清华金融评论
Search documents
七家协会联合发布关于防范涉虚拟货币等非法活动的风险提示|政策与监管
清华金融评论· 2025-12-06 10:28
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the risks associated with virtual currencies and related activities, highlighting that they are not recognized as legal tender in China and warning against illegal financial activities linked to them [1][3][4]. Group 1: Nature of Virtual Currencies - Virtual currencies are not issued by monetary authorities and do not hold the same legal status as national legal tender, thus cannot be circulated as currency within China [1][3]. - Certain virtual currencies, such as "air coins" (e.g., π coin), lack substantial technological innovation and clear commercial applications, leading to significant fraud and market manipulation issues [3][5]. - Stablecoins currently fail to meet customer identification and anti-money laundering requirements, posing risks of being used for money laundering and fraudulent fundraising [3][5]. Group 2: Prohibited Activities - Domestic institutions and individuals engaging in the exchange of legal currency for virtual currencies or issuing and financing real-world asset tokens are involved in illegal financial activities [4][5]. - Member institutions are prohibited from participating in the issuance and trading of virtual currencies and real-world asset tokens, and must not provide any related services [5]. - Financial institutions must conduct thorough customer due diligence to identify potential risks related to virtual currencies and report any suspicious activities to relevant authorities [5]. Group 3: Public Awareness and Caution - The public is urged to remain vigilant against various forms of virtual currency and real-world asset token activities, which are often linked to speculation and fraud [5]. - Individuals should enhance their risk awareness and avoid participating in virtual currency-related activities, including illegal fundraising under the guise of "mining" [5]. - Any suspicious activities related to virtual currencies should be reported to regulatory authorities or law enforcement [5].
2026年资本市场展望——待到山花烂漫时|资本市场
清华金融评论· 2025-12-06 10:28
Core Viewpoint - The performance of the capital market in 2026 will largely depend on investors' expectations regarding medium- to long-term fundamentals, with a focus on China's role in providing global public goods and building a modern industrial system domestically [3]. Group 1: Characteristics of a Financial Power - A strong and confident approach to opening up is essential for China's capital market to evolve into a financial power, supported by the country's rising global position and initiatives like the Belt and Road [5]. - The stock market's equity risk premium in China is significantly higher than in the U.S., indicating a need for improved market confidence and a potential for valuation adjustments [5][6]. - The historical valuation comparisons may become less relevant as the market evolves, suggesting that simplistic analyses may not capture the future dynamics [6]. Group 2: Market Resilience and Shareholder Returns - The capital market must maintain resilience and reduce volatility to attract global investors, with mechanisms in place to stabilize market sentiment during uncertainties [7][8]. - High dividend payouts from state-owned enterprises are seen as a positive shift in corporate governance, enhancing shareholder returns and attracting long-term capital [8]. - The current dividend yield of the CSI 300 index remains attractive compared to the ten-year government bond yield, indicating a solid foundation for patient capital [8]. Group 3: Future Pricing and Market Dynamics - The decline in equity risk premium will depend on China's ability to convert its national and cultural influence into sustainable pricing power within global supply chains [9]. - The manufacturing sector's contribution to global value added is projected to be significant, with a potential increase in competitive advantages in key areas [9]. - The focus should be on creating a sustainable profit ecosystem rather than relying on excessive competition, which could enhance overall market dynamics [10]. Group 4: Capital Market Pricing and Future Industries - The capital market needs to develop a pricing mechanism for future industries, moving beyond traditional valuation methods that do not align with the potential of innovative companies [11]. - The ability to price future industries effectively will contribute to a reduction in equity risk premiums, reflecting a more mature market [11]. Group 5: Economic Indicators and Market Outlook - The core driver of asset prices in 2026 is expected to be the Producer Price Index (PPI), which, along with housing prices, will influence market dynamics [13]. - A potential rebound in profits for A-share companies is anticipated, with projections indicating a significant increase in net profits for non-financial sectors [14]. - The convergence of improving corporate fundamentals, emerging industry trends, and increased global influence is expected to support a bullish market outlook for A-shares [14].
