Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rapid development and regulatory changes surrounding fiat stablecoins, particularly in the context of recent legislative actions in the US and Hong Kong, which are expected to significantly impact the cryptocurrency market and the role of stablecoins in the financial system [3][13]. Summary by Sections Development of Dollar Stablecoins - The emergence of dollar stablecoins, such as USDT and USDC, has been pivotal in bridging the gap between cryptocurrency and fiat currency, enabling 24/7 global transactions [8][10]. - USDT, issued by Tether, has been operational for over 10 years, but concerns about its reserve transparency and regulatory oversight persist [9][10]. Regulatory Changes and Implications - Recent legislative actions, including the US Senate's passage of the Stablecoin Innovation Act and Hong Kong's Stablecoin Ordinance, are accelerating the regulatory framework for fiat stablecoins globally [13][14]. - The regulation aims to prevent the over-issuance of stablecoins, ensuring they are backed by sufficient fiat reserves and subject to independent audits [14][15]. Market Impact and Future Trends - The market capitalization of dollar stablecoins has rapidly increased, with projections indicating that by April 2025, it could exceed $240 billion, accounting for over 99% of the global fiat stablecoin market [15]. - The rise of stablecoins is reshaping payment systems, potentially leading to a shift towards a distributed ledger technology-based financial infrastructure [15][16]. Strategic Considerations for China - The rapid development of dollar stablecoins poses challenges for the internationalization of the Chinese yuan, necessitating adjustments in policies regarding cryptocurrency and stablecoin development [19][20]. - The article suggests that China should leverage its advancements in digital identity and digital currency to enhance its competitive position in the global digital finance landscape [20].

文/清华大学五道口金融学院全球家族企业研究中心主任 高皓 ，清华大学五道口 金融学院全球家族企业研究中心高级研究专员 孙子谋 挪威政府全球养老基金是当前全球范围内管理资产规模最大的主权财富基 金，也是全球股票市场上最大的单一投资者。本文探讨该主权财富基金的 基准投资组合策略及透明治理机制，分析其长期投资框架下的被动敞口管 理，并从大类资产和国别视角出发，对投资进行分析和评价。 挪威政府全球养老基金（Government Pension Fund Global，以下简称GPFG）是当前全球范围内管 理资产规模最大的主权财富基金，也是全球股票市场上最大的单一投资者。截至2025年3月， GPFG资产规模已达1.73万亿美元，所投资的上市公司遍布全球70多个国家和地区，数量超过9000 家。 依据挪威财政部的监管框架，GPFG由挪威央行投资管理部（NBIM）进行运营管理，建立了以股 票和固定收益为核心的基准投资组合配置体系，并将货币风险管理作为全球投资组合管理的关键 环节。GPFG的透明治理机制和严格财政规则，确保了石油收入的跨代公平分配，防止资源繁荣 期过度财政扩张可能带来的经济波动风险。这些特点都使GPFG在全 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese economy is expected to maintain a relatively good performance in the short term, primarily due to backlog orders in the export sector and the positive impact of the "trade-in" policy on retail [2][3][5]. Short-term Economic Analysis - In the next couple of months, China's export growth is likely to remain high, potentially close to April's 8% growth, driven by backlog orders and the upcoming trade negotiations [3][5]. - The GDP growth for the second quarter is projected to be around 4.8%, but challenges are anticipated in the second half of the year due to several factors [3][5]. - The increase in tariffs on Chinese products by the U.S. has risen by approximately 35 percentage points, significantly impacting exports, especially with the tariff on small packages rising to about 54% [5][6]. - The positive effects of the "trade-in" policies for durable goods are expected to diminish in the latter half of the year, leading to potential negative effects on consumption [6]. - The real estate sector, crucial for domestic demand, is in its fifth year of decline, with new housing starts down by 22% year-on-year, complicating efforts to stabilize domestic demand [6]. Policy Recommendations - The Chinese government has effectively intervened in the stock market and maintained the stability of the RMB against the USD, which is crucial for economic stability [9][10]. - Further fiscal policies should be considered to accelerate spending and debt issuance, especially in light of anticipated declines in export growth [10]. - Stabilizing the real estate market is critical, requiring measures beyond traditional tools like interest rate cuts, including allowing necessary bankruptcies and ensuring the completion of pre-sold properties [10][11]. - Structural reforms in the social security system are needed to enhance the income levels of the elderly, which could improve consumption capacity and alleviate burdens on migrant workers [11]. - Fiscal reform is essential to improve local government finances and create independent revenue sources beyond real estate, which is vital for enhancing the business environment and stimulating domestic demand [12].

