Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the basic chemical industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The report is optimistic about the domestic breakthroughs in COC materials, packaging materials, and semiconductor materials, emphasizing the importance of "domestic substitution" in achieving supply chain security and reducing production costs for end products [1][22] Summary by Sections Semiconductor Materials - The global semiconductor sales are projected to reach approximately $630.5 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of about 19.7%, with the Asia-Pacific region expected to see a growth of 17.5% [4][38] - The steady growth in the semiconductor market is anticipated to drive an increase in demand for semiconductor materials, including photoresists and electronic specialty gases [4][43] COC/COP Materials - COC/COP, a high-end optical material, has shown significant potential, with Akolai's thousand-ton production line entering trial production in Q3 2024 [2][29] - COC/COP materials are characterized by high thermal deformation temperature, high transparency, low birefringence, and low dielectric loss, making them ideal for optical components [25][28] - The domestic production of COC/COP is gaining momentum, with several companies, including Akolai, making strides in industrialization [28][29] PSPI Materials - PSPI combines the functions of photoresist and dielectric insulation layer, showing promise in integrated circuits and OLED applications [3][35] - Domestic companies like Aolide and Dinglong have achieved breakthroughs in the localization of PSPI, indicating a potential increase in domestic supply [3][36] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-value new materials, particularly semiconductor materials, OLED supply chains, and wind power materials [5] - It also highlights the importance of monitoring the development of new capacities in the semiconductor materials sector [43]

Investment Rating - The mechanical industry is rated as "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights the marginal decline in domestic demand for engineering machinery, while also emphasizing the advancements in humanoid robotics and related technologies [3][4][5] - The report suggests that 2025 will be a breakthrough year for humanoid robots, with mass production expected to drive the downstream supply chain [5] - The agricultural machinery market shows signs of improvement, with tractor exports increasing significantly [8] - The engineering machinery sector is experiencing short-term pressure on domestic sales, but export volumes are maintaining a growth trend [12] Summary by Relevant Sections Humanoid Robots - A joint research team has developed the world's first humanoid robot with high-resolution tactile perception and complete motion capabilities [3] - Tesla's CEO Elon Musk confirmed the integration of AI voice assistant Grok into the Optimus V3 humanoid robot [3] - Significant investments in humanoid robotics are being made, with companies like Galaxy General completing a financing round of 1.1 billion RMB [3][4] Machine Tools & Cutters - Japan's machine tool orders in May 2025 amounted to 128.716 billion JPY, with a year-on-year increase of 3.4% [6] - The report suggests that the machine tools and cutters sector is influenced by economic expectations, with potential improvements expected as policies are implemented [6] Agricultural Machinery - The agricultural machinery market sentiment index was reported at 43.5% in May 2025, indicating a slight year-on-year improvement [7] - Tractor exports from China increased by 12.3% in quantity and 31.1% in value during the first five months of 2025 [8] Engineering Machinery - In May 2025, excavator sales (including exports) reached 18,202 units, a year-on-year increase of 2.1% [12] - Domestic sales of excavators decreased by 1.5%, while export sales increased by 5.4% [12] - The report anticipates a recovery in demand for engineering machinery as infrastructure investment is expected to remain high [12] Forklifts - Forklift sales in May 2025 reached 123,472 units, a year-on-year increase of 11.8% [13] - The average working hours for forklifts increased by 22.5% month-on-month, indicating improved demand [13] Rail Transit Equipment - The report notes significant increases in the procurement of high-speed train maintenance projects by the National Railway Group [14] - The rail transit equipment sector is expected to benefit from increased railway investment and passenger flow recovery [14] Semiconductor Equipment - The report discusses the acceleration of domestic substitution for key semiconductor equipment due to increased tariffs [15][16] - The establishment of the third phase of the big fund, with a registered capital of 344 billion RMB, is expected to significantly boost the domestic semiconductor industry [16] New Energy Equipment - As of May 2025, the cumulative installed capacity of power generation in China reached 3.61 billion kW, a year-on-year increase of 18.8% [17] - The report highlights the rapid growth of photovoltaic power generation capacity, with a 57% year-on-year increase in new installations [17] Low-altitude Economy and EVTOL - Policies supporting the development of the low-altitude economy and EVTOL (Electric Vertical Takeoff and Landing) aircraft have been introduced in various regions [18][19] - The report emphasizes the potential for the low-altitude economy to drive new industries and consumer spending [19]

