Group 1 - The overall economic environment has "not deteriorated," and the future of artificial intelligence will largely dominate market sentiment [2] - Concerns arose after the release of a new plugin by AI startup Anthropic, which could potentially reduce demand for services from software companies, impacting around 8% of the S&P 500 index [3] - Despite a brief recovery in stocks, most investors ended the week feeling "shocked," with market sentiment shifting from "bearish to deeply pessimistic" [4] Group 2 - The Nasdaq Composite Index experienced a significant drop of 5% within three trading days, resulting in a loss of trillions in market value [4] - There is an ongoing debate regarding the extent to which AI will commoditize Software as a Service (SaaS) companies, with differing opinions on whether the recent decline is overblown or justified [4] - Analysts noted that the winners and losers of revolutionary technologies often take years to become clear, but the resilience of the U.S. economy suggests that the decline in software stocks may not be long-lasting [5]

礼来此前公布的财报显示，2025年第四季度营收攀升至193亿美元，好于市场预期的179.6亿美元；每股收益为7.54美元，好于市场预期的 6.67美元。在第四季度，Zepbound销售额达43亿美元，高于市场预期的38亿美元;Mounjaro销售额达74亿美元，同样高于市场预期的67亿美 元。 与此同时，礼来还公布了对2026年的乐观增长展望，增长动力来自肥胖症治疗药物的强劲需求，且看起来并未受到定价压力的明显影响。礼来 预计，2026年营收将达到800亿美元至830亿美元——显著高于市场预期的776.2亿美元，意味着增长约25%。其业绩指引凸显出，竞争格局 正越来越多地由消费者需求而非保险覆盖情况所塑造。礼来还预计，2026年每股收益为33.50美元至35.00美元，即便区间下限也高于市场预 期的33.23美元。 高盛近日重申对礼来（LLY.US) "买入"评级，并将对该股的目标价从1145美元上调至1260美元。 高盛表示，礼来给出的2026年业绩指引显示出约25%的营收同比增长，并反映出在定价压力逐渐加大的背景下，市场对肥胖症药物领域的信心 依然持续。高盛指出，市场关注点很可能将转向礼来计划于2026年 ...

道达尔将启用其在得州的两处太阳能站点，提供10亿瓦的发电能力——在15年内相当于280亿 千瓦时的可再生能源。这两个太阳能站点将在第二季度开始建设。 道达尔美国可再生能源业务副总裁马克-安托万·皮尼翁表示，此次协议是道达尔在美国签署的规 模最大的可再生电力购电协议。道达尔目前已通过其持有50%股份的加州可再生能源公司 Clearway，间接向谷歌供应电力。Clearway近期签署了总规模达1.2吉瓦的协议，向美国三个 电力市场的数据中心提供电力。 谷歌清洁能源与电力总监威尔·康克林在一份声明中表示："我们与道达尔的协议为当地电力系统 新增了必要的发电能力，提升了整个地区可获得的、价格可负担且可靠的电力供应水平。" 在多数石油巨头趋于收缩可再生能源投资的背景下，道达尔选择逆势而行，持续在天然气发电厂 之外加大对可再生能源的投入，并在电力市场放松管制、价格波动较大的地区扩展其电力业务， 这些地区包括得州的ERCOT电力市场——在那里价格波动能够创造颇具吸引力的交易机会。 法国油气巨头道达尔(TTE.US)周一签署了两项长期协议，将向谷歌(GOOGL.US)位于得克萨斯州的数 据中心供应太阳能电力，以把握人工智能推 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights that high uncertainty has significantly impacted software valuation multiples, which have declined by approximately 33% since October 2025 [2] Group 1: Software Valuation - The average software valuation multiple has returned to around 4.4 times enterprise value/sales, reflecting levels seen during previous periods of high uncertainty in the public cloud sector [3] - Investors are underestimating the ability of existing vendors to benefit from AI adoption [3] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The report suggests that pessimistic views on generative AI have led to a lack of trust in the ability of existing software vendors to participate in this innovation cycle [4] - Morgan Stanley identifies Microsoft, ServiceNow, Salesforce, Atlassian, Snowflake, Cloudflare, Shopify, and Palo Alto Networks as attractive investment opportunities due to their strong product cycles, improved financial metrics, and discounted valuations [4] - Microsoft is noted as a key player in significant innovation cycles, while the valuation of ServiceNow is described as "very attractive" [4] - Salesforce's AI-related annual recurring revenue has increased by 114% year-over-year [4] - Shopify is viewed as highly capable of capturing a larger share of the expanding online commerce market [4] Group 3: Long-term Opportunities - Generative AI represents a significant long-term opportunity, with an estimated potential to add approximately $400 billion to the broader enterprise software total addressable market by 2028 [5] - The key issue is not whether software will ultimately monetize in this innovation cycle, but rather which companies will participate [6]

