Group 1: Automotive Industry - The delivery data for new forces in November shows a weakening of the year-end peak season effect, with significant purchase discounts from automakers [1] - Recommended stocks include NIO and Xpeng Motors, with a focus on low valuation and performance realization [1] - In the parts sector, recommended stocks are Fuyao Glass for its strong performance and overseas expansion, and Wuxi Zhenhua, Huguang Co., and Bojun Technology for their cheap valuations [1] Group 2: Aerospace and Construction Materials - The commercial aerospace sector is entering a new phase of rapid development, with a three-year action plan recently announced [2] - Investment opportunities are highlighted in the rocket sector with companies like Chaojie Co., Gaohua Technology, and Zhongheng Design, as well as in the satellite sector with firms such as Shaanxi Huada and Shanghai Port [2] Group 3: Real Estate - The sales amount for the top 100 real estate companies in November was 244.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 36.8% and a month-on-month decrease of 11.7% [3] - Cumulative sales for the top 100 companies from January to November reached 3 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 18.8%, indicating a worsening trend [3] - Investment suggestions focus on structural alpha opportunities, recommending China Jinmao, China Merchants Shekou, China Resources Mixc Life, and Greentown Service [3] Group 4: Company Research - Water Sheep Co. has announced an employee stock ownership plan, reflecting confidence in long-term development [4] - The plan involves up to 938 participants and a funding source of no more than 51.04 million yuan, with shares repurchased at 20.46 yuan per share [4] - The repurchased shares will not exceed 2.49 million shares, accounting for 0.64% of the total share capital [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Commercial space is experiencing intensive catalysts, and investment opportunities in the industry are worth attention [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commercial Space Faces Intensive Catalysts, Focus on Industry Investment Opportunities - **Three - year Action Plan for Commercial Space**: On November 25, 2025, the National Space Administration issued the "Action Plan for Promoting the High - quality and Safe Development of Commercial Space (2025 - 2027)", aiming to achieve high - quality development of commercial space by 2027, with significant growth in industry scale and innovation [3]. - **Establishment of the Commercial Space Department**: The National Space Administration has recently established the Commercial Space Department, which will promote the high - quality development of China's commercial space industry and benefit the entire industrial chain [4]. - **Satellite Internet of Things Business Commercial Test**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has launched a two - year commercial test of satellite Internet of Things business, marking the transition of China's satellite Internet industry to the commercial application exploration stage and bringing investment opportunities for the entire industrial chain [4]. - **Recommended Stocks**: In the rocket direction, recommended stocks include Chaojie Co., Ltd., Gaohua Technology, Zhongheng Design, etc.; in the satellite direction, recommended stocks include Shaanxi Huada, Shanghai Harbor, Shanghai Hanxun, etc. [4]. 3.2 Main Covered Company Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report provides earnings forecasts, valuations, and ratings for 28 companies from 2024 to 2027, including China National Building Material Group Corporation, Conch Cement, and China State Construction Engineering Corporation. Most of the investment ratings are maintained [13]. 3.3 Weekly Market Review - **Industry Index Performance**: The building and building materials industries showed certain increases this week. The building index increased by 2.43%, and the building materials index increased by 2.21%. Among them, the garden engineering index had the highest increase of 8.40% in the building sub - sectors, and the ceramic index had the highest increase of 5.60% in the building materials sub - sectors [17][19][22]. - **Stock Performance**: In the building materials industry, Hainan Ruizhe had the highest weekly increase of 22.16%, and *ST Lifang had the highest weekly decrease of 30.00%. In the building industry, Guosheng Technology had the highest weekly increase of 57.69%, and *ST Dongyi had the highest weekly decrease of 22.36% [25]. - **Infrastructure Public REITs Performance**: The average weekly increase of infrastructure public REITs was - 0.13%, the average monthly increase was - 1.23%, the average increase since the beginning of the year was 9.67%, the average 250 - day increase was 14.38%, and the average increase since IPO was 13.06% [28]. 