Macro Analysis - Industrial enterprises' profit growth turned negative in May due to factors such as weakened export support, expanded year-on-year decline in industrial product prices, and lower profit margins [2] - The previously high-profit growth in the midstream equipment manufacturing sector also turned negative [2] - Future recovery of industrial enterprise profits remains uncertain due to overseas demand fluctuations, low industrial product prices, and insufficient effective demand [2] Market Strategy - The most severe external risk disturbances may have passed, but vigilance towards potential policy changes from Trump is still necessary [3] - With a 90-day pause on "reciprocal tariffs" between China and the US, exports are expected to maintain high growth in the short term, with consumption being a key driver of economic recovery [3] - The market is anticipated to remain volatile in the short term, focusing on domestic consumption, domestic substitution, and low allocation of funds [3] Bond Market - The convertible bond market saw significant gains, with the index rising by 2.1% for the week, marking the highest increase of the year [4] - The overall performance of the convertible bond market has outperformed the equity market since the beginning of 2025, with a year-to-date increase of 6.6% [4] - Future market performance will be influenced by fundamentals and macro policies, particularly in sectors aimed at boosting domestic demand [4] Quantitative Analysis - The market displayed a small-cap style, with significant excess returns from block trading combinations [6] - The Beta factor and liquidity factor achieved positive returns of 1.06% and 0.37%, respectively, while the market capitalization factor and residual volatility factor recorded negative returns [6] - The block trading combination outperformed the overall index by 1.16% [6] Industry Research Computer Industry - The report emphasizes the potential of stablecoins in the internationalization of the RMB, suggesting investment opportunities in companies like Newland, Lakala, and Newland [10] - Ant Group's competitive advantages in compliance, technology, and market penetration are highlighted, recommending attention to companies like Hengsheng Electronics and Longxin Group [10] Internet Media - The gaming industry maintains a high level of prosperity, with strong consumer sentiment and a robust pipeline of new products for the summer [11] - Recommendations include Tencent, NetEase, and Perfect World, with a focus on innovative gameplay in various segments [11] Renewable Energy - The wind power sector is expected to see continuous improvement in profitability due to stable prices and cost reductions [12] - The report also highlights the importance of upcoming policies in the photovoltaic sector and suggests monitoring developments in solid-state batteries and energy storage [12] Non-Ferrous Metals - LME copper inventories have dropped to a 22-month low, with domestic air conditioning production expected to decline by 13% year-on-year [13] - The report anticipates strong copper prices in the short term, recommending investments in companies like Zijin Mining and Western Mining [13] Real Estate - The real estate sector shows weak beta but highlights structural alpha opportunities in core cities [17] - Sales in major cities increased by 14.4% from January to May 2025, with a recommendation to focus on companies like China Resources Land and China Jinmao [17] Agriculture - The pig farming sector is expected to recover as inventory levels decrease, with a long-term view of profitability growth [16] - Recommended companies include Juxing Agriculture and Muyuan Foods, as the industry moves towards a long-term upward cycle [16]

2025 年 6 月 29 日 行业研究 焦煤矿山库存拐点已现，煤价开启季节性上涨 ——煤炭开采行业周报（2025.6.23~2025.6.29） 要点 焦煤矿山库存拐点已现，煤价开启季节性上涨。（1）5 月以来，Mysteel 统计 的 523 家炼焦煤矿山原煤、精煤库存均持续上升，本周 523 家炼焦煤矿山原煤 库存 683.5 万吨，环比-17.9 万吨，精煤库存 463.1 万吨，环比-36.1 万吨，5 月以来首次出现环比下降；（2）本周（6.23-6.29）秦皇岛港口动力煤平仓价 （5500 大卡周度平均值）为 616 元/吨，环比+7 元/吨，开启季节性上涨； （3）截至 6 月 27 日，焦煤期货收盘价为 847.5 元/吨，周环比+6.6%。 本周港口煤价小幅反弹，海外油、气价格回落。（1）本周（6.23-6.29）秦皇 岛港口动力煤平仓价（5500 大卡周度平均值）为 616 元/吨，环比+7 元/吨 （+1.15%）；（2）陕西榆林动力混煤坑口价格（5800 大卡）周度平均值为 474 元/吨，环比+4 元/吨（+0.85%）；（3）澳大利亚纽卡斯尔港动力煤 FOB 价格 （5500 大 ...