2025上市公司与金融机构可持续发展典型案例征集
清华金融评论· 2025-12-05 10:23
随着国家正式启动"十五五"规划的宏伟蓝图,可持续发展正从一项关键战略,升级为衡量未来经济高质量发展的重要标尺。在此承前启后的 关键时刻,2025年成为中国可持续发展进程从"理念构建"迈向"实践深化"的关键年份。 企业非财务信息披露正经历一场深刻的"范式迁移"。 国务院国资委、证监会及沪深北交易所密集出台《央企ESG专项行动指南(2025)》、《上市公司信息披露管理办法》、《上市公司自律监管指 引——可持续发展报告(试行)》等相关政策,明确要求将可持续发展纳入公司治理核心,推动信息披露从"可选披露"迈向"规范披露"。 在此新周期下,金融机构作为资源配置的核心,已从理念倡导者转变为关键行动者。银行、保险、资管等机构正将ESG深度融入其战略与业 务流程,通过大力发展绿色金融、创新可持续金融产品、践行负责任投资、强化环境风险管理等一系列努力,精准引导金融活水支持实体经 济绿色低碳转型。 为系统梳理并推广实践,《清华金融评论》正式启动"2025可持续发展典型案例征集"活动,旨在搭建一个高层次的实践交流平台,通过征 集、遴选并展示在绿色金融、社会责任及可持续发展治理等领域的优秀案例,树立行业标杆,促进经验共享,共同助力中 ...
管涛:不宜押注人民币汇率的单边走势|宏观经济
清华金融评论· 2025-12-05 10:23
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance of the Chinese yuan (RMB) against the US dollar, highlighting a rebound in the RMB exchange rate after a prolonged period of depreciation, and emphasizes the need for adaptability to a new normal of two-way fluctuations in the currency market [1][2]. Summary by Sections RMB Exchange Rate Performance - In 2023, the RMB has shown resilience against external shocks, with the onshore RMB appreciating by 1.55% in the first eleven months, the spot exchange rate rising by 3.10%, and the offshore RMB (CNH) increasing by 3.76% [1]. - The RMB exchange rate has experienced a significant narrowing of volatility, with the maximum fluctuation of the onshore midpoint rate at 1.9%, the lowest since 2016, and the spot rate's maximum fluctuation at 3.8%, also the lowest since 2016 [4]. Stability Measures and Market Reactions - The Chinese government has emphasized maintaining the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level, which has led to reduced exchange rate elasticity and suppressed depreciation pressures [5][4]. - In September, the bank's foreign exchange settlement surplus surged to $73.4 billion, the second-highest since the 2015 exchange rate reform, but dropped to $27.3 billion in October, indicating that the market's expectations for RMB appreciation may have been overstated [8]. Factors Influencing Future RMB Trends - Several factors are contributing to the recent optimism regarding the RMB, including potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, discussions between Chinese and US leaders, and the possibility of a more stable US-China trade relationship [10][11]. - The Chinese economy is expected to continue its recovery, supported by proactive macroeconomic policies and structural reforms aimed at enhancing productivity and innovation [12]. Challenges and Uncertainties - Despite positive trends, the RMB faces uncertainties due to domestic economic challenges, external trade environment fluctuations, and the potential strength of the US dollar [13][14][15]. - The article suggests that while the RMB may break the 7.0 mark against the dollar, its ability to maintain stability below this level remains uncertain, depending on future policy directions and market conditions [16].
金融监管总局发布重磅利好!
