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信质集团(002664):收入稳健增长,机器人加速布局
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2025-04-28 09:30
[Table_Title] 证券研究报告 / 公司点评报告 收入稳健增长,机器人加速布局 事件: [Table_Summary] 公司发布 2024 年年度报告及 2025 年一季报。2024 年实现营业收入 59.18 亿元,同比增长 28.22 %,归母净利润 0.21 亿元,同比下滑 91.32%,扣非归母净利润 0.19 亿元,同比下滑 92.59%。2025Q1 实现 营收 12.56 亿元,同比下滑 2.93 %,归母净利润 0.06 亿元,同比下滑 87.86 %,扣非归母净利润 0.06 亿元,同比下滑 86.64%。 收入稳步增长,盈利静待改善。收入端,公司 2024 年实现较好增长, 分业务来看,汽车零部件/电动车零部件/冰压机零部件实现营收 39.05/9.27/3.88 亿元,同比增长 39.91% / 3.02%/ 22.74%。盈利端,公司 盈利增速慢于收入端,2024 年毛利率实现 8.49%,同比减少 5.31pct, 净利率 0.35 %,同比减少 4.83pct。分业务来看,汽车零部件/电动车零 部件/冰压机零部件实现毛利率 3.76%/-7.35%/-3.18%,同比-5 ...
美湖股份(603319):经营短期承压,机器人进展顺利
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2025-04-28 09:18
[Table_Title] 证券研究报告 / 公司点评报告 经营短期承压,机器人进展顺利 事件: [Table_Summary] 公司发布 2024 年年度报告。2024 年实现营业收入 19.77 亿元,同比增 长 3.65%,归母净利润 1.66 亿元,同比下滑 23.48%,扣非归母净利润 1.47 亿元,同比下滑 26.96%。其中,2024Q4 实现营收 4.98 亿元,同 比下滑 9.25 %,归母净利润 0.22 亿元,同比下滑 66.01 %,扣非归母净 利润 0.18 亿元,同比下滑 68.33%。 收入和盈利短期承压,静待改善。收入端,公司 2024 年稳定增长,分 业务来看,柴油机机油泵/汽油机机油泵/电机/变速箱泵/新能源车用零 部件实现营收 6.02/3.34/1.58/1.58/4.63 亿元,同比增长-0.23% / -4.90%/ +18.96%/-12.13%/+17.37%,实现销量 241.50/ 240.80/ 312.77/ 146.11/ 354.50 万台,同比+4.58%/-6.45%/+13.11%/+1.48%/+9.64%。盈利端, 公司盈利增速慢于收入端 ...
西麦食品(002956):新渠道表现亮眼,成本红利已开始显现
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2025-04-28 08:25
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 22.13 yuan over the next six months [5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.896 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 20.16%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 133 million yuan, up 15.36% year-on-year [1]. - The growth in revenue is driven by the rapid increase in sales of composite and cold oat products, with online sales channels growing over 17% and offline sales increasing by 14% [1][3]. - The company is expected to benefit from cost advantages as the price of Australian oats declines, enhancing profit margins [3]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 41.33%, a decrease of 3.22 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to rising oat prices and lower margins in online and new retail channels [2]. - The net profit margin for 2024 was 7.02%, down 0.30 percentage points year-on-year. However, in Q1 2025, the net profit margin improved to 8.28%, reflecting a positive trend [2]. - The company forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of 0.88, 1.21, and 1.52 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 21x, 15x, and 12x [3]. Revenue and Profit Growth Projections - The company anticipates a revenue growth rate of 18.14% for 2025, with net profit expected to increase by 47.82% [4]. - The projected revenue for 2025 is 2.24 billion yuan, with net profit reaching 197 million yuan [4]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company has established itself as a leader in the oat industry, with strong performance in both traditional and new retail channels [1][3]. - The successful launch of new products, such as oatmeal porridge in Sam's Club, indicates a robust sales strategy and market penetration [3].
从麦金利和里根时代看后续美国政策暨关税专题报告三:特朗普还有哪些牌?
