Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 16.80 CNY based on a 24x PE for 2025 [2][4]. Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to decline by 9.0% year-on-year, with a significant drop in net profit expected to be -3.57 billion CNY, reflecting a 216.2% decrease compared to the previous year [8]. - The first quarter of 2025 shows a revenue decline of 20.45% year-on-year, with a net profit of -0.21 billion CNY, indicating a 190.66% decrease [8]. - The company is focusing on improving operational efficiency and has achieved a gross margin of 26.39% in Q1 2025, which is an increase of 0.86 percentage points year-on-year [8]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2023: 13,408 million CNY - 2024: 12,196 million CNY (down 33.9%) - 2025: 12,751 million CNY (up 4.5%) - 2026: 13,389 million CNY (up 5.0%) - 2027: 14,304 million CNY (up 6.8%) [3][10] - **Net Profit**: - 2023: 307 million CNY - 2024: -357 million CNY (down 78.6%) - 2025: 435 million CNY (up 221.7%) - 2026: 633 million CNY (up 45.6%) - 2027: 881 million CNY (up 39.1%) [3][10] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023: 0.49 CNY - 2024: -0.57 CNY - 2025: 0.70 CNY - 2026: 1.01 CNY - 2027: 1.41 CNY [3][10] - **Gross Margin**: - 2023: 31.3% - 2024: 28.0% - 2025: 28.5% - 2026: 29.0% - 2027: 29.5% [3][10] - **Net Margin**: - 2023: 2.3% - 2024: -2.9% - 2025: 3.4% - 2026: 4.7% - 2027: 6.2% [3][10] Business Strategy and Developments - The company is accelerating its digital transformation and has launched the "Dian Medical Inspection Big Model" in collaboration with Huawei Cloud [8]. - The company has seen a steady growth in its diagnostic services, with a revenue of 45.20 billion CNY in 2024, down 12.86% year-on-year, but with significant growth in key disease areas [8]. - The company has also made strides in cost reduction and efficiency improvements, achieving a reduction of approximately 100 million CNY in costs through local procurement of key consumables [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 16.80 CNY based on a 24x PE for 2025 [2][4]. Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to decline by 9.0% year-on-year, with a significant drop in net profit expected to be -3.57 billion CNY, reflecting a 216.2% decrease compared to the previous year [8]. - The first quarter of 2025 shows a revenue decline of 20.45% year-on-year, with a net profit of -0.21 billion CNY, indicating a 190.66% decrease [8]. - The company is focusing on improving operational efficiency and has achieved a gross margin of 26.39% in Q1 2025, which is an increase of 0.86 percentage points year-on-year [8]. - The company is accelerating its digital transformation and has launched the "Dian Medical Inspection Big Model" in collaboration with Huawei Cloud, marking significant advancements in AI technology within the industry [8]. Financial Summary - The company's financial performance is summarized as follows: - Revenue (in million CNY): 2023A: 13,408; 2024A: 12,196; 2025E: 12,751; 2026E: 13,389; 2027E: 14,304 [3][10]. - Year-on-year growth rates: 2023A: -33.9%; 2024A: -9.0%; 2025E: 4.5%; 2026E: 5.0%; 2027E: 6.8% [3][10]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company (in million CNY): 2023A: 307; 2024A: -357; 2025E: 435; 2026E: 633; 2027E: 881 [3][10]. - Earnings per share (CNY): 2023A: 0.49; 2024A: -0.57; 2025E: 0.70; 2026E: 1.01; 2027E: 1.41 [3][10]. - Gross margin (%): 2023A: 31.3%; 2024A: 28.0%; 2025E: 28.5%; 2026E: 29.0%; 2027E: 29.5% [3][10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a target price of 18.18 CNY [3]. Core Views - The company is experiencing short-term profit pressure due to rapid store expansion and integration, with a focus on expanding into provinces outside its traditional markets and into county-level cities [7]. - The company reported a revenue of 18.00 billion CNY in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.57%, but a significant decline in net profit attributable to the parent company, which was 114 million CNY, down 79.23% year-on-year [7]. - The company aims to enhance its operational efficiency as it expands its store network, which totaled 11,498 stores by the end of 2024, with a net increase of 1,243 stores during the year [7]. Financial Information Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2023A: 17,380 million CNY - 2024A: 18,000 million CNY (3.6% growth) - 2025E: 19,512 million CNY (8.4% growth) - 2026E: 21,476 million CNY (10.1% growth) - 2027E: 23,919 million CNY (11.4% growth) [2][9] - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2023A: 549 million CNY - 2024A: 114 million CNY (-79.2% growth) - 2025E: 594 million CNY (420.4% growth) - 2026E: 748 million CNY (25.9% growth) - 2027E: 811 million CNY (8.5% growth) [2][9] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023A: 0.94 CNY - 2024A: 0.19 CNY - 2025E: 1.01 CNY - 2026E: 1.28 CNY - 2027E: 1.39 CNY [2][9] - **Profitability Ratios**: - Gross Margin: 33.0% in 2023A, expected to decline to 31.8% in 2024A, then gradually recover to 33.0% by 2027E [2][9]. - Net Margin: 3.2% in 2023A, dropping to 0.6% in 2024A, then recovering to 3.4% by 2027E [2][9]. - **Valuation Ratios**: - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: 18.3 in 2023A, expected to rise to 88.2 in 2024A, then decrease to 12.4 by 2027E [2][9]. - Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio: 1.3 in 2023A, remaining stable at 1.1 by 2027E [2][9].

