文/《清华金融评论》 王茅 20 25 年白银价格呈现历史性上涨 行情 ， 截至 12 月中旬，白银价格 涨 幅近 1 20% ，伦敦现货银价从年初约30 .1 美元 / 盎司飙升至 12 月 16 日 的 6 4 .74 美元 / 盎司， 主要 驱动 因素包括， 供需持续失衡、工业需求 爆发 ， 以及 投资资金涌入， 202 6 年仍有上行空间 ， 与此同时， 需 警 惕短期波动风险。 白银价格 2025 年涨势如虹 银价前景展望 ： 70 美元/盎司可期 ， 但波动加剧 2026 年支撑 银价的 因素。 供需缺口延续 ， 世界白银协会预测 2026 年缺口持续，光伏装机量年均增速超 10% 。 投资潜力仍存 ， 全球最大白银 ETF 持 仓量较 2021 年峰值低 30% ，增持空间 较大。 政策宽松预期 ， 美联储降息周期延长 ， 这 或进一步压制美元。 上行目标与风险预警。 法国巴黎银行看高至 100 美元，多数机构预测 2026 年上半年 银价将 突破 70 美元 。但同时也要注意银价 短期 波动 风险 ， 投机 资金获利了结可能引发 20% ～ 30% 回调 。 光伏 "降银"技术突破 ， 可能 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the origins of currency, highlighting the "Saint King Creation Theory" as a historical perspective and contrasting it with Sima Qian's more analytical view that links the emergence of currency to the development of trade and commerce [4][6][7]. Group 1: Historical Perspectives on Currency - The "Saint King Creation Theory" posits that currency was initially invented by a wise king, a view prevalent in ancient civilizations including China [4][5]. - Historical records indicate that the earliest discussions on the origin of currency in China can be traced back to the time of King Jing of Zhou, where the opposition to the issuance of large denomination currency was based on the need to aid the people during disasters [5][6]. - This theory influenced later scholars, such as Du You and Hong Zun, who referenced it in their works, indicating its significant impact on the understanding of currency in ancient society [6]. Group 2: Sima Qian's Contributions - Sima Qian's insights on currency are primarily found in his works "Pingzun Shu" and "Huozhi Liezhuan," where he emphasizes that the rise of various forms of currency is fundamentally linked to the smooth operation of agricultural and commercial exchanges [7]. - He argues that the emergence of currency is a natural result of the interconnectedness of agriculture and commerce, marking a significant departure from the idealistic views of the "Saint King Creation Theory" [7]. - Sima Qian's perspective laid a scientific and objective foundation for the subsequent discussions on the essence of currency, challenging the previously dominant idealistic interpretations [7].

Core Viewpoint - The consumer market in Beijing showed improvement in the first eleven months of the year, with total consumption increasing by 1.4% year-on-year, reflecting a slight recovery in the market [3]. Group 1: Service Consumption - Service consumption in Beijing grew steadily, with a year-on-year increase of 4.8% from January to November. The integration of digital technology into consumer services has led to double-digit growth in information services, driven by internet live streaming, gaming, and lifestyle services [4]. - The tourism sector remained active, with significant increases in air and rail passenger volumes, and revenues from travel agencies and related services grew by over 10% [4]. - The cultural and entertainment services sector saw a richer supply, with box office revenues from movies and performances achieving double-digit growth [4]. Group 2: Retail Sales - The total retail sales of consumer goods in Beijing reached 12,492.9 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decline of 3.1%, but the decline was narrowed by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [5]. - Among major retail categories, sales of gold and silver jewelry and cosmetics grew by 40.5% and 12.3%, respectively. Sales of home appliances and audio-visual equipment increased by 1.3% due to the old-for-new consumption policy [5]. - Basic living goods such as grain and oil saw retail sales increase by 6.9%, while daily necessities grew by 1.2%. However, sales of communication equipment and cultural office supplies declined by 17.4% and 0.8%, respectively [5]. - The automotive market faced challenges, with sales of traditional fuel vehicles declining by 14.8% and petroleum products down by 16.9%. In contrast, sales of new energy vehicles increased by 8.3%, supported by the old-for-new policy and local consumption vouchers [5]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Overall, the Beijing consumer market maintained growth, and the trend of upgrading consumption structure remains unchanged. Future actions will focus on implementing measures to boost consumption, stabilize employment, and expand the supply of quality goods and services to stimulate new consumption vitality [6].