3.4 Aggregate Data Tracking - **Real Estate Data**: It includes new construction, construction, completion, and sales area cumulative year - on - year data, land transaction data, real estate transaction data, social financing data, and infrastructure investment growth data. For example, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of national real estate new construction area continued to decline [31]. - **Eight Major Construction Central Enterprises' New Contract Signing**: The report shows the quarterly new contract signing amounts and year - on - year growth rates of eight major construction central enterprises from 2022Q1 to 2025Q3 [73]. - **Special Bond Issuance**: It includes monthly and cumulative new special bond issuance amounts and replacement special bond issuance amounts from 2022 to 2025 [75][77][79][81]. 3.5 High - frequency Data Tracking - **Cement Data**: It includes national PO42.5 cement average price, East China regional cement price trend, cement - coal price difference index, cement inventory ratio, and cement production monthly year - on - year growth rate [84][85][87][91]. - **Float Glass Data**: It includes glass spot price, glass futures price, and glass inventory [91][92][96]. - **Photovoltaic Glass Data**: It includes glass daily melting volume, soda ash price, 2mm photovoltaic glass price, and photovoltaic glass inventory [98][102][99][104]. - **Glass Fiber Data**: It includes the prices of various types of glass fiber yarns and glass fiber inventory [106][109][110][116]. - **Carbon Fiber Data**: It includes carbon fiber average price, carbon fiber raw silk price, carbon fiber production, carbon fiber inventory, carbon fiber operating rate, carbon fiber gross profit margin, carbon fiber cost, and carbon fiber gross profit [113][117][120][122][124][126][129]. - **Magnesia and Alumina Prices**: It includes the ex - factory tax - included price of large - crystal electro - fused magnesia and alumina price [126][130]. - **Upstream Raw Material Prices**: It includes asphalt price, waste paper price, PVC price, HDPE price, etc. [134][137][135][139]. - **Physical Workload Data**: It includes acrylic acid price, titanium dioxide price, high - machine rental rate, and asphalt average operating rate [141][143][144][146].

2025 年 12 月 2 日 行业研究 年底旺季效应趋弱，小鹏首款超级增程车型 X9 上市 ——新势力 11 月销量跟踪报告 要点 11 月新势力交付数据披露：1）小鹏交付量同比+18.9%/环比 -12.6%至 36,728 辆；2）蔚来交付量同比+147.9%/环比-10.2%至 36,275 辆（NIO 品牌同比 +18.7%/环比+8.9%至 18,393 辆、乐道品牌同比+132.1%/环比-32.0%至 11,794 辆）；3）理想交付量同比-31.9%/环比+4.5%至 33,181 辆。 小鹏首款超级增程车型 X9 上市：11/20 小鹏大七座 MPV X9 超级增程车型正式 上市，上市 1 小时突破 X9 历史全天大定纪录。我们判断，小鹏通过"大电池+ 全域高压平台"打造增程技术差异化，小鹏有望通过陆续推出更多超高性价比的 "一车双能"车型覆盖更多细分市场。 作者 分析师：倪昱婧，CFA 执业证书编号：S0930515090002 021-52523876 niyj@ebscn.com 分析师：邢萍 执业证书编号：S0930525050001 021-52523838 xingping@e ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Insights - The employee stock ownership plan demonstrates the company's confidence in long-term development and aims to enhance employee motivation while aligning the interests of shareholders, the company, and employees [2][3] - The company achieved high-quality growth in the first three quarters of 2025, with revenue reaching 3.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 140 million yuan, up 44% year-on-year [3] - The company continues to advance as a high-end beauty group, with a dual business strategy of proprietary and CP brands, focusing on high-end and global expansion [4] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2025 is projected at 4.98 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 17.53% [5] - Net profit for 2025 is estimated at 241 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 118.75% [5] - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is expected to be 0.62 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 33, 25, and 19 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][5] Business Strategy and Market Position - The company is leveraging multi-brand and multi-channel strategies to drive growth, with significant performance improvements noted across various platforms [3] - The report highlights the successful product upgrades and strong sales momentum for key brands, indicating a robust market presence [3][4] Valuation Metrics - The report provides a detailed forecast of financial metrics, including revenue, net profit, and EPS for the years 2025 to 2027, indicating a positive outlook for the company's financial health [5][10][12]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the sentiment in the market has cooled down, with a slight decrease in the proportion of rising stocks in the CSI 300 index, which remains above 50%, suggesting a cautious outlook for the near term [2] - The new stock fundraising scale has decreased month-on-month, with November 2025 seeing 11 new stocks listed and a total fundraising amount of 10.188 billion yuan, although it still maintains a level above 10 billion yuan [3] - The report predicts negative year-on-year profit growth for industries such as coal, cement, float glass, and ordinary steel, while fuel refining profits are expected to see slight positive growth [4] Group 2 - The inbound tourism market in China is entering a high-quality development phase, driven by visa-free policies and cultural outreach, with significant growth potential for leading OTA companies like Ctrip and Tongcheng Travel [5] - Ctrip is positioned as a leading OTA benefiting from the inbound tourism boom, while Tongcheng Travel is rapidly expanding its international business [5] - The report