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绿色转型背景下关键矿产发展新特征及未来前景|宏观经济
清华金融评论· 2025-09-24 09:08
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the accelerating global carbon neutrality process and the increasing demand for critical minerals driven by the transition to clean energy technologies, highlighting the complex geopolitical competition among major countries in securing these resources [2][3]. Group 1: Importance of Critical Minerals - Critical minerals play an irreplaceable role in high-tech industries, clean energy technologies, and national defense, making supply security a key strategic consideration for countries [5]. - The global energy transition heavily relies on critical minerals, which are essential for ensuring energy security and supporting economic development [6]. Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - The demand for critical minerals is surging, with lithium demand projected to grow nearly 30% in 2024, significantly exceeding the 10% annual growth rate seen in the 2010s [3]. - The demand for nickel, cobalt, graphite, and rare earth elements is expected to increase by 6% to 8% in 2024, primarily driven by applications in electric vehicles, battery storage, renewable energy, and power grids [3]. - The rapid expansion of investments in electric grids in China has been a major factor in the recent growth of copper demand [15]. Group 3: Geopolitical Strategies - Countries are increasingly focusing on critical mineral supply chain security as a core policy issue, employing legislation, policy guidance, and international cooperation to ensure stable supplies [10]. - The U.S. has implemented several legislative actions to enhance domestic supply chain resilience, including the establishment of the Critical Minerals Security Strategy [10]. - The European Union has introduced the Critical Raw Materials Act to ensure the security and sustainability of critical mineral supplies [10]. Group 4: Geographic Distribution and Market Characteristics - The geographical distribution of critical mineral reserves is highly concentrated, with significant shares located in specific regions, such as lithium in the "Lithium Triangle" of South America [13]. - The production of certain critical minerals, like cobalt, is dominated by a few countries, with the Democratic Republic of Congo accounting for 86% of cobalt production [13]. - Western multinational mining companies dominate the ownership of critical mineral resources, leveraging their technological and experiential advantages over developing countries [14]. Group 5: Price Trends - Despite the rapid increase in demand, the supply of critical minerals has also surged, leading to downward pressure on prices, particularly for battery metals [15]. - Lithium prices soared eightfold between 2021 and 2022 but have since dropped by over 80% in 2023 [15]. - Prices for graphite, cobalt, and nickel are expected to decline by 10% to 20% in 2024 [15].
耐心资本服务新质生产力的有效路径|资本市场
清华金融评论· 2025-09-23 10:25
文/ 安徽大学马克思主义学院副教授、中国经济体制改革研究会博士后 罗玉辉 ,安 徽大学马克思主义学院硕士研究生 石璐瑶 作 为 打 通 科 技 创 新 、 产 业 转 型 与 金 融 资 源 的 关 键 桥 梁 , 耐 心 资 本 对 建 立"科技—产业—金融"协同发展机制、加快培育新质生产力具有重要影 响。基于此,培育和壮大耐心资本规模现已成为推进金融供给侧改革、增 强金融服务实体经济能力的重要战略方向。本文探讨耐心资本的内涵与特 征,分析当前耐心资本服务新质生产力面临的主要挑战,并提出科学探索 耐心资本服务新质生产力的路径。 金融是实体经济的血脉,服务实体经济是金融的天职。2024年4月30日,中共中央政治局会议在研究部署"因地制宜发展新质生产力"时,首次明确要求"积 极发展风险投资,壮大耐心资本"。这一重要论述不仅为新质生产力发展指明了方向,也为金融高质量发展提供了行动指南。作为推动高质量发展的核心 引擎,新质生产力代表了当代先进生产力的演进方向。 当前,技术迭代持续加速叠加全球经济不确定性上升,这对企业的可持续发展与长期价值创造构成严重威胁。特别是在生物医药、半导体、新能源等高技 术壁垒行业,传统资本 ...
