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某官媒对中国时局的神分析,叹为观止!
首席商业评论· 2025-12-21 07:00
作为一名财经博主,我平时做研究的时间,远多于做交易的时间。 上场下单眼疾手快,研究功夫全在场外。 一旦研究,都需要深度阅读各种信息媒体。 其中一定包括上次我曾经给大家推荐过的一本中国顶级 优秀纸媒。 有多优秀? 它曾三次非常准确地预测了未来。 第一次,2003年非典时期 ,很多人认为中国的经济会高速跌落,但是它却告诉大家, 中国经济正 处于大爆发的前夜。 极少数看了并相信的人就抓住了 2003年—2007年的 经济 暴涨期 。 第二次,2007年全国经济形势一片大好,但它却提醒大家提防 "泡沫经济" ,极少数相信的人,因 此躲过了2008年爆发的席卷全球的金融危机。 第三次,2022年末 疫情后百废待兴 ,房价短期内大幅上涨,看似一片欣欣向荣。 这本杂志再一次警示大家, 未来 房价会下降40%,楼市会回到2016年 ,当然很多人也不相信。 结果现实 就是2025年,今年的楼价的确回到了2016年水平! 它只是一本纸媒。也是被人遗忘的一种媒体了。即使纸媒曾经是很多中国人的岁月印记。 那时候的我, 年初月始, 也会比着目录 定期 刊杂志,每个 月末 的几天都满心期盼,盼着家里邮 箱收到...... 或从亲朋好友老 ...
1年闭店37%,新能源汽车逃离购物中心
首席商业评论· 2025-12-21 04:33
编者荐语: 中国汽车大市场还是在下沉市场,但做品牌需要在1-2线城市先火起来。 以下文章来源于深氪新消费 ,作者郑栾 深氪新消费 . 深氪新消费成立于2016年,聚焦新经济,关注新消费、新零售等领域的商业进化。 三年前,上海陆家嘴正大广场的首层还被特斯拉、蔚来的门店与汽车占据,时常能看到试驾专员带着顾客 穿过商场走廊奔向停车场。如今,曾经停放展车的200平米空间已被泡泡玛特的主题展与Salomon的限量款 鞋墙分割,排队抽盲盒的年轻人取代了咨询续航的购车者。 正当消费者逐渐习惯在购物中心的一楼看到新能源汽车的门店和产品时,这些品牌却在悄悄撤离。 新能源品牌为何集体撤离购物中心?哪些品牌又在取代它们? 01 新能源汽车匆忙撤离 奔向县域 时代变了。 几年前,无论是特斯拉还是蔚小理,都需要一个触达消费者的"门面",于是这些车圈新贵纷纷拿下一二线城 市核心商圈的黄金位置。 2013年,特斯拉在北京侨福芳草地开设了国内首家购物中心直营店,这种线上下单、线下体验的新零售方 式,让其他品牌纷纷跟进。2020年,蔚来为了拿下南京西路兴业太古汇的临街门面,五年的租金成本达到 了惊人的8334万元。 时至今日,新能源汽车品牌之 ...
“寒武纪已成老登”
首席商业评论· 2025-12-21 04:33
以下文章来源于投资界 ,作者冯雨晨 投资界 . 清科控股旗下创业与投资资讯平台 没有永远的小甜甜。 短短十来天,两家市值超3000亿的巨头诞生——摩尔线程和沐曦集成排队科创板敲钟,首日涨幅均超 500%,令人惊叹。若是打新中上一签,当日即可实现数十万浮盈。 一时间,几乎所有的目光都聚集在这两家芯片新贵身上。而作为AI芯片带头大哥的寒武纪,也在这个热闹 非凡的时刻被"端"了出来。正如股民们调侃:摩尔线程和沐曦集成就像18岁热情洋溢的少女,寒武纪则像沉 默寡言的老登。 其实,此时距离市场尊称其为"寒王",才仅仅过去不到四个月。 小登排队敲钟暴涨 寒王有点落寞 不曾想,A股总市值一下子就增了6000多亿。 12月5日,摩尔线程在万众期待中摘下"GPU第一股",首日表现较发行价最高涨超5倍,市值突破3000亿元。 随后几个交易日又续写新高,股价一度开挂冲至941元成为A股"第三贵",市值逼近4500亿元。 恰恰是这种FOMO情绪,一定程度上为今天新贵们的估值抬了下轿。 然而这似乎只是一个开始。 昨日(12月17日),沐曦集成登陆科创板,一度暴涨超750%,迅速夺走A股"第三贵"头衔,市值最高冲上 3500亿元。那些参 ...