recommends a "buy" rating for Ctrip Group and maintains a "buy" rating for Tongcheng Travel, while also giving an "accumulate" rating for Zhongxin Tourism [5] Group 3 - The report highlights that China's copper smelting plants are expected to reduce production by over 10% in 2026, which is anticipated to support a bullish outlook for copper prices [6] - The copper market is facing a shortage that is affecting electrolytic copper, with imbalances in inventory potentially leading to increased tightness outside the US [6] - Recommendations include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Western Mining, and Jinchuan Group, with a focus on companies like Tongling Nonferrous Metals and Jiangxi Copper [6] Group 4 - The report tracks high-frequency data on the real estate market, indicating a cumulative transaction of 706,000 new homes across 20 cities, reflecting a 13% decrease year-on-year [7] - In major cities, Beijing saw a 19% decline in new home transactions, while Shanghai and Shenzhen experienced decreases of 5% and 31%, respectively [7] - Conversely, the second-hand housing market showed a slight increase of 3.1% in transactions across 10 cities, with notable increases in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen [7]

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors related to construction, testing, or evaluation[1][2][3] - The report primarily focuses on market performance, fund issuance, ESG products, and ETF tracking without discussing quantitative models or factors[4][6][70] - No relevant quantitative models or factors are mentioned in the provided content[39][56][76]

- The "Market Sentiment Tracking" system includes the "Proportion of Rising Stocks Sentiment Indicator," which calculates the proportion of stocks with positive returns in the past N days within the CSI 300 Index. This indicator helps identify market sentiment by detecting market bottoms when the proportion increases and potential overheating when the proportion is high. However, it has limitations in avoiding market downturns and may miss gains during sustained market rallies[12][13][15] - The "Proportion of Rising Stocks Timing Strategy" applies two smoothing windows (N1=50, N2=35) to the sentiment indicator. When the short-term smoothed line exceeds the long-term smoothed line, it signals a bullish market view. Conversely, when the short-term line falls below the long-term line, it indicates a cautious market outlook[13][15][16] - The "Moving Average Sentiment Indicator" uses an eight-moving-average system (parameters: 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233) to assess the CSI 300 Index's trend. The indicator assigns values of -1, 0, or 1 based on the moving average range, correlating with the index's performance. A bullish signal is generated when the current price exceeds the moving average values for more than five of the eight averages[21][26] - The "PB-ROE-50 Strategy" is based on the PB-ROE pricing model and incorporates factors like SUE and ROE growth to identify stocks with expectation gaps. The strategy selects 50 stocks to form a portfolio, aiming to enhance returns by leveraging expectation differences and additional alpha factors[30][33][34] - The "Institutional Research Strategy" includes "Public Fund Research Stock Selection" and "Private Fund Research Tracking." These strategies utilize institutional research data, such as the number of times a company is researched and its pre-research performance relative to benchmarks, to identify alpha opportunities[37][39][40] - The "Leverage Ratio Negative List" introduces three leverage ratio metrics: traditional, strict, and relaxed. The relaxed leverage ratio includes additional liabilities like other current liabilities and non-current liabilities due within one year, providing more opportunities for short-selling gains compared to traditional metrics[42][43][45] - The "Financial Cost Burden Ratio" measures a company's interest payment pressure using the formula: Financial Cost Burden Ratio = Interest Expense / EBIT. This metric focuses on interest expenses post-2018, offering a clearer view of financial costs and identifying companies with high repayment pressure[46][47][48] - The "Proportion of Rising Stocks Sentiment Indicator" showed a slight month-on-month decline as of November 28, 2025, with a value above 50%, indicating cooling market sentiment[12] - The "Proportion of Rising Stocks Timing Strategy" indicated a cautious market view as the short-term smoothed line was below the long-term smoothed line in the past month[16] - The "Moving Average Sentiment Indicator" suggested the CSI 300 Index was in a non-prosperous sentiment zone as of November 28, 2025[21] - The "PB-ROE-50 Strategy" delivered negative excess returns in November 2025: -0.08% for the CSI 500 pool, -1.09% for the CSI 800 pool, and -3.26% for the entire market pool[30][34] - The "Institutional Research Strategy" showed mixed results in November 2025: the "Public Fund Research Stock Selection" achieved a 3.49% excess return relative to the CSI 800, while the "Private Fund Research Tracking" recorded a -1.36% excess return relative to the CSI 800[37][39]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for