全球央行议息周落幕,货币政策保持分化|国际
清华金融评论· 2025-09-23 10:25
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent monetary policy decisions made by major central banks, highlighting the divergence in their approaches, which may lead to increased volatility in global financial markets and a new phase in economic dynamics [2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 4.00% to 4.25%, marking its first rate cut in nine months [4]. - The Fed's decision reflects a cautious balance between employment and inflation goals, with indications of a cooling labor market and rising inflation levels [4]. - The updated dot plot suggests an additional 50 basis points cut by the end of the year, followed by 25 basis points cuts in each of the next two years [4]. Group 2: Bank of Canada - The Bank of Canada also cut its overnight rate by 25 basis points to 2.5%, its first reduction in six months, following a cumulative decrease of 225 basis points since June 2024 [6]. - The decision was driven by a weakening economy, with a 1.5% decline in GDP and ongoing job market challenges, while inflation risks have diminished [6]. - The Bank will closely monitor export conditions and the overall economic impact of these trends [6]. Group 3: Bank of England - The Bank of England decided to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 4%, pausing its previous rate cuts [8]. - The UK labor market is showing signs of slowdown, with inflation remaining high at 3.8% in August, expected to rise to around 4% in September [8]. - The Bank plans to reduce its holdings of UK government bonds by £70 billion over the next 12 months as part of its monetary policy adjustments [8]. Group 4: Bank of Japan - The Bank of Japan kept its benchmark rate unchanged at 0.5%, while indicating potential future rate increases depending on economic and inflation forecasts [10]. - Japan's economy is gradually recovering, but short-term growth may be pressured by global economic slowdowns [10]. - Current inflation rates are between 2.5% and 2.9%, with expectations for gradual increases supported by improving economic conditions [10]. Group 5: Market Reactions - The decisions from the Federal Reserve, Bank of Canada, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan align with market expectations, indicating that the market has already priced in the anticipated rate cuts and policy stances [10].
潘功胜、李云泽、吴清、朱鹤新今日重磅发声 ! | 宏观经济
清华金融评论· 2025-09-22 11:08
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant achievements of China's financial sector during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, highlighting reforms, risk management, and the enhancement of financial services to support the real economy. Group 1: Financial Sector Achievements - China's financial sector has made substantial progress, with total banking assets reaching nearly 470 trillion yuan, ranking first globally, and stock and bond market sizes ranking second worldwide [4] - The financial system has seen a comprehensive deepening of reforms, with improved governance and a more robust financial service framework, leading to enhanced quality, efficiency, and inclusiveness of financial services [4][5] - The average annual growth rate of loans to technology-based small and medium-sized enterprises, inclusive micro-enterprises, and green loans exceeded 20% during the "14th Five-Year Plan" [5] Group 2: Financial Risk Management - Significant progress has been made in preventing and resolving financial risks, with a focus on orderly handling of key risk areas and maintaining the stability of the financial system [6][14] - The financial system remains generally stable, with financial institutions in good health and the market operating smoothly [6][14] - The article emphasizes the importance of a unified leadership from the central government in managing financial risks effectively [15] Group 3: Financial Market Development - The capital market has seen a notable increase in the proportion of technology sector market capitalization, now exceeding 25%, which is significantly higher than the combined market capitalization of banking, non-banking financial, and real estate sectors [26][27] - The regulatory framework for capital markets has been strengthened, with the implementation of new securities laws and the establishment of a more comprehensive market system [26][28] - The article highlights the improvement in market transparency and fairness, with increased enforcement against financial misconduct [27] Group 4: Future Directions - The People's Bank of China plans to continue deepening reforms and enhancing the central bank's macro-prudential and financial stability functions to support high-quality economic development [10][16] - There is a commitment to maintaining a balance between growth and risk prevention, ensuring the stability of the financial market and the renminbi exchange rate [11][17] - The focus will be on further enhancing the openness of the financial sector and improving the regulatory framework to support a higher level of financial security [22][33]
浅谈适当性管理新规下的金融消费者权益保护丨金融普及教育专题
清华金融评论· 2025-09-22 11:08
编 者 按 随着我国金融市场创新发展,金融产品日益多元化,金融消费者面临的选择越来越多,风险随之增加,金融消 费者权益保护面临的挑战也更加严峻。而《金融机构产品适当性管理办法》的出台,通过强制匹配机制、行为禁令 等约束,使金融机构产品销售进入了"以适配为核心、以责任为底线"的新阶段,对金融机构践行以人民为中心的价 值取向,帮助金融消费者更好地理解并保障自身权益提供了新的方向指引。 文 /天 津农商银行消费者权益保护办公室 适当性管理新规让金融消费者权益保护关口前移 适当性管理是指金融机构根据产品的基本属性、风险特征等,结合客户金融需求、财务状况、风险承 受能力等因素,开展识别、提示、匹配、销售、交易等活动,它作为连接金融机构与客户的信任桥 梁,对于保护消费者合法权益和维护金融市场稳定具有重要意义。 对金融消费者而言,适当性管理就像一道"防火墙",有助于金融消费者在充分了解相关金融产品、投 资活动的性质及风险的基础上,根据自身需求和风险承受能力作出自主决定,选择适当产品,并承受 由此产生的收益和风险,一定程度上减少了超出自身能力的支出和风险损失。 对金融机构而言,适当性管理不仅是合规管理的需要,更是金融机构长期 ...