深圳水贝下架“投资金”|首席资讯日报
首席商业评论· 2025-12-21 04:33
1. 深圳水贝下架"投资金" 在黄金税收新政发布后,水贝市场各大交易中心的价格显示大屏会分别显示"投资金"与"首饰金"价格。不 过,记者最近看到一些水贝商家在微信朋友圈等社交账号上发布动态表示,市场管理趋严,水贝市场再 无"投资金"。近日,记者走访水贝市场发现,无论是线下大屏还是线上小程序都悄悄隐去了"投资金"。 2.马斯克:前所未有的特大诈骗案 有贴文转载《华尔街日报》的一篇报道称,"美国福利制度存在深层次的严重弊病 —— 这一问题的严重性 与危害性,远超近期登上新闻头条的明尼苏达州惊天诈骗案…… 联邦福利实际支出飙升765%,增速是联邦 总支出的两倍以上,如今每年耗资达1.4万亿美元。倘若将这笔资金直接平均发放给政府划定的1980万户贫 困家庭,每户每年可获超7万美元补助。"马斯克对此表示,"前所未有的特大诈骗案。" 3.外国人入境卡网上填报实施满月,上海空港口岸使用人数超26万人 记者从上海边检总站获悉,截至当日,国家移民管理局外国人入境卡网上填报新举措实施已满月。在上海 空港口岸(浦东、虹桥国际机场口岸),通过网上填报系统完成入境卡填写的外籍旅客数量持续稳步提 升,使用人数超26万人次,占符合网上填报 ...
第一个20万亿大省,呼之欲出
首席商业评论· 2025-12-21 04:33
以下文章来源于国民经略 ,作者凯风 国民经略 . 在这里,读懂中国经济、城市和楼市 省域经济,天花板还在抬升。 01 "二十大"召开的2022年,广东GDP为13万亿元左右。 经济总量翻番,意味着 到2035年广东GDP总量要达到25万亿以上。 如果以2020年为基准,2035年广东GDP也要达到22万亿左右。 去年,广东GDP已站上14万亿大关,与俄罗斯相当,连续36年位居全国首位。 以25万亿为目标,年均名义复合增长率要在5%以上;以22万亿为目标,年均名义增速只要3.5%左右。 无论如何,到2035年,广东大概率都会晋级20万亿大省,并朝着25万亿乃至更高水平跃升。 考虑到人民币升值大势, 届时广东GDP总量将达到4万亿美元以上,直追全球第一大省——美国加州。 30多年前,广东曾以"亚洲四小龙"为追赶目标,如今早已悉数完成。 如今,加州正在成为广东新的赶超对象,路虽远,但行则将至。 根据IMF统计,2024年加州名义GDP约为4.1万亿美元,与日本基本相当,放在全球可排在第四大经济体。 广东之于中国,相当于加州之于美国;大湾区之于中国,也相当于旧金山湾区之于美国。 20万亿大省,还有多远? 广东省"十五 ...
再见了,万宁!
