Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of integrating finance and technology to support sustainable forestry development, highlighting the role of financial services in enhancing ecological value and promoting high-quality growth in the forestry sector [2][3]. Group 1: Financial and Technological Integration - The "Financial + Technology" initiative aims to leverage financial and technological collaboration to inject new momentum into forestry development, facilitating the quantification of ecological value and promoting sustainable development cycles [3][4]. - The initiative is supported by the Chongqing Manzhai Industrial Group, a key player in ecological restoration and forestry-related industries, which underscores the importance of industry collaboration [2][3]. Group 2: Policy and Regulatory Framework - In August 2025, a joint notice from the People's Bank of China, the Financial Regulatory Bureau, and the National Forestry and Grassland Administration outlined 15 measures to enhance financial support for high-quality forestry development, addressing barriers between finance, collective forest rights reform, and comprehensive forest management [2][3]. - The article highlights the significance of Chongqing as a pilot area for collective forest rights reform and green finance innovation, showcasing its unique role in exploring financial and technological support for forestry [4]. Group 3: Future Directions and Expert Contributions - The first issue of the "Financial + Technology" column will be published in January 2026, focusing on Chongqing's systematic exploration of digital forest rights, ecological value quantification, and financial product diversification [4]. - The column aims to gather insights from experts in finance, technology, and forestry to discuss innovative trends and policy recommendations for enhancing financial empowerment in the forestry sector [4].

导语： 2025年，黄金价格创下历史性涨幅，全年累计上涨超70%，并逾50次刷新历史纪录，年末单月涨幅更突破7%，显示出强劲的上涨动 能。 这一突出的市场动态使得黄金价格的形成机制与未来走势再度成为学术与政策研究关注的焦点。鉴于此，本文旨在系统梳理现有研 究，主要从黄金的多重属性、核心价格决定因素以及对2026年市场的最新预测三个方面展开综述。 黄金的多重属性： 中信建投证券董事总经理、首席策略官 陈果 黄金的四大属性是其价格变动的底层逻辑 当下黄金追平内在价值，黄金重回货币属性，后续利率影响或将放大。 金价追平内在价值，即金价追平美元币值，可间接理解为 当下美元币值已进入稳定阶段，短时间内有望看到金价对实际利率敏感度的提升。 影响黄金价格的多重因素： 世界黄金协会中国区CEO 王立新 2025金价上涨的底层逻辑：美元信用危机 根据世界黄金协会的归因模型，影响金价的因素主要分为四大类：一是重要的政治经济政策，特别是以美元实际利率为代表的美联 储货币政策，这也是最重要的变量；二是国际地缘政治冲突；三是全球买卖方的市场势能和供需基本面；四是其他特殊因素。 在2025年，影响黄金最大的因素可能是 美元的信用危机 ， ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution of China's currency policy, emphasizing the transition towards a strong renminbi (RMB) as a key element in establishing a financial powerhouse by 2025, aiming to reduce reliance on the US dollar and enhance the RMB's international status [1][3][9]. Group 1: Historical Context of Currency Policy - Over the past 30 years, China's exchange rate system has undergone significant changes approximately every decade, starting with the 1994 unification of exchange rates, followed by a fixed peg to the US dollar until 2005, and then a market-based adjustment approach [1]. - From 2005 to 2015, the RMB appreciated significantly against the US dollar, with a cumulative increase of 26%, while the nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) rose by 46% [8]. - Post-2015, the RMB has exhibited more two-way fluctuations, with the exchange rate generally oscillating between 6.25 and 7.35 against the dollar [8]. Group 2: Policy Directions for a Strong RMB - The 2023 Central Financial Work Conference highlighted the need to accelerate the construction of a financial powerhouse, placing "strong currency" at the forefront of its core elements [3][9]. - The government is expected to enhance policy coordination to elevate the RMB's international status, aiming to provide a viable alternative in the global monetary system [3][4]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes technological innovation and industrial integration to bolster the economic foundation necessary for a strong currency [3][15]. Group 3: Internationalization of the RMB - Significant progress has been made in promoting the RMB as an international currency, with measures taken from 2010 to 2015 to increase its use in international trade settlements and the establishment of offshore RMB markets [19]. - By the end of 2015, the IMF included the RMB in its Special Drawing Rights (SDR) basket, marking a milestone in the RMB's internationalization [19]. - As of 2021, the RMB accounted for 2.8% of global foreign exchange reserves, with expectations to reach a more competitive level in the coming years [21][28]. Group 4: Challenges and Future Outlook - The potential for RMB internationalization is largely constrained by the degree of openness of China's capital account, with expectations for gradual relaxation of capital flow controls while maintaining macroeconomic management [4][22]. - The government aims to balance the promotion of RMB internationalization with the management of associated risks, focusing on building a robust cross-border payment system to reduce reliance on the SWIFT network [28][29]. - The RMB's role in global trade and investment is anticipated to grow, particularly in transactions with countries along the Belt and Road Initiative, as China continues to diversify its trade and investment relationships [27].