Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the need for a stable economic environment while addressing challenges and opportunities for growth, focusing on a resilient and high-quality development path for the economy [4][5]. Economic Performance and Outlook - The overall economic operation is stable, with a projected GDP growth of around 5% for 2025, leading to an economic total of approximately 140 trillion yuan [5]. - Employment remains stable, with significant growth in foreign trade and diversified exports [5]. - The economy is expected to face challenges, including external environmental changes and domestic supply-demand imbalances, but the long-term positive trends and advantages of the Chinese economy remain intact [8]. Modern Industrial System and Innovation - Continuous progress in building a modern industrial system is noted, with advancements in new productive forces and significant achievements in technology innovation, particularly in AI, biomedicine, and robotics [6]. Reform and Opening Up - New steps in reform and opening up are highlighted, including the deepening of the national unified market and active capital market [7]. - Positive progress in risk resolution in key areas, such as local government debt management and the completion of housing delivery tasks, is acknowledged [7]. Social Welfare and Employment - Enhanced social welfare measures, including childcare subsidies and free education for one year before primary school, are being implemented [8]. - The employment situation is stable, with over 12 million new urban jobs created by November, achieving the annual target ahead of schedule [29]. Macroeconomic Policy - The continuation of a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy is planned for the next year, focusing on maintaining fiscal sustainability and enhancing the effectiveness of financial support for the real economy [9][12]. - Emphasis on expanding domestic demand as a priority task, with measures to boost consumption and investment [13][14]. Regional Development and Coordination - The conference outlines strategies for promoting regional coordinated development, focusing on the integration of urban and rural areas and enhancing the development capabilities of major economic provinces [24][26]. Green Transition and Carbon Neutrality - The commitment to achieving carbon neutrality is reinforced, with plans to advance carbon peak strategies and develop a new energy system [27][28]. Real Estate Market Stability - The need for a stable real estate market is emphasized, with strategies to balance supply and demand, support enterprise transformation, and establish a new development model for the sector [31][33].

Group 1 - The unemployment rate in the U.S. rose to 4.6% in November, the highest level since October 2021, with 7.83 million unemployed individuals, significantly higher than 7.1 million a year ago [2] - The number of individuals unemployed for less than 5 weeks increased by 316,000 to 2.5 million, while long-term unemployment rose by 100,000 to 1.9 million, accounting for 24.3% of total unemployment [2] - The labor force participation rate was 62.5% in November, slightly up from 62.4% in September [2] Group 2 - Non-farm payrolls added 64,000 jobs in November, exceeding market expectations of 40,000, while October's non-farm employment was revised down by 105,000 [2] - Job growth in November was primarily driven by the healthcare, construction, and social assistance sectors, with increases of 46,000, 28,000, and 18,000 jobs respectively [2] - The transportation and warehousing sector saw a decrease of 18,000 jobs, and federal government employment fell by 6,000, largely due to a significant drop of 162,000 jobs in October [2] Group 3 - The average hourly earnings for employees increased by 0.1% month-over-month and 3.5% year-over-year in November [3] - Due to a partial government shutdown caused by budget constraints, the Labor Department was only able to release the non-farm employment data for October on the same day, without publishing the unemployment rate for that month [3]

文/《清华金融评论》 王茅 20 25 年白银价格呈现历史性上涨 行情 ， 截至 12 月中旬，白银价格 涨 幅近 1 20% ，伦敦现货银价从年初约30 .1 美元 / 盎司飙升至 12 月 16 日 的 6 4 .74 美元 / 盎司， 主要 驱动 因素包括， 供需持续失衡、工业需求 爆发 ， 以及 投资资金涌入， 202 6 年仍有上行空间 ， 与此同时， 需 警 惕短期波动风险。 白银价格 2025 年涨势如虹 银价前景展望 ： 70 美元/盎司可期 ， 但波动加剧 2026 年支撑 银价的 因素。 供需缺口延续 ， 世界白银协会预测 2026 年缺口持续，光伏装机量年均增速超 10% 。 投资潜力仍存 ， 全球最大白银 ETF 持 仓量较 2021 年峰值低 30% ，增持空间 较大。 政策宽松预期 ， 美联储降息周期延长 ， 这 或进一步压制美元。 上行目标与风险预警。 法国巴黎银行看高至 100 美元，多数机构预测 2026 年上半年 银价将 突破 70 美元 。但同时也要注意银价 短期 波动 风险 ， 投机 资金获利了结可能引发 20% ～ 30% 回调 。 光伏 "降银"技术突破 ， 可能 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the origins of currency, highlighting the "Saint King Creation Theory" as a historical perspective and contrasting it with Sima Qian's more analytical view that links the emergence of currency to the development of trade and commerce [4][6][7]. Group 1: Historical Perspectives on Currency - The "Saint King Creation Theory" posits that currency was initially invented by a wise king, a view prevalent in ancient civilizations including China [4][5]. - Historical records indicate that the earliest discussions on the origin of currency in China can be traced back to the time of King Jing of Zhou, where the opposition to the issuance of large denomination currency was based on the need to aid the people during disasters [5][6]. - This theory influenced later scholars, such as Du You and Hong Zun, who referenced it in their works, indicating its significant impact on the understanding of currency in ancient society [6]. Group 2: Sima Qian's Contributions - Sima Qian's insights on currency are primarily found in his works "Pingzun Shu" and "Huozhi Liezhuan," where he emphasizes that the rise of various forms of currency is fundamentally linked to the smooth operation of agricultural and commercial exchanges [7]. - He argues that the emergence of currency is a natural result of the interconnectedness of agriculture and commerce, marking a significant departure from the idealistic views of the "Saint King Creation Theory" [7]. - Sima Qian's perspective laid a scientific and objective foundation for the subsequent discussions on the essence of currency, challenging the previously dominant idealistic interpretations [7].

