response, with no long queues at major retail stores, contrasting sharply with the global launch of the iPhone 17 series [6] - The iPhone Air's pricing strategy at 7,999 yuan is considered high for Chinese consumers, and its exclusive support for eSIM technology may hinder adoption [6] - Despite the slow start for iPhone Air, the overall performance of the iPhone 17 series has been strong, with a 14% increase in sales compared to the previous generation [7]   OpenAI Browser Launch - OpenAI launched its AI-driven web browser, ChatGPT Atlas, which allows users to interact with ChatGPT while browsing [8] - The browser is seen as a strategic move to enhance OpenAI's software ecosystem and compete directly with Google's Chrome, which has integrated AI features [8][9] - While Atlas offers similar functionalities to Chrome, it may face challenges in competing due to the established ecosystem of Chrome and its extensive plugin support [9]   BYD's Strategic Partnership - BYD has entered a strategic partnership with Japan's AEON to establish sales points for electric vehicles in approximately 30 commercial facilities across Japan by 2025 [10] - The partnership aims to make BYD electric vehicles available at a starting price of around 2 million yen (approximately 94,000 yuan) [10] - Despite previous marketing efforts, BYD has faced challenges in gaining market share in Japan, highlighting the need for a more localized approach to consumer preferences [11][12]   Pop Mart's Revenue Growth - Pop Mart reported a 245%-250% year-on-year increase in overall revenue for Q3 2025, with significant growth in both domestic and international markets [13] - The company's online sales growth outpaced offline sales, and its popular Labubu plush toy contributed to a substantial revenue increase in the first half of 2025 [13] - To combat the secondary market for its products, Pop Mart has implemented strategies such as increasing production and offering online pre-orders [14]   Stock Trading App Usage - In September 2025, the monthly active user count for securities apps reached 175 million, marking a 0.74% increase from the previous month and a 9.73% year-on-year growth [15] - The number of new A-share accounts opened in September was 2.9372 million, a 60.73% increase year-on-year, indicating heightened interest in the stock market [15] - The rise in younger investors suggests that traditional brokerage firms may need to adapt to remain competitive in the evolving market landscape [16]   Market Performance - On October 22, the stock market experienced slight fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing down 0.07% [17] - Market activity was characterized by a decrease in trading volume, with a focus on sectors like deep earth economy and banking, while battery stocks faced declines [17][18] - Anticipation of upcoming trade negotiations and policy meetings may influence market sentiment and trading activity in the near term [18]
 日本第一位女首相:为何右翼偏爱女性领导人?
 吴晓波频道· 2025-10-22 00:41
 Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the historic election of Sanna Takashi as Japan's first female Prime Minister, highlighting the challenges she faces in her leadership role amidst political turmoil and economic issues [2][6].   Political Landscape - Sanna Takashi was elected as the first female president of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) on October 3, 2023, and subsequently became Prime Minister [8]. - The ruling coalition with Komeito collapsed shortly after her election, creating a precarious political situation for her administration [10][15]. - The LDP has faced significant public dissatisfaction due to corruption scandals, particularly the "black money scandal," which has eroded its support [11][12].   Challenges Ahead - Takashi's leadership is tested by the need to form new alliances to maintain a parliamentary majority after losing Komeito's support [16]. - The opposition parties are attempting to unite against the LDP, posing a threat to Takashi's government stability [15][18]. - The LDP's recent electoral performance has been poor, with the party losing its majority in the House of Councillors, further complicating Takashi's position [11].   Economic Policies - Takashi's economic strategy largely inherits "Abenomics," focusing on fiscal expansion, monetary easing, and structural reforms, with an additional emphasis on tax cuts [25][37]. - She faces the challenge of rising inflation, which complicates the implementation of aggressive monetary policies without alienating voters [37]. - The market reacted positively to her election, with the Nikkei 225 index reaching historical highs, but the yen is under depreciation pressure [37].   Gender Representation - Takashi's election is seen as a significant step towards gender equality in Japan, where female representation in the House of Representatives is only about 16% [28]. - She has committed to increasing female representation in her cabinet, including appointing the first female finance minister [28].   Diplomatic Relations - Takashi's foreign policy will be scrutinized, especially regarding her relationships with neighboring countries and the United States, particularly with Trump expected to visit Japan soon [36][37]. - Her right-wing stance may complicate Japan's relations with countries that suffered from its wartime actions, adding uncertainty to her diplomatic agenda [35].
