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疯涨的“股票代币化”
吴晓波频道· 2025-07-21 00:37
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the emerging competition between the U.S. and China regarding Real World Assets (RWA) and stablecoins, highlighting the significance of the "Genius Act" signed by former President Trump, which aims to solidify the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency and regulate the stablecoin market [3][4][32]. Group 1: RWA and Stablecoins - RWA stands for Real World Asset, which refers to the process of tokenizing physical assets like real estate, commodities, and bonds using blockchain technology [13][14]. - The RWA market is projected to reach $16.1 trillion by 2030, accounting for 10% of global GDP, with current RWA assets (excluding stablecoins) amounting to $245.5 billion [18][20]. - The introduction of RWA technology allows for the digitization and fragmentation of physical assets, enhancing liquidity and accessibility for ordinary investors [22][27]. Group 2: Regulatory Developments - The "Genius Act" marks a significant step in U.S. stablecoin regulation, aiming to maintain the dollar's dominance in the global financial system [7][32]. - Hong Kong's "Stablecoin Ordinance," effective August 1, represents a competing regulatory framework that could challenge U.S. dominance in the stablecoin space [8][30]. - The U.S. Treasury Secretary has projected that the stablecoin market could grow to $3.7 trillion by 2030, emphasizing the economic benefits of stablecoins [31][32]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Challenges - Robinhood's introduction of stock tokenization has garnered attention, but it faces challenges such as liquidity issues and potential market manipulation [17][41]. - Regulatory bodies are scrutinizing Robinhood's practices, raising concerns about the distinction between real equity and derivatives in tokenized stocks [42][46]. - The article warns that while RWA technology offers efficiency, it also opens the door to potential illegal activities due to regulatory gaps [47]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Financial institutions in mainland China are accelerating their efforts to engage with the RWA and stablecoin markets, with many obtaining licenses to provide related services [48]. - The competition between the U.S. and China in the RWA space is intensifying, with the potential for significant shifts in the global financial landscape [50][51].
中国还是不是水大鱼大?
吴晓波频道· 2025-07-21 00:37
立即点击 ▲ 观看视频 我最近去调研人形机器人, 在那里看到了很多泡沫,但很可能10年后这里却出现很大的鱼,现 在冲进去的人 有可能等不到那一天,但这迟早会出一条大鱼。 但另外也有一些人认为他们已经没机会了,他们认为我们已经掌握了技术,掌握了制造能力, 掌握了电机的核心能力、创新能力, 大模型数据、采集能力等等。 所以这个问题最终还是要回到第一个问题: 中国这个大水塘还是不是水大鱼大? 第二,在这个 大的海域里面,你在 哪一片水域看到了浪潮? 这是我觉得做企业观察最核心的问题。 所以我觉得,每一个人都是 时代的人, 也是这些猎手、这些渔夫,他们 再造 了这片 海域 , 让它变得与众不同。 所以我觉得 既有时代的企业家,也有企业家的一个时代。 我觉得任何一个国家获得一个商业,最大的问题是:有没有足够大的 市场 ? 如果有足够大的市场,那么一定会出现那些最勇敢的猎人和渔夫。如果里面的鱼已经不见了, 或者鱼塘变小了,那些勇敢者要么离开了,要么就不会再诞生。 ...