Core Viewpoint - The consumer market in Beijing showed improvement in the first eleven months of the year, with total consumption increasing by 1.4% year-on-year, reflecting a slight recovery in the market [3]. Group 1: Service Consumption - Service consumption in Beijing grew steadily, with a year-on-year increase of 4.8% from January to November. The integration of digital technology into consumer services has led to double-digit growth in information services, driven by internet live streaming, gaming, and lifestyle services [4]. - The tourism sector remained active, with significant increases in air and rail passenger volumes, and revenues from travel agencies and related services grew by over 10% [4]. - The cultural and entertainment services sector saw a richer supply, with box office revenues from movies and performances achieving double-digit growth [4]. Group 2: Retail Sales - The total retail sales of consumer goods in Beijing reached 12,492.9 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decline of 3.1%, but the decline was narrowed by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [5]. - Among major retail categories, sales of gold and silver jewelry and cosmetics grew by 40.5% and 12.3%, respectively. Sales of home appliances and audio-visual equipment increased by 1.3% due to the old-for-new consumption policy [5]. - Basic living goods such as grain and oil saw retail sales increase by 6.9%, while daily necessities grew by 1.2%. However, sales of communication equipment and cultural office supplies declined by 17.4% and 0.8%, respectively [5]. - The automotive market faced challenges, with sales of traditional fuel vehicles declining by 14.8% and petroleum products down by 16.9%. In contrast, sales of new energy vehicles increased by 8.3%, supported by the old-for-new policy and local consumption vouchers [5]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Overall, the Beijing consumer market maintained growth, and the trend of upgrading consumption structure remains unchanged. Future actions will focus on implementing measures to boost consumption, stabilize employment, and expand the supply of quality goods and services to stimulate new consumption vitality [6].

住房和城乡建设部党组书记、部长倪虹在人民日报发表署名文章《推动房地产高质量发展（学习贯彻党的二十届四中全会精神）》。其中提 到，长远看，我国房地产发展仍有较大潜力和空间。推动房地产业从高速增长阶段转向高质量发展阶段，推动房地产企业从追求规模扩张转 为注重提升产品品质和服务，保持房地产市场供需基本平衡、结构基本合理、价格基本稳定，有利于促进我国经济实现质的有效提升和量的 合理增长。 以下为原文： 推动房地产高质量发展（学习贯彻党的二十届四中全会精神） 倪虹 党的二十届四中全会通过的《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》（以下简称《建议》）提出"推动房地产高质 量发展"，这是以习近平同志为核心的党中央面向"十五五"这一新的起点，着眼全局作出的重大决策部署。我们要认真学习领会、全面贯彻落 实，加快构建房地产发展新模式，推动房地产高质量发展。 一、深刻认识推动房地产高质量发展的重要意义 （一）推动房地产高质量发展是满足人民美好生活向往的客观需要。安居是人民群众幸福生活的基点。党的十八大以来，我国房地产市场快 速发展，居民住房条件显著改善，城镇人均住房建筑面积超过40平方米，户均住房超过1.1套。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the concept of "investment in people" as a transformative development ideology that prioritizes human resources as a crucial form of capital, aiming to enhance individual capabilities and improve overall societal value, thereby supporting China's modernization efforts [2]. Summary by Sections Definition and Relationship of "Investment in People" - "Investment in people" refers to allocating more fiscal resources towards education, employment, healthcare, and social security, focusing on enhancing individual capabilities and driving high-quality economic development through human capital [3]. - It contrasts with "investment in material," highlighting a shift from a purely material-focused investment approach to one that recognizes the importance of human development [3]. Economic Growth and Investment Strategies - Traditional economic growth has focused on expanding production capacity, with "investment in material" being favored due to its quicker returns and easier cost-benefit analysis [4]. - However, overemphasis on material investment has led to structural imbalances in supply and demand, with a significant decline in the return on investment in material from 2008 to 2023, indicating a need for a shift towards human-centered investment strategies [4]. Pursuit of Quality of Life - The pursuit of a better life encompasses not only diverse and high-quality consumption but also broader social and individual development goals [5]. - "Investment in people" is positioned as a practical application of the goal to meet the growing needs of the populace, emphasizing the integration of material and human investments [5]. Implications for Domestic Demand and Supply Structure - The article discusses the necessity of improving the interaction between consumption and investment to address domestic demand issues, with a focus on optimizing investment directions to better align with changing consumer needs [6][7]. - It highlights that people are the core of consumption and production, and "investment in people" aims to enhance human capabilities and foster sustainable economic growth [7]. Comprehensive Development and Policy Considerations - "Investment in people" should transcend short-term economic logic, addressing broader human needs, including cultural and spiritual dimensions [8]. - The article advocates for a holistic approach to investment that includes education, healthcare, and environmental considerations, aiming for a sustainable and equitable development model [9][10]. Long-term Goals and Systematic Advantages - The long-term objective of "investment in people" is to achieve comprehensive human development, distinguishing it from other countries' approaches that may reduce human value to mere economic tools [12][13]. - China's unique institutional advantages, such as a people-centered approach and systematic planning, are highlighted as key factors in successfully implementing "investment in people" strategies [13][14]. Future Directions and Implementation Strategies - The article suggests focusing on key areas such as income distribution, public services, and education to effectively "invest in people," while balancing market forces and government roles [17]. - It emphasizes the importance of a long-term perspective in evaluating the effectiveness of such investments, advocating for a comprehensive assessment framework that aligns with the overarching goals of human and societal development [11][15].