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the escalating challenges faced by U.S. Treasury bonds (referred to as "Treasuries") and their implications for the global economy, emphasizing the need for a diversified international monetary system to address these issues [1]. Group 1: Historical Context of U.S. Treasuries - Since the establishment of the Federal Reserve in 1913, U.S. Treasuries have evolved into a crucial dollar-denominated asset, facilitating the internationalization of the dollar [3]. - The entry of the U.S. into World War I in 1917 led to significant measures that enhanced the liquidity of Treasuries, further solidifying their role in international finance [3]. - The Bretton Woods system established post-World War II reinforced the dollar's central position in the international monetary system, leading to a substantial increase in the global share of Treasuries [4]. Group 2: Expansion of U.S. Treasuries - Following the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, Treasuries became a primary channel for dollar repatriation, particularly after the establishment of the petrodollar system in 1974, which saw major surplus economies accumulating Treasuries [6]. - The scale of U.S. Treasuries expanded from $1.8 trillion in 1985 to $5.6 trillion by 2000, with foreign investors' share rising from 15% to 35% during the same period [6]. Group 3: Factors Supporting Treasury Expansion - Internally, the U.S. lacks motivation to enforce fiscal discipline, with the debt ceiling often raised rather than effectively curbing debt growth [8]. - Externally, the strong position of the dollar and the absence of viable alternatives to Treasuries allow for continued U.S. debt expansion, despite recent debt ceiling crises and credit rating downgrades [10]. Group 4: Recent Trends and Future Outlook - Since President Trump's first term began in January 2017, the U.S. debt has surged from $19.9 trillion to $36.9 trillion by July 2025, marking an increase of 81.5% [12]. - The net interest expenditure has escalated from $262.55 billion in FY2017 to $881.12 billion in FY2024, reflecting a 235.6% increase, which intensifies the government's debt servicing pressure [12].

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 50.1% in December 2025, indicating a return to the expansion zone after eight months, driven by policy support, increased external demand, and a later Spring Festival in 2026 [2][3]. Group 1: Policy Support and Investment Recovery - Policy measures have effectively promoted investment stabilization, with the central economic work conference emphasizing the need to "promote investment stabilization and stimulate private investment vitality" [2][3]. - The National Development and Reform Commission announced a plan for early 2026 construction projects and a central budget investment plan totaling approximately 295 billion yuan [2][3]. - The production index increased to 51.7% and the new orders index rose to 50.8%, indicating a rebound in production and orders due to fiscal support [3]. Group 2: External Demand and Export Orders - The new export orders index increased by 1.4 percentage points to 49%, reflecting a significant rise in export orders driven by strong external demand [4]. - Global monetary easing and fiscal stimulus have bolstered external demand, with manufacturing PMIs in France and the UK rising to expansion zones, and the US PMI remaining above 52% since August [4]. - Container throughput increased by 7.2% year-on-year in December, indicating a positive trend in export activities [4]. Group 3: Impact of the Spring Festival Timing - The later timing of the 2026 Spring Festival (February 17) resulted in less disruption to December's physical workload compared to previous years [5]. - The production index in December rose by 1.7 percentage points, contrasting with the historical trend of decline in December production indices [5]. Group 4: Price Trends and Inventory Adjustments - The PMI output price index rose by 0.7 percentage points to 48.9%, indicating a recovery in output prices, although they remain in a contraction zone [5]. - The inventory index saw an increase, with procurement volume, raw material inventory, and finished goods inventory rising due to increased production and orders [6]. - Various industries, including electrical machinery and pharmaceuticals, showed signs of inventory replenishment, although the sustainability of this trend requires further data support [6].

