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竞选主席,且看国民党这只茶壶里的众生相
经济观察报· 2025-09-01 11:24
国民党内不少人都有"王侯将相宁有种乎"的雄心。站在两岸关 系、国际局势的高度看,国民党的主席之争就是茶壶里的风 暴。 作者:王义伟 封图:本报资料库 10月18日,国民党将举行新一任党主席选举,还有48天。 已经宣布的参选者、可能参选者、被劝进者,心思各异、面目各异,笔者速写众生相如下: 朱立伦,老狐狸。 朱立伦一直在劝进台中市长卢秀燕。国民党主席选举,原定于9月1日至5日办理领表登记,后经中 常会研议决定延后两周,9月15日至19日领表登记。朱立伦对此做出解释说,对于众望所归的人, 大家都还是有所期待,大家都在努力。 所谓众望所归的人, 当然是指卢秀 燕。这一次,朱立伦不再自己呼吁,而是抬出"大家"这个群 体,他是跟大家一起呼吁。 其实朱立伦的心思,不管是局内人还是局外人,都洞若观火。正如金庸先生武侠小说"倚天不出, 谁与争锋",朱立伦的想法是"燕子不出,舍我其谁",只要卢秀燕不出头,朱立伦就当仁不让了。 朱立伦的实力就在于他常年深耕党务工作,"党羽众多"。而且,朱立伦的党羽纪律严明。可以预见 的是,在这次党主席竞选中,朱立伦的党羽可以做到"来有影、去无踪",需要他们抬轿子时,他们 会立马跳出来摇旗呐喊;如 ...
墓地五折卖 福寿园上市12年首亏
经济观察报· 2025-09-01 09:28
Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant decline in the financial performance of Fushouyuan, the first publicly listed funeral service company in China, with a notable drop in revenue and a shift from profit to loss, raising concerns about the sustainability of its business model in the current economic environment [2][9]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Fushouyuan reported a revenue drop of 50% to 610 million yuan, with a loss of 230 million yuan in the first half of 2025, marking its first loss since its listing in 2013 [2][3]. - The company's main revenue source, cemetery services, saw a drastic decline from 910 million yuan to 480 million yuan, returning to levels seen a decade ago [6][9]. - The average sales price of graves fell by 47.5% to 57,000 yuan, a significant deviation from the historical trend of steady price increases [6][9]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Despite the decline in Fushouyuan's performance, key indicators for the funeral industry remain stable, including urbanization rates, an aging population, and a high cremation rate [2][3]. - The company attributes its revenue decline to cautious consumer behavior and adjustments in its product offerings, which have led to a decrease in both the number of customers and the average revenue per customer [7][9]. Group 3: Operational Challenges - Fushouyuan faced two significant expenses: a 218 million yuan impairment loss on cemetery assets and goodwill, and a 220 million yuan increase in general operating expenses, which rose by over 194% [9][10]. - The company's profit margin for cemetery services plummeted from 54.4% to -44.9%, indicating severe operational challenges [9]. Group 4: Regulatory Environment - Recent regulatory changes, including the introduction of a public service system for funeral services and strict land use regulations, have impacted the pricing and availability of cemetery plots [10][11]. - The company is also exploring new service offerings, such as pre-paid funeral contracts, to diversify its revenue streams and mitigate the impact of declining cemetery sales [11].