首席商业评论· 2025-12-20 03:54
Core Viewpoint - Mannings, a Hong Kong-based health and beauty retail chain, has announced its complete withdrawal from the Chinese market, ceasing all offline and online operations by early 2026, which reflects a strategic decision influenced by its inability to adapt to the rapidly evolving consumer landscape in China [5][7][19]. Group 1: Company Withdrawal Announcement - Mannings will close its offline stores by January 15, 2026, and its online platforms, including its official mini-program, will cease operations by December 28, 2025 [5][6]. - The brand has struggled to establish a significant presence in the Chinese market, with over 120 stores but failing to penetrate beyond certain regions [7][9]. Group 2: Market Position and Competition - Mannings entered the Chinese market during a period of rapid retail growth but failed to capitalize on this opportunity, unlike its competitor Watsons, which aggressively expanded its store network [9][10]. - The brand's cautious and conservative approach hindered its ability to transition from a regional to a national brand, resulting in a lack of visibility among the broader consumer base [11][12]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Experience - The shift in consumer demographics, particularly among younger generations, has led to a disconnect between Mannings' traditional retail model and the expectations of modern consumers who prioritize experience and information transparency [13][14]. - The brand's in-store experience has been perceived as outdated, with younger consumers preferring brands that engage them through social media and experiential marketing [14][15]. Group 4: Strategic Misalignment - Mannings has not effectively adapted its product offerings to meet the evolving preferences of younger consumers, leading to a loss of market relevance [15][17]. - The company's supply chain and operational efficiency have lagged behind competitors, impacting its ability to respond to market changes and consumer demands [17][18]. Group 5: Parent Company Strategy - DFI Retail Group's decision to withdraw Mannings from the Chinese market reflects a broader strategic choice to focus on more promising business units, such as its successful restaurant and supermarket operations [19][21]. - The contrasting strategies of DFI's other brands, which have successfully adapted to local market demands, highlight the challenges Mannings faced in a competitive and rapidly changing retail environment [20][21].
浙江夫妻卖书包,年入6亿
首席商业评论· 2025-12-20 03:54
以下文章来源于邱处机 ,作者邱鑫浩 邱处机 . 专门研究商业牛人 "创始人必须时刻拥抱变化"。谈到几年前的危机时,卡拉羊品牌创始人张新华仍然记忆犹新。 2020年疫情来袭时,卡拉羊的线下销售渠道基本瘫痪,对公司业绩产生巨大影响。张新华没有坐以待毙, 带领员工开始在抖音上寻找增量。短短一个月内,卡拉羊触达6万多名短视频达人,最后说服了5000多位达 人帮忙带货。虽然达人带货没有给卡拉羊带来很大的销量,但张新华借此看到了短视频的机会,便决定带 领团队进军直播带货。 "当时没人相信我们能把短视频做起来,包括我们联合创始人都不相信。"张新华感慨万分。不过时至今日, 张新华在抖音的账号"卡拉羊总裁华姐"已经拥有150多万粉丝,卡拉羊在抖音的月销售额也一度突破到1.3亿 元。 在同行一片哀嚎中,卡拉羊的逆势崛起再次证明了那句话——勇敢的人,先享受世界。 张新华一向勇于破局。29年前,为了圆自己的设计梦,张新华辞掉国家分配的"铁饭碗",和丈夫一同回到家 乡海宁,开始了箱包的创业征程。 从一个家庭小作坊开始,经过多年的奋斗,如今的卡拉扬已经成为一家年产值超8亿元、线上销售额超6亿 元、员工人数超过2000人的大型集团公司,主 ...
第一批混日子的印度CEO,正被欧美「清算」
首席商业评论· 2025-12-20 03:54
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rise of Indian-origin executives in major global companies, highlighting that approximately 10% of CEOs in the Fortune 500 are of Indian descent, and over 60% of the top 300 global companies have Indian-origin executives [5][6]. Group 1: Education and Leadership Development - The Hyderabad Public School is identified as a significant institution producing many successful Indian CEOs, emphasizing leadership education rather than just academic performance [8][9]. - The school has a strong alumni network that fosters connections and support among graduates, contributing to their professional success [14][17]. Group 2: Socioeconomic Factors - The tuition fees for the Hyderabad Public School range from 171,000 to 225,000 Indian Rupees (approximately 13,000 to 17,000 RMB), indicating that it primarily serves middle-class and affluent families [12]. - The school's admission process includes interviews, suggesting a selective environment that favors students from elite backgrounds [12][14]. Group 3: Networking and Mentorship - A strong alumni community provides preferential treatment for members seeking assistance, which is a common practice in other prestigious Indian institutions like IIT and IIM [17]. - The mentorship system among Indian executives, referred to as "薪火相传" (passing the torch), plays a crucial role in helping new entrants navigate corporate hierarchies and secure promotions [18][20]. Group 4: Cultural Dynamics in the Workplace - The article notes that while Indian executives excel in networking and self-promotion, there are criticisms regarding their actual performance and effectiveness in delivering results [24][25]. - Recent trends show a dichotomy where new Indian executives are rising, but many established ones are facing layoffs due to performance issues, indicating a shift in corporate expectations [27].