学习好贯彻好党的二十届四中全会精神※ 习近平 这次全会，听取了中央政治局工作报告，分析了当前形势和任务，审议通过了《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的 建议》，圆满完成各项议程。 全会通过的《建议》，立足于夯实基础、全面发力，对"十五五"时期事关中国式现代化全局的战略任务作出部署，是指导"十五五"时期经济社 会发展的纲领性文件。学习好贯彻好全会精神，是当前和今后一个时期全党全国的一项重大政治任务。 下面，我代表中央政治局，就贯彻落实全会精神讲几点意见。 要迅速掀起学习贯彻全会精神的热潮，通过各种方式组织好全会精神的学习、宣讲、宣传，使全党全社会领会好全会精神。 第一，深刻领会"十五五"时期经济社会发展的重大意义。按照经济社会发展规律确定奋斗目标，一以贯之锚定目标团结奋进，是我们党的一 个鲜明特点和独特优势。实现社会主义现代化是一个阶梯式递进、不断发展进步的历史过程，需要不懈努力、接续奋斗。在基本实现社会主 义现代化进程中，"十五五"时期具有承前启后的重要地位。全党要认识到，抓好"十五五"时期经济社会发展，对于实现党的二十大描绘的宏伟 蓝图、分阶段有步骤推进中国式现代化，有效应对复杂严峻的外部 ...

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) rose to 50.1% in December, indicating an expansion in the manufacturing sector for the first time since April, reflecting an overall recovery in China's economic climate [4]. Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Insights - The manufacturing PMI reached 50.1%, with 16 out of 21 surveyed industries showing an increase compared to the previous month, indicating improved production and operational conditions [4]. - Both production index and new orders index saw significant increases, with production index at 51.7% (up 1.7 percentage points) and new orders index at 50.8% (up 1.6 percentage points), marking a notable expansion in demand [4]. - Large enterprises' PMI returned to the expansion zone at 50.8%, while medium-sized enterprises' PMI was at 49.8%, and small enterprises' PMI decreased to 48.6%, indicating varied recovery levels across enterprise sizes [4]. Group 2: Key Industry Performance - High-tech manufacturing PMI was at 52.5%, showing a positive growth trend, while equipment manufacturing and consumer goods industries both reached 50.4%, indicating expansion [5]. - The production expectations index rose to 55.5%, reflecting increased confidence among manufacturing enterprises regarding market development, particularly in the agricultural and food processing sectors [5]. Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector Insights - The non-manufacturing business activity index increased to 50.2%, indicating an improvement in the non-manufacturing sector's economic conditions [6]. - The service sector's business activity index was at 49.7%, with certain industries like telecommunications and financial services showing strong growth, while retail and catering remained in contraction [7]. - The construction sector's business activity index rose significantly to 52.8%, driven by favorable weather conditions and increased construction activity ahead of the holidays [7]. Group 4: Comprehensive PMI Overview - The comprehensive PMI output index reached 50.7%, indicating overall expansion in production and business activities across sectors, with manufacturing production index at 51.7% and non-manufacturing business activity index at 50.2% [8].

文/ 清华大学国家金融研究院新结构金融学研究中心副主任 沙楠 ，清华大学五 道口金融学院讲席教授、南方科技大学商学院讲席教授 周皓 美联储政策制定过程不能完全脱离美国政治与意识形态的影响，尤其国会 可对其决策展开质询和监督，这些都极其考验美联储决策层，特别是主席 平衡的艺术，即在维护独立性的同时，如何考量金融监管职能扩大对货币 政策的影响，如何在党派分歧加剧背景下避免政治干扰，如何抑制通胀的 同时避免经济衰退等。基于此，本文将以美联储重大变革为脉络，梳理独 立性的演变，并对其前景进行展望。 2025年美国总统特朗普上任以来，政治方面的压力正试图对美联储的决策过程产生影响，诸如其对美联储理事库克提出解职要求，其提名新任理事人选米 兰的快速入职，美联储下任主席遴选程序的高调启动，以及政府内阁成员对联储利率政策的公开且频繁评论，等等，相关事件接连上演，频次密集，这对 美联储的独立性地位带来一定的挑战。而中央银行的独立性一旦受损，美元信用的基础将被削弱，金融市场也必将迎来动荡。可以说，独立性正是美联储 如今具有极高信誉度和广泛影响力的基石与核心所在。 美联储成立至今已有百余年历史，其独立性地位并非一蹴而就。在此过程中 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that if the Shanghai Composite Index can close above 4000 points by the end of 2025, it will instill strong confidence in the market, encouraging more incremental capital to enter in the future. The market is expected to continue a slow bull trend in 2026, with a focus on technology growth, cyclical stocks, and resource stocks [2][3]. Economic Dimension - The economic landscape is characterized by accelerated structural transformation and the rise of new productive forces. Manufacturing PMI is stabilizing, and retail consumption is recovering. High-end manufacturing sectors like smart devices and new energy vehicles are growing significantly faster than the overall economy, becoming key drivers of new productive forces [5]. Financial Dimension - Valuations are aligning with performance, showing significant horizontal space. Non-financial sectors' net profit grew by 1.04% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with technology sectors like AI (up 19.24%) and semiconductors (up 32.41%) showing remarkable profitability. A-shares are undervalued compared to U.S. stocks, with financial and infrastructure sectors still having safety margins [5]. Policy Dimension - The