思科2024财年的盈利和营收均出现下滑，但从2025财年开始实现同比增长。该公司去年11月公布财报后，股价大幅上涨。截至10月底的季 度，每股收益增长10%至1美元，营收增长8%至149亿美元。其中，网络业务增长最快，增长15%至78亿美元。 在互联网泡沫破裂后的多年停滞之后，思科的复苏得益于其成功的业务多元化，通过收购Webex、AppDynamics和Splunk等公司，成功实现 了从网络硬件到软件和服务领域的多元化发展。此外，过去一年来，思科的股价表现优于大盘，持续受益于人工智能投资周期，其中最引人注目 的是其获得了13亿美元的人工智能基础设施订单。 投资者将关注管理层对公司人工智能基础设施业务发展势头及其积压订单的评论。截至10月底，公司剩余履约义务(RPO)为429亿美元，同比增 长7.2%。 思科(CSCO.US)将于周三美股盘后公布2026财年第二季度业绩。华尔街分析师 预测，每股收益为1.02美元，同比增长8.5%。营收预计将达到151.2亿美 元，较去年同期增长8.1%。 分析师预计，网络产品业务的营收可能达到77.4亿美元，同比增长13%;可观测性产品业务营收将达到2.9826亿美元，同比 ...

欧洲芯片制造商 STMicroelectronics NV (EPA:STMPA) 的股价周一上涨超过6%，此前该公司宣布 与亚马逊网络服务(Amazon Web Services)扩大战略合作伙伴关系，提升了投资者对其在快速增长的 数据中心和云基础设施市场中的曝光度的乐观情绪。 该券商指出，意法半导体已指引数据中心收入将从2025年约3.5亿美元增至2026年的5亿美元， 长期目标是到2030年达到约10亿美元。 "今天宣布与AWS扩大合作，深化了意法半导体与领先CSP的关系，现在提供定制模拟硅（包括 新型功率半导体）和高性能微控制器，"摩根士丹利表示。 该券商描述这一协议在结构上类似于意法半导体过去与苹果和特斯拉等大客户的定制合作伙伴关 系，并表示这"对中期收入可见性和组合都是递增的积极因素"，与AWS的关系可能在未来几年内 成为公司数据中心业务更重要的贡献者。 这家法意半导体集团表示，此次合作将使其成为AWS下一代计算基础设施的关键供应商，涵盖数 据中心连接、基于云的电子设计自动化(EDA)工作负载和定制硅等领域。 根据协议，意法半导体将向AWS发行最多2480万股普通股的权证，可在七年内以每股28.3 ...

