第一句话，中美经贸关系历经风雨，双方仍互为重要经贸伙伴。 第二句话，中美经贸关系本质是互利共赢，合作是唯一正确道路。 第三句话，中美经贸合作难免会出现分歧和摩擦，对话协商是解决问题的最好选择。 7月18日， 商务部部长王文涛在国新办举行的"高质量完成'十四五'规划"系列主题新闻发布会上表示，中美经 贸关系历经风雨，双方仍互为重要经贸伙伴。2018年以来，美方单边主义、保护主义抬头，不断挑起经贸摩 擦，一系列行为严重冲击和干扰中美正常经贸合作。尽管中美贸易占各自的份额有所下降，但双边贸易总体保 持稳定。 2024年，中美货物贸易额和服务贸易规模达6883亿美元和1558亿美元，较2017年分别增长18%和 34.7%。事实证明，中美经贸合作有坚实的经济基础和民意基础，人为的"脱钩"是脱不掉的。 王文涛 在会上表示，2018年美方挑起经贸摩擦以来，中美经贸关系可谓是跌宕起伏，标志性事件也不少，用 四句话简要概括： 文章封面图来源于AI，以上观点来自相关机构，不代表天天基金的观点，不对观点的准确性 和完整性做任何保证。收益率数据仅供参考，过往业绩和走势风格不预示未来表现，不构成 ↓ 点击"阅读原文" 或上天天基金A ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market showed strong performance on July 18, with the ChiNext Index reaching an 8-month high, driven by significant gains in rare earth permanent magnet stocks and other sectors [2][4][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The A-share market indices rose, with the ChiNext Index breaking its February high, reaching 2296.91 points, marking the highest level in 8 months [4]. - The overall market saw strong gains in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, steel, coal, and basic chemicals, while public utilities, media, and light manufacturing sectors experienced declines [4]. Group 2: Rare Earth Sector - The rare earth permanent magnet concept surged, with stocks like Jiu Wu High-Tech and Northern Rare Earth hitting the daily limit, reflecting strong investor interest [4][7]. - A new rare earth mineral named "Ned Yellow River" was discovered, which has been approved by the International Mineralogical Association, potentially boosting the sector's profile [7]. - Several rare earth companies reported significant profit increases, with Huahong Technology expecting a net profit growth of 3047% to 3722% year-on-year for the first half of the year, and Northern Rare Earth projecting a growth of 1883% to 2015% [7]. Group 3: Individual Stock Highlights - The stock of Shangwei New Materials hit the daily limit for the eighth consecutive trading day, with a cumulative increase of 330.21% since July [9][11]. - The company announced a significant share transfer agreement that could change its controlling shareholder, pending approval from the shareholders' meeting and regulatory bodies [11][12]. - Haixing Co. also saw its stock hit the limit for the third consecutive trading day, indicating strong market interest [14].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant rise in precious metals, particularly platinum and silver, with various institutions raising their price forecasts due to increased investment demand and tightening physical supply [2][4][5]. Group 1: Precious Metals Performance - Platinum has seen a price increase of over 57% this year, while silver has risen by 30%, both reaching multi-year highs [2][4]. - The performance of palladium and copper has also been notable, with increases of over 36% and 36% respectively, while gold has risen by 26% [2]. - The overall performance of the non-ferrous metals sector has been strong, with a 19.54% increase, ranking first among 31 sectors [3][6]. Group 2: Investment Demand and Market Trends - There has been a surge in sales of silver products, such as silver bars and coins, alongside a continuous increase in silver ETF shares [3]. - Citigroup has raised its price targets for platinum and silver, predicting silver could exceed $40 per ounce in the coming months due to tightening supply and rising investment demand [4]. - The World Gold Council suggests that geopolitical tensions and economic downturns could further boost gold prices by 10% to 15% [4]. Group 3: Sector Analysis - The non-ferrous metals sector has outperformed other sectors, with all sub-industries showing positive growth [6]. - The precious metals sector has led the market, with specific ETFs linked to precious metals showing significant year-to-date gains [6]. - Analysts emphasize the importance of investment demand in driving silver prices, indicating a strong correlation between investment demand and price movements [5]. Group 4: Strategic Metals and Policy Risks - The article discusses the political and policy risk premiums associated with trading strategic metals, highlighting the need for a long-term view on supply chains and national security [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance of the A-share market, highlighting the strong performance of lithium and rare earth sectors, while noting the fluctuations in automotive parts and retail sectors [1][2]. Market Performance - On July 18, the A-share market opened higher with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.28%, the Shenzhen Component Index also up by 0.28%, and the ChiNext Index rising by 0.43% [1]. - The lithium mining and rare earth sectors showed significant gains, with lithium stocks continuing their strong performance [12][13]. Sector Analysis - Lithium stocks experienced a strong rally, with companies like Jinyuan Co. and Shengxin Lithium Energy hitting the daily limit, while others like Zhongkuang Resources and Tianqi Lithium also saw increases [13]. - The price of lithium carbonate futures rose over 4%, reaching 70,980 yuan per ton, driven by market sentiment following a temporary production halt at Cangge Mining due to licensing issues [14]. Company Spotlight - A notable stock, Shuangwei New Materials, achieved an 8-day consecutive limit-up, with a total market value of 13.5 billion yuan and a price increase of over 330% since its resumption of trading on July 9 [6][7][9]. - The company announced a significant change in control, with Zhiyuan Robotics planning to acquire a controlling stake, which could set a precedent for future capital operations in the sci-tech sector [11]. Investor Sentiment - The article indicates a positive sentiment among investors, particularly in the lithium sector, as the long-term demand outlook remains strong despite recent price fluctuations [14].