破局低利率周期,招商银行的应对之道
经济观察报· 2025-09-01 00:30
Core Viewpoint - The low interest rate environment is significantly impacting the banking industry in China, leading to a potential restructuring of the competitive landscape. China Merchants Bank (CMB) is taking various strategic measures to navigate these challenges, including accelerating internationalization, enhancing comprehensive services, leveraging AI for smart banking, and improving management and risk control [1][2]. Group 1: Impact of Low Interest Rates - The one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rates (LPR) in China have been cumulatively reduced by 70 basis points and 105 basis points from 2022 to 2024, respectively [2]. - As a result, the net interest margin for the banking sector has declined to 1.42% in Q2 of this year, putting pressure on revenue and profit growth, as net interest income accounts for over 70% of bank revenues [2]. - The low interest rate scenario is described as the biggest "gray rhino" for the Chinese banking industry, with historical precedents from Europe, the US, Japan, and Taiwan indicating that prolonged low rates can lead to significant operational difficulties for banks [2]. Group 2: Internationalization Strategy - CMB is accelerating its internationalization to adapt to the growing demand for financial services as Chinese enterprises expand overseas. The bank aims to diversify its revenue sources beyond the low-interest domestic market [5][6]. - CMB has established a global presence with branches in major financial centers such as Hong Kong, Singapore, New York, and London, and is leveraging these platforms to enhance its multi-currency operations [6]. - The bank's international business has shown significant growth, with total assets and operating income from its Hong Kong institutions increasing by 9.49% and 25.28%, respectively, in the first half of 2025 [6]. Group 3: Comprehensive Business Development - CMB has been expanding its financial licenses, recently obtaining a Financial Asset Investment Company (AIC) license, which enhances its comprehensive business model [12][13]. - The bank's subsidiaries are performing well, with total assets of major subsidiaries growing by 9% year-on-year, indicating an upward trend in its overall competitive capability [12]. - CMB is focusing on providing integrated services across various business lines to enhance customer loyalty and achieve diversified revenue streams [13]. Group 4: Differentiated Competitive Strategy - CMB emphasizes differentiation in a highly competitive banking environment, aiming to create a unique value proposition through innovation and specialized services [15]. - The bank's retail customer base has reached 216 million, with retail assets under management surpassing 16 trillion yuan, reflecting its strong performance in retail banking [15][16]. - CMB is also investing in key regional branches to enhance its presence in economically vibrant areas, which is expected to drive further growth [17]. Group 5: AI and Digital Transformation - CMB is committed to becoming a smart bank by leveraging AI technologies to enhance service delivery and operational efficiency [19][20]. - The bank has developed a comprehensive AI technology framework, with 184 application scenarios across various functions, resulting in significant labor hour savings [19][21]. - CMB's historical focus on technology adoption positions it well to capitalize on the ongoing AI competition in the banking sector [20]. Group 6: Management and Cost Control - In response to the low interest rate environment, CMB is shifting towards more refined management practices, emphasizing cost control and operational efficiency [22][24]. - The bank has implemented strict cost management measures, resulting in a decrease in business and management expenses over the past two years [22]. - CMB maintains a strong focus on risk management, with a non-performing loan ratio of 0.93% and a provision coverage ratio of 410.93%, indicating robust risk management capabilities [24].
经观社论|构建更有温度的智能社会
经济观察报· 2025-08-31 11:28
这是一份兼具时间表、路线图与价值指向的战略性文件。在中美竞争与博弈的今天更是意味深长。 我们将见证这样一段历史:AI(人工智能)从前沿概念走入日常现实,深度嵌入我们的生活方式与公 共治理结构。 一批AI时代的企业将陆续站到舞台中央。它们拥有的能力超过 以往,如何使其更好地服务于人而非被滥用,这是必须面对的 挑战。算法和平台的激励机制天然倾向效率与规模,而真正的 普惠往往意味着更高的设计成本、更复杂的反馈机制、更缓慢 的商业节奏。 作者:社论 封图:图虫创意 一幅面向未来的图景徐徐展开。8月26日,《国务院关于深入实施"人工智能+"行动的意见》公 布。中国确定以科技、产业、消费、民生、治理、全球合作等领域为重点,深入实施"人工智能 +"行动,到2035年全面步入智能经济和智能社会发展的新阶段。 与生活方式变迁,却也划下了鸿沟:不会使用智能手机的老人,无法适应算法界面的障碍者……他 们被挡在系统门槛之外,成为数字时代的失语者。还有一部分人被困在系统里,算法黑箱、"信息 茧房"如影相随,挥之不去。 进入AI时代,我们会从容告别这一切么?面对生成式内容,人们面临的不只是"不会用",而是"无 法判断"。文本、图像、语音 ...