外卖大战不够打了,开打酒店和机票
吴晓波频道· 2025-07-19 16:53
Core Viewpoint - The emergence of new consumption trends is driving the deep integration of the hotel and travel industry with content ecosystems and local life services, providing opportunities for internet giants with traffic, technology, and cross-scenario operational capabilities to penetrate the market [1][49]. Market Dynamics - The online travel agency (OTA) market is experiencing significant growth, with domestic travel spending expected to reach 5.75 trillion yuan in 2024, a 17% year-on-year increase, marking a historical high [11]. - Major OTAs like Ctrip and Tongcheng Yilong are benefiting from this growth, with Ctrip's revenue projected to grow by approximately 20% and net profit margin increasing by 72% in 2024 [12]. - The competitive landscape is relatively consolidated, with the "Ctrip system" (Ctrip, Tongcheng, and Qunar) holding over 70% market share, while Meituan leads the second tier with 13% [13]. Competitive Strategies - Internet giants are leveraging their existing ecosystems to enhance user engagement and drive traffic to their travel services. For instance, JD.com is focusing on hotel supply chain pain points and targeting mid-to-low tier cities [26][27]. - Alibaba is integrating Ele.me and Fliggy into its e-commerce group to enhance user stickiness through high-frequency shopping and local services [28]. - Meituan's travel business is a significant profit contributor, maintaining a profit margin close to 40%, while Douyin is utilizing its massive traffic advantage to promote travel through live streaming and promotional pricing [30]. Challenges for Traditional Players - Traditional hotel businesses are facing challenges due to oversupply and declining prices, particularly in the high-end segment, leading to a shift in focus from raising room rates to increasing occupancy [35]. - Hotels are increasingly reliant on OTAs for traffic while seeking to escape high commission fees, resulting in a split in their approach to new platforms [36][37]. - The entry of new players like JD.com with zero-commission strategies is attractive to smaller businesses, while larger brands are attempting to reduce their dependence on OTAs [38]. Consumer Trends - The travel consumption landscape is evolving, with younger generations and older adults showing increased travel frequency and spending, indicating a shift towards high-frequency, short-term travel experiences [45][46]. - The Z generation and the silver-haired demographic are emerging as significant consumer groups, with the 61-65 age group showing a 58% increase in travel orders and a preference for high-star hotels [47]. Conclusion - The ongoing competition among major platforms is no longer just about traffic and subsidies but has evolved into an ecosystem and model competition, with various life services being integrated into a comprehensive offering [33].
文科大批裁撤后,理科的消亡也开始了
吴晓波频道· 2025-07-19 00:04
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the historical evolution of job roles, emphasizing the shift from repetitive tasks to creative and empathetic roles, and from single skills to interdisciplinary thinking [1][47]. Group 1: Popular Majors and Employment Crisis - In 2023, the top 20 popular undergraduate majors are predominantly in STEM fields, with electrical engineering and automation leading with a heat score of 82,000 [2][3]. - Despite the popularity of these majors, an unexpected employment crisis is emerging, particularly in the U.S. where computer science, once considered a top field, now has a high unemployment rate of 6.1% [5][6]. - The article highlights that the perception of job security in popular fields does not correlate with actual employment stability in the AI era [22]. Group 2: Impact of AI on Employment - By 2030, it is predicted that over 12 million jobs in the U.S. will disappear, affecting not only low-skilled labor but also white-collar jobs previously considered secure [8]. - A study predicts that up to 70% of roles in professions like medicine, law, and education may be replaced by AI by 2028 [9]. - The article notes that the demand for computer science graduates is not necessarily increasing due to oversupply and the need for more skilled candidates [18][20]. Group 3: Shifts in Educational Focus - Major universities are reducing humanities courses while expanding STEM programs, with over 100 new AI-related majors added in the last six years in China [12][13]. - The article cites that the number of STEM graduates in China is eight times that of the U.S., indicating a significant shift in educational focus towards technical fields [16]. Group 4: Job Market Transformation - The retail and manufacturing sectors are expected to see significant job losses, with 2.8 million and 2.1 million jobs respectively needing to be reallocated by 2030 [28]. - In manufacturing, the demand for basic skill jobs is declining, while the need for engineers and high-level management is increasing [30]. - The financial sector is also undergoing transformation, with an estimated 600,000 jobs affected, particularly in roles like cashiers and data entry [31][32]. Group 5: Future Skills Demand - The article emphasizes the importance of both technical and social-emotional skills in the future job market, with predictions of a 29% increase in technical skills demand in the U.S. by 2030 [43]. - It highlights that the integration of technical and social-emotional skills will be crucial, as both STEM and humanities graduates will need to adapt to the evolving job landscape [45][47].
