Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Volume Timing Indicator - **Model Construction Idea**: The model uses volume indicators to determine market timing signals, identifying bullish or bearish trends based on trading volume dynamics[12][21] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the volume timing signal for major indices 2. Assign "bullish" or "bearish" views based on the volume trend 3. As of June 27, 2025, all indices except the North Exchange 50 showed bullish signals[21][22] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively captures market sentiment shifts based on volume trends[21] 2. Model Name: Momentum Sentiment Indicator - **Model Construction Idea**: This model evaluates market sentiment by analyzing the proportion of stocks with positive returns in the past N days, aiming to identify market optimism or overheating[23] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the proportion of stocks in the CSI 300 index with positive returns over the past N days $ \text{Proportion} = \frac{\text{Number of stocks with positive returns in N days}}{\text{Total number of stocks in CSI 300}} $ 2. Smooth the indicator using two moving averages with windows N1 and N2 (N1 > N2) 3. Generate signals: - Bullish when the short-term average (fast line) exceeds the long-term average (slow line) - Neutral when the fast line is below the slow line 4. Parameters: N = 230, N1 = 50, N2 = 35[26][27] - **Model Evaluation**: The model is effective in capturing upward opportunities but may miss gains during sustained market exuberance and struggles to predict downturns[23][26] 3. Model Name: Moving Average Sentiment Indicator - **Model Construction Idea**: This model uses an eight-moving-average system to assess market trends and sentiment by comparing the closing price of the CSI 300 index with its moving averages[29] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Calculate eight moving averages for the CSI 300 index: 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, and 233 days 2. Count the number of moving averages below the current closing price 3. Assign sentiment values: - Positive sentiment if more than five moving averages are below the closing price - Neutral or negative sentiment otherwise 4. Generate signals based on sentiment values[29] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a clear relationship between sentiment states and index trends, making it a useful tool for market timing[29] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Volume Timing Indicator - **Signal**: Bullish for all indices except North Exchange 50, which remains bearish as of June 27, 2025[21][22] 2. Momentum Sentiment Indicator - **Signal**: Fast line rising, slow line declining, maintaining a bullish view for the CSI 300 index[27] 3. Moving Average Sentiment Indicator - **Signal**: CSI 300 index is in a positive sentiment zone as of June 27, 2025[29] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Cross-Sectional Volatility - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the dispersion of stock returns within an index to assess the alpha environment[34] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the cross-sectional volatility of index constituents weekly 2. Compare the current week's volatility with historical averages to determine the alpha environment[34][38] - **Factor Evaluation**: - Short-term alpha environment improved for CSI 300 and CSI 500 but weakened for CSI 1000 in the past week - Over the past quarter, CSI 300 showed a strong alpha environment, while CSI 500 and CSI 1000 were weaker[34][38] 2. Factor Name: Time-Series Volatility - **Factor Construction Idea**: Tracks the volatility of index constituents over time to evaluate market stability and alpha potential[38] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the time-series volatility of index constituents weekly 2. Compare the current week's volatility with historical averages to assess the alpha environment[38][41] - **Factor Evaluation**: - Short-term alpha environment improved for all indices in the past week - Over the past quarter, CSI 300 and CSI 500 showed strong alpha environments, while CSI 1000 was moderate[38][41] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Cross-Sectional Volatility - **CSI 300**: - Last week: Increased, indicating improved short-term alpha environment - Quarterly average: 1.65%, in the upper range of the past six months[34][38] - **CSI 500**: - Last week: Increased, indicating improved short-term alpha environment - Quarterly average: 1.88%, in the lower range of the past six months[34][38] - **CSI 1000**: - Last week: Decreased, indicating a weaker short-term alpha environment - Quarterly average: 2.23%, in the middle range of the past six months[34][38] 2. Time-Series Volatility - **CSI 300**: - Last week: Increased, indicating improved short-term alpha environment - Quarterly average: 0.52%, in the upper range of the past six months[38][41] - **CSI 500**: - Last week: Increased, indicating improved short-term alpha environment - Quarterly average: 0.44%, in the upper range of the past six months[38][41] - **CSI 1000**: - Last week: Increased, indicating improved short-term alpha environment - Quarterly average: 0.27%, in the middle range of the past six months[38][41]

