| 报 告 摘 要 | | --- | | 一、国信金工主动量化策略表现跟踪 | | 本周， 优秀基金业绩增强组合 绝对收益2.21%，相对偏股混合型基金指数超额收 | | 益1.14%。本年，优秀基金业绩增强组合绝对收益1.19%，相对偏股混合型基金指 | | 数超额收益-2.18%。 今年以来，优秀基金业绩增强组合在主动股基中排名53.24% | | 分位点（1847/3469）。 | | 本周， 超预期精选组合 绝对收益2.53%，相对偏股混合型基金指数超额收益 | | 1.46%。本年，超预期精选组合绝对收益8.18%，相对偏股混合型基金指数超额收 | | 益 4.81% 。 今 年 以 来 ， 超 预 期 精 选 组 合 在 主 动 股 基 中 排 名 17.79% 分 位 点 | | （617/3469）。 | | 本周， 券商金股业绩增强组合 绝对收益1.43%，相对偏股混合型基金指数超额收 | | 益0.37%。本年，券商金股业绩增强组合绝对收益5.43%，相对偏股混合型基金指 | | 数超额收益2.06%。 今年以来，券商金股业绩增强组合在主动股基中排名27.88% | | 分位点（967/ ...

Core Viewpoint - The article focuses on the analysis of companies that reported better-than-expected earnings in their Q1 2025 financial disclosures, highlighting the importance of analyst reports that indicate "earnings exceed expectations" as a comprehensive judgment based on both objective earnings data and subjective research tracking [1][30]. Q1 Financial Disclosure Situation - As of April 30, 2025, a total of 5,360 A-share companies had disclosed their Q1 2025 financial reports [2][30]. - Among different indices, the median year-on-year net profit growth rate for the CSI 300 index constituents was the highest at 6.41% [5][30]. - The technology sector reported a median year-on-year net profit growth rate of 8.20%, while the pharmaceutical sector had a negative growth rate of -4.01% [6][30]. - In terms of industry performance, non-bank financial, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishing, as well as steel sectors showed relatively high median year-on-year net profit growth rates [9][30]. - Hot concept indices with high public fund holdings, such as the semiconductor selection index and the national big fund index, reported median year-on-year net profit growth rates exceeding 20% [12][31]. Q1 Earnings Exceeding Expectations - The proportion of companies exceeding expectations in the CSI 300 index was the highest at 21.69% [20][31]. - The consumer sector had the highest proportion of companies exceeding expectations at 19.77% [21][31]. - In terms of specific industries, the home appliances, food and beverage, and agriculture sectors had a higher proportion of companies exceeding expectations [23][31]. - Among hot concept indices with high public fund holdings, the Moutai index, air energy heat pump index, and white goods selection index had a higher number of companies exceeding expectations [24][31]. - The representative ETF indices with a high proportion of companies exceeding expectations included the 800 consumer index, technology leaders, and the China Securities wine index [25][31]. - Selected companies that exceeded expectations based on their Q1 reports and analyst comments included Yara International, Juhua Co., and Dongpeng Beverage [27][31].

Core Viewpoint - The increasing acceptance of index investing among investors has led to a significant growth in the scale of index funds, reaching a total of 3.26 trillion yuan as of March 31, 2025 [1][8]. Index Predictions CSI 300 Index - Predictions indicate that seven stocks, including Guohang Airlines, Lingyi Technology, and Softcom Power, will be added to the CSI 300 Index, while seven stocks, such as Hualan Biological and 37 Interactive Entertainment, will be removed [2]. SSE 180 Index - Twelve stocks, including Yutong Bus and Shengyi Technology, are expected to be added to the SSE 180 Index, while twelve stocks, such as China Satellite and Zhangjiang Hi-Tech, are predicted to be removed [3]. SSE 50 Index - Four stocks, including AVIC Shenfei and China Aluminum, are forecasted to be added to the SSE 50 Index, while four stocks, such as Tongwei Co. and China Railway, are expected to be removed [4]. STAR 50 Index - It is predicted that Hengxuan Technology will be added to the STAR 50 Index, while Zhongfu Shenying will be removed [5]. CSI 500 Index - Fifty stocks, including GeKong Micro and HuaiBei Mining, are expected to be added to the CSI 500 Index, while fifty stocks, such as Goodway and Guangqi Technology, are predicted to be removed [6]. ChiNext Index - Eight stocks, including Changying Precision and Jiejie Micro, are forecasted to be added to the ChiNext Index, while eight stocks, such as Anke Bio and Dongfang Risheng, are expected to be removed [7].