中国连续3个月减持美债,以旧换新带动消费2.9万亿 | 财经日日评
吴晓波频道· 2025-07-19 00:04
Group 1: Foreign Investment Policies - The Chinese government is encouraging foreign investors to reinvest in China by implementing tax support policies and simplifying investment processes [1][2] - The new measures allow foreign investment enterprises to reinvest profits without needing to register for domestic reinvestment, thus reducing currency and tax costs [1] Group 2: Domestic Consumption and Economic Policies - The "old-for-new" policy has significantly boosted domestic consumption, with sales reaching 2.9 trillion yuan, benefiting around 400 million people [3][4] - The government plans to continue supporting this policy to stimulate domestic demand, although the effectiveness may diminish without additional supportive measures [4] Group 3: U.S. Treasury Holdings - China has continued to reduce its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds for three consecutive months, with a total holding of 756.3 billion USD as of May [5][6] - This trend reflects a strategic move to decrease reliance on the U.S. dollar and promote the internationalization of the yuan [6] Group 4: Central Enterprises Performance - Central enterprises reported a value-added output of 5.2 trillion yuan and a profit total of 1.4 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, indicating stable performance amid external challenges [7][8] - Investment in strategic emerging industries remains high, showcasing a shift in focus towards enhancing future competitiveness [8] Group 5: Automotive Tax Policy Changes - The threshold for luxury car consumption tax has been lowered from 1.3 million yuan to 900,000 yuan, which will increase costs for certain vehicle buyers [9][10] - This policy aims to boost tax revenue while potentially dampening luxury car sales, although the overall impact is expected to be manageable [10] Group 6: Semiconductor Industry Insights - TSMC reported a 61% increase in net profit for Q2 2025, driven by strong demand for advanced semiconductor processes, particularly in AI applications [11][12] - The company maintains a leading position in the market, with advanced processes accounting for 74% of total revenue, indicating robust customer demand for cutting-edge technology [11] Group 7: Volvo's Financial Challenges - Volvo reported its first quarterly loss since going public, with a 10 billion SEK operating loss due to high one-time costs related to U.S. tariffs [13][14] - The company is exploring options to establish manufacturing in the U.S. to mitigate tariff impacts, reflecting broader challenges faced by global automakers [14] Group 8: Stock Market Trends - The stock market showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high for the year, indicating a recovery in trading enthusiasm [15][16] - Market dynamics are influenced by various sectors, with energy and metal prices showing upward trends, although the sustainability of these price increases remains uncertain [15]
科特勒警告的三大营销顽疾,仍在杀死品牌
吴晓波频道· 2025-07-17 15:39
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the evolving nature of marketing, highlighting the relevance of Philip Kotler's "Marketing Management" in today's rapidly changing business environment, particularly with the rise of digital marketing and AI technologies [2][3][28]. Group 1: Historical Context of Marketing - In 1967, Kotler's "Marketing Management" emerged during a time of significant market changes, including overproduction, media revolution, and globalization, which reshaped marketing practices [20][24][26]. - The book has undergone multiple iterations, reflecting the continuous evolution of marketing theories and practices to adapt to market changes [9][10][61]. Group 2: Key Marketing Concepts - Kotler warned against confusing advertising with marketing and emphasized the importance of customer experience over mere product sales [3][39]. - The article discusses the AIDA model introduced by Elmer Lewis, which outlines the steps a consumer goes through before making a purchase [11][12]. - The 4P theory (Product, Price, Promotion, Place) proposed by McCarthy is highlighted as a foundational concept in modern marketing [17][18]. Group 3: Challenges and Opportunities in Marketing - The rise of live streaming and digital personas presents new challenges for marketers, necessitating a shift in strategies to engage consumers effectively [28][29]. - Kotler's insights from 20 years ago regarding the Chinese market still resonate today, emphasizing the need for companies to focus on customer share rather than market share [36][37]. Group 4: Strategies for Competing in Marketing - Kotler suggests three strategies for competing in saturated markets: benchmarking, reverse engineering, and technological advancement [44][45]. - The article stresses that successful marketing requires a deep understanding of consumer needs and the ability to provide value beyond the product itself [40][42]. Group 5: The Future of Marketing - The article concludes that the principles outlined in Kotler's work remain crucial for marketers today, as the market continues to evolve rapidly with new technologies and consumer behaviors [56][60].
