Group 1: Global Gas Turbine and Aerospace Engine Demand - The demand for gas turbines is expected to surge, with GE Vernova projecting a backlog of 60GW by the end of 2025, with orders signed until 2028 [3][4] - In Q1 2025, GE Vernova added 7.1GW in new gas turbine orders, a 44.9% year-on-year increase, primarily from heavy-duty gas turbine orders [3][4] - The aerospace engine market is experiencing robust demand, with Boeing reporting a net addition of 300 aircraft orders in May 2025, raising its backlog to 5943 aircraft [5][6] Group 2: High-Temperature Alloy and Chromium Salt Industry - The growth in gas turbine and aerospace engine demand is driving the need for high-temperature alloys, with domestic manufacturers poised to benefit from supply chain constraints [9][13] - Companies like Zhenhua Co. and Sry New Materials are expanding their production capabilities and reporting significant revenue growth from overseas markets [9][10] - The high-temperature alloy sector is rated as "recommended" due to the increasing demand for core components amid supply chain shifts towards China [13] Group 3: Coal Industry Dynamics - In May 2025, China's industrial raw coal production reached 400 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, indicating a recovery in the coal supply [15][18] - The industrial electricity generation in May 2025 showed a positive shift, with coal-fired power generation increasing by 1.2% year-on-year, reversing a previous decline [19][22] - The coal market is witnessing a gradual improvement in supply-demand dynamics, with coal prices stabilizing and inventory levels decreasing [21][23] Group 4: Real Estate and Land Market Factors - The land market's performance is influenced by five key factors, including financing environment, new housing market stability, inventory reduction, sales model changes, and land supply rules [24][27] - The first quarter of 2025 showed a significant recovery in the real estate market, with new housing transactions positively impacting land market activity [29][30] - The land market is entering a "dual concentration" phase, with significant activity concentrated in major cities and among top real estate firms [25][26] Group 5: Company-Specific Developments - Xiaogoods City (600415.SH) is leveraging its position in Yiwu to enhance its global trade capabilities, with a projected revenue growth of 25% from 2025 to 2027 [36][39] - Huayi Group is diversifying its operations across five core business areas, reporting a revenue increase of 9.3% in 2024 [40]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2][8]. Core Insights - The company, Huayi Group, operates under five core diversified business segments and plans to acquire a 60% stake in San Aifu, enhancing its growth potential in the fine fluorochemical sector [5][6][8]. - In 2024, Huayi Group achieved a revenue of 44.6 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.3%, and a net profit of 910 million yuan, up by 5.8% [5]. - The acquisition of San Aifu, a top 20 global fluorochemical company, is expected to strengthen Huayi's position in the fine fluorochemical market and expand its new materials product matrix [6][8]. Financial Performance - The company reported a total market capitalization of approximately 16.09 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of about 14.13 billion yuan as of June 18, 2025 [4]. - The projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 45.83 billion yuan, 47.16 billion yuan, and 48.41 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 938 million yuan, 1.14 billion yuan, and 1.23 billion yuan [8][10]. - The company has a cash dividend plan for 2024, proposing a distribution of 0.18 yuan per share, resulting in a cash dividend ratio of 41.96% [7]. Business Strategy - Huayi Group focuses on a dual-core business model of "manufacturing + services" and aims to integrate its upstream and downstream supply chains [5]. - The company is committed to enhancing its core business in chemicals while aligning with national strategies and regional development initiatives [7].