2025 年 6 月 29 日 截至 2025 年 6 月 27 日，房地产服务(申万)市净率 PB(LF)为 1.60 倍，历史分位 数 79.83%(2024-至今)。恒生物业服务及管理市盈净率 PB(LF)为 0.46 倍，历史 分位数 91.79%(2024 年 9 月 13 日—至今)。2025 年 6 月 1 日至 6 月 27 日，房 地产服务(申万)上涨 0.5%，跑输沪深 300 指数 1.6 个百分点，跑赢房地产(申万) 指数 0.1 个百分点；恒生物业服务及管理指数上涨 4.9%，跑赢恒生指数 0.6 个 百分点，跑输恒生地产建筑业指数 1.4 个百分点；A 股物业服务重点公司涨跌幅 前三为特发服务（+2.65%）、南都物业（+1.74%）、宁波富达（+1.32%）；H 股物业服务重点公司涨跌幅前三为保利物业（+14.48%）、远洋服务（+13.40%）、 绿城服务（+12.23%）。 三、当前地产行业贝塔偏弱，聚焦结构性阿尔法机遇。 行业研究 地产行业贝塔偏弱，聚焦结构性阿尔法机遇 ——光大地产板块及重点公司跟踪报告 要点 一、地产开发板块估值及重点公司近期市场表现。 截至 2025 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the petrochemical industry [6] Core Views - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have eased, leading to a decline in oil prices, with Brent and WTI crude oil prices reported at $66.34 and $65.07 per barrel respectively, down 12.5% and 12.1% from the previous week [1] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Iran's nuclear program and conflicts involving Israel and Palestine, continue to pose significant risks to oil prices [2] - OPEC+ is expected to continue its large-scale production increase plans, with a focus on monitoring the execution of these plans [3] - Potential mergers and acquisitions in the energy sector, particularly the discussions between Shell and BP, could accelerate consolidation in the overseas energy market [4] - The long-term outlook for oil supply and demand remains positive, with a focus on major Chinese oil companies and the oil service sector, as well as chemical product demand recovery driven by macroeconomic factors [5] Summary by Sections Geopolitical Risks - The easing of Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions has resulted in a significant drop in oil prices, returning to levels prior to the Israel-Iran conflict [1] - Despite the ceasefire, the underlying issues related to Iran's nuclear program remain unresolved, indicating ongoing geopolitical risks [2] OPEC+ Production Plans - OPEC+ is preparing to consider further production increases in its upcoming meeting, with a notable increase of 411,000 barrels per day agreed upon by eight member countries [3] Mergers and Acquisitions - Shell is reportedly in preliminary talks to acquire BP, which could lead to the largest energy sector merger since the Exxon-Mobil deal in 1999 [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a continued positive outlook for major Chinese oil companies and oil service firms, as well as for the petrochemical sector driven by recovering demand [5]

近段时间市场中对银行负债压力的话题讨论较多。不少投资者认为，在 5 月 20 日新一轮存款降息后，大量存款流向银行理财等资管产品，因此明显加大了银行 的负债压力。 我们认为，在讨论的初始应厘清负债压力的概念：首先，所谓的负债压力，既取 决于负债缺口的规模，也取决于缺口补充的难度。其次，对负债缺口的衡量有两 个不同的尺度，一个是相对于监管指标的，另一个是相对于银行自身诉求的。 2025 年 6 月 29 日 总量研究 由银行负债压力想到的 ——2025 年 6 月 29 日利率债观察 要点 1、由银行负债压力想到的 不难看出，银行以此方式所获得的存款规模时点数的提升并无法提高其支持实体 经济的质效，而且还会降低自身乃至于行业的盈利能力。我们认为，这是典型的 内卷式竞争。 规模情结所导致的内卷在资产端也有体现，其结果是形成了贷款利率的不合理下 行。譬如，今年一季度曾出现过利率 2.5%左右的消费贷产品。综合存、贷款两 端来看，规模情结压低了银行业的净息差和利润增速，影响了金融支持实体经济 的可持续性，亦制约了货币政策的空间。 我们注意到，近些年货币当局充分发挥利率自律机制作用，规范存贷款市场竞争 秩序，取得了很好 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Volume Timing Indicator - **Model Construction Idea**: The model uses volume indicators to determine market timing signals, identifying bullish or bearish trends based on trading volume dynamics[12][21] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the volume timing signal for major indices 2. Assign "bullish" or "bearish" views based on the volume trend 3. As of June 27, 2025, all indices except the North Exchange 50 showed bullish signals[21][22] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively captures market sentiment shifts based on volume trends[21] 2. Model Name: Momentum Sentiment Indicator - **Model Construction Idea**: This model evaluates market sentiment by analyzing the proportion of stocks with positive returns in the past N days, aiming to identify market optimism or overheating[23] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the proportion of stocks in the CSI 300 index with positive returns over the past N days $ \text{Proportion} = \frac{\text{Number of stocks with positive returns in N days}}{\text{Total number of stocks in CSI 300}} $ 2. Smooth the indicator using two moving averages with windows N1 and N2 (N1 > N2) 3. Generate signals: - Bullish when the short-term average (fast line) exceeds the long-term average (slow line) - Neutral when the fast line is below the slow line 4. Parameters: N = 230, N1 = 50, N2 = 35[26][27] - **Model