 对话黄兆华:藏在增长与挫折里的中国企业出海启示 | 卓立出海谈
 吴晓波频道· 2025-10-22 00:41
 Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the successful international expansion of LiuGong Group, which has achieved significant overseas revenue growth, accounting for 46.88% of its total revenue, amounting to 13 billion [3].   Group 1: LiuGong's International Strategy - LiuGong Group began its overseas expansion in 2002 and has developed a comprehensive "LiuGong Model" for others to reference [3]. - The company’s overseas business grew from 200 million to 4.2 billion, showcasing a remarkable growth trajectory [4]. - The importance of building a robust internal support system to sustain rapid international growth is emphasized, including logistics, financing, and service systems [8].   Group 2: Challenges and Lessons Learned - A critical lesson learned was the importance of not introducing untested products to overseas markets, which resulted in significant financial losses [9]. - The article discusses the challenges faced during economic downturns, particularly in the mining sector, which severely impacted operations [13][14]. - Cost-cutting measures were necessary during tough times, but the rigid cost structure in Europe made layoffs difficult, leading to a focus on finding new business opportunities [15][16].   Group 3: Characteristics of Successful Leaders - Successful leaders in international markets should possess a winner's mindset, resilience, and inclusivity to manage diverse teams effectively [18][19]. - The article stresses the need for clear guidelines and control from headquarters while allowing local teams to operate within defined boundaries [20][21].   Group 4: Strategic Directions for Companies - Companies looking to expand internationally should first assess market demand, identify typical customers, and ensure product-market fit [23]. - The article suggests a dual approach of external market analysis and internal capability assessment to ensure alignment [24].   Group 5: Evolution of Chinese Manufacturing - The narrative emphasizes that the evolution of Chinese manufacturing from mere production to innovation and quality is driven by capable individuals willing to take risks and learn from mistakes [24][25]. - The transformation from "Made in China" to "Created in China" reflects a collective effort by Chinese entrepreneurs to enhance global competitiveness [26].
 高市早苗当选日本女首相,宁德时代前三季净利490亿 | 财经日日评
 吴晓波频道· 2025-10-22 00:41
 Group 1: Political Developments in Japan - Takashi Sawa was elected as Japan's first female Prime Minister, winning 125 votes in the second round of the Senate election and 237 votes in the first round of the House of Representatives [2] - Sawa is a proponent of expansionary fiscal policies and plans to increase defense spending, which may delay the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike plans [2][3] - The new government may face internal challenges in policy implementation due to its cross-party coalition [3]   Group 2: Semiconductor Industry and China-Netherlands Relations - The Netherlands is seeking dialogue with China to resolve the deadlock surrounding Nexperia Semiconductor, which has implications for global automotive chip supply chains [4][5] - The Dutch government's intervention in Nexperia's affairs was prompted by U.S. pressure and aims to prevent the transfer of business and intellectual property out of Europe [4] - The intervention has disrupted normal production and created uncertainty in the global automotive manufacturing sector [5]   Group 3: Real Estate Market in Shanghai - Shanghai's Xuhui Riverside area set a new record for land prices, with China Overseas acquiring a plot for 44.65 billion yuan, resulting in a floor price of 148,500 yuan per square meter [6] - The new home sales in Shanghai showed a significant increase in September, with a 35.9% month-on-month rise [6] - The cancellation of housing type controls in Shanghai's land auction indicates a shift in real estate market regulation, allowing market demand to dictate new home sizes [7]   Group 4: Smart Glasses Market Growth - The global smart glasses market is projected to reach 4.065 million units shipped in the first half of 2025, marking a 64.2% year-on-year increase [8] - Meta's recent launch of Ray-Ban Display smart glasses has generated significant consumer interest, indicating market potential [8] - Despite initial enthusiasm, challenges such as limited battery life and high prices remain barriers to mainstream adoption [9]   Group 5: CATL Financial Performance - CATL reported a revenue of 283.072 billion yuan for the first three quarters, a 9.28% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 49.034 billion yuan, up 36.2% [10] - The company's cash flow from operating activities was 80.66 