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for Jiuhua Tourism (603199) [1] Core Views - Jiuhua Tourism has a stable flow in its main tourism business, benefiting from the scarcity of scenic resources and strong anti-cyclical characteristics [7] - The company has a clear project reserve and a quantifiable long-term growth momentum [8] - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth of 18% in 2025, 15% in 2026, and 10% in 2027, with net profit growth of 23%, 21%, and 17% respectively [10] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Jiuhua Tourism is based on the core scenic area of Jiuhua Mountain, a national 5A-level Buddhist site, forming a comprehensive tourism service system including cable cars, hotels, passenger transport, and travel agencies [9][12] - The company has a stable and diverse revenue structure, with significant visitor loyalty due to the cultural heritage of Jiuhua Mountain [17] Financial Performance - The core profit source, the cable car business, is expected to maintain a gross margin above 85% from 2023 to 2024, contributing approximately 38.33% of the company's revenue in 2024 [9] - The hotel business, while currently weaker with a gross margin of 16% in 2023, is expected to improve due to location advantages and operational efficiency [9] - Revenue has shown strong recovery post-pandemic, with a 118% year-on-year increase in 2023 and a 25% increase compared to pre-pandemic levels in 2019 [25] Growth Drivers - The opening of the Chihuang High-speed Railway in April 2024 is expected to significantly enhance accessibility to Jiuhua Mountain, boosting overall attractiveness [9] - The Lion Peak cable car project is anticipated to start operations in 2026, potentially contributing an average annual revenue of 1.11 billion yuan and a net profit of 0.5 billion yuan over the next 15 years [60][63] Investment Projections - The company plans to raise up to 500 million yuan through a private placement to fund key projects, including the Lion Peak cable car and hotel renovations [75] - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to rise to 1.53 yuan in 2025 and 1.94 yuan in 2026, reflecting a significant improvement in profitability [75]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - The company has a strong foundation in the Yiwu market, evolving from a street market to the largest global small commodity distribution center, with significant growth in revenue and profit margins [6][9]. - The company benefits from policy advantages and a robust supply chain, particularly through the "1039 model" which simplifies trade for small and micro enterprises [6][30]. - The company is entering a performance acceleration phase, with import business expected to become a new growth driver [6][36]. - Revenue and net profit are projected to grow significantly over the next few years, with a forecast of CNY 197 billion in revenue and CNY 40.31 billion in net profit by 2025 [6][83]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Established in 1982, the company has undergone multiple transformations, now operating a market with over 75,000 shops and serving over 1.15 million market entities globally [6][9]. - The company is primarily state-owned, with significant shares held by the Yiwu State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Office [12]. Financial Performance - The company has shown steady revenue growth, with a CAGR of 28% from 2018 to 2024, and a significant recovery in 2023 after a challenging period due to real estate and pandemic impacts [15]. - The revenue for 2024 is projected at CNY 15.737 billion, with a net profit of CNY 3.074 billion, reflecting a strong recovery trajectory [7]. Business Model and Operations - The company operates multiple business segments, with market operations contributing the majority of revenue, and a notable increase in online business through platforms like Chinagoods [19][56]. - The "1039 model" allows for tax exemptions and simplified customs procedures, enhancing the competitiveness of Yiwu's market [30]. Growth Drivers - The upcoming Global Digital Trade Center is expected to significantly boost the company's market operations, with a planned opening in October 2025 [6][51]. - The company is also enhancing its digital capabilities through AI and the YiwuPay platform, which supports cross-border trade [60][66]. Market Position - Yiwu's export trade has been robust, with a significant portion of exports facilitated through the market procurement trade model, which accounted for 80.1% of total exports in 2024 [32]. - The company is positioned to leverage its strengths in both import and export markets, aiming to achieve a comprehensive trade ecosystem [36][80].