Financial Weekly 每周金融评论 目录 CONTENTS 热点聚焦 FOCUS ◎ 张国清:构建平台经济良好生态,做强国内大循环 MEETINGS ◎ 中国人民银行与印度尼西亚银行签署《促进双边本币结算合作 框架的谅解备忘录》 重大政策 POLICIES ◎ 中办、国办印发《关于完善中国特色现代企业制度的意见》 重大事件 EVENTS ◎ 欧盟:准备采取针对美国的反制措施 中共中央政治局委员、国务院副总理张国清5月27日至28日在上海市调研促进平台经济健康发展和市场监管有关工作。他强调， 平台经济在促进创新创业、做强国内大循环等方面发挥着重要作用。平台企业要把流量资源用于支持高质量产品和服务，与平台 内商户、新就业形态劳动者、消费者等相关方实现互利共赢，共同推进平台经济健康发展。 《清华金融评论》观察 市场监管工作直接关系人民群众切身利益和经营主体权益，必须持续提升治理能力，更好服务经济社会高质量发展。要深化市场 监管领域改革，加快清理妨碍统一市场和公平竞争的各种规定和做法，强化新经济、新业态监管制度供给，完善市场准入退出机 制，激发经营主体活力。要加强监管执法能力建设，加大涉企违规收费整治力度 ...

Core Viewpoint - The research paper explores how carbon reduction support tools under China's "dual carbon" goals can enhance the market value of commercial banks while fulfilling their environmental responsibilities [2][5]. Group 1: Research Framework and Background - The study employs a "signal transmission - reputation accumulation - risk governance" three-dimensional analysis framework to explain how structural monetary policy tools reshape the value creation logic of commercial banks [2][4]. - Green finance is highlighted as a bridge for integrating environmental governance with economic growth, with commercial banks playing a crucial role in green credit practices [2]. Group 2: Impact of Carbon Reduction Support Tools - The introduction of carbon reduction support tools by the People's Bank of China has linked low-interest re-lending funds directly to banks' green loan performance, aiming to guide financial resources towards green low-carbon sectors [2][5]. - The research indicates that these tools effectively enhance banks' market value through three key mechanisms: signal transmission, market reputation, and risk governance [5]. Group 3: Empirical Analysis - The first part of the empirical analysis uses a difference-in-differences model with data from 42 A-share listed commercial banks between 2020 and Q1 2023, finding that carbon reduction loans significantly increase banks' market value [6]. - The second part validates the effectiveness of the three mechanisms: - The signal transmission effect is evidenced by increased stock liquidity due to reduced information asymmetry [7]. - The market reputation effect is shown through increased positive discussions and interactions on social media platforms following banks' participation in carbon reduction loans [7]. - The risk governance effect is demonstrated by improved liquidity and risk resistance in banks that participated in the carbon reduction support tools [7]. Group 4: Policy Implications - The study suggests that carbon reduction loans in energy-saving and clean energy sectors have the most significant impact on enhancing banks' market value, indicating a need for regulatory focus in future policy designs [7]. - It also notes that carbon reduction loans, supported by low-interest central bank funds, have a more pronounced effect on banks' market value compared to regular green loans, recommending an expansion of such tools' application [7].