清华金融评论· 2025-12-05 08:06
Core Viewpoint - The recent notification from the National Financial Supervisory Administration adjusts risk factors for insurance companies' related businesses, aiming to enhance long-term investment management and support the real economy while maintaining risk control [2][4]. Group 1: Background of the Notification - The notification was issued to effectively prevent risks, guide insurance companies in improving long-term investment management capabilities, and strengthen asset-liability matching management [4]. - It aims to better utilize insurance funds as patient capital and effectively serve the real economy [4]. Group 2: Impact on the Insurance Industry - The notification adjusts risk factors for investments in specific stock indices, such as the CSI 300 and the CSI Dividend Low Volatility 100, based on holding periods to cultivate patient capital and support technological innovation [5]. - It also modifies risk factors for export credit insurance and overseas investment insurance to encourage insurance companies to increase support for foreign trade enterprises and effectively serve national strategies [5]. Group 3: Specific Adjustments to Risk Factors - For stocks held for over three years in the CSI 300 and CSI Dividend Low Volatility 100, the risk factor is reduced from 0.3 to 0.27 [9]. - For stocks in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board held for over two years, the risk factor is lowered from 0.4 to 0.36 [10]. - The risk factor for export credit insurance premiums is decreased from 0.467 to 0.42, and for reserves, it is reduced from 0.605 to 0.545 [10]. Group 4: Holding Period Calculation - The holding period for stocks, such as those listed on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, is calculated using a weighted average based on the past four years, with a maximum consideration of four years [6]. - Stocks held for more than two years will apply a risk factor of 0.36 [6]. Group 5: Internal Control and Management - Insurance companies are required to enhance internal controls to accurately measure the holding periods of investments in stocks and continuously improve long-term capital investment management capabilities [11]. - They must also strengthen solvency management to ensure that all solvency data is true, accurate, and complete [12].
吴清最新发声
清华金融评论· 2025-12-05 01:03
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of enhancing the inclusiveness and adaptability of China's capital market system as a strategic deployment by the central government to achieve high-quality development and modernization goals [4][5]. Group 1: Significance of Enhancing Capital Market System - The enhancement of the capital market's inclusiveness and adaptability is crucial for better serving the development of new productive forces, as a vibrant capital market is key to promoting technological and industrial advancements [6]. - It is essential for ensuring that the benefits of development reach the broader population, as the capital market serves as a platform for over 2 billion stock and fund investors to share in economic growth [7]. - This enhancement is a necessary requirement for promoting high-quality development of the capital market and building a strong financial nation, as it will improve market structure and quality, thereby increasing the capital market's core competitiveness and international influence [8]. Group 2: Understanding the Content and Principles - The capital market's long-term positive trends and strong foundations must be recognized, while also addressing existing quality issues, such as the need for better optimization of listed company structures and increased participation of long-term funds [9]. - The approach should focus on supporting technological innovation, meeting diverse investor needs, and enhancing regulatory efficiency to ensure a stable and healthy capital market [9][10]. Group 3: Key Tasks and Measures - Actively develop direct financing methods such as equity and bonds, with a focus on supporting high-quality enterprises and enhancing the service capabilities of the capital market [13]. - Foster more high-quality listed companies by optimizing their structures and encouraging cash dividends and buybacks to enhance investor returns [14]. - Create an attractive environment for long-term investments by improving conditions for various types of long-term capital and promoting public fund reforms [15]. - Enhance the scientific and effective regulation of the capital market to adapt to rapid financial innovations and ensure market stability [15]. - Gradually expand the capital market's openness to improve international competitiveness and facilitate efficient capital flow [16].
等你来投!《清华金融评论》2026年1月刊 加速推进数字人民币,建设自主可控的人民币跨境支付体系
清华金融评论· 2025-12-04 08:59
当前,全球数字货币研发与应用进入快车道,主要经济体纷纷加快 央 行 数 字 货 币 ( CBDC ) 布 局 。 与 此 同 时 , 国 际 地 缘 格 局 深 刻 演 变,金融基础设施安全成为国家安全的重要组成部分。党的二十大 报告明确提出"有序推进人民币国际化","十五五"规划建议提出, 推进人民币国际化,提升资本项目开放水平,建设自主可控的人民 币跨境支付体系。当前,我国多渠道、广覆盖的人民币跨境支付体 系基本建成。在此基础上,人民币跨境支付体系建设进一步凸显"自 主可控",对于保障金融安全、支撑人民币国际化以及提升国际金融 话语权具有重要战略意义。为此《清华金融评论》编辑部特地展开 征稿活动 。 《清华金融评论》 2026 年第 1 期专题 加速推进数字人民币,建设自主可控的人民币跨境支付体系 当前,全球数字货币研发与应用进入快车道,主要经济体纷纷加快央行数字货币(CBDC)布局。与此同时, 国际地缘格局深刻演变,金融基础设施安全成为国家安全的重要组成部分。党的二十大报告明确提出"有序推进 人民币国际化","十五五"规划建议提出,推进人民币国际化,提升资本项目开放水平,建设自主可控的人民币 跨境支付体 ...