Group 1: Market Overview - The land market is currently concentrated in 35 first- and second-tier cities, with land transfer fees in these cities accounting for 68% of the national total from January to May 2025[5] - The top 100 real estate companies acquired land worth 405.2 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 28.8% and accounting for 53% of the national land transfer fees[30] - In the first five months of 2025, the land transfer fees in Hangzhou reached 99.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 77%, making up 72% of the total for Zhejiang province[23] Group 2: Key Factors Influencing the Land Market - The financing environment is relatively loose, which positively impacts the willingness of real estate companies to acquire land[7] - The new housing market's performance serves as a barometer for the land market, with a 6% year-on-year increase in new housing area signed in major cities during Q1 2025[10] - As of May 2025, the inventory of unsold residential properties stood at 77.4 million square meters, still at a historical high but showing a reduction of 7.15 million square meters over three months[12] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Trends - The transition to a "current housing sales system" is underway, with the proportion of current housing sales rising from 10.4% in 2021 to 32.5% in early 2025[13] - Land supply rules are being optimized, with many cities reducing land supply by over 30% in 2025, adapting to local market conditions[15] - The new sales model emphasizes product quality, compelling real estate companies to enhance their offerings to meet consumer demand[13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the high-temperature alloy industry, indicating a positive outlook based on strong demand and market conditions [1][14]. Core Insights - The global demand for gas turbines and aircraft engines is significantly increasing, leading to a surge in orders and delivery rates from major manufacturers, which in turn boosts the demand for high-temperature alloys and related components [1][14]. - Supply chain constraints are pushing the supply chain towards China, presenting significant export opportunities for domestic high-temperature alloy manufacturers [14]. Summary by Sections Gas Turbines - GE Vernova expects to have a gas turbine order backlog of 60 GW by the end of 2025, with orders signed through 2028. In 2024, GE Vernova added 20.2 GW in new gas turbine orders, a year-on-year increase of 112.6% [3][4]. - In Q1 2025, GE Vernova reported new orders of 7.1 GW, a 44.9% increase year-on-year, primarily from 29 heavy-duty gas turbine orders [3][4]. - The energy equipment segment achieved revenues of $5.708 billion in 2024, a 2.0% increase year-on-year, with Q1 2025 revenues reaching $1.491 billion, a 24.1% increase [3]. Aircraft Engines - Boeing reported a net addition of 300 aircraft orders in May 2025, with a backlog of 5,943 aircraft. Deliveries from January to May 2025 totaled 220 aircraft, a 68% increase year-on-year [5][6]. - GE Aerospace's commercial engine backlog grew significantly, with orders increasing by 141.8% from 2022 to Q1 2025. The service backlog also saw a 22.6% increase [6][8]. - GE Aerospace plans to increase capital expenditures to address supply chain bottlenecks and enhance production capacity [7]. High-Temperature Alloys - Domestic high-temperature alloy manufacturers are positioned to benefit from the increasing global demand for aircraft engines and gas turbines, despite supply chain limitations [9][14]. - Companies like Zhenhua Co. and Sui Rui New Materials are expanding their international presence and reporting significant revenue growth from overseas markets [10][12]. - The report highlights the importance of chromium in high-temperature alloys, with Zhenhua Co. being one of the top five global chromium producers [10][11]. Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the robust growth potential in the high-temperature alloy sector, driven by the increasing demand from the aerospace and energy sectors, and suggests a focus on companies with strong order backlogs and international market strategies [14].