上天天基金APP搜索【777】注册即可 领500元券包，优选基金10元起投！限量发放！先到 先得！ 7月中旬，全球最大资管公司贝莱德集团在上海举办了2025年下半年投资展望分享会。贝莱 德首席中国经济学家，贝莱德建信理财、贝莱德基金的相关投研人士分享了对中国经济、股 票市场、债券市场的最新观点，以及资产配置策略。 王晓京称，股票在低利率环境下的投资逻辑要更加偏向于分析现金流价值。基于此，建议关 注三类资产：一是具备绝对现金流价值的股票，比如高股息、强自由现金流企业；二是广义 消费行业，比如汽车、电子、家电等在"以旧换新"等政策推动下，显现出良好现金流能力； 三是传统的高增长板块，比如AI、医药、银发经济等，虽然短期尚不盈利，但具备远期估值预 期和增长空间。 贝莱德建信理财副总经理、首席多资产投资官刘睿表示，坚守长期逻辑，黄金等作为"资产配 置对冲工具"的重要性将持续增强。另外，美股短期胜率较高，值得关注。虽然美股当前估值 略贵，但其基本面支撑扎实。人工智能（AI）领域的二季报有望超预期，大型科技公司资本开 支依然强劲。此外，美国宏观数据尚可，尽管有边际走弱迹象，但整体不差，同时市场对下 半年美联储降息预期较强 ...

Group 1: Cryptocurrency Legislation - The U.S. House of Representatives passed three cryptocurrency-related bills, including the Clarity Act and the Genius Act, aimed at significant regulatory reform for cryptocurrencies [3] - The Genius Act received 308 votes in favor and 122 against, and is expected to be signed into law by President Trump [3] - The Clarity Act, which aims to establish a broader regulatory framework for digital assets, passed with 294 votes in favor and 134 against and will be reviewed by the Senate [3] Group 2: Stock Market Performance - On July 17, U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.52% at 44,484.49 points, the S&P 500 up 0.54% at 6,297.36 points, and the Nasdaq up 0.74% at 20,884.27 points, marking new historical highs for both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq [6] - Major technology stocks saw gains, with the U.S. Tech Giants Index rising by 0.52% [7] - Notable stock performances included Microsoft up 1.2%, Nvidia up 0.95%, and Google up 0.51% [8] Group 3: Chinese Concept Stocks - Chinese concept stocks mostly rose, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index up 1.23% and the Wind Chinese Technology Leaders Index up 0.79% [11] - Leading stocks included JD.com up 3.32%, Pinduoduo up 2.70%, and Meituan up 2.21% [11] - Some stocks experienced declines, such as Hesai Technology down over 8% and Ctrip down over 1% [11] Group 4: Federal Reserve Outlook - Federal Reserve officials anticipate two interest rate cuts this year, with current inflation expected to remain between 3% and 3.5% [13] - Economic growth is projected at about 1% for the year, with an expected rise in the unemployment rate to 4.5% by year-end [13] - Officials noted that tariffs could increase inflation by about 1 percentage point in the latter part of 2025 and into 2026 [13]