亮马河上的桨板多到“下不去水”
经济观察报· 2025-08-31 11:28
Core Viewpoint - The popularity of stand-up paddleboarding (SUP) has surged, particularly among women aged 25 to 40, transforming it into a mainstream outdoor activity with significant market potential [2][13][14]. Industry Trends - The paddleboard industry is experiencing rapid growth, with production capacity in China accounting for over 70% of global output, and the market is expected to reach approximately $1.59 billion by 2025, growing at an annual rate of 9.95% [13][14]. - The paddleboard market is characterized by a shift in consumer demographics, with women becoming the primary consumers, leading to increased demand for products tailored to this demographic, such as pink paddleboards [13][14]. - The paddleboard rental market is also expanding, with businesses offering comprehensive services that combine accommodation and water sports, catering to families and small groups seeking leisure activities [18][19]. Consumer Insights - Paddleboarding is perceived as a low-cost and accessible sport, with entry-level boards available for as low as 200 to 1000 yuan, making it an attractive option compared to other outdoor activities [5][10]. - The sport's ease of learning and the availability of diverse water venues contribute to its growing popularity, with many consumers sharing their experiences on social media [10][15]. Market Opportunities - The paddleboard industry presents various development opportunities, including training programs for different skill levels, integration with tourism, and enhancements in rental services to improve customer experience [20]. - Companies like Tuno Outdoor are innovating by introducing multifunctional paddleboards and expanding their product lines to meet the evolving preferences of consumers [19][20].
创始人陈航回归 四个月爆改钉钉
经济观察报· 2025-08-31 11:28
Core Viewpoint - Chen Hang's return to DingTalk as CEO marks a transformative phase for the organization, emphasizing a "crazy" work culture and a focus on AI-driven product innovation [1][16]. Group 1: Leadership and Management Changes - Chen Hang has been back at DingTalk for over four months, leading a high-intensity work environment and pushing for stricter attendance and assessment mechanisms [2][3]. - His leadership style is characterized by a demand for a "Be crazy" mentality, reflecting a return to the startup spirit [2][3]. - DingTalk's internal structure has been redefined, with a focus on breaking down silos between AI expertise and business knowledge [7][8]. Group 2: Product Innovation and AI Integration - DingTalk has launched significant product updates, including DingTalk 8.0, which aims to simplify the user experience and integrate AI capabilities [6][10]. - The introduction of AI tools and hardware, such as DingTalk A1, aims to enhance productivity and streamline communication [11][12]. - Chen Hang's initiatives have led to a reported increase in customer satisfaction from 30% to 80% and a 90% reduction in costs [8][10]. Group 3: Strategic Shift and Market Positioning - DingTalk is shifting from a traditional SaaS model to a results-driven approach, where payment is contingent on delivered outcomes [15]. - The company is focusing on building a layered AI ecosystem tailored for different business sizes and needs, aiming to reduce operational costs significantly for global enterprises [15][16]. - Chen Hang's vision is to redefine DingTalk not just as a collaboration tool but as a platform that fundamentally transforms work processes through AI [15][16].
舜宇光学转型“汽车+AI”:高增长背后的机会与隐忧
经济观察报· 2025-08-31 11:28
财报显示,2025年上半年,舜宇光学营收为 196.52亿元,同比增长4.2%;公司股东应占期内溢利 约16.46亿元,同比增长52.56%;毛利率提升至19.8%,同比增加2.6个百分点。 与财务端的全面增长不同,舜宇光学在业务端出现了"冰火两重天"的局面,其最依赖的手机镜头上 半年出现了下跌。 2025年6月,舜宇光学手机镜头出货量9505.6万件,环比减少3.1%,同比减少12.7%。舜宇光学在 公告中表示,出货量下降的原因之一是"公司专注于中高端案子,且产品结构较去年同期显著改 善"。 经济学家、中国金融智库特邀研究员余丰慧对经济观察报表示,手机光学市场现在的游戏规则已经 变了,要么追量、要么追质,没有中间路线。舜宇光学正在退出那些利润微薄、竞争惨烈的市场, 将资源倾注于高端镜头,试图尽可能守住利润水平。 从消费电子到新兴市场,舜宇光学的转身既充满机遇,也伴随 着前所未有的挑战与不确定性。 作者: 濮振宇 封图:图虫创意 全球光学巨头舜宇光学正站在转型的十字路口。2025年上半年,舜宇光学的业绩呈现出"冰火两重 天"的图景:传统支柱手机镜头业务在行业红海中主动收缩,出货量同比下滑;与此同时,包括车 载 ...
