Core Insights - Reddit is positioning 2025 as a breakthrough year, achieving over 60% revenue growth for six consecutive quarters and maintaining a 90% gross margin [3] - The company reported Q4 advertising revenue of $690 million, a 75% year-over-year increase, and projects Q1 2026 revenue between $595 million and $605 million, representing a 52%-54% growth [3] - Reddit is focusing on enhancing user engagement and monetization strategies, particularly through its Answers and Search services, which have seen significant growth in query volume [3][5] Revenue and User Metrics - Reddit has over 500 million monthly active users and 120 million daily active users, with a notable increase in engagement metrics [3][16] - The company has integrated login and non-login user experiences for ad visibility, aiming to increase overall engagement [7] Product Development and AI Integration - Reddit is investing in machine learning to improve user experience and streamline the onboarding process for new users [5] - The company is transitioning its relationship with Google and OpenAI from transactional to more collaborative product partnerships, with Reddit Profound being a key source for AI-generated answers [3][8] Advertising Strategy - Reddit Max is being developed to simplify the advertising process for existing clients, with a focus on converting lower-funnel advertisers [5] - The company emphasizes the importance of Return on Ad Spend (ROAS) and is working on enhancing measurement capabilities to support advertising effectiveness [9][13] Community and Brand Engagement - Brands are increasingly recognizing the value of engaging with Reddit's unique community, leading to the establishment of dedicated Reddit teams within their social media strategies [15] - The company aims to dispel the misconception of being a niche platform by highlighting its extensive user base and diverse community topics [16]

美股科技股超额收益，从10年通道的顶部一路跌至上周四收盘时的底部，随后在周五反弹。德银表示，周五的反弹或许标志着情绪的逆转，资金流向数 据也显示，极其拥挤的非科技板块交易已显露疲态，科技板块的资金流入正在回暖。 德意志银行在最新的研报中表示，这轮抛售的关键特征是：盈利预期实际上仍在上调，市场下跌完全由估值收缩驱动，而非基本面恶化。周五的反弹或 许标志着情绪的逆转。 与此同时，资金流向数据显示，极其拥挤的非科技板块交易已显露疲态，科技板块的资金流入正在回暖。 十年通道底部的反击 科技股的这次"触底反弹"并非偶然。报告指出，过去三个月，资金从大型科技股疯狂出逃，涌入其他板块，其导火索是2025年第三季度财报季——那时 市场首次看到了科技巨头之外盈利增长扩散的迹象。 资金流向的极端反转 然而，周五的反弹或许标志着情绪的逆转。德银表示： 大型成长股与科技股相对于标普500指数其余部分的表现， 从10月下旬位于其十年超额收益通道的顶部，一路跌至周四收盘时的底部，随后在周五反弹。 上周五美股报复性反弹，道指首破5万点，标普涨近2%，创去年5月以来最佳单日涨幅，英伟达大涨7%，这仅仅是死猫跳，还是新一轮上涨的号角？ 这种剧 ...

Core Viewpoint - The period of 2025-2026 marks the end of the "American exceptionalism" and the beginning of "global rebalancing," where the winners will shift from U.S. tech giants to international stocks, Chinese consumer stocks, and commodity producers in emerging markets [1][16]. Group 1: Market Indicators and Trends - A "sell" signal was issued by Michael Hartnett's redesigned indicator, which has reached an extreme reading of 9.6, the highest since March 2006 [2]. - The current market conditions are characterized by a combination of "position peak, liquidity peak, and inequality peak" [3]. - The "Bull & Bear Indicator" has reached its highest level since 2006, indicating heightened market risks [5]. Group 2: Asset Allocation and Investment Strategy - Hartnett's conclusion for 2026 asset allocation is straightforward: "long Main St, short Wall St," suggesting a focus on Main Street over Wall Street [4]. - The market's recent downturn aligns with Hartnett's warnings, as evidenced by significant drops in software stocks and cryptocurrencies, leading to a broader market panic [7]. - The shift in capital expenditures for tech giants is alarming, with projected AI-related capital expenditures reaching $670 billion in 2026, consuming 96% of their combined cash reserves, compared to just 40% in 2023 [8]. Group 3: Economic Implications and Observations - The Trump administration's policies aimed at reducing inflation through intervention in energy, healthcare, and credit prices may lead to unexpected declines in inflation by 2026, benefiting small and mid-cap stocks [9]. - Recent data shows a significant style shift in the market, with investment-grade bonds experiencing 41 consecutive weeks of net inflows [11]. - There has been a notable outflow from safe-haven assets, with gold funds seeing an $800 million outflow and cryptocurrency funds losing $1.5 billion, indicating a shift away from perceived bubbles [13]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Hartnett suggests that the current market downturn should be viewed as a "huge, healthy, and overdue bubble deflation," unless a systemic event occurs [15]. - The investment strategy moving forward should focus on undervalued assets closely tied to the real economy, as the market undergoes significant changes [17].