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2025-04-28 07:44
Table_Info1] 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 证券研究报告 / 债券研究报告 特朗普还有哪些牌? ——从麦金利和里根时代看后续美国政策暨关税专题报告三 报告摘要: 风险提示:政策超预期变动,全球流动性及地缘政治风险 三代美国总统面临困境与采取措施 总统 贸易逆差与制造业 困境 贸易保护措施 威廉·麦金利 美国工业化初期,制 造业遭受欧洲成熟体 系冲击 《麦金利关税法》:平 均税率50%,对钢铁、 羊毛制品等加征60%- 70%关税,保护本土工 业 罗纳德·里根 1985年贸易赤字高达 1220亿美元,主要源 于日本汽车和电子产 品冲击;制造业外流 至亚洲和欧洲。 1.301条款与反傾销 税:对日本汽车、半导 体等加征45 %-100 %关 税,限制进口; 2.201 条款:以"国家安 全"为由保护钢铁、纺织 业,限制进口激增; 3.政治工具化:以关税 换取日本"自愿出口限 制",缓解国内压力。 唐纳德·特朗普 2020 年代年贸易逆 差达 1.2 万亿美元, 对华逆差占35%;制 造业占 GDP 比重跌 破 10 %,供应链依 赖中国,低技能岗位 被自动化替代,本土 供应链断裂,技术工 ...
上海银行(601229):2024年年报点评:业绩稳健增长,资产质量提升
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2025-04-28 06:24
--- 上海银行 2024 年年报点评 事件: [Table_Summary] 上海银行发布 2024 年年报,全年实现营业收入 529.86 亿元,同比增长 4.79%,实现归母净利润 235.60 亿元,同比增长 4.50%。其中,第四季度 实现营业收入 134.44 亿元,同比增长 19.06%,实现归母净利润 59.73 亿 元,同比增长 14.86%。全年加权平均 ROE 为 10.01%,同比下降 0.35 个 百分点。 点评: [Table_Info1] 上海银行(601229) 城商行Ⅱ/银行 [Table_Title] 证券研究报告 / 公司点评报告 业绩稳健增长,资产质量提升 -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 2024/4 2024/7 2024/10 2025/1 上海银行 沪深300 利息收入占比下降,投资收益显著提升。2024 年公司营收同比增长 4.79% 至 529.86 亿元,其中利息净收入 324.86 亿元,同比下降 7.62%,占营收 比例同比下降 8.23 个百分点至 61.31%,但仍主导公司营收;手续费及佣 金净收入为 39.59 亿元,同比下降 19 ...
五粮液(000858):保持稳健增长,渠道改革持续深化
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2025-04-28 06:16
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a 6-month target price of 173.1 CNY, compared to the closing price of 129.05 CNY on April 25, 2025 [5]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 89.175 billion CNY in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.09%, and a net profit of 31.853 billion CNY, up 5.44% year-on-year. For Q1 2025, revenue was 36.940 billion CNY, with a growth of 6.05%, and a net profit of 14.860 billion CNY, growing by 5.80% [2][3]. - The core product, the eighth-generation "Pu Wu," generated 67.875 billion CNY in revenue, accounting for 76.11% of total revenue, with an 8.07% year-on-year increase. Other liquor products contributed 15.251 billion CNY, representing 17.10% of total revenue, with an 11.79% increase [2]. - The company is focusing on continuous product innovation and brand enhancement, launching new products and optimizing channel structures, including expanding its direct sales and e-commerce presence [3]. Financial Summary - The company forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of 8.79 CNY, 9.52 CNY, and 10.51 CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 15X, 14X, and 12X [3]. - Revenue is projected to grow from 89.175 billion CNY in 2024 to 95.317 billion CNY in 2025, with a growth rate of 6.89% [4]. - The net profit is expected to increase from 31.853 billion CNY in 2024 to 34.104 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 7.07% [4].
诺普信(002215):蓝莓持续兑现,业绩保持高增
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2025-04-28 06:16
[Table_Title] 证券研究报告 / 公司点评报告 蓝莓持续兑现,业绩保持高增 事件: 公司发布 2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报:2024 年实现营收 52.9 亿元,同 比+28.4%,归母净利润 5.8 亿元,同比+148.1%;2025 年一季度实现营 收 21.0 亿元,同比+15.0%,归母净利润 6.3 亿元,同比+38.0%。 [Table_Summary] 点评: 蓝莓步入扩产节奏,利润实现大幅增长。公司 2024 年蓝莓产季在上半 年成功收官,下一产季于当年 Q4 拉开序幕,带动公司蓝莓业务持续高 增,产销量快速爬坡。2024 年公司生鲜消费类产品实现销售量 4.9 万吨, 同比+99.2%,同时生鲜消费业务实现收入 21.4 亿元,同比+251.3%。随 着新产季的深入,2025 年公司蓝莓业务预计保持稳步增长,一季度生鲜 消费类业务销售收入增加 1.6 亿,增长 16.94%,带动公司 Q1 实现归母 净利润同比高增。此外,公司在营销端的改革成果斐然,通过大力开展 渠道与品牌建设,不断加强与山姆、京东、OLE 等大型 KA 客户的合作, 持续强化"爱莓庄"、"迷迭蓝"等品 ...