以下文章来源于中国宏观经济论坛 CMF ，作者刘尚希 中国宏观经济论坛 CMF . 创立于2006年，由中国人民大学国发院、经济学院、中诚信国际信用评级有限公司联合主办。依托人大经济学一级学科排名全国第一的 优秀研究力量，诚邀社会知名专家，集中从事中国宏观经济动态和重大经济问题研究，定期发布分析与预测报告。 文/中国财政科学研究院原院长 刘尚希 地方收入有所增加，而支出增幅较小，显示出地方支出难以扩张。在地方 支出占比很大的情况下，这影响宏观调控的效果。因此，要实现更有效的 财政政策，必须改革央地财政关系，尤其是提高中央本级支出的占比。这 一 改革对于推动投资 和消费的协 同发展和 人本逻 辑 机制化 体制化至 关 重 要，且在当前经济形势下尤为迫切。 投资与消费是一体两面的关系 今天围绕投资与消费的关系，探讨财政政策应偏重于消费还是投资。这个问题的提出实际上将本质上一体的问题割裂开来了，用于投资 和用于消费都是政府的支出，是政府支出扩张中的结构问题。当前需要关注的首先是政府支出扩张的力度，其次才是政府支出的结构优 化。支出扩张的力度决定了扩大总需求目标的实现程度。从经济循环角度来看，投资与消费是相辅相成的， ...

白银—制钱"双重货币本位制 自明末"一条鞭法"开始，中国开始广泛使用白银作为流通货币，到了清朝初期，白银已经成为主要的官 方货币，用于支付赋税或者完成跨省大规模交易；另一方面，政府铸造的制钱，则用于地方的小额零售 交易；在西南省份以及核心省区的某些边陲地区，由于运输上的花费，民间银两的使用甚至多于制钱。 整体而言，近代中国虽然存在着许多区域经济体，但白银好像血液系统一样将这些区域经济连成一体。 在"白银—制钱"的双重本位制下，19世纪前期，市场供应的白银价格相对于政府铸造的制钱波动剧烈， 最高增加了2.5倍，形成了"银贵钱贱危机"，对中国的经济社会造成了深刻的影响。 究其原因，近代中国流通的白银主要依赖于国外输入，因而不可避免地受到国际冲击的影响。1540年左 右，日本开始向中国出口白银，用以交换中国的丝绸、衣服、漆器等物品。但由于矿山的损耗，日本出 口到中国的白银在17世纪已经逐渐减少；与此同时，来自拉美的白银开始大量涌入中国。到了18世纪， 英国成为将拉丁美洲白银输往中国最重要的欧洲国家。 根据严中平在《中国近代经济史统计资料选辑》中的数据，由于茶叶在英国的普遍饮用，中国的茶叶是 18世纪中国对英出口贸易 ...