股份行AIC扩容提速,行业发展步入“快车道”|银行与保险
清华金融评论· 2025-12-04 08:59
文/ 《清华金融评论》 杨曦 今年3月,国家金融监督管理总局正式出台《关于进一步扩大金融资产投 资公司股权投资试点的通知》(金办发〔2025〕1 9号),明确支持符合 资质 的商业银 行参与 设 立 金融 资 产投 资公 司。 在该 政策 指引 下, 兴 业银 行、中信银行与招商银行相继获批筹建AIC。至1 0月,邮储银行亦获准参 与,推动银行系AIC机构数量增至9家,行业扩容步伐显著加快。 AIC核心功能的转变 2018年6月,原银保监会发布《金融资产投资公司管理办法(试行)》,明确了AIC的政策目标,即推动市场化、法治化银行债权转股权及配套 业务。在此阶段,AIC作为商业银行实施债转股的专业平台,其核心功能在于通过市场化方式,帮助面临暂时困难但前景良好的企业降低杠杆 率,优化资本结构,以期从根本上化解潜在的金融风险。 现阶段,在支持科技创新与发展新质生产力的政策导向下,AIC被赋予了新的使命。近年来,随着监管层推动"加力扩围"试点政策,AIC的业务 边界发生实质性拓展,城市范围、意向金额与持股比例等方面的限制逐步放宽,其业务范围已从传统债转股延伸至不以转股为目的的直接股权投 资。依托母行的资金与资源网络优 ...
货币政策最新定调
清华金融评论· 2025-12-04 01:19
以下为原文: 构建科学稳健的货币政策体系和覆盖全面的宏观审慎管理体系(学习贯彻党的二十届四中全会精神) 潘功胜 党的二十届四中全会通过的《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》提出,构建科学稳健的货币政策体系和覆盖 全面的宏观审慎管理体系。这是"十五五"时期推动金融高质量发展、加快建设金融强国的战略举措,为完善中央银行制度指明了方向。 一、构建科学稳健的货币政策体系和覆盖全面的宏观审慎管理体系的重要意义 习近平总书记指出,金融是"国之大者",关系中国式现代化建设全局。中央银行以维护币值稳定和金融稳定为双目标,货币政策体系和宏观 审慎管理体系是中央银行实施宏观管理的两项基础性工具,是实现双目标的双支柱。构建科学稳健的货币政策体系和覆盖全面的宏观审慎管 理体系,有利于把维护币值稳定和金融稳定更好结合起来,对于支撑金融强国建设具有重要的意义。 一是加快构建高水平社会主义市场经济体制的必然要求。习近平总书记指出,金融改革发展是国家改革发展的重要内容;金融制度是经济社 会发展中重要的基础性制度。"十五五"时期,需要适应社会主要矛盾变化,更好解决发展不平衡不充分问题;需要建设现代化产业体系,加 快构建 ...
深化科技金融范式创新:商业银行助力科技企业高质量发展的思考与实践|封面专题
清华金融评论· 2025-12-03 09:48
近年来,国家层面围绕科技创新和产业升级构建了较为完备的政策支持体系。从《国家创新驱动发展战略纲要》到"十四五"科技创新专项规划,从设立科 创板、北交所到发行科技创新债券,一系列顶层设计为科技企业营造了更加完善的制度环境和更加有利的成长条件,也逐步构建起"基础研究+技术攻关 +成果产业化+科技金融"的全过程创新生态,为科技企业高质量发展注入强劲动力(见表1)。 | 政策文件 | 发布时间 | 发布机构 | 核心内容 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 《关于加强科技型企业全生命周期金融服务的通知》 | 2024年1月 | 国家金融监督管理总局 | 推动银行业保险业为不同发展阶段的科技型企业 | | | | | 提供差异化金融服务,完善科技金融顶层设计。 | | 《关于扎实做好科技金融大文章的工作方案》 | 2024年6月 | 中国人民银行等七部门 | 优化激励政策体系,建立科技金融服务效果评估 | | | | | 机制,标志着科技金融政策框架的系统性建立。 | | 《银行业保险业科技金融高质量发展实施方案》 | 2025年4月 | 国家金融监管总局、科技部、 | 要求加强科技金融产品体系 ...