Core Insights - The article discusses the overall stability and progress of the national economy in November, highlighting key economic indicators and government policies aimed at boosting consumption and financial collaboration [4][8][12]. Group 1: Economic Performance - In November, the national economy continued to show a stable and progressive development trend, with significant growth in industrial production, particularly in equipment manufacturing and high-tech sectors [8]. - The total grain output for the year is expected to exceed 1.4 trillion jin, indicating a stable agricultural sector [8]. - The consumer price index (CPI) rose by 0.7% year-on-year in November, with a notable increase in food prices, particularly pork, which saw a decrease of 15.0% [14][15]. Group 2: Government Policies - The National Financial Supervision Administration has officially released the "Bank-Insurance Connection System Interface Specification" industry standard, which aims to enhance the efficiency of bank-insurance collaboration and reduce integration costs [10][11]. - The Ministry of Commerce, the People's Bank of China, and the Financial Regulatory Authority jointly issued a notice to strengthen the collaboration between commerce and finance, proposing 11 policy measures to stimulate consumption [12][13]. Group 3: Future Economic Outlook - Han Wenxiu indicated that in 2026, new incremental policies will be introduced based on changing circumstances, aiming to synergize existing policies to promote economic stability and growth [8][10]. - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to lower interest rates by 25 basis points is part of a broader strategy to address economic uncertainties and support the labor market [13].

12月16日出版的第24期《求是》杂志将发表中共中央总书记、国家主席、中央军委主席习近平的重要文章《扩大内需是战略之举》。这是习 近平总书记2015年10月至2025年10月期间有关重要论述的节录。 文章指出，扩大内需既关系经济稳定，也关系经济安全，不是权宜之计，而是战略之举。实施扩大内需战略，是保持我国经济长期持续健康 发展的需要，也是满足人民日益增长的美好生活的需要。要加快补上内需特别是消费短板，使内需成为拉动经济增长的主动力和稳定锚。 文章强调，大国经济的优势就是内部可循环。要牢牢把握扩大内需这一战略基点，使生产、分配、流通、消费各环节更多依托国内市场实现 良性循环。扩大内需和扩大开放并不矛盾。国内循环越顺畅，越能形成对全球资源要素的引力场，越有利于构建以国内大循环为主体、国内 国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局，越有利于形成参与国际竞争和合作新优势。要把扩大内需战略同深化供给侧结构性改革有机结合起来， 供需两端同时发力、协调配合，形成需求牵引供给、供给创造需求的更高水平动态平衡。 文章指出，总需求不足是当前经济运行面临的突出矛盾。要坚决贯彻落实扩大内需战略规划纲要，尽快形成完整内需体系，着力扩大有收入 支 ...

11月份，在以习近平同志为核心的党中央坚强领导下，各地区各部门认真贯彻落实党中央、国务院决策部署，坚持稳中求进工作总基调，深 入实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，着力推动高质量发展，生产供给基本平稳，就业形势总体稳定，市场价格 继续改善，新质生产力稳步发展，经济运行延续总体平稳、稳中有进发展态势。 一、全年粮食实现丰收，稳定在1.4万亿斤以上 全年全国粮食产量14298亿斤，比上年增加167.5亿斤，增长1.2%，稳定在1.4万亿斤以上。其中，秋粮产量10732亿斤，比上年增加163.6亿 斤，增长1.5%。全国谷物产量13204亿斤，比上年增加158.4亿斤，增长1.2%。粮食播种面积增加、单产提高。全国粮食播种面积17.91亿亩， 比上年增加134.8万亩，增长0.1%；粮食单产399.1公斤/亩，每亩产量比上年增加4.4公斤，增长1.1%。 二、工业生产稳定增长，装备制造业和高技术制造业增长较快 11月份，全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长4.8%，环比增长0.44%。分三大门类看，采矿业增加值同比增长6.3%，制造业增长4.6%，电力、 热力、燃气及水生产和供应业增长4.3%。装备制 ...