这位声名狼藉的掮客不仅协助阿丽亚娜·德·罗斯柴尔德摆平监管危机，更深度介入家族内部的"夺权"大戏与资本运作。最新解密的文件，揭示 了顶级名利场中，法律边缘的灰色交易与脆弱的人性依赖。 文件显示，爱泼斯坦曾作为幕后关键人物，协助该家族"摆平"了美国司法部（DoJ）的一项重磅调查，并因此索取了高达2500万美元的酬 劳。 这一数字，即便在华尔街顶尖投行的收费标准中，也堪称天价。 "搞定"美国司法部交易，获利2500万美元 我们把时间拉回到2015年末。 彼时，总部位于瑞士的埃德蒙·罗斯柴尔德银行正深陷合规风暴。因涉嫌协助美国富裕客户隐匿资产，该行正面临美国司法部的严厉审查， 巨额罚款与刑事指控的阴云笼罩在日内瓦总部上空。 在这一关头，集团掌门人阿丽亚娜·德·罗斯柴尔德（Ariane de Rothschild）转向了爱泼斯坦。 一封封曝光的电子邮件，记录了这场金钱交易的细节。2015年12月，阿丽亚娜在邮件中向爱泼斯坦确认和解金额："4500万？" 爱泼斯坦的回复透着精明的算计："算上给律师的1000万美元费用，以及给我的2500万美元，我认为你会发现……总额不到8000万是非常 划算的。" "和他（本杰明）长谈 ...

金属狂欢暂停，但舞曲未终。在这个"中场休息"阶段，盲目追高黄金可能面临数月的震荡折磨。相反，盯着制造业周期的复苏信号，在技术支撑位布局 基本金属，或许是捕捉下一轮上涨浪潮的最佳策略。 在经历了数月的单边上扬与狂热追逐后，全球金属市场似乎撞上了"天花板"。面对近期价格的剧烈波动，华尔街顶级投行摩根大通（J.P. Morgan）在2 月5日发布的技术策略报告中发出明确信号：金、银、铜等主要金属品种在未来几周都将进入"盘整期"。 然而，这并非牛市的终结。在摩根大通全球市场策略团队分析师Jason Hunter看来，当前的调整是长期上涨趋势中的必要休整。 Hunter表示，技术图表显示，黄金价格在经历了抛物线式的上涨后，动能已出现明显的衰竭迹象。他预测，金价将在未来数周甚至数月内形成一个宽幅 震荡的"持有模式"（Holding pattern）。在此期间，5000美元关口及5100-5150美元区域将构成沉重的阻力，限制金价的短期反弹空间。 尽管短期面临技术性回调，但支撑黄金牛市的核心逻辑——"货币贬值"（Debasement）主题依然完好。报告特别指出，美元指数（DXY）持续在100关 口下方运行，这是一个关键的长 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the growing bipartisan political consensus against the rapid expansion of data centers in the U.S., highlighting the risks posed by both political opposition and physical limitations of the electrical grid [2][4][15]. Group 1: Political Environment - The political landscape has seen unusual alignment between figures like Bernie Sanders and Ron DeSantis, both advocating for a slowdown in data center construction due to public concerns over noise, water usage, and rising electricity costs [4]. - New York has become the sixth state to consider a moratorium on new data center construction, reflecting a broader trend of community protests and regulatory scrutiny across various states [3][4]. Group 2: Financial Implications - The anticipated capital expenditure of approximately $600 billion by 2026 faces skepticism regarding its feasibility, especially given the current limitations of the U.S. electrical grid [7][10]. - Major tech companies, including Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Google, have planned AI infrastructure spending of $670 billion this year, raising concerns about whether these funds can be effectively utilized [7][9]. Group 3: Energy Demand and Supply Constraints - Data centers are projected to double their energy demand by 2035, increasing from 34.7 GW in 2024 to 106 GW, which is equivalent to the electricity consumption of 80 million households [9]. - The Texas electrical grid operator, ERCOT, has proposed a review of projects consuming approximately 8.2 GW of power, indicating a significant regulatory slowdown that could hinder the expansion of data centers [10]. Group 4: Market Reactions - The financial markets have reacted sharply to the risks associated with unspent capital, leading to significant sell-offs in momentum stocks, marking one of the largest single-day declines in a decade [11]. - Concerns over the inability to meet new electricity demands have negatively impacted independent power producers, with some stocks experiencing declines of up to 27% year-to-date [13].