2025 年 6 月 28 日 策略研究 2025 年上半年市场回顾：蓄势跃升 ——策略周专题（2025 年 6 月第 4 期） 要点 本周 A 股收涨 本周 A 股收涨。本周 A 股主要宽基指数均收涨，创业板指、中证 500 等指数涨幅 靠前，上证 50、上证指数涨幅靠后。从市场风格来看，本周主要风格指数均收涨， 小盘成长、中盘成长涨幅居前，而大盘价值、大盘成长涨幅靠后。分行业来看，申 万一级行业大多收涨，计算机、国防军工等行业涨幅靠前，石油石化、食品饮料等 行业跌幅靠前。 2025 年上半年市场回顾：蓄势跃升 市场上半年呈"N 型"走势，上证指数小幅收涨。从上半年的市场表现来看，受海 内外多重因素交织影响，A 股上半年走势较为震荡，年初至 6 月 27 日，上证指数 上涨 2.2%。分阶段来看，市场上半年的走势可以分为"震荡上行——震荡调整— —震荡上行"三个阶段，整体呈"N 型"走势。年初至 3 月中旬，AI 产业加速发展 与政策暖风共振，A 股市场震荡上行；3 月下旬至 4 月上旬，受特朗普"对等关税" 影响，A 股市场震荡调整；4 月中旬至年中，国内政策积极发力，叠加中美贸易摩 擦阶段性缓和，市场震 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From June 23 to June 27, 2025, the secondary - market prices of China's listed public REITs showed a downward trend overall, with a weighted REITs index return rate of - 1.22%. Compared with other mainstream asset classes, REITs performed averagely [1][11]. - Two new REITs were listed this week, and the project status of two first - issue REITs was updated [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Secondary Market 3.1.1 Price Trends - **At the large - asset level**: The secondary - market prices of China's listed public REITs declined. The returns of China's public REITs were - 1.22%, lower than those of convertible bonds, US stocks, and A - shares, but higher than those of gold and crude oil [11]. - **At the underlying - asset level**: Both property - right and franchise - right REITs' prices fell, with property - right REITs having a smaller decline. Among different underlying - asset types, transportation infrastructure REITs had the largest decline, while the top three in terms of return rate were affordable housing, energy, and ecological environmental protection REITs [16][18]. - **At the single - REIT level**: After excluding the two newly listed REITs this week, 6 REITs rose and 60 REITs fell. The top three in terms of increase were AVIC Jingneng Photovoltaic REIT, China Resources Commercial REIT, and CICC Shandong Expressway REIT; the top three in terms of decline were China Merchants Nanjing Expressway REIT, Hua'an Waigaoqiao REIT, and Ping An Ningbo Expressway REIT [22]. 3.1.2 Trading Volume and Turnover Rate - **At the underlying - asset level**: The total trading volume of public REITs this week was 2.9 billion yuan, and municipal - facility REITs had the highest average daily turnover rate. The top three in terms of trading volume were transportation infrastructure, affordable housing, and industrial - park infrastructure REITs; the top three in terms of average daily turnover rate were municipal - facility, ecological environmental protection, and industrial - park infrastructure REITs [26]. - **At the single - REIT level**: The trading volume and turnover rate of single REITs continued to show differentiation. The top three in terms of trading volume were Guotai Junan Dongjiu New Economy REIT, CICC Puluosi REIT, and China Merchants China Expressway REIT; the top three in terms of trading amount were China Merchants China Expressway REIT, China Resources Commercial REIT, and Guotai Junan Dongjiu New Economy REIT; the top three in terms of turnover rate were Guotai Junan Jinan Energy Heating REIT, Huatai Suzhou Hengtai Rental Housing REIT, and China Resources Commercial REIT [27]. 3.1.3 Main - Force Net Inflow and Block - Trade Situation - **Main - force net inflow situation**: The total main - force net inflow this week was 81.54 million yuan, indicating a decline in market trading enthusiasm. The top three underlying - asset types in terms of main - force net inflow were consumer infrastructure, industrial - park infrastructure, and energy infrastructure REITs. The top three single REITs in terms of main - force net inflow were China Resources Commercial REIT, Penghua Shenzhen Energy REIT, and China Merchants Heda High - tech REIT [31]. - **Block - trade situation**: The total block - trade amount this week reached 789.97 million yuan, a significant increase compared with last week. Tuesday had the highest single - day block - trade amount. The top three single REITs in terms of block - trade amount were Guotai Junan Urban Investment Kuanting Affordable Housing REIT, CITIC Construction Investment National Energy Investment New Energy REIT, and China Resources Commercial REIT [32]. 3.2 Primary Market 3.2.1 Listed Projects - As of June 27, 2025, there were 68 public REITs in China, with a total issuance scale of 177.061 billion yuan. Transportation infrastructure REITs had the largest issuance scale, followed by industrial - park infrastructure REITs. Two new REITs were listed this week: CICC Yizhuang Industrial Park REIT on June 26 and CICC China Green Development Commercial Asset REIT on June 27 [36]. 3.2.2 Projects to be Listed - There were 28 REITs in the pipeline, including 16 first - issue REITs and 12 REITs for expansion. The project status of "Huaxia Anbo Warehouse Logistics Closed - end Infrastructure Securities Investment Fund" was updated to "declared", and that of "Huaxia Zhonghai Commercial Asset Closed - end Infrastructure Securities Investment Fund" was updated to "accepted" [39].