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the rapid advancement of artificial intelligence (AI) as a strategic technology leading technological revolutions and industrial transformations, particularly highlighting the development of large language models (LLMs) and their significant breakthroughs over the past decade [5][60]. - The DeepSeek-R1 model, launched in January 2025, has shown competitive performance in various tasks and has rapidly gained user adoption, reaching 1 million users within 14 days and 10 million users in 20 days [8][13][16]. - The Chinese government's commitment to AI development is evident through its "three-step" strategic goals, aiming for significant advancements in AI technology and applications by 2030 [24][25]. Group 2 - The China Securities Artificial Intelligence Industry Index (CSI 931071) was established to reflect the performance of companies providing foundational resources, technology, and application support for AI, selecting 50 representative listed companies based on AI business proportion, growth level, and market capitalization [3][61]. - The index is characterized by its comprehensiveness, growth potential, and purity, focusing on companies with substantial AI revenue and avoiding speculative investments [30][39]. - As of March 21, 2025, the average market capitalization of the index's constituent stocks is 63 billion yuan, with a significant concentration in the computer (47.63%) and electronics (30.79%) sectors [41][62]. Group 3 - The index has demonstrated high growth potential, with a net profit growth rate of 16.41% in 2023 and projected growth rates of 24.24%, 41.10%, and 24.18% for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [48][62]. - The index has shown high elasticity and volatility, with a return of 68.57% since February 2024, outperforming major broad-based indices [51][62]. - The index's top ten holdings account for 48.89% of its total weight, indicating a moderate concentration, with significant representation from semiconductor and computer equipment sectors [46][36]. Group 4 - The Huafu Artificial Intelligence ETF (515980) aims to track the performance of the China Securities Artificial Intelligence Industry Index and was launched on December 24, 2019 [4][63]. - The fund employs an index investment strategy, investing at least 90% of its net asset value in the index's constituent stocks [56][57]. - The fund management team consists of experienced professionals with backgrounds in finance and investment management [58][59].

一、券商金股股票池上月回顾 2025年4月，万辰集团、先达股份、民士达等券商金股股票的月度上涨幅度靠前。 2025年4月，东北证券、华西证券、华源证券收益排名前三，月度收益分别为 17.31%、13.41%、12.75%，同期偏股混合型基金指数收益-2.26%，沪深300指数 收益-3.00%。 2025年以来，东北证券、华鑫证券、国联证券收益排名前三，年度收益分别为 44.56%、42.58%、16.68%，同期偏股混合型基金指数收益2.28%，沪深300指数收 益-4.18%。 二、券商金股股票池中选股因子表现 最近一个月，总市值、SUE、单季度净利润增速表现较好，EPTTM、波动率、预 期股息率表现较差； 今年以来，总市值、SUE、剥离涨停动量表现较好，预期股息率、EPTTM、波动 率表现较差。 三、券商金股股票池本月特征 截至2025年5月6日，共有41家券商发布本月金股。在对券商金股股票池进行去重 后，总共有291只A股。 从 绝 对 占 比 来 看 ， 本 期 券 商 金 股 在 电 子 (10.00%) 、 医 药 (8.25%) 、 基 础 化 工 (8.25%)、食品饮料(7.25%)、机械 ...