Trip.com and Tongcheng Travel, and an "Accumulate" rating for Zhongxin Tourism [3][4]. Core Viewpoints - The Chinese inbound tourism market is entering a golden development period, driven by visa-free policies and cultural exports, with significant growth potential [1][20]. - The inbound tourism market has shown rapid growth since 2023, with inbound visitor numbers expected to increase from 82.03 million in 2023 to 131.90 million in 2024, a year-on-year growth of 60.8% [20]. - The report highlights the importance of optimizing visa-free policies and enhancing cultural outreach as key drivers for the growth of inbound tourism [7][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Potential - The Chinese inbound tourism market has a low base and significant growth potential, with historical growth lagging behind domestic and outbound tourism [19][21]. - Key source countries for inbound tourism include South Korea, Japan, and Russia for short-haul travel, while the United States is the largest long-haul source [19][50]. 2. Policy Impact - The report emphasizes the positive impact of visa-free policies, particularly in Hainan, which has significantly boosted inbound visitor numbers [19][20]. - The continuous release of visa-free policy benefits is expected to inject strong policy-driven momentum into the inbound tourism market [19][20]. 3. Cultural Influence - The integration of cultural exports with tourism is creating a virtuous cycle, enhancing China's global appeal and driving inbound tourism growth [7][19]. - The report cites Turkey as a successful example of how cultural exports can stimulate inbound tourism [7][19]. 4. Company Analysis - Trip.com is actively expanding its inbound tourism market presence and optimizing its supply chain to leverage growth opportunities [2][9]. - Tongcheng Travel is rapidly developing its international business, with significant year-on-year growth in international flight and hotel bookings expected in 2024 [2][9]. - Zhongxin Tourism, with its strong outbound tourism background, is beginning to establish its inbound tourism services, showing potential for future growth [3][9].

- The report tracks industry prosperity signals using quantitative models and indicators, focusing on coal, livestock, steel, structural materials, and fuel refining industries[9] - For the coal industry, the model uses price factors and capacity factors to estimate monthly revenue and profit growth rates. The formula is based on the monthly price index of thermal coal, which determines the sales price for the following month[10][14] - In the livestock industry, the "slaughter coefficient method" is applied to predict the supply-demand gap for pigs six months ahead. The formula is: $ \text{Slaughter Coefficient} = \frac{\text{Quarterly Pig Slaughter}}{\text{Breeding Sow Inventory (lagged 6 months)}} $ This method effectively identifies pig price upcycles based on historical data[15][16] - For the steel industry, the model incorporates comprehensive steel prices and cost indicators (e.g., iron ore, coke, coal, and scrap steel) to predict monthly profit growth and calculate per-ton profit[18][21] - In the structural materials sector, profitability changes in glass and cement manufacturing are tracked using price and cost indicators. These changes are used to design allocation signals. Additionally, manufacturing PMI and real estate sales data are analyzed to assess potential infrastructure investment expectations[24][26] - For the fuel refining and oil services industry, the model uses changes in fuel prices, crude oil prices, and cracking spreads to estimate profit growth and design allocation signals. The model also considers changes in new drilling activities[27][34][35]

- The report introduces a quantitative model for calculating IPO returns based on the formula: **Single account IPO return = min(account size, subscription limit) * winning rate * return rate** **A/B class investors full subscription return = subscription limit * A/B class offline winning rate * return rate** The winning rate considers actual offline IPO results, and the return rate is calculated using the first-day average transaction price relative to the issue price for registered IPOs, or the average transaction price on the opening day for non-registered IPOs[42][43][48] - The model evaluates IPO returns across different market segments (Main Board, ChiNext, STAR Market) and investor classes (A/B). For November 2025, the calculated IPO return rates for a 5-billion-scale account are: **Main Board:** A class: 0.037%, B class: 0.035% **ChiNext:** A class: 0.058%, B class: 0.058% **STAR Market:** A class: 0.046%, B class: 0.045%[43][44][47] - The cumulative IPO return rates for 2025 are: **A class:** 1.716% **B class:** 1.399% These values are based on a 5-billion-scale account participating in all IPOs during the year[49][50][51] - Full subscription returns for November 2025 are calculated as follows: **Main Board:** A class: 19 million yuan, B class: 17.9 million yuan **ChiNext:** A class: 31.3 million yuan, B class: 31.2 million yuan **STAR Market:** A class: 22.8 million yuan, B class: 22.6 million yuan[52][53][55]