一场由AI颠覆性突破驱动的"科技股灾难"，正在引发全球风险偏好的重置。此次结构性调整不仅导致比特币等高风险资产暴 跌，更动摇了"美国例外主义"投资范式。市场开始基于AI技术的实际颠覆能力，对赢家与输家进行严厉的甄别。 全球风险资产正经历一场剧烈的调整，高盛分析师将当前市场状况定性为"科技股灾难"。此次调整并非源于AI泡沫破裂，而是 AI技术"过于成功"地对传统软件及数据服务公司造成了颠覆性冲击。 在这场结构调整中，比特币回调最为显著，价格一度自历史高点腰斩，今年以来已暴跌逾20%。与此同时，美股科技板块显著 承压：标普500指数自前期高点回落近3%，而以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数跌幅达6%。 此轮调整标志着长达数年的风险资产普涨行情告一段落，市场正基于AI技术进步的实际受益逻辑进行残酷的优胜劣汰。 投资 者需正视一个新时代的到来： 在AI颠覆力全面显现的背景下，未能适应技术变革的企业将被市场无情抛弃。 AI技术进步引发行业洗牌 市场动荡的核心根源在于人工智能技术展现出的颠覆性效能超出预期，投资者正在重新评估AI对现有产业格局的冲击。 美国例外主义模式遭遇挑战 本次科技股市场的结构性调整，正在对长期以来主导全 ...

Bithumb原计划向用户发放每人2000韩元（约1.4美元）的现金促销奖励，但系统错误导致695名用户每人至少收到2000枚比特币。该交易所在35分钟 内限制了相关账户的交易和提现功能，并已追回99.7%的错发比特币。 韩国加密货币交易所Bithumb因操作失误向用户错发价值超过440亿美元的比特币，引发平台币价暴跌，监管层已启动审查程序。 按照当前比特币价格计算，Bithumb共错发了62万枚比特币，总价值约440亿美元。促销活动原本设计为向每位用户发放不低于2000韩元的小额现金奖 励，但系统执行时将数字单位从韩元错误替换为比特币， 导致奖励金额放大数十亿倍。 交易所在发现错误后迅速采取行动，在35分钟内冻结了受影响账户的交易和提现权限。截至目前，已有99.7%的错发比特币被追回，但仍有约0.3%尚 未收回，按比例计算约价值1.32亿美元。 监管审查全面升级 韩国金融监管机构对此次事故反应迅速。金融服务委员会在紧急会议后发布声明指出，这起事件揭示了虚拟资产行业存在的系统性风险。 监管层计划对加密货币交易所的内部控制系统、虚拟资产持有情况及运营流程进行全面审查。如果在审查过程中发现违规行为或管理漏洞，将立 ...

Lessons for America From Asia Nhac Nguyen/法新社 — 盖蒂图片社 本文作者尼古拉斯·克里斯托夫，纽约时报专栏作家。 上世纪80年代我第一次去越南时，越南的人均收入约为100 美元，我和妻子住的一家酒店（顺化 市最好的酒店之一）里，老鼠像雨点一样从我们房间的天花板上掉下来。 在现代，我曾到访过的一些东亚学校里，师生们都解释说，那些"漂亮"的男生女生就是毕业致辞 代表。这简直是书呆子的天堂，而这种价值观也促使许多学生格外努力学习。 想想我在胡志明市遇到的Tran Ha Hoang Chau。她没钱上大学，但决心无论如何都要拿到学 位。于是她决定一边全职工作一边全职学习。白天在大学学习，晚上则在咖啡馆工作，一周七天 无休。 上个月我在越南的喜来登酒店下榻，那里的人均收入约为5000美元，没有出现鼠患。摩天大楼 林立于城市街道，反映出8%的经济增长率，位居世界前列，而去年股市以美元计价更是飙升了 37%。胡志明市的预期寿命为77岁，比美国一些州的居民还要长。 这种趋势在亚洲大部分地区普遍存在，并以惊人的速度发生了转变。一些亚洲国家在不到十年的 时间里，经济规模就翻了一番。经济 ...

两个核心争议是：传统软件企业能否在技术重构和人机协同中保持竞争力，以及未来利润最终可能会流向具备高效AI编排能力的公司。高盛认为，投资者情绪需2- 3季度稳定基本面支撑，软件板块短期估值压力依旧，熊市风险可能被延后而非消除。 高盛技术研究团队指出，软件类股当前面临的核心挑战集中在应用软件层的新竞争格局，以及基础设施公司资本支出的回报率问题。 Anthropic的一次常规更新在本周重挫软件股，尽管周五反弹，但仍处低位震荡。 高盛强调新技术周期的开启、2020-2021年融资潮培育的大量竞争者，以及系统架构需要重新设计等因素，正推高应用软件层的竞争烈度。 Borges为投资者勾勒出一份观察清单，列出七项可能预示AI-SaaS行业走向稳定的关键指标。该框架旨在帮助市场判断，应用软件公司能否抵御新竞争 者冲击，以及基础设施提供商的巨额资本支出何时能转化为可观回报。 AI-SaaS领域的两大核心争议 高盛技术研究团队指出AI-SaaS领域存在两大主要争议。 第一个争议点在于软件企业会被替代吗。 高盛认为，新的技术周期总是带来混乱。眼下，传统的SaaS巨头、像Palantir（PLTR.US）这样的高端定制软件商，以及那 ...