中美元首通话;北京、上海同日宣布调整住房公积金缴存基数上下限|每周金融评论(2025.9.15-2025.9.21)
清华金融评论· 2025-09-22 11:08
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses recent developments in China-US relations, regulatory changes in the banking sector, adjustments in housing policies, and economic measures aimed at supporting families and the real estate market, highlighting the importance of cooperation between the two largest economies and the implications of domestic policies on economic stability and growth [4][6][8][12]. Group 1: China-US Relations - On September 19, Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Trump held a phone call to discuss the current state of China-US relations, emphasizing the importance of cooperation for mutual prosperity and global stability [4]. - This call followed four rounds of economic talks, indicating a commitment to addressing outstanding issues and fostering a constructive relationship [5]. Group 2: Banking Sector Regulation - The State Council, led by Premier Li Qiang, approved the draft revision of the "Banking Supervision Law of the People's Republic of China," aimed at enhancing the regulatory framework for the banking sector [6]. - The revision is intended to address market irregularities and financial risks, ensuring the healthy development of the banking industry [6]. Group 3: Housing Policies - On September 18, new regulations for housing provident fund contributions were announced in Beijing and Shanghai, adjusting the contribution limits to support housing affordability [9][11]. - The adjustments include a maximum contribution base of 35,811 yuan in Beijing and 37,302 yuan in Shanghai, with minimums set at 2,540 yuan and 2,690 yuan respectively [9]. Group 4: Economic Measures - The introduction of a new childcare subsidy management regulation aims to streamline the application process and enhance support for families, indicating a shift towards a more structured national policy [7][8]. - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25% is seen as a response to economic concerns, potentially benefiting the Chinese market through increased foreign investment [12]. Group 5: Market Developments - Four A-share companies were flagged for financial misconduct, reflecting a stringent regulatory stance against fraud in the capital markets [13]. - The latest Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remains unchanged at 3.0% for one year and 3.5% for five years, indicating stability in lending rates amidst market expectations for potential future adjustments [14].
郑栅洁:加快稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期,常态化开展政策预研储备|宏观经济
清华金融评论· 2025-09-21 11:02
文/ 国家发展和改革委员会主任 郑栅洁 受国务院委托,国家发展改革委主任郑栅洁9月1 0日向全国人大常委会报 告今年以来国民经济和社会发展计划执行情况。郑栅洁表示,做好下半年 经济工作,要坚持稳中求进工作总基调,完整准确全面贯彻新发展理念, 加快构建新发展格局,更好统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争,统筹高质 量发展和高水平安全,保持政策连续性稳定性,增强灵活性预见性,着力 稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期,有力促进国内国际双循环,统筹推动 物价水平合理回升、社会就业大局稳定与经济增长,稳住经济基本盘,努 力完成全年经济社会发展目标任务。 围绕下半年经济工作, 郑栅洁 指出,实施好党中央部署的各项政策措施,不断释放内需潜力,进一步推动科技创新和产业创新深度融合,坚定不 移深化改革扩大开放,持续用力防范化解重点领域风险,全面推进区域协调发展和城乡融合发展,以碳排放双控全面转型推动绿色低碳发展,多措 并举保障改善民生,加强重点领域安全能力建设。 在实施好党中央部署的各项政策措施方面, 郑栅洁 指出,加快落实中央经济工作会议等各项部署,加快稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期,推动 相关举措落地见效。落实落细更加积极的财政政策 ...
近代中国财政对中央银行独立性的影响|金融人文
清华金融评论· 2025-09-21 11:02
文/ 瑞淼资本管理有限公司董事长、上海社会科学院经济研究所博士生 孟郁聪 中央银行的独立性是其有效履行职能的关键。近代中国战乱频仍,政府财 政始终十分窘迫。在这样的背景下,中央银行艰难前行,其独立性从晚清 成立伊始就受到财政影响,在北洋时期尚能保持一定的独立性,在南京国 民政府时期则逐渐完全沦为财政附庸。这一史实表明,政府财政过度影响 中央银行独立性会产生严重问题,值得警醒。 近代中国战乱频仍,政府财政始终十分窘迫。在这样的背景下,中央银行艰难前行,其独立性从晚清成立伊始就受到财政影响,在北洋时期尚能保持一定 的独立性,在南京国民政府时期则逐渐完全沦为财政附庸。近代中国中央银行面临的问题与当前有很大不同。然而,研究近代中国财政对中央银行独立性 的影响,仍能有所启示。 清末,中央财政在战争赔款、地方财政失控、传统农业税收入锐减等多重压力下入不敷出。为了挽救财政危机,清政府除采取盐斤加价、发行公债、成立 地方清理财政局等措施以外,还决定借鉴西方金融制度设立中央银行。1905年清政府设立的大清户部银行,被视为中国最早的中央银行。1908年,该行改 名大清银行。大清银行统一发行货币,取代地方和民间金融机构滥发的纸币, ...