2025 年 6 月 28 日 总量研究 周内涨幅创年内至今最高 ——可转债周报（2025 年 6 月 23 日至 2025 年 6 月 27 日） 要点 1、市场行情 本周（2025 年 6 月 23 日至 2025 年 6 月 27 日，共 5 个交易日）转债市场显著 上涨，全周中证转债指数涨跌幅为+2.1%（上一交易周为-0.2%），周内涨幅创 年内最高；本周中证全指变动为+3.3%。2025 年开年以来，中证转债涨跌幅为 +6.6%，中证全指数涨跌幅为+3.4%，转债市场表现好于权益市场。 分评级来看，高评级券（评级为 AA+及以上）、中评级券（评级为 AA）、低评 级券（评级为 AA-及以下）本周涨跌幅分别为+1.75%、+2.47%、+2.78%，低 评级券本周涨幅最多。分转债规模看，大规模转债（债券余额大于 50 亿元）、 中规模转债（余额在 5 至 50 亿元之间）、小规模转债（余额小于 5 亿元）本周 涨跌幅分别为+1.95%、+2.23%和+3.05%，小规模转债涨幅最多。分平价来看， 超高平价券（转股价值大于 130 元）、高平价券（转股价值在 110 至 130 元之 间）、中平价券（ ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: PB-ROE-50 - **Model Construction Idea**: The PB-ROE-50 model selects stocks based on a combination of Price-to-Book (PB) ratio and Return on Equity (ROE), aiming to capture value and profitability factors[25][26]. - **Model Construction Process**: The model ranks stocks within the China Securities 800 Index (CSI 800) and the broader market based on PB and ROE metrics. Stocks with the best combined scores are selected to form a portfolio of 50 stocks. The portfolio is rebalanced periodically to maintain its factor exposure[25][26]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrates the ability to generate excess returns over benchmarks, particularly in the CSI 800 and broader market stock pools[25][26]. 2. Model Name: Bulk Transaction Portfolio - **Model Construction Idea**: This model leverages the information embedded in bulk transactions, focusing on stocks with high transaction amounts and low volatility[31]. - **Model Construction Process**: Stocks are selected based on two key metrics: "bulk transaction amount ratio" (higher is better) and "6-day transaction amount volatility" (lower is better). The portfolio is rebalanced monthly to align with these criteria[31]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively captures excess returns by exploiting the "high transaction, low volatility" principle[31]. 3. Model Name: Directed Issuance Portfolio - **Model Construction Idea**: This model identifies investment opportunities in stocks involved in directed issuance events, considering factors like market capitalization and rebalancing cycles[36]. - **Model Construction Process**: Stocks are selected based on their involvement in directed issuance events, with adjustments for market capitalization and portfolio constraints. The portfolio is rebalanced periodically to reflect updated event data[36]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrates consistent excess returns, indicating the effectiveness of event-driven strategies in the directed issuance space[36]. --- Model Backtesting Results 1. PB-ROE-50 Model - **CSI 500**: Weekly excess return -1.38%, YTD excess return 2.37%, weekly absolute return 2.54%, YTD absolute return 4.84%[26]. - **CSI 800**: Weekly excess return 0.50%, YTD excess return 5.53%, weekly absolute return 2.99%, YTD absolute return 5.92%[26]. - **Broad Market**: Weekly excess return 0.09%, YTD excess return 6.83%, weekly absolute return 3.43%, YTD absolute return 10.50%[26]. 2. Bulk Transaction Portfolio - **Weekly Excess Return**: 1.16% - **YTD Excess Return**: 24.68% - **Weekly Absolute Return**: 4.53% - **YTD Absolute Return**: 28.95%[32]. 3. Directed Issuance Portfolio - **Weekly Excess Return**: 1.05% - **YTD Excess Return**: 9.32% - **Weekly Absolute Return**: 4.42% - **YTD Absolute Return**: 13.07%[37]. --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Beta Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures a stock's sensitivity to market movements, capturing systematic risk[20]. - **Factor Construction Process**: Calculated as the covariance of a stock's returns with market returns, divided by the variance of market returns. $ \beta = \frac{\text{Cov}(R_i, R_m)}{\text{Var}(R_m)} $ Where \( R_i \) is the stock return and \( R_m \) is the market return[20]. - **Factor Evaluation**: Demonstrates positive returns in the current week, indicating favorable market conditions for high-beta stocks[20]. 2. Factor Name: Liquidity Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Captures the ease of trading a stock, with higher liquidity stocks expected to perform better in certain market conditions[20]. - **Factor Construction Process**: Measured using metrics like average daily trading volume or bid-ask spread over a specific period[20]. - **Factor Evaluation**: Generated positive returns this week, reflecting a preference for liquid stocks in the market[20]. 