Group 1: Bond Market Insights - In the first half of 2025, institutional behavior showed three major changes: asset management extended duration, banks faced dual pressure on liabilities and performance, and insurance shifted some demand towards equities [3][4]. - The bond market outlook for the second half of 2025 indicates limited compression space for short-term spreads, while long-term demand from banks remains, potentially benefiting the downward trend of interest rates [4][5]. - The continuous reduction in bank convertible bonds is significantly altering market structure and triggering alternative allocation demands, with various funds seeking to fill the gap left by diminishing convertible bond supply [5][6]. Group 2: Motorcycle Industry Analysis - From January to May 2025, the motorcycle industry saw total sales of 6.822 million units, a year-on-year increase of 21%, with significant growth in exports [8][9]. - Specific companies like Chunfeng Power and Qianjiang Motorcycle reported varied sales performance, with Chunfeng Power's fuel motorcycle sales increasing by 23% year-on-year, while Qianjiang Motorcycle experienced a 6% decline in total sales [9][10]. - The overall outlook for motorcycle exports remains positive, maintaining a "recommended" rating for the motorcycle industry [15]. Group 3: Aluminum Industry Overview - The aluminum market is currently experiencing a tight supply situation, with domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory dropping to 460,000 tons, a decrease of 44,000 tons week-on-week [17][18]. - Despite a seasonal slowdown in demand, the low inventory levels are expected to provide some support for aluminum prices, while the overall aluminum industry is projected to maintain high prosperity due to limited long-term supply growth [22]. - The domestic aluminum oxide market is showing signs of recovery, with production capacity increasing and a slight rise in operating rates, although the market remains relatively loose [21][22]. Group 4: Alternative Investment Strategies - A民间预测指标 has emerged as a significant indicator for asset price movements, particularly in relation to the U.S. recession expectations, influencing various markets including stocks, bonds, and commodities [25]. - The indicator has shown strong correlations with market trends, suggesting that investors should integrate it with traditional economic data for more comprehensive asset allocation strategies [25]. Group 5: Gold Trading Strategy - The gold trading strategy is structured into three goals: determining long-term trends, analyzing strategic asset allocation value, and managing short-term volatility to control maximum drawdown [27]. - The strategy anticipates potential maximum drawdowns of 15%-20% during specific economic conditions, emphasizing the importance of market context in gold investment [27][28].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The bank convertible bond market is experiencing a significant supply contraction, with the balance dropping from nearly 300 billion yuan in 2023 to about 150 billion yuan currently, and the market share declining from 38.97% to 22.64%. This is due to factors such as long - term net - breaking valuation in the banking sector and stricter regulatory reviews. The continuous reduction in supply has changed the market structure and triggered demand for alternative assets. Four types of assets are expected to replace bank convertible bonds, and the overall market impact is controllable [5][7][33]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bank Convertible Bond Status 3.1.1 Supply Side Since 2023, the balance of bank convertible bonds has been continuously declining and recently accelerated its contraction. The scale has shrunk from the peak of nearly 300 billion yuan in 2023 to about 150 billion yuan, and the proportion in the whole market has dropped from 38.97% to 22.64%. The issuance peak was from 2019 - 2022, and after 2022, new issuance stopped due to factors like net - breaking valuation and stricter regulations [7][9]. 3.1.2 Demand Side The decline in bank convertible bond balance has led to a decrease in fund allocation. The allocation of bank convertible bonds by funds has a high correlation with the balance change. Among them, first - tier bond funds show more resilience, while second - tier bond funds, convertible bond funds, and partial - debt hybrid funds continue to reduce their positions. In the past, some funds have used financial bonds, high - grade corporate bonds, or low - price bank convertible bonds as substitutes [14][16]. 3.2 Subsequent Selection of Bottom - Position Assets 3.2.1 Long - Duration Positive - Equity Dividend Assets Long - duration and high - rated utility - type convertible bonds can be used as high - quality bottom - position assets after the exit of bank convertible bonds. They have stable cash flows, continuous dividend policies, and high sensitivity to interest rate changes, providing reliable returns and price elasticity in a declining interest rate environment. Relevant convertible bonds include Yushui Convertible Bonds, Guiran Convertible Bonds, etc. [20]. 3.2.2 Relatively Low - Price Bank Convertible Bonds Relatively low - price and high - cost - effective bank convertible bonds have low call risk and long - term stability. Their underlying stocks are generally below the call price, and the credit risk is generally controllable due to high ratings and local government support. Examples are Ziyin Convertible Bonds and Qingnong Convertible Bonds [22][23]. 3.2.3 Convertible Bonds with 2 - Year Remaining Maturity and YTM Protection Convertible bonds with a remaining maturity of about 2 years and a yield between 0% - 8% can effectively reduce interest rate risk, have a balance between defense and income elasticity, and can provide a stable safety margin in a volatile market [24]. 3.2.4 Other State - Owned and Central - Enterprise Convertible Bonds State - owned and central - enterprise convertible bonds with a positive YTM have low credit risk, high yields, and stable inventories. They can meet the comprehensive allocation needs of institutions for low - volatility bottom - position assets, credit substitution, and potential conversion elasticity [28]. 3.3 Summary The continuous exit of bank convertible bonds is expected to have relatively limited overall market impact. The market has long - term expectations for this trend, and there are sufficient alternative assets. Institutions can also adjust their strategies. Four types of assets are expected to replace bank convertible bonds in the future [33][34].