1、家电国内以旧换新政策效果不及预期；2、原材料价格及汇率大幅波动；3、对美出口 关税大幅上升；4、海外需求超预期下滑。 国家/地区 中国 行业 家电行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 05 月 23 日 看好（维持） 周振 zhouzhen@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860523070002 家电行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 产能布局优势&关税缓解，家电出口链成长 性有望回归 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 一季报家电普遍超预期，后续家电内销有望持续受益政策拉动，结构上 K 线分化，高端 定位和性价比皆有不错表现，叠加今年空调旺季有望受益较高气温和较低库存，二季度 家电需求值得期待；4 月白电出口稳健增长，指引新兴市场潜力，后续对美出口扰动也有 望缓解。 推荐享受国内政策延续、积极出海，自身效率提升的优质白电龙头，建议关注美的集团 (000333，未评级)、海尔智家(600690，买入)、海信家电(000921，未评级)；推荐海外 成熟市场份额重塑，且短期全球供应链优势有望放大弹性的出海/出口优质企业，建议关 注海信视像(600060，增持)、欧圣电气(301187，买入)；推荐短期受 ...

推荐享受国内政策延续、积极出海，自身效率提升的优质白电龙头，建议关注美的集团 (000333，未评级)、海尔智家(600690，买入)、海信家电(000921，未评级)；推荐海外 成熟市场份额重塑，且短期全球供应链优势有望放大弹性的出海/出口优质企业，建议关 注海信视像(600060，增持)、欧圣电气(301187，买入)；推荐短期受益国补品类外溢， 中长期有望享受新兴家电品类需求红利的优质小家电企业，建议关注石头科技(688169， 买入)、小熊电器(002959，增持)。 家电行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 产能布局优势&关税缓解，家电出口链成长 性有望回归 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 一季报家电普遍超预期，后续家电内销有望持续受益政策拉动，结构上 K 线分化，高端 定位和性价比皆有不错表现，叠加今年空调旺季有望受益较高气温和较低库存，二季度 家电需求值得期待；4 月白电出口稳健增长，指引新兴市场潜力，后续对美出口扰动也有 望缓解。 风险提示 1、家电国内以旧换新政策效果不及预期；2、原材料价格及汇率大幅波动；3、对美出口 关税大幅上升；4、海外需求超预期下滑。 国家/地区 中国 行业 家电行业 报告发布 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][9] Core Views - The company is experiencing pressure on its FY25 performance, with a revenue decline of 6.6% year-on-year, resulting in a net profit drop of 41.9% [8] - Despite the challenges, the company is expected to maintain a high dividend payout ratio of 134%, exceeding market expectations [8] - The company is adjusting its revenue and gross margin forecasts for FY26-27 and introducing FY28 projections, with expected earnings per share of 0.21, 0.25, and 0.30 RMB respectively [3][9] Financial Performance Summary - FY24A revenue was 28,933 million RMB, while FY25A revenue decreased to 27,013 million RMB, with a projected FY26E revenue of 26,428 million RMB [3] - The gross profit margin for FY25A was 38.4%, down from 41.8% in FY24A, primarily due to increased retail discounts [8] - The net profit margin for FY25A was 4.8%, a decrease of 2.9 percentage points from the previous year [8] - The company’s cash flow from operating activities was 3,129 million RMB in FY23, with a net cash position of 25.9 million RMB at the end of FY25 [8] Market Position and Strategy - The company has been actively adjusting its store strategy, closing 1,124 stores while opening 258 new ones, resulting in a total of 5,020 stores by the end of FY25 [8] - New brand collaborations are being established, including partnerships with SOAR running and Norrøna, aimed at enhancing market presence in high-end segments [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the AI sector, including Alibaba-W, Kuaishou-W, Tencent Holdings, and Baidu Group-SW [3][8][11]. Core Insights - The AI sector is experiencing a new cycle driven by advancements in computing power, algorithms, and applications, with a strong recommendation to increase exposure to the Hong Kong internet sector [3][8]. - Major companies like Alibaba and Tencent continue to invest heavily in AI, with Alibaba's Q1 2025 capital expenditure reaching 24.61 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 120.7%, and Tencent's capital expenditure at 27.48 billion CNY, up 91.4% year-on-year [11][12][17]. Summary by Sections AI Industry Dynamics - The report highlights the ongoing high investment in AI both domestically and internationally, with major cloud service providers maintaining robust capital expenditures [8][17]. - Alibaba's new model, Wan2.1-VACE, can perform multiple video generation tasks, while Tencent's mixed image model achieves image generation speeds in milliseconds [20][23]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests increasing positions in Alibaba-W, Kuaishou-W, Tencent Holdings, and Baidu Group-SW, all of which are positioned well within the AI ecosystem [3][8]. - The expected growth in capital expenditures from these companies is anticipated to drive further advancements in AI applications and infrastructure [11][12]. AI Model Developments - New multi-modal models have been released by Alibaba, Tencent, and ByteDance, showcasing significant advancements in capabilities and performance metrics [20][23][31]. - The DeepSeek model has introduced innovative techniques to reduce training costs and improve efficiency, which could set a new standard in AI model training [32][34]. AI Applications - Baidu has launched its DeepSearch feature, which utilizes a vast content library to enhance search capabilities, offering a competitive edge over international counterparts [36][43]. - ByteDance's DBCopilot aims to streamline database management through AI, significantly improving operational efficiency [43]. Market Trends - The report tracks web traffic for AI applications, noting that DeepSeek leads in domestic web traffic, while ChatGPT remains dominant globally [44][46]. - The overall trend indicates a growing interest and usage of AI applications, with significant engagement metrics reported [44][46].