住房和城乡建设部党组书记、部长倪虹在人民日报发表署名文章《推动房地产高质量发展（学习贯彻党的二十届四中全会精神）》。其中提 到，长远看，我国房地产发展仍有较大潜力和空间。推动房地产业从高速增长阶段转向高质量发展阶段，推动房地产企业从追求规模扩张转 为注重提升产品品质和服务，保持房地产市场供需基本平衡、结构基本合理、价格基本稳定，有利于促进我国经济实现质的有效提升和量的 合理增长。 以下为原文： 推动房地产高质量发展（学习贯彻党的二十届四中全会精神） 倪虹 党的二十届四中全会通过的《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》（以下简称《建议》）提出"推动房地产高质 量发展"，这是以习近平同志为核心的党中央面向"十五五"这一新的起点，着眼全局作出的重大决策部署。我们要认真学习领会、全面贯彻落 实，加快构建房地产发展新模式，推动房地产高质量发展。 一、深刻认识推动房地产高质量发展的重要意义 （一）推动房地产高质量发展是满足人民美好生活向往的客观需要。安居是人民群众幸福生活的基点。党的十八大以来，我国房地产市场快 速发展，居民住房条件显著改善，城镇人均住房建筑面积超过40平方米，户均住房超过1.1套。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the concept of "investment in people" as a transformative development ideology that prioritizes human resources as a crucial form of capital, aiming to enhance individual capabilities and improve overall societal value, thereby supporting China's modernization efforts [2]. Summary by Sections Definition and Relationship of "Investment in People" - "Investment in people" refers to allocating more fiscal resources towards education, employment, healthcare, and social security, focusing on enhancing individual capabilities and driving high-quality economic development through human capital [3]. - It contrasts with "investment in material," highlighting a shift from a purely material-focused investment approach to one that recognizes the importance of human development [3]. Economic Growth and Investment Strategies - Traditional economic growth has focused on expanding production capacity, with "investment in material" being favored due to its quicker returns and easier cost-benefit analysis [4]. - However, overemphasis on material investment has led to structural imbalances in supply and demand, with a significant decline in the return on investment in material from 2008 to 2023, indicating a need for a shift towards human-centered investment strategies [4]. Pursuit of Quality of Life - The pursuit of a better life encompasses not only diverse and high-quality consumption but also broader social and individual development goals [5]. - "Investment in people" is positioned as a practical application of the goal to meet the growing needs of the populace, emphasizing the integration of material and human investments [5]. Implications for Domestic Demand and Supply Structure - The article discusses the necessity of improving the interaction between consumption and investment to address domestic demand issues, with a focus on optimizing investment directions to better align with changing consumer needs [6][7]. - It highlights that people are the core of consumption and production, and "investment in people" aims to enhance human capabilities and foster sustainable economic growth [7]. Comprehensive Development and Policy Considerations - "Investment in people" should transcend short-term economic logic, addressing broader human needs, including cultural and spiritual dimensions [8]. - The article advocates for a holistic approach to investment that includes education, healthcare, and environmental considerations, aiming for a sustainable and equitable development model [9][10]. Long-term Goals and Systematic Advantages - The long-term objective of "investment in people" is to achieve comprehensive human development, distinguishing it from other countries' approaches that may reduce human value to mere economic tools [12][13]. - China's unique institutional advantages, such as a people-centered approach and systematic planning, are highlighted as key factors in successfully implementing "investment in people" strategies [13][14]. Future Directions and Implementation Strategies - The article suggests focusing on key areas such as income distribution, public services, and education to effectively "invest in people," while balancing market forces and government roles [17]. - It emphasizes the importance of a long-term perspective in evaluating the effectiveness of such investments, advocating for a comprehensive assessment framework that aligns with the overarching goals of human and societal development [11][15].