国有大行“期中考”答卷: 扩规模、稳息差、向中间收入要效益
经济观察报· 2025-08-30 12:17
Core Viewpoint - The six major state-owned banks in China reported growth in asset scale but showed a divergence in operational indicators, with three banks experiencing a decline in net profit [2][7]. Group 1: Asset Scale Growth - All six major state-owned banks demonstrated growth in asset scale, with specific figures indicating significant increases: - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) reached total assets of 52.32 trillion yuan, up 7.2% from the previous year [5]. - Agricultural Bank of China (ABC) reported total assets of 46.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.37% [5]. - China Construction Bank (CCB) had total assets of 44.43 trillion yuan, growing by 9.52% [5]. - Bank of China (BOC) reached total assets of 36.79 trillion yuan, up 4.93% [6]. - Postal Savings Bank of China (PSBC) reported total assets of 18.19 trillion yuan, increasing by 6.47% [6]. - Bank of Communications (BoCom) had total assets of 15.44 trillion yuan, a growth of 3.59% [6]. Group 2: Operational Performance Divergence - The operational performance of the six banks varied, with ABC, BoCom, and PSBC achieving positive growth in both operating income and net profit: - ABC's operating income was 3699.37 billion yuan, up 0.85%, with a net profit of 1399.43 billion yuan, growing by 2.53% [9]. - BoCom's operating income reached 1333.68 billion yuan, increasing by 0.77%, and net profit was 460.16 billion yuan, up 1.61% [10]. - PSBC reported operating income of 1794.46 billion yuan, a 1.50% increase, and net profit of 494.15 billion yuan, growing by 1.08% [11]. - In contrast, ICBC, BOC, and CCB saw declines in net profit despite positive growth in operating income: - ICBC's operating income was 4270.92 billion yuan, up 1.6%, but net profit fell by 1.5% to 1688.03 billion yuan [12]. - CCB reported operating income of 3942.73 billion yuan, a 2.15% increase, while net profit decreased by 1.45% to 1626.38 billion yuan [12]. - BOC's operating income was 3290.03 billion yuan, up 3.76%, but net profit declined by 0.31% to 1261.38 billion yuan [12]. Group 3: Net Interest Margin Pressure - The net interest margin (NIM) for the major banks remained under pressure, with specific figures indicating declines: - ICBC's NIM was 1.30%, down 13 basis points year-on-year [15]. - CCB's NIM was 1.40%, down 14 basis points [15]. - ABC's NIM was 1.32%, down 13 basis points [15]. - BOC's NIM was 1.26%, down 18 basis points [15]. - PSBC's NIM was 1.70%, down 21 basis points [15]. - BoCom's NIM was 1.21%, down 8 basis points [15]. Group 4: Non-Interest Income Growth - In response to the pressure on interest income, several banks have shifted focus to non-interest income: - BOC's non-interest income accounted for over one-third of its operating income, with a growth of over 70% in non-interest income from overseas institutions [19]. - BOC's non-interest income was 1141.87 billion yuan, up 26.43%, increasing its share of operating income from 28.48% to 34.71% [20]. - ICBC's non-interest income was 1135.16 billion yuan, growing by 6.5%, with its share of operating income rising from 25.34% to 26.58% [21]. - ABC's non-interest income totaled 874.64 billion yuan, up 15.1%, increasing its share from 20.71% to 23.64% [22]. - CCB's non-interest income was 1075.64 billion yuan, a 19.64% increase, raising its share to 27.28% [22]. - PSBC's non-interest income reached 403.88 billion yuan, growing by 19.09%, with its share increasing from 19.18% to 22.51% [23].