Evaluation**: The model is effective in capturing upward opportunities but may miss gains during sustained market exuberance and struggles to predict downturns[23][26] 3. Model Name: Moving Average Sentiment Indicator - **Model Construction Idea**: This model uses an eight-moving-average system to assess market trends and sentiment by comparing the closing price of the CSI 300 index with its moving averages[29] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Calculate eight moving averages for the CSI 300 index: 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, and 233 days 2. Count the number of moving averages below the current closing price 3. Assign sentiment values: - Positive sentiment if more than five moving averages are below the closing price - Neutral or negative sentiment otherwise 4. Generate signals based on sentiment values[29] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a clear relationship between sentiment states and index trends, making it a useful tool for market timing[29] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Volume Timing Indicator - **Signal**: Bullish for all indices except North Exchange 50, which remains bearish as of June 27, 2025[21][22] 2. Momentum Sentiment Indicator - **Signal**: Fast line rising, slow line declining, maintaining a bullish view for the CSI 300 index[27] 3. Moving Average Sentiment Indicator - **Signal**: CSI 300 index is in a positive sentiment zone as of June 27, 2025[29] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Cross-Sectional Volatility - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the dispersion of stock returns within an index to assess the alpha environment[34] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the cross-sectional volatility of index constituents weekly 2. Compare the current week's volatility with historical averages to determine the alpha environment[34][38] - **Factor Evaluation**: - Short-term alpha environment improved for CSI 300 and CSI 500 but weakened for CSI 1000 in the past week - Over the past quarter, CSI 300 showed a strong alpha environment, while CSI 500 and CSI 1000 were weaker[34][38] 2. Factor Name: Time-Series Volatility - **Factor Construction Idea**: Tracks the volatility of index constituents over time to evaluate market stability and alpha potential[38] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the time-series volatility of index constituents weekly 2. Compare the current week's volatility with historical averages to assess the alpha environment[38][41] - **Factor Evaluation**: - Short-term alpha environment improved for all indices in the past week - Over the past quarter, CSI 300 and CSI 500 showed strong alpha environments, while CSI 1000 was moderate[38][41] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Cross-Sectional Volatility - **CSI 300**: - Last week: Increased, indicating improved short-term alpha environment - Quarterly average: 1.65%, in the upper range of the past six months[34][38] - **CSI 500**: - Last week: Increased, indicating improved short-term alpha environment - Quarterly average: 1.88%, in the lower range of the past six months[34][38] - **CSI 1000**: - Last week: Decreased, indicating a weaker short-term alpha environment - Quarterly average: 2.23%, in the middle range of the past six months[34][38] 2. Time-Series Volatility - **CSI 300**: - Last week: Increased, indicating improved short-term alpha environment - Quarterly average: 0.52%, in the upper range of the past six months[38][41] - **CSI 500**: - Last week: Increased, indicating improved short-term alpha environment - Quarterly average: 0.44%, in the upper range of the past six months[38][41] - **CSI 1000**: - Last week: Increased, indicating improved short-term alpha environment - Quarterly average: 0.27%, in the middle range of the past six months[38][41]