Core Insights - The article discusses the overall stability and progress of the national economy in November, highlighting key economic indicators and government policies aimed at boosting consumption and financial collaboration [4][8][12]. Group 1: Economic Performance - In November, the national economy continued to show a stable and progressive development trend, with significant growth in industrial production, particularly in equipment manufacturing and high-tech sectors [8]. - The total grain output for the year is expected to exceed 1.4 trillion jin, indicating a stable agricultural sector [8]. - The consumer price index (CPI) rose by 0.7% year-on-year in November, with a notable increase in food prices, particularly pork, which saw a decrease of 15.0% [14][15]. Group 2: Government Policies - The National Financial Supervision Administration has officially released the "Bank-Insurance Connection System Interface Specification" industry standard, which aims to enhance the efficiency of bank-insurance collaboration and reduce integration costs [10][11]. - The Ministry of Commerce, the People's Bank of China, and the Financial Regulatory Authority jointly issued a notice to strengthen the collaboration between commerce and finance, proposing 11 policy measures to stimulate consumption [12][13]. Group 3: Future Economic Outlook - Han Wenxiu indicated that in 2026, new incremental policies will be introduced based on changing circumstances, aiming to synergize existing policies to promote economic stability and growth [8][10]. - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to lower interest rates by 25 basis points is part of a broader strategy to address economic uncertainties and support the labor market [13].

12月16日出版的第24期《求是》杂志将发表中共中央总书记、国家主席、中央军委主席习近平的重要文章《扩大内需是战略之举》。这是习 近平总书记2015年10月至2025年10月期间有关重要论述的节录。 文章指出，扩大内需既关系经济稳定，也关系经济安全，不是权宜之计，而是战略之举。实施扩大内需战略，是保持我国经济长期持续健康 发展的需要，也是满足人民日益增长的美好生活的需要。要加快补上内需特别是消费短板，使内需成为拉动经济增长的主动力和稳定锚。 文章强调，大国经济的优势就是内部可循环。要牢牢把握扩大内需这一战略基点，使生产、分配、流通、消费各环节更多依托国内市场实现 良性循环。扩大内需和扩大开放并不矛盾。国内循环越顺畅，越能形成对全球资源要素的引力场，越有利于构建以国内大循环为主体、国内 国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局，越有利于形成参与国际竞争和合作新优势。要把扩大内需战略同深化供给侧结构性改革有机结合起来， 供需两端同时发力、协调配合，形成需求牵引供给、供给创造需求的更高水平动态平衡。 文章指出，总需求不足是当前经济运行面临的突出矛盾。要坚决贯彻落实扩大内需战略规划纲要，尽快形成完整内需体系，着力扩大有收入 支 ...