Core Viewpoint - The storage chip market is facing the most severe supply shortage in 15 years, with Goldman Sachs raising expectations for supply-demand tension and warning of a significant gap in DRAM by 2026 [1][3]. DRAM Market Insights - Goldman Sachs predicts that the DRAM supply shortage will reach 4.9% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027, significantly higher than previous estimates of 3.3% and 1.1% [4]. - The primary driver of this tension is the explosive growth in server demand, with expectations for server DRAM (excluding HBM) to increase by 39% and 22% in 2026 and 2027, respectively [5]. - In contrast, demand for mobile and PC DRAM is expected to slow significantly, with growth rates of only 7% and 5% in 2026 [6]. NAND Market Insights - The NAND market is also experiencing a tightening supply-demand situation, with shortages projected at 4.2% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027, up from earlier forecasts of 2.5% and 1.2% [8]. - Strong growth in enterprise SSD demand is a key driver, with expectations for enterprise SSD demand to rise by 58% and 23% in 2026 and 2027 [8]. HBM Market Insights - Goldman Sachs has raised the total addressable market (TAM) for HBM to $540 billion in 2026 and $750 billion in 2027, reflecting improved demand from GPUs and ASICs [11]. - ASIC demand is accelerating, with HBM demand from ASICs expected to increase by 27% and 14% in 2026 and 2027, respectively [12]. Investment Recommendations - Goldman Sachs maintains a buy rating on Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, citing their strong positions in the traditional memory market and expected significant profit margins [15][16]. - Micron's rating has been downgraded to neutral with a target price of $235, as most positive factors have already been priced in [18]. - For equipment stocks, Tokyo Electron is highlighted for its strong market share in leading DRAM manufacturing tools, while Ulvac and Disco are recommended for their roles in capital expenditures related to DRAM and HBM [18].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential implications of a new agreement between the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury, which could reshape their relationship and impact the $30 trillion U.S. Treasury market, raising concerns about central bank independence, inflation expectations, and the attractiveness of the dollar [1][3]. Group 1: Proposed Agreement Details - The proposed agreement aims to clarify the Federal Reserve's balance sheet size and align it with the Treasury's debt issuance plan [3][5]. - Treasury Secretary Yellen supports limiting the use of quantitative easing (QE) to emergency situations and under government coordination [3][6]. - There is debate among market participants about whether this is a minor bureaucratic adjustment or a significant restructuring of the Fed's $6 trillion securities portfolio [3][4]. Group 2: Historical Context and Policy Implications - The proposal is reminiscent of the 1951 agreement, which limited the Fed's footprint in the bond market and established its independence in monetary policy [4]. - The Fed's recent actions, including massive securities purchases during crises, have been criticized for violating the principles established in the 1951 agreement [4]. Group 3: Asset Composition Shift - A significant aspect of the new agreement may involve a shift in the Fed's asset holdings from medium- and long-term securities to Treasury bills with maturities of 12 months or less [8][11]. - This shift could allow the Treasury to reduce the issuance of notes and bonds, potentially stabilizing borrowing costs [9][12]. Group 4: Market Risks and Concerns - The coordination between the Fed and Treasury could lead to increased market volatility and concerns about the Fed's independence, as it may tie monetary operations to fiscal deficits [13]. - Experts warn that if the agreement implies that the Treasury can rely on the Fed to purchase debt, it could undermine the Fed's inflation-fighting mandate and weaken the dollar's appeal [13][15]. Group 5: Skepticism About Formal Agreement - Some experts express skepticism about the likelihood of a formal agreement, suggesting that while cooperation may increase, it could also reduce the chances of a definitive arrangement [14][15]. - The potential for the Fed to exchange its mortgage-backed securities for Treasury bills is discussed, but this idea faces significant obstacles [14].

The Chinese 'Auntie' Investors Behind the Gold and Silver Frenzy 中国有在农历新年前购买黄金的传统。图片来源： Nicoco Chan/路透社 田露担心全球局势动荡。于是，她像数百万中国人一样：购买黄金。 上周，这位43岁的高中教师前往北京最大的珠宝市场之一，为即将到来的农历新年挑选金手镯、 项链和戒指。多年来，她为自己和亲戚购买了价值数千美元的黄金饰品。 中国家庭保值增值的选择并不多。房地产市场低迷，股市波动剧烈，银行利率也处于低位。这意 味着，从精明的中年女性投资者（被称为" 大妈 "）到Z世代，所有人都涌向黄金，将其视为价 值储存手段。 与国际基准价格相比， 中国黄金 和白银的交易价格一直处于溢价状态，这表明需求旺盛。 许多人通过微信或支付宝等手机应用程序购买黄金交易所交易基金（ETF），就像点咖啡一样方 便。世界黄金协会表示，去年中国 黄金ETF 的资金流入创下历史新高，上海期货交易所的黄 金期货交易量也创下年度新高。 还有一些人想要的是实物黄金。在黄金市场和珠宝店，他们排队购买金条和一克重的 金豆 ， 这些金豆通常装在玻璃罐里出售。 今 ...

India embraces free(er) trade 纳伦德拉·莫迪政府推动传统封闭经济的历史性开放 © FT 合成图；法新社/盖蒂图片社/祖玛 上周，印度总理纳伦德拉·莫迪宣布与美国达成新的贸易协定，而就在一周前，印度刚刚与欧盟达 成了一项全面的贸易协定。印度议员们拍着桌子，高喊着莫迪的名字。 "这些协议将使印度的制成品关税税率达到两三年前根本无法想象的水平，"莫迪的前首席经济顾 问、现任彼得森国际经济研究所研究员的阿文德·苏布拉马尼亚说。 随着美印协议的细节在周末曝光，反对派指责莫迪在农产品关税和停止购买俄罗斯石油的承诺上 向特朗普"屈服"，但商务部长皮尤什·戈亚尔表示，该协议将"为印度出口商打开一个价值 30 万 亿美元的市场"。 美国总统唐纳德·特朗普本月宣布，美国将大幅削减对印度商品的关税。 © Jim Watson/AFP/Getty Images 美国达成的这项协议反映了莫迪政府在国内和国际上面临的双重现实。印度如今发现自己夹在动 荡不安的国家之间，同时又需要大力发展劳动密集型制造业，以创造更多像其他亚洲国家那样以 出口为导向的增长。 分析人士称，莫迪自 2014 年上任以来一直积极推行贸 ...