超半数高净值人士,用保险和遗嘱传承财富
吴晓波频道· 2025-07-17 15:39
Group 1 - The article discusses the wealth inheritance issues faced by high-net-worth individuals in China, highlighting that only 12%-20% consider using trusts and family offices for wealth transfer [8] - It provides a profile of high-net-worth individuals, defining them as families with disposable assets over 6 million RMB, while the middle class is defined as those with disposable assets between 2 million and 6 million RMB [3] - The article emphasizes that 67% of high-net-worth individuals prefer using wills for inheritance, and 54% opt for insurance products to avoid disputes and legal risks [8] Group 2 - The report indicates that the number of wealthy families in China has decreased for two consecutive years, with a slight decline to 5.128 million households in 2024, while the number of high-net-worth individuals as defined by a bank has increased [18][22] - It notes that the wealth is increasingly concentrated among the top tier, with the "Golden Flower" users of a bank representing only 2.5% of total users but having 177 times the average assets of ordinary clients [26] - The article highlights a shift in focus among high-net-worth individuals from wealth creation to wealth preservation, with 95% having various types of insurance products [32][58] Group 3 - High-net-worth individuals exhibit changing consumption habits, with a high desire for consumption scoring 79.7, significantly higher than the middle class [38] - The article identifies four key consumption characteristics: high desire for consumption, a shift towards understated luxury, prioritizing health investments, and a preference for privacy in travel [42][45][50] - It concludes that the current economic uncertainties have led high-net-worth individuals to prioritize health and privacy over ostentatious displays of wealth [56]
药品集采不再锚定最低价,劳动力失业率连续4月下降 | 财经日日评
吴晓波频道· 2025-07-17 15:39
Group 1: Healthcare and Insurance - The 2024 resident medical insurance surplus reached 51.942 billion RMB, an increase of over 40 billion RMB compared to the previous year, despite a decline in the number of insured individuals [1] - The total expenditure growth rate of the medical insurance fund has decreased to 5.5%, down from 14.7% in 2023 [1] - The total number of cross-regional medical visits in 2024 was 397 million, a 63.2% increase year-on-year, with total expenses amounting to 786.774 billion RMB, up 10.6% [1] Group 2: Employment and Labor Market - The unemployment rate for urban labor aged 16-24 was 14.5% in June, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, marking four consecutive months of decline [3] - The overall urban survey unemployment rate averaged 5.2% in the first half of the year, with June's rate at 5.0% [3] - The unemployment rate for the 30-59 age group increased slightly, indicating challenges for middle-aged workers in finding new employment [4] Group 3: Pharmaceutical Industry - The 11th batch of national drug procurement has been initiated, with significant changes including the removal of the "lowest price" benchmark and increased quality supervision [5] - The new procurement rules aim to balance the interests of pharmaceutical companies and patients, ensuring that drug prices remain reasonable while maintaining quality [7] - The focus on clinical usage and transparency in procurement processes is expected to enhance the effectiveness of drug procurement [7] Group 4: European Union Budget - The European Commission proposed a new budget of 2 trillion euros for 2028-2034, significantly higher than the current budget of 1.21 trillion euros, focusing on defense, economic competitiveness, and agricultural subsidy reforms [8] - The proposal faces opposition from key member states like Germany and France, which may hinder its approval [9] Group 5: E-commerce and Delivery Services - Douyin has adjusted its food delivery business model from open access to targeted invitations, focusing on quality merchants [10] - The introduction of the AI product "Tanfang" aims to enhance user experience by providing a comprehensive service from restaurant discovery to order placement [10] - Douyin's strategy appears to be a shift towards differentiated competition rather than engaging in aggressive subsidies [11] Group 6: Securities Industry - The number of securities practitioners in China has decreased by 7,268 to 329,100, marking a net reduction of 25,000 over the past two years [12] - Factors contributing to this decline include reduced IPO activity, lower brokerage commissions, and the digital transformation of securities firms [13] - The demand for talent in the securities industry is shifting, with a growing emphasis on research capabilities and the potential for AI to replace certain roles [14] Group 7: Foreign Investment Trends - South Korean investors have made over 