航发集团召开集体业绩说明会,航发赛道保持高景气度
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2025-04-28 03:12
[Table_Info1] 国防军工 [Table_Date] 发布时间:2025-04-28 $$i k\neq\pm i k$$ 航发集团召开集体业绩说明会,航发赛道保持高景气度 报告摘要: [Table_Summary] 板块回顾:上周申万国防军工指数上涨 0.15%,上证指数上涨 0.56%,深 证成指上涨 1.38%,创业板指数上涨 1.74%,沪深 300 指数上涨 0.38%, 国防军工板块涨幅在 31 个申万一级行业中排名第 22。截至周五收盘, 申万国防军工板块 PE(TTM)为 72.51 倍,各子板块中航天装备为 104.77 倍,航空装备为 59.03 倍,地面兵装为 115.87 倍,航海装备为 83.42 倍, 军工电子为 82.55 倍。 航发集团召开集体业绩说明会。4 月 25 日,中国航发控股上市公司 2024 年度集体业绩交流活动在成都举行。航发动力 2024 年营收 478.8 亿元, 同比增速 9.48%;归母净利润 8.6 亿元,同比下滑 39.48%,主要原因系 公司在航空发动机关键技术领域的高研发投入导致成本上升;其次,原 材料价格波动和来自供应链端的压力对公司生 ...
黄金:牛市未尽
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2025-04-28 01:43
[Table_Summary] 金:牛市未尽。1)短期金价冲高又回落,主要系市场定价中美贸易摩擦 边际缓和+联储独立性担忧缓解,叠加短线交易偏拥挤,属于正常调整: 本周美方对华关税立场有所软化,先是 4/23 凌晨贝森特提及预计中美贸 易关系缓和将在不久的未来发生,而后 4/23 晚间外媒称特朗普政府正考 虑对中国商品关税降至 50%-65%。此外,4/23 特朗普表示无意解雇美联 储主席鲍威尔,也打消了前期市场对联储独立性的担忧。同时,黄金短 期交易相对拥挤(尤其国内市场,本周沪金隐含波动率升至近 5 年峰值, 沪金单日成交额显著放量),放大了避险情绪边际缓和下的资金流出冲 击。2)黄金牛市并未结束:先看短期问题,黄金会需要一些时间震荡来 消化前期的热钱涌入,以及实现波动率正常化,但上涨逻辑并未损坏, 第一,本周关税缓和更像是美方在资本市场压力下 The Art of Deal 的再 次演绎,中方明确表示中美尚未就关税问题进行任何谈判,且中方显然 已做好准备不会轻易妥协;第二,虽然特朗普言辞反复,但其底层逻辑 仍是要求修正美国在全球利益版图中的位置,因此即便与中方开启谈判, 其核心诉求如削减贸易赤字等较难实 ...
索通发展(603612):2024年报、25Q1季报点评:阳极快速涨价盈利大增,产能扩张有序推进
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2025-04-27 14:44
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the stock's performance in the next six months [4]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in profits due to the rapid price rise of prebaked anodes, with a net profit of 272 million yuan in 2024, compared to a loss of 723 million yuan in 2023. The first quarter of 2025 showed a net profit of 244 million yuan, marking a 676% year-on-year increase [1][2]. - The production and sales of prebaked anodes reached new highs in 2024, with production at 3.2645 million tons (up 10.25% year-on-year) and sales at 3.3169 million tons (up 11.35% year-on-year). Exports surged by 34.3% [2]. - The price of prebaked anodes stabilized in 2024 and began to rise sharply in 2025, with an average price of 5,039.5 yuan per ton in 2024 (down 20.2% year-on-year) and 5,848.4 yuan per ton in Q1 2025 (up 13.9% year-on-year) [2]. - The company's gross profit margin improved significantly, reaching 17.03% in Q1 2025, up from 8.94% in Q4 2024 [2]. Production Capacity and Expansion - The company achieved a total prebaked anode production capacity of 3.46 million tons in 2024, with ongoing expansion projects expected to increase capacity to approximately 5 million tons by the end of 2025 [3]. - New projects include a 600,000-ton project in Guangxi and a 320,000-ton project in Jiangsu, both aiming for completion by the end of 2025 [3]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 1.069 billion yuan, 1.143 billion yuan, and 1.426 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 7.9, 7.4, and 6.0 [3].