黄华珍:善用新规解决存量PPP项目困境
经济观察报· 2025-08-30 07:26
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by existing PPP (Public-Private Partnership) projects in China, particularly due to economic pressures and delayed payments from local governments. It highlights new regulations aimed at addressing these issues and ensuring timely payments based on performance results [2][4][8]. Summary by Sections Current Challenges in PPP Projects - Existing PPP projects are experiencing stagnation and financial imbalance, with many facing delays and underperformance in user payments. Experts express concerns that prolonged issues could lead to financial difficulties for investors and systemic risks for financial institutions [2][3]. - Local governments often delay payments, citing hidden debts related to PPP projects, which exacerbates the financial strain on these projects [4][8]. New Regulations and Their Implications - In August, the State Council issued new guidelines to regulate the construction and operation of existing PPP projects, emphasizing the need for local governments to prioritize projects with certain revenue potential and to expedite the completion of near-finished projects [2][5]. - The new regulations clarify that financing for existing PPP projects is not illegal, addressing previous concerns about increasing local government hidden debts. It specifies that local governments should not be required to provide additional commitments for financing [3][7]. Financial Support and Communication - The new guidelines encourage financial institutions to actively support financing for ongoing projects and prohibit arbitrary termination of credit approval processes. This is expected to alleviate financing difficulties faced by existing PPP projects [6][11]. - The regulations promote equal communication among social capital, financial institutions, and government entities to optimize project implementation and reduce operational costs [11][14]. Addressing Payment Delays - The new rules mandate timely payments based on performance results and prohibit delays due to construction acceptance or performance evaluations. This aims to tackle the prevalent issue of payment arrears from local governments [4][8]. - Previous regulations have provided channels for addressing payment issues, and the new guidelines reinforce the importance of adhering to these payment structures [8][9]. Future Considerations - The article notes that while the new regulations provide a framework for addressing existing issues, the effectiveness of these measures in enhancing government credit and ensuring timely payments remains uncertain [9][10]. - The potential for renegotiating project terms to lower financing costs and improve repayment capabilities is highlighted, suggesting that all parties should engage in discussions to find mutually beneficial solutions [10][12].
存量PPP项目有救了
经济观察报· 2025-08-30 06:50
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by different stakeholders in the PPP (Public-Private Partnership) sector, highlighting the need for new regulatory frameworks to address existing issues and improve project execution [2][11]. Group 1: Challenges Faced by Stakeholders - Social capital faces issues such as local governments delaying payments for completed work [11]. - Local governments encounter multiple challenges, including delays in project completion settlements, difficulties in loan interest rate adjustments, and unclear allocation of special funds [11]. - The lack of a clear policy framework has led to compliance issues, affecting the confidence of financial institutions and social capital, which in turn impacts project progress [11][12]. Group 2: Historical Context and Development of PPP - The PPP model was heavily promoted starting in 2014, with the aim of providing new financing channels for local governments and improving public service efficiency [7][8]. - At its peak, the total investment in the PPP management library exceeded 16 trillion yuan, covering various public service sectors [3][7]. - The transition from promotion to regulation began in 2017, with the government implementing measures to clean up the PPP market and address issues of "abuse" and "overextension" [8][9]. Group 3: Recent Developments and New Mechanisms - On August 20, 2023, the State Council issued new guidelines to regulate the construction and operation of existing PPP projects, aiming to restore confidence in the sector [2][13]. - The new guidelines provide strong support for existing PPP projects through various funding sources, including general bonds and special bonds [13]. - The guidelines encourage equal communication and cooperation among social capital, financial institutions, and government entities to optimize project implementation and reduce operational costs [15][16]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The article raises concerns about the future of public service and infrastructure funding as the PPP model gradually declines [18]. - As of August 2025, only 254 new mechanism projects have been registered, primarily focused on user-pay projects, indicating a significant reduction compared to the peak period [19]. - The industry is exploring alternative financing methods, but no large-scale replicable solutions have emerged to replace the original PPP model [19].