billion yuan, reflecting a 19.6% increase [10] - CATL's profit growth is constrained by near-full production capacity and the need for new capacity expansion [11]   Group 6: Lithium Carbonate Prices and Inventory Pressure - Lithium carbonate prices have started to recover, but CATL's battery prices have not followed suit, as the company focuses on maintaining product competitiveness [12] - The increasing share of energy storage products in CATL's sales has led to longer payment cycles and inventory pressure [12]   Group 7: Cambrian Technology's Fundraising and Performance - Cambrian Technology completed a nearly 4 billion yuan private placement, raising approximately 3.985 billion yuan after expenses [13] - The company reported a 1332.52% year-on-year increase in third-quarter revenue, reaching 1.727 billion yuan, and a net profit of 567 million yuan, marking a turnaround [13] - Despite significant revenue growth, Cambrian's valuation remains high compared to global competitors, raising concerns about its long-term performance [14]   Group 8: Kering's Sale of Beauty Business to L'Oréal - Kering announced the sale of its beauty division to L'Oréal for 4 billion euros, expected to close in the first half of 2026 [15] - The sale is part of Kering's strategy to reduce debt, which has reached 95 billion euros, amid declining performance in its core luxury brands [15][16] - L'Oréal aims to strengthen its position in the high-end fragrance market through this acquisition, while Kering focuses on its core business [16]   Group 9: Stock Market Performance - The stock market experienced a rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.36% to 3916.33 points, and the ChiNext Index increasing over 3% [17] - Market sentiment has shifted positively due to easing tensions regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict and expectations of supportive real estate policies [18] - The market remains volatile, with significant trading volume and a mix of sector performances, indicating ongoing investor interest [18]
 前三季度GDP增长5.2%,联合国面临破产危机 | 财经日日评
 吴晓波频道· 2025-10-21 00:21
 Economic Overview - China's GDP for the first three quarters reached 10,150.36 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.2% [2] - The growth rates for the three sectors were: primary industry at 3.8%, secondary industry at 4.9%, and tertiary industry at 5.4% [2] - The retail sales of consumer goods totaled 3,658.77 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 4.5% [2] - The per capita disposable income of residents was 32,509 yuan, with a nominal growth of 5.1% [2]   Real Estate Market - In September, the housing prices in major cities showed a month-on-month decline, with first-tier cities down by 1% [4] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 3,715.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5% [4] - Real estate development investment fell by 13.9% year-on-year, with residential investment down by 12.9% [4][5]   Monetary Policy - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remained unchanged for five consecutive months, with the one-year LPR at 3.00% and the five-year LPR at 3.50% [6] - The central bank has not indicated any plans for interest rate cuts, focusing instead on liquidity management [6][7]   Consumer Spending Initiatives - Various provinces, including Hunan and Zhejiang, are launching new rounds of consumption vouchers totaling 1 billion yuan to stimulate consumer spending [10] - The focus of these vouchers is on daily necessities, aiming to enhance consumer habits rather than just providing one-time subsidies [11]   Technology Development - Huawei is set to release HarmonyOS 6, which integrates AI capabilities into the system, marking a significant advancement in its operating system development [12] - The new framework aims to enhance cross-device collaboration and improve user experience [12][13]   Fund Market Trends - As of August, the total scale of money market funds reached approximately 14.81 trillion yuan, reflecting a growth of 1.2 trillion yuan from the end of last year [14] - The decline in deposit rates has made money market funds an attractive option for savers, despite a decrease in their yields [14][15]
 双十一特惠,超级会员买1年送1年,立省2980元
 吴晓波频道· 2025-10-21 00:21
点击上图▲了解详情 10月21日至11月20日,是今年超级会员双11活动的时间段,在此期间加入,可享受 以下福利: 1.买1年得2年会员时长。 2.赠送四本实体定制版手册(分别为股票、保险、基金和配置)。 点此参与活动,立即锁定福利>> 文 / 巴九灵(微信公众号:吴晓波频道) 进入十月,2025年也悄然来到了最后一个季度。 不知你是否也下意识地开始查看各种"进度条":年底要完成的项目、年初立下的目标、个人的账本……我们都习惯在开始时全力规划,在结束时细 细盘点。 站在这个承前启后的节点回望,你是否也在思考: ◎ 2025年拉扯的大盘,飞速切换的核心赛道,自己手里的基金股票,是该加仓还是止损? ◎ 工作到了瓶颈期,"第二收入曲线"说了很久,却不知从何下手? ◎ 平时学了不少东西,但就像散落的珠子, 串不成一条有价值的项链 ,关键时刻还是不会用。 我们都越来越觉得,无论是 赚钱的本事 ,还是 用钱生钱的智慧 ,都不能靠零散的学习,而是需要一个 靠谱的体系 和 持续的实践环境 。 今天,我们就来聊聊,吴晓波频道的"超级会员"体系,希望能帮你在变化中找到一些 属于自己的确定感 。 超级会员是什么? 简单来说,超级会 ...