3. Factor Name: Residual Volatility Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the idiosyncratic risk of a stock, with lower residual volatility stocks often preferred in risk-averse environments[20]. - **Factor Construction Process**: Calculated as the standard deviation of the residuals from a stock's regression on market returns[20]. - **Factor Evaluation**: Negative returns this week, indicating underperformance of low-volatility stocks[20]. --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Beta Factor - Weekly return: 1.06%[20]. 2. Liquidity Factor - Weekly return: 0.37%[20]. 3. Residual Volatility Factor - Weekly return: -0.31%[20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [4][6]. Core Insights - The company's core business includes the development, manufacturing, and sales of home respiratory devices and cochlear implant components, with expectations for gradual performance improvement in 2025 [2]. - The company has successfully completed the first two phases of its production base in Malaysia, with the third phase expected to be operational by the end of 2025, enhancing its production capacity [3]. - A stock incentive plan has been introduced, reflecting the company's confidence in long-term growth, with performance targets set for 2025-2027 [4]. Summary by Sections Business Performance - The home respiratory device component business is expected to return to normal growth rates in 2024, supported by the Malaysian base potentially mitigating tariff risks [2]. - The revenue from cochlear implant components is showing steady growth, and new product components are experiencing rapid revenue increases [2]. Financial Forecasts - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are 444 million and 539 million yuan, respectively, reflecting a downward revision of 11.6% and 16.0% from previous estimates [4]. - The report projects a net profit of 656 million yuan for 2027, indicating growth potential [4]. Valuation Metrics - The company is positioned as a leader in precision medical device components, with a projected revenue growth rate of 21.13% for 2025 and 20.22% for 2026 [5]. - The estimated P/E ratio for 2025 is 22, with a projected P/B ratio of 2.5, indicating a favorable valuation relative to its growth prospects [5][12].

Profit Trends - In May 2025, industrial enterprises' profit growth rate fell to -9.1%, down from +3.0% in April 2025, marking a significant decline[4] - Cumulative profit growth for January to May 2025 was -1.1%, compared to +1.4% for January to April 2025[2] - Cumulative revenue growth for the same period was +2.7%, down from +3.2% in the previous four months[2] Contributing Factors - The decline in profit growth is attributed to weakening export support, increased year-on-year declines in industrial product prices, and lower profit margins[3] - The profit margin for May 2025 decreased to 5.3%, down from 5.4% in April 2025, due to rising operating costs and high base effects from the previous year[4] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw an expanded year-on-year decline from -2.7% to -3.3% in May 2025, influenced by falling international oil prices and weak domestic demand[5] Sector Performance - By sector, mining profits fell by 29.0%, while manufacturing and electricity, gas, and water supply sectors saw growth rates of 5.4% and 3.7%, respectively, for January to May 2025[14] - The manufacturing sector's profit margin increased to 4.25%, while the mining sector's margin decreased to 16.92%[14] Market Dynamics - Private enterprises maintained a positive profit growth rate of +3.4% for January to May 2025, while state-owned enterprises experienced a decline of -7.4%[26] - Industrial enterprises are currently in a phase of active destocking, with inventory growth at 3.5%, down from 4.0% in the previous month[28] Outlook and Risks - Future profit recovery for industrial enterprises remains uncertain due to potential overseas demand fluctuations, ongoing negative price trends, and insufficient effective demand[33] - Risks include policy implementation falling short of expectations and unexpected changes in the international political and economic landscape[34]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected investment return exceeding the market benchmark by more than 15% over the next 6-12 months [12]. Core Insights - The company has adjusted its customer success service product offerings and pricing, which is expected to positively impact gross margins by differentiating between standard and premium services [1]. - The launch of the upgraded Agent platform 2.0 and five intelligent agents aims to enhance integration with core business systems and improve operational efficiency across various business functions [2]. - Revenue from large enterprise clients for the year 2024 is projected to reach 1.304 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 32.9%, while the contract signing amount is expected to be approximately 2.1 billion RMB, reflecting a 52% growth [3]. - The company is focusing on subscription and AI-driven strategies, with expectations for continued growth in large enterprise orders and the flagship product becoming a new growth point [3]. Summary by Sections Business Update - The company has restructured its service offerings, introducing a new pricing model that separates standard and advanced services, which is anticipated to enhance revenue from large enterprise clients while reducing implementation costs for standard clients [1]. Product Development - The upgraded Agent platform 2.0 includes five intelligent agents designed to automate various business processes, significantly improving efficiency and decision-making capabilities [2]. Financial Performance - For 2024, the company expects revenue from large enterprises to be 1.304 billion RMB, with a 32.9% year-on-year growth, while revenue from medium-sized clients is projected at 2.153 billion RMB, a 10.3% increase [3]. - The company has slightly revised its revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 downwards to 7.0 billion RMB and 7.87 billion RMB respectively, due to macroeconomic pressures on medium and small businesses [3]. Profitability Forecast - The net profit forecast for 2025 has been adjusted to 133 million RMB, with subsequent years showing a gradual increase, reflecting the company's focus on subscription and AI-driven growth strategies [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The recent stock incentive plan reflects the company's confidence in long-term development, with a target revenue growth rate of 20.00%/44.00%/72.80% for 2025-2027 [2] - The company continues to invest heavily in R&D, with an expected investment of 2.261 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for 21.95% of revenue [3] - The medical imaging equipment bidding market is expected to recover, which will significantly improve the company's performance [3] Summary by Sections Investment Rating - The company is rated as "Buy" based on its strong market position and growth potential [5] Stock Incentive Plan - The company announced a stock incentive plan for 1,368 employees, granting 5 million shares at 95 yuan per share, representing 0.61% of the total share capital [1] - The assessment period for the stock incentive is set for 2025-2027, with specific revenue growth targets and trigger values for each year [2] R&D and Product Development - The company has launched several innovative products, including the uLinacHalosTx precision radiotherapy system and the uMR Max 3.0T MRI [3] - The R&D investment is projected to continue to support the company's competitive edge in the medical imaging sector [3] Financial Forecasts - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.966 billion yuan, 2.281 billion yuan, and 2.817 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3] - Revenue is expected to grow from 11.863 billion yuan in 2025 to 17.390 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding growth rates of 15.17%, 20.43%, and 21.73% [4]

2025 年 6 月 27 日 行业研究 意在重构全球支付体系，稳定币或将成为人民币国际化的链上支点 ——稳定币专题报告之一 要点 稳定币：区块链时代的"数字现金"。稳定币是一种通过锚定法币、商品或其他 资产，实现价格稳定的加密货币。其应用场景包括加密货币交易、跨境支付、 RWA 交易等。如在跨境支付场景中，稳定币可以实现秒级到账并大幅降低成本。 美元稳定币占市场主导地位。截至 2025 年 6 月 26 日，稳定币总市值在 2526 亿美元左右，USDT（1579 亿美元市值）及 USDC（614 亿美元市值）合计占到 稳定币总市值的 87%。 法币抵押型稳定币的盈利模式主要为储备资产管理收益。据 Tether 及 Circle 储 备资产报告披露，USDT 的储备资产中 80%投向现金或类现金资产（大部分为 美债），20%投向比特币、黄金等。而 Circle 的储备资产中约 10%为现金，约 90%为短期美债或美债回购协议。2024 年，Tether 和 Cirle 分别实现净利润 130 亿美元及 1.56 亿美元。 里程碑式法案相继通过，稳定币进入合规发展快车道。2025 年 2 月，美国 《GENI ...