2025 年 6 月 28 日 策略研究 2025 年上半年市场回顾：蓄势跃升 ——策略周专题（2025 年 6 月第 4 期） 要点 本周 A 股收涨 本周 A 股收涨。本周 A 股主要宽基指数均收涨，创业板指、中证 500 等指数涨幅 靠前，上证 50、上证指数涨幅靠后。从市场风格来看，本周主要风格指数均收涨， 小盘成长、中盘成长涨幅居前，而大盘价值、大盘成长涨幅靠后。分行业来看，申 万一级行业大多收涨，计算机、国防军工等行业涨幅靠前，石油石化、食品饮料等 行业跌幅靠前。 2025 年上半年市场回顾：蓄势跃升 市场上半年呈"N 型"走势，上证指数小幅收涨。从上半年的市场表现来看，受海 内外多重因素交织影响，A 股上半年走势较为震荡，年初至 6 月 27 日，上证指数 上涨 2.2%。分阶段来看，市场上半年的走势可以分为"震荡上行——震荡调整— —震荡上行"三个阶段，整体呈"N 型"走势。年初至 3 月中旬，AI 产业加速发展 与政策暖风共振，A 股市场震荡上行；3 月下旬至 4 月上旬，受特朗普"对等关税" 影响，A 股市场震荡调整；4 月中旬至年中，国内政策积极发力，叠加中美贸易摩 擦阶段性缓和，市场震 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From June 23 to June 27, 2025, the secondary - market prices of China's listed public REITs showed a downward trend overall, with a weighted REITs index return rate of - 1.22%. Compared with other mainstream asset classes, REITs performed averagely [1][11]. - Two new REITs were listed this week, and the project status of two first - issue REITs was updated [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Secondary Market 3.1.1 Price Trends - **At the large - asset level**: The secondary - market prices of China's listed public REITs declined. The returns of China's public REITs were - 1.22%, lower than those of convertible bonds, US stocks, and A - shares, but higher than those of gold and crude oil [11]. - **At the underlying - asset level**: Both property - right and franchise - right REITs' prices fell, with property - right REITs having a smaller decline. Among different underlying - asset types, transportation infrastructure REITs had the largest decline, while the top three in terms of return rate were affordable housing, energy, and ecological environmental protection REITs [16][18]. - **At the single - REIT level**: After excluding the two newly listed REITs this week, 6 REITs rose and 60 REITs fell. The top three in terms of increase were AVIC Jingneng Photovoltaic REIT, China Resources Commercial REIT, and CICC Shandong Expressway REIT; the top three in terms of decline were China Merchants Nanjing Expressway REIT, Hua'an Waigaoqiao REIT, and Ping An Ningbo Expressway REIT [22]. 3.1.2 Trading Volume and Turnover Rate - **At the underlying - asset level**: The total trading volume of public REITs this week was 2.9 billion yuan, and municipal - facility REITs had the highest average daily turnover rate. The top three in terms of trading volume were transportation infrastructure, affordable housing, and industrial - park infrastructure REITs; the top three in terms of average daily turnover rate were municipal - facility, ecological environmental protection, and industrial - park infrastructure REITs [26]. - **At the single - REIT level**: The trading volume and turnover rate of single REITs continued to show differentiation. The top three in terms of trading volume were Guotai Junan Dongjiu New Economy REIT, CICC Puluosi REIT, and China Merchants China Expressway REIT; the top three in terms of trading amount were China Merchants China Expressway REIT, China Resources Commercial REIT, and Guotai Junan Dongjiu New Economy REIT; the top three in terms of turnover rate were Guotai Junan Jinan Energy Heating REIT, Huatai Suzhou Hengtai Rental Housing REIT, and China Resources Commercial REIT [27]. 3.1.3 Main - Force Net Inflow and Block - Trade Situation - **Main - force net inflow situation**: The total main - force net inflow this week was 81.54 million yuan, indicating a decline in market trading enthusiasm. The top three underlying - asset types in terms of main - force net inflow were consumer infrastructure, industrial - park infrastructure, and energy infrastructure REITs. The top three single REITs in terms of main - force net inflow were China Resources Commercial REIT, Penghua Shenzhen Energy REIT, and China Merchants Heda High - tech REIT [31]. - **Block - trade situation**: The total block - trade amount this week reached 789.97 million yuan, a significant increase compared with last week. Tuesday had the highest single - day block - trade amount. The top three single REITs in terms of block - trade amount were Guotai Junan Urban Investment Kuanting Affordable Housing REIT, CITIC Construction Investment National Energy Investment New Energy REIT, and China Resources Commercial REIT [32]. 3.2 Primary Market 3.2.1 Listed Projects - As of June 27, 2025, there were 68 public REITs in China, with a total issuance scale of 177.061 billion yuan. Transportation infrastructure REITs had the largest issuance scale, followed by industrial - park infrastructure REITs. Two new REITs were listed this week: CICC Yizhuang Industrial Park REIT on June 26 and CICC China Green Development Commercial Asset REIT on June 27 [36]. 3.2.2 Projects to be Listed - There were 28 REITs in the pipeline, including 16 first - issue REITs and 12 REITs for expansion. The project status of "Huaxia Anbo Warehouse Logistics Closed - end Infrastructure Securities Investment Fund" was updated to "declared", and that of "Huaxia Zhonghai Commercial Asset Closed - end Infrastructure Securities Investment Fund" was updated to "accepted" [39].