 没那么多“元气老人”,银发经济的主力是80后
 吴晓波频道· 2025-10-21 00:21
 Core Viewpoint - The "silver economy" in China, currently valued at 7 trillion, is projected to exceed 10 trillion by 2026, becoming the third major pillar of the economy, alongside real estate and automotive industries [2][4].   Group 1: Current State of the Silver Economy - The occupancy rate of elderly care institutions is alarmingly low, with a national average of 58% for public and affordable beds, and only 45% in first-tier cities like Beijing [3][8]. - The number of registered caregivers has decreased by 12% year-on-year, with each caregiver responsible for 8-10 elderly individuals, leading to a decline in service quality [3][9]. - The financial burden of elderly care is increasing, with care costs rising faster than pension increases, resulting in a significant affordability gap for the elderly [9][12].   Group 2: Economic Disparities Among the Elderly - Over 80% of elderly individuals cannot afford the average monthly cost of care facilities, which exceeds 6,611 yuan in Beijing, while the average pension is only 4,300 yuan [9][12]. - The income disparity is stark, with only 5% of retirees receiving an average pension of 6,243 yuan, while 55% receive an average of just 223 yuan per month [12][15]. - The purchasing power of the elderly is significantly limited, with many unable to participate in the silver economy due to financial constraints [12][16].   Group 3: Future Potential of the Silver Economy - The true potential of the silver economy may emerge from the 75 and 80 generations in the next 10-15 years, who are expected to have more diverse consumption patterns [22][25]. - The current silver economy is characterized by a lack of diversity in consumption, primarily focused on traditional sectors like healthcare and tourism [20][21]. - Future consumption trends may shift as the income and consumption peaks align, potentially leading to increased spending among the elderly [21][22].   Group 4: Challenges and Considerations - The current economic model for elderly care is under strain, with many institutions facing closure due to unsustainable occupancy rates and rising costs [3][4]. - The silver economy is susceptible to misconceptions and oversimplifications, often leading to unrealistic expectations about elderly spending power [20][25]. - Companies entering the silver economy must anticipate future trends and adapt to the evolving needs and preferences of the upcoming elderly demographic [25].
 重磅会议开幕:关于“十五五”规划,我们列了五大主线
 吴晓波频道· 2025-10-20 01:17
点击上图▲立即收听 "' 十五五 ' 是迈向 2035 现代化的关键五年,也是中国经济高质量发展的关键节点。 " 文 / 巴九灵(微信公众号:吴晓波频道) 自今日开始,连续四天,重磅会议开幕: 10 月 20 日至 23 日,党的二十届四中全会在北京召开。 简单而言,这场会议的主要内容,就是 审议并通过 " 十五五 " 规划, 为未来 5 年的中国社会经济发展指引发展方向。 "十四五"时期,我国 GDP 年均增长 5.5% ,跃升至 134 万亿人民币;人均 GDP 从 2020 年的 10632 美元提升至 2024 年的 13445 美元;科技创 新实力显著提升, 2024 年研发经费投入 3.6 万亿人民币,稳居世界第二 , 专利申请与授权量全球第一 ; 国内国际双循环质量稳步提升;服务 贸易规模稳居世界第二,货物贸易第一大国的地位更加稳固。 基建强国 参照以往, 在会议结束之后 不久 , 我们 就 将会收到一份约 2 万字左右,更加详细版本的《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五 年规划的建议》。 "十五五"规划的全称是 中华人民共和国国民经济和社会发展五年规划纲要 ,自 1953 年开始制定 ...