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 7.02 CNY based on a 13x PE ratio for 2025 [2][5]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 151.81 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.1%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.51 billion CNY, up 15.3% year-on-year [10]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 42.02 billion CNY, a 3.8% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 970 million CNY, which is an 80.4% increase year-on-year [10]. - The CSO business showed strong competitiveness, with a revenue of 19.27 billion CNY in 2024, while the pharmaceutical industrial business grew by 21.5% to 3.01 billion CNY [10]. - The company is expanding its retail and new medical strategies, with over 29,000 franchise stores and a revenue of 5.39 billion CNY from franchise sales in 2024, marking a 54.9% increase [10]. Financial Summary - The company's projected financials for 2025 include: - Revenue: 162.73 billion CNY, a 7.2% increase year-on-year - Net profit: 2.70 billion CNY, a 7.7% increase year-on-year - Earnings per share: 0.54 CNY [3][12]. - The gross margin is expected to stabilize at 7.8% for 2025, with a net margin of 1.7% [3][12]. - The company’s total assets are projected to reach 103.29 billion CNY by 2025, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 66.1% [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Group [4][11] Core Views - JD Group's Q1 2025 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue of 3010.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.8%, and adjusted net profit of 127.6 billion yuan, up 43.4% year-on-year [8] - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 to 12832/13637/14266 billion yuan, reflecting an increase in product revenue growth [3][11] - The adjusted net profit forecasts for the same period are 433/489/518 billion yuan, with a decrease due to increased investment in the food delivery business [3][11] Financial Performance Summary - Q1 2025 revenue breakdown: - Product revenue reached 2423.1 billion yuan, up 16.2% year-on-year - Service revenue was 587.7 billion yuan, up 14.0% year-on-year [8] - JD Retail's Q1 2025 revenue was 2638.5 billion yuan, with an operating profit margin of 4.87% [8] - JD Logistics reported Q1 2025 revenue of 469.7 billion yuan, with an operating profit margin of 0.31% [8] - New business revenue in Q1 2025 was 57.5 billion yuan, with an operating loss of 13.3 billion yuan due to increased investment [8] Shareholder Returns - In Q1 2025, JD Group repurchased approximately 80.7 million shares for about 1.5 billion USD, representing 2.8% of the total shares outstanding as of the end of 2024 [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Group, with a target price of 203.81 HKD per share, based on a valuation of 10x PE for JD Retail in 2025 [4][11]. Core Views - JD Group's Q1 2025 performance exceeded expectations, with total revenue of 3010.8 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.8% [8]. - The adjusted net profit for Q1 2025 was 127.6 billion CNY, up 43.4% year-on-year, significantly surpassing market expectations [8]. - The report highlights the strong performance in product revenue, particularly in the electronics category, which benefited from government subsidies and increased market demand [8]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2025-2027, the revenue forecast has been adjusted to 12832/13637/14266 billion CNY, up from previous estimates due to accelerated product revenue growth [11]. - The adjusted net profit forecast for the same period is now 433/489/518 billion CNY, down from earlier estimates due to increased investment in the food delivery business [11]. - The report indicates that JD Retail achieved revenue of 2638.5 billion CNY in Q1 2025, with an operating profit margin of 4.87% [8][12]. Business Segment Analysis - JD Retail's Q1 2025 revenue was 2638.5 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 16.3%, driven by high-margin electronics sales [8]. - JD Logistics reported revenue of 469.7 billion CNY in Q1 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 11.5%, although profit margins were impacted by increased overseas expansion costs [8]. - New business segments, particularly food delivery, generated 57.5 billion CNY in revenue for Q1 2025, reflecting an 18.1% year-on-year increase, but also incurred an operating loss of 13.3 billion CNY due to higher investment [8]. Shareholder Returns - In Q1 2025, JD Group repurchased approximately 80.7 million shares, totaling around 1.5 billion USD, which represents 2.8% of the total shares outstanding as of the end of 2024 [8].