policy environment is focused on stabilizing expectations and increasing incremental capital. Reforms in the capital market, such as raising the equity investment cap for insurance funds to 50%, and optimizing delisting and dividend mechanisms, are enhancing investment functionality. The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes support for new industries like AI and commercial aerospace [5]. Capital Dimension - Continuous inflow of capital is observed, with insurance funds increasing their equity investments to over 4.7 trillion yuan, adding more than 600 billion yuan in 2025. There is ample room for growth, as evidenced by a reduction of 1.11 trillion yuan in household deposits and a 2.14 trillion yuan increase in non-bank deposits, with funds entering the market through ETFs and mutual funds [6]. Industry Dimension - The dual focus on technology and cyclical sectors is evident. In technology growth, there is a surge in demand for AI computing power, storage, and commercial aerospace driven by policy support. In cyclical sectors, the supply-demand gap for industrial metals like copper and aluminum is widening, with expectations of a 150,000-ton shortfall in refined copper in 2026 [6]. Company Dimension - Overall profitability is improving, showcasing resilience. Leading companies in innovation-driven sectors, such as CATL, are achieving high capacity utilization rates close to 90%, with technological breakthroughs driving down costs [7]. Outlook for 2026 - Multiple brokerages express optimism for the A-share market in 2026, predicting a continuation of the slow bull market. The core driving logic is expected to shift from valuation recovery to profit support, with anticipated earnings growth of 5% to 12% [9][10]. The recovery of PPI is seen as a key factor that will drive nominal GDP growth and improve overall profitability in the market [11]. Key Investment Themes - Key investment themes include technology growth led by AI and hard technology, with a focus on areas like optical modules and computing chips. The cyclical and resource sectors are also expected to benefit from improved supply-demand dynamics, with industrial metals and energy sectors showing potential for cash flow improvement and high dividend yields [12].

Core Viewpoint - The State Council Tariff Commission has released the "2026 Tariff Adjustment Plan," which will implement a temporary import tariff lower than the most-favored-nation rate on 935 items starting January 1, 2026, to enhance the synergy between domestic and international markets and resources [1][2]. Group 1: Import Temporary Tariff - A temporary import tariff will be applied to 935 items (excluding tariff quota goods) [6]. - The adjustment aims to promote high-level technological self-reliance, reduce import tariffs on key components and advanced materials such as CNC hydraulic pads and composite joints [1]. - It supports the green transformation of the economy by lowering tariffs on resource-based products like regenerated black powder for lithium-ion batteries [1]. - The plan also aims to improve people's livelihoods by reducing tariffs on medical products such as artificial blood vessels and diagnostic kits for certain infectious diseases [1]. Group 2: Tariff Quota Rates - The tariff quota management will continue for eight categories of imported goods, including wheat, with unchanged tax rates [7]. - Specific fertilizers like urea, compound fertilizers, and ammonium hydrogen phosphate will maintain a 1% temporary import tariff within quota limits [7]. Group 3: Export Tariff Rates - Export tariffs will continue to be levied on 107 items, with 68 of these items subject to temporary export tariffs [8]. Group 4: Tax Items and Annotations - Adjustments have been made to certain tax items and annotations, resulting in a total of 8,972 tax items and 201 annotations for domestic items [9]. Group 5: Agreement Tariffs - The plan continues to implement agreement tariffs on certain imported goods from 34 trade partners based on 24 free trade agreements and preferential trade arrangements [10]. - Further tax reductions will be implemented according to agreements with countries such as New Zealand, Peru, Switzerland, and others [10]. Group 6: Preferential Tariffs - 43 least developed countries will continue to receive zero tariff treatment on 100% of tariff items, with preferential tariffs applied [11]. - Certain imported goods from Bangladesh, Laos, Cambodia, and Myanmar will also continue to enjoy preferential tariff rates based on agreements [11].