Group 1 - The report maintains an overweight rating on the computer industry, highlighting the rise of AI and domestic chip manufacturers as key investment themes [3][4] - AI applications and computing power are expected to see significant growth, with AI Agents poised for a breakthrough year in 2025, particularly in enterprise services and SaaS sectors [4][5] - The domestic AI server market is projected to grow significantly, with a forecasted market size exceeding $100 billion by 2029, driven by increasing demand for AI computing power [5][4] Group 2 - The report emphasizes the new opportunities in the domestic software industry, particularly in core software areas where the localization rate is currently low, indicating a potential peak replacement period [4][5] - The report notes that the increasing external uncertainties and government support are accelerating the development of domestic software, with significant room for growth in database and operating system sectors [5][4] - The report identifies that the domestic database market is expected to see accelerated penetration in various industries as the 2027 full replacement deadline approaches [5][4] Group 3 - The report discusses the competitive landscape of AI models, noting that the performance gap between domestic and international models is narrowing, with significant advancements in domestic open-source models [5][28] - The report highlights the emergence of AI Agents as a new paradigm in human-machine collaboration, with the potential to transform efficiency in various sectors [31][32] - The report outlines the parallel development of MCP and A2A protocols, which are expected to enhance the AI Agent ecosystem by facilitating interoperability and data sharing [38][39]

Group 1 - The SW Agricultural, Forestry, Animal Husbandry and Fishery industry rose by 5.02% from January to May 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by approximately 7.43 percentage points [13][14] - Most sub-sectors recorded positive returns, with only planting and fishery sectors showing negative returns of -1.58% and -0.07% respectively [14] - Approximately 70% of stocks in the industry achieved positive returns, with three stocks increasing over 100%, the highest being Yizhi Magic Yam at 209.66% [15] Group 2 - The overall PB of the SW Agricultural, Forestry, Animal Husbandry and Fishery industry increased from a low of 2.31 times at the beginning of the year to 2.68 times, with a current PB of approximately 2.66 times as of June 13, 2025, reflecting a 15% recovery from the low [20] - The pig breeding sector is expected to see a gradual recovery in supply, with the number of breeding sows reaching 40.38 million heads by the end of April 2025, slightly above the normal holding capacity [21][23] - The average price of pigs as of June 13, 2025, was 14.04 yuan/kg, down 10.8% from the beginning of the year and 26.1% year-on-year, with expectations for a price rebound in Q4 2025 [27] Group 3 - The total feed production in China is expected to rebound in 2025 after a decline in 2024, with a total production of 49.2 million tons in the first two months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 9.6% [54] - The average price of corn in China rose from approximately 2,122 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to over 2,400 yuan/ton, reflecting a 13.3% increase [56] - The pet health market is anticipated to grow rapidly, with significant expansion potential in the domestic market for pet food and supplies, benefiting quality domestic leaders [5][6]

Market Performance - The market experienced a rebound with the ChiNext leading the gains, closing at 2057.32, up by 0.66% [2][4] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3388.73, up by 0.35%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10163.55, up by 0.41% [2][4] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.22 trillion yuan, a decrease of 252.2 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [7] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included Media (up 2.70%), Communication (up 2.11%), and Computer (up 1.99%) [3][4] - The sectors with the weakest performance were Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery (down 0.76%) and Beauty and Personal Care (down 0.49%) [3][4] - Concept indices that performed well included Digital Currency (up 4.72%) and Ant Financial Concept (up 4.40%) [3][4] Economic Indicators - In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41,326 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.4% [6] - The industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 5.8% year-on-year in May, with a month-on-month increase of 0.61% [6] - The average sales price of new residential properties in first-tier cities decreased by 0.2% month-on-month in May [6] Future Outlook - The market is expected to maintain a range-bound trend in the short term, but overall is in a healthy operating condition [7] - Mid-term prospects remain positive due to economic resilience and supportive policy measures, indicating potential upward movement in the market [7] - Recommended sectors for attention include Finance, Non-ferrous Metals, Consumer Goods, and TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) [7]