顺丰主动退出抖音电商退货业务|首席资讯日报
首席商业评论· 2025-12-20 03:54
Group 1 - SF Express has voluntarily exited the Douyin e-commerce return service market, with JD, Zhongtong, and YTO taking over the fulfillment responsibilities [2] - Alibaba's DingTalk has initiated a secret project called "D Plan," potentially entering the AI hardware sector, with speculation about launching a product similar to "Doubao Phone" [3] - China Gold announced the resignation of board member Jia Yubin due to work adjustments, effective immediately upon delivery of the resignation report [4] Group 2 - Vanke A is actively promoting bulk asset transactions, having completed 19 projects with a signed amount of 6.86 billion yuan in the first three quarters, covering various asset types [5][6] - Moutai has denied rumors of supply reduction, stating that normal shipments continue, while some non-standard products have seen reductions of 30%-50% [7] - Digital China confirmed a strong partnership with NVIDIA, distributing multiple series of NVIDIA products, which is expected to positively impact the company's development [8] Group 3 - On December 18, ON Semiconductor announced a collaboration with GlobalFoundries to jointly develop the next generation of GaN power devices, starting with 650V devices [9] - AI model "MiniMax" has passed the Hong Kong Stock Exchange hearing, having developed a series of multimodal general models since its establishment in 2021 [10] - Guizhou Zhenjiu announced a second batch of regions for phase-wise suspension of large-scale recruitment for its Zhen project to ensure healthy market operations [11] Group 4 - Shandong Province has released an action plan to support the development of smart home appliances and service robots, integrating advanced manufacturing and AI technology [12] - ByteDance is advancing collaborations with hardware manufacturers like Vivo and Lenovo to develop AI smartphones, aiming to pre-install AIGC plugins [13] - Zhaoyi Innovation's IPO application has expired after six months since submission, despite passing the Hong Kong Stock Exchange hearing earlier [14]
一家超级明星公司凉了
首席商业评论· 2025-12-19 03:44
市场的周期变化从不留情,人造肉行业就正在亲身经历从资本狂热追捧到迅速坠落的戏剧性周期。 近日,"人造肉第一股"Beyond Meat(中文名"别样肉客")被曝已关闭其在中国的电商平台旗舰店,且公司 位于浙江嘉兴的工厂也已停产。这一系列动作被市场普遍解读为,是这家美国公司退出中国市场的明确信 号。 成立于2009年的别样肉客,是美国最早成立的一批植物人造肉公司之一。凭借"环保革命"与"科技理想"的鲜 明标签,公司在创立后的十余年里备受资本青睐——自2012年起便以每年一轮的稳定节奏一路融资到G轮, 投资方名单中不乏比尔·盖茨、莱昂纳多·迪卡普里奥等名人身影。 2020年,风头正盛的别样肉客将业务版图拓展至中国,在嘉兴建立了两座工厂。当时公司雄心勃勃,宣称 其中一座将成为全球规模最大、技术领先的植物肉生产基地之一。然而五年过去,现实并未如预期展开。 中国市场受挫,仅仅是别样肉客全球困境的一个缩影。自2022年起,公司便陷入连续多个季度的营收下滑 与亏损扩大的泥潭,股价较历史最高点更是暴跌近97%。 昔日的"资本宠儿",如今已陷入严峻的经营危机之中。 以下文章来源于投中网 ,作者王满华 投中网 . 投中网是领先的创 ...