文/中央财经大学绿色金融国际研究院首席经济学家 刘锋 本 文 聚 焦 2 0 2 5 年 全 球 贸 易 格 局大变 革 背景 下， 逆 全球 化 与 " 对 等 关 税"政策对全球资产配置的深远影响。通过剖析传统资产配置理论面 临的挑战，基于"三重框架+五维穿透"理论体系，深入探讨资产配置 新逻辑，从多维度阐述全球资产配置范式重构、投资者应对策略及 未来资产价格驱动逻辑变革，为投资者在复杂多变的市场环境中提 供理论指引与实践参考。 在全球化进程中，全球资产配置曾是投资者获取稳定收益、分散风险的重要手段。然而近年来， 逆全球化趋势加剧，美国的"对等关税"举措给全球经济和金融市场带来巨大冲击，对华加征关税 的"对等报复"措施成为全球产业链、价值链重构的关键催化剂。这一举措不仅是贸易政策的重大 单边转向，更使得全球经济环境变得错综复杂。 在此背景下，传统资产配置理论遭遇前所未有的挑战，原有的风险评估、收益预期和资产定价逻 辑亟待更新。深入研究逆全球化重构与"对等关税"冲击下的全球资产配置新范式，对于投资者规 避风险、实现资产保值增值，以及金融市场的稳定发展具有重要的理论与现实意义。本文基 于"三重框架+五维穿透" ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing weakening of the US dollar, which has fallen below the critical level of 100, and its implications for global asset allocation, particularly in Asia [3]. Group 1: Dollar Weakness and Global Impact - The US dollar is in a weak cycle due to the Federal Reserve's policy shifts, increasing fiscal deficits, and a global trend towards de-dollarization [3]. - There have been five instances of simultaneous declines in stocks, bonds, and the dollar this year, indicating deepening economic contradictions in the US [3]. - Asian currencies are experiencing collective appreciation, with the Japanese yen rising by 10%, the New Taiwan dollar by 9%, and other major Asian currencies increasing by 3%-7% [3]. Group 2: Hong Kong Market Dynamics - The Hong Kong dollar has seen significant liquidity injections from the Monetary Authority, with interbank borrowing rates dropping from 4% to 0.6%, encouraging leveraged investments in stocks and real estate [5]. - The influx of talent is evident as local universities expand enrollment, with the University of Hong Kong's business school increasing its master's program from 300 to 5,000 students annually [5]. - The IPO market in Hong Kong is recovering, with 70 new listings in Q1 2023, and expectations for the total IPO scale to exceed HKD 400 billion for the year [7]. Group 3: Global Asset Allocation Strategy - The S&P 500's forward P/E ratio remains high at 29, with tech giants at historical valuation premiums, suggesting a need to reduce exposure to US equities [9]. - The 10-year US Treasury yield has rebounded to 4.5%, with significant rollover pressures from maturing debt, leading to a recommendation to avoid short-term volatility risks in US Treasuries [9]. - Japanese assets are being revalued, with a 60% increase in core Tokyo property prices over three years, and a high employment rate among graduates attracting middle-class families [9]. Group 4: Investment Strategy Recommendations - In the current transition period, the recommended asset allocation includes 15% in insurance products, 5.2% yield Asian dollar bonds, and a focus on equities with 40% in Hong Kong stocks, 25% in Japanese stocks, and 20% in high-dividend A-shares [11]. - Alternative assets should include 10% in gold and 5% in Bitcoin, with a strategy to increase holdings in the Chinese yuan and yen while reducing US dollar exposure to below 30% [11].

当地时间5月29日，美国联邦巡回上诉法院批准特朗普政府的请求，暂时搁置美国国际贸易法院此前作 出的禁止执行特朗普政府依据《国际紧急经济权力法》对多国加征关税措施的行政令的裁决。 联邦巡回上诉法院在裁决书中指出，美国政府的请求已获批准，在本法院审议相关动议文件期间，美国 国际贸易法院在这些案件中作出的判决和永久性禁令将暂时中止，直至另行通知。 特朗普政府早些时候向该上诉法院表示，如果禁止关税执行的裁决不能被迅速暂停，政府将最早于5月 30日向最高法院寻求紧急帮助。 文/《清华金融评论》 王茅 美国关税问题再度反转，美国联邦巡回上诉法院批准特朗普政府的请求， 暂时搁置美国国际贸易法院此前作出的禁止执行特朗普政府依据《国际紧 急经济权力法》对多国加征关税措施的行政令的裁决。这导致先前因为裁 定特朗普越权而上升的市场风险偏好再度回落。 美国联邦巡回上诉法院"叫停"美国国际贸易法院的裁决 特朗普政府关税政策的命运真可谓"一波三折"，先是被美国国际贸易法院的裁决"叫停"，特朗普政府对 此很快提起上诉，过了一天上诉法院又"叫停"了美国国际贸易法院的裁决。 4月以来，特朗普政府对各国极限施压并不断反复，其目的在于通过关税手段 ...