Key Points - The report emphasizes an overweight rating for the consumer services sector, highlighting a new phase of travel transformation driven by high demand for themed tourism [1][5] - The consumer services index has shown stability with a slight decline of 3.43% as of June 13, 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 index [7][16] - The report suggests that the consumer services industry is experiencing a trend of increasing volume but decreasing prices, leading to greater pressure on corporate profitability and necessitating transformation [7][68] Sector Investment Strategy Consumer Services Sector Overview - The consumer services index has been relatively stable since the beginning of 2025, with a recent underperformance compared to the CSI 300 index [16][17] - The tourism and hospitality sectors have weakened due to declining per capita travel spending [7][16] Tourism and OTA - Domestic travel demand has rebounded significantly, with 1.794 billion domestic trips in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 26.43% [25] - The average travel expenditure per person in Q1 2025 was 1,003.34 yuan, indicating a decline from previous trends due to the rapid increase in travel frequency [25][26] - The report anticipates that the demand for self-driving and short-distance travel will continue to rise, with a focus on experiential tourism rather than traditional sightseeing [25][69] Duty-Free Sector - The duty-free market in Hainan has seen a decline in sales, but the rate of decline is narrowing, with sales of 13.33 billion yuan in the first four months of 2025, down 10.75% year-on-year [32][33] - The report notes that the average spending per customer in Hainan's duty-free shopping has rebounded, reaching 8,319 yuan, a 25.11% increase compared to the previous year [33] - The international travel market is recovering, benefiting airport duty-free shops, with significant growth in international passenger traffic at major airports [37][38] Hotel Sector - The hotel industry is facing increased competition due to rapid supply growth, with the number of hotel facilities reaching 570,100 by the end of 2024, a 6.87% decrease year-on-year [42][44] - The report highlights that leading hotel groups are maintaining strong performance despite price competition primarily affecting budget hotels [42][51] - The expansion of chain hotels in lower-tier markets is expected to continue, with major hotel groups increasing their market presence [54][55] Human Resources Services - The report indicates a slight increase in employment pressure, particularly among recent graduates, with policies aimed at promoting employment expected to be introduced [57][61] - The human resources service market is projected to grow, with a market size of 2.76 trillion yuan in 2023, expected to reach 5.03 trillion yuan by 2028 [65][66] - The integration of AI in human resources services is anticipated to enhance efficiency in recruitment and management processes [66][67] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on sectors with strong demand, such as scenic spots and OTA, as well as the hotel sector, which is expected to expand despite competitive pressures [68][69] - Specific stocks to watch include Long White Mountain (603099), Emei Mountain A (000888), and China Duty Free (601888) [69]

Core Insights - The semiconductor industry is expected to benefit from the ongoing AI-driven demand recovery and the deepening of domestic substitution, entering a recovery cycle since the second half of 2023, with positive revenue and net profit growth projected for 2024 and Q1 2025 [5][20][21] - The report maintains an overweight recommendation, emphasizing the importance of self-sufficiency and the AI wave as key investment themes for 2025 [1][5] Section Summaries 1. Semiconductor Sector Performance in 2024 & Q1 2025 - The semiconductor sector is projected to achieve a total revenue of CNY 602.23 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 21.10%, and a net profit of CNY 35.34 billion, up 12.82% [13] - For Q1 2025, the sector is expected to generate revenue of CNY 148.35 billion, a 15.95% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of CNY 9.28 billion, reflecting a significant growth of 35.13% [13][20] - Profitability metrics indicate a slight decline in gross and net profit margins for 2024, with a recovery anticipated in Q1 2025, where gross margin is expected to rise to 26.29% and net margin to 6.24% [16][20] 2. Subsector Performance - The semiconductor equipment sector is projected to achieve revenue of CNY 17.88 billion in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 33.38%, with a net profit of CNY 2.57 billion, up 24.12% [22] - The semiconductor materials sector is expected to see revenue of CNY 10.41 billion in Q1 2025, reflecting a 10.93% increase, and a net profit of CNY 0.67 billion, up 40.35% [26] - The digital chip design sector is projected to generate revenue of CNY 37.97 billion in Q1 2025, a 20.27% increase, with a net profit of CNY 3.26 billion, up 20.59% [29] 3. External Factors Driving Domestic Substitution - Increasing restrictions from overseas, particularly from the U.S., are accelerating the domestic substitution process in the semiconductor industry [47][48] - The report highlights that U.S. sanctions have intensified, impacting various segments of the semiconductor supply chain, including advanced AI chips and semiconductor manufacturing equipment [47][48]

Group 1 - The overall economic operation in 2024 was stable, with a 5.8% increase in industrial added value for large-scale enterprises, and a 8.9% growth in the non-ferrous metal industry [15][16] - The non-ferrous metal industry saw a profit increase of 24.5% in the smelting and rolling sector and 47.8% in the mining sector in the first four months of 2025 [15] - The non-ferrous metal industry index rose by 16.41% as of June 13, 2025, outperforming other sectors [16] Group 2 - Gold prices are expected to rise due to multiple factors including weakened dollar credit, increased central bank purchases, and ongoing geopolitical risks [20][34] - In 2024, global central banks purchased 1,045 tons of gold, accounting for 21% of total demand, with significant purchases from emerging market countries [23] - The demand for gold in investment increased by 25% in 2024, reaching 1,180 tons, with bar investment demand growing significantly [23][30] Group 3 - The strategic metals sector, including rare earths and tungsten, is crucial for national defense, economic development, and technological advancement, with China leading in production and reserves [50][62] - The supply of rare earths is expected to tighten due to export controls and limited quota increases, while demand from new energy vehicles and robotics continues to grow [50][67] - The tungsten market is projected to remain strong due to increasing demand from photovoltaic and nuclear fusion sectors, despite tightening supply [50][67] Group 4 - The aluminum industry faces rigid supply constraints with a production cap of 45 million tons, while demand is expected to grow in the new energy sector [4][18] - The demand for aluminum in the automotive and new energy sectors is on the rise, with significant increases in production for battery foils and structural components [4][18] - The copper market is experiencing a shift in demand dynamics, with traditional demand weakening while new energy applications drive growth [5][8]