Market Review - The A-share market showed a mixed performance last week, with the Sci-Tech 50, CSI 1000, and CSI 500 indices gaining 0.78%, 0.18%, and 0.08% respectively, while the SME Composite, Shanghai Composite, and CSI 300 indices fell by -0.49%, -0.49%, and -0.43% respectively [5][14] - The media, computer, and electronics sectors performed well, with returns of 2.86%, 2.66%, and 1.30% respectively, while the comprehensive, financial, and real estate sectors lagged with returns of -3.48%, -3.21%, and -2.93% respectively [21][22] - The central bank's net reverse repurchase was 735.8 billion yuan, with 504.5 billion yuan maturing, resulting in a net open market injection of 1.2403 trillion yuan [23] Fund Performance - Last week, 37 new funds were established with a total issuance scale of 21.998 billion yuan, a decrease from the previous week. The types of funds included 9 passive index funds and 19 enhanced index funds, with issuance scales of 4.332 billion yuan and 4.176 billion yuan respectively [4][44] - The median returns for active equity, flexible allocation, and balanced mixed funds were 0.35%, 0.07%, and -0.11% respectively. Year-to-date, alternative funds have performed the best with a median return of 6.56% [33][35] - The median excess return for index-enhanced funds was -0.08%, while the median return for quantitative hedging funds was -0.10%. Year-to-date, the median excess return for index-enhanced funds was 1.25% [36][37] Fund Issuance - A total of 19 funds were reported for issuance last week, including 2 FOFs and several ETFs such as E Fund National Growth 100 ETF and Huaxia CSI A500 Enhanced Strategy ETF [5][6] - The issuance of new funds last week was lower than the previous week, with 6 funds entering the issuance phase and 27 funds expected to start issuance this week [4][5] Index Adjustments - On April 28, two major index companies announced a reduction in index usage fees for domestic public index products, including the cancellation of fixed usage fees and a 20% reduction in basis point rates starting April 1, 2025 [10][12][13]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is to track the performance of various index enhancement portfolios and stock selection factors across different indices, highlighting their excess returns and factor performance over the recent week and year-to-date [1][2][3]. Group 2 - The performance of the HuShen 300 index enhancement portfolio showed an excess return of -1.26% for the week and 1.88% year-to-date [5]. - The performance of the ZhongZheng 500 index enhancement portfolio showed an excess return of -0.50% for the week and 3.40% year-to-date [5]. - The ZhongZheng 1000 index enhancement portfolio had an excess return of -0.78% for the week and 4.40% year-to-date [5]. - The ZhongZheng A500 index enhancement portfolio reported an excess return of -0.22% for the week and 4.88% year-to-date [5]. Group 3 - In the HuShen 300 component stocks, factors such as one-year momentum, one-month reversal, and DELTAROE performed well [6]. - In the ZhongZheng 500 component stocks, factors like one-month reversal, SPTTM, and executive compensation showed strong performance [6]. - For ZhongZheng 1000 component stocks, factors such as non-liquidity shock, three-month earnings adjustments, and expected net profit month-on-month performed well [6]. - In the ZhongZheng A500 component stocks, one-month reversal, one-year momentum, and executive compensation were among the top-performing factors [6]. Group 4 - The HuShen 300 index enhancement products had a maximum excess return of 0.44%, a minimum of -0.66%, and a median of -0.06% for the week [19]. - The ZhongZheng 500 index enhancement products had a maximum excess return of 0.48%, a minimum of -1.30%, and a median of -0.35% for the week [19]. - The ZhongZheng 1000 index enhancement products had a maximum excess return of 1.09%, a minimum of -0.82%, and a median of -0.06% for the week [19]. - The ZhongZheng A500 index enhancement products had a maximum excess return of 0.46%, a minimum of -0.38%, and a median of -0.22% for the week [19]. Group 5 - The total number of public fund index enhancement products includes 67 for HuShen 300 with a total scale of 77.8 billion, 69 for ZhongZheng 500 with 45.2 billion, 46 for ZhongZheng 1000 with 15 billion, and 35 for ZhongZheng A500 with 22.3 billion [16].