11月份，在以习近平同志为核心的党中央坚强领导下，各地区各部门认真贯彻落实党中央、国务院决策部署，坚持稳中求进工作总基调，深 入实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，着力推动高质量发展，生产供给基本平稳，就业形势总体稳定，市场价格 继续改善，新质生产力稳步发展，经济运行延续总体平稳、稳中有进发展态势。 一、全年粮食实现丰收，稳定在1.4万亿斤以上 全年全国粮食产量14298亿斤，比上年增加167.5亿斤，增长1.2%，稳定在1.4万亿斤以上。其中，秋粮产量10732亿斤，比上年增加163.6亿 斤，增长1.5%。全国谷物产量13204亿斤，比上年增加158.4亿斤，增长1.2%。粮食播种面积增加、单产提高。全国粮食播种面积17.91亿亩， 比上年增加134.8万亩，增长0.1%；粮食单产399.1公斤/亩，每亩产量比上年增加4.4公斤，增长1.1%。 二、工业生产稳定增长，装备制造业和高技术制造业增长较快 11月份，全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长4.8%，环比增长0.44%。分三大门类看，采矿业增加值同比增长6.3%，制造业增长4.6%，电力、 热力、燃气及水生产和供应业增长4.3%。装备制 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transformative impact of artificial intelligence (AI) in the wealth management sector, evolving from a tool for efficiency enhancement to an intelligent partner capable of understanding client needs and providing personalized advice, thereby reshaping service models and customer experiences [3][5]. Research Background - The rapid development of AI technologies, particularly generative AI, is driving a paradigm shift in the global financial industry, with wealth management at its core. The Chinese government's policy support and unique digital ecosystem are facilitating the swift advancement of AI in wealth management [5]. Research Design - A joint online survey conducted by Tsinghua University's Wudaokou School of Finance and Ant Group aimed to analyze the real-world application of AI wealth management tools in China. The survey collected 1,627 valid responses, including 1,514 from individual investors and 113 from institutional research users, ensuring a representative sample [8]. Individual Investors: Market Potential and Experience Pain Points - The survey revealed a significant gap between the recognition and actual use of AI wealth management tools among individual investors. Over half of the respondents had never used such tools, and only 14.8% were deep users, indicating that market penetration is still in its early stages [9]. - Despite low usage rates, users have a strong understanding of AI's core value, with 24.14% appreciating the service's availability, 23.31% valuing the reduction of professional barriers, and 20.69% recognizing the importance of personalized investment advice [11]. - Key application areas for AI tools include investment decision-making, with users primarily utilizing them for product comparison (22.39%), learning financial knowledge (21.48%), and obtaining market insights (21.4%) [11]. - Major experience pain points include overly theoretical responses (23.72%), concerns about product neutrality (20.97%), and insufficient emotional interaction (12.83%), highlighting challenges in transitioning from generalized suggestions to actionable plans [11]. - Individual investors envision AI as a comprehensive financial advisor, desiring roles such as market analyst (26.76%), financial planner (22%), investment behavior coach (19%), knowledge mentor (18.48%), and emotional support partner (11.59%) [11]. Institutional Research Users: Shallow Application and Need for Automation - In contrast to individual investors, institutional users exhibit different application characteristics. While over 70% have encountered AI tools, 63.7% only use them occasionally for reference, with deep reliance at a mere 7.1%, indicating that AI has not yet integrated into core workflows [15].

文/《清华金融评论》 周茗一 近 日 多 家 国 际 机 构 密 集 上 调 20 25 年 中 国 经 济 增 速 预 期 。 其 中 ， 世 界 银 行 、 国 际 货 币 基 金 组 织 、 亚 洲 开 发 银 行 分 别 上 调 0. 4 、 0. 2 、 0. 1 个 百 分 点。多家机构表示，尽管面临冲击，中国经济展现了显著韧性。 12月10日，国际货币基金组织表示，预计2025年中国经济增速将达5%，较今年10月发布的《世界经济展望报告》上调0.2个百分点。当日， 亚洲开发银行表示，得益于中国出口的韧性表现和财政政策持续发力，决定对2025年中国经济增速预期上调0.1个百分点。世界银行、国际 货币基金组织还上调了对明年中国经济增速预期，分别上调0.4、0.3个百分点。 世界银行表示，从全年来看，中国经济表现好于年初预期。中国政府更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策支撑了国内消费和投资。 同时，中国出口市场更加多元化，为保持出口韧性提供了支撑。 对于中国经济增长前景，世界银行中国首席经济学家米丽莎认为，长期来看，中国经济增长潜力仍相当高。通过加强科技创新、提高资源 分配效率等，中国将继续提高生产 ...