Core Viewpoint - The future of AI is transitioning towards physical applications, with significant advancements expected in silicon technology and open-source models, particularly in China [1][4][5]. Group 1: AI Development Stages - AI has experienced rapid development over the past twelve years, with major breakthroughs occurring approximately every three to five years [4]. - The current wave of AI, termed reasoning AI, is characterized by its ability to understand and solve previously unencountered problems [4]. - The next phase of AI is expected to be physical AI, where capabilities will be applied to physical machines such as robots [4]. Group 2: China's Role in Open Source - China has excelled in open-source initiatives, with models like DeepSeek, Qwen, and Kimi being among the best in the world [6][7]. - The number of research papers published by Chinese researchers on arXiv is the highest globally, indicating a strong contribution to the open-source ecosystem [7]. - Open-source research enhances the quality and safety of AI development by inviting global scrutiny [7]. Group 3: Advancements in Silicon Technology - Future advancements in silicon technology are expected to include three-dimensional transistors, larger panel-level packaging, and high-density integrated modules [8][9]. - The transition to three-dimensional structures, such as Gate-All-Around (GAA) transistors, will significantly enhance performance [8]. - Innovations in packaging technology, such as CoWoS, allow for the stacking of multiple chips, leading to greater integration and efficiency [8]. Group 4: Recommendations for Young People - Young individuals should develop the ability to interact effectively with AI and start using it as soon as possible [10][12]. - It is crucial for the younger generation to continue learning foundational skills such as mathematics, logic, and programming, even as AI evolves [12]. - The integration of AI into daily life presents a unique opportunity for young people to grow alongside this technology [12].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significant advancements and potential of China's controllable nuclear fusion industry, highlighting its strategic importance in the global energy landscape and the country's commitment to supporting this technology through various policies and initiatives [3][4]. Group 1: Industry Development - The Shanghai Stock Exchange hosted a salon on controllable nuclear fusion, with over 20 companies and nearly 30 financial institutions participating, focusing on the future of the industry and its technological breakthroughs [1]. - China's controllable nuclear fusion industry has gained a first-mover advantage, particularly in high-temperature superconducting materials and Tokamak devices, due to overall technological progress and collaboration among industry, academia, and research [3][4]. - The industry encompasses multiple segments, including materials, main engines, systems, and applications, with significant policy support from the government to promote research and international cooperation [3]. Group 2: Key Players and Innovations - Leading companies in the Shanghai main board include China National Nuclear Corporation, which is deeply involved in the CFETR project, and China Nuclear Engineering Corporation, which supports the ITER project [4]. - On the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, Guoguang Electric has developed the first heat helium leak detection device meeting nuclear industry standards, while Aikesaibo's power supply technologies have been applied in controllable nuclear fusion [4]. Group 3: Commercialization and Investment - The commercialization of controllable nuclear fusion is accelerating, with upstream companies experiencing steady growth in order and production capacity, indicating a potential earlier timeline for generating the "first degree of electricity" [7]. - Investment institutions are calling for government support to facilitate discussions on common technical issues and to create a collaborative ecosystem within the industry [6][7]. - Recent policies from the China Securities Regulatory Commission aim to enhance the Sci-Tech Innovation Board's support for high-quality tech companies with significant breakthroughs and commercial prospects [8].

Core Viewpoint - A-shares are experiencing a rebound, driven by positive external factors and a shift towards growth sectors like AI and innovative pharmaceuticals, with foreign institutions raising their economic forecasts for China [1][6][10]. Group 1: Market Performance - A-shares saw a collective rise, with the ChiNext Index increasing by nearly 2% and over 3,500 stocks gaining [2][6]. - The total trading volume in the two markets reached 1.54 trillion yuan, with sectors like military, pharmaceuticals, automotive, and semiconductors leading the gains, while precious metals, insurance, and banking sectors faced corrections [4][5]. Group 2: Sector Analysis - The AI and innovative pharmaceuticals sectors are experiencing significant growth, supported by strong narratives and event-driven catalysts [7][9]. - Recent approvals for U.S. chip exports to China, including AMD's MI308 and NVIDIA's products, indicate a major shift in U.S. policy towards AI chip exports, suggesting progress in U.S.-China trade negotiations [8]. Group 3: Foreign Investment Sentiment - At least nine U.S. and international banks have raised their GDP growth forecasts for China, with Morgan Stanley and Barclays predicting a near 5% growth, while ANZ forecasts 5.1% [10]. - Citigroup's report indicates that despite macroeconomic fluctuations, Asian markets are outperforming global counterparts, with specific targets set for major indices [10]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - The market is witnessing a shift from blue-chip stocks to technology and pharmaceutical growth stocks, indicating a potential change in investment style [5][11]. - The "new mechanism drugs" and sectors like new consumption, humanoid robots, and AI are highlighted as key investment opportunities for the second half of the year [14]. Group 5: Balanced Investment Approach - A balanced investment strategy is recommended, considering both growth and defensive stocks, especially in light of the current market dynamics and potential volatility [15].

以下文章来源于华安基金 ，作者智诚相伴实力挺你 华安基金 . 华安基金官方订阅号。老十家基金公司，25年资产管理经验，为超1亿投资人提供服务。 历经三年多的蓄力，上证指数终于重回3500点。 3500点算是高位吗？ 未来继续上涨，还是震荡波动？ 当下如何应对？ 今天就来聊一聊。 一、3500点算是高位吗？ 先说答案： 整体来看相对偏高，但不必过于忧虑。 而无论上涨还是调整，行情往往不是一蹴而就的。过去20年间，仅3段主要行情中，上证指数却有多达 45次反复穿过3500点，恰恰说明突破后的往复徘徊才是常态。 二、机构眼中的后市路径 对于突破后的市场走向，机构观点呈现 "乐观中带谨慎" 的共识： 东吴证券：3500点是A股重要关口 3500点作为A股重要关口，上证指数在此附近经历多次多空博弈。而权重股的突破能够吸引增量资金入 场，为后续行情打开空间。 中泰证券：资金驱动科技进攻 回顾过去20年，上证指数曾 23次向上穿过3500点 （并伴随22次向下穿过），约有12.18%的时间，上证 指数是高于3500点的。 过往向上穿过3500点后的3次代表性行情，2次后续迎来了连续大涨，行情均持续超过150个交易日后， 进 ...