5.4 billion USD in transactions in China's stock markets this year, making it the second-largest overseas investment destination for them [15] - The focus of Korean investments is primarily on Hong Kong stocks, with significant net purchases in companies like Xiaomi and BYD [15] - Despite a general interest in the Chinese market, the actual engagement from foreign investors remains largely speculative rather than long-term [16] Group 8: Stock Market Performance - On July 17, the stock market experienced a rally, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.37% and the ChiNext Index increasing by 1.76% [17] - The market saw active trading with a total turnover of 1.54 trillion RMB, indicating a robust trading environment [17] - Various sectors, including AI hardware and military stocks, showed strong performance, while real estate and banking sectors lagged [18]
黄仁勋换上了唐装
吴晓波频道· 2025-07-16 16:07
文 / 巴九灵(微信公众号:吴晓波频道) 黄仁勋最近为了中国市场,已经拼了。 2025年7月,北京最热的时候,黄仁勋依旧一身皮衣,不远万里来参加"链博会",并且直言中国AI市场非常大,对美国公司十分重要。 第三届链博会上黄仁勋接受媒体群访 点击上图▲立即收听 " 当美国还在争论要不要卖芯片时,中国企业已经用我们的芯片做出了会跑的 AI 。 " 一个多月前,他曾罕见穿着西装飞往北京,跟贸促会领导会见。算上这次参加展会,半年多的时间里,黄仁勋往来中国不下三次,几乎到了一个月 来一次的地步,一次比一次态度亲和,甚至跟媒体大打亲情牌。 —— 黄仁勋 终于,7月15日,他对记者宣布了一个对英伟达来说天大的好消息。 "美国政府已经批准了我们的出口许可,我们可以开始发货了,所以我们将开始向中国市场销售H20。我非常期待能很快发货H20,对此我感到非 常高兴,这真是个非常、非常好的消息。" 所谓H20,是英伟达为突破美国对华芯片出口限制,于2023年年底推出的针对中国市场的芯片,算是中国特供版A800/H800芯片的阉割版——其 互联速度砍至H100的1/15,算力芯片频率也做了调整,整体性能只有旗舰级H100芯片的20%左 ...
美国6月CPI上涨2.7%,中国二季度手机出货量下降 | 财经日日评
吴晓波频道· 2025-07-16 16:07
Group 1: Economic Indicators - The U.S. June CPI rose by 2.7% year-on-year, the highest since February, slightly exceeding expectations of 2.6% and up from 2.4% in the previous month [1] - Core CPI for June increased by 2.9% year-on-year, meeting expectations but slightly higher than the previous value of 2.8% [1] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September is estimated at 62%, with expectations of nearly two cuts by the end of the year [1] Group 2: Smartphone Market in China - In Q2 2025, China's smartphone market shipments declined by 4% year-on-year, ending six consecutive quarters of growth, with total shipments at 69 million units [3] - Huawei regained the top position with 12.5 million units shipped, holding an 18.1% market share, while other major brands like Vivo, OPPO, and Apple saw declines in shipments [3][4] - The decline in shipments is attributed to cautious market sentiment and the end of government subsidies, leading manufacturers to reduce inventory pressure [4] Group 3: Local Asset Management Companies - The Financial Regulatory Bureau released new regulations for local asset management companies (AMCs) to clarify business scope and improve risk management [5][6] - The regulations aim to prevent AMCs from engaging in activities that could increase financial risks, such as facilitating new hidden debts [7] - The focus is on ensuring AMCs serve local economies effectively while adhering to defined operational boundaries [6][7] Group 4: Geely's Acquisition of Zeekr - Geely announced the acquisition of all remaining shares of Zeekr, with a total cash consideration of approximately $2.399 billion [8] - Zeekr is projected to achieve revenues of 75.913 billion yuan in 2024, a 46.9% increase year-on-year, while its net loss is expected to narrow by 29.9% [8] - The acquisition is part of Geely's strategy to consolidate its electric vehicle brands and reduce internal competition [9] Group 5: Apple’s Foldable iPhone Development - Apple has decided to use Samsung's display technology for its first foldable iPhone, moving away from in-house development due to slow progress [10][11] - The foldable iPhone is expected to enter production by late 2025, with Samsung providing the core display components [10] - This shift reflects Apple's cautious approach to emerging technologies and the need to maintain its competitive edge in the market [11] Group 6: Sam's Club Brand Strategy - Sam's Club has introduced mainstream brands like Haoliyou and Weilong, causing dissatisfaction among members who expect unique product offerings [12][13] - The expansion of Sam's Club is projected to increase the number of stores significantly, with sales exceeding 5 billion USD in some locations [13] - Consumer reactions indicate that even with branding adjustments, acceptance of mainstream products may take time, challenging Sam's Club's brand positioning [14] Group 7: A-Share Market Trends - As of June 2025, the total number of A-share investors surpassed 240 million, with a significant increase in individual investors [15] - The market is transitioning towards a more mature structure, with a decline in individual investor holdings and an increase in institutional participation [16] - Recent market activity shows a lack of clear trends, with various sectors experiencing mixed performance amid ongoing adjustments [17][18]