 把成本变成复利,你应该这样开会
 吴晓波频道· 2025-10-20 01:17
 Core Insights - The article highlights a significant "knowledge black hole" in Chinese enterprises, where a vast amount of valuable insights and decisions from meetings are lost, leading to asset depletion [2] - It emphasizes the importance of AI tools in capturing, reconstructing, and extracting value from meeting data, transforming it into a digital asset that can be reused and valued over time [5][7]   Group 1: Efficiency in Information Capture - In a comparative experiment, traditional meeting recording methods struggle with accuracy and completeness, especially in multi-language environments, while AI tools ensure the integrity of captured information [3] - The efficiency of AI tools in capturing meeting content lays the foundation for subsequent value development [3]   Group 2: Logical Reconstruction Capabilities - During brainstorming sessions, traditional recording often leads to fragmented ideas, whereas AI tools can summarize and visually present key points, facilitating clearer pathways from divergent thoughts [4] - AI's role extends beyond mere recording to logical reconstruction, enhancing the clarity and utility of meeting outcomes [4]   Group 3: Value Extraction and Insights - In data-heavy review meetings, traditional methods fail to capture data relationships, while AI tools can automatically extract key data, generate comparative charts, and link action items to responsible parties [5] - The ability of AI to penetrate data for insights represents a significant evolution in knowledge asset management [5]   Group 4: Knowledge Asset Integration - The article discusses how companies like Xiaopeng Motors have significantly increased their meeting documentation, with 160,000 meeting minutes generated in 2024, rising to over 630,000 by mid-2025 [5] - The integration of these meeting records through AI solutions like Feishu aims to facilitate secure and efficient knowledge flow within organizations, addressing the "last mile" of knowledge assetization [7]   Group 5: Transforming Meeting Costs into Assets - The article argues that effective meetings should focus on decision-making, idea generation, and consensus building, yet many organizations still face challenges of disorganization and forgetfulness [7] - AI tools are transforming the "silent costs" of meetings into fertile ground for innovation and growth, allowing discussions to become reusable and value-generating digital assets [7][8]
 那个紧挨着牛顿和爱因斯坦的中国人走了
 吴晓波频道· 2025-10-19 00:34
点击上图▲立即收听 " 杨振宁后来多次表示,他一生最大的贡献,是帮助中国人克服了自己不如人的心理。 " 文 / 巴九灵(微信公众号:吴晓波频道) 巨星陨落。 诺贝尔物理学奖得主、中国科学院院士、著名物理学家杨振宁因病于2025年10月18日在北京逝世,享年103岁。 截止发稿,杨振宁生前履职的清华大学、西湖大学等高校的官网变成黑白色,十余所国内高校以及校长们发表文章,缅怀这位物理学泰斗。 著名数学家丘成桐发文悼念,希望未来设立一个以杨振宁命名的奖项来纪念他。中国的网友发帖追思,还有一些人冒雨来到杨振宁位于安徽的旧 居,表达哀思。 杨振宁因对基础物理的变革性贡献而闻名于世,其工作为理解物质世界提供了基石。晚年,怀着学者的担当和赤子之心,他回到中国,将生命最 后的时光投入于推动中国科学研究与教育。他拓展了人类认知系统的边界,也是一座连接中国与世界科学界的重要桥梁。 科学家 1922年10月1日,杨振宁出生在安徽合肥。在他出生10个月后,担任中学教员的父亲杨武之,获取了赴美公费留学的名额。出国前拍摄的家庭照 片上,杨振宁坐在母亲的腿上,穿着长袍马褂的父亲站在一旁。 6年后,父亲穿着西装领带归来,又受聘到清华大学数学 ...