| 报 告 摘 要 | | --- | | 一、国信金工主动量化策略表现跟踪 | | 本周， 优秀基金业绩增强组合 绝对收益0.09%，相对偏股混合型基金指数超额收 | | 益-0.52%。本年，优秀基金业绩增强组合绝对收益-0.99%，相对偏股混合型基金 | | 指数超额收益-3.28%。 今年以来，优秀基金业绩增强组合在主动股基中排名 | | 60.77%分位点（2108/3469）。 | | 本周， 超预期精选组合 绝对收益0.06%，相对偏股混合型基金指数超额收 | | 益-0.56%。本年，超预期精选组合绝对收益5.51%，相对偏股混合型基金指数超额 | | 收益3.23%。 今年以来，超预期精选组合在主动股基中排名22.77%分位点 | | （790/3469）。 | | 本周， 券商金股业绩增强组合 绝对收益-0.68%，相对偏股混合型基金指数超额收 | | 益-1.30%。本年，券商金股业绩增强组合绝对收益3.94%，相对偏股混合型基金指 | | 数超额收益1.66%。 今年以来，券商金股业绩增强组合在主动股基中排名29.49% | | 分位点（1023/3469）。 | | -0.38% 本 ...

一 、成分股分红进度 截至2025年4月29日： 上证50指数中，有36家公司处于预案阶段，3家公司处于决案阶段，1家公司进入 实施阶段，2家公司已分红，4家公司不分红； 沪深300指数中，有216家公司处于预案阶段，29家公司处于决案阶段，9家公司 进入实施阶段，10家公司已分红，27家公司不分红； 中证500指数中，有332家公司处于预案阶段，57家公司处于决案阶段，6家公司 进入实施阶段，5家公司已分红，90家公司不分红； 中证1000指数中，有604家公司处于预案阶段，119家公司处于决案阶段，17家公 司进入实施阶段，16家公司已分红，227家公司不分红。 二、行业成分股股息率比较 我们对当前已披露分红预案的个股股息率进行了统计，其中，煤炭、银行和钢铁行业的股 息率排名前三。 三、已实现及剩余股息率 截至2025年4月29日： 上证50指数已实现股息率为0.09%，剩余股息率2.35%； 沪深300指数已实现股息率为0.13%，剩余股息率1.94%； 中证500指数已实现股息率为0.02%，剩余股息率1.37%； 中证1000指数已实现股息率为0.02%，剩余股息率1.03%。 四、股指期货升贴水情 ...

报 告 摘 要 一、美国公募基金市场月度收益 2025年3月，美国股票型基金业绩弱于国际股票基金、债券基金和资产配置基金。 具体 来看，3月美国股票型基金、国际股票型基金、债券型基金、资产配置型基金收益中位 数分别为-5.65%、-1.62%、-0.27%、-2.62%。 二、 美国非货币基金资金流向 三、 头部资管机构资金净流入 四、美国公募基金市场新发产品 2025年3月， 美国基金市场新成立基金共58只，其中包括48只ETF和10只开放式基金产品； 按资产类别区分，2025年3月新成立股票型基金38只、债券型基金8只、资产配置型基金2 只。 2025年3月， 美国股票型基金业绩弱于国际股票基金、债券基金和资产配置基金。 具体来看，3月美国股票型基金、国际股票型基金、债券型基金、资产配置型基金收益中位数 分别为-5.65%、-1.62%、-0.27%、 -2.62%。 按管理方式： 2025年3月，主动管理型基金整体净流出307亿美元，被动基金整体净流入 544亿美元。 按资产类型： 2025年3月， 美国市场开放式基金中，股票型基金资金净流出较多 ，达 582亿美元。 2025年3月， 美国市场ETF中 ...