舌战玖安,央财北交“险”胜|南京大学、四川大学荣获第二届“中邮保险·紫荆杯” 全国高校金融普及教育辩论赛季军
清华金融评论· 2025-09-20 09:54
思辨特色金融文化,筑基国民金融素养。 9 月 15 日至 21 日,金融监管总局、中国人民银行、中国证监会联合开展以 " 保障金融权益,助力美好生活 " 为主题的金融教育宣传周活动。 9月19日, 为积极响应监管号召,清华五道口联合中邮保险主办,《清华金融评论》编辑部承办的第二届 " 中邮保 险 · 紫荆杯 " 全国高校金融普及教育辩论赛,在中邮保险玖安广场圆满落幕。本次活动自 8 月推出以来,共收到全国 48 所高校报名参赛,最终 4 支队 伍进入半决赛。 经过激烈角逐,北京交通大学辩论队和中央财经大学辩论队两支队伍成功晋级总决赛,南京大学辩论队和四川大学辩论队荣获本届大 赛季军。 首届"紫荆杯"辩论赛冠军及最佳辩手叶铖浩主持本场大赛。 清华大学五道口金融学院党委委员、院长助理、《清华金融评论》执行主编张伟 代表主办方对四支进入半决赛的队伍表示祝贺! 张伟表示:习近平总 书记在中央金融工作会议上,深刻阐释了中国特色金融发展之路的基本要义。 坚持以人民为中心的价值取向,是金融工作的根本遵循之一。 通过教育 手段向公众传授金融知识和技能,提高公众对金融事务的认知水平和理解能力,是践行金融为民的内在要求,更是金融 ...
《保险业高质量发展背景下的中国家庭风险保障体系白皮书》:供需存在四大错配
清华金融评论· 2025-09-20 09:54
Core Insights - The white paper on the risk protection system for Chinese families highlights that the insurance industry in China is at a critical transformation point, transitioning from institutional-driven growth to economy-driven growth, with significant opportunities ahead as the per capita GDP is around $13,500, close to the elasticity peak of $10,000 [2][4]. Industry Overview - As of the end of 2024, China has 239 insurance institutions with total assets of 359,058 billion yuan and net assets of 33,247 billion yuan. The total insurance premium income for 2024 is projected to reach 56,963 billion yuan, with a financial return rate of 3.43% and a comprehensive return rate of 7.21% [4]. - The comprehensive solvency adequacy ratio of insurance companies is 199.4%, and the core solvency adequacy ratio is 139.1%, indicating a solid foundation for sustainable development [4]. Policy Environment - The Chinese government has introduced several policies to support the insurance industry's development, including the strategic goal of building a multi-level social security system, which creates a favorable environment for high-quality development [5]. - The recent "Opinions on Strengthening Supervision and Preventing Risks to Promote High-Quality Development of the Insurance Industry" outlines development goals for 2029 and 2035, serving as a guiding document for the next five to ten years [5]. Changing Family Risk Structure - Families in China are facing challenges such as slowing income growth, increased employment and debt risks, currency asset depreciation, and reduced investment returns, leading to a shift in risk perception [7]. - A survey indicates that modern families are increasingly concerned about health, retirement planning, children's education, wealth security, and inheritance, reflecting a strong demand for certainty and sustainability [8]. Supply-Demand Mismatch - The insurance industry has not adequately adjusted to changing consumer needs, resulting in four key mismatches: 1. Individualized needs versus standardized supply [9]. 2. Insufficient health coverage despite high demand [9]. 3. Short-term supply versus long-term wealth management needs [9]. 4. Diverse retirement needs versus weak collaborative supply [9]. Recommendations for Improvement - The white paper suggests several strategies to enhance the insurance industry's service capabilities: 1. **Precise Risk Identification**: Shift from a product-oriented approach to a family needs-oriented approach, identifying risks based on family lifecycle and wealth levels [12]. 2. **Scientific Risk Assessment**: Utilize a "Family Risk Defense Index Model" to balance adequate coverage with cost, allowing families to anticipate uncertainties [13]. 3. **Efficient Risk Solutions**: Develop a comprehensive product system that addresses the full lifecycle of family risks, including health, retirement, wealth preservation, and inheritance [14]. 4. **Long-term Risk Management**: Integrate resources to create a high-quality service ecosystem that addresses the growing demand for elderly care and health management [16].