Core Insights - The report outlines a "three-step" strategy for trading gold, focusing on long-term trends, strategic asset allocation, and short-term volatility management [6][9][11] - It emphasizes that the weakening of US dollar credit and the economic cycle in the US being in a "recession to recovery" phase could lead to a maximum drawdown of 15%-20% for gold prices [6][11] - If both long-term and strategic views on gold are bullish, short-term negative factors could result in a maximum drawdown of 0%-5% within one month, while multiple negative factors could lead to a 5%-10% drawdown over 100 days [6][11] Group 1: Trading Strategy - The trading strategy consists of three goals: determining the long-term trend of gold, analyzing its strategic allocation value, and managing short-term disturbances to control maximum drawdown [6][11] - The report suggests that the long-term trend of gold prices is influenced by US dollar credit and inflation expectations, with a bullish outlook if dollar credit weakens and inflation remains above 2% [11][14] - The asset allocation perspective indicates that stagflation is favorable for gold, while recovery phases may exert downward pressure on gold prices [11][20] Group 2: Market Conditions and Impacts - The report identifies that periods of "overheating to stagflation" are generally bullish for gold, while "recession to recovery" phases tend to be bearish [20][21] - It highlights that unexpected crises can significantly impact gold prices, with fiscal policies leading to different price movements compared to monetary policies [23][24] - The analysis shows that short-term fiscal expansion may lead to a temporary decline in gold prices, reflecting reduced short-term debt repayment pressures [24][25] Group 3: Risk Management and Investment Timing - The report provides a framework for assessing the safety margin for investing in gold, suggesting that investors should consider maximum drawdown levels before entering positions [30][31] - It outlines specific scenarios for maximum drawdowns based on various economic conditions, indicating that drawdowns could exceed 20% under aggressive rate hikes or significant fiscal expansion [32][35] - The report advises investors to wait for drawdowns of around 15% to consider building or increasing positions in gold [35][43]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the motorcycle industry [1] Core Insights - The motorcycle export market remains robust, with a year-on-year growth of 27% in the first five months of 2025, indicating a strong demand for motorcycles [10][16] - The overall motorcycle sales from January to May 2025 reached 6.822 million units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 21% [16] - The report highlights significant growth in the sales of motorcycles with engine displacement greater than 250cc, which saw a 50% increase year-on-year [16] Industry Data Update - **Overall Sales**: In the first five months of 2025, total motorcycle sales (domestic and export) were 6.822 million units, with domestic sales at 1.846 million units (down 1.3% year-on-year) and exports at 4.976 million units (up 27% year-on-year) [16][17] - **Sales by Displacement**: - Motorcycles with displacement between 150cc and 250cc sold 800,000 units (up 17% year-on-year) - Motorcycles with displacement greater than 250cc sold 399,000 units (up 50% year-on-year) [16][17] Company Data Update - **Chunfeng Power**: - Total sales of fuel motorcycles reached 118,200 units (up 23% year-on-year) in the first five months of 2025, with electric motorcycle sales skyrocketing to 93,000 units (up 2000% year-on-year) [26] - **Qianjiang Motorcycle**: - Total sales were 168,000 units (down 6% year-on-year) in the same period, with sales of motorcycles over 250cc increasing by 8% [35] - **Longxin General**: - Total sales reached 649,000 units (up 16% year-on-year), with significant growth in the 150cc to 250cc segment (up 48% year-on-year) [9]