Market Overview - The market experienced a pullback after an initial rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index closing down, while the ChiNext Index saw a slight increase. The Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated around the 3400 point mark, ultimately losing it again [1][3] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.25%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.60%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 0.22%. The STAR 50 Index and the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 Index dropped by 1.89% and 3.11% respectively [5][12] Economic Indicators - In May, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) slightly decreased, with a month-on-month decline of 0.2% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.1%. The Producer Price Index (PPI) also saw a month-on-month decline of 0.4% and a year-on-year drop of 3.3% [8][9] - Exports in May showed a year-on-year increase of 6.30%, although this was a 3 percentage point decline compared to April. Notably, exports to the US fell significantly, with a year-on-year decrease of 33.6%, marking the lowest level in five years [9][10] Monetary Policy - The central bank has been conducting net withdrawals in the open market, maintaining a generally loose monetary environment. From June 9 to 13, the central bank executed reverse repos totaling 858.2 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 72.7 billion yuan [11][12] - The central bank's focus will be on implementing appropriate monetary policies to promote reasonable price recovery, especially in light of the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [11] Sector Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as finance, non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, food and beverage, machinery, and technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT) for potential investment opportunities [13][12]

银行指数走势 投资要点： 银行业 超配（维持） 确定性稀缺时代对相对安全边际的追逐 银行业 2025 年中期投资策略 2025 年 6 月 13 日 推荐 分析师：吴晓彤 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340524070001 电话：0769-22119430 邮箱： wuxiaotong@dgzq.com.cn 银行指数 深 资料来源：IFinD，东莞证券研究所 本报告的风险等级为中风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 投 资 策 略 行 业 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 ◼ 复盘：板块 ROE 处于中上游水平，各子板块全面普涨。银行板块 ROE 受到宏观环境的影响有所下行，但是与其他 30 个行业横向比较，银 行板块超过 10%的 ROE 仍处于中上游水平。今年前五个月银行板块 贯穿始终，源于低利率环境下股息率的优越性、不确定环境中的确定 性以及政策托底。除此以外，险资等增量资金持续流入是重要行情支 撑要素之一。 ◼ 基本面展望：政策呵护，负债成本已进入改善通道。（1）量：全方位 扩大国内需求，信贷投放有望温和修复。 ...

S0340513040001 电话：0769-22177163 邮箱：hmy@dgzq.com.cn 证 券 研 究 资料来源：Wind，东莞证券研究所 房地产行业 房地产（标配，维持） 销售止跌，房价筑底，供需及竞争格局将持续优化 投 资 策 略 房地产行业 2025 年中期投资策略 2025 年 6 月 13 日 投资要点： 本报告的风险等级为中风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 推荐 分析师：何敏仪 SAC 执业证书编号： 房地产政策进一步精准发力。2025年房地产政策在延续去年宽松基 调同时，更多以"巩固稳定态势，细化落实"为主导。未来房地产 政策将继续是短期稳市场、提信心、防风险；中期调整供给、提振 需求，优化供需格局；长期构建新模式、促进高质量及可持续发展。 销售止跌回稳，房价仍处于筑底阶段。当前核心重点城市楼市成交 相对更活跃，其中改善性需求楼盘是支撑楼市回暖的一个重要因素。 高能级城市土地市场表现出首先回暖的迹象，房企也进一步聚焦于 核心城市拿地，带来在整体出让建面同比下降的同时，出让金额同 比明显回升 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the communication industry, expecting it to outperform the market index by more than 10% over the next six months [2][47]. Core Insights - The communication industry index has shown a cumulative increase of 4.42% over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.55 percentage points, ranking fifth among 31 primary industries [3][10]. - The report highlights that the industry is currently in a phase of technological iteration and policy benefits, with new growth drivers emerging from AI, quantum communication, and low-altitude economy sectors [3][43]. - The report suggests focusing on companies that align with the themes of "technology commercialization + policy catalysis + earnings certainty" for investment opportunities [3][43]. Summary by Sections Industry Market Review - The communication sector has seen a 5.64% increase in June, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.29 percentage points [10]. - The sector has recorded a year-to-date increase of 1.29%, surpassing the CSI 300 index by 2.37 percentage points [10]. Industry News and Company Announcements - China Mobile has announced a procurement for 400,000 5G main equipment stations, with five major equipment manufacturers winning the bid [15]. - IDC reports a 10.5% year-on-year growth in the global wearable device market for Q1 2025 [19]. - The successful launch of low-orbit satellites for internet connectivity marks a significant advancement in satellite communication [21]. Industry Data Updates - As of April 2025, the mobile phone user base in China reached approximately 1.803 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.75% [27]. - The internet broadband access user base reached about 680 million, with a year-on-year growth of 5.05% [30]. - The total number of 5G base stations in China reached 4.439 million by April 2025, with a net increase of 188,000 from the previous year [39]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as China Telecom (601728.SH), FiberHome (600498.SH), and Yangtze Optical Fibre (601869.SH) for potential investment opportunities [43][44].